{
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "analytics_version": "senate-lab-1.0.0",
  "generated_at": "2026-11-03T23:16:01.334455+00:00",
  "as_of": "2026-11-03",
  "source_retrieved_at": "2026-11-03T23:16:01.334455+00:00",
  "model_version": "baseline-1.2.0",
  "status": "experimental",
  "source_hashes": {
    "polls": "5f5c49017e7e48b1c5720d36b429faf1317b3766ab4f516dfcecc82bd2f00010",
    "historical": "d4492e286046f73b111cf5706ee02be4c305897898317818afd06c0ac8a464e0",
    "presidential": "9936410a6dd4ecc8be7fe202c6dff5b5f8fee59d88f35ab542ed12879941dcb7"
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "name": "The New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/polls/senate.csv",
      "license": "CC BY 4.0; filtered and aggregated by DutyStation"
    },
    {
      "name": "MIT Election Data and Science Lab",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/PEJ5QU",
      "file_id": 13887039
    },
    {
      "name": "MEDSL presidential results 1976\u20132024",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/42MVDX",
      "file_id": 13887042
    }
  ],
  "forecast_sha256": "f94394593c920f6127fb2ccf4cde17083c2c312cd6e497f78b7e87e503f6b409",
  "methodology": {
    "summary": "Exact replay of the existing Senate forecast with shared national and race-specific errors; model inputs and calibration are unchanged.",
    "positive_shift": "A positive shift adds the same number of percentage points to every opposition (Democratic or independent) margin relative to the Republican. It is a hypothetical sensitivity, not an estimate of polling bias.",
    "common_error": "Each draw uses one common normal national error for every race plus independent normal race errors; the same draws are reused at every shift.",
    "intervals": "80% and 95% margin intervals are central normal-model predictive intervals, not poll sampling margins of error and not validated full-model coverage.",
    "control": "Democrats need 51 seats. Republicans control at 50 under the current Republican vice president. Independents are separate and their caucus is not assumed; otherwise control is unresolved.",
    "forcing": "Pinned winners replace only their race's result in each shared draw. Other races retain their original draws. This is a forced-outcome scenario, not Bayesian conditioning on an observed result.",
    "conditional": "Conditional diagnostics retain only baseline draws in which the named side wins; they include shared-error association and are not causal effects. Fewer than 100 matching draws are flagged as unstable.",
    "pivotal": "Control leverage is the fraction of baseline draws in which switching only this race's winner changes D/R/unresolved chamber control. It measures simulated control sensitivity, not a race's civic importance.",
    "poll_weights": "Weight shares reconstruct the existing recency/sample/partisan/pollster-cap rules. A poll's normalized weight is its share of the polling average; forecast_mean_weight also includes the polling-versus-historical blend. No pollster accuracy grades or house-effect corrections are claimed.",
    "validation_scope": "Historical results-only baseline; NOT full polling or chamber validation",
    "limitations": [
      "Experimental baseline with no incumbency, candidate-quality or explicit generic-ballot adjustment",
      "Historical Democratic results are weak priors for changed coalitions and independent challengers",
      "Qualifying poll coverage is uneven; selected matchup and ranked-choice rounds require care",
      "Scenario shifts and Gaussian correlation are assumptions, not observed election outcomes",
      "Monte Carlo samples have finite simulation noise even when a sampled probability is zero or one"
    ],
    "exact_published_baseline_replayed": true
  },
  "baseline": {
    "shift_pp": 0.0,
    "control": {
      "D": 0.6299333333333333,
      "R": 0.3318333333333333,
      "unresolved": 0.038233333333333334
    },
    "expected": {
      "D": 51.4013,
      "R": 48.0592,
      "I": 0.5395
    },
    "distribution": {
      "D": [
        {
          "seats": 39,
          "probability": 0.00013333333333333334
        },
        {
          "seats": 40,
          "probability": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "seats": 41,
          "probability": 0.0007666666666666667
        },
        {
          "seats": 42,
          "probability": 0.0032333333333333333
        },
        {
          "seats": 43,
          "probability": 0.006733333333333333
        },
        {
          "seats": 44,
          "probability": 0.013033333333333333
        },
        {
          "seats": 45,
          "probability": 0.021633333333333334
        },
        {
          "seats": 46,
          "probability": 0.033633333333333335
        },
        {
          "seats": 47,
          "probability": 0.047
        },
        {
          "seats": 48,
          "probability": 0.06333333333333334
        },
        {
          "seats": 49,
          "probability": 0.0819
        },
        {
          "seats": 50,
          "probability": 0.09826666666666667
        },
        {
          "seats": 51,
          "probability": 0.10843333333333334
        },
        {
          "seats": 52,
          "probability": 0.11886666666666666
        },
        {
          "seats": 53,
          "probability": 0.12123333333333333
        },
        {
          "seats": 54,
          "probability": 0.10596666666666667
        },
        {
          "seats": 55,
          "probability": 0.0819
        },
        {
          "seats": 56,
          "probability": 0.055266666666666665
        },
        {
          "seats": 57,
          "probability": 0.026566666666666666
        },
        {
          "seats": 58,
          "probability": 0.009233333333333333
        },
        {
          "seats": 59,
          "probability": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "seats": 60,
          "probability": 0.0002666666666666667
        }
      ],
      "R": [
        {
          "seats": 37,
          "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
        },
        {
          "seats": 38,
          "probability": 0.0003333333333333333
        },
        {
          "seats": 39,
          "probability": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "seats": 40,
          "probability": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "seats": 41,
          "probability": 0.012533333333333334
        },
        {
          "seats": 42,
          "probability": 0.025933333333333333
        },
        {
          "seats": 43,
          "probability": 0.04756666666666667
        },
        {
          "seats": 44,
          "probability": 0.0681
        },
        {
          "seats": 45,
          "probability": 0.08846666666666667
        },
        {
          "seats": 46,
          "probability": 0.10503333333333334
        },
        {
          "seats": 47,
          "probability": 0.1098
        },
        {
          "seats": 48,
          "probability": 0.10483333333333333
        },
        {
          "seats": 49,
          "probability": 0.09953333333333333
        },
        {
          "seats": 50,
          "probability": 0.08686666666666666
        },
        {
          "seats": 51,
          "probability": 0.07166666666666667
        },
        {
          "seats": 52,
          "probability": 0.0577
        },
        {
          "seats": 53,
          "probability": 0.0432
        },
        {
          "seats": 54,
          "probability": 0.030066666666666665
        },
        {
          "seats": 55,
          "probability": 0.019633333333333332
        },
        {
          "seats": 56,
          "probability": 0.012266666666666667
        },
        {
          "seats": 57,
          "probability": 0.006066666666666666
        },
        {
          "seats": 58,
          "probability": 0.0031333333333333335
        },
        {
          "seats": 59,
          "probability": 0.0007666666666666667
        },
        {
          "seats": 60,
          "probability": 0.0003333333333333333
        },
        {
          "seats": 61,
          "probability": 0.00013333333333333334
        }
      ],
      "I": [
        {
          "seats": 0,
          "probability": 0.5387
        },
        {
          "seats": 1,
          "probability": 0.3894
        },
        {
          "seats": 2,
          "probability": 0.06576666666666667
        },
        {
          "seats": 3,
          "probability": 0.005966666666666667
        },
        {
          "seats": 4,
          "probability": 0.00016666666666666666
        }
      ]
    },
    "interval80": {
      "D": [
        47,
        55
      ],
      "R": [
        44,
        53
      ],
      "I": [
        0,
        1
      ]
    }
  },
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "shift_pp": -6.0,
      "control": {
        "D": 0.07396666666666667,
        "R": 0.9121,
        "unresolved": 0.013933333333333334
      },
      "expected": {
        "D": 45.541533333333334,
        "R": 54.30736666666667,
        "I": 0.1511
      },
      "distribution": {
        "D": [
          {
            "seats": 36,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 37,
            "probability": 0.0003
          },
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 0.0021
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.008366666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.025666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.05396666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.08366666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.1087
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.1236
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.1251
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.11096666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.09836666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.07776666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.060566666666666664
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.04686666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.0308
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.0197
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.0126
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.006533333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.0026666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.0012666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.00036666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          }
        ],
        "R": [
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.0003
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.0010333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.0018666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.004266666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.0099
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.0138
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.021933333333333332
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.03476666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.0492
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.0612
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.0783
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.0977
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.10896666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.12043333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.12193333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.10413333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.08146666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.05293333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.0251
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 0.0083
          },
          {
            "seats": 62,
            "probability": 0.0021
          },
          {
            "seats": 63,
            "probability": 0.0003
          },
          {
            "seats": 64,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          }
        ],
        "I": [
          {
            "seats": 0,
            "probability": 0.8538333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 1,
            "probability": 0.14123333333333332
          },
          {
            "seats": 2,
            "probability": 0.004933333333333333
          }
        ]
      },
      "interval80": {
        "D": [
          42,
          50
        ],
        "R": [
          50,
          58
        ],
        "I": [
          0,
          1
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "shift_pp": -5.5,
      "control": {
        "D": 0.09716666666666667,
        "R": 0.8862666666666666,
        "unresolved": 0.016566666666666667
      },
      "expected": {
        "D": 46.0023,
        "R": 53.8271,
        "I": 0.1706
      },
      "distribution": {
        "D": [
          {
            "seats": 36,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 37,
            "probability": 0.00023333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 0.0013
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.006033333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.019666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.042866666666666664
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.07253333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.09313333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.11483333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.122
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.11573333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.10096666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.08746666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.071
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.05503333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.03913333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.0254
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.0167
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.0096
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.004
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.0017
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.0005
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.00013333333333333334
          }
        ],
        "R": [
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.00013333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.0006666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.0011333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.002766666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.007233333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.012266666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.0183
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.0293
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.041933333333333336
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.058633333333333336
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.0711
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.08433333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.10146666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.11193333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.1182
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.1126
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.08853333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.07093333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.0416
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.0194
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 0.005966666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 62,
            "probability": 0.0013
          },
          {
            "seats": 63,
            "probability": 0.00023333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 64,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          }
        ],
        "I": [
          {
            "seats": 0,
            "probability": 0.8356666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 1,
            "probability": 0.15813333333333332
          },
          {
            "seats": 2,
            "probability": 0.0061333333333333335
          },
          {
            "seats": 3,
            "probability": 6.666666666666667e-05
          }
        ]
      },
      "interval80": {
        "D": [
          42,
          50
        ],
        "R": [
          49,
          58
        ],
        "I": [
          0,
          1
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "shift_pp": -5.0,
      "control": {
        "D": 0.12553333333333333,
        "R": 0.8534666666666667,
        "unresolved": 0.021
      },
      "expected": {
        "D": 46.4789,
        "R": 53.3284,
        "I": 0.1927
      },
      "distribution": {
        "D": [
          {
            "seats": 36,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 37,
            "probability": 0.00016666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 0.0009666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.004233333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.0145
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.033666666666666664
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.06023333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.0829
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.10073333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.11393333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.11803333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.10836666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.09033333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.08143333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.06493333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.04786666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.033466666666666665
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.022333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.012566666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.0059
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.0024666666666666665
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.0006333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.00023333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 6.666666666666667e-05
          }
        ],
        "R": [
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 6.666666666666667e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.0002
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.0008666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.0019666666666666665
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.0038666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.009533333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.016466666666666668
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.025233333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.0371
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.05123333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.06673333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.0795
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.08906666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.10606666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.11466666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.10926666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.09773333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.07943333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.0591
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.03233333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.014266666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 0.0041333333333333335
          },
          {
            "seats": 62,
            "probability": 0.0009666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 63,
            "probability": 0.00016666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 64,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          }
        ],
        "I": [
          {
            "seats": 0,
            "probability": 0.8155666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 1,
            "probability": 0.17633333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 2,
            "probability": 0.007933333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 3,
            "probability": 0.00016666666666666666
          }
        ]
      },
      "interval80": {
        "D": [
          42,
          51
        ],
        "R": [
          49,
          58
        ],
        "I": [
          0,
          1
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "shift_pp": -4.5,
      "control": {
        "D": 0.15953333333333333,
        "R": 0.8156,
        "unresolved": 0.024866666666666665
      },
      "expected": {
        "D": 46.96146666666667,
        "R": 52.8203,
        "I": 0.21823333333333333
      },
      "distribution": {
        "D": [
          {
            "seats": 36,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 37,
            "probability": 6.666666666666667e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 0.0007666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.003
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.0105
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.0254
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.049633333333333335
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.07126666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.0899
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.1056
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.11046666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.11363333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.09993333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.0855
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.07476666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.05773333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.04346666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.027966666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.0169
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.008533333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.003766666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.0008
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.0002666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.0001
          }
        ],
        "R": [
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 6.666666666666667e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.00046666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.001
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.0029333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.006366666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.012733333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.020866666666666665
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.0323
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.0467
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.06096666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.0734
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.08576666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.09866666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.10743333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.10813333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.10006666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.0869
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.0687
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.04806666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.024333333333333332
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.010266666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 0.003
          },
          {
            "seats": 62,
            "probability": 0.0007666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 63,
            "probability": 6.666666666666667e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 64,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          }
        ],
        "I": [
          {
            "seats": 0,
            "probability": 0.793
          },
          {
            "seats": 1,
            "probability": 0.19613333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 2,
            "probability": 0.0105
          },
          {
            "seats": 3,
            "probability": 0.00036666666666666667
          }
        ]
      },
      "interval80": {
        "D": [
          43,
          52
        ],
        "R": [
          48,
          57
        ],
        "I": [
          0,
          1
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "shift_pp": -4.0,
      "control": {
        "D": 0.19896666666666665,
        "R": 0.7731666666666667,
        "unresolved": 0.027866666666666668
      },
      "expected": {
        "D": 47.45486666666667,
        "R": 52.3019,
        "I": 0.24323333333333333
      },
      "distribution": {
        "D": [
          {
            "seats": 37,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 0.0006333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.0021666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.007566666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.019566666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.0379
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.0606
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.07983333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.09653333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.103
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.11173333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.1053
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.0949
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.08126666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.0667
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.05416666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.036333333333333336
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.0225
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.0119
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.0054666666666666665
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.0014333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.0003
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.00016666666666666666
          }
        ],
        "R": [
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.0002
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.00046666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.0016333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.0042
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.009933333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.0163
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.02723333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.041466666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.05656666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.06883333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.07946666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.0946
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.1011
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.1065
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.09916666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.09246666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.07603333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.05806666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.03666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.018833333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.007466666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 0.0021333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 62,
            "probability": 0.0006333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 63,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          }
        ],
        "I": [
          {
            "seats": 0,
            "probability": 0.7704333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 1,
            "probability": 0.2164
          },
          {
            "seats": 2,
            "probability": 0.012666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 3,
            "probability": 0.0005
          }
        ]
      },
      "interval80": {
        "D": [
          43,
          52
        ],
        "R": [
          47,
          57
        ],
        "I": [
          0,
          1
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "shift_pp": -3.5,
      "control": {
        "D": 0.24153333333333332,
        "R": 0.7278333333333333,
        "unresolved": 0.030633333333333332
      },
      "expected": {
        "D": 47.95283333333333,
        "R": 51.77353333333333,
        "I": 0.27363333333333334
      },
      "distribution": {
        "D": [
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 0.00036666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.0015333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.005166666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.014433333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.029166666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.05003333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.0689
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.08733333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.0953
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.10716666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.10736666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.10173333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.08996666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.07593333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.06283333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.046
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.0296
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.0165
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.007633333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.0023
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.0005333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.0002
          }
        ],
        "R": [
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.0003333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.0008
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.0026333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.0058
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.0143
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.021133333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.035833333333333335
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.0502
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.0654
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.07573333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.0874
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.1
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.1031
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.10066666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.09173333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.0824
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.06596666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.04756666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.028366666666666665
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.013733333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.005033333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 0.0015
          },
          {
            "seats": 62,
            "probability": 0.00036666666666666667
          }
        ],
        "I": [
          {
            "seats": 0,
            "probability": 0.7443666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 1,
            "probability": 0.23826666666666665
          },
          {
            "seats": 2,
            "probability": 0.016733333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 3,
            "probability": 0.0006333333333333333
          }
        ]
      },
      "interval80": {
        "D": [
          43,
          53
        ],
        "R": [
          47,
          56
        ],
        "I": [
          0,
          1
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "shift_pp": -3.0,
      "control": {
        "D": 0.29046666666666665,
        "R": 0.6753333333333333,
        "unresolved": 0.0342
      },
      "expected": {
        "D": 48.46306666666667,
        "R": 51.231366666666666,
        "I": 0.30556666666666665
      },
      "distribution": {
        "D": [
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 0.0002
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.0009666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.0033666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.010166666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.023066666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.03863333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.059
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.07663333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.08716666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.1002
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.10803333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.10343333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.09866666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.08576666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.0728
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.05536666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.038533333333333336
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.0231
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.010633333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.0031
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.0009666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.00016666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          }
        ],
        "R": [
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.0003333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.0015
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.003266666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.009266666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.01863333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.0289
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.043666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.05996666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.0743
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.0848
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.09513333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.09986666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.10096666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.0945
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.08346666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.0734
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.0547
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.0366
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.022766666666666668
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.009533333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.003266666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 0.0009333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 62,
            "probability": 0.0002
          }
        ],
        "I": [
          {
            "seats": 0,
            "probability": 0.7173666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 1,
            "probability": 0.2606
          },
          {
            "seats": 2,
            "probability": 0.021133333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 3,
            "probability": 0.0009
          }
        ]
      },
      "interval80": {
        "D": [
          44,
          53
        ],
        "R": [
          46,
          56
        ],
        "I": [
          0,
          1
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "shift_pp": -2.5,
      "control": {
        "D": 0.34123333333333333,
        "R": 0.6215333333333334,
        "unresolved": 0.037233333333333334
      },
      "expected": {
        "D": 48.958666666666666,
        "R": 50.70446666666667,
        "I": 0.33686666666666665
      },
      "distribution": {
        "D": [
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 0.0001
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.0006666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.0024666666666666665
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.0071333333333333335
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.017233333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.030366666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.04806666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.0671
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.07856666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.09313333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.10266666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.1048
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.10646666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.09273333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.0831
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.06733333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.046533333333333336
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.0308
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.014333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.004566666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.0014333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.0003
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.0001
          }
        ],
        "R": [
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.0002
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.0006
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.0019666666666666665
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.004533333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.013
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.024266666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.037066666666666664
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.0523
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.07086666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.0822
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.09146666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.1009
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.09826666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.09673333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.08743333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.07496666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.063
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.0448
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.028633333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.017066666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.0066
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.0024
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 0.0006333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 62,
            "probability": 0.0001
          }
        ],
        "I": [
          {
            "seats": 0,
            "probability": 0.6916333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 1,
            "probability": 0.281
          },
          {
            "seats": 2,
            "probability": 0.026233333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 3,
            "probability": 0.0011333333333333334
          }
        ]
      },
      "interval80": {
        "D": [
          44,
          53
        ],
        "R": [
          46,
          56
        ],
        "I": [
          0,
          1
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "shift_pp": -2.0,
      "control": {
        "D": 0.3981,
        "R": 0.5633666666666667,
        "unresolved": 0.038533333333333336
      },
      "expected": {
        "D": 49.4577,
        "R": 50.1689,
        "I": 0.3734
      },
      "distribution": {
        "D": [
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.0005333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.0018
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.0044666666666666665
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.012433333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.023233333333333335
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.0392
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.0569
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.0695
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.08526666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.0976
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.10223333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.1087
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.10113333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.0934
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.07773333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.05686666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.0398
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.0196
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.007233333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.0017333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.0005
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.0001
          }
        ],
        "R": [
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.0003
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.0008
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.0026666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.0077
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.017133333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.0319
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.0458
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.06213333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.08056666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.09046666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.09713333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.10073333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.09663333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.09143333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.07846666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.0662
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.052533333333333335
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.036866666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.022033333333333332
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.012033333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.0041333333333333335
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.0017666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 0.0005
          },
          {
            "seats": 62,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          }
        ],
        "I": [
          {
            "seats": 0,
            "probability": 0.6620666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 1,
            "probability": 0.3041
          },
          {
            "seats": 2,
            "probability": 0.0322
          },
          {
            "seats": 3,
            "probability": 0.0016333333333333334
          }
        ]
      },
      "interval80": {
        "D": [
          45,
          54
        ],
        "R": [
          45,
          55
        ],
        "I": [
          0,
          1
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "shift_pp": -1.5,
      "control": {
        "D": 0.4568333333333333,
        "R": 0.5037,
        "unresolved": 0.039466666666666664
      },
      "expected": {
        "D": 49.9541,
        "R": 49.63636666666667,
        "I": 0.40953333333333336
      },
      "distribution": {
        "D": [
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.0005
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.0012
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.003
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.0082
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.018866666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.0302
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.045233333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.061
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.07626666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.09186666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.09806666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.10873333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.10693333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.10393333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.0885
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.068
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.049
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.0267
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.009966666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.0029333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.0007666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.0001
          }
        ],
        "R": [
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 6.666666666666667e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.00046666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.0013666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.004066666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.0108
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.022266666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.04013333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.055266666666666665
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.07383333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.0886
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.0977
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.10173333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.0997
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.09173333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.08406666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.07096666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.05656666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.0419
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.02896666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.017266666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.008
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.0028333333333333335
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.0012
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 0.00046666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 62,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          }
        ],
        "I": [
          {
            "seats": 0,
            "probability": 0.6339666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 1,
            "probability": 0.3248666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 2,
            "probability": 0.0389
          },
          {
            "seats": 3,
            "probability": 0.0022
          },
          {
            "seats": 4,
            "probability": 6.666666666666667e-05
          }
        ]
      },
      "interval80": {
        "D": [
          45,
          54
        ],
        "R": [
          45,
          55
        ],
        "I": [
          0,
          1
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "shift_pp": -1.0,
      "control": {
        "D": 0.5153333333333333,
        "R": 0.44456666666666667,
        "unresolved": 0.0401
      },
      "expected": {
        "D": 50.4479,
        "R": 49.10053333333333,
        "I": 0.45156666666666667
      },
      "distribution": {
        "D": [
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.0002666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.0007666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.0024333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.005833333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.013566666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.0233
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.036166666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.051133333333333336
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.06556666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.083
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.0951
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.1075
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.11036666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.11113333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.09973333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.07883333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.059866666666666665
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.035633333333333336
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.014366666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.004166666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.0011333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.0001
          }
        ],
        "R": [
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 0.0001
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.0007333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.0018
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.0063
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.0146
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.030033333333333332
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.04903333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.0662
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.08456666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.09566666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.10243333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.10396666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.09833333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.08573333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.07576666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.06076666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.046733333333333335
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.034133333333333335
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.0218
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.0122
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.0058
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.002266666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.0007333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 0.0002666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 62,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          }
        ],
        "I": [
          {
            "seats": 0,
            "probability": 0.6014
          },
          {
            "seats": 1,
            "probability": 0.34896666666666665
          },
          {
            "seats": 2,
            "probability": 0.0464
          },
          {
            "seats": 3,
            "probability": 0.0031333333333333335
          },
          {
            "seats": 4,
            "probability": 0.0001
          }
        ]
      },
      "interval80": {
        "D": [
          46,
          55
        ],
        "R": [
          44,
          54
        ],
        "I": [
          0,
          1
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "shift_pp": -0.5,
      "control": {
        "D": 0.5743666666666667,
        "R": 0.38576666666666665,
        "unresolved": 0.03986666666666667
      },
      "expected": {
        "D": 50.930566666666664,
        "R": 48.57496666666667,
        "I": 0.49446666666666667
      },
      "distribution": {
        "D": [
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.00016666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.0005666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.0015333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.0043
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.0097
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.017966666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.028533333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.04173333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.054766666666666665
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.07516666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.08746666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.1037
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.11116666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.11623333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.1112
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.09273333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.07063333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.04393333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.020533333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.006166666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.0016
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.00016666666666666666
          }
        ],
        "R": [
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 0.0002666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.0009333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.0027333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.0092
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.0205
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.037233333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.0582
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.07816666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.0941
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.10486666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.1049
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.10313333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.09176666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.07873333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.0691
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.0496
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.037766666666666664
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.027133333333333332
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.0165
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.008733333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.004266666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.0014666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.0005
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 0.00016666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 62,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          }
        ],
        "I": [
          {
            "seats": 0,
            "probability": 0.5703666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 1,
            "probability": 0.36923333333333336
          },
          {
            "seats": 2,
            "probability": 0.056133333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 3,
            "probability": 0.0041
          },
          {
            "seats": 4,
            "probability": 0.00016666666666666666
          }
        ]
      },
      "interval80": {
        "D": [
          46,
          55
        ],
        "R": [
          44,
          53
        ],
        "I": [
          0,
          1
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "shift_pp": 0.0,
      "control": {
        "D": 0.6299333333333333,
        "R": 0.3318333333333333,
        "unresolved": 0.038233333333333334
      },
      "expected": {
        "D": 51.4013,
        "R": 48.0592,
        "I": 0.5395
      },
      "distribution": {
        "D": [
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.00013333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.0004
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.0007666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.0032333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.006733333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.013033333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.021633333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.033633333333333335
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.047
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.06333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.0819
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.09826666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.10843333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.11886666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.12123333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.10596666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.0819
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.055266666666666665
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.026566666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.009233333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.0022
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.0002666666666666667
          }
        ],
        "R": [
          {
            "seats": 37,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 0.0003333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.0014
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.0046
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.012533333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.025933333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.04756666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.0681
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.08846666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.10503333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.1098
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.10483333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.09953333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.08686666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.07166666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.0577
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.0432
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.030066666666666665
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.019633333333333332
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.012266666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.006066666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.0031333333333333335
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.0007666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.0003333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 0.00013333333333333334
          }
        ],
        "I": [
          {
            "seats": 0,
            "probability": 0.5387
          },
          {
            "seats": 1,
            "probability": 0.3894
          },
          {
            "seats": 2,
            "probability": 0.06576666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 3,
            "probability": 0.005966666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 4,
            "probability": 0.00016666666666666666
          }
        ]
      },
      "interval80": {
        "D": [
          47,
          55
        ],
        "R": [
          44,
          53
        ],
        "I": [
          0,
          1
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "shift_pp": 0.5,
      "control": {
        "D": 0.6856333333333333,
        "R": 0.2802,
        "unresolved": 0.034166666666666665
      },
      "expected": {
        "D": 51.8571,
        "R": 47.55533333333333,
        "I": 0.5875666666666667
      },
      "distribution": {
        "D": [
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.0001
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.00023333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.0005
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.0022333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.004433333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.009933333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.0174
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.02493333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.039
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.0542
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.0715
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.0899
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.10703333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.1211
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.1252
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.1199
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.09333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.06743333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.0355
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.012666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.003033333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.0004333333333333333
          }
        ],
        "R": [
          {
            "seats": 37,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 0.0005
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.0020666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.006566666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.016666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.033666666666666664
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.05923333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.0777
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.09993333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.1136
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.11063333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.10526666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.09393333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.07953333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.0637
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.04703333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.035666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.022433333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.015766666666666665
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.009233333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.003833333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.0021666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.0005666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.00016666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 0.0001
          }
        ],
        "I": [
          {
            "seats": 0,
            "probability": 0.5056666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 1,
            "probability": 0.4093
          },
          {
            "seats": 2,
            "probability": 0.07723333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 3,
            "probability": 0.0074
          },
          {
            "seats": 4,
            "probability": 0.0004
          }
        ]
      },
      "interval80": {
        "D": [
          48,
          56
        ],
        "R": [
          43,
          52
        ],
        "I": [
          0,
          1
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "shift_pp": 1.0,
      "control": {
        "D": 0.7352,
        "R": 0.23223333333333335,
        "unresolved": 0.03256666666666667
      },
      "expected": {
        "D": 52.3088,
        "R": 47.053733333333334,
        "I": 0.6374666666666666
      },
      "distribution": {
        "D": [
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.0001
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.00016666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.0002666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.0016
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.0029666666666666665
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.0066
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.0133
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.0195
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.030366666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.04526666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.06116666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.0835
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.1003
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.1193
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.1288
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.12863333333333332
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.11
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.07986666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.046766666666666665
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.0165
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.0043
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.0007333333333333333
          }
        ],
        "R": [
          {
            "seats": 37,
            "probability": 0.0001
          },
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 0.0010333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.0029333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.008933333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.021833333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.04446666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.0688
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.09
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.11113333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.11753333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.11326666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.10046666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.08726666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.0715
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.05296666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.04066666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.026966666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.017566666666666668
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.011966666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.005733333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.002766666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.0016
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.0003
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.0001
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 0.0001
          }
        ],
        "I": [
          {
            "seats": 0,
            "probability": 0.4735666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 1,
            "probability": 0.4261333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 2,
            "probability": 0.09
          },
          {
            "seats": 3,
            "probability": 0.009866666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 4,
            "probability": 0.0004333333333333333
          }
        ]
      },
      "interval80": {
        "D": [
          48,
          56
        ],
        "R": [
          43,
          52
        ],
        "I": [
          0,
          2
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "shift_pp": 1.5,
      "control": {
        "D": 0.7812666666666667,
        "R": 0.1899,
        "unresolved": 0.028833333333333332
      },
      "expected": {
        "D": 52.74046666666667,
        "R": 46.56583333333333,
        "I": 0.6937
      },
      "distribution": {
        "D": [
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 6.666666666666667e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.0001
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.0002666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.0006
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.0021
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.0046
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.009333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.0158
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.022533333333333332
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.037
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.0532
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.07313333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.09406666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.11516666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.13086666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.13453333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.1256
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.09276666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.05806666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.022966666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.006
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.0011666666666666668
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 62,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          }
        ],
        "R": [
          {
            "seats": 37,
            "probability": 0.00023333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 0.0014333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.0044666666666666665
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.012933333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.029066666666666668
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.053533333333333336
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.08116666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.10316666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.11776666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.12026666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.1105
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.09593333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.07963333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.0629
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.04516666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.0325
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.020033333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.013966666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.008233333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.0041
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.002
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.0006333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.00023333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 6.666666666666667e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 6.666666666666667e-05
          }
        ],
        "I": [
          {
            "seats": 0,
            "probability": 0.44026666666666664
          },
          {
            "seats": 1,
            "probability": 0.4398
          },
          {
            "seats": 2,
            "probability": 0.10643333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 3,
            "probability": 0.012966666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 4,
            "probability": 0.0005333333333333334
          }
        ]
      },
      "interval80": {
        "D": [
          49,
          56
        ],
        "R": [
          42,
          51
        ],
        "I": [
          0,
          2
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "shift_pp": 2.0,
      "control": {
        "D": 0.8218666666666666,
        "R": 0.1526,
        "unresolved": 0.025533333333333335
      },
      "expected": {
        "D": 53.1551,
        "R": 46.09846666666667,
        "I": 0.7464333333333333
      },
      "distribution": {
        "D": [
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.00023333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.00036666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.0012
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.0037
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.006566666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.010666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.018133333333333335
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.029833333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.0443
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.06306666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.0855
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.10823333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.13053333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.1407
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.13653333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.10966666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.06996666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.030266666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.008566666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.0016666666666666668
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 0.0002
          },
          {
            "seats": 62,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          }
        ],
        "R": [
          {
            "seats": 36,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 37,
            "probability": 0.0005
          },
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 0.0022
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.0064
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.016666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.0382
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.0647
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.0924
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.11456666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.12393333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.12036666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.10733333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.0892
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.0709
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.0528
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.037566666666666665
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.0261
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.015933333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.0094
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.0058
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.0032
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.0011666666666666668
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.0004
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.00016666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          }
        ],
        "I": [
          {
            "seats": 0,
            "probability": 0.4105666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 1,
            "probability": 0.4506
          },
          {
            "seats": 2,
            "probability": 0.12166666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 3,
            "probability": 0.016166666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 4,
            "probability": 0.001
          }
        ]
      },
      "interval80": {
        "D": [
          49,
          57
        ],
        "R": [
          42,
          50
        ],
        "I": [
          0,
          2
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "shift_pp": 2.5,
      "control": {
        "D": 0.8579333333333333,
        "R": 0.1197,
        "unresolved": 0.022366666666666667
      },
      "expected": {
        "D": 53.56003333333334,
        "R": 45.63466666666667,
        "I": 0.8053
      },
      "distribution": {
        "D": [
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.00016666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.0002666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.0005666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.0026333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.004333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.008366666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.013
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.02266666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.0355
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.0545
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.0751
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.1017
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.1276
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.14286666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.14916666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.12223333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.08503333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.03916666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.0125
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.0022333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 0.0003
          },
          {
            "seats": 62,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          }
        ],
        "R": [
          {
            "seats": 36,
            "probability": 0.00013333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 37,
            "probability": 0.0008333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 0.0028333333333333335
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.009333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.022866666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.047766666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.07523333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.10543333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.1238
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.1281
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.118
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.10413333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.08073333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.0611
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.04423333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.0303
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.0194
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.011533333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.007266666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.0035666666666666668
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.0023666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.0006333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.00016666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.00016666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          }
        ],
        "I": [
          {
            "seats": 0,
            "probability": 0.3784666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 1,
            "probability": 0.4608
          },
          {
            "seats": 2,
            "probability": 0.13923333333333332
          },
          {
            "seats": 3,
            "probability": 0.019966666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 4,
            "probability": 0.0015333333333333334
          }
        ]
      },
      "interval80": {
        "D": [
          50,
          57
        ],
        "R": [
          42,
          50
        ],
        "I": [
          0,
          2
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "shift_pp": 3.0,
      "control": {
        "D": 0.8888666666666667,
        "R": 0.09276666666666666,
        "unresolved": 0.018366666666666667
      },
      "expected": {
        "D": 53.950066666666665,
        "R": 45.18383333333333,
        "I": 0.8661
      },
      "distribution": {
        "D": [
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 6.666666666666667e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.00016666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.0005333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.0015666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.0030666666666666668
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.005933333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.009966666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.016466666666666668
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.027633333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.04566666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.06423333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.09406666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.12153333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.14333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.1553
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.14026666666666668
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.0986
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.051333333333333335
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.0164
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.0033333333333333335
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 0.0004333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 62,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          }
        ],
        "R": [
          {
            "seats": 35,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 36,
            "probability": 0.00023333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 37,
            "probability": 0.0011333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 0.004233333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.012333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.030833333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.057633333333333335
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.08913333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.11803333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.1307
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.129
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.11243333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.0987
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.0724
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.0504
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.037233333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.0223
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.014533333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.009
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.005
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.0024666666666666665
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.0014333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.0005666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.0001
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 6.666666666666667e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          }
        ],
        "I": [
          {
            "seats": 0,
            "probability": 0.3478333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 1,
            "probability": 0.46696666666666664
          },
          {
            "seats": 2,
            "probability": 0.15833333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 3,
            "probability": 0.025
          },
          {
            "seats": 4,
            "probability": 0.0018666666666666666
          }
        ]
      },
      "interval80": {
        "D": [
          50,
          57
        ],
        "R": [
          41,
          49
        ],
        "I": [
          0,
          2
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "shift_pp": 3.5,
      "control": {
        "D": 0.9154333333333333,
        "R": 0.06993333333333333,
        "unresolved": 0.014633333333333333
      },
      "expected": {
        "D": 54.314433333333334,
        "R": 44.7572,
        "I": 0.9283666666666667
      },
      "distribution": {
        "D": [
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 6.666666666666667e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.0001
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.0002
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.0011333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.0023666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.0037333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.007033333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.0128
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.020866666666666665
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.0362
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.05723333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.08376666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.1129
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.14116666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.16166666666666665
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.15266666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.1151
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.06363333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.022
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.004533333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 0.0007
          },
          {
            "seats": 62,
            "probability": 6.666666666666667e-05
          }
        ],
        "R": [
          {
            "seats": 35,
            "probability": 6.666666666666667e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 36,
            "probability": 0.00036666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 37,
            "probability": 0.0016666666666666668
          },
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 0.005966666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.0166
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.03913333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.06943333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.10126666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.1286
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.13616666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.12836666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.10783333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.08666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.06546666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.042466666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.029
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.017233333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.0112
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.005933333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.0031333333333333335
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.0020666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.0009666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.0002
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 6.666666666666667e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 6.666666666666667e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          }
        ],
        "I": [
          {
            "seats": 0,
            "probability": 0.31783333333333336
          },
          {
            "seats": 1,
            "probability": 0.47213333333333335
          },
          {
            "seats": 2,
            "probability": 0.1765
          },
          {
            "seats": 3,
            "probability": 0.0309
          },
          {
            "seats": 4,
            "probability": 0.0026333333333333334
          }
        ]
      },
      "interval80": {
        "D": [
          51,
          57
        ],
        "R": [
          41,
          49
        ],
        "I": [
          0,
          2
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "shift_pp": 4.0,
      "control": {
        "D": 0.9362,
        "R": 0.052066666666666664,
        "unresolved": 0.011733333333333333
      },
      "expected": {
        "D": 54.666333333333334,
        "R": 44.338433333333334,
        "I": 0.9952333333333333
      },
      "distribution": {
        "D": [
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 6.666666666666667e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 6.666666666666667e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.0002
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.0005
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.0012
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.003266666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.005266666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.0096
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.015266666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.028333333333333332
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.0473
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.0736
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.10396666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.1364
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.16573333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.163
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.1319
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.07796666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.028566666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.006733333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 0.0009666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 62,
            "probability": 6.666666666666667e-05
          }
        ],
        "R": [
          {
            "seats": 35,
            "probability": 6.666666666666667e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 36,
            "probability": 0.0005666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 37,
            "probability": 0.0024333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 0.0086
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.022333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.0487
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.0811
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.11536666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.13616666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.1394
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.12393333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.10296666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.0759
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.056633333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.03376666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.022366666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.012633333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.007966666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.004666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.0025666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.0011333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.0004333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.00013333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 6.666666666666667e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 6.666666666666667e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          }
        ],
        "I": [
          {
            "seats": 0,
            "probability": 0.2867
          },
          {
            "seats": 1,
            "probability": 0.4763
          },
          {
            "seats": 2,
            "probability": 0.1954
          },
          {
            "seats": 3,
            "probability": 0.038266666666666664
          },
          {
            "seats": 4,
            "probability": 0.0033333333333333335
          }
        ]
      },
      "interval80": {
        "D": [
          51,
          58
        ],
        "R": [
          41,
          48
        ],
        "I": [
          0,
          2
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "shift_pp": 4.5,
      "control": {
        "D": 0.9520333333333333,
        "R": 0.038566666666666666,
        "unresolved": 0.0094
      },
      "expected": {
        "D": 55.00593333333333,
        "R": 43.928733333333334,
        "I": 1.0653333333333332
      },
      "distribution": {
        "D": [
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.00013333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.00023333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.0008666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.0021
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.0033666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.006833333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.0128
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.021566666666666668
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.03843333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.060866666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.09443333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.13216666666666665
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.1642
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.1721
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.14756666666666668
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.09383333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.0374
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.0093
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 0.0016
          },
          {
            "seats": 62,
            "probability": 0.00013333333333333334
          }
        ],
        "R": [
          {
            "seats": 35,
            "probability": 0.00016666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 36,
            "probability": 0.0009333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 37,
            "probability": 0.0033333333333333335
          },
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 0.012333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.029
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.05993333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.0952
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.12653333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.14086666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.1403
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.1199
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.0933
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.06783333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.04443333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.027366666666666668
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.016633333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.0109
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.005266666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.0029
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.0018666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.0005666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.0002666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.0001
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          }
        ],
        "I": [
          {
            "seats": 0,
            "probability": 0.25816666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 1,
            "probability": 0.4740666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 2,
            "probability": 0.2164
          },
          {
            "seats": 3,
            "probability": 0.047
          },
          {
            "seats": 4,
            "probability": 0.004366666666666666
          }
        ]
      },
      "interval80": {
        "D": [
          52,
          58
        ],
        "R": [
          40,
          48
        ],
        "I": [
          0,
          2
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "shift_pp": 5.0,
      "control": {
        "D": 0.9651666666666666,
        "R": 0.027633333333333333,
        "unresolved": 0.0072
      },
      "expected": {
        "D": 55.32803333333333,
        "R": 43.5345,
        "I": 1.1374666666666666
      },
      "distribution": {
        "D": [
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 6.666666666666667e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.00023333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.0004333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.0013
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.0023
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.0047666666666666664
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.009433333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.016266666666666665
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.029733333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.0525
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.08253333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.1258
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.1595
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.17936666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.16296666666666668
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.1099
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.047466666666666664
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.012733333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 0.0023
          },
          {
            "seats": 62,
            "probability": 0.00036666666666666667
          }
        ],
        "R": [
          {
            "seats": 35,
            "probability": 0.0003
          },
          {
            "seats": 36,
            "probability": 0.0016
          },
          {
            "seats": 37,
            "probability": 0.0047
          },
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 0.0167
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.037366666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.0717
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.1076
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.1377
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.14453333333333335
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.13716666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.11366666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.08443333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.0584
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.03506666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.021433333333333332
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.012566666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.007966666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.0036
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.0017
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.0012333333333333332
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.00023333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.0002666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          }
        ],
        "I": [
          {
            "seats": 0,
            "probability": 0.23116666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 1,
            "probability": 0.46936666666666665
          },
          {
            "seats": 2,
            "probability": 0.2363
          },
          {
            "seats": 3,
            "probability": 0.057166666666666664
          },
          {
            "seats": 4,
            "probability": 0.006
          }
        ]
      },
      "interval80": {
        "D": [
          52,
          58
        ],
        "R": [
          40,
          47
        ],
        "I": [
          0,
          2
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "shift_pp": 5.5,
      "control": {
        "D": 0.9745666666666667,
        "R": 0.019233333333333335,
        "unresolved": 0.0062
      },
      "expected": {
        "D": 55.636,
        "R": 43.15286666666667,
        "I": 1.2111333333333334
      },
      "distribution": {
        "D": [
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.0001
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.0002
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.0006333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.0018666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.0031333333333333335
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.006166666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.013266666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.02266666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.0432
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.07236666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.1131
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.1569
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.1824
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.17563333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.12873333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.058133333333333335
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.017633333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 0.0032
          },
          {
            "seats": 62,
            "probability": 0.0006
          }
        ],
        "R": [
          {
            "seats": 34,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 35,
            "probability": 0.0005
          },
          {
            "seats": 36,
            "probability": 0.002266666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 37,
            "probability": 0.007533333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 0.021233333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.04686666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.0854
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.1196
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.1447
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.14793333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.1328
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.104
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.07466666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.048433333333333335
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.0279
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.0169
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.0098
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.0046
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.0026
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.0013666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.0005666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.00016666666666666666
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.0001
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          }
        ],
        "I": [
          {
            "seats": 0,
            "probability": 0.20703333333333335
          },
          {
            "seats": 1,
            "probability": 0.4590666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 2,
            "probability": 0.2574666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 3,
            "probability": 0.0686
          },
          {
            "seats": 4,
            "probability": 0.007833333333333333
          }
        ]
      },
      "interval80": {
        "D": [
          53,
          58
        ],
        "R": [
          40,
          47
        ],
        "I": [
          0,
          2
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "shift_pp": 6.0,
      "control": {
        "D": 0.9819333333333333,
        "R": 0.0126,
        "unresolved": 0.0054666666666666665
      },
      "expected": {
        "D": 55.93163333333333,
        "R": 42.7793,
        "I": 1.2890666666666666
      },
      "distribution": {
        "D": [
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.0001
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.0001
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.0003333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.0010666666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.0021333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.003966666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.010333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.017066666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.035
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.06066666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.1023
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.14956666666666665
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 0.182
          },
          {
            "seats": 57,
            "probability": 0.1893
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 0.1458
          },
          {
            "seats": 59,
            "probability": 0.07206666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 60,
            "probability": 0.023
          },
          {
            "seats": 61,
            "probability": 0.004433333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 62,
            "probability": 0.0007333333333333333
          }
        ],
        "R": [
          {
            "seats": 34,
            "probability": 6.666666666666667e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 35,
            "probability": 0.0008
          },
          {
            "seats": 36,
            "probability": 0.0032
          },
          {
            "seats": 37,
            "probability": 0.0103
          },
          {
            "seats": 38,
            "probability": 0.0282
          },
          {
            "seats": 39,
            "probability": 0.05676666666666667
          },
          {
            "seats": 40,
            "probability": 0.09853333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 41,
            "probability": 0.1323
          },
          {
            "seats": 42,
            "probability": 0.1515
          },
          {
            "seats": 43,
            "probability": 0.1494
          },
          {
            "seats": 44,
            "probability": 0.1255
          },
          {
            "seats": 45,
            "probability": 0.0928
          },
          {
            "seats": 46,
            "probability": 0.062233333333333335
          },
          {
            "seats": 47,
            "probability": 0.039466666666666664
          },
          {
            "seats": 48,
            "probability": 0.0229
          },
          {
            "seats": 49,
            "probability": 0.013433333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 50,
            "probability": 0.0064333333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 51,
            "probability": 0.0031
          },
          {
            "seats": 52,
            "probability": 0.0019
          },
          {
            "seats": 53,
            "probability": 0.0006333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 54,
            "probability": 0.0003333333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 55,
            "probability": 0.0001
          },
          {
            "seats": 56,
            "probability": 6.666666666666667e-05
          },
          {
            "seats": 58,
            "probability": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          }
        ],
        "I": [
          {
            "seats": 0,
            "probability": 0.18233333333333332
          },
          {
            "seats": 1,
            "probability": 0.4474
          },
          {
            "seats": 2,
            "probability": 0.27963333333333334
          },
          {
            "seats": 3,
            "probability": 0.08013333333333333
          },
          {
            "seats": 4,
            "probability": 0.0105
          }
        ]
      },
      "interval80": {
        "D": [
          53,
          59
        ],
        "R": [
          40,
          46
        ],
        "I": [
          0,
          2
        ]
      }
    }
  ],
  "races": [
    {
      "state": "AL",
      "state_name": "Alabama",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Everett Wess",
      "republican_name": "Barry Moore",
      "margin": -15.702822979348833,
      "sigma": 4.897922481747521,
      "win_probability": 0.0006729300714388153,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.0005666666666666667,
      "interval80": [
        -21.979763203748465,
        -9.4258827549492
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -25.302574642643016,
        -6.103071316054651
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 4,
        "unique_pollsters": 4,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-24",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-09-25",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 10,
        "partisan_poll_count": 1,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 3.353098015067708,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-and-polls",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.9148773183901351,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.08512268160986491,
        "poll_average": -14.491772663531592,
        "poll_sigma": 5.120713487512331,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": -15.702822979348833,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 3.353098015067708,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": null
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.9148773183901351,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.08512268160986491,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "AL",
          "poll_id": "87c6b869-73ff-4c58-b40e-35f7f60e6cc6",
          "question_id": "cf8f809f-e5d0-4b42-a1be-f4f47c2106aa",
          "pollster": "Blueprint Polling",
          "start_date": "10/22/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-24",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 695,
          "opposition_name": "Everett Wess",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b76881c2-0d66-4cc9-adc7-3083b70a4575",
          "republican_name": "Barry Moore",
          "opposition_pct": 39.5,
          "republican_pct": 47.8,
          "margin": -8.299999999999997,
          "url": "https://www.chismstrategies.com/field-notes/new-alabama-poll-governors-race-a-toss-up-as-tuberville-edges-jones-48--45",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 10,
          "raw_weight": 0.7736938774422157,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7736938774422157,
          "normalized_weight": 0.3856981106107865,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.3528664531437381
        },
        {
          "state": "AL",
          "poll_id": "840876f8-96ce-40df-a6d9-3a06397c11e6",
          "question_id": "911ea3d3-ea5b-4c7f-96e5-37491e20c750",
          "pollster": "Cygnal Political",
          "start_date": "10/16/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-17",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 500,
          "opposition_name": "Everett Wess",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b76881c2-0d66-4cc9-adc7-3083b70a4575",
          "republican_name": "Barry Moore",
          "opposition_pct": 35.0,
          "republican_pct": 49.8,
          "margin": -14.799999999999997,
          "url": "https://www.wbrc.com/2026/10/20/tuberville-leads-jones-51-40-percent-exclusive-gray-alabama-daily-news-poll/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 17,
          "raw_weight": 0.520856907551799,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.520856907551799,
          "normalized_weight": 0.25965505350184187,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.23755251905421212
        },
        {
          "state": "AL",
          "poll_id": "308785d0-efaa-45ee-8e64-c6f0526eea06",
          "question_id": "d82624ce-880c-44cf-a7c7-b2173977ae10",
          "pollster": "The Alabama Poll",
          "start_date": "10/15/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-16",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 600,
          "opposition_name": "Everett Wess",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b76881c2-0d66-4cc9-adc7-3083b70a4575",
          "republican_name": "Barry Moore",
          "opposition_pct": 35.0,
          "republican_pct": 56.0,
          "margin": -21.0,
          "url": "https://www.al.com/politics/2026/10/gop-faces-election-downturn-but-theres-no-blue-wave-for-alabama-democrats-poll-shows.html",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 18,
          "raw_weight": 0.5520447568369061,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5520447568369061,
          "normalized_weight": 0.2752026685134111,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.25177667938335874
        },
        {
          "state": "AL",
          "poll_id": "080dacda-e25f-4b72-a30a-a7a1bbd9cc52",
          "question_id": "5d0de754-d698-49c4-976e-1ff9a47b6233",
          "pollster": "RMG Research",
          "start_date": "9/21/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-25",
          "population": "rv",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "opposition_name": "Everett Wess",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b76881c2-0d66-4cc9-adc7-3083b70a4575",
          "republican_name": "Barry Moore",
          "opposition_pct": 33.0,
          "republican_pct": 54.0,
          "margin": -21.0,
          "url": "https://www.al.com/politics/2026/09/new-poll-offers-some-good-news-for-alabamas-republican-politicians.html",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 39,
          "raw_weight": 0.15936159448225462,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.15936159448225462,
          "normalized_weight": 0.07944416737396061,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.07268166680882614
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.12343333333333334,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.7282,
            "R": 0.24496666666666667,
            "unresolved": 0.026833333333333334
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.6299333333333333,
            "R": 0.3318333333333333,
            "unresolved": 0.038233333333333334
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.7282,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.6299333333333333,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 17,
            "reliable_sample": false,
            "control": {
              "D": 1.0,
              "R": 0.0,
              "unresolved": 0.0
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 29983,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.6297235099889937,
              "R": 0.3320214788380082,
              "unresolved": 0.03825501117299803
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 1.0,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.6297235099889937,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 17,
          "republican": 29983
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "AK",
      "state_name": "Alaska",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Mary Peltola",
      "republican_name": "Dan Sullivan",
      "margin": 0.652941432179472,
      "sigma": 4.652905903236345,
      "win_probability": 0.5558002964277385,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.5545,
      "interval80": [
        -5.309997412444781,
        6.615880276803725
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -8.466586561617575,
        9.772469425976517
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 13,
        "unique_pollsters": 7,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-05",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 2,
        "partisan_poll_count": 0,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 9,
        "effective_polls": 5.403537558954934,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-and-polls",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.9231807572915512,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.07681924270844875,
        "poll_average": 1.621176445044217,
        "poll_sigma": 4.842625650024987,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": 0.6529414321794713,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 5.403537558954934,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": null
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.9231807572915512,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.07681924270844875,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "AK",
          "poll_id": "dd778e11-d751-4a94-9ece-1dd896021d10",
          "question_id": "f0e2c2b6-a0bf-4373-8593-72f4920bb5d3",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "start_date": "10/31/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1200,
          "opposition_name": "Mary Peltola",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "c722c2a0-c058-4d21-b6bd-b42aa2b68d62",
          "republican_name": "Dan Sullivan",
          "opposition_pct": 50.1,
          "republican_pct": 49.9,
          "margin": 0.20000000000000284,
          "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-final-alaska-survey-race-tied-in-first-round-48-peltola-48-sullivan-tied-in-ranked-choice-round/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": true,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 1.3238704073559722,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6739607691732418,
          "normalized_weight": 0.15334387988415932,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.14156411915748288
        },
        {
          "state": "AK",
          "poll_id": "a0d99ae7-a6c2-430d-ad8f-92e91d659b66",
          "question_id": "7c25d9d7-929b-44bf-a6ac-d2a471c0fb18",
          "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
          "start_date": "10/23/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-30",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 610,
          "opposition_name": "Mary Peltola",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "c722c2a0-c058-4d21-b6bd-b42aa2b68d62",
          "republican_name": "Dan Sullivan",
          "opposition_pct": 47.6,
          "republican_pct": 46.2,
          "margin": 1.3999999999999986,
          "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/11/01/polls/times-siena-poll-crosstabs.html",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 4,
          "raw_weight": 0.883588887933423,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7412824103437113,
          "normalized_weight": 0.1686613317737,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.15570489599264592
        },
        {
          "state": "AK",
          "poll_id": "0c4baea9-f768-41f4-8f0b-49246ff20b7f",
          "question_id": "3a290d14-add4-4aa7-9ef8-97a17e55c38a",
          "pollster": "Alaska Survey Research",
          "start_date": "10/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-29",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1326,
          "opposition_name": "Mary Peltola",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "c722c2a0-c058-4d21-b6bd-b42aa2b68d62",
          "republican_name": "Dan Sullivan",
          "opposition_pct": 50.8,
          "republican_pct": 49.2,
          "margin": 1.5999999999999943,
          "url": "https://x.com/The_Real_ASR/status/2116291676176331181",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": true,
          "age_days": 5,
          "raw_weight": 1.2604404391627335,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5421457580281925,
          "normalized_weight": 0.12335248252025757,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.11387663822684423
        },
        {
          "state": "AK",
          "poll_id": "fa49898d-55a4-4393-962f-1cd6cfe135c3",
          "question_id": "5ec77c8e-2ee7-497f-b8d6-232456c26a58",
          "pollster": "Data for Progress",
          "start_date": "10/8/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-16",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 671,
          "opposition_name": "Mary Peltola",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "c722c2a0-c058-4d21-b6bd-b42aa2b68d62",
          "republican_name": "Dan Sullivan",
          "opposition_pct": 51.0,
          "republican_pct": 49.0,
          "margin": 2.0,
          "url": "https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/20/every-statewide-race-in-alaska-is-close-as-7-in-10-voters-worry-about-affording-gas-and-food",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": true,
          "age_days": 18,
          "raw_weight": 0.5837943994432753,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5837943994432753,
          "normalized_weight": 0.13282864872845893,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.12262485252315217
        },
        {
          "state": "AK",
          "poll_id": "807a27fa-a7e2-46cb-a2b0-3c8a8bb5022e",
          "question_id": "67e33a5f-fd80-41ff-8e52-2a5a38e078fb",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "start_date": "10/9/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-10",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1200,
          "opposition_name": "Mary Peltola",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "c722c2a0-c058-4d21-b6bd-b42aa2b68d62",
          "republican_name": "Dan Sullivan",
          "opposition_pct": 50.1,
          "republican_pct": 48.0,
          "margin": 2.1000000000000014,
          "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-u-s-senate-surveys-alaska-ranks-choice-peltola-50-sullivan-48-kansas-hamilton-48-marshall-47-michigan-el-sayed-48-rogers-46/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": true,
          "age_days": 24,
          "raw_weight": 0.6404433448821364,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.32603923082675834,
          "normalized_weight": 0.07418253841503734,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06848389199180377
        },
        {
          "state": "AK",
          "poll_id": "e5216fed-b2a6-4670-9dae-7707e2912184",
          "question_id": "e5857108-5dd4-49bb-909a-996cc4a5d06f",
          "pollster": "Alaska Survey Research",
          "start_date": "10/1/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-03",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1512,
          "opposition_name": "Mary Peltola",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "c722c2a0-c058-4d21-b6bd-b42aa2b68d62",
          "republican_name": "Dan Sullivan",
          "opposition_pct": 51.0,
          "republican_pct": 49.0,
          "margin": 2.0,
          "url": "https://x.com/The_Real_ASR/status/2107851752464884167",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": true,
          "age_days": 31,
          "raw_weight": 0.5705880314615911,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2454236402031368,
          "normalized_weight": 0.055840361821370435,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05155074751368698
        },
        {
          "state": "AK",
          "poll_id": "c115983e-1ed7-42e1-bd8c-92692471a053",
          "question_id": "bc693063-594f-4e5f-9f21-23d577e1dae8",
          "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
          "start_date": "9/24/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 504,
          "opposition_name": "Mary Peltola",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "c722c2a0-c058-4d21-b6bd-b42aa2b68d62",
          "republican_name": "Dan Sullivan",
          "opposition_pct": 50.07,
          "republican_pct": 43.07,
          "margin": 7.0,
          "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/03/polls/times-siena-alaska-poll-crosstabs.html",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 33,
          "raw_weight": 0.30838447552967096,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.25871758965628866,
          "normalized_weight": 0.05886508652549664,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05434311515664068
        },
        {
          "state": "AK",
          "poll_id": "74dcee91-0001-4995-8872-9b54884e9f9e",
          "question_id": "a02492a1-cd7d-4ced-a6b3-0e4b6f095dc5",
          "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
          "start_date": "9/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-30",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 758,
          "opposition_name": "Mary Peltola",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "c722c2a0-c058-4d21-b6bd-b42aa2b68d62",
          "republican_name": "Dan Sullivan",
          "opposition_pct": 46.2,
          "republican_pct": 46.5,
          "margin": -0.29999999999999716,
          "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/f/quantus-insights-survey-sullivan-peltola-deadlocked-in-alaska",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 34,
          "raw_weight": 0.3659123602503667,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3659123602503667,
          "normalized_weight": 0.08325472873917127,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.07685916352553081
        },
        {
          "state": "AK",
          "poll_id": "16224059-2ccc-4343-9243-33991199136c",
          "question_id": "e72992f4-9ddb-464c-9990-4620acd555df",
          "pollster": "co/efficient",
          "start_date": "9/14/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-17",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 799,
          "opposition_name": "Mary Peltola",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "c722c2a0-c058-4d21-b6bd-b42aa2b68d62",
          "republican_name": "Dan Sullivan",
          "opposition_pct": 46.0,
          "republican_pct": 49.0,
          "margin": -3.0,
          "url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/ak/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 47,
          "raw_weight": 0.2446042308568077,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2446042308568077,
          "normalized_weight": 0.055653924547679284,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.051378632210173414
        },
        {
          "state": "AK",
          "poll_id": "2661bff9-27ee-49ab-8779-d67703b361f8",
          "question_id": "fe534c15-60d1-40fa-965f-4f48f2b70363",
          "pollster": "Alaska Survey Research",
          "start_date": "9/10/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-12",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1352,
          "opposition_name": "Mary Peltola",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "c722c2a0-c058-4d21-b6bd-b42aa2b68d62",
          "republican_name": "Dan Sullivan",
          "opposition_pct": 51.9,
          "republican_pct": 48.1,
          "margin": 3.799999999999997,
          "url": "https://x.com/The_Real_ASR/status/2102418467635011721",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": true,
          "age_days": 52,
          "raw_weight": 0.2697771189088224,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.11603762945485925,
          "normalized_weight": 0.026401626217793486,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.024373473285471063
        },
        {
          "state": "AK",
          "poll_id": "a1d3551f-cc1f-40ee-8d08-c7fdc1872796",
          "question_id": "3d5ad689-e945-4d8c-a1c2-a2270f0b5f9f",
          "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research",
          "start_date": "9/8/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-11",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "opposition_name": "Mary Peltola",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "c722c2a0-c058-4d21-b6bd-b42aa2b68d62",
          "republican_name": "Dan Sullivan",
          "opposition_pct": 53.0,
          "republican_pct": 47.0,
          "margin": 6.0,
          "url": "https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/voter-research/politics/2026-midterm-election-poll-alaska/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": true,
          "age_days": 53,
          "raw_weight": 0.2007830274330033,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2007830274330033,
          "normalized_weight": 0.04568344308710058,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.042174075584835
        },
        {
          "state": "AK",
          "poll_id": "5644eb93-7595-4afd-bacf-2fd24589ef3b",
          "question_id": "3b5dd101-97ba-48a0-8e39-e5fddb9a5d99",
          "pollster": "Alaska Survey Research",
          "start_date": "8/20/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-23",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1495,
          "opposition_name": "Mary Peltola",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "c722c2a0-c058-4d21-b6bd-b42aa2b68d62",
          "republican_name": "Dan Sullivan",
          "opposition_pct": 50.6,
          "republican_pct": 49.4,
          "margin": 1.2000000000000028,
          "url": "https://x.com/the_real_asr/status/2093483993954144564",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": true,
          "age_days": 72,
          "raw_weight": 0.14660275401993136,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.0630573716437979,
          "normalized_weight": 0.014347217917474663,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01324507550208117
        },
        {
          "state": "AK",
          "poll_id": "25f3873e-a991-4492-a3a3-aa1c6b9c0d71",
          "question_id": "0be7c48f-17ba-4d7f-94f7-8151fd9d3deb",
          "pollster": "Alaska Survey Research",
          "start_date": "8/2/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-05",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1371,
          "opposition_name": "Mary Peltola",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "c722c2a0-c058-4d21-b6bd-b42aa2b68d62",
          "republican_name": "Dan Sullivan",
          "opposition_pct": 50.8,
          "republican_pct": 49.2,
          "margin": 1.5999999999999943,
          "url": "https://bsky.app/profile/alaskasurvey.bsky.social/post/3mstcarsnc32q",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": true,
          "age_days": 90,
          "raw_weight": 0.07750229255889557,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.033335600670013385,
          "normalized_weight": 0.007584729822300445,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.007002076621203137
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.14493333333333333,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.6898333333333333,
            "R": 0.27613333333333334,
            "unresolved": 0.03403333333333333
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.577,
            "R": 0.3767666666666667,
            "unresolved": 0.046233333333333335
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.6898333333333333,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.577,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 16635,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.842380522993688,
              "R": 0.13056807935076645,
              "unresolved": 0.027051397655545536
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 13365,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.3655069210624766,
              "R": 0.5823419378974934,
              "unresolved": 0.05215114104002993
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.842380522993688,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.3655069210624766,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 16635,
          "republican": 13365
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "AR",
      "state_name": "Arkansas",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Hallie Shoffner",
      "republican_name": "Tom Cotton",
      "margin": -12.542379798972433,
      "sigma": 5.0455440833820635,
      "win_probability": 0.006462430776447925,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.006833333333333334,
      "interval80": [
        -19.008504718055015,
        -6.076254879889852
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -22.431464484810437,
        -2.65329511313443
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 5,
        "unique_pollsters": 3,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-28",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-12",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 6,
        "partisan_poll_count": 2,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 2.2806723842551593,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-and-polls",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.9096688598359152,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.09033114016408483,
        "poll_average": -10.947417903755559,
        "poll_sigma": 5.2901299566622395,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": -12.542379798972437,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 2.2806723842551593,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": null
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.9096688598359152,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.09033114016408483,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "AR",
          "poll_id": "641ee852-f596-4554-a4f7-c74286914371",
          "question_id": "2e1b0d01-6660-4ce8-ba99-84990932443b",
          "pollster": "GrayHouse",
          "start_date": "10/27/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-28",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 509,
          "opposition_name": "Hallie Shoffner",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "27f9f4bf-8c54-48c7-af34-50ce91a01025",
          "republican_name": "Tom Cotton",
          "opposition_pct": 39.0,
          "republican_pct": 55.0,
          "margin": -16.0,
          "url": "https://www.grayhouse.com/post/arkansas-senate-poll-october-2026-cotton",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 6,
          "raw_weight": 0.37778499122347725,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.37778499122347725,
          "normalized_weight": 0.29462767465710277,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.26801362088143366
        },
        {
          "state": "AR",
          "poll_id": "2fe207af-8764-4bfe-bf8b-a2ba80e88d49",
          "question_id": "414b10d8-cfba-4006-9d8f-7a77b40376b5",
          "pollster": "Hendrix College",
          "start_date": "10/8/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-13",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 709,
          "opposition_name": "Hallie Shoffner",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "27f9f4bf-8c54-48c7-af34-50ce91a01025",
          "republican_name": "Tom Cotton",
          "opposition_pct": 41.0,
          "republican_pct": 50.0,
          "margin": -9.0,
          "url": "https://talkbusiness.net/2026/10/poll-cotton-takes-lead-over-shoffner/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 21,
          "raw_weight": 0.5435224619706776,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5435224619706776,
          "normalized_weight": 0.4238833273278345,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.38559346307376524
        },
        {
          "state": "AR",
          "poll_id": "df432e8b-d597-4e16-8453-04a7399c56f1",
          "question_id": "386d610d-c0df-48bb-8d98-99484cee4f95",
          "pollster": "GrayHouse",
          "start_date": "9/30/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-04",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 550,
          "opposition_name": "Hallie Shoffner",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "27f9f4bf-8c54-48c7-af34-50ce91a01025",
          "republican_name": "Tom Cotton",
          "opposition_pct": 39.0,
          "republican_pct": 50.0,
          "margin": -11.0,
          "url": "https://x.com/LandonWall_/status/2108601370580332749",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 30,
          "raw_weight": 0.17784140179885302,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.17784140179885302,
          "normalized_weight": 0.13869528934980987,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.1261667857274539
        },
        {
          "state": "AR",
          "poll_id": "17f8fc5a-1b7e-4437-8310-e11f988d88af",
          "question_id": "b83dc8e7-0644-4ccf-8ee1-1fb8700a0d0c",
          "pollster": "J.L. Partners",
          "start_date": "8/14/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-18",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 803,
          "opposition_name": "Hallie Shoffner",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "27f9f4bf-8c54-48c7-af34-50ce91a01025",
          "republican_name": "Tom Cotton",
          "opposition_pct": 35.0,
          "republican_pct": 51.0,
          "margin": -16.0,
          "url": "https://jlpartners.com/arkansas-senate-likely-voter-polling",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 77,
          "raw_weight": 0.09109729819885232,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.09109729819885232,
          "normalized_weight": 0.071045133500276,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06462754558808645
        },
        {
          "state": "AR",
          "poll_id": "528d611e-0325-4931-8032-a2c7ece004a7",
          "question_id": "317a06d5-a01a-4d16-9cd3-c4007752cb6c",
          "pollster": "Hendrix College",
          "start_date": "8/11/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-12",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1217,
          "opposition_name": "Hallie Shoffner",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "27f9f4bf-8c54-48c7-af34-50ce91a01025",
          "republican_name": "Tom Cotton",
          "opposition_pct": 47.4,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": 3.3999999999999986,
          "url": "https://talkbusiness.net/2026/08/poll-gov-sanders-holds-lead-over-two-opponents/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 83,
          "raw_weight": 0.09199928306308655,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.09199928306308655,
          "normalized_weight": 0.07174857516497683,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06526744456517593
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.1235,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.7282,
            "R": 0.24496666666666667,
            "unresolved": 0.026833333333333334
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.6298666666666667,
            "R": 0.33186666666666664,
            "unresolved": 0.038266666666666664
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.7282,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.6298666666666667,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 205,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.9951219512195122,
              "R": 0.004878048780487805,
              "unresolved": 0.0
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 29795,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.6274207081725122,
              "R": 0.3340828998154053,
              "unresolved": 0.03849639201208256
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.9951219512195122,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.6274207081725122,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 205,
          "republican": 29795
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "CO",
      "state_name": "Colorado",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "John Hickenlooper",
      "republican_name": "Mark Baisley",
      "margin": 18.994009949489893,
      "sigma": 4.973406253055386,
      "win_probability": 0.9999330343156282,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.9999666666666667,
      "interval80": [
        12.620333379797456,
        25.367686519182328
      ],
      "interval95": [
        9.246312813015038,
        28.741707085964748
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 3,
        "unique_pollsters": 3,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-09-30",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 1,
        "partisan_poll_count": 1,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 2.37229654524262,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-and-polls",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.9122333839188254,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.08776661608117464,
        "poll_average": 19.60177415263622,
        "poll_sigma": 5.207160394079885,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": 18.994009949489897,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 2.37229654524262,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": null
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.9122333839188254,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.08776661608117464,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "CO",
          "poll_id": "d936e903-4367-4a56-b855-942ae35fce12",
          "question_id": "5a8dc49b-961c-433d-a80d-0b53b826534a",
          "pollster": "Research Co.",
          "start_date": "10/31/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-02",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 450,
          "opposition_name": "John Hickenlooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "decc7707-5bbc-44fe-a5ce-2adf5d67f9cc",
          "republican_name": "Mark Baisley",
          "opposition_pct": 57.0,
          "republican_pct": 35.0,
          "margin": 22.0,
          "url": "https://researchco.ca/2026/11/02/midterms-2026-two/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 1,
          "raw_weight": 0.8379070991704293,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8379070991704293,
          "normalized_weight": 0.4969909723474731,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.45337175648164274
        },
        {
          "state": "CO",
          "poll_id": "3ee13e5a-1bb0-40a5-acf3-81088c10f4a5",
          "question_id": "85d34933-489d-4040-9927-842c33cf9b03",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "10/9/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-20",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 710,
          "opposition_name": "John Hickenlooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "decc7707-5bbc-44fe-a5ce-2adf5d67f9cc",
          "republican_name": "Mark Baisley",
          "opposition_pct": 57.0,
          "republican_pct": 39.0,
          "margin": 18.0,
          "url": "https://www.colorado.edu/lab/aprl/media/84",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 14,
          "raw_weight": 0.6852781512207962,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6852781512207962,
          "normalized_weight": 0.40646159346410937,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.3707878348388024
        },
        {
          "state": "CO",
          "poll_id": "b805e995-fdc6-4384-a5e9-7c8ca121cebc",
          "question_id": "ff2c70e4-2c71-4b9e-b49f-697d6b84a55a",
          "pollster": "Lake Research Partners",
          "start_date": "9/16/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-30",
          "population": "rv",
          "sample_size": 600,
          "opposition_name": "John Hickenlooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "decc7707-5bbc-44fe-a5ce-2adf5d67f9cc",
          "republican_name": "Mark Baisley",
          "opposition_pct": 52.0,
          "republican_pct": 38.0,
          "margin": 14.0,
          "url": "https://ballot.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/LRP-Topline-CO-BISC-State-Partners-10.8.26.pdf",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 34,
          "raw_weight": 0.162775150886654,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.162775150886654,
          "normalized_weight": 0.09654743418841749,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.08807379259838016
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.14406666666666668,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.6299333333333333,
            "R": 0.3318333333333333,
            "unresolved": 0.038233333333333334
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.5215,
            "R": 0.4313666666666667,
            "unresolved": 0.04713333333333333
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.6299333333333333,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.5215,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 29999,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.6299543318110604,
              "R": 0.33181106036867897,
              "unresolved": 0.038234607820260676
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 1,
            "reliable_sample": false,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.0,
              "R": 1.0,
              "unresolved": 0.0
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.6299543318110604,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.0,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 29999,
          "republican": 1
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "DE",
      "state_name": "Delaware",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Democratic candidate",
      "republican_name": "Republican candidate",
      "margin": 15.946150502276632,
      "sigma": 16.787624984224102,
      "win_probability": 0.8289121934370649,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.8311666666666667,
      "interval80": [
        -5.568056578031422,
        37.460357582584685
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -16.9569898527674,
        48.84929085732066
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 0,
        "unique_pollsters": 0,
        "latest_poll_date": null,
        "oldest_poll_date": null,
        "latest_poll_age_days": null,
        "partisan_poll_count": 0,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 0,
        "has_polls": false,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-only",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.0,
        "prior_weight_share": 1.0,
        "poll_sigma": null,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.0,
      "prior_weight_share": 1.0,
      "polls": [],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.1411,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.6488333333333334,
            "R": 0.3152333333333333,
            "unresolved": 0.03593333333333333
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.5410666666666667,
            "R": 0.4126,
            "unresolved": 0.04633333333333333
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.6488333333333334,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.5410666666666667,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 24935,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.668337677962703,
              "R": 0.2958492079406457,
              "unresolved": 0.03581311409665129
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 5065,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.4408687068114511,
              "R": 0.5089832181638697,
              "unresolved": 0.05014807502467917
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.668337677962703,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.4408687068114511,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 24935,
          "republican": 5065
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "FL",
      "state_name": "Florida",
      "special": true,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
      "margin": -6.438454610756657,
      "sigma": 4.456738688061215,
      "win_probability": 0.07427725710710864,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.07463333333333333,
      "interval80": [
        -12.149995053664696,
        -0.7269141678486166
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -15.17350192786293,
        2.2965927063496148
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 26,
        "unique_pollsters": 18,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-09-09",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 1,
        "partisan_poll_count": 3,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 16.0234026793061,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-and-polls",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.9295216344874159,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.07047836551258413,
        "poll_average": -6.0948070434879975,
        "poll_sigma": 4.622611758391008,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": -6.438454610756657,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 16.0234026793061,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": null
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.9295216344874159,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.07047836551258413,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "FL",
          "poll_id": "cd6d6c9c-946e-406c-8a1b-1d54c5da3ae3",
          "question_id": "61be82d8-bb37-4de2-8dcd-1d1a57bcf7ac",
          "pollster": "Research Co.",
          "start_date": "10/31/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-02",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 450,
          "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
          "opposition_pct": 44.0,
          "republican_pct": 51.0,
          "margin": -7.0,
          "url": "https://researchco.ca/2026/11/02/midterms-2026-two/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 1,
          "raw_weight": 0.8379070991704293,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8379070991704293,
          "normalized_weight": 0.06151202038027074,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0571767537244925
        },
        {
          "state": "FL",
          "poll_id": "1463c401-194c-4f2b-a897-d274eaa1618f",
          "question_id": "1cce081f-190f-448f-81a8-a5b7a4bc577a",
          "pollster": "Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research",
          "start_date": "10/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-30",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 859,
          "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
          "opposition_pct": 45.0,
          "republican_pct": 49.0,
          "margin": -4.0,
          "url": "https://www.stetson.edu/artsci/cpor/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 4,
          "raw_weight": 1.0485325329766988,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5787667754096546,
          "normalized_weight": 0.042488139460411745,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.039493644837571194
        },
        {
          "state": "FL",
          "poll_id": "63f40723-ec76-453c-90cd-01e1224edc02",
          "question_id": "6394a85d-27bf-47c6-aa26-f328c881b5dc",
          "pollster": "Big Data Poll",
          "start_date": "10/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-30",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1067,
          "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
          "opposition_pct": 44.7,
          "republican_pct": 51.6,
          "margin": -6.899999999999999,
          "url": "https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/sunshine-state-poll-ashley-moody-leads-angie-craig-governors-race-tight/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 4,
          "raw_weight": 1.1686044553102888,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
          "normalized_weight": 0.07341150402135366,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06823758120810815
        },
        {
          "state": "FL",
          "poll_id": "ac95d9d0-6076-4d28-9e91-be2b3a5f22e0",
          "question_id": "7b830a2c-473e-44cd-8642-0defb7449c74",
          "pollster": "Targoz Market Research",
          "start_date": "10/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-29",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1013,
          "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
          "opposition_pct": 43.0,
          "republican_pct": 52.0,
          "margin": -9.0,
          "url": "https://www.targoz.com/market-matters-blog/2026/11/2/republicans-lead-all-five-florida-statewide-races",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 5,
          "raw_weight": 1.1016795528161394,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7139529221683025,
          "normalized_weight": 0.05241235781681553,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.048718420505225665
        },
        {
          "state": "FL",
          "poll_id": "5823662f-30b2-42b1-a224-9352ede8ad74",
          "question_id": "fc429313-70a2-43da-8882-9f31debb6272",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "start_date": "10/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-29",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1200,
          "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
          "opposition_pct": 42.7,
          "republican_pct": 48.5,
          "margin": -5.799999999999997,
          "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-florida-survey-donalds-49-jolly-45-moody-49-nixon-43/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 5,
          "raw_weight": 1.1990607563610018,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8321357423857325,
          "normalized_weight": 0.06108833639846231,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05678293029721579
        },
        {
          "state": "FL",
          "poll_id": "c69c6758-b7d5-450d-81dd-c1c7f2ad1268",
          "question_id": "d11d5f5e-d28f-43d6-8882-fee61bfd205b",
          "pollster": "The Political Matrix/The Listener Group",
          "start_date": "10/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-28",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 500,
          "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
          "opposition_pct": 35.8,
          "republican_pct": 41.8,
          "margin": -6.0,
          "url": "https://palafoxproductions.com/new-florida-statewide-poll-for-november-election/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 6,
          "raw_weight": 0.748860298674024,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.748860298674024,
          "normalized_weight": 0.05497496082754021,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05110041544429684
        },
        {
          "state": "FL",
          "poll_id": "50db879b-b0ff-49d4-809b-1b56e23071d9",
          "question_id": "5568f3f5-fe5c-4e67-adfe-926ab945ee4b",
          "pollster": "St. Pete Polls",
          "start_date": "10/25/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-27",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 916,
          "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
          "opposition_pct": 44.7,
          "republican_pct": 49.0,
          "margin": -4.299999999999997,
          "url": "https://floridapolitics.com/archives/827489-final-st-pete-polls-ashley-moody-holds-49-to-45-over-angie-nixon-with-a-cushion-that-shrinks-if-republicans-stay-home/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 7,
          "raw_weight": 0.9806832999256624,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5680787332127698,
          "normalized_weight": 0.04170351420769474,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.038764318690205586
        },
        {
          "state": "FL",
          "poll_id": "1c664c13-d62e-4274-b08a-f8a8a254a1e8",
          "question_id": "ca5c9d3f-51eb-4e3d-b335-5d3b73ddc972",
          "pollster": "ActiVote",
          "start_date": "10/17/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-27",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 400,
          "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
          "opposition_pct": 47.0,
          "republican_pct": 53.0,
          "margin": -6.0,
          "url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/fl-u-s-senate/2026-10-27/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 7,
          "raw_weight": 0.6480537657465553,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5977464612973163,
          "normalized_weight": 0.04388146674727785,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0407887726946349
        },
        {
          "state": "FL",
          "poll_id": "e8777b6f-33f5-4438-acec-0ab4d8869a70",
          "question_id": "e2867eb5-d033-4fcb-a3d7-079d7eb93f48",
          "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
          "start_date": "10/19/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-25",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 813,
          "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
          "opposition_pct": 44.32,
          "republican_pct": 50.35,
          "margin": -6.030000000000001,
          "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/28/polls/times-siena-fl-poll-toplines.html",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 9,
          "raw_weight": 0.8648818679530793,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8648818679530793,
          "normalized_weight": 0.06349227872723334,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.059017446699868525
        },
        {
          "state": "FL",
          "poll_id": "ab99ade2-cb4e-40de-81c4-6a0df198c1e8",
          "question_id": "c22cbbcd-c6a3-441b-9e8b-fea8932b3572",
          "pollster": "Echelon Insights",
          "start_date": "10/16/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-23",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 515,
          "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
          "opposition_pct": 43.0,
          "republican_pct": 51.0,
          "margin": -8.0,
          "url": "https://netchoice.org/netchoice-echelon-insights-poll-voters-rank-ai-regulation-far-behind-cost-of-living-want-one-national-ai-standard/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 11,
          "raw_weight": 0.6443852793811867,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6443852793811867,
          "normalized_weight": 0.047305292528593085,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.043971292831083184
        },
        {
          "state": "FL",
          "poll_id": "1e6f3670-4580-45df-928a-94a521db841c",
          "question_id": "cf48ec36-3f46-4fc8-8e0d-9f3a9d1a651c",
          "pollster": "Workbench Strategy",
          "start_date": "10/18/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-22",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
          "opposition_pct": 47.0,
          "republican_pct": 49.0,
          "margin": -2.0,
          "url": "https://www.politico.com/newsletters/florida-playbook/2026/10/30/gop-closing-message-keep-florida-great-01142052",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 12,
          "raw_weight": 0.38852791925933,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.38852791925933,
          "normalized_weight": 0.02852241890711447,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.026512205442075817
        },
        {
          "state": "FL",
          "poll_id": "683e1b42-52d2-4e06-9a93-d86d85377fbc",
          "question_id": "a8f82f3f-824a-45b6-a089-b237c854ff89",
          "pollster": "co/efficient",
          "start_date": "10/18/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-20",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1014,
          "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
          "opposition_pct": 40.0,
          "republican_pct": 48.0,
          "margin": -8.0,
          "url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/fl/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 14,
          "raw_weight": 0.8189486824316676,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8189486824316676,
          "normalized_weight": 0.06012025449361464,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05588307722270409
        },
        {
          "state": "FL",
          "poll_id": "c4a25cad-66f7-4bdc-b678-8a2bb31191a6",
          "question_id": "41cbc861-90e0-4471-87f4-921689304ff6",
          "pollster": "University of North Florida",
          "start_date": "10/12/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-19",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1471,
          "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
          "opposition_pct": 45.0,
          "republican_pct": 49.0,
          "margin": -4.0,
          "url": "https://floridapolitics.com/archives/825948-unf-poll-governors-race-too-close-to-call-in-final-days/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 15,
          "raw_weight": 0.9543535332273472,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.9543535332273472,
          "normalized_weight": 0.07006052824231246,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06512277672484604
        },
        {
          "state": "FL",
          "poll_id": "02c34c80-bfc6-418f-a68f-d501759d8925",
          "question_id": "3059a731-a167-43f5-bdd3-9d47e061be00",
          "pollster": "ActiVote",
          "start_date": "9/27/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-15",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 400,
          "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
          "opposition_pct": 46.9,
          "republican_pct": 53.1,
          "margin": -6.200000000000003,
          "url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/fl-u-s-senate/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 19,
          "raw_weight": 0.43610784407720626,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4022535387026836,
          "normalized_weight": 0.029530037274075795,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.027448808513473248
        },
        {
          "state": "FL",
          "poll_id": "78502352-75f9-4ca4-9e47-88799143c059",
          "question_id": "821ecaa0-b6a1-4e73-a0cd-c118d9490a01",
          "pollster": "MDW Communications",
          "start_date": "10/4/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-10",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 2351,
          "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
          "opposition_pct": 42.4,
          "republican_pct": 47.6,
          "margin": -5.200000000000003,
          "url": "https://www.mdwcomm.com/media/florida-statewide-poll-october-2026.html",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 24,
          "raw_weight": 0.826808802972629,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.826808802972629,
          "normalized_weight": 0.06069727776431576,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05641943283642347
        },
        {
          "state": "FL",
          "poll_id": "87803ecd-1309-4c1d-9a0e-731f609ae48e",
          "question_id": "47258a6c-32ee-4fe9-815a-c6ca3ad4d230",
          "pollster": "Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research",
          "start_date": "10/1/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-09",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 716,
          "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
          "opposition_pct": 41.0,
          "republican_pct": 52.0,
          "margin": -11.0,
          "url": "https://www.stetson.edu/artsci/cpor/media/cpor-october-2026-pr.docx",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 25,
          "raw_weight": 0.4786431450677585,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.26420043339652705,
          "normalized_weight": 0.019395351178732523,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.018028398529112883
        },
        {
          "state": "FL",
          "poll_id": "e775512f-7d66-4faa-b573-369e0f127624",
          "question_id": "196ba81c-3b25-4748-ab61-134db9ba9851",
          "pollster": "St. Pete Polls",
          "start_date": "10/5/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-07",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 836,
          "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
          "opposition_pct": 44.9,
          "republican_pct": 46.8,
          "margin": -1.8999999999999986,
          "url": "https://www.stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2026_State_Gov_October7_K7ZU3GA.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 27,
          "raw_weight": 0.4841600460765036,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.28045855952500165,
          "normalized_weight": 0.020588884670392712,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.019137813731096333
        },
        {
          "state": "FL",
          "poll_id": "38af0e14-ef3f-47c6-adc8-f543f24ac35e",
          "question_id": "e2bb179d-b3d5-4522-8562-d62b71b61989",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "9/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-05",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 3812,
          "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
          "opposition_pct": 44.0,
          "republican_pct": 49.0,
          "margin": -5.0,
          "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_fl_20260921_lv.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 29,
          "raw_weight": 0.7010214122078596,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7010214122078596,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0514630362213523,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.047836005544156485
        },
        {
          "state": "FL",
          "poll_id": "d4838e04-358f-42db-a0ce-bb4e52d31c89",
          "question_id": "eb4ae581-25d7-43fd-9123-100333d1e19f",
          "pollster": "Targoz Market Research",
          "start_date": "9/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-04",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 847,
          "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
          "opposition_pct": 42.0,
          "republican_pct": 52.0,
          "margin": -10.0,
          "url": "https://jamesmadison.org/new-jmi-poll-republicans-hold-double-digit-leads-in-key-statewide-races-florida-voters-focused-on-affordability/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 30,
          "raw_weight": 0.4413907514138595,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2860470778316974,
          "normalized_weight": 0.020999146204538115,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.019519160702882486
        },
        {
          "state": "FL",
          "poll_id": "7f8493dd-4729-4532-a244-239a7481b877",
          "question_id": "3d2b0ff7-fc00-4cc5-94ab-b8a73b92977b",
          "pollster": "Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.",
          "start_date": "9/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 625,
          "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
          "opposition_pct": 40.0,
          "republican_pct": 50.0,
          "margin": -10.0,
          "url": "https://floridapolitics.com/archives/823612-mason-dixon-poll-byron-donalds-leads-david-jolly-48-41-with-1-in-4-independents-still-undecided/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 33,
          "raw_weight": 0.3434134079857147,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3434134079857147,
          "normalized_weight": 0.025210494781330056,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02343370031537838
        },
        {
          "state": "FL",
          "poll_id": "b6ae955e-6757-491f-9253-998c3fb5a395",
          "question_id": "584921df-2c0c-4adf-a420-eb36986495d9",
          "pollster": "Change Research",
          "start_date": "9/25/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-27",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1063,
          "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
          "opposition_pct": 47.0,
          "republican_pct": 48.0,
          "margin": -1.0,
          "url": "https://changeresearch.com/research/2026/2026-09-28-florida-aapor-methodology-statement",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 37,
          "raw_weight": 0.1962342584755153,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.1962342584755153,
          "normalized_weight": 0.014405852055202643,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01339055114853586
        },
        {
          "state": "FL",
          "poll_id": "e5366105-3d6b-41f9-8012-1ee8e307d77e",
          "question_id": "90898ec8-a9d4-4e0b-acd1-aa2658f2dd7f",
          "pollster": "Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research",
          "start_date": "9/14/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-21",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 830,
          "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
          "opposition_pct": 40.0,
          "republican_pct": 51.0,
          "margin": -11.0,
          "url": "https://www.stetson.edu/artsci/cpor/media/cpor-sept.-2026-poll-final.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 43,
          "raw_weight": 0.2844910891685384,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.1570327911938184,
          "normalized_weight": 0.01152801338220939,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.010715537841424073
        },
        {
          "state": "FL",
          "poll_id": "5526f998-6a10-466c-af38-ae4552442e13",
          "question_id": "28fa5882-0842-44a3-a342-c374479b2eaa",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "start_date": "9/20/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-21",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 600,
          "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
          "opposition_pct": 41.8,
          "republican_pct": 49.3,
          "margin": -7.5,
          "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-florida-u-s-senate-survey-moody-leads-nixon-by-7/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 43,
          "raw_weight": 0.2418829446309729,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.16786425761426751,
          "normalized_weight": 0.012323167622891346,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.011454650910892367
        },
        {
          "state": "FL",
          "poll_id": "1292c8da-3ce1-40f8-8e42-342d50715e67",
          "question_id": "2e467edb-7ce6-4dfe-80cd-9e749fcfac49",
          "pollster": "St. Pete Polls",
          "start_date": "9/15/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-17",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 913,
          "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
          "opposition_pct": 44.8,
          "republican_pct": 45.2,
          "margin": -0.4000000000000057,
          "url": "https://floridapolitics.com/archives/820638-poll-byron-donalds-44-david-jolly-43-in-dead-heat-race-for-florida-governor/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 47,
          "raw_weight": 0.26147246656030587,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.15146270726222855,
          "normalized_weight": 0.011119105143266202,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.010335448786806232
        },
        {
          "state": "FL",
          "poll_id": "7f4eca68-093c-447a-8a67-3560ea1e48ee",
          "question_id": "d866b029-e1d4-44e9-a76f-e6ec29ae8f3e",
          "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
          "start_date": "9/8/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-10",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 733,
          "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
          "opposition_pct": 43.0,
          "republican_pct": 50.4,
          "margin": -7.399999999999999,
          "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/polling/f/new-quantus-polls-moody-leads-in-florida-flanagan-in-minnesota",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 54,
          "raw_weight": 0.1859513049364677,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.1859513049364677,
          "normalized_weight": 0.013650964970119457,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.012688867271355897
        },
        {
          "state": "FL",
          "poll_id": "9d8b464b-d0f1-4fa9-a1c2-f611d332cb71",
          "question_id": "667a2ccb-cdd5-4be2-9e6a-f8383bc38555",
          "pollster": "Change Research",
          "start_date": "9/7/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-09",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1107,
          "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
          "opposition_pct": 47.0,
          "republican_pct": 47.0,
          "margin": 0.0,
          "url": "https://changeresearch.com/research/2026/2026-09-10-an-emerging-florida-blue-wave",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 55,
          "raw_weight": 0.11054937616478118,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.11054937616478118,
          "normalized_weight": 0.008115595972878972,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.007543622033549952
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.1247,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.7274333333333334,
            "R": 0.24553333333333333,
            "unresolved": 0.027033333333333333
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.6281333333333333,
            "R": 0.33336666666666664,
            "unresolved": 0.0385
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.7274333333333334,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.6281333333333333,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 2239,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.9816882536846807,
              "R": 0.014738722644037517,
              "unresolved": 0.003573023671281822
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 27761,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.601563344259933,
              "R": 0.3574078743561111,
              "unresolved": 0.04102878138395591
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.9816882536846807,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.601563344259933,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 2239,
          "republican": 27761
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "GA",
      "state_name": "Georgia",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Jon Ossoff",
      "republican_name": "Mike Collins",
      "margin": 8.273249757184107,
      "sigma": 4.55393639104214,
      "win_probability": 0.9653703785208241,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.9651333333333333,
      "interval80": [
        2.437145445853523,
        14.10935406851469
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -0.6523015571447992,
        17.198801071513014
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 13,
        "unique_pollsters": 9,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-17",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 1,
        "partisan_poll_count": 2,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 7.938065110718219,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-and-polls",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.926413965076017,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.07358603492398297,
        "poll_average": 8.928289058488005,
        "poll_sigma": 4.731342783019266,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": 8.273249757184107,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 7.938065110718219,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": null
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.926413965076017,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.07358603492398297,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "GA",
          "poll_id": "e324d57b-4426-403d-9ca8-23cf08f2c082",
          "question_id": "77bff359-9256-450d-a38b-a13a40d81fc7",
          "pollster": "Research Co.",
          "start_date": "10/31/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-02",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 450,
          "opposition_name": "Jon Ossoff",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "01dbf647-0111-4795-8caf-54b13778f0bb",
          "republican_name": "Mike Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 52.0,
          "republican_pct": 42.0,
          "margin": 10.0,
          "url": "https://researchco.ca/2026/11/02/midterms-2026-two/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 1,
          "raw_weight": 0.8379070991704293,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8379070991704293,
          "normalized_weight": 0.14890633324696323,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.13794890660824993
        },
        {
          "state": "GA",
          "poll_id": "196de13e-1481-439d-9176-e5079f25b5cf",
          "question_id": "f776fb19-8dd8-43d6-8509-3d1ddaa1021b",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "start_date": "10/31/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-02",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 2500,
          "opposition_name": "Jon Ossoff",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "01dbf647-0111-4795-8caf-54b13778f0bb",
          "republican_name": "Mike Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 52.7,
          "republican_pct": 46.0,
          "margin": 6.700000000000003,
          "url": "https://jamesmagazinega.com/2026/11/02/48131/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 1,
          "raw_weight": 1.7664632673354264,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7957558417671148,
          "normalized_weight": 0.14141553959228406,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.13100933075705234
        },
        {
          "state": "GA",
          "poll_id": "a89d1cfa-b381-4239-b77c-ac34182fe6d0",
          "question_id": "05e2e360-2d74-44dd-96bc-c12710b8dfdd",
          "pollster": "Echelon Insights",
          "start_date": "10/16/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-23",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 508,
          "opposition_name": "Jon Ossoff",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "01dbf647-0111-4795-8caf-54b13778f0bb",
          "republican_name": "Mike Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 55.0,
          "republican_pct": 40.0,
          "margin": 15.0,
          "url": "https://netchoice.org/netchoice-echelon-insights-poll-voters-rank-ai-regulation-far-behind-cost-of-living-want-one-national-ai-standard/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 11,
          "raw_weight": 0.6399909787711444,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6399909787711444,
          "normalized_weight": 0.1137342195266,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.10536496927646366
        },
        {
          "state": "GA",
          "poll_id": "cdd3b098-9001-4148-9363-4b4bca2ca3d6",
          "question_id": "56c735c1-a50f-4ff9-a148-aaf3a8443b20",
          "pollster": "ActiVote",
          "start_date": "10/6/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-20",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 400,
          "opposition_name": "Jon Ossoff",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "01dbf647-0111-4795-8caf-54b13778f0bb",
          "republican_name": "Mike Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 54.0,
          "republican_pct": 46.0,
          "margin": 8.0,
          "url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/ga-governor/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 14,
          "raw_weight": 0.5143606147390174,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5143606147390174,
          "normalized_weight": 0.09140816826026481,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.08468180359832764
        },
        {
          "state": "GA",
          "poll_id": "ce18d5b0-de43-40b7-ac02-1fcba168d5d0",
          "question_id": "2087a4b1-7ea5-4fc6-a86b-de2b5ce86087",
          "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
          "start_date": "10/15/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-17",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 755,
          "opposition_name": "Jon Ossoff",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "01dbf647-0111-4795-8caf-54b13778f0bb",
          "republican_name": "Mike Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 52.7,
          "republican_pct": 45.4,
          "margin": 7.300000000000004,
          "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/polling/f/georgia-two-weeks-out-ossoff-ahead-down-ballot-near-even",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 17,
          "raw_weight": 0.640039683455705,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.640039683455705,
          "normalized_weight": 0.11374287494436296,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.10537298777635284
        },
        {
          "state": "GA",
          "poll_id": "7d62a66c-24e9-488e-b8a3-3abd834b7208",
          "question_id": "f16bad60-868b-4139-890d-b89ef0bf2155",
          "pollster": "University of Georgia",
          "start_date": "10/7/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-15",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1000,
          "opposition_name": "Jon Ossoff",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "01dbf647-0111-4795-8caf-54b13778f0bb",
          "republican_name": "Mike Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 40.0,
          "margin": 8.0,
          "url": "https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/10/rick-jackson-has-outspent-keisha-lance-bottoms-but-democratic-enthusiasm-has-the-race-knotted/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 19,
          "raw_weight": 0.6895470463747722,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6895470463747722,
          "normalized_weight": 0.12254093846274533,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.1135236366854081
        },
        {
          "state": "GA",
          "poll_id": "7e60bd8f-c327-4ae6-822f-706061debcf6",
          "question_id": "16b04151-4b9f-4feb-856c-6049c36d2427",
          "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
          "start_date": "10/7/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-09",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1101,
          "opposition_name": "Jon Ossoff",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "01dbf647-0111-4795-8caf-54b13778f0bb",
          "republican_name": "Mike Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 51.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.0,
          "margin": 8.0,
          "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/ga-senate-gen-1010/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 25,
          "raw_weight": 0.2967693163037755,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2967693163037755,
          "normalized_weight": 0.05273953491354185,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.04885864165551934
        },
        {
          "state": "GA",
          "poll_id": "f4db5d4b-8e34-4a28-a050-eda62383b2f8",
          "question_id": "3a641086-116f-43a1-9f71-5ca586f98589",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "start_date": "9/22/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-23",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1200,
          "opposition_name": "Jon Ossoff",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "01dbf647-0111-4795-8caf-54b13778f0bb",
          "republican_name": "Mike Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 42.0,
          "margin": 8.0,
          "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-georgia-survey-jackson-leads-by-two-in-race-for-governor-ossoff-leads-by-eight-in-senate-contest/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 41,
          "raw_weight": 0.36541785855620185,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.16461332709779536,
          "normalized_weight": 0.029253800291206236,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.027101129121318315
        },
        {
          "state": "GA",
          "poll_id": "6aae867f-1a44-4fe5-8a66-b45166896358",
          "question_id": "bcd4fddd-ab5f-4f28-9aa1-f898b74b34c7",
          "pollster": "Big Data Poll",
          "start_date": "9/21/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-23",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 678,
          "opposition_name": "Jon Ossoff",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "01dbf647-0111-4795-8caf-54b13778f0bb",
          "republican_name": "Mike Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 55.4,
          "republican_pct": 44.6,
          "margin": 10.799999999999997,
          "url": "https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/peach-state-poll-jon-ossoff-opens-up-lead-over-mike-collins-in-georgia/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 41,
          "raw_weight": 0.2746717484812866,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2746717484812866,
          "normalized_weight": 0.048812527013285804,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.045220606695758295
        },
        {
          "state": "GA",
          "poll_id": "0f4bc367-db9c-459a-a5ce-34b7b7b6e9b2",
          "question_id": "14be6d65-b2aa-4932-b16b-6e861a25ef5b",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "9/15/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-18",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 3301,
          "opposition_name": "Jon Ossoff",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "01dbf647-0111-4795-8caf-54b13778f0bb",
          "republican_name": "Mike Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 52.0,
          "republican_pct": 42.0,
          "margin": 10.0,
          "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ga_20260915.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 46,
          "raw_weight": 0.3999818958196589,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3999818958196589,
          "normalized_weight": 0.07108167185913751,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06585105347125592
        },
        {
          "state": "GA",
          "poll_id": "d6876f4e-e4f8-4a30-8d1d-c425e4e597aa",
          "question_id": "3fdcf2d2-d867-46ba-a30f-f37464381098",
          "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
          "start_date": "9/14/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-16",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 645,
          "opposition_name": "Jon Ossoff",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "01dbf647-0111-4795-8caf-54b13778f0bb",
          "republican_name": "Mike Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 49.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.9,
          "margin": 4.100000000000001,
          "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/f/ossoff-leads-collins-by-four-points-in-georgia-senate-race",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 48,
          "raw_weight": 0.21263544999892003,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.21263544999892003,
          "normalized_weight": 0.037787918504336486,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.035007255413571754
        },
        {
          "state": "GA",
          "poll_id": "0e1449be-7a0f-4fc2-beb1-6d95675b7439",
          "question_id": "e4e8615f-9864-482a-9569-ad14a1ffb78d",
          "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
          "start_date": "9/10/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-12",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1091,
          "opposition_name": "Jon Ossoff",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "01dbf647-0111-4795-8caf-54b13778f0bb",
          "republican_name": "Mike Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 49.4,
          "republican_pct": 42.8,
          "margin": 6.600000000000001,
          "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/GA-General-Full-Report-0912.pdf",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 52,
          "raw_weight": 0.121171126690719,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.121171126690719,
          "normalized_weight": 0.021533590285583975,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01994901875879025
        },
        {
          "state": "GA",
          "poll_id": "36116a64-5101-4c69-9a3d-f1d3c4c6a83d",
          "question_id": "c953f8f7-c3dd-4bd5-ac8b-230254a27ade",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "start_date": "8/16/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-17",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "opposition_name": "Jon Ossoff",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "01dbf647-0111-4795-8caf-54b13778f0bb",
          "republican_name": "Mike Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 50.1,
          "republican_pct": 42.6,
          "margin": 7.5,
          "url": "https://jamesmagazinega.com/2026/08/18/exclusive-jmo-insideradvantage-georgia-survey-ossoff-leads-jackson-lance-bottoms-tied/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 78,
          "raw_weight": 0.0879747326750979,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.03963083113508988,
          "normalized_weight": 0.007042883099687769,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.006524625257948615
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.1458,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.6324666666666666,
            "R": 0.3291,
            "unresolved": 0.03843333333333333
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.5225333333333333,
            "R": 0.42993333333333333,
            "unresolved": 0.04753333333333333
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.6324666666666666,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.5225333333333333,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 28954,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.65020377149962,
              "R": 0.3110105684879464,
              "unresolved": 0.03878566001243351
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 1046,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.06883365200764818,
              "R": 0.9082217973231358,
              "unresolved": 0.022944550669216062
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.65020377149962,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.06883365200764818,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 28954,
          "republican": 1046
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "ID",
      "state_name": "Idaho",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_name": "Todd Achilles",
      "republican_name": "James Risch",
      "margin": -16.7402088277506,
      "sigma": 7.0,
      "win_probability": 0.008390792715764595,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.0087,
      "interval80": [
        -25.711069786562806,
        -7.769347868938393
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -30.45995671953098,
        -3.0204609359702204
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 5,
        "unique_pollsters": 3,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-22",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-07",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 12,
        "partisan_poll_count": 5,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 2.1253317629492834,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "polls-only-independent",
        "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
        "poll_average": -16.7402088277506,
        "poll_sigma": 5.405389572294746,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": -16.7402088277506,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 2.1253317629492834,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": "Independent challengers use the selected polling average without the historical Democratic prior, with sigma at least 7pp"
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "ID",
          "poll_id": "b26b343b-ffaa-401a-84c6-cf5b73894075",
          "question_id": "b353ff81-0e30-4e5e-9491-5e36271b6699",
          "pollster": "VoteNexus",
          "start_date": "10/21/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-22",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 700,
          "opposition_name": "Todd Achilles",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "IND",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "270b752e-1222-4fa7-9907-6ee2cd668024",
          "republican_name": "James Risch",
          "opposition_pct": 43.0,
          "republican_pct": 49.0,
          "margin": -6.0,
          "url": "https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZWt7_rFQzMxjeueMCX4GoFyqIe9jRk8X/view",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 12,
          "raw_weight": 0.36343458976614545,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.36343458976614545,
          "normalized_weight": 0.4465567525457122,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.4465567525457122
        },
        {
          "state": "ID",
          "poll_id": "dd4b17a6-9b7b-4ac4-9a29-0f68deee76c6",
          "question_id": "250bc61c-99e4-45ee-aead-903bc511258f",
          "pollster": "Peak Insights",
          "start_date": "10/13/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-15",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 500,
          "opposition_name": "Todd Achilles",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "IND",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "270b752e-1222-4fa7-9907-6ee2cd668024",
          "republican_name": "James Risch",
          "opposition_pct": 27.0,
          "republican_pct": 54.0,
          "margin": -27.0,
          "url": "https://senatorrisch.com/new-poll-senator-risch-continues-to-lead/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 19,
          "raw_weight": 0.24379169621937807,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.24379169621937807,
          "normalized_weight": 0.2995499911865499,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.2995499911865499
        },
        {
          "state": "ID",
          "poll_id": "a5b85a2d-5293-46f9-ba57-2e08057f636a",
          "question_id": "a327a6a6-1cb2-4de5-9009-37d5f3eadb3c",
          "pollster": "Peak Insights",
          "start_date": "9/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-30",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 500,
          "opposition_name": "Todd Achilles",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "IND",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "270b752e-1222-4fa7-9907-6ee2cd668024",
          "republican_name": "James Risch",
          "opposition_pct": 24.0,
          "republican_pct": 49.0,
          "margin": -25.0,
          "url": "https://x.com/JacobRubashkin/status/2106137210185462099",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 34,
          "raw_weight": 0.14859270323654575,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.14859270323654575,
          "normalized_weight": 0.18257776468661732,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.18257776468661732
        },
        {
          "state": "ID",
          "poll_id": "abb4eb63-e7f7-4b77-a046-58a5bc930e16",
          "question_id": "035a7d83-dc19-4537-8426-b9c67b54ecf1",
          "pollster": "Peak Insights",
          "start_date": "8/11/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-13",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 500,
          "opposition_name": "Todd Achilles",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "IND",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "270b752e-1222-4fa7-9907-6ee2cd668024",
          "republican_name": "James Risch",
          "opposition_pct": 18.0,
          "republican_pct": 52.0,
          "margin": -34.0,
          "url": "https://x.com/JacobRubashkin/status/2088415795764228191/photo/1",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 82,
          "raw_weight": 0.03047396202742226,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.03047396202742226,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03744374889831874,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03744374889831874
        },
        {
          "state": "ID",
          "poll_id": "e2084fdb-8a8e-4f5a-afe6-dee4d96c8b9c",
          "question_id": "8798aaac-e15b-4a90-b9b5-87d1f1f27e13",
          "pollster": "The Bullfinch Group",
          "start_date": "8/4/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-07",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 608,
          "opposition_name": "Todd Achilles",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "IND",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "270b752e-1222-4fa7-9907-6ee2cd668024",
          "republican_name": "James Risch",
          "opposition_pct": 30.0,
          "republican_pct": 34.0,
          "margin": -4.0,
          "url": "https://www.thebullfinchgroup.com/post/for-immediate-release-independent-todd-achilles-within-4-points-among-likely-voters",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 88,
          "raw_weight": 0.02756684975965824,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.02756684975965824,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03387174268280185,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03387174268280185
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.08703333333333334,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.6299333333333333,
            "R": 0.24506666666666665,
            "unresolved": 0.125
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.6299333333333333,
            "R": 0.3321,
            "unresolved": 0.03796666666666667
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.6299333333333333,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.6299333333333333,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 261,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.9310344827586207,
              "R": 0.02681992337164751,
              "unresolved": 0.0421455938697318
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 29739,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.6272907629711826,
              "R": 0.33451023907999594,
              "unresolved": 0.038198997948821416
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.9310344827586207,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.6272907629711826,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 261,
          "republican": 29739
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "IL",
      "state_name": "Illinois",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Juliana Stratton",
      "republican_name": "Don Tracy",
      "margin": 12.903987317288557,
      "sigma": 4.925300425476235,
      "win_probability": 0.9956027268601866,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.9962333333333333,
      "interval80": [
        6.591960846242,
        19.216013788335115
      ],
      "interval95": [
        3.2505758703153322,
        22.557398764261784
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 4,
        "unique_pollsters": 3,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-10-01",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 1,
        "partisan_poll_count": 0,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 2.591783257492157,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-and-polls",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.913923037322878,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.08607696267712195,
        "poll_average": 12.902007351102208,
        "poll_sigma": 5.152024429378299,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": 12.903987317288557,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 2.591783257492157,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": null
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.913923037322878,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.08607696267712195,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "IL",
          "poll_id": "5b734364-d6c9-4d6d-9585-4deac2cc6890",
          "question_id": "683f2b95-c5c1-40e8-ae1b-5b6c3cd1404f",
          "pollster": "Research Co.",
          "start_date": "10/31/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-02",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 450,
          "opposition_name": "Juliana Stratton",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "bc33e464-21a9-4303-8a85-e96b7b215c9b",
          "republican_name": "Don Tracy",
          "opposition_pct": 53.0,
          "republican_pct": 41.0,
          "margin": 12.0,
          "url": "https://researchco.ca/2026/11/02/midterms-2026-two/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 1,
          "raw_weight": 0.8379070991704293,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8379070991704293,
          "normalized_weight": 0.3869213733043147,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.3536163566954184
        },
        {
          "state": "IL",
          "poll_id": "a2abf79d-4ebe-451a-9fa7-aeaa27e1ee2d",
          "question_id": "63eaba5e-79e7-4d71-a1a5-b321a953daa8",
          "pollster": "ActiVote",
          "start_date": "10/21/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-30",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 400,
          "opposition_name": "Juliana Stratton",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "bc33e464-21a9-4303-8a85-e96b7b215c9b",
          "republican_name": "Don Tracy",
          "opposition_pct": 55.6,
          "republican_pct": 44.4,
          "margin": 11.200000000000003,
          "url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/il-u-s-senate/2026-10-30/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 4,
          "raw_weight": 0.7155093670575968,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5817764297428978,
          "normalized_weight": 0.2686476046987373,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.24552323485578587
        },
        {
          "state": "IL",
          "poll_id": "202cde3e-e29c-4102-b9e9-b80eed0b2752",
          "question_id": "56860ec3-aece-4f7c-ac5d-e934b6bb7099",
          "pollster": "ActiVote",
          "start_date": "9/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-20",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 400,
          "opposition_name": "Juliana Stratton",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "bc33e464-21a9-4303-8a85-e96b7b215c9b",
          "republican_name": "Don Tracy",
          "opposition_pct": 58.5,
          "republican_pct": 41.5,
          "margin": 17.0,
          "url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/il-u-s-senate/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 14,
          "raw_weight": 0.5143606147390174,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.41822357025710233,
          "normalized_weight": 0.1931236032160621,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.1765001100299618
        },
        {
          "state": "IL",
          "poll_id": "4cb055d5-c17c-41ab-b123-ea5dee5a1b42",
          "question_id": "81acd091-4a0d-411a-a596-67e5c5a6aa86",
          "pollster": "Public Policy Polling",
          "start_date": "9/30/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-01",
          "population": "rv",
          "sample_size": 569,
          "opposition_name": "Juliana Stratton",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "bc33e464-21a9-4303-8a85-e96b7b215c9b",
          "republican_name": "Don Tracy",
          "opposition_pct": 49.0,
          "republican_pct": 36.0,
          "margin": 13.0,
          "url": "https://www.cnwmedia.com/article/cnw-poll-pritzker-leads-bailey-by-20-points-democrats-ahead-in-four-other-statewide-races",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 33,
          "raw_weight": 0.32766750327318694,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.32766750327318694,
          "normalized_weight": 0.151307418780886,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.13828333574171203
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.14403333333333335,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.6300333333333333,
            "R": 0.3317333333333333,
            "unresolved": 0.038233333333333334
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.5216333333333333,
            "R": 0.43123333333333336,
            "unresolved": 0.04713333333333333
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.6300333333333333,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.5216333333333333,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 29887,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.6321477565496704,
              "R": 0.32954127212500417,
              "unresolved": 0.03831097132532539
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 113,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.04424778761061947,
              "R": 0.9380530973451328,
              "unresolved": 0.017699115044247787
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.6321477565496704,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.04424778761061947,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 29887,
          "republican": 113
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "state_name": "Iowa",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "margin": -0.3068851829238326,
      "sigma": 4.480008077627056,
      "win_probability": 0.4726933987409502,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.47036666666666666,
      "interval80": [
        -6.048246548459243,
        5.4344761826115775
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -9.087539665521383,
        8.47376929967372
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 29,
        "unique_pollsters": 19,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-23",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 2,
        "partisan_poll_count": 5,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 14.293196603509118,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-and-polls",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.9287837541729026,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.0712162458270974,
        "poll_average": 0.504749758981167,
        "poll_sigma": 4.64859265728566,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": -0.30688518292383254,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 14.293196603509118,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": null
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.9287837541729026,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.0712162458270974,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "bbfbc9c9-b73c-4db5-ae91-458ccde4c6ec",
          "question_id": "0e881301-a827-4619-8aeb-a8d29024e7d5",
          "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
          "start_date": "10/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1219,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 50.5,
          "republican_pct": 46.4,
          "margin": 4.100000000000001,
          "url": "https://pollstergraph.com/poll/exclusive-atlas-us-ia-20261101-governor",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 1.3343098874266506,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
          "normalized_weight": 0.09025060670426605,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.08382329731117034
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "97e6dede-92cf-4a71-9cb3-3031e822dbee",
          "question_id": "d4215ceb-bfa7-48d0-af75-026d4e1bc581",
          "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
          "start_date": "10/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 705,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 47.6,
          "republican_pct": 46.9,
          "margin": 0.7000000000000028,
          "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/11/01/polls/times-siena-poll-crosstabs.html",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 1.0147274523685212,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7500494754065379,
          "normalized_weight": 0.06769242021365651,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06287162017508958
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "00eec46b-20c2-48d9-abfd-65e700524acb",
          "question_id": "e8c46c76-a6f6-41a1-a794-17d445b74485",
          "pollster": "GrayHouse",
          "start_date": "10/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-31",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 601,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 46.0,
          "republican_pct": 48.0,
          "margin": -2.0,
          "url": "https://www.grayhouse.com/post/grayhouse-poll-hinson-leads-in-iowa-by-2",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 3,
          "raw_weight": 0.9064781197585434,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.9064781197585434,
          "normalized_weight": 0.08181020027235088,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.07598398493859107
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "4be09574-d2f7-41cc-804a-911ff78f94cd",
          "question_id": "d36138b2-c2b8-4c7a-babd-30b84b4db84c",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "10/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-29",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 2016,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 49.0,
          "margin": 1.0,
          "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ia_20261026_lv.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 5,
          "raw_weight": 1.5479807801590098,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5693725051243602,
          "normalized_weight": 0.05138621402820134,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.04772668077784511
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "0d52e74a-4d26-4572-8b02-034b624ede40",
          "question_id": "f1fe613f-f0e6-48e0-ae6e-24facfaddda7",
          "pollster": "co/efficient",
          "start_date": "10/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-28",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1020,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 46.0,
          "republican_pct": 48.0,
          "margin": -2.0,
          "url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/ia/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 6,
          "raw_weight": 1.0695864451915529,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5238124735147733,
          "normalized_weight": 0.04727439353397058,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.04390768870272839
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "5fed9be9-1c44-4040-a61b-00465f70db64",
          "question_id": "b8d0a704-ecbe-420c-b927-2bcce5bcc78e",
          "pollster": "Echelon Insights",
          "start_date": "10/16/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-23",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 403,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 45.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.0,
          "margin": 2.0,
          "url": "https://netchoice.org/netchoice-echelon-insights-poll-voters-rank-ai-regulation-far-behind-cost-of-living-want-one-national-ai-standard/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 11,
          "raw_weight": 0.5700258084399398,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5700258084399398,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0514451750487943,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.04778144281590131
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "ddfffb93-53c9-4d2e-94f2-0aac6b754e1c",
          "question_id": "47cd4a04-bf1b-4438-9600-9d5b76f31dd8",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "start_date": "10/21/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-22",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1200,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 45.5,
          "republican_pct": 47.0,
          "margin": -1.5,
          "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-senate-surveys-mi-el-sayed-47-rogers-46-ia-hinson-47-turek-45-oh-brown-47-husted-44/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 12,
          "raw_weight": 0.9516951530106197,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7225614997747952,
          "normalized_weight": 0.06521161373581966,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06056748742122781
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "714e6be6-64cd-419c-a163-9bd660f5c5f7",
          "question_id": "06aac0e1-94c2-4b05-9bbb-9d820cdfadd4",
          "pollster": "co/efficient",
          "start_date": "10/15/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-19",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 863,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 45.0,
          "republican_pct": 48.0,
          "margin": -3.0,
          "url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/ia/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 15,
          "raw_weight": 0.730984801348264,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.35798785466785327,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03230862107653237,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.030007722375611504
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "b47129f8-00ec-4579-a7f4-09b3d64dd41b",
          "question_id": "6900d3cf-65c1-4fe7-8176-789612ef9fa4",
          "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
          "start_date": "10/13/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-15",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1094,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 44.2,
          "republican_pct": 45.9,
          "margin": -1.6999999999999957,
          "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/ia-senate-gen-1017/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 19,
          "raw_weight": 0.36061398728613,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.36061398728613,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03254563113861771,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.030227853470851877
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "3f0c3827-bc3f-49af-8870-5e4d81e49468",
          "question_id": "e2ec16ce-21f1-42b8-ad42-fe5ea07621cb",
          "pollster": "New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group",
          "start_date": "10/9/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-13",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 602,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 46.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": 2.0,
          "url": "https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/survey-research/battleground-district-project/senate-battleground-district-project-october",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 21,
          "raw_weight": 0.5008326400438906,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5008326400438906,
          "normalized_weight": 0.045200449621260415,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0419814432895374
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "022946f1-22b5-4b48-9ccd-8ca5bde7ff14",
          "question_id": "7a6c5501-c247-43dc-85a1-e638387de150",
          "pollster": "National Public Affairs",
          "start_date": "10/8/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-12",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 678,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 47.0,
          "republican_pct": 48.0,
          "margin": -1.0,
          "url": "https://backend.natpublicaffairs.com/media/Iowa_General_Election_Memo_101526.3.pdf",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 22,
          "raw_weight": 0.2571250971040863,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2571250971040863,
          "normalized_weight": 0.02320569601253711,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.021553073460719375
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "ed54f7fc-9dc3-4a6b-b04c-4653389d7c9b",
          "question_id": "6970e0ae-edc4-492e-ae92-e715f2bba05b",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "10/6/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-12",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 2245,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 47.0,
          "republican_pct": 46.0,
          "margin": 1.0,
          "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ia_20261006_lv.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 22,
          "raw_weight": 0.8832316336677132,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.32486695849984004,
          "normalized_weight": 0.029319440102780182,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.027231419648907733
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "c74bf5bc-f7c1-4c70-8c51-d954ded837fc",
          "question_id": "f98c9121-3e56-439d-9062-ddb5b96dfb05",
          "pollster": "Marist University",
          "start_date": "10/8/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-11",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1100,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 45.0,
          "margin": 3.0,
          "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/2026-midterm-elections-in-iowa-october-2026/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 23,
          "raw_weight": 0.6337547075795167,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6337547075795167,
          "normalized_weight": 0.05719674686073609,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05312340927579165
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "f4565aea-a1df-4f89-9dfa-75c19a146e7c",
          "question_id": "fc072182-5e11-4d7f-a9fc-a2c600820502",
          "pollster": "Emerson College",
          "start_date": "10/5/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-06",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 650,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 45.0,
          "republican_pct": 46.6,
          "margin": -1.6000000000000014,
          "url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/iowa-2026-poll-u-s-senate-race-tightens-sand-maintains-edge-for-governor/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 28,
          "raw_weight": 0.41305484967487155,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.41305484967487155,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03727845078529657,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.034623619470117536
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "50b4c2bf-e3d4-4ac1-bb5d-7db0280110e4",
          "question_id": "1b020382-ae3c-4835-9bc5-600bc8a31fee",
          "pollster": "CNN/SSRS",
          "start_date": "9/29/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-05",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 801,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 43.0,
          "republican_pct": 45.0,
          "margin": -2.0,
          "url": "https://edition.cnn.com/2026/10/08/politics/cnn-polls-ohio-iowa-senate-governor-midterms",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 29,
          "raw_weight": 0.44364188672818944,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.44364188672818944,
          "normalized_weight": 0.04003894943664437,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03718752577090558
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "26a91d1a-7c49-496c-8339-a4e347443e7c",
          "question_id": "941eb0b3-778d-4a79-a18a-c4a8938188f7",
          "pollster": "Suffolk University",
          "start_date": "10/1/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-04",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 500,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.6,
          "margin": 4.399999999999999,
          "url": "https://www.suffolk.edu/academics/research-at-suffolk/political-research-center/polls/other-states#collapse-October-7-2026-Iowa-Governor-and-US-Senate-and-Bellwether",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 30,
          "raw_weight": 0.3391302468684003,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3391302468684003,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03060671053164065,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.028427015510460518
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "b68ba449-48cd-4838-90aa-7d930fb4cead",
          "question_id": "777d5486-d8d7-4475-8a45-5e5d788709bb",
          "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
          "start_date": "9/22/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 606,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 46.96,
          "republican_pct": 47.83,
          "margin": -0.8699999999999974,
          "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/03/polls/times-siena-iowa-poll-crosstabs.html",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 33,
          "raw_weight": 0.3381532383599457,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.24995052459346212,
          "normalized_weight": 0.022558186490609526,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02095167713608077
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "e8c16f13-5ff3-4805-999c-018490b16211",
          "question_id": "d011b056-6d49-4369-8157-e82765e28017",
          "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
          "start_date": "9/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-29",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 738,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 48.8,
          "republican_pct": 51.2,
          "margin": -2.4000000000000057,
          "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/f/quantus-insights-hinson-holds-narrow-edge-in-iowa-senate-race",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 35,
          "raw_weight": 0.34933000997631924,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.34933000997631924,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03152724534037012,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.029281993285959113
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "552fee7f-3f21-450d-bd89-a618fa6a04c2",
          "question_id": "4e339ba4-9751-48fd-b341-340b6ccd9990",
          "pollster": "Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research",
          "start_date": "9/24/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-28",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1008,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 49.0,
          "republican_pct": 47.0,
          "margin": 2.0,
          "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-turek-hinson-close-iowa-senate-race",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 36,
          "raw_weight": 0.39500557003589143,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.39500557003589143,
          "normalized_weight": 0.035649492347303656,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03311066933668685
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "88eb5386-5920-4931-bf47-30dd37462322",
          "question_id": "95784b09-7945-45f9-8f07-9cef31c93714",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "start_date": "9/22/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-23",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1200,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 47.4,
          "republican_pct": 45.7,
          "margin": 1.6999999999999957,
          "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/ia-topline-tabs/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 41,
          "raw_weight": 0.36541785855620185,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.27743850022520483,
          "normalized_weight": 0.02503899296844639,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.023255809889942546
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "b37898ae-7ed5-485f-805b-db8d700cda68",
          "question_id": "8a39f84a-4da7-44ef-8398-1f8154a5c8e1",
          "pollster": "Marist University",
          "start_date": "9/17/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-20",
          "population": "rv",
          "sample_size": 1050,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 42.0,
          "margin": 8.0,
          "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/2026-midterm-elections-in-iowa-september-2026/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 44,
          "raw_weight": 0.30959184305093124,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.30959184305093124,
          "normalized_weight": 0.027940851666038456,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0259510091051714
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "6cdc2339-d8cc-4430-9faa-6cc14593be3b",
          "question_id": "195b4db7-1c76-4a6e-823e-939e4b189b39",
          "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
          "start_date": "9/16/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-18",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1089,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 42.1,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": -1.8999999999999986,
          "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/ia-senate-0918/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 46,
          "raw_weight": 0.14757380695562936,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.14757380695562936,
          "normalized_weight": 0.013318625611403786,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.012370123095782979
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "efaddaa3-267a-497a-9cc4-a840834841aa",
          "question_id": "b5203d5a-6dcd-4a1d-b566-8e5fb30c3e4e",
          "pollster": "co/efficient",
          "start_date": "9/14/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-16",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 831,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 42.0,
          "republican_pct": 46.0,
          "margin": -4.0,
          "url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/ia/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 48,
          "raw_weight": 0.24135501385380248,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.11819967181737347,
          "normalized_weight": 0.010667592093763093,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.00990788623283046
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "3e3eb534-bebb-49dd-9c2a-0297381037f5",
          "question_id": "89ad2f64-2dc7-45a4-9e0d-72f74db5a7b0",
          "pollster": "Cygnal Political",
          "start_date": "9/9/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-11",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 500,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 42.9,
          "republican_pct": 42.9,
          "margin": 0.0,
          "url": "https://itrfoundation.org/new-poll-iowa-voters-support-supermajority-requirement-to-raise-income-taxes/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 53,
          "raw_weight": 0.07936646027404516,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.07936646027404516,
          "normalized_weight": 0.007162871191702605,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.006652758396086479
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "35aeda0e-b9e6-4fcd-9284-7518c4b38581",
          "question_id": "752a8d42-8ede-4847-afcc-9a51f9e491fc",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "9/3/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-08",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 2127,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 45.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.0,
          "margin": 2.0,
          "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/iowa_election_20260903.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 56,
          "raw_weight": 0.28753632487625586,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.10576053637579966,
          "normalized_weight": 0.009544952573284518,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.008865196884417502
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "499bff96-0834-41dc-bc89-d2dd01eacac1",
          "question_id": "ffa6f33b-3f61-4b91-86d4-7727d0348e28",
          "pollster": "Emerson College",
          "start_date": "8/31/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 750,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 45.05,
          "republican_pct": 49.47,
          "margin": -4.420000000000002,
          "url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/iowa-2026-poll-hinson-leads-turek/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 63,
          "raw_weight": 0.1397542485937369,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.1397542485937369,
          "normalized_weight": 0.012612905725083574,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.011714661930372018
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "da7271f6-a289-40b8-bd8f-dcf49de9142e",
          "question_id": "777346dd-ae6e-41e8-980f-7fdf5a60d48b",
          "pollster": "Global Strategy Group",
          "start_date": "8/27/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-31",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 46.0,
          "republican_pct": 42.0,
          "margin": 4.0,
          "url": "https://www.semafor.com/article/09/09/2026/democratic-turek-holds-narrow-lead-in-iowa-senate-race-internal-polling-shows",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 64,
          "raw_weight": 0.06982559159753576,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.06982559159753576,
          "normalized_weight": 0.006301802005161904,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.005853011324408599
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "4a8cbf1d-25af-407c-afde-6ed939b8a7b8",
          "question_id": "8001aa00-3ab0-4387-b34a-2d3de2be4c9f",
          "pollster": "Abacus Data",
          "start_date": "8/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-28",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 323,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 41.0,
          "margin": 7.0,
          "url": "https://abacusdata.ca/the-trade-war-next-door-what-american-voters-think-about-tariffs-canada-and-the-battle-for-the-u-s-senate/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 67,
          "raw_weight": 0.08037048742049747,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.08037048742049747,
          "normalized_weight": 0.007253485250817479,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0067369192620920365
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "poll_id": "bfa1e330-e1e0-4fb7-9be9-1ee513cb362e",
          "question_id": "ae0fa27a-89cf-4c5d-9285-460e5ec27a36",
          "pollster": "Suffolk University",
          "start_date": "8/20/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-23",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 500,
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "opposition_pct": 40.8,
          "republican_pct": 45.4,
          "margin": -4.600000000000001,
          "url": "https://www.suffolk.edu/academics/research-at-suffolk/political-research-center/polls/other-states#collapse-August-26-2026-Iowa-Governor-and-US-Senate-General-Election",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 72,
          "raw_weight": 0.08478256171710007,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.08478256171710007,
          "normalized_weight": 0.007651677632910161,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0071067538776151285
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.1421,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.7012,
            "R": 0.26616666666666666,
            "unresolved": 0.032633333333333334
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.5896666666666667,
            "R": 0.36443333333333333,
            "unresolved": 0.0459
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.7012,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.5896666666666667,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 14111,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.8784636099496846,
              "R": 0.09914251293317271,
              "unresolved": 0.022393877117142656
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 15889,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.409213921580968,
              "R": 0.5384857448549311,
              "unresolved": 0.05230033356410095
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.8784636099496846,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.409213921580968,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 14111,
          "republican": 15889
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "KS",
      "state_name": "Kansas",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
      "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
      "margin": 2.380345236792601,
      "sigma": 4.534437706949337,
      "win_probability": 0.7001904243496675,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.7019,
      "interval80": [
        -3.4307705054127915,
        8.191460978997993
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -6.506989358968487,
        11.26767983255369
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 17,
        "unique_pollsters": 12,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-16",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 2,
        "partisan_poll_count": 4,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 9.47158609950883,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-and-polls",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.9270427657236977,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.0729572342763023,
        "poll_average": 3.7790709435583025,
        "poll_sigma": 4.709486490623141,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": 2.380345236792601,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 9.47158609950883,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": null
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.9270427657236977,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.0729572342763023,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "KS",
          "poll_id": "ee8d2d9a-9050-4dde-8ff3-225b1609c81e",
          "question_id": "17f5a5c0-ece7-4555-be7e-baf9dede3866",
          "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
          "start_date": "10/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 2038,
          "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
          "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
          "opposition_pct": 51.9,
          "republican_pct": 44.9,
          "margin": 7.0,
          "url": "https://pollstergraph.com/poll/exclusive-atlas-us-ks-20261101-senate",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 1.7091093467421696,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
          "normalized_weight": 0.11659663160505526,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.10809006383721753
        },
        {
          "state": "KS",
          "poll_id": "e5e20345-3b79-49b1-bd66-d5e7bfda599d",
          "question_id": "07291bee-5ea2-4d79-afff-618eeab48de9",
          "pollster": "Survey 160",
          "start_date": "10/27/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1267,
          "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
          "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": 6.0,
          "url": "https://www.survey160.com/methodological-research-blog/survey-160-pre-election-surveys-in-four-states",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 1.36032650121338,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
          "normalized_weight": 0.11659663160505526,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.10809006383721753
        },
        {
          "state": "KS",
          "poll_id": "488d5c04-cc06-4cf9-a292-24dca14264b6",
          "question_id": "c3889839-1b75-41b1-9f15-6681453f8428",
          "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
          "start_date": "10/27/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 736,
          "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
          "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
          "opposition_pct": 49.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.9,
          "margin": 5.100000000000001,
          "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/11/01/polls/times-siena-poll-crosstabs.html",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 1.0367970637288149,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7602818033281149,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0886462973386753,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.08217890865601081
        },
        {
          "state": "KS",
          "poll_id": "d12ca396-9967-4c5a-b3af-5754f8a2ff05",
          "question_id": "e1b45bb5-0d9f-4215-bc23-0a30e5356d52",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "10/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-29",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 2086,
          "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
          "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 49.0,
          "margin": 1.0,
          "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ks_20261026_lv.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 5,
          "raw_weight": 1.5479807801590098,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6953337889788204,
          "normalized_weight": 0.08107357763611076,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.07515867363889504
        },
        {
          "state": "KS",
          "poll_id": "03a5f4fe-8984-49ba-b8ce-2044bab54108",
          "question_id": "83bd4e5f-7776-44ec-8285-e157b843da0a",
          "pollster": "Emerson College",
          "start_date": "10/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-28",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
          "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
          "opposition_pct": 49.5,
          "republican_pct": 47.1,
          "margin": 2.3999999999999986,
          "url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2026-kansas-poll-hamilton-maintains-edge-over-marshall/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 6,
          "raw_weight": 0.9472416772335545,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8051131388410013,
          "normalized_weight": 0.09387348004983395,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.08702473057350642
        },
        {
          "state": "KS",
          "poll_id": "57631c63-27a4-4cb7-adcb-99233e0056d8",
          "question_id": "dafb371e-1151-4a4b-8704-8529f8a5ac93",
          "pollster": "The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government",
          "start_date": "10/22/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-26",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 801,
          "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
          "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
          "opposition_pct": 52.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.0,
          "margin": 9.0,
          "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/tablet/2026/10/30/oct-22-26-2026-washington-post-schar-school-kansas-poll/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 8,
          "raw_weight": 0.8872837734563789,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8872837734563789,
          "normalized_weight": 0.10345429926283672,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.09590655971462726
        },
        {
          "state": "KS",
          "poll_id": "cc6fe4a3-b999-4be6-9fd5-388faf9938b1",
          "question_id": "cb68d6dc-7057-485e-833b-30c3e5026cd3",
          "pollster": "CNN/SSRS",
          "start_date": "10/20/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-26",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 838,
          "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
          "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
          "opposition_pct": 49.0,
          "republican_pct": 45.0,
          "margin": 4.0,
          "url": "https://edition.cnn.com/2026/10/29/politics/cnn-polls-michigan-maine-texas-kansas-senate-races-midterms-vis",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 8,
          "raw_weight": 0.9075452551507608,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.9075452551507608,
          "normalized_weight": 0.10581671977972915,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.09809662456440961
        },
        {
          "state": "KS",
          "poll_id": "25dc3468-add3-4d3e-969a-136fbc0cf6bd",
          "question_id": "7e295969-0c81-4996-9535-d3555a2e2fb5",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "start_date": "10/13/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-14",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1200,
          "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
          "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
          "opposition_pct": 46.6,
          "republican_pct": 47.7,
          "margin": -1.1000000000000014,
          "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-senate-surveys-texas-paxton-49-talarico-48-kansas-marshall-48-hamilton-47-maine-jackson-49-collins-47/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 20,
          "raw_weight": 0.7308357171124036,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5329591454925267,
          "normalized_weight": 0.062141241147537184,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.057607588058916116
        },
        {
          "state": "KS",
          "poll_id": "5dde9606-4591-429b-9843-a121714b0a10",
          "question_id": "674ac6cf-b8e6-407a-a19c-354466ca3ccd",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "start_date": "10/9/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-10",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1200,
          "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
          "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
          "opposition_pct": 47.5,
          "republican_pct": 46.7,
          "margin": 0.7999999999999972,
          "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-u-s-senate-surveys-alaska-ranks-choice-peltola-50-sullivan-48-kansas-hamilton-48-marshall-47-michigan-el-sayed-48-rogers-46/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 24,
          "raw_weight": 0.6404433448821364,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.46704085450747324,
          "normalized_weight": 0.05445539045751807,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.050482475778301415
        },
        {
          "state": "KS",
          "poll_id": "83a74e52-1bb7-4aa4-8d8c-6c58999faa29",
          "question_id": "a5624c69-c101-4fb6-951c-199b3a658c3e",
          "pollster": "GBAO",
          "start_date": "9/30/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-04",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 600,
          "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
          "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
          "opposition_pct": 49.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": 5.0,
          "url": "https://x.com/sambbenson/status/2107792740259914148",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 30,
          "raw_weight": 0.18574928614211855,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.18574928614211855,
          "normalized_weight": 0.021657741087214594,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02007765219681918
        },
        {
          "state": "KS",
          "poll_id": "d25ef4d2-1ed1-441e-9934-82e258d3931e",
          "question_id": "8bde19c1-0c6a-406d-b961-f44c53d4a2da",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "9/24/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-04",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 2253,
          "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
          "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 45.0,
          "margin": 3.0,
          "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ks_20260921_lv.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 30,
          "raw_weight": 0.6782604937368006,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3046662110211796,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03552305396894451,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03293139019832249
        },
        {
          "state": "KS",
          "poll_id": "b53ee011-b0ec-4d53-b00c-4c9309bc24d6",
          "question_id": "889de9a4-3239-4fb6-b6bf-7a6004733535",
          "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
          "start_date": "9/29/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1095,
          "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
          "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
          "opposition_pct": 44.4,
          "republican_pct": 43.5,
          "margin": 0.8999999999999986,
          "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/ks-senate-general-1001/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 33,
          "raw_weight": 0.2272763796076287,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2272763796076287,
          "normalized_weight": 0.026499660305641378,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.024566318380480272
        },
        {
          "state": "KS",
          "poll_id": "be8c4cbb-f0fa-41c9-860b-2f425d3e4829",
          "question_id": "f80026a3-26be-4a94-8b93-10e314fce54b",
          "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
          "start_date": "9/22/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-30",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 605,
          "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
          "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
          "opposition_pct": 46.39,
          "republican_pct": 46.67,
          "margin": -0.28000000000000114,
          "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/03/polls/times-siena-kansas-poll-crosstabs.html",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 34,
          "raw_weight": 0.3269039471204006,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.239718196671885,
          "normalized_weight": 0.02795033426637996,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.025911155181206718
        },
        {
          "state": "KS",
          "poll_id": "7a2a5a88-c265-4ab1-a1b3-80926e34f23b",
          "question_id": "a98485ac-259f-45a1-823c-a2c361cb7a57",
          "pollster": "Global Strategy Group",
          "start_date": "9/13/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-16",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
          "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
          "opposition_pct": 49.0,
          "republican_pct": 47.0,
          "margin": 2.0,
          "url": "https://www.washingtonsun.com/newsletters/they-love-stonks",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 48,
          "raw_weight": 0.11840520965419432,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.11840520965419432,
          "normalized_weight": 0.013805648610169429,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01279842667018099
        },
        {
          "state": "KS",
          "poll_id": "8b579ddd-2169-412e-8ce9-074cc2643108",
          "question_id": "8c872235-9531-44b6-ad7e-48d891628dba",
          "pollster": "Emerson College",
          "start_date": "9/15/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-16",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 750,
          "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
          "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
          "opposition_pct": 44.75,
          "republican_pct": 43.3,
          "margin": 1.4500000000000028,
          "url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/kansas-2026/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 48,
          "raw_weight": 0.22929070254744616,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.19488686115899867,
          "normalized_weight": 0.02272315155522132,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.021065333263711118
        },
        {
          "state": "KS",
          "poll_id": "8f9d28d7-4b18-4a97-b827-bd29bb7d211a",
          "question_id": "6d56ec46-f347-4bdf-b651-ddf7ec3a41cd",
          "pollster": "co/efficient",
          "start_date": "9/8/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-10",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 915,
          "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
          "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
          "opposition_pct": 44.0,
          "republican_pct": 49.0,
          "margin": -5.0,
          "url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/ks/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 54,
          "raw_weight": 0.20775801639185143,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.20775801639185143,
          "normalized_weight": 0.024223884900237736,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.022456577254488908
        },
        {
          "state": "KS",
          "poll_id": "3a7ff75c-d551-4cbd-aadc-b455292f1ada",
          "question_id": "4e5cc697-380c-4c35-9625-27e4ff83d0bb",
          "pollster": "Global Strategy Group",
          "start_date": "8/12/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-16",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
          "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
          "opposition_pct": 44.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.0,
          "margin": 1.0,
          "url": "https://www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-digest-massachusetts-could",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 79,
          "raw_weight": 0.04255917478515071,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.04255917478515071,
          "normalized_weight": 0.004962256423839374,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.004600223919386239
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.14936666666666668,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.6676,
            "R": 0.295,
            "unresolved": 0.0374
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.5531333333333334,
            "R": 0.3983333333333333,
            "unresolved": 0.04853333333333333
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.6676,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.5531333333333334,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 21057,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.7834924253217458,
              "R": 0.18283706130977823,
              "unresolved": 0.03367051336847604
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 8943,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.26836632002683664,
              "R": 0.6826568265682657,
              "unresolved": 0.048976853404897686
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.7834924253217458,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.26836632002683664,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 21057,
          "republican": 8943
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "KY",
      "state_name": "Kentucky",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Charles Booker",
      "republican_name": "Andy Barr",
      "margin": -11.333676665136048,
      "sigma": 6.193908713059665,
      "win_probability": 0.033639170682328134,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.03336666666666667,
      "interval80": [
        -19.271490073198006,
        -3.3958632570740903
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -23.473514666261828,
        0.8061613359897315
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 1,
        "unique_pollsters": 1,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-08-27",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-27",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 68,
        "partisan_poll_count": 1,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 1.0,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-and-polls",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.863870865699537,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.13612913430046303,
        "poll_average": -9.0,
        "poll_sigma": 6.664082832618454,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": -11.333676665136046,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 1.0,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": null
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.863870865699537,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.13612913430046303,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "KY",
          "poll_id": "8e8d7685-88cb-4337-ae68-848158d5d113",
          "question_id": "84c909b8-7800-40a9-ad74-0ddcd9d08ef8",
          "pollster": "Global Strategy Group",
          "start_date": "8/24/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-27",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 600,
          "opposition_name": "Charles Booker",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "afb7e4af-f8c0-49f4-9bed-0d2d4a234c22",
          "republican_name": "Andy Barr",
          "opposition_pct": 40.0,
          "republican_pct": 49.0,
          "margin": -9.0,
          "url": "https://fox56news.com/news/kentucky/new-poll-shows-charles-booker-trailing-just-behind-andy-barr-in-race-for-senate/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 68,
          "raw_weight": 0.052991499492345946,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.052991499492345946,
          "normalized_weight": 1.0,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.863870865699537
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.12366666666666666,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.7274666666666667,
            "R": 0.2456,
            "unresolved": 0.026933333333333333
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.629,
            "R": 0.33263333333333334,
            "unresolved": 0.03836666666666667
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.7274666666666667,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.629,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 1001,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.958041958041958,
              "R": 0.03296703296703297,
              "unresolved": 0.008991008991008992
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 28999,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.6186075381909721,
              "R": 0.3421497293010104,
              "unresolved": 0.03924273250801752
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.958041958041958,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.6186075381909721,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 1001,
          "republican": 28999
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "LA",
      "state_name": "Louisiana",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Jamie Davis",
      "republican_name": "Julia Letlow",
      "margin": -3.166761103558491,
      "sigma": 5.708663565136615,
      "win_probability": 0.28954002621533803,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.28686666666666666,
      "interval80": [
        -10.482707832626742,
        4.1491856255097606
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -14.355536091082282,
        8.0220138839653
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 2,
        "unique_pollsters": 1,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-29",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-09-19",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 5,
        "partisan_poll_count": 2,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 1.0,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-and-polls",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.884364713701989,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.11563528629801101,
        "poll_average": -0.8417592668271162,
        "poll_sigma": 6.070420084310475,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": -3.166761103558489,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 1.0,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": null
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.884364713701989,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.11563528629801101,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "LA",
          "poll_id": "8336d95c-e120-482d-ba1c-42b88a343483",
          "question_id": "991ffdf0-cfe0-44eb-8299-13c908b761a7",
          "pollster": "Hart Research Associates",
          "start_date": "10/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-29",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 502,
          "opposition_name": "Jamie Davis",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "fa6b2ecd-5ecc-4d0c-b1fc-65c92e59bd7c",
          "republican_name": "Julia Letlow",
          "opposition_pct": 45.0,
          "republican_pct": 45.0,
          "margin": 0.0,
          "url": "https://www.perdidostreet.news/p/new-poll-shows-toss-up-in-louisiana-senate-contest-as-turnout-in-early-vote-buoys-democrats-hopes-of",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 5,
          "raw_weight": 0.38776841298356346,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.38776841298356346,
          "normalized_weight": 0.789560183293221,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.6982591654485993
        },
        {
          "state": "LA",
          "poll_id": "fd9a2472-db8c-46ca-87c5-5459d7092293",
          "question_id": "3cfaf969-9731-4ab1-a637-52ec0c0c327a",
          "pollster": "Hart Research Associates",
          "start_date": "9/17/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-19",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 500,
          "opposition_name": "Jamie Davis",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "fa6b2ecd-5ecc-4d0c-b1fc-65c92e59bd7c",
          "republican_name": "Julia Letlow",
          "opposition_pct": 44.0,
          "republican_pct": 48.0,
          "margin": -4.0,
          "url": "https://bsky.app/profile/deecherrywriter.bsky.social/post/3mw7hmiyunc2g",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 45,
          "raw_weight": 0.10335110037157863,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.10335110037157863,
          "normalized_weight": 0.21043981670677905,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.1861055482533897
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.1318,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.7155333333333334,
            "R": 0.25656666666666667,
            "unresolved": 0.0279
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.6099666666666667,
            "R": 0.3478,
            "unresolved": 0.04223333333333333
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.7155333333333334,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.6099666666666667,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 8606,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.8922844527074134,
              "R": 0.09226121310713456,
              "unresolved": 0.01545433418545201
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 21394,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.5243993643077498,
              "R": 0.4282041693932878,
              "unresolved": 0.047396466298962325
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.8922844527074134,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.5243993643077498,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 8606,
          "republican": 21394
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "state_name": "Maine",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "margin": 3.4485141132146633,
      "sigma": 4.461986620032906,
      "win_probability": 0.7801989145295674,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.7799,
      "interval80": [
        -2.2697518251275697,
        9.166780051556897
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -5.296818961549439,
        12.193847187978767
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 30,
        "unique_pollsters": 21,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-10",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 2,
        "partisan_poll_count": 2,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 17.15411534645048,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-and-polls",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.929355556349535,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.07064444365046496,
        "poll_average": 3.358720390982072,
        "poll_sigma": 4.6284685144190645,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": 3.4485141132146633,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 17.15411534645048,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": null
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.929355556349535,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.07064444365046496,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "dde77adc-e56c-41eb-84ae-188896f36496",
          "question_id": "7cfe8bdb-d5fa-4c38-854d-d79b85c23981",
          "pollster": "Emerson College",
          "start_date": "10/31/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 600,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 49.4,
          "republican_pct": 50.6,
          "margin": -1.2000000000000028,
          "url": "https://pollvault.substack.com/p/new-poll-vault-emerson-senate-and",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 0.9361177424536049,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.9361177424536049,
          "normalized_weight": 0.06451230031673594,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05995486475224841
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "67dd80f7-8245-428f-b578-85171441c671",
          "question_id": "af460b29-6202-4560-bf0a-2d910903d416",
          "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
          "start_date": "10/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 967,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 53.1,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": 9.100000000000001,
          "url": "https://pollstergraph.com/poll/exclusive-atlas-us-me-20261101-governor",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 1.1884149006282356,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
          "normalized_weight": 0.06891472876867649,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06404628609549065
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "1d977920-6c4e-4f40-9b3d-b5aa4c912583",
          "question_id": "df267f5f-6020-4e76-b018-73697a24ed2d",
          "pollster": "Survey 160",
          "start_date": "10/27/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1322,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 47.0,
          "margin": 3.0,
          "url": "https://www.survey160.com/methodological-research-blog/survey-160-pre-election-surveys-in-four-states",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 1.3895384830148734,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
          "normalized_weight": 0.06891472876867649,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06404628609549065
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "38454df3-a47e-4923-b5eb-d570b5b30f3a",
          "question_id": "7c5ba4db-ebc3-4e1c-8f12-a9dff57beaed",
          "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
          "start_date": "10/27/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 714,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 50.9,
          "republican_pct": 45.0,
          "margin": 5.899999999999999,
          "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/11/01/polls/times-siena-poll-crosstabs.html",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 1.0211838957829076,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8008585859286407,
          "normalized_weight": 0.05519095223133807,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0512920181164158
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "874e66b5-2a4c-4aca-98bf-0a195be794af",
          "question_id": "b8779839-d6b0-49fc-b36c-017bedddbe74",
          "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
          "start_date": "10/27/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-31",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1633,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 54.0,
          "republican_pct": 45.0,
          "margin": 9.0,
          "url": "https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1013/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 3,
          "raw_weight": 1.4942153104335807,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8075118522744132,
          "normalized_weight": 0.05564946027698275,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.051718135116266654
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "29bc618a-daa1-4fb2-9acf-5bee75f2bbbf",
          "question_id": "edc71465-e9f0-49be-b99c-84d13122c141",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "10/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-29",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1501,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 52.0,
          "republican_pct": 47.0,
          "margin": 5.0,
          "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_me_20261026_lv.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 5,
          "raw_weight": 1.3410374692953746,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6577127284582924,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0453260942894094,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.04212405757548555
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "ace5053f-e892-4ca2-a2d9-b96249dc8c27",
          "question_id": "c29ddc73-2224-4f76-8907-7efbc30e620c",
          "pollster": "Data for Progress",
          "start_date": "10/23/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-27",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 652,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 45.0,
          "margin": 5.0,
          "url": "https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/30/democratic-senate-candidates-lead-in-maine-michigan-and-texas",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 7,
          "raw_weight": 0.8273796612053106,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8273796612053106,
          "normalized_weight": 0.05701864494068343,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.052990594491145446
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "d65e372a-89eb-4af1-9f7b-88ee5d8975a4",
          "question_id": "75fb90ed-fca3-438f-b345-1bfd969fdab7",
          "pollster": "CNN/SSRS",
          "start_date": "10/20/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-26",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 783,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 49.0,
          "republican_pct": 45.0,
          "margin": 4.0,
          "url": "https://edition.cnn.com/2026/10/29/politics/cnn-polls-michigan-maine-texas-kansas-senate-races-midterms-vis",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 8,
          "raw_weight": 0.8772576462508207,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8308910959147464,
          "normalized_weight": 0.05726063451127312,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.053215488843151616
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "0102d73f-4f7c-473f-9e04-309aa37c777b",
          "question_id": "affd988a-3dbb-42da-8b36-6409a6910f4e",
          "pollster": "Marist University",
          "start_date": "10/22/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-25",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1449,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 49.0,
          "republican_pct": 47.0,
          "margin": 2.0,
          "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-midterm-elections-in-maine-october-2026/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 9,
          "raw_weight": 1.1546376434886958,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6624401895563133,
          "normalized_weight": 0.04565188598874398,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.042426833901474705
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "8d34f2d5-7511-416a-a60c-d917478e9979",
          "question_id": "118ab9ff-c3da-421b-a6cd-f1507ff6e7c0",
          "pollster": "Echelon Insights",
          "start_date": "10/16/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-23",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 413,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 51.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": 7.0,
          "url": "https://netchoice.org/netchoice-echelon-insights-poll-voters-rank-ai-regulation-far-behind-cost-of-living-want-one-national-ai-standard/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 11,
          "raw_weight": 0.577054752262417,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.577054752262417,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03976757173684028,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03695821375616124
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "d5992a57-6957-4dd3-931e-75be420bd943",
          "question_id": "0d156514-e62f-4616-8a22-f23d59463ac4",
          "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
          "start_date": "10/21/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-23",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1077,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 46.5,
          "republican_pct": 47.0,
          "margin": -0.5,
          "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/me-senate-gen-1025/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 11,
          "raw_weight": 0.46592911779185703,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.46592911779185703,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03210937877805455,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02984102957831684
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "d5cc3c87-4ce8-4d34-aa26-9420e7d5fdef",
          "question_id": "c3f69e5a-d0fc-4e59-8b8d-47e08e73ca3f",
          "pollster": "Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research",
          "start_date": "10/16/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-20",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1514,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 49.0,
          "republican_pct": 49.0,
          "margin": 0.0,
          "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-nail-biter-maine-senate-race",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 14,
          "raw_weight": 1.0006925086908263,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.9276322885476331,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0639275275623268,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.059411402943736445
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "c0ecc74f-857a-4e02-951c-fd42f1c018b1",
          "question_id": "41cb29d6-d915-468e-9694-f023f922824d",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "start_date": "10/13/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-14",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1200,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 49.3,
          "republican_pct": 46.8,
          "margin": 2.5,
          "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-senate-surveys-texas-paxton-49-talarico-48-kansas-marshall-48-hamilton-47-maine-jackson-49-collins-47/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 20,
          "raw_weight": 0.7308357171124036,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6666666666666666,
          "normalized_weight": 0.04594315251245099,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.04269752406366043
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "b2cf5601-98ad-4a7f-acd3-1be546e39bc3",
          "question_id": "92880d7d-9424-4174-992b-89b9e371f90c",
          "pollster": "Suffolk University",
          "start_date": "10/8/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-11",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 500,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 49.0,
          "republican_pct": 47.0,
          "margin": 2.0,
          "url": "https://www.suffolk.edu/academics/research-at-suffolk/political-research-center/polls/other-states#collapse-October-14-2026-Maine-US-Senate-and-Governor-Statewide-and-Bellwether",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 23,
          "raw_weight": 0.4272773366855424,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4272773366855424,
          "normalized_weight": 0.02944570176668662,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.027365526547481533
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "651aa7dd-de1a-4b7b-a3da-9cf1c9916f15",
          "question_id": "af612594-c904-4416-8528-c46abeecc093",
          "pollster": "The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government",
          "start_date": "9/30/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-05",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 46.0,
          "margin": 4.0,
          "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/09/poll-democrat-troy-jackson-narrowly-leads-susan-collins-maine-senate-race/?pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJyZWFzb24iOiJnaWZ0IiwibmJmIjoxNzkxNTE4NDAwLCJpc3MiOiJzdWJzY3JpcHRpb25zIiwiZXhwIjoxNzkyOTAwNzk5LCJpYXQiOjE3OTE1MTg0MDAsImp0aSI6IjE4NjJkMzQ0LWQ0ZmMtNGIyMy05NzAwLTgwNWU1YTNjMWZlNCIsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lndhc2hpbmd0b25wb3N0LmNvbS9wb2xpdGljcy8yMDI2LzEwLzA5L3BvbGwtZGVtb2NyYXQtdHJveS1qYWNrc29uLW5hcnJvd2x5LWxlYWRzLXN1c2FuLWNvbGxpbnMtbWFpbmUtc2VuYXRlLXJhY2UvIn0.2_6lAaaYMcbP0y7_Ioe4GYgRcQnYJkY6IAE55nzmhAs",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 29,
          "raw_weight": 0.4433648702249206,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4433648702249206,
          "normalized_weight": 0.030554369777109857,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02839587332311535
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "3ee37c1b-1cc6-4e47-8cca-03f4c7c46fdb",
          "question_id": "4c6d07ef-7f9b-4992-8a53-5ca36485f320",
          "pollster": "Marist University",
          "start_date": "10/1/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-04",
          "population": "rv",
          "sample_size": 1505,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 51.0,
          "republican_pct": 47.0,
          "margin": 4.0,
          "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-maine-october-2026/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 30,
          "raw_weight": 0.5883689881923388,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.33755981044368666,
          "normalized_weight": 0.023262842779932517,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02161945219401595
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "fc373698-f6f7-4370-84e1-641b97ec8fea",
          "question_id": "00f3e1e8-ee3d-400d-ba59-1658f7a758fd",
          "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
          "start_date": "9/29/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1091,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 46.2,
          "republican_pct": 45.9,
          "margin": 0.30000000000000426,
          "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/me-senate-gen-1002/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 33,
          "raw_weight": 0.22686088313655126,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.22686088313655126,
          "normalized_weight": 0.015634056229577847,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01452959702523923
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "bfa1f56c-0587-479f-b529-5d9e30f438d4",
          "question_id": "66958257-f11e-4202-9dcb-35ae34872b03",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "9/23/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1136,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 50.0,
          "margin": 0.0,
          "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/maine-senate-poll-2026-10-02/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 33,
          "raw_weight": 0.462984449568728,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.22707103457713884,
          "normalized_weight": 0.015648538759106285,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.014543056444526484
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "03c7e817-549b-4951-9dbe-e32ca29e4962",
          "question_id": "0e9cf369-afd2-4271-8759-49f5e11f7bcd",
          "pollster": "co/efficient",
          "start_date": "9/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-30",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1240,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 46.0,
          "republican_pct": 48.0,
          "margin": -2.0,
          "url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/me/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 34,
          "raw_weight": 0.4680080461221046,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4680080461221046,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03225264756006308,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.029974177216927897
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "85b5bf4c-d037-4e45-8b65-76e7929e1e84",
          "question_id": "962fe805-0fe7-4d40-9055-d34ca7144cfc",
          "pollster": "Maine People's Resource Center",
          "start_date": "9/25/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-29",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 684,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 49.3,
          "republican_pct": 46.5,
          "margin": 2.799999999999997,
          "url": "https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nVC9doKmSak5hQ8ajaaKftWiXSEZf-Us/view?link_id=0&can_id=43449815c7c9cdc13604b107d8c0a515&source=email-polling-jackson-leads-collins-mainers-demand-childcare-ai-regulation&email_referrer=email_3433131&email_subject=polling-jackson-leads-collins-mainers-demand-childcare-ai-regulation",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 35,
          "raw_weight": 0.33630689102772515,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.33630689102772515,
          "normalized_weight": 0.02317649817821252,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.021539207358646683
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "f2282209-2c6d-4984-8716-27f5d2f2a1b5",
          "question_id": "d8d93f85-d404-4485-9cb3-f8e3ee7013a5",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "start_date": "9/22/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-23",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1200,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 46.4,
          "republican_pct": 45.6,
          "margin": 0.7999999999999972,
          "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/me-top-line-tabs/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 41,
          "raw_weight": 0.36541785855620185,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.33333333333333337,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0229715762562255,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.021348762031830223
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "4042f88a-a07b-4ffb-ac4d-b1d2c8311d21",
          "question_id": "c5c6a7d5-972b-4f2e-b531-3846a71b00b1",
          "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research",
          "start_date": "9/20/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-22",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 982,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 47.0,
          "margin": 3.0,
          "url": "https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/voter-research/politics/2026-midterm-election-poll-maine/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 42,
          "raw_weight": 0.3198306843732581,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3198306843732581,
          "normalized_weight": 0.022041044865483264,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02048396751348626
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "18ea0516-1c68-4a62-9dbf-aca3c70b45f4",
          "question_id": "41905a8d-6e49-4ab6-9590-69d5a4a13db7",
          "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
          "start_date": "9/15/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-22",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 619,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 45.92,
          "republican_pct": 48.66,
          "margin": -2.739999999999995,
          "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/09/24/polls/times-siena-poll-me-crosstabs.html",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 42,
          "raw_weight": 0.25392748308654317,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.19914141407135927,
          "normalized_weight": 0.01372377653733842,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.012754267979074845
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "f25eb113-894c-4eaa-b591-a9257b79e807",
          "question_id": "5ccd46ea-0758-46ca-9fa6-3a66f45d8a04",
          "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
          "start_date": "9/17/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-21",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1301,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 51.0,
          "republican_pct": 47.0,
          "margin": 4.0,
          "url": "https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1007/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 43,
          "raw_weight": 0.3561789670312261,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.19248814772558676,
          "normalized_weight": 0.013265268491693745,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.012328150979223998
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "9dedd226-93bf-4881-9d16-8c5d9f6a4d06",
          "question_id": "a1f97ee7-f4a3-461c-9e46-803a0590525d",
          "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
          "start_date": "9/14/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-15",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 621,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 47.4,
          "republican_pct": 47.6,
          "margin": -0.20000000000000284,
          "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/f/quantus-survey-collins-and-jackson-even-in-maine-senate-race",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 49,
          "raw_weight": 0.20186770781265959,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.20186770781265959,
          "normalized_weight": 0.013911658331063873,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01292887696801051
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "75b56fcb-48d9-441b-938f-d246765a4115",
          "question_id": "8d0624bd-531b-4988-bfa3-05d3cddf9445",
          "pollster": "University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov",
          "start_date": "8/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-14",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 650,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.0,
          "margin": 5.0,
          "url": "https://www.uml.edu/news/press-releases/2026/09242026-maine-poll.aspx",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 50,
          "raw_weight": 0.19982184666692357,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.19982184666692357,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0137706683651071,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.012797847159759053
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "169a8eb8-b9e5-4288-a307-319244670cc9",
          "question_id": "14ef4296-9791-4c45-a13f-4ddbc261654d",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "9/2/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-08",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1335,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": 4.0,
          "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_me_20260902.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 56,
          "raw_weight": 0.2349191130949799,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.11521623696456872,
          "normalized_weight": 0.007940095720160812,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.007379172075478614
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "be77c821-d548-48e3-94dc-b9a31cd171ef",
          "question_id": "e6b1a8a4-bfb6-4f6f-871a-cdca35beb2b4",
          "pollster": "CNN/SSRS",
          "start_date": "8/31/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-06",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 880,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 45.0,
          "margin": 3.0,
          "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/09/politics/cnn-polls-maine-senate-michigan-senate-abdul-el-sayed-susan-collins",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 58,
          "raw_weight": 0.17854575634194425,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.16910890408525356,
          "normalized_weight": 0.011654094257403377,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.010830797252339038
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "41f7d42d-ab2a-4fb0-abe5-2d64da737526",
          "question_id": "572a935b-975f-4fc3-83ff-8d7399d7c3ef",
          "pollster": "Abacus Data",
          "start_date": "8/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-28",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 327,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 42.0,
          "margin": 8.0,
          "url": "https://abacusdata.ca/the-trade-war-next-door-what-american-voters-think-about-tariffs-canada-and-the-battle-for-the-u-s-senate/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 67,
          "raw_weight": 0.08086660625190158,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.08086660625190158,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0055729002362931565,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.005179205799580681
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "poll_id": "5b686156-9822-45bb-a17c-ad5d38d09f37",
          "question_id": "a7679919-eab7-426b-b45a-67f3b750ba5a",
          "pollster": "Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research",
          "start_date": "8/6/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-10",
          "population": "rv",
          "sample_size": 1000,
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 46.0,
          "margin": 2.0,
          "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-new-matchup-same-result-maine-senate-race-stays-locked",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 85,
          "raw_weight": 0.07806738469061408,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.07236771145236683,
          "normalized_weight": 0.004987201206349704,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0046348831517542015
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.15026666666666666,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.6554333333333333,
            "R": 0.3066,
            "unresolved": 0.03796666666666667
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.5407333333333333,
            "R": 0.4103,
            "unresolved": 0.048966666666666665
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.6554333333333333,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.5407333333333333,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 23397,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.7491558746847886,
              "R": 0.21425823823567125,
              "unresolved": 0.036585887079540115
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 6603,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.2074814478267454,
              "R": 0.7484476752991065,
              "unresolved": 0.04407087687414812
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.7491558746847886,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.2074814478267454,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 23397,
          "republican": 6603
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "MA",
      "state_name": "Massachusetts",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Ed Markey",
      "republican_name": "John Deaton",
      "margin": 25.438278929574523,
      "sigma": 4.724174023135937,
      "win_probability": 0.9999999637180258,
      "simulation_win_probability": 1.0,
      "interval80": [
        19.384006314319528,
        31.492551544829517
      ],
      "interval95": [
        16.17906798752839,
        34.697489871620654
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 8,
        "unique_pollsters": 5,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-31",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-12",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 3,
        "partisan_poll_count": 0,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 4.4111464618427485,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-and-polls",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.920809468755591,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.079190531244409,
        "poll_average": 25.56820860461856,
        "poll_sigma": 4.923126543363969,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": 25.43827892957452,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 4.4111464618427485,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": null
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.920809468755591,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.079190531244409,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "MA",
          "poll_id": "7fca87a7-c9a7-443c-9b3a-f5826088f152",
          "question_id": "ea5c8770-c63e-4afa-a43d-a9b5b6bfa252",
          "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
          "start_date": "10/27/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-31",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 877,
          "opposition_name": "Ed Markey",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "7390ce3e-b2d1-4835-a24d-9b24786b0193",
          "republican_name": "John Deaton",
          "opposition_pct": 53.0,
          "republican_pct": 32.0,
          "margin": 21.0,
          "url": "https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1014/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 3,
          "raw_weight": 1.0950145411657772,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7573680014327137,
          "normalized_weight": 0.23951348395920136,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.22054628392427297
        },
        {
          "state": "MA",
          "poll_id": "d75f0973-c7ad-4835-9163-1eae53b68db0",
          "question_id": "e00e1be9-dd09-4642-a7fa-2dfebf8ea8c5",
          "pollster": "UMass Lowell",
          "start_date": "10/7/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-18",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 850,
          "opposition_name": "Ed Markey",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "7390ce3e-b2d1-4835-a24d-9b24786b0193",
          "republican_name": "John Deaton",
          "opposition_pct": 55.0,
          "republican_pct": 26.0,
          "margin": 29.0,
          "url": "https://www.uml.edu/news/press-releases/2026/102826-new-england-polls.aspx",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 16,
          "raw_weight": 0.7019038919132006,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7019038919132006,
          "normalized_weight": 0.22197326298263095,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.20439508236498152
        },
        {
          "state": "MA",
          "poll_id": "318ee917-8c6b-47f7-98c2-927bec92a5be",
          "question_id": "6dab8989-4378-4f62-a5ed-a360f0c70d84",
          "pollster": "Suffolk University",
          "start_date": "10/14/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-18",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 500,
          "opposition_name": "Ed Markey",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "7390ce3e-b2d1-4835-a24d-9b24786b0193",
          "republican_name": "John Deaton",
          "opposition_pct": 60.0,
          "republican_pct": 31.8,
          "margin": 28.2,
          "url": "https://www.suffolk.edu/academics/research-at-suffolk/political-research-center/polls/massachusetts#collapse-October-20-2026-Massachusetts-Governor-and-US-Senate-Statewide-and-Bellwether-with-The-Boston-Globe",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 16,
          "raw_weight": 0.5383357106331338,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5383357106331338,
          "normalized_weight": 0.17024572116788797,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.1567638720665154
        },
        {
          "state": "MA",
          "poll_id": "c5000c5b-f88e-460a-9b37-9c068f09cd9c",
          "question_id": "8d58fb28-ffbe-4d5b-8b7d-6edbd4535dce",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "10/5/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-12",
          "population": "rv",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "opposition_name": "Ed Markey",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "7390ce3e-b2d1-4835-a24d-9b24786b0193",
          "republican_name": "John Deaton",
          "opposition_pct": 56.0,
          "republican_pct": 29.0,
          "margin": 27.0,
          "url": "https://www.umass.edu/poll/about/reports/2026-10-massachusetts-public-opinion-poll#toc-methodology",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 22,
          "raw_weight": 0.5586047327802862,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5586047327802862,
          "normalized_weight": 0.17665568845159557,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.1626662306357669
        },
        {
          "state": "MA",
          "poll_id": "377b9e38-e1a9-484b-9bd4-ce02fcc2890b",
          "question_id": "b56c6da5-a75d-476b-8b27-bd2796ee4194",
          "pollster": "MassINC Polling Group",
          "start_date": "9/14/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-22",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "opposition_name": "Ed Markey",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "7390ce3e-b2d1-4835-a24d-9b24786b0193",
          "republican_name": "John Deaton",
          "opposition_pct": 54.0,
          "republican_pct": 28.0,
          "margin": 26.0,
          "url": "https://commonwealthbeacon.org/politics/poll-healey-cruising-in-reelection-bid-with-trump-high-on-voters-mind/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 42,
          "raw_weight": 0.28867513459481287,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.28867513459481287,
          "normalized_weight": 0.09129193085580564,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.08406247435300655
        },
        {
          "state": "MA",
          "poll_id": "ef224dbe-a915-4b35-be63-da218ace4540",
          "question_id": "34d85126-ded1-49a3-847c-5705abde0aef",
          "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
          "start_date": "9/17/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-21",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 556,
          "opposition_name": "Ed Markey",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "7390ce3e-b2d1-4835-a24d-9b24786b0193",
          "republican_name": "John Deaton",
          "opposition_pct": 53.0,
          "republican_pct": 30.0,
          "margin": 23.0,
          "url": "https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1008/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 43,
          "raw_weight": 0.23284505416786921,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.16104753561616225,
          "normalized_weight": 0.05093040142374897,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.04689719587851128
        },
        {
          "state": "MA",
          "poll_id": "c3730e7e-803e-4ba0-bc0f-f7ada8bd3fc2",
          "question_id": "4d38a24c-8f0c-4725-9e49-325ca5f32797",
          "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
          "start_date": "8/20/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-24",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 906,
          "opposition_name": "Ed Markey",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "7390ce3e-b2d1-4835-a24d-9b24786b0193",
          "republican_name": "John Deaton",
          "opposition_pct": 49.0,
          "republican_pct": 30.0,
          "margin": 19.0,
          "url": "https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/989/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 71,
          "raw_weight": 0.11795609676628037,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.08158446295112413,
          "normalized_weight": 0.025800639743690252,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.023757473375941807
        },
        {
          "state": "MA",
          "poll_id": "4b4746d6-4dad-447c-8659-d24dd5be4b13",
          "question_id": "b2a251e9-3c43-4821-a338-f6e9229aead3",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "8/5/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-12",
          "population": "rv",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "opposition_name": "Ed Markey",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "7390ce3e-b2d1-4835-a24d-9b24786b0193",
          "republican_name": "John Deaton",
          "opposition_pct": 51.0,
          "republican_pct": 30.0,
          "margin": 21.0,
          "url": "https://www.umass.edu/news/article/experience-trust-drive-bay-state-primary-voters-support-markey-over-moulton-new-umass",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 83,
          "raw_weight": 0.07459060803026753,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.07459060803026753,
          "normalized_weight": 0.023588871415439337,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.021720856156594644
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.14406666666666668,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.6299333333333333,
            "R": 0.3318333333333333,
            "unresolved": 0.038233333333333334
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.5215,
            "R": 0.4313666666666667,
            "unresolved": 0.04713333333333333
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.6299333333333333,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.5215,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 30000,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.6299333333333333,
              "R": 0.3318333333333333,
              "unresolved": 0.038233333333333334
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 0,
            "reliable_sample": false,
            "control": null
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.6299333333333333,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": null,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 30000,
          "republican": 0
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "state_name": "Michigan",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "margin": 4.161327420777531,
      "sigma": 4.426916615097732,
      "win_probability": 0.8263927145177261,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.8253,
      "interval80": [
        -1.5119944978363726,
        9.834649339391435
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -4.515269707375988,
        12.83792454893105
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 49,
        "unique_pollsters": 34,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-10",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 1,
        "partisan_poll_count": 13,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 23.113966605018458,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-and-polls",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.9304616846079211,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.06953831539207889,
        "poll_average": 4.437535930335565,
        "poll_sigma": 4.589359668274097,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": 4.161327420777532,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 23.113966605018458,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": null
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.9304616846079211,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.06953831539207889,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "9d59ada9-f021-49e8-b627-4c0308822798",
          "question_id": "d7bf11cc-9121-41e0-be8e-c962f1710452",
          "pollster": "John Zogby Strategies",
          "start_date": "10/31/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-02",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1001,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 51.0,
          "republican_pct": 49.0,
          "margin": 2.0,
          "url": "https://johnzogbystrategies.com/el-sayed-leads-rogers-51-49-new-john-zogby-strategies-eve-of-election-day-poll/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 1,
          "raw_weight": 1.2497025380705993,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
          "normalized_weight": 0.054109955439348996,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05034724029215621
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "29c14fdc-68af-4eb3-95ca-942bf46ca65b",
          "question_id": "805882b8-cd41-45d8-90a5-629bb8704316",
          "pollster": "Emerson College",
          "start_date": "11/1/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 500,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 51.2,
          "republican_pct": 45.2,
          "margin": 6.0,
          "url": "https://pollvault.substack.com/p/new-poll-vault-emerson-senate-and",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 0.8545546733710848,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7751743610786751,
          "normalized_weight": 0.041944650135692936,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03902788982554671
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "7386956a-1647-4ea3-a671-60ad31bb308f",
          "question_id": "7a616448-7e81-47e4-8e21-8f3ac4046147",
          "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners",
          "start_date": "10/30/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 510,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 51.0,
          "republican_pct": 41.0,
          "margin": 10.0,
          "url": "https://concordpublicopinionpartners.org/blog/michigan-ge-2026",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 0.4315289571905832,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4315289571905832,
          "normalized_weight": 0.023350012644371195,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.021726292100697882
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "471675d9-7773-409a-b6b8-2ab979f62d01",
          "question_id": "e014e631-c06c-403e-892f-8f8c7eacf061",
          "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
          "start_date": "10/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1316,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 53.5,
          "republican_pct": 46.4,
          "margin": 7.100000000000001,
          "url": "https://pollstergraph.com/poll/exclusive-atlas-us-mi-20261101-senate",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 1.3863816327050469,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
          "normalized_weight": 0.054109955439348996,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05034724029215621
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "8de7ab3e-bd02-4cec-be08-c93b64288f26",
          "question_id": "7ea2a1ee-59ba-405e-8a2b-c19b5c22f692",
          "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
          "start_date": "10/31/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1087,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 47.1,
          "republican_pct": 45.9,
          "margin": 1.2000000000000028,
          "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-senate-gen-1101/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 0.6299986630109833,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6299986630109833,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03408919958237375,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03171869407035112
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "79c1089e-6893-4079-913e-e6f151d017c2",
          "question_id": "fe0ea3f7-6dd3-4e33-890f-b055088243e8",
          "pollster": "Research Co.",
          "start_date": "10/30/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 450,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 46.0,
          "margin": 2.0,
          "url": "https://researchco.ca/2026/11/01/midterms-2026-one/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 0.8107017458981602,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8107017458981602,
          "normalized_weight": 0.04386703534515188,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.040816595606005236
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "c1d14361-f029-4b1d-ba0f-d4fa10222df0",
          "question_id": "0975d1d6-6388-4f25-9a26-951c05500f2f",
          "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
          "start_date": "10/23/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1011,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 52.6,
          "republican_pct": 41.6,
          "margin": 11.0,
          "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/11/01/polls/times-siena-poll-crosstabs.html",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 1.2151515052601016,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8287811726597035,
          "normalized_weight": 0.04484531232158796,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0417268448495131
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "69fc5034-470a-42cb-b49a-0c989fcc6047",
          "question_id": "32851709-f695-4361-8da9-28d957d8f071",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "10/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-29",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 2088,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 51.0,
          "republican_pct": 47.0,
          "margin": 4.0,
          "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_mi_20261026_lv.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 5,
          "raw_weight": 1.5479807801590098,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6953337889788204,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03762448033711767,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.035008137356972106
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "e05bf93a-250d-4ff3-bc42-01804850b159",
          "question_id": "cd1a4a72-defd-4ff5-b319-5ff4c976c071",
          "pollster": "CNN/SSRS",
          "start_date": "10/20/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-27",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 768,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 49.0,
          "republican_pct": 42.0,
          "margin": 7.0,
          "url": "https://edition.cnn.com/2026/10/29/politics/cnn-polls-michigan-maine-texas-kansas-senate-races-midterms-vis",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 7,
          "raw_weight": 0.8979696386474985,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8370947913916545,
          "normalized_weight": 0.04529516186071357,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.04214541260950801
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "b8ae6e54-601a-409d-aa76-8fcaf9a3636c",
          "question_id": "f7998992-e6f5-4932-acbb-a358221f4f9b",
          "pollster": "Mitchell Research & Communications",
          "start_date": "10/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-27",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 636,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 51.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": 7.0,
          "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/detroit/news/el-sayed-widens-lead-rogers-michigan-senate-poll/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 7,
          "raw_weight": 0.8171647058239133,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6949293244971136,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03760259478203572,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03498777368652198
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "6aa99f8a-1d58-4606-9f29-bd132b6f9dc1",
          "question_id": "7559da64-b0ca-4af7-8640-776fec81242b",
          "pollster": "Data for Progress",
          "start_date": "10/23/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-25",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 622,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 46.0,
          "margin": 4.0,
          "url": "https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/30/democratic-senate-candidates-lead-in-maine-michigan-and-texas",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 9,
          "raw_weight": 0.7564961321255557,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7564961321255557,
          "normalized_weight": 0.04093397199935368,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.038087492544212107
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "4567e642-9d14-4530-9c86-e17199675130",
          "question_id": "4353b805-3580-492a-8724-00b582c6c6d9",
          "pollster": "Upswing Research",
          "start_date": "10/24/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-25",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 505,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 45.0,
          "margin": 5.0,
          "url": "https://x.com/joshorton/status/2115883461076545615",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 9,
          "raw_weight": 0.3408216800387445,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3408216800387445,
          "normalized_weight": 0.018441845919660527,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01715943102168705
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "c506a63c-4d38-4a19-9173-98e168424ae5",
          "question_id": "db7880a2-fbb9-42db-be1c-cc6046217752",
          "pollster": "Michigan State University Office for Survey Research/Verasight",
          "start_date": "10/8/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-23",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1383,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 51.4,
          "republican_pct": 42.2,
          "margin": 9.199999999999996,
          "url": "https://polisci.msu.edu/news-events/news/smidt-poll102926.html",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 11,
          "raw_weight": 1.0559736619579039,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
          "normalized_weight": 0.054109955439348996,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05034724029215621
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "ee2e05a0-c2e8-441b-b729-80775d5ee24c",
          "question_id": "d2b0bafb-6798-46c7-915d-8d3f1458633e",
          "pollster": "Glengariff Group, Inc.",
          "start_date": "10/19/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-22",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 600,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 51.4,
          "republican_pct": 45.1,
          "margin": 6.299999999999997,
          "url": "https://detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2026/10/27/jocelyn-bensons-lead-over-john-james-grows-in-michigan-governor-race/92441176007/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 12,
          "raw_weight": 0.6729500963161781,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6729500963161781,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03641329972457401,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03388118020386029
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "29fef2f9-7f7c-4255-b536-9814ad9c5ba6",
          "question_id": "1313d61f-e3a8-48ca-963f-8547be24f9ba",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "start_date": "10/21/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-22",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1200,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 47.2,
          "republican_pct": 46.0,
          "margin": 1.2000000000000028,
          "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-senate-surveys-mi-el-sayed-47-rogers-46-ia-hinson-47-turek-45-oh-brown-47-husted-44/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 12,
          "raw_weight": 0.9516951530106197,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5030357303908399,
          "normalized_weight": 0.027219240955848722,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.025326460793527922
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "d2be96f5-7278-4294-92a5-7e0e4fa03dd4",
          "question_id": "2b93d302-b2ae-40dc-a6b4-fbc9102a2477",
          "pollster": "Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov",
          "start_date": "10/2/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-19",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 836,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 45.5,
          "margin": 2.5,
          "url": "https://ippsr.msu.edu/news/msu-poll-shows-benson-large-lead-while-el-sayed-roger-race-tight",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 15,
          "raw_weight": 0.7194590634979661,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7194590634979661,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0389298978663107,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03622277835030177
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "fcc4e329-5654-4b25-9327-d06c9677abdc",
          "question_id": "78a2f4d9-d9f7-4dbb-8b02-2aacaeb5f69d",
          "pollster": "Marist University",
          "start_date": "10/15/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-18",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1185,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 48.0,
          "margin": 2.0,
          "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-michigan-october-2026/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 16,
          "raw_weight": 0.8287572922771952,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6620589398179161,
          "normalized_weight": 0.035823979731770074,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0333328405305828
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "e4682f6c-ef99-473c-a540-54dbcf9d775f",
          "question_id": "a429eff9-57bf-4f48-a664-623ff857d22f",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "start_date": "10/9/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-10",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1200,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 47.8,
          "republican_pct": 45.5,
          "margin": 2.299999999999997,
          "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-u-s-senate-surveys-alaska-ranks-choice-peltola-50-sullivan-48-kansas-hamilton-48-marshall-47-michigan-el-sayed-48-rogers-46/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 24,
          "raw_weight": 0.6404433448821364,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.33851794321699474,
          "normalized_weight": 0.018317190822891658,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.017043444230352527
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "6791fae3-af46-4a7f-aef8-12f4e9e732c7",
          "question_id": "489d0c79-0c73-4962-86fa-50d1ca61df81",
          "pollster": "The Tyson Group",
          "start_date": "10/6/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-08",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 600,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 44.0,
          "republican_pct": 46.0,
          "margin": -2.0,
          "url": "https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/10/15/exclusive-poll-shows-mike-rogers-edging-out-abdul-el-sayed-in-michigan-senate-race/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 26,
          "raw_weight": 0.21196599796938378,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.21196599796938378,
          "normalized_weight": 0.011469470704780495,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.010671903033531261
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "ee904e5a-0b44-496a-85ab-d8c215a658d6",
          "question_id": "d76ac73d-e36c-41df-8520-ad75f223058e",
          "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
          "start_date": "10/5/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-06",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 744,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 48.4,
          "republican_pct": 47.2,
          "margin": 1.1999999999999957,
          "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/f/michigan-senate-el-sayed-48-rogers-47-at-four-weeks-out",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 28,
          "raw_weight": 0.4419137503333715,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4419137503333715,
          "normalized_weight": 0.023911933338574328,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02224913777644218
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "56a26c06-7fb0-4b33-90dc-7f8ea906e654",
          "question_id": "6ef7b8c6-41c1-457b-89a2-fe1ed343f795",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "9/22/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-04",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 3947,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 49.0,
          "republican_pct": 48.0,
          "margin": 1.0,
          "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_mi_20260921_lv.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 30,
          "raw_weight": 0.6782604937368006,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3046662110211796,
          "normalized_weight": 0.016485475102231324,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.015339102935184099
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "ab83cf47-b0a2-422e-a221-5c9e87c8ef63",
          "question_id": "945eeac0-0a07-4e9a-a371-5615b6530aba",
          "pollster": "Z to A Research",
          "start_date": "9/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 483,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 49.0,
          "republican_pct": 42.0,
          "margin": 7.0,
          "url": "https://x.com/rbrtraining/status/2108302504446337272",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 33,
          "raw_weight": 0.15094572179806526,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.15094572179806526,
          "normalized_weight": 0.008167666280253682,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.007599700526440153
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "2dc1e826-8970-4611-8cfa-14268c7d1bd4",
          "question_id": "310f79f6-63ec-4002-9cd7-c425108f7b51",
          "pollster": "Mitchell Research & Communications",
          "start_date": "10/1/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 682,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 45.6,
          "republican_pct": 41.4,
          "margin": 4.200000000000003,
          "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/detroit/news/michigan-voter-poll-abdul-el-sayed-mike-rogers/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 33,
          "raw_weight": 0.3587314278084606,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.30507067550288636,
          "normalized_weight": 0.01650736065731328,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.015359466605634232
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "3d9810d5-e530-4e7e-97e8-ea312f2727db",
          "question_id": "e8a6ffa8-d33a-4ec3-8546-40cdc820954c",
          "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
          "start_date": "9/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-30",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1085,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 46.9,
          "republican_pct": 45.1,
          "margin": 1.7999999999999972,
          "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-senate-general-1001/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 34,
          "raw_weight": 0.2188907203553015,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2188907203553015,
          "normalized_weight": 0.011844167124512365,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.011020543695451532
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "7f60d59d-6820-4372-bd51-1e43f71d8674",
          "question_id": "3c5a8820-c0cf-4016-bfbd-640ff7085496",
          "pollster": "Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research",
          "start_date": "9/24/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-28",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1028,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 49.0,
          "margin": 1.0,
          "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-michigan-voters-split-between-el-sayed-rogers",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 36,
          "raw_weight": 0.3989050285407311,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3989050285407311,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0215847333188712,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02008376732568962
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "32ba7df0-57e8-439c-94d9-ce6b91b53a57",
          "question_id": "696649ff-e2a3-4131-b98f-9be32707299d",
          "pollster": "The Tyson Group",
          "start_date": "9/24/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-27",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 600,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 44.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.0,
          "margin": 1.0,
          "url": "https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/10/15/exclusive-poll-shows-mike-rogers-edging-out-abdul-el-sayed-in-michigan-senate-race/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 37,
          "raw_weight": 0.14742930611217056,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.14742930611217056,
          "normalized_weight": 0.007977393184183692,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.007422658700935306
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "6baacd72-4dcd-4aae-9584-f31921e4b22f",
          "question_id": "e3413b1f-71ce-4d93-a0f3-62222ee9b525",
          "pollster": "Guidant Polling and Strategy",
          "start_date": "9/20/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-27",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.0,
          "margin": 5.0,
          "url": "https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/documenttools/517739e11050c66b/43ffa3c2-full.pdf",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 37,
          "raw_weight": 0.17023669914060283,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.17023669914060283,
          "normalized_weight": 0.00921150020463988,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.008570947998175432
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "25345253-7ec6-454f-a2e7-d87a38e5680e",
          "question_id": "4bf97b43-ec01-48eb-bb2a-1930f6405eff",
          "pollster": "Marist University",
          "start_date": "9/24/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-27",
          "population": "rv",
          "sample_size": 1235,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 51.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": 7.0,
          "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-michigan-september-2026/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 37,
          "raw_weight": 0.4230304904013765,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.33794106018208386,
          "normalized_weight": 0.018285975707578915,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.017014399761573398
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "e05c43ca-5439-4bac-8148-b5a35785ebbd",
          "question_id": "bd20db7f-0151-4594-9a57-66c6f717e312",
          "pollster": "Big Data Poll",
          "start_date": "9/22/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-24",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 678,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 46.7,
          "republican_pct": 42.1,
          "margin": 4.600000000000001,
          "url": "https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/wolverine-state-poll-el-sayed-leads-rogers-for-us-senate-in-michigan/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 40,
          "raw_weight": 0.28388912341498246,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.28388912341498246,
          "normalized_weight": 0.015361227817700548,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.014293033912903711
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "fdd3fa5f-0d00-4570-8595-206a2c44b1c5",
          "question_id": "b088df77-1d6e-4265-a23f-cea70396759c",
          "pollster": "co/efficient",
          "start_date": "9/21/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-23",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 843,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 50.0,
          "margin": 0.0,
          "url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/mi/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 41,
          "raw_weight": 0.30627597599981576,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.30627597599981576,
          "normalized_weight": 0.016572579413493153,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01542015015937739
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "a73499f4-78b4-49de-b9c1-b6b6c4d9ab35",
          "question_id": "86437ffc-38eb-4d21-9233-207daf93047f",
          "pollster": "GBAO",
          "start_date": "9/19/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-22",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": 4.0,
          "url": "https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2026/09/28/trumps-joes-exit-the-front-row-01094720",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 42,
          "raw_weight": 0.14433756729740643,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.14433756729740643,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0078100993346866985,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.00726699818390779
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "4d0532bf-99b1-4496-b653-1afe23ce13f2",
          "question_id": "62d47ffb-f925-48e8-af3d-72d990f1c67d",
          "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
          "start_date": "9/15/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-22",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 605,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 49.45,
          "republican_pct": 44.5,
          "margin": 4.950000000000003,
          "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/09/24/polls/times-siena-poll-mi-toplines.html",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 42,
          "raw_weight": 0.25103950552320115,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.17121882734029653,
          "normalized_weight": 0.009264643117761035,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.008620395442643114
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "eb8dcba9-321d-4335-b659-9e9a33a55f92",
          "question_id": "3cbd3574-e2bd-4aa0-965d-31188500b8d9",
          "pollster": "Cygnal/Beacon Research",
          "start_date": "9/18/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-21",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 600,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 45.0,
          "republican_pct": 40.0,
          "margin": 5.0,
          "url": "https://enjoyer.com/michigan-poll-fall-2026/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 43,
          "raw_weight": 0.2418829446309729,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2418829446309729,
          "normalized_weight": 0.013088275355520464,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.012178138735909907
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "d122b726-eb15-4792-bea0-ee63d8ec1529",
          "question_id": "963f3c18-13d6-410b-969e-ffc926b66d6d",
          "pollster": "Suffolk University",
          "start_date": "9/16/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-20",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 500,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 46.8,
          "republican_pct": 39.6,
          "margin": 7.199999999999996,
          "url": "https://www.suffolk.edu/academics/research-at-suffolk/political-research-center/polls",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 44,
          "raw_weight": 0.2136386683427712,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2136386683427712,
          "normalized_weight": 0.011559978824149207,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.010756117370749767
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "7145345e-115a-4e15-b102-5006131f5230",
          "question_id": "878d8ab9-5a80-49ad-9e0c-f18738247d02",
          "pollster": "Torchlight Strategies",
          "start_date": "9/15/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-19",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 643,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 43.1,
          "republican_pct": 44.4,
          "margin": -1.2999999999999972,
          "url": "https://washingtonreporter.news/exclusive-mike-rogers-leads-in-michigan-john-james-nearly-tied-poll-shows/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 45,
          "raw_weight": 0.11720215285202203,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.11720215285202203,
          "normalized_weight": 0.006341803268218682,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.005900804952398774
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "bb987f0d-aae5-46bd-9cd9-a37dc9ed0e83",
          "question_id": "96335354-f900-4424-a33d-0b597848b6b0",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "start_date": "9/16/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-17",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1200,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 46.6,
          "republican_pct": 44.7,
          "margin": 1.8999999999999986,
          "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/mi-top-line-tabs/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 47,
          "raw_weight": 0.29976518909025046,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.15844632639216533,
          "normalized_weight": 0.008573523660608613,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.00797733526827576
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "f02c3dba-1905-4371-a2db-f33b476c5179",
          "question_id": "a8d8c4a0-39eb-4a5a-bded-a1cafded86db",
          "pollster": "The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government",
          "start_date": "9/10/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-14",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 803,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 45.0,
          "margin": 3.0,
          "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/documents/08fa9b5e-43ac-456c-a706-4c33ec6506dc.pdf?itid=lk_inline_manual_2",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 50,
          "raw_weight": 0.22209770073107554,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.22209770073107554,
          "normalized_weight": 0.012017696689740365,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01118200630704286
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "39a97beb-dff8-42e4-ba27-456ffbd2ac88",
          "question_id": "8e44bf3b-8d26-4680-824a-1eed6973b30a",
          "pollster": "Emerson College",
          "start_date": "9/12/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-14",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1000,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 48.19,
          "republican_pct": 45.72,
          "margin": 2.469999999999999,
          "url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2026-poll-el-sayed-and-rogers-locked-in-close-election/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 50,
          "raw_weight": 0.24784849716457374,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.22482563892132493,
          "normalized_weight": 0.012165305303656058,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.011319350466609493
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "9da96e59-1c19-436a-9355-2e4c6ff8b5f7",
          "question_id": "f11a343c-9178-4bc1-b7a5-4229b4bb11d6",
          "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
          "start_date": "9/7/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-09",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1079,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 46.3,
          "republican_pct": 44.8,
          "margin": 1.5,
          "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-sen-general-0910/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 55,
          "raw_weight": 0.10914232675754292,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.10914232675754292,
          "normalized_weight": 0.005905686437397514,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.005495014951307043
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "eac7129e-98df-459f-99ca-9c818ecd162a",
          "question_id": "c21ee2b3-26fc-40ef-b501-7438b67e1ed7",
          "pollster": "CNN/SSRS",
          "start_date": "8/31/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-06",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 843,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 47.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": 3.0,
          "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/09/politics/cnn-polls-maine-senate-michigan-senate-abdul-el-sayed-susan-collins",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 58,
          "raw_weight": 0.1747519310980743,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.16290520860834543,
          "normalized_weight": 0.008814793578635422,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0082018276826482
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "c8ab1cb2-330b-45e6-9cab-19dd200ac99a",
          "question_id": "54a4f963-5071-4949-b00c-e9d040a4fdfb",
          "pollster": "Glengariff Group, Inc.",
          "start_date": "8/31/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-03",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 600,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 44.4,
          "republican_pct": 45.8,
          "margin": -1.3999999999999986,
          "url": "https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2026/09/08/michigan-senate-poll-mike-rogers-abdul-el-sayed/91653231007/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 61,
          "raw_weight": 0.13353021135180027,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.13353021135180027,
          "normalized_weight": 0.007225313786052765,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.006722877637191493
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "96710969-8ac8-4a68-bf76-d1e3bd0f8e0e",
          "question_id": "f6ddcdac-2d1e-481f-90c9-8a02e3fa5de3",
          "pollster": "Abacus Data",
          "start_date": "8/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-28",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 332,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 47.0,
          "republican_pct": 42.0,
          "margin": 5.0,
          "url": "https://abacusdata.ca/the-trade-war-next-door-what-american-voters-think-about-tariffs-canada-and-the-battle-for-the-u-s-senate/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 67,
          "raw_weight": 0.08148250704792268,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.08148250704792268,
          "normalized_weight": 0.004409014825449536,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.004102419361949074
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "ea8378f5-9ac1-4205-b36e-314fbba935b7",
          "question_id": "0f028862-9bab-4b3f-bbbc-558fac09fbee",
          "pollster": "EPIC-MRA",
          "start_date": "8/22/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-28",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 600,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 47.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.0,
          "margin": 4.0,
          "url": "https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/time-to-relax-about-whether-abdul-el-sayed-can-win-michigan",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 67,
          "raw_weight": 0.10953955346705421,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.10953955346705421,
          "normalized_weight": 0.00592718035694849,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.005515014219901271
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "a4d89b12-868f-490b-9fd9-d4f2ec4ab6e4",
          "question_id": "36bdec9f-45aa-47ca-877b-8a87f260f619",
          "pollster": "Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov",
          "start_date": "8/10/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-20",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 779,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 45.0,
          "margin": 5.0,
          "url": "https://ippsr.msu.edu/news/msu-poll-shows-democrats-lead-republicans-coalesce-behind-rogers",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 75,
          "raw_weight": 0.09584864468682831,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.09584864468682831,
          "normalized_weight": 0.005186365892926275,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.004825714745725246
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "996caa91-bee6-4be5-b8ef-71eb7a1186a7",
          "question_id": "05461b36-d6da-401e-8412-ebef9609aa5d",
          "pollster": "Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc.",
          "start_date": "8/11/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-17",
          "population": "rv",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 46.0,
          "republican_pct": 39.0,
          "margin": 7.0,
          "url": "https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/documenttools/43c767b477fe30ae/4748b92f-full.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 78,
          "raw_weight": 0.0879747326750979,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.0879747326750979,
          "normalized_weight": 0.004760308864838187,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.00442928500563136
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "1f396a28-8df3-4095-b0a7-9525b1598b40",
          "question_id": "412a3974-2ec3-48b0-a5b8-4e48aca0e73d",
          "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research",
          "start_date": "8/9/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-11",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 877,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 47.0,
          "margin": 1.0,
          "url": "https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/voter-research/politics/2026-midterm-election-poll-michigan/?CMP=RDRCT-PRI-POLT",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 84,
          "raw_weight": 0.07556212951384222,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.07556212951384222,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0040886634608963204,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.003804344691620443
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "14255922-dac9-4587-b040-83dc51519dbb",
          "question_id": "4289b1bf-6375-4222-89f7-200e3210facd",
          "pollster": "TIPP Insights",
          "start_date": "8/6/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-10",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1215,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 45.44,
          "republican_pct": 42.27,
          "margin": 3.1699999999999946,
          "url": "https://tippinsights.com/league-of-american-workers-survey-michigan-2/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 85,
          "raw_weight": 0.043025683060252735,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.043025683060252735,
          "normalized_weight": 0.002328117793137828,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0021662244037686995
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "e517b345-e0c8-4715-b717-8e68b58495f6",
          "question_id": "5ae72580-b6be-4edb-8937-4fbe603ae73e",
          "pollster": "GBAO",
          "start_date": "8/6/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-10",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": 6.0,
          "url": "https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2026/08/15/what-burritos-tell-us-about-capitalism-01038859",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 85,
          "raw_weight": 0.034912795798767896,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.034912795798767896,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0018891298249344216,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.001757762919351549
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "poll_id": "0c516519-3aea-459d-9426-a392a78944fe",
          "question_id": "d88de28d-b814-46bc-ad3c-49f4ef549eaf",
          "pollster": "Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research",
          "start_date": "8/6/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-10",
          "population": "rv",
          "sample_size": 1006,
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "opposition_pct": 47.0,
          "republican_pct": 51.0,
          "margin": -4.0,
          "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-senate-battle-looms-michigan",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 85,
          "raw_weight": 0.07830123659142887,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.07830123659142887,
          "normalized_weight": 0.004236876422808139,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.003942251173841644
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.15146666666666667,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.6486,
            "R": 0.3123,
            "unresolved": 0.0391
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.5335666666666666,
            "R": 0.41736666666666666,
            "unresolved": 0.04906666666666667
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.6486,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.5335666666666666,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 24759,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.7292297750313017,
              "R": 0.2320368350902702,
              "unresolved": 0.038733389878428046
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 5241,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.16084716657126502,
              "R": 0.803281816447243,
              "unresolved": 0.03587101698149208
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.7292297750313017,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.16084716657126502,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 24759,
          "republican": 5241
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "MN",
      "state_name": "Minnesota",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
      "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
      "margin": 5.477613619971191,
      "sigma": 4.508871585203114,
      "win_probability": 0.887788810877139,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.8912666666666667,
      "interval80": [
        -0.30073781888542594,
        11.255965058827808
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -3.359612297942933,
        14.314839537885314
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 19,
        "unique_pollsters": 15,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-17",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 2,
        "partisan_poll_count": 4,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 11.26383122261768,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-and-polls",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.9278631431829554,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.07213685681704463,
        "poll_average": 5.2855339049001655,
        "poll_sigma": 4.68086272278546,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": 5.477613619971192,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 11.26383122261768,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": null
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.9278631431829554,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.07213685681704463,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "MN",
          "poll_id": "a1e3f1ce-417d-4436-b948-485544ecdf39",
          "question_id": "6c66d3fb-effc-4c85-9618-f924ef2ba510",
          "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
          "start_date": "10/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 2133,
          "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
          "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
          "opposition_pct": 48.1,
          "republican_pct": 45.7,
          "margin": 2.3999999999999986,
          "url": "https://pollstergraph.com/poll/exclusive-atlas-us-mn-20261101-senate",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 1.7091093467421696,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
          "normalized_weight": 0.11680269133951914,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.10837691231851478
        },
        {
          "state": "MN",
          "poll_id": "24da89e7-102c-4aa4-89a1-451e5301fd0d",
          "question_id": "36f299e4-042c-47f7-abbb-6d8fec55cc7a",
          "pollster": "Survey 160",
          "start_date": "10/27/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1365,
          "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
          "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
          "opposition_pct": 52.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.0,
          "margin": 9.0,
          "url": "https://www.survey160.com/methodological-research-blog/survey-160-pre-election-surveys-in-four-states",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 1.4119560450312845,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
          "normalized_weight": 0.11680269133951914,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.10837691231851478
        },
        {
          "state": "MN",
          "poll_id": "f96cc69b-cd5a-4526-930b-9707abdb8e97",
          "question_id": "2dbe44bb-c593-424c-9b7c-085d437e295b",
          "pollster": "Research Co.",
          "start_date": "10/30/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 450,
          "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
          "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.0,
          "margin": 5.0,
          "url": "https://researchco.ca/2026/11/01/midterms-2026-one/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 0.8107017458981602,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8107017458981602,
          "normalized_weight": 0.09469214579455208,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.08786135203167175
        },
        {
          "state": "MN",
          "poll_id": "d4400760-72bc-49ff-9842-f8cb3e3e38bf",
          "question_id": "5fc38d2e-96c1-4f04-a6b7-30c73006a774",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "start_date": "10/29/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-30",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1200,
          "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
          "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
          "opposition_pct": 49.3,
          "republican_pct": 46.4,
          "margin": 2.8999999999999986,
          "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-final-minnesota-senate-survey-flanagan-49-tafoya-46/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 4,
          "raw_weight": 1.239298577035207,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7355988100511269,
          "normalized_weight": 0.08591992076011934,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.07972192773851479
        },
        {
          "state": "MN",
          "poll_id": "913c201c-a821-4a56-b3c5-91e86b15af5f",
          "question_id": "aa37ab5c-d31a-41eb-90b8-2e41ba56b477",
          "pollster": "SurveyUSA",
          "start_date": "10/24/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-28",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 714,
          "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
          "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 41.0,
          "margin": 7.0,
          "url": "https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/kstp-surveyusa-minnesota-statewide-races-inch-left-in-final-poll-before-election-day/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 6,
          "raw_weight": 0.8948802236144522,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5250147295882983,
          "normalized_weight": 0.06132313340880311,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05689947531451975
        },
        {
          "state": "MN",
          "poll_id": "c2682803-f4b1-44e9-be94-40f7ceb34de3",
          "question_id": "67551c6a-989f-4564-a596-26cafac5d751",
          "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
          "start_date": "10/19/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-26",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 752,
          "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
          "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
          "opposition_pct": 54.21,
          "republican_pct": 40.31,
          "margin": 13.899999999999999,
          "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/28/polls/times-siena-mn-poll-toplines.html",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 8,
          "raw_weight": 0.8597163803501411,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8597163803501411,
          "normalized_weight": 0.10041718701356615,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.09317340677199815
        },
        {
          "state": "MN",
          "poll_id": "d547a305-d76b-4006-9d51-c268fb8ecf02",
          "question_id": "e580a5af-7e4c-4a0b-afba-6eab5bae2267",
          "pollster": "Victory Insights",
          "start_date": "10/21/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-22",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1194,
          "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
          "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
          "opposition_pct": 47.8,
          "republican_pct": 44.4,
          "margin": 3.3999999999999986,
          "url": "https://irp.cdn-website.com/07e08705/files/uploaded/PollReport_MN-GE-26_10-28-26.pdf",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 12,
          "raw_weight": 0.4746564668111526,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4746564668111526,
          "normalized_weight": 0.05544115278524976,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0514418022850083
        },
        {
          "state": "MN",
          "poll_id": "d5f8e9c0-d6c5-42f6-9c7b-66f77ea5e40c",
          "question_id": "cb893ddc-9dcf-490b-b05d-62a8a531584f",
          "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
          "start_date": "10/13/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-15",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1079,
          "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
          "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
          "opposition_pct": 48.1,
          "republican_pct": 44.6,
          "margin": 3.5,
          "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mn-senate-gen-1017/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 19,
          "raw_weight": 0.35813323790460366,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.35813323790460366,
          "normalized_weight": 0.04183092604539399,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03881337452273303
        },
        {
          "state": "MN",
          "poll_id": "9849d173-7f1b-41ff-9ed9-b3e55032e195",
          "question_id": "8f51be0a-d98d-4708-8d1d-3bb1d38ec7ef",
          "pollster": "SurveyUSA",
          "start_date": "10/9/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-12",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 718,
          "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
          "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
          "opposition_pct": 45.0,
          "republican_pct": 42.0,
          "margin": 3.0,
          "url": "https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/kstp-surveyusa-poll-swing-in-senate-and-ag-races-klobuchar-up-slightly-on-demuth/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 22,
          "raw_weight": 0.5292024419986836,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.31047627341813894,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03626446433230303,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03364845986121686
        },
        {
          "state": "MN",
          "poll_id": "7f43f466-6f44-43e0-bae3-4037b13ae3e7",
          "question_id": "d8734a5d-f370-40bd-988b-b8daf3b2f5a9",
          "pollster": "Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.",
          "start_date": "10/5/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-07",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
          "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
          "opposition_pct": 47.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.0,
          "margin": 4.0,
          "url": "https://www.startribune.com/minnesota-poll-flanagan-tafoya-senate/601887443",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 27,
          "raw_weight": 0.47362083861677723,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.47362083861677723,
          "normalized_weight": 0.05532018862491963,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0513295640989919
        },
        {
          "state": "MN",
          "poll_id": "445eb10b-f60a-4983-a7ee-dd66f8614964",
          "question_id": "dd86ac0c-c537-4fb5-b001-3f7c5b2aecbe",
          "pollster": "Morning Consult",
          "start_date": "10/2/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-07",
          "population": "rv",
          "sample_size": 1000,
          "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
          "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
          "opposition_pct": 45.0,
          "republican_pct": 41.0,
          "margin": 4.0,
          "url": "https://www.thedailyagenda.com/p/morning-take-the-daily-agenda-poll",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 27,
          "raw_weight": 0.5295241953537857,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5295241953537857,
          "normalized_weight": 0.061849851146715464,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.057388197290389326
        },
        {
          "state": "MN",
          "poll_id": "9d918f3b-4659-4879-b001-4d30b9d71d0b",
          "question_id": "cec29ac4-e650-4c4b-b30f-c7d0b6a216e6",
          "pollster": "GQR",
          "start_date": "10/1/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-04",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
          "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
          "opposition_pct": 53.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": 9.0,
          "url": "https://x.com/DrewSav/status/2108502733045334207",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 30,
          "raw_weight": 0.21448480071186593,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.21448480071186593,
          "normalized_weight": 0.02505240197456635,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02324520044040401
        },
        {
          "state": "MN",
          "poll_id": "52eaab2c-6b66-41b8-baca-8041921f9c98",
          "question_id": "e3233dab-765e-43ab-95be-d8df31f773df",
          "pollster": "Big Data Poll",
          "start_date": "9/29/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-30",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 622,
          "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
          "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
          "opposition_pct": 45.8,
          "republican_pct": 43.6,
          "margin": 2.1999999999999957,
          "url": "https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/north-star-state-poll-peggy-flanagan-holds-slight-lead-over-michele-tafoya-for-us-senate-in-minnesota/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 34,
          "raw_weight": 0.3314649940503481,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3314649940503481,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03871600338991835,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0359231525968516
        },
        {
          "state": "MN",
          "poll_id": "4610aeff-8c61-4b2c-9672-45f7818681d2",
          "question_id": "a5287e7d-6ec6-4611-8496-809b7241c352",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "start_date": "9/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-29",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1200,
          "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
          "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
          "opposition_pct": 46.0,
          "republican_pct": 45.0,
          "margin": 1.0,
          "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-survey-u-s-senate-minnesota-contest-a-one-point-race-flanagan-46-tafoya-45/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 35,
          "raw_weight": 0.4454493590701697,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2644011899488732,
          "normalized_weight": 0.030882770579399803,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02865498458
        },
        {
          "state": "MN",
          "poll_id": "6dc1e5c8-81c7-4fdc-aaee-f5d0ba3bd532",
          "question_id": "7cb10566-fc15-4ee1-b91a-a9165f03b272",
          "pollster": "co/efficient",
          "start_date": "9/14/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-15",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 833,
          "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
          "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
          "opposition_pct": 43.0,
          "republican_pct": 42.0,
          "margin": 1.0,
          "url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/mn/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 49,
          "raw_weight": 0.23379948613457904,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.23379948613457904,
          "normalized_weight": 0.02730840921431542,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.025338466408921085
        },
        {
          "state": "MN",
          "poll_id": "2618d7e3-4071-4897-85b9-d877fdfbc2c7",
          "question_id": "96118869-e711-4f82-ba55-b204080d3b1b",
          "pollster": "SurveyUSA",
          "start_date": "9/9/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-14",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 654,
          "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
          "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
          "opposition_pct": 42.0,
          "republican_pct": 42.0,
          "margin": 0.0,
          "url": "https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/kstp-surveyusa-poll-governor-senate-races-tightening-days-before-early-voting-starts-in-minnesota/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 50,
          "raw_weight": 0.200435740115296,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.11759307348577669,
          "normalized_weight": 0.013735187466024566,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.012744374214432686
        },
        {
          "state": "MN",
          "poll_id": "cbda5f15-c2a1-4102-8b12-76064418a417",
          "question_id": "039378a4-d82a-4e95-9b6e-8db15ad77efb",
          "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
          "start_date": "9/8/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-10",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 720,
          "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
          "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
          "opposition_pct": 48.9,
          "republican_pct": 45.4,
          "margin": 3.5,
          "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/polling/f/new-quantus-polls-moody-leads-in-florida-flanagan-in-minnesota",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 54,
          "raw_weight": 0.18429497391382244,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.18429497391382244,
          "normalized_weight": 0.02152614895348093,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.019973320228601304
        },
        {
          "state": "MN",
          "poll_id": "eb8ad355-6d1e-479b-b7b1-5b54db88b965",
          "question_id": "d272749d-17c4-4b48-bf56-11420fa2e5fd",
          "pollster": "TIPP Insights",
          "start_date": "8/31/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-02",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1192,
          "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
          "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
          "opposition_pct": 43.96,
          "republican_pct": 41.86,
          "margin": 2.1000000000000014,
          "url": "https://www.dailysignal.com/2026/09/08/senator-tafoya-minnesota-polling-dead-heat/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 62,
          "raw_weight": 0.09104944053328537,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.09104944053328537,
          "normalized_weight": 0.010634819699245233,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.009867657233325694
        },
        {
          "state": "MN",
          "poll_id": "e5722003-c9f2-4014-9b05-6062607faa9f",
          "question_id": "fffa6378-d2a3-4959-93e9-9904d3d981e9",
          "pollster": "SurveyUSA",
          "start_date": "8/13/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-17",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 661,
          "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
          "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
          "opposition_pct": 46.0,
          "republican_pct": 41.0,
          "margin": 5.0,
          "url": "https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/kstp-surveyusa-poll-early-frontrunners-in-governor-and-senate-races-ag-a-toss-up/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 78,
          "raw_weight": 0.07996753186838952,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.04691592350778609,
          "normalized_weight": 0.005479906132388428,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.005084602928345479
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.14706666666666668,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.6393333333333333,
            "R": 0.32253333333333334,
            "unresolved": 0.03813333333333333
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.5278,
            "R": 0.42373333333333335,
            "unresolved": 0.048466666666666665
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.6393333333333333,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.5278,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 26738,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.6918617697658763,
              "R": 0.26961627646046826,
              "unresolved": 0.03852195377365547
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 3262,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.1223175965665236,
              "R": 0.841814837522992,
              "unresolved": 0.035867565910484366
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.6918617697658763,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.1223175965665236,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 26738,
          "republican": 3262
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "MS",
      "state_name": "Mississippi",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Scott Colom",
      "republican_name": "Cindy Hyde-Smith",
      "margin": -5.246776627755804,
      "sigma": 5.558315490300305,
      "win_probability": 0.1725973827635413,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.17516666666666666,
      "interval80": [
        -12.370044546140965,
        1.8764912906293567
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -16.140874803455493,
        5.647321547943885
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 2,
        "unique_pollsters": 2,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-22",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-15",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 12,
        "partisan_poll_count": 2,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 1.229946021276522,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-and-polls",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.8903754384477829,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.10962456155221711,
        "poll_average": -3.313114517821453,
        "poll_sigma": 5.890560327335389,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": -5.246776627755804,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 1.229946021276522,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": null
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.8903754384477829,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.10962456155221711,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "MS",
          "poll_id": "0c60a604-8bbb-48d3-9785-388eb501e585",
          "question_id": "2d9a619f-dba1-483a-b842-31a1f68961af",
          "pollster": "Change Research",
          "start_date": "10/21/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-22",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 842,
          "opposition_name": "Scott Colom",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "26226406-ccaa-49db-9f0a-9b788953f43c",
          "republican_name": "Cindy Hyde-Smith",
          "opposition_pct": 40.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.0,
          "margin": -3.0,
          "url": "https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm/2026/10/23/oil-politics-squeeze-iowa-01133929",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 12,
          "raw_weight": 0.39859631973500914,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.39859631973500914,
          "normalized_weight": 0.8956284940595158,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.797445613084569
        },
        {
          "state": "MS",
          "poll_id": "f1934772-c44e-47bc-8e72-4f1226f44b5f",
          "question_id": "be3f1651-26ac-4ecd-a71b-b011bdc73c36",
          "pollster": "Data for Progress",
          "start_date": "8/5/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-15",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1018,
          "opposition_name": "Scott Colom",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "26226406-ccaa-49db-9f0a-9b788953f43c",
          "republican_name": "Cindy Hyde-Smith",
          "opposition_pct": 38.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": -6.0,
          "url": "https://chartingthewayforward.substack.com/p/research-release-fresh-polling-from",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 80,
          "raw_weight": 0.04645017262069503,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.04645017262069503,
          "normalized_weight": 0.1043715059404842,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.092929825363214
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.12703333333333333,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.7219,
            "R": 0.2503,
            "unresolved": 0.0278
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.6209666666666667,
            "R": 0.3392,
            "unresolved": 0.03983333333333333
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.7219,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.6209666666666667,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 5255,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.9134157944814463,
              "R": 0.0725023786869648,
              "unresolved": 0.014081826831588963
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 24745,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.5697312588401697,
              "R": 0.3869064457466155,
              "unresolved": 0.04336229541321479
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.9134157944814463,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.5697312588401697,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 5255,
          "republican": 24745
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "MT",
      "state_name": "Montana",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_name": "Seth Bodnar",
      "republican_name": "Kurt Alme",
      "margin": -10.05393223477709,
      "sigma": 7.0,
      "win_probability": 0.07546190547057707,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.0756,
      "interval80": [
        -19.024793193589296,
        -1.0830712759648833
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -23.77368012655747,
        3.6658156570032894
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 10,
        "unique_pollsters": 7,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-23",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-25",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 11,
        "partisan_poll_count": 5,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 5.023196513849966,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "polls-only-independent",
        "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
        "poll_average": -10.05393223477709,
        "poll_sigma": 4.97546206769791,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": -10.05393223477709,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 5.023196513849966,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": "Independent challengers use the selected polling average without the historical Democratic prior, with sigma at least 7pp"
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "MT",
          "poll_id": "9c1f8d43-d445-4bc4-aae8-976b327e3347",
          "question_id": "fc99673a-2575-46dd-9920-8361f1ca6690",
          "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners",
          "start_date": "10/22/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-23",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 410,
          "opposition_name": "Seth Bodnar",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "IND",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "e9d54aff-c354-4cce-9a14-3812fc0f00e8",
          "republican_name": "Kurt Alme",
          "opposition_pct": 39.0,
          "republican_pct": 38.0,
          "margin": 1.0,
          "url": "https://dfer.org/policy-polling-memos/montana/montana-general-election-poll-findings/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 11,
          "raw_weight": 0.28747754593286484,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.28747754593286484,
          "normalized_weight": 0.10170232210334257,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.10170232210334257
        },
        {
          "state": "MT",
          "poll_id": "81be1cc2-3c9d-4786-9ee7-9d01bceb06e7",
          "question_id": "6bca737c-ba02-424d-bb2e-833c3dabb048",
          "pollster": "Montana State University Billings",
          "start_date": "10/5/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-21",
          "population": "a",
          "sample_size": 720,
          "opposition_name": "Seth Bodnar",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "IND",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "e9d54aff-c354-4cce-9a14-3812fc0f00e8",
          "republican_name": "Kurt Alme",
          "opposition_pct": 26.0,
          "republican_pct": 30.0,
          "margin": -4.0,
          "url": "https://dailymontanan.com/2026/10/29/mountain-state-poll-shows-close-races-for-federal-offices/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 13,
          "raw_weight": 0.7132449755354193,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7132449755354193,
          "normalized_weight": 0.2523281253327312,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.2523281253327312
        },
        {
          "state": "MT",
          "poll_id": "e0e77acf-3b20-4b3d-83ea-f06a01c90e97",
          "question_id": "3f6e523a-49b0-4e7d-b0f3-6899776bebd0",
          "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
          "start_date": "10/15/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-18",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 667,
          "opposition_name": "Seth Bodnar",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "IND",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "e9d54aff-c354-4cce-9a14-3812fc0f00e8",
          "republican_name": "Kurt Alme",
          "opposition_pct": 29.4,
          "republican_pct": 45.6,
          "margin": -16.200000000000003,
          "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/f/montana-senate-alme-leads-by-16-as-bodnar-consolidates",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 16,
          "raw_weight": 0.6217719196099188,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6217719196099188,
          "normalized_weight": 0.21996725983513554,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.21996725983513554
        },
        {
          "state": "MT",
          "poll_id": "2cefcb18-80ff-4334-84b2-c2e374e1f0a0",
          "question_id": "35b4c7e5-e10b-42fe-ac47-79f9c9bd0b84",
          "pollster": "Peak Insights",
          "start_date": "10/7/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-12",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 500,
          "opposition_name": "Seth Bodnar",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "IND",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "e9d54aff-c354-4cce-9a14-3812fc0f00e8",
          "republican_name": "Kurt Alme",
          "opposition_pct": 29.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": -15.0,
          "url": "https://x.com/burgessev/status/2111155739154882819",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 22,
          "raw_weight": 0.2208079084169283,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2208079084169283,
          "normalized_weight": 0.07811628192355642,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.07811628192355642
        },
        {
          "state": "MT",
          "poll_id": "f5b9889e-ffc5-4ce2-babc-27f82664db2b",
          "question_id": "7e5a4878-869d-4654-9512-92a32707376a",
          "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners",
          "start_date": "10/6/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-08",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 405,
          "opposition_name": "Seth Bodnar",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "IND",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "e9d54aff-c354-4cce-9a14-3812fc0f00e8",
          "republican_name": "Kurt Alme",
          "opposition_pct": 37.0,
          "republican_pct": 35.0,
          "margin": 2.0,
          "url": "https://www.sethformontana.com/news/new-poll-independent-seth-bodnar-takes-the-lead-in-montanas-us-senate-race",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 26,
          "raw_weight": 0.1741478377678886,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.1741478377678886,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0616091230109728,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0616091230109728
        },
        {
          "state": "MT",
          "poll_id": "08b59de1-c77b-418d-b8ce-f313b38f3880",
          "question_id": "f389f82e-d11f-44a1-ba81-d2df85fcb87c",
          "pollster": "American Pulse Research & Polling",
          "start_date": "9/19/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-24",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 604,
          "opposition_name": "Seth Bodnar",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "IND",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "e9d54aff-c354-4cce-9a14-3812fc0f00e8",
          "republican_name": "Kurt Alme",
          "opposition_pct": 26.1,
          "republican_pct": 45.1,
          "margin": -19.0,
          "url": "https://www.montanarightnow.com/elections/montana-senate-race-kurt-alme-tops-bodnar-and-bankhead-in-new-poll-findings/article_cd8401fb-0470-492c-a53a-c7dfe39552ff.html",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 40,
          "raw_weight": 0.26794914536865005,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.26794914536865005,
          "normalized_weight": 0.09479366536669197,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.09479366536669197
        },
        {
          "state": "MT",
          "poll_id": "691239ff-c2cc-463f-9ea4-0305cc655c29",
          "question_id": "82391d18-dd35-4acc-a3a8-9dab2c851cf0",
          "pollster": "Aspect Strategic",
          "start_date": "9/7/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-15",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 715,
          "opposition_name": "Seth Bodnar",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "IND",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "e9d54aff-c354-4cce-9a14-3812fc0f00e8",
          "republican_name": "Kurt Alme",
          "opposition_pct": 32.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": -12.0,
          "url": "https://x.com/burgessev/status/2102451722702442813",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 49,
          "raw_weight": 0.10830389527964929,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.10830389527964929,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03831519295545215,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03831519295545215
        },
        {
          "state": "MT",
          "poll_id": "e0d850c2-a12e-48c5-ac86-e4ed1aafda05",
          "question_id": "af41084a-5007-45ca-976d-4492c56e0fb8",
          "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
          "start_date": "9/14/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-15",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 625,
          "opposition_name": "Seth Bodnar",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "IND",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "e9d54aff-c354-4cce-9a14-3812fc0f00e8",
          "republican_name": "Kurt Alme",
          "opposition_pct": 26.1,
          "republican_pct": 45.3,
          "margin": -19.199999999999996,
          "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/f/latest-survey-alme-leads-as-montana%E2%80%99s-senate-opposition-splits",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 49,
          "raw_weight": 0.20251680179579853,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.20251680179579853,
          "normalized_weight": 0.07164534865058647,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.07164534865058647
        },
        {
          "state": "MT",
          "poll_id": "b611f1b0-7ca1-49c8-9c2d-29140802d492",
          "question_id": "3e2533f4-2968-4e87-902c-49cbd0be9100",
          "pollster": "Rutgers-Eagleton",
          "start_date": "8/27/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-07",
          "population": "rv",
          "sample_size": 845,
          "opposition_name": "Seth Bodnar",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "IND",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "e9d54aff-c354-4cce-9a14-3812fc0f00e8",
          "republican_name": "Kurt Alme",
          "opposition_pct": 30.0,
          "republican_pct": 38.0,
          "margin": -8.0,
          "url": "https://montanafreepress.org/2026/09/11/alme-holds-an-8-point-lead-over-bodnar-in-senate-race/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 57,
          "raw_weight": 0.18083034566853576,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.18083034566853576,
          "normalized_weight": 0.06397322615775722,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06397322615775722
        },
        {
          "state": "MT",
          "poll_id": "8e8910b5-5bcb-4f44-bb67-c6b9e2b7a942",
          "question_id": "f691def6-0d95-4a8d-abd2-1bd9532947c3",
          "pollster": "Peak Insights",
          "start_date": "8/23/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-25",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 600,
          "opposition_name": "Seth Bodnar",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "IND",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "e9d54aff-c354-4cce-9a14-3812fc0f00e8",
          "republican_name": "Kurt Alme",
          "opposition_pct": 22.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": -22.0,
          "url": "https://www.semafor.com/article/09/08/2026/republican-exploits-divided-field-in-montana-senate-race",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 70,
          "raw_weight": 0.04960628287400624,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.04960628287400624,
          "normalized_weight": 0.017549454663773615,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.017549454663773615
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.08833333333333333,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.6299333333333333,
            "R": 0.247,
            "unresolved": 0.12306666666666667
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.6299333333333333,
            "R": 0.3353333333333333,
            "unresolved": 0.03473333333333333
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.6299333333333333,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.6299333333333333,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 2268,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.8690476190476191,
              "R": 0.06481481481481481,
              "unresolved": 0.06613756613756613
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 27732,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.6103779027837877,
              "R": 0.353670849560075,
              "unresolved": 0.03595124765613732
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.8690476190476191,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.6103779027837877,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 2268,
          "republican": 27732
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "NE",
      "state_name": "Nebraska",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
      "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
      "margin": -1.756586632626388,
      "sigma": 7.0,
      "win_probability": 0.40092988275621844,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.40376666666666666,
      "interval80": [
        -10.727447591438594,
        7.214274326185818
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -15.476334524406766,
        11.963161259153992
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 15,
        "unique_pollsters": 10,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-13",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 2,
        "partisan_poll_count": 8,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 8.004591004866318,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "polls-only-independent",
        "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
        "poll_average": -1.756586632626388,
        "poll_sigma": 4.7422413379194515,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": -1.756586632626388,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 8.004591004866318,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": "Independent challengers use the selected polling average without the historical Democratic prior, with sigma at least 7pp"
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "NE",
          "poll_id": "abc2a463-cbe3-4da8-8494-b10266a5ca04",
          "question_id": "a30a4103-a656-4bc9-86c1-6f5483fc6a70",
          "pollster": "GrayHouse",
          "start_date": "10/29/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 534,
          "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
          "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
          "opposition_pct": 46.0,
          "republican_pct": 50.0,
          "margin": -4.0,
          "url": "https://www.grayhouse.com/post/grayhouse-poll-ricketts-leads-in-nebraska-by-4",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 0.8831317119690731,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8831317119690731,
          "normalized_weight": 0.14357640474081915,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.14357640474081915
        },
        {
          "state": "NE",
          "poll_id": "4413d374-c87c-4b80-861f-b5716eee7311",
          "question_id": "b9cc31b8-fbe9-4f9f-a129-a2e6c05e6015",
          "pollster": "National Public Affairs",
          "start_date": "10/25/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-29",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
          "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 49.0,
          "margin": -1.0,
          "url": "https://backend.natpublicaffairs.com/media/Nebraska_General_Election_Memo_103126.2.pdf",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 5,
          "raw_weight": 0.4895145039466855,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.48680605619781325,
          "normalized_weight": 0.07914319280767357,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.07914319280767357
        },
        {
          "state": "NE",
          "poll_id": "261adc4a-cfbe-4fe7-9455-24765fbcea0c",
          "question_id": "408bdfa1-e329-4aa3-8e01-7e77dfc2b40f",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "10/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-29",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1974,
          "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
          "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
          "opposition_pct": 49.0,
          "republican_pct": 49.0,
          "margin": 0.0,
          "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ne_20261026_lv.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 5,
          "raw_weight": 1.537885989693987,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7113813882669676,
          "normalized_weight": 0.11565384952508735,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.11565384952508735
        },
        {
          "state": "NE",
          "poll_id": "96d6e3cb-710e-4140-86b4-4f4f2545b2bd",
          "question_id": "78584ab5-d30e-42b1-8fc7-64832f1db9c2",
          "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
          "start_date": "10/23/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-29",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 809,
          "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
          "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
          "opposition_pct": 43.01,
          "republican_pct": 48.7,
          "margin": -5.690000000000005,
          "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/31/polls/times-siena-ne-poll-toplines.html",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 5,
          "raw_weight": 0.9845206440331843,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.9845206440331843,
          "normalized_weight": 0.16005985579232665,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.16005985579232665
        },
        {
          "state": "NE",
          "poll_id": "fb010920-9374-48f4-8c80-c2ca49ce24d7",
          "question_id": "52c772f8-8b10-4210-b307-dac506b8ba99",
          "pollster": "Echelon Insights",
          "start_date": "10/16/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-23",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 407,
          "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
          "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
          "opposition_pct": 46.0,
          "republican_pct": 47.0,
          "margin": -1.0,
          "url": "https://netchoice.org/netchoice-echelon-insights-poll-voters-rank-ai-regulation-far-behind-cost-of-living-want-one-national-ai-standard/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 11,
          "raw_weight": 0.5728477356296522,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5728477356296522,
          "normalized_weight": 0.09313154225007038,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.09313154225007038
        },
        {
          "state": "NE",
          "poll_id": "f79f220c-b0e7-41a2-b25d-a3ed6c29705a",
          "question_id": "bfb5db95-f785-46de-8a75-e58628c6d0d7",
          "pollster": "GBAO",
          "start_date": "10/18/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-22",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
          "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
          "opposition_pct": 46.0,
          "republican_pct": 45.0,
          "margin": 1.0,
          "url": "https://docsend.com/view/hhiqc5yfcc548rdz",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 12,
          "raw_weight": 0.38852791925933,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.38852791925933,
          "normalized_weight": 0.06316548373549899,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06316548373549899
        },
        {
          "state": "NE",
          "poll_id": "7eceef25-8055-4ff6-966d-1b3bf5508d9c",
          "question_id": "f85fcfc3-f556-486a-af7a-b3d2068f0ed1",
          "pollster": "Impact Research",
          "start_date": "10/14/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-20",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 600,
          "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
          "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 50.0,
          "margin": -2.0,
          "url": "https://www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-digest-keisha-lance-bottoms",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 14,
          "raw_weight": 0.3149802624737183,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3149802624737183,
          "normalized_weight": 0.05120836794487088,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05120836794487088
        },
        {
          "state": "NE",
          "poll_id": "2ecb9952-292c-4d6d-9c7c-c5a75219c5b3",
          "question_id": "4ca88fbc-daee-451d-9cf9-aa5a9bed3f61",
          "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners",
          "start_date": "10/15/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-18",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 500,
          "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
          "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 41.0,
          "margin": 7.0,
          "url": "https://concordpublicopinionpartners.org/polls/nebraska-ge-2026",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 16,
          "raw_weight": 0.2691678553165669,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2691678553165669,
          "normalized_weight": 0.043760350142995466,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.043760350142995466
        },
        {
          "state": "NE",
          "poll_id": "185e2532-edd0-4c81-9527-3a3dcf8f228c",
          "question_id": "88ebd656-01e9-41e5-b177-15c72dc9b862",
          "pollster": "National Public Affairs",
          "start_date": "10/15/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-18",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 598,
          "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
          "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
          "opposition_pct": 43.0,
          "republican_pct": 46.0,
          "margin": -3.0,
          "url": "https://backend.natpublicaffairs.com/media/NE_Tracker_R2_Trend_Memo_102226.7.pdf",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 16,
          "raw_weight": 0.2943667709941485,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2927380612995145,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0475923101871963,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0475923101871963
        },
        {
          "state": "NE",
          "poll_id": "85cb655e-59af-411e-8b66-96853337a024",
          "question_id": "622c9a09-59fa-44ab-8b7a-0ce9dcb9f929",
          "pollster": "National Public Affairs",
          "start_date": "10/2/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-05",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
          "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
          "opposition_pct": 43.0,
          "republican_pct": 46.0,
          "margin": -3.0,
          "url": "https://backend.natpublicaffairs.com/media/Nebraska_General_Election_Memo_100926.pdf",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 29,
          "raw_weight": 0.2216824351124603,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.22045588250267234,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03584093129565548,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03584093129565548
        },
        {
          "state": "NE",
          "poll_id": "3b9ac4c6-eb6c-4323-b9c1-aa2e503ac01a",
          "question_id": "73f526cc-f258-4095-84f3-5366ada6c7db",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "9/24/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-03",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1808,
          "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
          "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 47.0,
          "margin": 1.0,
          "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ne_20260921_lv.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 31,
          "raw_weight": 0.623944520716904,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.28861861173303227,
          "normalized_weight": 0.046922584765437966,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.046922584765437966
        },
        {
          "state": "NE",
          "poll_id": "c15969eb-0f9d-4487-8425-7fca11a9da78",
          "question_id": "817cac01-429f-48fc-ad77-5fd6d3aab757",
          "pollster": "co/efficient",
          "start_date": "9/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-30",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1113,
          "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
          "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
          "opposition_pct": 40.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": -4.0,
          "url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/ne/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 34,
          "raw_weight": 0.44339425246230185,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.44339425246230185,
          "normalized_weight": 0.07208545655023402,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.07208545655023402
        },
        {
          "state": "NE",
          "poll_id": "bb94417f-3a6e-4bd8-9e2d-29ba8c451b23",
          "question_id": "33fcc82a-db80-4118-a852-bf049ff83467",
          "pollster": "SurveyUSA",
          "start_date": "9/8/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-13",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 503,
          "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
          "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
          "opposition_pct": 46.0,
          "republican_pct": 42.0,
          "margin": 4.0,
          "url": "https://results.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d94236a7-5861-4b7f-9d81-d5a81ab786cc",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 51,
          "raw_weight": 0.17007305804202813,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.17007305804202813,
          "normalized_weight": 0.027649871345358488,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.027649871345358488
        },
        {
          "state": "NE",
          "poll_id": "0a523abb-0261-44c2-bdeb-b8e381161787",
          "question_id": "01c36d81-2841-4ad6-a8d5-7e85d96f0539",
          "pollster": "GBAO",
          "start_date": "9/3/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-08",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
          "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
          "opposition_pct": 47.0,
          "republican_pct": 46.0,
          "margin": 1.0,
          "url": "https://www.washingtonsun.com/newsletters/panic-week",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 56,
          "raw_weight": 0.09092696966431013,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.09092696966431013,
          "normalized_weight": 0.014782582508866306,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.014782582508866306
        },
        {
          "state": "NE",
          "poll_id": "f057f5b3-bf14-4228-b266-cff675d04677",
          "question_id": "1f9e45b4-61ec-452b-ae00-664c41b33762",
          "pollster": "Impact Research",
          "start_date": "8/9/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-13",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 600,
          "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
          "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
          "opposition_pct": 47.0,
          "republican_pct": 47.0,
          "margin": 0.0,
          "url": "https://omaha.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/article_666083f7-4e07-45ae-a534-adbb42b64734.html#tncms-source=login",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 82,
          "raw_weight": 0.03338255283795007,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.03338255283795007,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0054272164079089795,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0054272164079089795
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.0952,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.6299333333333333,
            "R": 0.2675666666666667,
            "unresolved": 0.1025
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.6299333333333333,
            "R": 0.3627666666666667,
            "unresolved": 0.0073
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.6299333333333333,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.6299333333333333,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 12113,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.7729711879798563,
              "R": 0.1440601007182366,
              "unresolved": 0.08296871130190704
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 17887,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.5330687091183541,
              "R": 0.45899256443226927,
              "unresolved": 0.007938726449376642
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.7729711879798563,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.5330687091183541,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 12113,
          "republican": 17887
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "NH",
      "state_name": "New Hampshire",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
      "republican_name": "John Sununu",
      "margin": 7.151632190862992,
      "sigma": 4.566007301676962,
      "win_probability": 0.941358107751157,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.9430666666666667,
      "interval80": [
        1.3000583851108036,
        13.003205996615181
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -1.7975776735707658,
        16.100842055296752
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 16,
        "unique_pollsters": 11,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-18",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 2,
        "partisan_poll_count": 4,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 7.905420634432575,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-and-polls",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.9260233457974149,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.07397665420258515,
        "poll_average": 7.2878487430086185,
        "poll_sigma": 4.744884374252273,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": 7.151632190862993,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 7.905420634432575,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": null
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.9260233457974149,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.07397665420258515,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "NH",
          "poll_id": "1f1b2e83-9099-441c-9043-1c82ac488b78",
          "question_id": "7af2017b-6780-4124-ae8a-a6aef60302e8",
          "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
          "start_date": "10/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1057,
          "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
          "republican_name": "John Sununu",
          "opposition_pct": 52.3,
          "republican_pct": 44.2,
          "margin": 8.099999999999994,
          "url": "https://pollstergraph.com/poll/exclusive-atlas-us-nh-20261101-governor",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 1.2424884064632893,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
          "normalized_weight": 0.1672099970349773,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.15484036090510547
        },
        {
          "state": "NH",
          "poll_id": "63516926-7ba4-457a-8b7c-e52aed2edb55",
          "question_id": "e72f5efd-1b9b-45fd-af9b-3dabf5364abb",
          "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
          "start_date": "10/27/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-31",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 2035,
          "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
          "republican_name": "John Sununu",
          "opposition_pct": 54.0,
          "republican_pct": 42.0,
          "margin": 12.0,
          "url": "https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1011/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 3,
          "raw_weight": 1.653617605945258,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7549332634218456,
          "normalized_weight": 0.12623238873837253,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.11689413896750764
        },
        {
          "state": "NH",
          "poll_id": "e03c576a-cd8f-42bf-b7af-64de93b2e78c",
          "question_id": "f6c6a69f-93f5-4789-a7d3-aca5196db727",
          "pollster": "National Public Affairs",
          "start_date": "10/25/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-29",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
          "republican_name": "John Sununu",
          "opposition_pct": 51.0,
          "republican_pct": 46.0,
          "margin": 5.0,
          "url": "https://backend.natpublicaffairs.com/media/NH_General_Election_Memo_103126.2.pdf",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 5,
          "raw_weight": 0.4895145039466855,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4895145039466855,
          "normalized_weight": 0.08185171875350367,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.07579660245938846
        },
        {
          "state": "NH",
          "poll_id": "2e6c66e4-f4aa-418e-9126-6e237ed7459f",
          "question_id": "9cd4fde3-bf20-452f-a176-cb35e7eb916c",
          "pollster": "St. Anselm",
          "start_date": "10/19/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-20",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1672,
          "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
          "republican_name": "John Sununu",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.0,
          "margin": 7.0,
          "url": "https://www.anselm.edu/about/anselmian-hub/news/new-saint-anselm-college-poll-finds-democrats-leading-congressional-races-affordability-concerns-shape-election-landscape",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 14,
          "raw_weight": 1.0516127612091086,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6624504301140859,
          "normalized_weight": 0.11076833445519572,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.10257406368060741
        },
        {
          "state": "NH",
          "poll_id": "9ca6ae7a-4091-4042-b3a3-d89b4b491a41",
          "question_id": "2efc158b-7114-4c9c-8bd4-6929f8f2c048",
          "pollster": "UMass Lowell",
          "start_date": "10/2/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-19",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 600,
          "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
          "republican_name": "John Sununu",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 41.0,
          "margin": 7.0,
          "url": "https://www.uml.edu/news/press-releases/2026/102826-new-england-polls.aspx",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 15,
          "raw_weight": 0.6095068271022377,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6095068271022377,
          "normalized_weight": 0.10191563475256359,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.09437625708263621
        },
        {
          "state": "NH",
          "poll_id": "22e1eaa2-8ba2-4c4b-b62c-c75eddf57007",
          "question_id": "d44e3e2d-b7f7-4945-ab81-11d8c1b07d15",
          "pollster": "National Public Affairs",
          "start_date": "10/8/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-12",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 600,
          "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
          "republican_name": "John Sununu",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.0,
          "margin": 7.0,
          "url": "https://backend.natpublicaffairs.com/media/NH_General_Election_Memo_101526.2.pdf",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 22,
          "raw_weight": 0.2418829446309729,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2418829446309729,
          "normalized_weight": 0.040445246454556556,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03745324244344949
        },
        {
          "state": "NH",
          "poll_id": "7e22772a-4e0b-4e0f-abbe-0afd9e57484f",
          "question_id": "583112e3-bbf9-4342-a6a3-44a46eeaf71c",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "9/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-05",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1519,
          "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
          "republican_name": "John Sununu",
          "opposition_pct": 51.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.0,
          "margin": 8.0,
          "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_nh_20260921_lv.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 29,
          "raw_weight": 0.6109352338619688,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6109352338619688,
          "normalized_weight": 0.10215447864262296,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.09459743210083227
        },
        {
          "state": "NH",
          "poll_id": "16fd8632-e35b-4456-ae81-53c7b9b050a3",
          "question_id": "903844c3-8b83-4446-8e68-03aa4da0c847",
          "pollster": "St. Anselm",
          "start_date": "9/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-29",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1042,
          "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
          "republican_name": "John Sununu",
          "opposition_pct": 51.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": 7.0,
          "url": "https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/voter-research/politics/2026-midterm-election-poll-new-hampshire/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 35,
          "raw_weight": 0.4150893347811388,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2614803837539752,
          "normalized_weight": 0.04372213419220692,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.040487716990071
        },
        {
          "state": "NH",
          "poll_id": "b793fcb5-4f42-4c49-94aa-37bff6ae998e",
          "question_id": "078645fe-eb48-4089-8bee-ecb0989fd623",
          "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
          "start_date": "9/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-27",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1082,
          "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
          "republican_name": "John Sununu",
          "opposition_pct": 47.4,
          "republican_pct": 40.5,
          "margin": 6.899999999999999,
          "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/nh-gen-senate-0926/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 37,
          "raw_weight": 0.197980231022253,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.197980231022253,
          "normalized_weight": 0.033104273842215044,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03065533042356182
        },
        {
          "state": "NH",
          "poll_id": "36e4cd66-5680-44d1-b419-438727e79ac8",
          "question_id": "6c27da1d-636a-478c-a62a-7f8a5abc4fc0",
          "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
          "start_date": "9/15/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-22",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 613,
          "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
          "republican_name": "John Sununu",
          "opposition_pct": 49.82,
          "republican_pct": 44.82,
          "margin": 5.0,
          "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/09/24/polls/times-siena-poll-nh-toplines.html",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 42,
          "raw_weight": 0.25269382000093843,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.25269382000093843,
          "normalized_weight": 0.042252932893114,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03912720228743507
        },
        {
          "state": "NH",
          "poll_id": "b43da69c-6c45-48c7-9257-45e13bb3984b",
          "question_id": "e218d656-69f5-475c-bf9d-4fda9a20f4dc",
          "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
          "start_date": "9/17/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-21",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1392,
          "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
          "republican_name": "John Sununu",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 42.0,
          "margin": 8.0,
          "url": "https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1005/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 43,
          "raw_weight": 0.3684251248975464,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.16819873038695338,
          "normalized_weight": 0.028124509209289418,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.026043952116896394
        },
        {
          "state": "NH",
          "poll_id": "455c3365-5ec1-4a4d-b7f3-e230b9c3fc64",
          "question_id": "0b88de69-f360-443a-bb14-c0a037c1e3d6",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "start_date": "9/16/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-17",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1200,
          "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
          "republican_name": "John Sununu",
          "opposition_pct": 47.8,
          "republican_pct": 39.9,
          "margin": 7.899999999999999,
          "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/nh-top-line-tabs/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 47,
          "raw_weight": 0.29976518909025046,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.29976518909025046,
          "normalized_weight": 0.050123736378970184,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.046415750065521566
        },
        {
          "state": "NH",
          "poll_id": "d07181b1-c252-41b9-9cb7-6714cf8bab4a",
          "question_id": "6088aea8-be34-49b7-8845-de9c4354899b",
          "pollster": "co/efficient",
          "start_date": "9/9/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-11",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 958,
          "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
          "republican_name": "John Sununu",
          "opposition_pct": 46.0,
          "republican_pct": 46.0,
          "margin": 0.0,
          "url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/nh/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 53,
          "raw_weight": 0.21971755588921812,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.21971755588921812,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03673897186876862,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.034021145651074225
        },
        {
          "state": "NH",
          "poll_id": "a7102e62-abb1-46c2-a128-21e53a60375c",
          "question_id": "c75b4bc8-eda8-4398-8de1-d68c16b85e36",
          "pollster": "Fabrizio, Lee & Associates",
          "start_date": "8/27/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-30",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 600,
          "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
          "republican_name": "John Sununu",
          "opposition_pct": 36.0,
          "republican_pct": 37.0,
          "margin": -1.0,
          "url": "https://www.unionleader.com/news/politics/voters/national-senate-gop-poll-sununu-vs-pappas-is-a-dead-heat/article_4c03176f-b04f-4a9a-b85f-ce15695fc83c.html",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 65,
          "raw_weight": 0.05850735890335031,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.05850735890335031,
          "normalized_weight": 0.009783015308753557,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.009059300568199298
        },
        {
          "state": "NH",
          "poll_id": "da531189-726e-4fe8-af41-495962027a60",
          "question_id": "b40bb97c-487e-4e89-8f73-b291b4291331",
          "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
          "start_date": "8/20/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-24",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1846,
          "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
          "republican_name": "John Sununu",
          "opposition_pct": 43.0,
          "republican_pct": 45.0,
          "margin": -2.0,
          "url": "https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/988/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 71,
          "raw_weight": 0.16837288079681795,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.07686800619120106,
          "normalized_weight": 0.012853099087315344,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.011902269820701453
        },
        {
          "state": "NH",
          "poll_id": "ceea1397-da26-4ef3-8b12-629a82c88d6c",
          "question_id": "be5a893d-e479-4bcf-ba2b-aeffcb50bbd2",
          "pollster": "St. Anselm",
          "start_date": "8/17/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-18",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1411,
          "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
          "republican_name": "John Sununu",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 41.0,
          "margin": 7.0,
          "url": "https://www.anselm.edu/about/anselmian-hub/news/new-saint-anselm-college-poll-finds-republicans-facing-midterm-headwinds-democratic-lead-widens",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 77,
          "raw_weight": 0.1207566985160854,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.07606918613193879,
          "normalized_weight": 0.01271952838757462,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.011778580234427048
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.1462,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.634,
            "R": 0.3273,
            "unresolved": 0.0387
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.524,
            "R": 0.4287666666666667,
            "unresolved": 0.047233333333333336
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.634,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.524,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 28292,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.6627315142089637,
              "R": 0.29796408878835007,
              "unresolved": 0.03930439700268627
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 1708,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.08665105386416862,
              "R": 0.8928571428571429,
              "unresolved": 0.020491803278688523
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.6627315142089637,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.08665105386416862,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 28292,
          "republican": 1708
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "NJ",
      "state_name": "New Jersey",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Democratic candidate",
      "republican_name": "Republican candidate",
      "margin": 7.8617628080517195,
      "sigma": 16.787624984224102,
      "win_probability": 0.6802174793095208,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.6800333333333334,
      "interval80": [
        -13.652444272256336,
        29.375969888359773
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -25.04137754699231,
        40.76490316309575
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 0,
        "unique_pollsters": 0,
        "latest_poll_date": null,
        "oldest_poll_date": null,
        "latest_poll_age_days": null,
        "partisan_poll_count": 0,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 0,
        "has_polls": false,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-only",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.0,
        "prior_weight_share": 1.0,
        "poll_sigma": null,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.0,
      "prior_weight_share": 1.0,
      "polls": [],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.14156666666666667,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.6686666666666666,
            "R": 0.29763333333333336,
            "unresolved": 0.0337
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.5583,
            "R": 0.3961,
            "unresolved": 0.0456
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.6686666666666666,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.5583,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 20401,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.7005538944169404,
              "R": 0.2665555610019117,
              "unresolved": 0.032890544581147985
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 9599,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.4798416501718929,
              "R": 0.47056985102614857,
              "unresolved": 0.049588498801958536
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.7005538944169404,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.4798416501718929,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 20401,
          "republican": 9599
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "NM",
      "state_name": "New Mexico",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Ben Ray Luj\u00e1n",
      "republican_name": "Larry Marker",
      "margin": 16.818502831739263,
      "sigma": 4.911653876412247,
      "win_probability": 0.999691697956691,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.9996666666666667,
      "interval80": [
        10.52396511700994,
        23.113040546468586
      ],
      "interval95": [
        7.191838129444713,
        26.445167534033814
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 4,
        "unique_pollsters": 3,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-28",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 1,
        "partisan_poll_count": 0,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 2.6610246101191586,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-and-polls",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.9143993640784521,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.08560063592154787,
        "poll_average": 17.64072695176501,
        "poll_sigma": 5.136411348705095,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": 16.81850283173926,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 2.6610246101191586,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": null
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.9143993640784521,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.08560063592154787,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "NM",
          "poll_id": "9d7b82a6-e65d-460b-a09f-ac6d2fa865c8",
          "question_id": "dca9ba8b-08fb-4649-9f51-30d1de8ddeb7",
          "pollster": "Research Co.",
          "start_date": "10/31/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-02",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 450,
          "opposition_name": "Ben Ray Luj\u00e1n",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "0fc6395b-6961-4030-83bf-f71230ee9157",
          "republican_name": "Larry Marker",
          "opposition_pct": 56.0,
          "republican_pct": 37.0,
          "margin": 19.0,
          "url": "https://researchco.ca/2026/11/02/midterms-2026-two/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 1,
          "raw_weight": 0.8379070991704293,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8379070991704293,
          "normalized_weight": 0.4514746673428378,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.41282814871582163
        },
        {
          "state": "NM",
          "poll_id": "ec82f919-7670-441e-90f0-e9a83b39b77d",
          "question_id": "b1ab46eb-f8ad-47cd-a9c2-dca4f0520c1d",
          "pollster": "Research & Polling Inc.",
          "start_date": "10/1/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-09",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1125,
          "opposition_name": "Ben Ray Luj\u00e1n",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "0fc6395b-6961-4030-83bf-f71230ee9157",
          "republican_name": "Larry Marker",
          "opposition_pct": 53.0,
          "republican_pct": 37.0,
          "margin": 16.0,
          "url": "https://www.abqjournal.com/news/journal-poll-haaland-maintains-lead-over-hull-as-new-mexicos-race-for-governor-nears-homestretch/3139307",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 25,
          "raw_weight": 0.5999728437294882,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5999728437294882,
          "normalized_weight": 0.3232727593616103,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.29560040558414297
        },
        {
          "state": "NM",
          "poll_id": "6374ca46-47a8-4e37-b131-bb3a2d48d8a8",
          "question_id": "4490659f-bc7e-4165-8f5e-c9f57799d567",
          "pollster": "SurveyUSA",
          "start_date": "9/25/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-30",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 567,
          "opposition_name": "Ben Ray Luj\u00e1n",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "0fc6395b-6961-4030-83bf-f71230ee9157",
          "republican_name": "Larry Marker",
          "opposition_pct": 54.0,
          "republican_pct": 36.0,
          "margin": 18.0,
          "url": "https://www.kob.com/new-mexico/kob-poll-finds-haaland-leading-hull-by-6-points-in-head-to-head-race/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 34,
          "raw_weight": 0.3164710635121857,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3164710635121857,
          "normalized_weight": 0.17051850767734908,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.15592201498377464
        },
        {
          "state": "NM",
          "poll_id": "361a1729-e7e4-48e0-b0d8-5ef49ee4f5eb",
          "question_id": "afa5f143-eb40-4d1e-9c54-ef8376aeae57",
          "pollster": "Research & Polling Inc.",
          "start_date": "8/21/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-28",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 516,
          "opposition_name": "Ben Ray Luj\u00e1n",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "0fc6395b-6961-4030-83bf-f71230ee9157",
          "republican_name": "Larry Marker",
          "opposition_pct": 53.0,
          "republican_pct": 38.0,
          "margin": 15.0,
          "url": "https://www.abqjournal.com/news/journal-poll-haaland-leads-hull-by-closer-than-expected-margin-in-new-mexicos-race-for-governor/3111874",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 67,
          "raw_weight": 0.10158280290204144,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.10158280290204144,
          "normalized_weight": 0.05473406561820278,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05004879479471289
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.14406666666666668,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.6299666666666667,
            "R": 0.3318333333333333,
            "unresolved": 0.0382
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.5215,
            "R": 0.43133333333333335,
            "unresolved": 0.04716666666666667
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.6299666666666667,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.5215,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 29990,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.630110036678893,
              "R": 0.331677225741914,
              "unresolved": 0.038212737579193065
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 10,
            "reliable_sample": false,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.1,
              "R": 0.8,
              "unresolved": 0.1
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.630110036678893,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.1,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 29990,
          "republican": 10
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "NC",
      "state_name": "North Carolina",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
      "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
      "margin": 9.983415190305381,
      "sigma": 4.509033424757979,
      "win_probability": 0.9865887772958013,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.9860333333333333,
      "interval80": [
        4.204856345713861,
        15.761974034896902
      ],
      "interval95": [
        1.1458720726924465,
        18.820958307918318
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 27,
        "unique_pollsters": 14,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-06",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 2,
        "partisan_poll_count": 4,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 11.250404834112196,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-and-polls",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.9278579645895546,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.0721420354104454,
        "poll_average": 10.886274954739477,
        "poll_sigma": 4.681043798666633,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": 9.983415190305381,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 11.250404834112196,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": null
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.9278579645895546,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.0721420354104454,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "NC",
          "poll_id": "5e6a38ed-064b-4310-8cc2-eff8991ebae5",
          "question_id": "42aa4b3b-4a87-475e-b67f-ba3943b753a4",
          "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
          "start_date": "10/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1459,
          "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
          "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
          "opposition_pct": 56.4,
          "republican_pct": 41.5,
          "margin": 14.899999999999999,
          "url": "https://pollstergraph.com/poll/exclusive-atlas-us-nc-20261101-senate",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 1.4597634900144252,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
          "normalized_weight": 0.11446683257964814,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.10620896229036564
        },
        {
          "state": "NC",
          "poll_id": "52d83e1b-b2b1-4d0f-bb53-8adc59029127",
          "question_id": "5c4cb292-9d2d-40b0-a22d-dcc3baf9c1f8",
          "pollster": "East Carolina University Center for Survey Research",
          "start_date": "10/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-29",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1041,
          "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
          "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
          "opposition_pct": 54.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.9,
          "margin": 9.100000000000001,
          "url": "https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/ecu-poll-cooper-leads-whatley-by-9-points-as-election-day-nears",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 5,
          "raw_weight": 1.1168013520915674,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6663257172909025,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0762721943246517,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0707697629808503
        },
        {
          "state": "NC",
          "poll_id": "affe090f-1582-4758-9ad6-3d3a3e136282",
          "question_id": "1e48c04f-95be-44b9-bf71-c7904767952e",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "10/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-29",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 2123,
          "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
          "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
          "opposition_pct": 55.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": 11.0,
          "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_nc_20261026_lv.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 5,
          "raw_weight": 1.5479807801590098,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5699765698400641,
          "normalized_weight": 0.06524341259420474,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.060536620012535326
        },
        {
          "state": "NC",
          "poll_id": "e8fc52e0-346a-4e42-9092-b1a5bd07dfe4",
          "question_id": "b67ca8ad-8617-461a-bf6b-a886d8d32022",
          "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
          "start_date": "10/24/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-25",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 722,
          "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
          "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
          "opposition_pct": 52.4,
          "republican_pct": 43.4,
          "margin": 9.0,
          "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/f/north-carolina-senate-cooper-holds-a-9-point-lead-over-whatley",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 9,
          "raw_weight": 0.8150422427050906,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7530238336295543,
          "normalized_weight": 0.086196253092559,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0799778799497079
        },
        {
          "state": "NC",
          "poll_id": "41c3566b-9863-48a7-ae10-148260fd80a0",
          "question_id": "7faeed65-472b-4f0d-8a15-d6ebd68e636e",
          "pollster": "High Point University",
          "start_date": "10/1/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-20",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 620,
          "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
          "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
          "opposition_pct": 54.0,
          "republican_pct": 40.0,
          "margin": 14.0,
          "url": "https://www.highpoint.edu/blog/2026/10/hpu-yougov-poll-north-carolina-likely-voters-weigh-in-on-u-s-senate-race-and-more/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 14,
          "raw_weight": 0.6403738010660531,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6403738010660531,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0733015606750208,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06801343688916253
        },
        {
          "state": "NC",
          "poll_id": "18d80fb0-669e-456f-ae5e-8fd9d8f0b142",
          "question_id": "12c5b963-5590-4f8c-86e6-8189d2c41e19",
          "pollster": "Harper Polling",
          "start_date": "10/18/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-20",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 600,
          "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
          "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
          "opposition_pct": 49.4,
          "republican_pct": 39.1,
          "margin": 10.299999999999997,
          "url": "https://www.carolinajournal.com/polls/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 14,
          "raw_weight": 0.6299605249474366,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6299605249474366,
          "normalized_weight": 0.07210958594094548,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06690745363856124
        },
        {
          "state": "NC",
          "poll_id": "cde4fbaa-f2f0-4516-8b3b-c7c9183424aa",
          "question_id": "4ad27b69-8809-4f84-be9c-9ec09bdf6901",
          "pollster": "ActiVote",
          "start_date": "10/8/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-20",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 400,
          "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
          "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
          "opposition_pct": 56.9,
          "republican_pct": 43.1,
          "margin": 13.799999999999997,
          "url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/nc-u-s-senate/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 14,
          "raw_weight": 0.5143606147390174,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5143606147390174,
          "normalized_weight": 0.058877230372896,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.054629707134465584
        },
        {
          "state": "NC",
          "poll_id": "ae31f5c9-9675-4672-a3af-22c60fc5c180",
          "question_id": "73ca45dc-3f77-48b0-96fe-4e6cb2635965",
          "pollster": "SurveyUSA",
          "start_date": "10/7/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-11",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 643,
          "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
          "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
          "opposition_pct": 54.0,
          "republican_pct": 40.0,
          "margin": 14.0,
          "url": "https://www.wral.com/news/nccapitol/wral-nc-us-senate-poll-cooper-whatley-tillis-trump-stein-approval-midterm-october-2026/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 23,
          "raw_weight": 0.4845407890615467,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4845407890615467,
          "normalized_weight": 0.05546384937951867,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.051462574393581824
        },
        {
          "state": "NC",
          "poll_id": "c73d5b8e-548c-474a-9468-60b616a9e286",
          "question_id": "8345076f-1440-4dd2-a40f-85ed51012c54",
          "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
          "start_date": "10/8/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-10",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1091,
          "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
          "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
          "opposition_pct": 48.8,
          "republican_pct": 40.9,
          "margin": 7.899999999999999,
          "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/nc-senate-gen-1011/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 24,
          "raw_weight": 0.3053321063142307,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3053321063142307,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03495039909466237,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03242900616556604
        },
        {
          "state": "NC",
          "poll_id": "103c1a4d-03ff-4028-a49f-42de41c1d63d",
          "question_id": "4c9044a2-98ed-489e-9bd7-16663be9c77c",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "9/29/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-08",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 560,
          "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
          "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
          "opposition_pct": 54.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.0,
          "margin": 11.0,
          "url": "https://eloncdn.blob.core.windows.net/eu3/sites/819/2026/10/Elon-Poll-news-release-10-20-26.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 26,
          "raw_weight": 0.4095572178608488,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.15080162569304478,
          "normalized_weight": 0.017261784440944523,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01601648417655843
        },
        {
          "state": "NC",
          "poll_id": "14dfbcd7-9e7f-4427-acde-296beae6d3bd",
          "question_id": "d505a4b4-4ecf-48b1-bfaa-c74341f586f4",
          "pollster": "Change Research",
          "start_date": "10/1/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-07",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 829,
          "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
          "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 40.0,
          "margin": 10.0,
          "url": "https://docs.google.com/document/d/1nVWsUhnA6dAlqOgHS2j2K6kFoJLJFjQbkN8KAXhyK0s/edit?tab=t.0",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 27,
          "raw_weight": 0.24106439964382262,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.24106439964382262,
          "normalized_weight": 0.027593878274942835,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02560319973132039
        },
        {
          "state": "NC",
          "poll_id": "f882e763-b5b3-425a-96ff-125442124076",
          "question_id": "efa908d6-cb33-4ee1-bc51-9d9ed7d3a4f6",
          "pollster": "East Carolina University Center for Survey Research",
          "start_date": "9/30/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-03",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 810,
          "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
          "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.0,
          "margin": 7.0,
          "url": "https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/ecu-poll-cooper-s-lead-holds-at-7-points",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 31,
          "raw_weight": 0.4176276761451951,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.24917238893633054,
          "normalized_weight": 0.028521974127845916,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02646434086033905
        },
        {
          "state": "NC",
          "poll_id": "c82950e6-d6b9-41a4-a67e-20076d1dcd58",
          "question_id": "20c4780c-d3e0-4595-957f-4087ac2efcb3",
          "pollster": "Big Data Poll",
          "start_date": "9/27/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-29",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 642,
          "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
          "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
          "opposition_pct": 50.8,
          "republican_pct": 38.5,
          "margin": 12.299999999999997,
          "url": "https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/tar-heel-state-poll-roy-cooper-holds-solid-lead-over-michael-whatley-for-us-senate-in-north-carolina/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 35,
          "raw_weight": 0.3258181169769007,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3258181169769007,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03729536784741111,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.034604804099517585
        },
        {
          "state": "NC",
          "poll_id": "799d56a1-25fd-4713-a89d-3f1e78a52295",
          "question_id": "b3af3672-8b79-4552-9395-7099f9183e79",
          "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
          "start_date": "9/21/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-22",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 686,
          "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
          "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
          "opposition_pct": 48.4,
          "republican_pct": 43.3,
          "margin": 5.100000000000001,
          "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/f/roy-cooper-leads-michael-whatley-by-five-in-north-carolina",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 42,
          "raw_weight": 0.26731691553909065,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2469761663704459,
          "normalized_weight": 0.028270579487089154,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.026231082340657758
        },
        {
          "state": "NC",
          "poll_id": "1b31cf9e-f9c1-4902-9af0-2d83656d3e9a",
          "question_id": "1520d6a8-aeab-4656-964f-959930d6d997",
          "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research",
          "start_date": "9/17/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-20",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1115,
          "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
          "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
          "opposition_pct": 53.0,
          "republican_pct": 42.0,
          "margin": 11.0,
          "url": "https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/voter-research/politics/2026-midterm-election-poll-north-carolina/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 44,
          "raw_weight": 0.3190305655625145,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3190305655625145,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03651841833603481,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.033883905307303126
        },
        {
          "state": "NC",
          "poll_id": "8f08ac98-5fe9-4052-a192-4157657541eb",
          "question_id": "9cf6ab50-ec7a-4b46-8274-84effc1c2c0d",
          "pollster": "Opinion Diagnostics",
          "start_date": "9/17/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-20",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 857,
          "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
          "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
          "opposition_pct": 51.7,
          "republican_pct": 43.5,
          "margin": 8.200000000000003,
          "url": "https://www.commoncause.org/north-carolina/press/2026_poll_1/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 44,
          "raw_weight": 0.27969536601045286,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.27969536601045286,
          "normalized_weight": 0.032015842634421914,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.029706154581394202
        },
        {
          "state": "NC",
          "poll_id": "98ed8008-ca69-45b6-ae61-76fc48539cea",
          "question_id": "714bfa7d-29d4-4bea-92ca-8d19fba64784",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "9/15/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-18",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 3742,
          "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
          "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
          "opposition_pct": 53.0,
          "republican_pct": 41.0,
          "margin": 12.0,
          "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_nc_20260915.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 46,
          "raw_weight": 0.3999818958196589,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.14727592997246175,
          "normalized_weight": 0.01685820921916976,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01564202369272372
        },
        {
          "state": "NC",
          "poll_id": "45f311bf-7b92-4f5d-a776-790a211fe758",
          "question_id": "6ba14866-f5ac-4e7a-af91-3a76d9386328",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "start_date": "9/16/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-17",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1200,
          "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
          "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
          "opposition_pct": 48.4,
          "republican_pct": 42.5,
          "margin": 5.899999999999999,
          "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/nc-top-line-tabs/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 47,
          "raw_weight": 0.29976518909025046,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.29976518909025046,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03431317171280027,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03183774966405074
        },
        {
          "state": "NC",
          "poll_id": "0aeb9bc2-03f1-4b0b-b114-194be045b6d2",
          "question_id": "f2953182-6290-48b3-99ec-45a0389481ca",
          "pollster": "High Point University",
          "start_date": "9/6/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-16",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 706,
          "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
          "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 42.0,
          "margin": 8.0,
          "url": "https://www.highpoint.edu/blog/2026/09/hpu-poll-127-north-carolina-likely-voters-weigh-in-on-u-s-senate-race-and-more/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 48,
          "raw_weight": 0.22246319171176523,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.22246319171176523,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0254646569208048,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.023627584739509253
        },
        {
          "state": "NC",
          "poll_id": "ec039041-0d8f-44dd-a4ac-b148ceedb476",
          "question_id": "9397086a-0f74-4db2-8ff8-d8dbfbf0390c",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "9/4/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-15",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 885,
          "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
          "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 37.0,
          "margin": 11.0,
          "url": "https://www.catawba.edu/news/all-news/2026/yougov-39/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 49,
          "raw_weight": 0.24098648487745492,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.08873278776378402,
          "normalized_weight": 0.010156961161282516,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.009424217309522753
        },
        {
          "state": "NC",
          "poll_id": "c34d03cc-ae09-401a-881a-e5d201d48245",
          "question_id": "87e2b7dd-d5ed-4191-be22-b9ae3adc1b2e",
          "pollster": "Harper Polling",
          "start_date": "9/13/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-15",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 608,
          "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
          "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
          "opposition_pct": 49.2,
          "republican_pct": 34.1,
          "margin": 15.100000000000001,
          "url": "https://www.carolinajournal.com/polls/september-2026-roy-coopers-lead-grows-to-15-points-in-nc-senate-race/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 49,
          "raw_weight": 0.1997435854122421,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.1997435854122421,
          "normalized_weight": 0.022864015550241763,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.021214558930791248
        },
        {
          "state": "NC",
          "poll_id": "9aa00d2f-5663-4994-9428-45a42bacb098",
          "question_id": "9146c7ad-f9cd-4225-8627-22bf045d0687",
          "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
          "start_date": "9/8/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-10",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1084,
          "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
          "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
          "opposition_pct": 48.2,
          "republican_pct": 42.3,
          "margin": 5.900000000000006,
          "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/NC-Gen-Sen-Poll-Full-Report-0911.pdf",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 54,
          "raw_weight": 0.11306596365053867,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.11306596365053867,
          "normalized_weight": 0.012942302731642793,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.012008618669683913
        },
        {
          "state": "NC",
          "poll_id": "b89871e7-49f8-4591-9507-da2e48fc92cf",
          "question_id": "7f3db0e5-cb98-42fa-9967-e3af2cf35eb6",
          "pollster": "East Carolina University Center for Survey Research",
          "start_date": "8/31/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-03",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 675,
          "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
          "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
          "opposition_pct": 51.7,
          "republican_pct": 43.6,
          "margin": 8.100000000000001,
          "url": "https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/ecu-poll-cooper-leads-whatley-by-7-points",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 61,
          "raw_weight": 0.1416301769101963,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.08450189377276682,
          "normalized_weight": 0.009672664127150512,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.008974858449176273
        },
        {
          "state": "NC",
          "poll_id": "60831a1c-80bb-4818-aae3-68ff8da9d86d",
          "question_id": "945f46e5-101e-4128-abd8-22a3b2774e9a",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "8/21/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-31",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 565,
          "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
          "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
          "opposition_pct": 49.0,
          "republican_pct": 38.0,
          "margin": 11.0,
          "url": "https://eloncdn.blob.core.windows.net/eu3/sites/819/2026/09/Elon-University-Poll-NR-9-10-26.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 64,
          "raw_weight": 0.1173610131538453,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.043213086730645375,
          "normalized_weight": 0.004946465164046599,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.004589617099025414
        },
        {
          "state": "NC",
          "poll_id": "f6b07086-4cb6-46d6-9b3b-19e75f3c66d7",
          "question_id": "9d3c5cf2-17c3-4478-956c-f9497382fe2d",
          "pollster": "High Point University",
          "start_date": "8/3/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-12",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 660,
          "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
          "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 45.0,
          "margin": 5.0,
          "url": "https://www.highpoint.edu/blog/2026/08/hpu-poll-126-majority-of-north-carolina-voters-say-country-headed-in-wrong-direction/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 83,
          "raw_weight": 0.06775028424455602,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.06775028424455602,
          "normalized_weight": 0.007755160443845167,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.007195687384491604
        },
        {
          "state": "NC",
          "poll_id": "beb4de30-0917-49b6-8d55-5dd12d34da46",
          "question_id": "2ae8b07d-b652-4d44-9495-bf347c9afde7",
          "pollster": "Harper Polling",
          "start_date": "8/9/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-10",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 600,
          "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
          "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
          "opposition_pct": 51.5,
          "republican_pct": 39.0,
          "margin": 12.5,
          "url": "https://www.carolinajournal.com/polls/august-2026-coopers-lead-over-whatley-grows-to-12-5-points/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 85,
          "raw_weight": 0.06047073615774324,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.06047073615774324,
          "normalized_weight": 0.006921893631736471,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.006422534136248401
        },
        {
          "state": "NC",
          "poll_id": "e0b6f1e1-439e-4c29-8868-a65772d11702",
          "question_id": "26b3d4b5-dc08-48b4-98a9-62dbfa3b7273",
          "pollster": "Change Research",
          "start_date": "8/3/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-06",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 915,
          "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
          "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
          "opposition_pct": 50.05,
          "republican_pct": 42.93,
          "margin": 7.119999999999997,
          "url": "https://carolinaforward.org/news/the-august-2026-carolina-forward-poll/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 89,
          "raw_weight": 0.032719837267062214,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.032719837267062214,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0037453361344821426,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.003475139962444311
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.14413333333333334,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.6303666666666666,
            "R": 0.3314,
            "unresolved": 0.038233333333333334
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.5219,
            "R": 0.43093333333333333,
            "unresolved": 0.04716666666666667
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.6303666666666666,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.5219,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 29581,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.6380784963321051,
              "R": 0.32334944728034887,
              "unresolved": 0.03857205638754606
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 419,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.05489260143198091,
              "R": 0.9307875894988067,
              "unresolved": 0.014319809069212411
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.6380784963321051,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.05489260143198091,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 29581,
          "republican": 419
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "state_name": "Ohio",
      "special": true,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "margin": 2.3429717950821645,
      "sigma": 4.453410941888058,
      "win_probability": 0.7005931550659695,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.7003,
      "interval80": [
        -3.3643039695079318,
        8.050247559672261
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -6.38555325937503,
        11.071496849539358
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 34,
        "unique_pollsters": 22,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-10",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 2,
        "partisan_poll_count": 4,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 18.95227534457555,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-and-polls",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.9296268444029487,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.07037315559705126,
        "poll_average": 3.0953883976659755,
        "poll_sigma": 4.61889876591626,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": 2.342971795082164,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 18.95227534457555,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": null
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.9296268444029487,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.07037315559705126,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "b511d518-7c80-408f-8eb2-667b9c308aac",
          "question_id": "9f7a3a17-ae3b-4f5c-81ff-62963bf10109",
          "pollster": "Emerson College",
          "start_date": "10/31/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 930,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 45.8,
          "republican_pct": 48.3,
          "margin": -2.5,
          "url": "https://pollvault.substack.com/p/new-poll-vault-emerson-senate-and",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 1.1654571905443254,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
          "normalized_weight": 0.06270005078389004,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05828765035413234
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "0251982d-6972-49dc-85a5-59a59f153bef",
          "question_id": "1d69fe17-8af5-4539-aa96-27f168ad5871",
          "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
          "start_date": "10/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1801,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 51.4,
          "republican_pct": 43.9,
          "margin": 7.5,
          "url": "https://pollstergraph.com/poll/exclusive-atlas-us-oh-20261101-governor",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 1.621853819118376,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
          "normalized_weight": 0.06270005078389004,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05828765035413234
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "f554f677-d120-41a4-b4e9-afc7946e6da3",
          "question_id": "0dca5afc-824e-4584-baa4-2f028a5b2592",
          "pollster": "Survey 160",
          "start_date": "10/27/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1122,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 46.0,
          "margin": 4.0,
          "url": "https://www.survey160.com/methodological-research-blog/survey-160-pre-election-surveys-in-four-states",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 1.280121759781909,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
          "normalized_weight": 0.06270005078389004,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05828765035413234
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "b2df3f8d-e5f5-404e-878e-e17ffb9c30f7",
          "question_id": "d5cbc358-f8a4-4d0b-bff7-29e655e7779f",
          "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
          "start_date": "10/31/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1092,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 46.6,
          "republican_pct": 45.1,
          "margin": 1.5,
          "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/oh-senate-gen-1102/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 0.6314459395863413,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6314459395863413,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03959169247934476,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03680550014414523
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "2483fb30-fb88-456c-b51f-b03bad5ba693",
          "question_id": "11580672-bf47-4a2c-bfef-ea7a8ed07857",
          "pollster": "Research Co.",
          "start_date": "10/30/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 450,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 45.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": 1.0,
          "url": "https://researchco.ca/2026/11/01/midterms-2026-one/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 0.8107017458981602,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8107017458981602,
          "normalized_weight": 0.05083104063840297,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.047253899906396606
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "624f1dc6-345c-46f6-b412-6fdb12d1797f",
          "question_id": "9a7b6bdd-0c80-421c-9278-f44dd1cba7d1",
          "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
          "start_date": "10/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 717,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 49.3,
          "republican_pct": 43.7,
          "margin": 5.599999999999994,
          "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/11/01/polls/times-siena-poll-crosstabs.html",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 1.0233269913107141,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.750097377928977,
          "normalized_weight": 0.047031143689009625,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.04372141369627567
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "dbd1593d-daad-413f-93bf-083273ec85f9",
          "question_id": "6d483faf-e8cd-4b28-bd73-75222ad82034",
          "pollster": "ActiVote",
          "start_date": "10/18/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-31",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 400,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 50.2,
          "republican_pct": 49.8,
          "margin": 0.4000000000000057,
          "url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/oh-u-s-senate/2026-10-31/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 3,
          "raw_weight": 0.7395202751368115,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6056566134443708,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03797470042056091,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03530230091911337
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "a6c01fbe-a7ca-4d4b-ab7a-00a70463db67",
          "question_id": "84c90a52-46f3-46be-ba7f-deb55121fc78",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "start_date": "10/29/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-30",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1200,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 48.8,
          "republican_pct": 47.0,
          "margin": 1.7999999999999972,
          "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/final-insideradvantage-ohio-survey-brown-49-husted-47-acton-49-ramaswamy-46/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 4,
          "raw_weight": 1.239298577035207,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4323171898449433,
          "normalized_weight": 0.027106309758026578,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.025198753203763104
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "178f4a20-3a0b-4f63-9a03-19811b8277aa",
          "question_id": "c3cd310c-e707-4c50-8ec0-e52f2a356df5",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "10/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-29",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 2084,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 48.0,
          "margin": 2.0,
          "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_oh_20261026_lv.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 5,
          "raw_weight": 1.5479807801590098,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.656050459530536,
          "normalized_weight": 0.041134397129359006,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03823963979978373
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "ef2061ce-8aa7-4866-8db0-835e849dd546",
          "question_id": "2c97932b-20ea-4c93-8abb-70414417da3c",
          "pollster": "Suffolk University",
          "start_date": "10/21/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-26",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 500,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 46.6,
          "republican_pct": 43.8,
          "margin": 2.8000000000000043,
          "url": "https://www.suffolk.edu/academics/research-at-suffolk/political-research-center/polls/other-states#collapse-October-28-2026-Ohio-Governor-and-US-Senate-with-USA-TODAY-Network-Ohio",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 8,
          "raw_weight": 0.7010214122078596,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7010214122078596,
          "normalized_weight": 0.043954078146027115,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0408608909655318
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "a516eb44-5932-41e4-8d9c-00b5db2cd325",
          "question_id": "6f37b46c-a2bd-46d5-8413-123428560f69",
          "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners",
          "start_date": "10/22/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-24",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 469,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 46.0,
          "republican_pct": 42.0,
          "margin": 4.0,
          "url": "https://concordpublicopinionpartners.org/polls/ohio-ge-2026-oct",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 10,
          "raw_weight": 0.3177848460536022,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3177848460536022,
          "normalized_weight": 0.01992512598591154,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.018522931994614137
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "0c92af41-2b09-484c-bb4c-a0232bdc729f",
          "question_id": "22073fe2-060c-45e3-be99-6931cb5ac20a",
          "pollster": "Echelon Insights",
          "start_date": "10/16/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-23",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 508,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 47.0,
          "republican_pct": 47.0,
          "margin": 0.0,
          "url": "https://netchoice.org/netchoice-echelon-insights-poll-voters-rank-ai-regulation-far-behind-cost-of-living-want-one-national-ai-standard/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 11,
          "raw_weight": 0.6399909787711444,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6399909787711444,
          "normalized_weight": 0.04012746687018225,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0373035704004114
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "9d36718e-c579-4afb-8a4e-3f1c33a9b253",
          "question_id": "0286e6b4-62b2-4396-ab6e-83a01bb2b02c",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "start_date": "10/21/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-22",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1200,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 46.7,
          "republican_pct": 44.4,
          "margin": 2.3000000000000043,
          "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-senate-surveys-mi-el-sayed-47-rogers-46-ia-hinson-47-turek-45-oh-brown-47-husted-44/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 12,
          "raw_weight": 0.9516951530106197,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3319895477673223,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0208157615047318,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0193508906814882
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "a1c11dbe-2c91-49d2-b8c6-47bc2ba09d8c",
          "question_id": "2d708401-11af-410e-a373-d2731f3a0f30",
          "pollster": "Verasight",
          "start_date": "10/1/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-20",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 531,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 47.5,
          "republican_pct": 43.6,
          "margin": 3.8999999999999986,
          "url": "https://votehub.com/2026/10/22/votehub-verasight-poll-surveys-ohios-u-s-senate-and-gubernatorial-races/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 14,
          "raw_weight": 0.592631827316053,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.592631827316053,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03715804566886608,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03454311673932863
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "20d3b9e8-26ea-4043-b062-ee2269287827",
          "question_id": "43e0fc8f-b765-4675-834b-8e27c76b5188",
          "pollster": "Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research",
          "start_date": "10/15/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-19",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1592,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 52.0,
          "republican_pct": 47.0,
          "margin": 5.0,
          "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-gender-gap-pocketbook-pain-shape-ohio-senate-race",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 15,
          "raw_weight": 0.9928290613834333,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.9268311800038851,
          "normalized_weight": 0.05811236205433633,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05402281175737434
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "33c1ac04-cae6-451f-8aa6-f8848189ba80",
          "question_id": "a101b63d-1983-4681-9db7-fa3a2dd3fc0a",
          "pollster": "Marist University",
          "start_date": "10/15/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-18",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1176,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": 4.0,
          "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-ohio-october-2026/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 16,
          "raw_weight": 0.8256041142281549,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6556106620769396,
          "normalized_weight": 0.04110682180668389,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03821400503958186
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "c7adfed3-331d-435d-bcb8-8de570669f8b",
          "question_id": "74edcff2-4435-49bb-ad28-48fa282470db",
          "pollster": "ActiVote",
          "start_date": "9/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-18",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 400,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 49.8,
          "republican_pct": 50.2,
          "margin": -0.4000000000000057,
          "url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/oh-u-s-senate/2026-10-18/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 16,
          "raw_weight": 0.4815020974765374,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3943433865556292,
          "normalized_weight": 0.024725350363329134,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.022985349435018967
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "a89e1fc7-6157-4e45-8092-1d95f393dadf",
          "question_id": "38dbc8ac-375a-45fe-afb1-0fa2af23cf4e",
          "pollster": "New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group",
          "start_date": "10/9/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-13",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 959,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 49.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.0,
          "margin": 6.0,
          "url": "https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/survey-research/battleground-district-project/senate-battleground-district-project-october",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 21,
          "raw_weight": 0.6321260422837627,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6321260422837627,
          "normalized_weight": 0.039634334953011344,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03684514173237743
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "9d64351d-7a56-4c00-bff7-581f0e49a5eb",
          "question_id": "26bdb66c-2288-414d-89d6-8a548e1badbd",
          "pollster": "Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov",
          "start_date": "9/29/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-09",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1000,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 42.0,
          "margin": 6.0,
          "url": "https://scholarworks.bgsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1030&context=depo",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 25,
          "raw_weight": 0.5656598217718638,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5656598217718638,
          "normalized_weight": 0.035466899551502055,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.032970981910819215
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "2fd5ea27-05ab-4e8d-b6c3-0efa31a6dff8",
          "question_id": "9716e5ac-26fd-4e40-8d51-ca7c51fb9485",
          "pollster": "co/efficient",
          "start_date": "10/5/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-06",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 925,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 43.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": -1.0,
          "url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/oh/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 28,
          "raw_weight": 0.4927446454877258,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4927446454877258,
          "normalized_weight": 0.030895114295570302,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.028720927610059455
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "81f0f873-c002-4d40-9e8f-24dbdf2fc363",
          "question_id": "006be988-bdf8-452f-9a4d-2e57fe41d983",
          "pollster": "CNN/SSRS",
          "start_date": "9/29/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-05",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 760,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 49.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.0,
          "margin": 6.0,
          "url": "https://edition.cnn.com/2026/10/08/politics/cnn-polls-ohio-iowa-senate-governor-midterms",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 29,
          "raw_weight": 0.4321386209795217,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4321386209795217,
          "normalized_weight": 0.027095113481096222,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02518834484417128
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "b78d8930-8d58-4c99-969c-808e3a8eeaab",
          "question_id": "446a3e14-49e3-40b4-80b5-5b227c87f877",
          "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
          "start_date": "9/22/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 616,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 48.76,
          "republican_pct": 46.09,
          "margin": 2.6699999999999946,
          "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/03/polls/times-siena-ohio-poll-crosstabs.html",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 33,
          "raw_weight": 0.34093186550081833,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.24990262207102307,
          "normalized_weight": 0.01566890709488043,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.014566236657856666
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "c4f95000-fc56-4f85-a6be-18893b0c7b0a",
          "question_id": "076973f0-aa63-4d73-9330-ed394204e8d9",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "9/18/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-30",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 3777,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 49.0,
          "republican_pct": 45.0,
          "margin": 4.0,
          "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_oh_20260921_lv.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 34,
          "raw_weight": 0.594370812946183,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2519005726445951,
          "normalized_weight": 0.015794178697307096,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01468269250231387
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "ee4a1986-796f-4f9a-bc2c-eeabdc1eea57",
          "question_id": "217e39c2-fe21-43b0-b82d-3efc29d43434",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "start_date": "9/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-29",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1200,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 43.8,
          "republican_pct": 42.5,
          "margin": 1.2999999999999972,
          "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-ohio-senate-race-narrows-to-brown-up-by-one/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 35,
          "raw_weight": 0.4454493590701697,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.1553906529870695,
          "normalized_weight": 0.009743001833631092,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.009057356049610615
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "79fe6351-f7cd-40a6-a841-dd4b064707a1",
          "question_id": "5108a9bc-eb1d-44fd-983b-c6b5f19986b5",
          "pollster": "Big Data Poll",
          "start_date": "9/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-27",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 680,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 46.3,
          "republican_pct": 42.6,
          "margin": 3.6999999999999957,
          "url": "https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/buckeye-state-poll-sherrod-brown-leads-jon-husted-for-us-senate-in-ohio/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 37,
          "raw_weight": 0.3139009631979163,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3139009631979163,
          "normalized_weight": 0.019681606333621354,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.018296549588705507
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "3a34730a-dbc1-4dd4-9a8f-32b4d6cfd12f",
          "question_id": "9e01bbfd-04a8-45e2-8137-83ac6989a363",
          "pollster": "Suffolk University",
          "start_date": "9/23/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-27",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 500,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 46.6,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": 2.6000000000000014,
          "url": "https://www.suffolk.edu/academics/research-at-suffolk/political-research-center/polls/other-states#collapse-September-29-2026-Ohio-Governor-and-US-Senate-with-USA-TODAY-Network-Ohio",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 37,
          "raw_weight": 0.26916785531656695,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.26916785531656695,
          "normalized_weight": 0.016876838197739517,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.015689161837263734
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "8736e40d-10b1-47e8-98dc-3e77af028d79",
          "question_id": "7eec8ca8-6f02-4e2f-8c78-3c84197683f1",
          "pollster": "Marist University",
          "start_date": "9/24/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-27",
          "population": "rv",
          "sample_size": 1298,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 51.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.0,
          "margin": 8.0,
          "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-ohio-september-2026/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 37,
          "raw_weight": 0.43368613528164573,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.34438933792306037,
          "normalized_weight": 0.021593228977206155,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02007364531455047
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "ddee0709-2b5a-400f-966a-9279cddd3a10",
          "question_id": "b4f222a2-84b0-4a6d-94ac-83a4c59cfd63",
          "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
          "start_date": "9/21/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-23",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 695,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 47.6,
          "republican_pct": 47.2,
          "margin": 0.3999999999999986,
          "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/polling/f/brown-and-husted-deadlocked-in-ohio-senate-race",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 41,
          "raw_weight": 0.2780939542814941,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2780939542814941,
          "normalized_weight": 0.017436505056142474,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.016209443172757788
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "ab5080b9-cb98-4b3f-953e-eb8d385c4eee",
          "question_id": "ac91045d-e931-497b-af6f-f3b4bc7ba13e",
          "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
          "start_date": "9/14/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-16",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1085,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 45.4,
          "republican_pct": 41.5,
          "margin": 3.8999999999999986,
          "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/oh-senate-0917/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 48,
          "raw_weight": 0.13789251310114828,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.13789251310114828,
          "normalized_weight": 0.008645867574160221,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.008037430590092345
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "314d0d9f-dfec-48d8-b989-2b20e36748f7",
          "question_id": "f6c2367f-cb72-48df-81ee-93281bece8bf",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "9/1/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-10",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1000,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 45.0,
          "margin": 3.0,
          "url": "https://drive.google.com/file/d/16DCSUQaBOGTTk0u3flp6q0uwC6AO8euZ/view",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 54,
          "raw_weight": 0.2171937096551029,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.09204896782486885,
          "normalized_weight": 0.005771474957223938,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.005365318052034733
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "5506608a-6ab8-4d78-a80e-01a18da64633",
          "question_id": "3930b893-745e-4f00-9b5b-0e3424f9b188",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "start_date": "9/8/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-09",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1200,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 47.3,
          "republican_pct": 41.9,
          "margin": 5.399999999999999,
          "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/top-line-tabs-ohio/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 55,
          "raw_weight": 0.23019882600123304,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.08030260940066497,
          "normalized_weight": 0.005034977687500579,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.00468065041927042
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "dcf6267c-62b2-4941-9e1a-2facc483e35b",
          "question_id": "f4af9b0a-37ff-4cce-ba99-07b4452ee702",
          "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners",
          "start_date": "8/29/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-31",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 504,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 40.0,
          "margin": 10.0,
          "url": "https://concordpublicopinionpartners.org/polls/ohio-ge-2026",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 64,
          "raw_weight": 0.055422345154512276,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.055422345154512276,
          "normalized_weight": 0.003474983855750202,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.003230438276172252
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "0f9efd9e-18ce-4bdb-b809-80d16d258bd6",
          "question_id": "587a0ce5-3ec1-48ec-a4c5-fa0434f971ef",
          "pollster": "Abacus Data",
          "start_date": "8/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-28",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 306,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 46.0,
          "republican_pct": 41.0,
          "margin": 5.0,
          "url": "https://abacusdata.ca/the-trade-war-next-door-what-american-voters-think-about-tariffs-canada-and-the-battle-for-the-u-s-senate/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 67,
          "raw_weight": 0.07822688811795105,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.07822688811795105,
          "normalized_weight": 0.004904829857661215,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.00455966150291096
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "poll_id": "5bdcb862-c70f-4062-8be0-2f6fa098ad51",
          "question_id": "fbbc0c10-6d03-4032-8e43-0e794c2993f3",
          "pollster": "Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research",
          "start_date": "8/6/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-10",
          "population": "rv",
          "sample_size": 1008,
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "opposition_pct": 53.0,
          "republican_pct": 45.0,
          "margin": 8.0,
          "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-economic-anxiety-candidate-concerns-define-ohio-senate-race",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 85,
          "raw_weight": 0.07837903217603406,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.07316881999611488,
          "normalized_weight": 0.004587688729553712,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.004264838596757991
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.15153333333333333,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.6680333333333334,
            "R": 0.29473333333333335,
            "unresolved": 0.037233333333333334
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.5512,
            "R": 0.4008,
            "unresolved": 0.048
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.6680333333333334,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.5512,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 21009,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.7883764101099529,
              "R": 0.17711456994621352,
              "unresolved": 0.034509019943833596
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 8991,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.2597041485930375,
              "R": 0.69336002669336,
              "unresolved": 0.04693582471360249
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.7883764101099529,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.2597041485930375,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 21009,
          "republican": 8991
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "OK",
      "state_name": "Oklahoma",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Jim Priest",
      "republican_name": "Kevin Hern",
      "margin": -22.390980606680866,
      "sigma": 6.342767327213928,
      "win_probability": 0.00020765457290677913,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.00016666666666666666,
      "interval80": [
        -30.51956400475702,
        -14.262397208604714
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -34.822576130337545,
        -9.959385083024186
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 1,
        "unique_pollsters": 1,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-08-06",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-06",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 89,
        "partisan_poll_count": 0,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 1.0,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-and-polls",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.857249038294748,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.14275096170525203,
        "poll_average": -21.0,
        "poll_sigma": 6.850547423381579,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": -22.390980606680863,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 1.0,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": null
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.857249038294748,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.14275096170525203,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "OK",
          "poll_id": "3363b2d9-eeaf-4b08-952d-6a4d61607837",
          "question_id": "7677461d-f14d-45a4-9d73-34fc0bb5512f",
          "pollster": "Cole Hargrave",
          "start_date": "8/3/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-06",
          "population": "rv",
          "sample_size": 500,
          "opposition_name": "Jim Priest",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "8265bc33-f0b4-4821-b318-65ce7ebf5c65",
          "republican_name": "Kevin Hern",
          "opposition_pct": 27.0,
          "republican_pct": 48.0,
          "margin": -21.0,
          "url": "https://chs-inc.com/general-election-rep/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 89,
          "raw_weight": 0.048374399379969055,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.048374399379969055,
          "normalized_weight": 1.0,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.857249038294748
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.12343333333333334,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.7282,
            "R": 0.24496666666666667,
            "unresolved": 0.026833333333333334
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.6299333333333333,
            "R": 0.3318333333333333,
            "unresolved": 0.038233333333333334
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.7282,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.6299333333333333,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 5,
            "reliable_sample": false,
            "control": {
              "D": 1.0,
              "R": 0.0,
              "unresolved": 0.0
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 29995,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.6298716452742124,
              "R": 0.331888648108018,
              "unresolved": 0.038239706617769625
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 1.0,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.6298716452742124,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 5,
          "republican": 29995
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "OR",
      "state_name": "Oregon",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Democratic candidate",
      "republican_name": "Republican candidate",
      "margin": 15.184191951951544,
      "sigma": 16.787624984224102,
      "win_probability": 0.8171314412641266,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.8178666666666666,
      "interval80": [
        -6.330015128356511,
        36.6983990322596
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -17.718948403092487,
        48.08733230699558
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 0,
        "unique_pollsters": 0,
        "latest_poll_date": null,
        "oldest_poll_date": null,
        "latest_poll_age_days": null,
        "partisan_poll_count": 0,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 0,
        "has_polls": false,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-only",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.0,
        "prior_weight_share": 1.0,
        "poll_sigma": null,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.0,
      "prior_weight_share": 1.0,
      "polls": [],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.14273333333333332,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.6521666666666667,
            "R": 0.3122333333333333,
            "unresolved": 0.0356
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.5426,
            "R": 0.4108,
            "unresolved": 0.0466
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.6521666666666667,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.5426,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 24536,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.6729703293120313,
              "R": 0.29234594065862407,
              "unresolved": 0.034683730029344634
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 5464,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.43667642752562225,
              "R": 0.5091508052708639,
              "unresolved": 0.05417276720351391
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.6729703293120313,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.43667642752562225,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 24536,
          "republican": 5464
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "RI",
      "state_name": "Rhode Island",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Jack Reed",
      "republican_name": "Raymond McKay",
      "margin": 25.465927884503333,
      "sigma": 5.08880260514454,
      "win_probability": 0.9999997196825069,
      "simulation_win_probability": 1.0,
      "interval80": [
        18.944364939132903,
        31.987490829873764
      ],
      "interval95": [
        15.492058053986433,
        35.439797715020234
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 4,
        "unique_pollsters": 3,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-11",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-24",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 23,
        "partisan_poll_count": 0,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 2.905831713272672,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-and-polls",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.9081132921473439,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.09188670785265607,
        "poll_average": 26.432322658175426,
        "poll_sigma": 5.340053260814147,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": 25.465927884503337,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 2.905831713272672,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": null
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.9081132921473439,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.09188670785265607,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "RI",
          "poll_id": "15c62ccc-5850-4c8a-b4b9-a4be7a36102a",
          "question_id": "8c3ce7a9-efec-46e8-abf4-87a362979cd5",
          "pollster": "Emerson College",
          "start_date": "10/8/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-11",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "opposition_name": "Jack Reed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be0e7611-cafb-4f43-9d4b-281b31770c52",
          "republican_name": "Raymond McKay",
          "opposition_pct": 59.13,
          "republican_pct": 25.44,
          "margin": 33.69,
          "url": "https://www.wpri.com/news/elections/5p-wpri-emerson-poll-story/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 23,
          "raw_weight": 0.5404678305987736,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5404678305987736,
          "normalized_weight": 0.39143845513888703,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.3554704641692451
        },
        {
          "state": "RI",
          "poll_id": "af05ce70-5668-4aa8-9677-13178bfb45bb",
          "question_id": "d10e6166-d130-442f-b105-2ef1ad15228a",
          "pollster": "Embold Research",
          "start_date": "10/5/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-08",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 815,
          "opposition_name": "Jack Reed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be0e7611-cafb-4f43-9d4b-281b31770c52",
          "republican_name": "Raymond McKay",
          "opposition_pct": 55.0,
          "republican_pct": 32.0,
          "margin": 23.0,
          "url": "https://salve.edu/news/news-listing/pell-center-survey-foulkes-leads-governors-race-11-points-lieutenant-governor-contest-deadlocked",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 26,
          "raw_weight": 0.49408238989432257,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.49408238989432257,
          "normalized_weight": 0.35784340244135476,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.32496235026422554
        },
        {
          "state": "RI",
          "poll_id": "f6bc7bf9-7761-4a66-8398-608a7a6dfbd1",
          "question_id": "a8592b74-6c72-4233-bd03-74e8a738708f",
          "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
          "start_date": "9/17/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-21",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 595,
          "opposition_name": "Jack Reed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be0e7611-cafb-4f43-9d4b-281b31770c52",
          "republican_name": "Raymond McKay",
          "opposition_pct": 53.0,
          "republican_pct": 33.0,
          "margin": 20.0,
          "url": "https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1009/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 43,
          "raw_weight": 0.2408729905555119,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2408729905555119,
          "normalized_weight": 0.1744543263625416,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.15842429264243485
        },
        {
          "state": "RI",
          "poll_id": "69b3875a-e038-4992-ac06-58eed14e4864",
          "question_id": "dc39f705-3678-4fc2-97fa-fa8522c6fff5",
          "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
          "start_date": "8/20/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-24",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 722,
          "opposition_name": "Jack Reed",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be0e7611-cafb-4f43-9d4b-281b31770c52",
          "republican_name": "Raymond McKay",
          "opposition_pct": 51.0,
          "republican_pct": 31.0,
          "margin": 20.0,
          "url": "https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/990/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 71,
          "raw_weight": 0.10529915667841867,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.10529915667841867,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0762638160572167,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06925618507143853
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.14406666666666668,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.6299333333333333,
            "R": 0.3318333333333333,
            "unresolved": 0.038233333333333334
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.5215,
            "R": 0.4313666666666667,
            "unresolved": 0.04713333333333333
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.6299333333333333,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.5215,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 30000,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.6299333333333333,
              "R": 0.3318333333333333,
              "unresolved": 0.038233333333333334
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 0,
            "reliable_sample": false,
            "control": null
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.6299333333333333,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": null,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 30000,
          "republican": 0
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "SC",
      "state_name": "South Carolina",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Annie Andrews",
      "republican_name": "Darline Graham",
      "margin": -2.5102754202792172,
      "sigma": 4.604108719879581,
      "win_probability": 0.2927993714778352,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.2937,
      "interval80": [
        -8.410678158178442,
        3.3901273176200077
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -11.534162692150009,
        6.513611851591573
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 12,
        "unique_pollsters": 8,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-24",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 2,
        "partisan_poll_count": 6,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 6.579158748979809,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-and-polls",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.9247835862724947,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.07521641372750532,
        "poll_average": -1.3064922608148783,
        "poll_sigma": 4.7876843946450425,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": -2.5102754202792177,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 6.579158748979809,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": null
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.9247835862724947,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.07521641372750532,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "SC",
          "poll_id": "efae558e-7c8c-48ab-b133-84962aaa054f",
          "question_id": "5c6fa034-87e0-491a-b307-dff416f657bb",
          "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
          "start_date": "10/31/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1091,
          "opposition_name": "Annie Andrews",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "3b708929-ecc4-4ed8-8369-cd9512a89493",
          "republican_name": "Darline Graham",
          "opposition_pct": 45.5,
          "republican_pct": 47.5,
          "margin": -2.0,
          "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/sc-senate-general-1102/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 0.6311567497660048,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5193639967113708,
          "normalized_weight": 0.09955964130859571,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.09207112213736635
        },
        {
          "state": "SC",
          "poll_id": "799adc95-7605-40d1-b686-80b11548e471",
          "question_id": "910b183b-14f5-4e3f-93ec-553d53b4d8e9",
          "pollster": "Patinkin Research Strategies",
          "start_date": "10/27/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-29",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 500,
          "opposition_name": "Annie Andrews",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "3b708929-ecc4-4ed8-8369-cd9512a89493",
          "republican_name": "Darline Graham",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.0,
          "margin": 5.0,
          "url": "https://static1.squarespace.com/static/54512d3ce4b07de69d8320c7/t/6ae4f0f24aec54388059c463/1793388786248/PRS%2BProjectVOTE.SCSW+Poll+Release.103026.pdf",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 5,
          "raw_weight": 0.38699519503975244,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.38699519503975244,
          "normalized_weight": 0.07418516310386411,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06860522118340141
        },
        {
          "state": "SC",
          "poll_id": "f563358e-6428-4c39-b20d-84027b8795a4",
          "question_id": "4377654d-c6b1-49d1-9540-cf833100a098",
          "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
          "start_date": "10/19/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-26",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 707,
          "opposition_name": "Annie Andrews",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "3b708929-ecc4-4ed8-8369-cd9512a89493",
          "republican_name": "Darline Graham",
          "opposition_pct": 47.76,
          "republican_pct": 48.47,
          "margin": -0.7100000000000009,
          "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/28/polls/times-siena-sc-poll-toplines.html",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 8,
          "raw_weight": 0.8335967027338202,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8335967027338202,
          "normalized_weight": 0.15979657667015604,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.14777725124709454
        },
        {
          "state": "SC",
          "poll_id": "3e68a4bb-c6e6-4e11-b1f3-108da5969af6",
          "question_id": "f3d4f4b1-d2ea-4ac6-9f9e-b956c489e915",
          "pollster": "Targoz Market Research",
          "start_date": "10/16/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-25",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 895,
          "opposition_name": "Annie Andrews",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "3b708929-ecc4-4ed8-8369-cd9512a89493",
          "republican_name": "Darline Graham",
          "opposition_pct": 46.0,
          "republican_pct": 47.0,
          "margin": -1.0,
          "url": "https://www.foxcarolina.com/2026/10/26/new-poll-shows-neck-and-neck-senate-race-double-digit-lead-governor-sc-midterms/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 9,
          "raw_weight": 0.9074506941325894,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.9074506941325894,
          "normalized_weight": 0.173954040297647,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.16086984123304804
        },
        {
          "state": "SC",
          "poll_id": "379b9273-5e8d-461f-81ff-893c7e2cb8e6",
          "question_id": "b07ee80b-8279-4a96-ad53-2bfd1255ac26",
          "pollster": "East Carolina University Center for Survey Research",
          "start_date": "10/19/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-24",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 955,
          "opposition_name": "Annie Andrews",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "3b708929-ecc4-4ed8-8369-cd9512a89493",
          "republican_name": "Darline Graham",
          "opposition_pct": 47.3,
          "republican_pct": 51.2,
          "margin": -3.9000000000000057,
          "url": "https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/ecu-poll-finds-graham-leading-andrews-by-four-points",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 10,
          "raw_weight": 0.9069397640654493,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.9069397640654493,
          "normalized_weight": 0.17385609740106514,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.16077926524989714
        },
        {
          "state": "SC",
          "poll_id": "29e89f16-9a50-475b-b548-6cfb19442c96",
          "question_id": "2a996f3f-1f1b-4a29-97e3-f1545b612e9b",
          "pollster": "Impact Research",
          "start_date": "10/15/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-21",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "opposition_name": "Annie Andrews",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "3b708929-ecc4-4ed8-8369-cd9512a89493",
          "republican_name": "Darline Graham",
          "opposition_pct": 45.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": 1.0,
          "url": "https://freshstartpac.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/SC-Senate-Track-Public-Memo.pdf",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 13,
          "raw_weight": 0.3759131087271665,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3759131087271665,
          "normalized_weight": 0.07206077915499923,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06664062577655042
        },
        {
          "state": "SC",
          "poll_id": "040d2334-8d1a-41e0-9814-6b64eff8c4d1",
          "question_id": "4300ffdc-464d-4ed4-ab7c-94d6cb922344",
          "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
          "start_date": "10/16/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-18",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1095,
          "opposition_name": "Annie Andrews",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "3b708929-ecc4-4ed8-8369-cd9512a89493",
          "republican_name": "Darline Graham",
          "opposition_pct": 45.6,
          "republican_pct": 48.6,
          "margin": -3.0,
          "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/sc-senate-gen-1018/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 16,
          "raw_weight": 0.39833205017325357,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3277780451098935,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0628335133097593,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05810740177669973
        },
        {
          "state": "SC",
          "poll_id": "c4cd7d22-a9be-4bb2-b532-b1f9f3bff5ae",
          "question_id": "6ea69d6a-177b-49b3-933d-8f762cc81a3f",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "start_date": "9/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-29",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1200,
          "opposition_name": "Annie Andrews",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "3b708929-ecc4-4ed8-8369-cd9512a89493",
          "republican_name": "Darline Graham",
          "opposition_pct": 45.0,
          "republican_pct": 46.0,
          "margin": -1.0,
          "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-south-carolina-senate-graham-leads-by-one-point/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 35,
          "raw_weight": 0.4454493590701697,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4454493590701697,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0853905520809833,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.07896778098723997
        },
        {
          "state": "SC",
          "poll_id": "b3c26b29-cc2f-472a-b43e-e75efff555f4",
          "question_id": "6f86a5e2-f626-4adc-bcbb-f9cc23de4137",
          "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
          "start_date": "9/23/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-25",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1087,
          "opposition_name": "Annie Andrews",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "3b708929-ecc4-4ed8-8369-cd9512a89493",
          "republican_name": "Darline Graham",
          "opposition_pct": 42.3,
          "republican_pct": 43.4,
          "margin": -1.1000000000000014,
          "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/sc-sen-gen-0926/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 39,
          "raw_weight": 0.18576053147860883,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.15285795817873568,
          "normalized_weight": 0.029302153371822393,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.027098150480700585
        },
        {
          "state": "SC",
          "poll_id": "294639ed-4101-4a83-934e-ebd6036794d7",
          "question_id": "8cd0f698-49d6-411c-aafc-c417a1e211f0",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "start_date": "9/8/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-09",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1200,
          "opposition_name": "Annie Andrews",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "3b708929-ecc4-4ed8-8369-cd9512a89493",
          "republican_name": "Darline Graham",
          "opposition_pct": 43.2,
          "republican_pct": 45.1,
          "margin": -1.8999999999999986,
          "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/top-line-tabs-sc/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 55,
          "raw_weight": 0.23019882600123304,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.23019882600123304,
          "normalized_weight": 0.044128034849283626,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.04080888232307814
        },
        {
          "state": "SC",
          "poll_id": "0af6e60b-c4a3-497e-96ee-1e29515f6fca",
          "question_id": "497aaf71-3596-495d-8ec5-3f04456503c6",
          "pollster": "Abacus Data",
          "start_date": "8/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-28",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 306,
          "opposition_name": "Annie Andrews",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "3b708929-ecc4-4ed8-8369-cd9512a89493",
          "republican_name": "Darline Graham",
          "opposition_pct": 38.0,
          "republican_pct": 51.0,
          "margin": -13.0,
          "url": "https://abacusdata.ca/the-trade-war-next-door-what-american-voters-think-about-tariffs-canada-and-the-battle-for-the-u-s-senate/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 67,
          "raw_weight": 0.07822688811795105,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.07822688811795105,
          "normalized_weight": 0.014995727410883775,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.013867802573801848
        },
        {
          "state": "SC",
          "poll_id": "6ee4c6c7-2c69-480a-959d-384e29ee003e",
          "question_id": "49be2463-c286-4806-8596-2c12ca24f91c",
          "pollster": "Impact Research",
          "start_date": "8/18/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-24",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 700,
          "opposition_name": "Annie Andrews",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "3b708929-ecc4-4ed8-8369-cd9512a89493",
          "republican_name": "Darline Graham",
          "opposition_pct": 41.0,
          "republican_pct": 41.0,
          "margin": 0.0,
          "url": "https://drannieandrews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/IMPACT-SC-SEN-POLL-MEMO-AUG-2026.pdf",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 71,
          "raw_weight": 0.05184123255353577,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.05184123255353577,
          "normalized_weight": 0.009937721040940449,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.009190241303616538
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.13293333333333332,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.7183666666666667,
            "R": 0.25276666666666664,
            "unresolved": 0.028866666666666665
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.6124666666666667,
            "R": 0.34613333333333335,
            "unresolved": 0.0414
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.7183666666666667,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.6124666666666667,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 8811,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.9278175008512087,
              "R": 0.05856315968675519,
              "unresolved": 0.013619339462036091
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 21189,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.5060644674123366,
              "R": 0.4454669875878994,
              "unresolved": 0.04846854499976403
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.9278175008512087,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.5060644674123366,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 8811,
          "republican": 21189
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "SD",
      "state_name": "South Dakota",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_name": "Brian Bengs",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rounds",
      "margin": -11.298056340325573,
      "sigma": 7.0,
      "win_probability": 0.0532628402507454,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.05143333333333333,
      "interval80": [
        -20.26891729913778,
        -2.3271953815133664
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -25.017804232105952,
        2.4216915514548063
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 10,
        "unique_pollsters": 9,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-26",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-17",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 8,
        "partisan_poll_count": 7,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 5.543235285458672,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "polls-only-independent",
        "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
        "poll_average": -11.298056340325573,
        "poll_sigma": 4.908808513604758,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": -11.298056340325573,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 5.543235285458672,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": "Independent challengers use the selected polling average without the historical Democratic prior, with sigma at least 7pp"
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "SD",
          "poll_id": "61f15781-75a4-47c4-a04a-da825f9d1778",
          "question_id": "03525770-da88-4df8-8ca8-96f2779e06ed",
          "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners",
          "start_date": "10/22/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-26",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 448,
          "opposition_name": "Brian Bengs",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "IND",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "60bae334-3494-425a-928b-354da42b0e1f",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rounds",
          "opposition_pct": 43.0,
          "republican_pct": 41.0,
          "margin": 2.0,
          "url": "https://concordpublicopinionpartners.org/polls/south-dakota-ge-2026-oct26",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 8,
          "raw_weight": 0.33178388834262884,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.33178388834262884,
          "normalized_weight": 0.11340267847108551,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.11340267847108551
        },
        {
          "state": "SD",
          "poll_id": "5f328a35-fe31-463a-9366-ee4844b660b5",
          "question_id": "3657d50a-c9ca-4920-8cbd-6be1cc3f8687",
          "pollster": "Emerson College",
          "start_date": "10/19/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-21",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 803,
          "opposition_name": "Brian Bengs",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "IND",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "60bae334-3494-425a-928b-354da42b0e1f",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rounds",
          "opposition_pct": 46.0,
          "republican_pct": 54.0,
          "margin": -8.0,
          "url": "https://www.keloland.com/keloland-com-original/keloland-poll-rounds-leads-bengs-at-8-trump-approval-down/amp/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 13,
          "raw_weight": 0.7532345725146874,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7532345725146874,
          "normalized_weight": 0.2574531827536416,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.2574531827536416
        },
        {
          "state": "SD",
          "poll_id": "52e9ded5-bc58-4220-9446-16750d1dd419",
          "question_id": "b60f63de-e62c-461c-9b64-bff03d8057ae",
          "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
          "start_date": "10/17/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-19",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 657,
          "opposition_name": "Brian Bengs",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "IND",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "60bae334-3494-425a-928b-354da42b0e1f",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rounds",
          "opposition_pct": 37.3,
          "republican_pct": 59.4,
          "margin": -22.1,
          "url": "https://www.semafor.com/article/10/21/2026/poll-shows-big-lead-for-south-dakota-republican-rounds",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 15,
          "raw_weight": 0.6378016436567403,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6378016436567403,
          "normalized_weight": 0.21799857456984945,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.21799857456984945
        },
        {
          "state": "SD",
          "poll_id": "b6b76d24-695b-4c48-8834-3042ae36e0d4",
          "question_id": "853faef8-93c5-4ad8-b0d8-154ee82fe785",
          "pollster": "Public Opinion Strategies",
          "start_date": "10/12/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-16",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 500,
          "opposition_name": "Brian Bengs",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "IND",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "60bae334-3494-425a-928b-354da42b0e1f",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rounds",
          "opposition_pct": 37.0,
          "republican_pct": 54.0,
          "margin": -17.0,
          "url": "https://x.com/andrewjfhoward/status/2112507944633811183",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 18,
          "raw_weight": 0.2519728050600231,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2519728050600231,
          "normalized_weight": 0.08612350388205384,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.08612350388205384
        },
        {
          "state": "SD",
          "poll_id": "06cde9f9-1d19-466c-b7aa-42e4ec649862",
          "question_id": "3e7e4333-aa9d-4bbd-98ef-cadffb91157c",
          "pollster": "Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.",
          "start_date": "10/12/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-14",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 500,
          "opposition_name": "Brian Bengs",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "IND",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "60bae334-3494-425a-928b-354da42b0e1f",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rounds",
          "opposition_pct": 37.4,
          "republican_pct": 56.4,
          "margin": -19.0,
          "url": "https://www.sdnewswatch.org/south-dakota-poll-2026-governor-ahlers-rhoden/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 20,
          "raw_weight": 0.4717524268649823,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4717524268649823,
          "normalized_weight": 0.16124348005252503,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.16124348005252503
        },
        {
          "state": "SD",
          "poll_id": "63c68bf6-de25-4b0a-959c-db140e6a0080",
          "question_id": "7ee0eeb5-9c3a-4345-8a89-47bbe478a7f2",
          "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners",
          "start_date": "10/6/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-08",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 400,
          "opposition_name": "Brian Bengs",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "IND",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "60bae334-3494-425a-928b-354da42b0e1f",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rounds",
          "opposition_pct": 43.0,
          "republican_pct": 42.0,
          "margin": 1.0,
          "url": "https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28817212-sd-sen-gov-concord-public-opinion-partners-oct-2026/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 26,
          "raw_weight": 0.17306951261493517,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.17306951261493517,
          "normalized_weight": 0.059154609315901725,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.059154609315901725
        },
        {
          "state": "SD",
          "poll_id": "fd683a6e-0873-4947-8ed2-28011b747732",
          "question_id": "fe9c2a92-0833-4850-80b6-6ce7233967b4",
          "pollster": "Zenith Research",
          "start_date": "9/24/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-27",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 500,
          "opposition_name": "Brian Bengs",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "IND",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "60bae334-3494-425a-928b-354da42b0e1f",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rounds",
          "opposition_pct": 47.0,
          "republican_pct": 53.0,
          "margin": -6.0,
          "url": "https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Qu-DSLvU_Uv08q06PQL20XY6LD9JbMM3/view",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 37,
          "raw_weight": 0.13458392765828348,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.13458392765828348,
          "normalized_weight": 0.046000358702912976,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.046000358702912976
        },
        {
          "state": "SD",
          "poll_id": "bcc17e73-d95e-4457-ab14-83e4162a8d65",
          "question_id": "e7526230-79b8-4067-807a-820ba07f87c4",
          "pollster": "Public Policy Polling",
          "start_date": "9/8/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-09",
          "population": "rv",
          "sample_size": 629,
          "opposition_name": "Brian Bengs",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "IND",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "60bae334-3494-425a-928b-354da42b0e1f",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rounds",
          "opposition_pct": 42.0,
          "republican_pct": 45.0,
          "margin": -3.0,
          "url": "https://x.com/NenoNicolosio/status/2098189872330678723",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 55,
          "raw_weight": 0.0833312331160582,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.0833312331160582,
          "normalized_weight": 0.028482350613422632,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.028482350613422632
        },
        {
          "state": "SD",
          "poll_id": "cabb19b7-c3b2-4065-8255-bcce2adeb67d",
          "question_id": "270b4a36-c529-4b51-b3b6-a9672795680b",
          "pollster": "Lake Research Partners",
          "start_date": "8/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-30",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 500,
          "opposition_name": "Brian Bengs",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "IND",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "60bae334-3494-425a-928b-354da42b0e1f",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rounds",
          "opposition_pct": 51.0,
          "republican_pct": 41.0,
          "margin": 10.0,
          "url": "https://x.com/SoDakDems/status/2105413020264357970",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 65,
          "raw_weight": 0.0534096670856928,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.0534096670856928,
          "normalized_weight": 0.01825525444897964,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01825525444897964
        },
        {
          "state": "SD",
          "poll_id": "f0a5041f-3f24-4d32-971c-fc77204d0be6",
          "question_id": "8ec1390d-3a87-4699-887b-eea6005cda79",
          "pollster": "Impact Research",
          "start_date": "8/13/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-17",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 500,
          "opposition_name": "Brian Bengs",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_source_party": "IND",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "60bae334-3494-425a-928b-354da42b0e1f",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rounds",
          "opposition_pct": 44.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": 0.0,
          "url": "https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28585312-sd-sen-impact-research-for-brian-bengs/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 78,
          "raw_weight": 0.03477506647471841,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.03477506647471841,
          "normalized_weight": 0.011886007189627689,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.011886007189627689
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.0882,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.6299333333333333,
            "R": 0.24623333333333333,
            "unresolved": 0.12383333333333334
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.6299333333333333,
            "R": 0.33443333333333336,
            "unresolved": 0.035633333333333336
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.6299333333333333,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.6299333333333333,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 1543,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.8703823720025924,
              "R": 0.056383668178872325,
              "unresolved": 0.07323395981853532
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 28457,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.6168956671469235,
              "R": 0.3467688090803669,
              "unresolved": 0.0363355237727097
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.8703823720025924,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.6168956671469235,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 1543,
          "republican": 28457
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "TN",
      "state_name": "Tennessee",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Marquita Bradshaw",
      "republican_name": "Bill Hagerty",
      "margin": -21.17618240311343,
      "sigma": 5.675637844090754,
      "win_probability": 9.53354284833896e-05,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.0002,
      "interval80": [
        -28.44980496767212,
        -13.90255983855474
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -32.300228166823864,
        -10.052136639402994
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 2,
        "unique_pollsters": 1,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-26",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 1,
        "partisan_poll_count": 0,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 1.0,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-and-polls",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.8856987884870811,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.11430121151291894,
        "poll_average": -20.444535739339706,
        "poll_sigma": 6.0307545133258404,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": -21.17618240311343,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 1.0,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": null
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.8856987884870811,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.11430121151291894,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "TN",
          "poll_id": "002d090f-ed00-4351-ae62-3e25da1fcd33",
          "question_id": "1c964902-35f4-49bd-9eb6-858644c0eaf9",
          "pollster": "Targoz Market Research",
          "start_date": "10/24/25",
          "end_date": "2026-11-02",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 716,
          "opposition_name": "Marquita Bradshaw",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "9f23c76a-6bfa-4b49-9f44-fc7db39ae5b0",
          "republican_name": "Bill Hagerty",
          "opposition_pct": 37.0,
          "republican_pct": 57.0,
          "margin": -20.0,
          "url": "https://www.targoz.com/market-matters-blog/2026/11/2/tennessee-poll-blackburn-leads-green-by-19-points-hagerty-leads-bradshaw-by-20-points",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 1,
          "raw_weight": 1.056929754522331,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.9110928521320588,
          "normalized_weight": 0.9110928521320588,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.8069538353326038
        },
        {
          "state": "TN",
          "poll_id": "83074200-303b-4eb1-ae96-fa16b4cc5da1",
          "question_id": "7e58356a-9faa-46a9-9cfe-f834d3aecec1",
          "pollster": "Targoz Market Research",
          "start_date": "8/15/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-26",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 607,
          "opposition_name": "Marquita Bradshaw",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "9f23c76a-6bfa-4b49-9f44-fc7db39ae5b0",
          "republican_name": "Bill Hagerty",
          "opposition_pct": 33.0,
          "republican_pct": 58.0,
          "margin": -25.0,
          "url": "https://tennsight.com/polls/august-2026/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 69,
          "raw_weight": 0.10313834616466007,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.08890714786794125,
          "normalized_weight": 0.08890714786794125,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.07874495315447734
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.12343333333333334,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.7282,
            "R": 0.24496666666666667,
            "unresolved": 0.026833333333333334
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.6299333333333333,
            "R": 0.3318333333333333,
            "unresolved": 0.038233333333333334
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.7282,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.6299333333333333,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 6,
            "reliable_sample": false,
            "control": {
              "D": 1.0,
              "R": 0.0,
              "unresolved": 0.0
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 29994,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.6298593051943722,
              "R": 0.33189971327598855,
              "unresolved": 0.03824098152963926
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 1.0,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.6298593051943722,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 6,
          "republican": 29994
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "state_name": "Texas",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "margin": 2.1694300086357616,
      "sigma": 4.4207719330975,
      "win_probability": 0.6881932553650454,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.6914666666666667,
      "interval80": [
        -3.496017183140971,
        7.834877200412494
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -6.495123764100852,
        10.833983781372375
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 53,
        "unique_pollsters": 31,
        "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
        "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-10",
        "latest_poll_age_days": 1,
        "partisan_poll_count": 7,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 25.41945507505443,
        "has_polls": true,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-and-polls",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.9306545928220696,
        "prior_weight_share": 0.06934540717793036,
        "poll_average": 3.111492776270913,
        "poll_sigma": 4.582514499954484,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102,
        "reconstructed_margin": 2.169430008635761,
        "matches_published_margin": true,
        "effective_polls_reconstructed": 25.41945507505443,
        "weight_formula": "sqrt(min(sample_size,2000)/600) \u00d7 2^(\u2212age_days/21) \u00d7 (0.5 if partisan else 1), then cap each pollster's combined weight at 1",
        "independent_note": null
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.9306545928220696,
      "prior_weight_share": 0.06934540717793036,
      "polls": [
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "b112cbf3-ab0d-490b-b374-6f83fd7f9545",
          "question_id": "1dad712d-090f-46bb-b637-ce5f5c19a8d7",
          "pollster": "Research Co.",
          "start_date": "10/31/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-02",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 450,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 49.0,
          "republican_pct": 46.0,
          "margin": 3.0,
          "url": "https://researchco.ca/2026/11/02/midterms-2026-two/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 1,
          "raw_weight": 0.8379070991704293,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8379070991704293,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03763215957464629,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03502254214595759
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "ad45957d-ad76-4dd4-8ade-9fe70e9df712",
          "question_id": "5eb68805-10ce-4d7f-a23c-e601de9d009b",
          "pollster": "Emerson College",
          "start_date": "10/31/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 500,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 49.8,
          "republican_pct": 48.4,
          "margin": 1.3999999999999986,
          "url": "https://pollvault.substack.com/p/new-poll-vault-emerson-senate-and",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 0.8545546733710848,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.43437050153613316,
          "normalized_weight": 0.01950848733052933,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.018155663333168277
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "ec104f8a-5101-41e8-a3a9-ad0d516a8693",
          "question_id": "5b24bc8a-4464-46cc-8474-c8a1c1c085c3",
          "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
          "start_date": "10/31/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1089,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 47.5,
          "republican_pct": 48.1,
          "margin": -0.6000000000000014,
          "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/tx-senate-gen-1101/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 0.6305779722487987,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.596080230295976,
          "normalized_weight": 0.02677120932380056,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.024914748912596006
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "e516bc0a-6266-48e0-b4e9-73abd442e3ba",
          "question_id": "8eace49a-a5bc-45fe-8b14-2354a1743fd9",
          "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
          "start_date": "10/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "a",
          "sample_size": 1678,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 51.3,
          "republican_pct": 45.4,
          "margin": 5.899999999999999,
          "url": "https://www.atlasintel.org/poll/usa-texas-2026-11-01",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 1.5654919172269441,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
          "normalized_weight": 0.04491209062663873,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.041797643414922356
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "58393008-d203-4bf4-8bfd-aa610f32ab24",
          "question_id": "548fe325-ea9d-49eb-ab96-02f86a3beecc",
          "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
          "start_date": "10/27/26",
          "end_date": "2026-11-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1215,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 50.2,
          "republican_pct": 43.1,
          "margin": 7.100000000000001,
          "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/11/01/polls/times-siena-poll-crosstabs.html",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 2,
          "raw_weight": 1.3321189009117311,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8016537942756623,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03600394785969735,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03350723943535366
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "45558885-837e-4d56-958e-ddd52081bad8",
          "question_id": "a1f09c9b-5461-43b8-abb2-ac01816a26d6",
          "pollster": "Kreate Strategies",
          "start_date": "10/27/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-30",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 900,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 45.0,
          "margin": 3.0,
          "url": "https://kstrat.net/press/texas-2026-senate-governor-talarico-leads-paxton-october",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 4,
          "raw_weight": 1.073264050586395,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
          "normalized_weight": 0.04491209062663873,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.041797643414922356
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "4a8b3e3c-bb46-4a52-a75b-3eef218075c0",
          "question_id": "21ebde3a-d813-4380-abb5-2f133a4ae568",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "10/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-29",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 2138,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 51.0,
          "republican_pct": 47.0,
          "margin": 4.0,
          "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_tx_20261026_lv.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 5,
          "raw_weight": 1.5479807801590098,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3305764177989345,
          "normalized_weight": 0.014846878035215335,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.013817315232542258
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "efb35ed0-feb9-4785-8f6c-67a2f28a3148",
          "question_id": "67ab4426-8d0b-433b-a476-d314d6c7f865",
          "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
          "start_date": "10/26/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-28",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1207,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 48.4,
          "republican_pct": 49.4,
          "margin": -1.0,
          "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/polling/f/texas-survey-paxton-up-one-abbott-ahead-by-five",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 6,
          "raw_weight": 1.1635081766319386,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6757043787569764,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03034729629554995,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02824285067718574
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "06629328-a105-4cea-9764-1768892a646d",
          "question_id": "f17dc189-dcec-4330-992c-cccc695f72a6",
          "pollster": "ActiVote",
          "start_date": "10/22/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-28",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 400,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 52.1,
          "republican_pct": 47.9,
          "margin": 4.200000000000003,
          "url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/tx-u-s-senate/2026-10-29/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 6,
          "raw_weight": 0.6698010133943653,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4125989480318005,
          "normalized_weight": 0.01853068134646003,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01724566370320528
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "4dc32c45-083d-49e5-a155-7fbd9084ed08",
          "question_id": "4f856b3c-d0b3-4c08-ac01-81bd04919863",
          "pollster": "A2 Insights",
          "start_date": "10/23/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-27",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 631,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 50.2,
          "republican_pct": 47.2,
          "margin": 3.0,
          "url": "https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UACnmnM84Dd1hU0l6iqHNgXkyh5oCelO/view",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 7,
          "raw_weight": 0.8139462423299553,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8139462423299553,
          "normalized_weight": 0.036556027400735,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.034021034795823454
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "136e2129-b776-4f8f-af7b-672c60515804",
          "question_id": "553116ef-e1a9-42e7-9a0b-ac2cb6972b75",
          "pollster": "CNN/SSRS",
          "start_date": "10/20/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-27",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 923,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 49.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.0,
          "margin": 6.0,
          "url": "https://edition.cnn.com/2026/10/29/politics/cnn-polls-michigan-maine-texas-kansas-senate-races-midterms-vis",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 7,
          "raw_weight": 0.9844233206353894,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.9844233206353894,
          "normalized_weight": 0.044212509391353245,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.04114657492525178
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "f31e142f-d353-45f2-8409-f4e442b6383c",
          "question_id": "75b612a0-cf18-4fd4-84d2-09c61a12ca31",
          "pollster": "Data for Progress",
          "start_date": "10/23/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-26",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 712,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 49.0,
          "republican_pct": 45.0,
          "margin": 4.0,
          "url": "https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/30/democratic-senate-candidates-lead-in-maine-michigan-and-texas",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 8,
          "raw_weight": 0.8365391640637253,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8365391640637253,
          "normalized_weight": 0.037570722749162636,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.034965365682152826
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "f9198a5f-26a6-4d51-91e6-de346701bca2",
          "question_id": "e9558cc2-a959-4ff4-911a-bd339357c493",
          "pollster": "YouGov Blue",
          "start_date": "10/21/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-26",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1000,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 51.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.0,
          "margin": 8.0,
          "url": "https://254labs.io/news/2026-10-tx",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 8,
          "raw_weight": 0.991393988658295,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.991393988658295,
          "normalized_weight": 0.044525576665326194,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.04143793242163699
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "fed5cc59-dd90-4943-88f8-a52dcb154bdc",
          "question_id": "db8ad677-bbad-43ba-9551-81de412aeb5e",
          "pollster": "Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center",
          "start_date": "10/21/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-25",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 2000,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 49.0,
          "republican_pct": 47.0,
          "margin": 2.0,
          "url": "https://static1.squarespace.com/static/67aa7aa3e284b002cd6a420e/t/6ae28aaadbf6636957aa51e7/1793231530759/TSUStatewideOct2026.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 9,
          "raw_weight": 1.3565209874736013,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7757262994000221,
          "normalized_weight": 0.034839489860120886,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.032423531249899426
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "7a0a36a6-3db5-45a1-87cf-de2fcf9e7d2c",
          "question_id": "0e850468-66e9-414b-9304-bbd2ec1ef627",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "10/13/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-21",
          "population": "rv",
          "sample_size": 1000,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 45.0,
          "margin": 5.0,
          "url": "https://www.univision.com/noticias/politica/poll-univision-texas-latinos",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 13,
          "raw_weight": 0.8405672647472138,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.17950592078451988,
          "normalized_weight": 0.00806198618229259,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.007502924467818662
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "dea6fb5d-8b3f-4262-b316-4c61961e267d",
          "question_id": "11462646-db1a-42e2-b1d8-81946024344a",
          "pollster": "ActiVote",
          "start_date": "10/17/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-21",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 400,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 51.0,
          "republican_pct": 49.0,
          "margin": 2.0,
          "url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/tx-u-s-senate/2026-10-21/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 13,
          "raw_weight": 0.5316214166357908,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.32748000207332634,
          "normalized_weight": 0.014707811531529072,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.013687892352178928
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "2afcb084-c194-4f98-8215-52a1ffedd3e6",
          "question_id": "042da3eb-c5fa-435f-94ff-d68bf8fe5311",
          "pollster": "Verasight",
          "start_date": "10/1/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-20",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 601,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 47.6,
          "republican_pct": 45.2,
          "margin": 2.3999999999999986,
          "url": "https://cdn.votehub.com/pdfs/VoteHub_Verasight_Oct_2026_Texas_Report_D8A925D0.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 14,
          "raw_weight": 0.6304852734973567,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6304852734973567,
          "normalized_weight": 0.02831641174207439,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.026352798640002315
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "affba7ed-1250-40bd-a1fb-cb33b6fe0846",
          "question_id": "3c3dab80-a5e3-44ac-a76d-021ed4295754",
          "pollster": "Emerson College",
          "start_date": "10/17/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-19",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1000,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 49.37,
          "republican_pct": 47.83,
          "margin": 1.5399999999999991,
          "url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll-toss-up/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 15,
          "raw_weight": 0.7868699302555633,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.39996631801273846,
          "normalized_weight": 0.017963323522191117,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01671764953827588
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "1c95f8ce-b455-4511-ac5b-6259c3f6f770",
          "question_id": "3614ff38-afab-41f9-b54f-179c6f7aec16",
          "pollster": "Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research",
          "start_date": "10/15/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-19",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1398,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 49.0,
          "republican_pct": 49.0,
          "margin": 0.0,
          "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-texas-senate-race-galloping-toward-photo-finish",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 15,
          "raw_weight": 0.9303717931140606,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7158599565359024,
          "normalized_weight": 0.032150767243922115,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.029921259198309465
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "6afd8792-2ce0-46a6-b2e8-019dd5813772",
          "question_id": "a22cf620-b793-4f9e-b87b-d3f3622fa7eb",
          "pollster": "Slingshot Strategies",
          "start_date": "10/15/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-18",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 969,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 51.0,
          "republican_pct": 47.0,
          "margin": 4.0,
          "url": "https://texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com/p/october-poll-in-texas-general-election",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 16,
          "raw_weight": 0.749428277936257,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6259691421433684,
          "normalized_weight": 0.028113582841422263,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.026164034992053362
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "393edd18-28ac-4247-941b-c4cb665a1e91",
          "question_id": "44059dd8-e6da-4290-ae0c-76177c446d1c",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "10/8/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-16",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1458,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 51.0,
          "republican_pct": 49.0,
          "margin": 2.0,
          "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-senate-talarico-paxton-poll/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 18,
          "raw_weight": 0.860552610204175,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.18377385743742702,
          "normalized_weight": 0.008253668140036708,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.007681314162154352
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "b6037ae7-e4a6-46a2-a8e9-83eb3cc01ae4",
          "question_id": "0a38926a-9a08-4300-a29f-0c4ba739ed1c",
          "pollster": "Cor Strategies",
          "start_date": "10/10/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-15",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1409,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 44.0,
          "republican_pct": 40.0,
          "margin": 4.0,
          "url": "https://www.dailysignal.com/2026/10/23/texas-poll-election-integrity-proof-citizenship-support/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 19,
          "raw_weight": 0.40925067409606014,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.40925067409606014,
          "normalized_weight": 0.018380303364015246,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.017105713743183724
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "cec80170-8597-4cef-90ad-2ed9e6f2a4ed",
          "question_id": "afc559a0-0dd9-43b9-b838-e2633e3f7eea",
          "pollster": "University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs",
          "start_date": "10/10/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-14",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 2000,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 46.0,
          "margin": 2.0,
          "url": "https://www.uh.edu/hobby/texas2026/index.php",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 20,
          "raw_weight": 0.9435048537299646,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.9435048537299646,
          "normalized_weight": 0.04237477549739369,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.039436279436453545
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "954b5426-3589-4d4f-bf0e-b2c2e5dd1e16",
          "question_id": "e4c3cf2b-df58-43ff-b472-6ea7d7489124",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "start_date": "10/13/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-14",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1200,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 48.1,
          "republican_pct": 48.5,
          "margin": -0.3999999999999986,
          "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-senate-surveys-texas-paxton-49-talarico-48-kansas-marshall-48-hamilton-47-maine-jackson-49-collins-47/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 20,
          "raw_weight": 0.7308357171124036,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7308357171124036,
          "normalized_weight": 0.03282335996013678,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.030547210698753314
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "7dd88340-2b3d-4bc1-afbc-69f540b9f7fb",
          "question_id": "9024d7c4-6709-4e03-9a84-a5afdbb4c03f",
          "pollster": "ActiVote",
          "start_date": "9/30/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-14",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 400,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 51.9,
          "republican_pct": 48.1,
          "margin": 3.799999999999997,
          "url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/tx-u-s-senate/2026-10-14/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 20,
          "raw_weight": 0.42194819800823935,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2599210498948732,
          "normalized_weight": 0.011673597748649633,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.010864087359538152
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "0ca2b323-c88e-4b8b-9459-f3676311f436",
          "question_id": "f086250f-65ae-40aa-94c7-6bb1557a2562",
          "pollster": "New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group",
          "start_date": "10/9/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-13",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 934,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 49.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": 5.0,
          "url": "https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/survey-research/battleground-district-project/senate-battleground-district-project-october",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 21,
          "raw_weight": 0.6238322424070967,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6238322424070967,
          "normalized_weight": 0.02801761020680679,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.026074717618863232
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "739f9913-8719-4860-9462-53185dd10577",
          "question_id": "ca00a326-07ab-4b6d-a3bc-11101f190ae0",
          "pollster": "Marist University",
          "start_date": "10/8/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-11",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1196,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 47.0,
          "republican_pct": 45.0,
          "margin": 2.0,
          "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/2026-midterm-elections-in-texas-october-2026/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 23,
          "raw_weight": 0.6608310574486161,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6608310574486161,
          "normalized_weight": 0.029679304341029753,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02762118089674333
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "a891d4a9-58f2-4418-94e9-7b9760e82c7e",
          "question_id": "a3fa911e-37db-456e-85ca-f77ea6a43abc",
          "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
          "start_date": "10/9/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-11",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 854,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 46.7,
          "republican_pct": 47.2,
          "margin": -0.5,
          "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/f/texas-senate-paxton-and-talarico-in-a-near-tie",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 23,
          "raw_weight": 0.5584107767013584,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3242956212430235,
          "normalized_weight": 0.01456479433108878,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.013554792737736618
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "15206ef2-02d5-4b65-9cd4-7e2e04d4d952",
          "question_id": "6b73f7e3-7dc8-43f0-894a-9f496d2c8401",
          "pollster": "ReconMR/Siena Research Institute",
          "start_date": "10/5/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-08",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 617,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": 4.0,
          "url": "https://reconmr.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/TXP004-October-Press-Release.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 26,
          "raw_weight": 0.42989575100723937,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.42989575100723937,
          "normalized_weight": 0.019307516929244053,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01796862930619084
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "28fbc2b6-3a76-4299-b11f-fc0bbc3edcdd",
          "question_id": "ff722faf-497f-47e6-994a-1d3b666bdff9",
          "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
          "start_date": "10/6/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-08",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1086,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 47.1,
          "republican_pct": 43.6,
          "margin": 3.5,
          "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/tx-senate-gen-1009/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 26,
          "raw_weight": 0.28517108474428793,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.26956990784489343,
          "normalized_weight": 0.012106948131344506,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.011267386883494336
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "5c84ead6-f0b6-4d89-b2ac-92a7face0242",
          "question_id": "986200cf-7a02-4e12-95ad-51be09affead",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "9/25/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-05",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 861,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 47.0,
          "margin": 3.0,
          "url": "https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/latest-ut-texas-politics-poll-finds-historic-levels-of-competition-in-texas-midterm-elections",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 29,
          "raw_weight": 0.45995766573779884,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.09822548149670336,
          "normalized_weight": 0.004411511726825168,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.004105593649858261
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "52783584-7c3f-4898-9411-240ec7350ef9",
          "question_id": "7382c84a-9f84-4c4e-8a56-46b0e8ea8ea4",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "9/28/26",
          "end_date": "2026-10-05",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 3623,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": 6.0,
          "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_tx_20260921_lv.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 29,
          "raw_weight": 0.7010214122078596,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.14970544222404353,
          "normalized_weight": 0.006723584388467272,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0062573346913538325
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "54fd4696-1366-495e-9fa3-5d1726ee0027",
          "question_id": "97007306-9518-4dc8-be8a-5bba4675639e",
          "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
          "start_date": "9/21/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-30",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 615,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 50.8,
          "republican_pct": 45.09,
          "margin": 5.709999999999994,
          "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/03/polls/times-siena-texas-poll-crosstabs.html",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 34,
          "raw_weight": 0.3295945599661942,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.1983462057243377,
          "normalized_weight": 0.008908142766941385,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.008290403979568699
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "fe0bf257-4c98-497f-98cd-ce544f415fe6",
          "question_id": "ef9253cb-1c3c-466f-bd2d-71af6acd8b81",
          "pollster": "University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov",
          "start_date": "9/18/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-28",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 850,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 45.0,
          "republican_pct": 45.0,
          "margin": 0.0,
          "url": "https://www.uml.edu/news/press-releases/2026/10092026-texas-poll.aspx",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 36,
          "raw_weight": 0.36272911520490597,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.36272911520490597,
          "normalized_weight": 0.016290922895003217,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.015161222213544951
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "2cf199b9-e51d-4811-8e7a-140673f681e0",
          "question_id": "b79697a6-1d98-438a-bbc7-edae99563e1a",
          "pollster": "Guidant Polling and Strategy",
          "start_date": "9/20/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-28",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 47.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": 3.0,
          "url": "https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/documenttools/b31cf2744465b8b7/1a8b655b-full.pdf",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 36,
          "raw_weight": 0.1759494653501958,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.1759494653501958,
          "normalized_weight": 0.007902258333516625,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.00735427301175372
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "0f689fd7-56bb-475a-b53b-393375bac8de",
          "question_id": "71f88138-7b13-4a67-a324-c88ff0029416",
          "pollster": "Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research",
          "start_date": "9/24/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-28",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 881,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 51.0,
          "republican_pct": 49.0,
          "margin": 2.0,
          "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-its-lone-star-senate-showdown-between-talarico-paxton",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 36,
          "raw_weight": 0.36928435418072075,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.28414004346409755,
          "normalized_weight": 0.012761323382716617,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01187638421661289
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "d755f479-59b4-43e0-b087-a9f5546d1e0c",
          "question_id": "65a710cf-ab58-4890-a76d-cd4a12529d82",
          "pollster": "Pulse Decision Science",
          "start_date": "9/24/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-27",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 45.0,
          "republican_pct": 48.0,
          "margin": -3.0,
          "url": "https://www.elpasotimes.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/10/01/talarico-trails-paxton-in-conservative-texas-us-senate-race-poll/92022294007/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 37,
          "raw_weight": 0.17023669914060283,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.17023669914060283,
          "normalized_weight": 0.007645686059782586,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.007115492846812337
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "346e5096-282b-482c-a99b-757a119a62b0",
          "question_id": "81840c07-0234-4a6f-9dd5-df7948e2c92f",
          "pollster": "Big Data Poll",
          "start_date": "9/24/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-26",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 698,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 46.8,
          "republican_pct": 44.9,
          "margin": 1.8999999999999986,
          "url": "https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/lone-star-state-poll-talarico-paxton-in-close-race-us-senate-in-texas/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 38,
          "raw_weight": 0.30770258275224754,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.30770258275224754,
          "normalized_weight": 0.013819566282619745,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.012861242831729082
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "17be68ea-2c12-427d-b8f8-1d5f2a22b4aa",
          "question_id": "8390f112-5802-4bb5-879f-5500996a6bf5",
          "pollster": "Stratus Intelligence",
          "start_date": "9/22/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-24",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 865,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 48.0,
          "margin": 0.0,
          "url": "https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2026/09/28/trumps-joes-exit-the-front-row-01094720",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 40,
          "raw_weight": 0.1603289561197167,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.1603289561197167,
          "normalized_weight": 0.007200708607323101,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.006701372536978653
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "0b753876-a450-4658-aa67-645182cfbbf4",
          "question_id": "14fcda3f-0be4-4184-a05c-885b3670aa62",
          "pollster": "Slingshot Strategies",
          "start_date": "9/19/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-22",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1007,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 49.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": 5.0,
          "url": "https://texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com/p/new-poll-in-texas-general-election-662",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 42,
          "raw_weight": 0.3238762623801462,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.27052161239630257,
          "normalized_weight": 0.012149691172407176,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.011307165890970495
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "05e63b49-71e2-463d-8bcf-7a3336bbc033",
          "question_id": "8ee846fb-500a-41a9-82e5-972a1ab12b70",
          "pollster": "Marist University",
          "start_date": "9/17/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-20",
          "population": "rv",
          "sample_size": 1139,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": 6.0,
          "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/2026-midterm-elections-in-texas-september-2026/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 44,
          "raw_weight": 0.32244579828628395,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.32244579828628395,
          "normalized_weight": 0.014481714914812456,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01347747449741008
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "338180c3-6c81-43cc-838a-bb565adc0d9e",
          "question_id": "4ef75448-c417-4ae2-8e9f-42b861819cda",
          "pollster": "Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center",
          "start_date": "9/15/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-19",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1800,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 47.0,
          "republican_pct": 46.0,
          "margin": 1.0,
          "url": "https://static1.squarespace.com/static/67aa7aa3e284b002cd6a420e/t/6ab15cb39e4cc420b9ef07f5/1790008500236/TSUSept2026_TXStatewideRaces.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 45,
          "raw_weight": 0.39218985103063553,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.22427370059997792,
          "normalized_weight": 0.01007260076651785,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.009374112165022937
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "49057317-ed54-4c97-bf30-e3834fb30b8c",
          "question_id": "a40a3139-7065-441b-8686-c68e52e96068",
          "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
          "start_date": "9/15/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-17",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1079,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 46.4,
          "republican_pct": 45.2,
          "margin": 1.1999999999999957,
          "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/tx-general-0918/",
          "partisan": true,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 47,
          "raw_weight": 0.14212526964863628,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.1343498618591306,
          "normalized_weight": 0.006033933171493667,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.005615507618832017
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "7ec5edfc-97ad-42b9-ac2f-275f6a91ea96",
          "question_id": "3ff35cd5-fd87-4fd7-ac0c-589c07cb92ce",
          "pollster": "Emerson College",
          "start_date": "9/12/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-14",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1000,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 47.35,
          "republican_pct": 46.35,
          "margin": 1.0,
          "url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll-talarico-and-paxton-in-dead-heat-abbott-maintains-edge/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 50,
          "raw_weight": 0.24784849716457374,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.12598149582829904,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0056580923579200755,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.005265729639509772
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "a85e71a9-9e02-4087-bc15-c2d23c303ec1",
          "question_id": "707c0d83-bf47-485c-bc68-e37544f41f92",
          "pollster": "ReconMR/Siena Research Institute",
          "start_date": "9/8/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-11",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 614,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 49.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.0,
          "margin": 6.0,
          "url": "https://sri.siena.edu/2026/09/17/hinojosa-now-leads-abbott-by-4-points-talarico-widens-lead-to-6-points/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 53,
          "raw_weight": 0.17590014212817442,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.17590014212817442,
          "normalized_weight": 0.007900043124499203,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0073522114173075965
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "97830f95-88e5-4d39-817a-3345558ed38b",
          "question_id": "1ed3fc4c-efc1-425b-b240-a94506e38642",
          "pollster": "Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.",
          "start_date": "9/8/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-10",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 625,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 46.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.0,
          "margin": 3.0,
          "url": "https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/28623723/tx926allvoterresults.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 54,
          "raw_weight": 0.1717067039928573,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.1717067039928573,
          "normalized_weight": 0.007711707050928638,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.007176935585445075
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "ecd22fdf-f847-4f56-bb4a-40e120ba4a81",
          "question_id": "93d73c56-f6fa-449a-80af-5e9887e9bc0d",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "start_date": "9/8/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-09",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1200,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 47.1,
          "republican_pct": 45.6,
          "margin": 1.5,
          "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-u-s-senate-surveys-texas-talarico-47-paxton-46-south-carolina-graham-45-andrews-43-ohio-brown-47-husted-42/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 55,
          "raw_weight": 0.23019882600123304,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.23019882600123304,
          "normalized_weight": 0.010338710535513218,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.009621768443733296
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "df1a17b8-a353-44d4-aa55-1ad16461c603",
          "question_id": "0057d4bd-38bf-4ad4-af48-4134fdda7806",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "8/27/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-04",
          "population": "rv",
          "sample_size": 1000,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 43.0,
          "margin": 5.0,
          "url": "https://www.univision.com/noticias/politica/poll-univision-texas-2026",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 60,
          "raw_weight": 0.1781716791325384,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.03804915164050391,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0017088669467450314,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0015903648725100904
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "14e0e85c-3aa1-40fb-8c39-241c3590230a",
          "question_id": "8f9d998d-e8ef-4540-a0cf-0e7ab07175df",
          "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research",
          "start_date": "8/30/26",
          "end_date": "2026-09-01",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 895,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 44.0,
          "margin": 4.0,
          "url": "https://www.aarp.org/press/releases/2026-09-10-new-aarp-texas-poll-highly-motivated-older-voters-could-shape-close-senate-governor-races/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 63,
          "raw_weight": 0.1526672580046772,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.1526672580046772,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0068566057272264995,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.006381131611213449
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "b7eb2254-ebd3-4fee-baf7-62027d626ee3",
          "question_id": "82518cbc-39e8-4476-87a6-a7ac9516dc4b",
          "pollster": "Overton Insights",
          "start_date": "8/24/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-26",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1167,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 50.0,
          "republican_pct": 50.0,
          "margin": 0.0,
          "url": "https://overtoninsights.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Overton_Insights_Texas_Public_Policy_Foundation_Toplines_and_Demographics-2.pdf",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 69,
          "raw_weight": 0.14300830053132876,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.14300830053132876,
          "normalized_weight": 0.006422801753824626,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.005977409950982532
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "5ae82615-d4be-4bb8-b5c8-741b8254ec11",
          "question_id": "19eafb34-41c3-47c6-b14d-9932ed38a499",
          "pollster": "Slingshot Strategies",
          "start_date": "8/21/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-24",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1000,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 48.0,
          "republican_pct": 42.0,
          "margin": 6.0,
          "url": "https://texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com/p/new-poll-in-texas-general-election",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 71,
          "raw_weight": 0.1239242485822869,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.10350924546032898,
          "normalized_weight": 0.004648816612809289,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0043264425318985025
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "e6c33fe9-c763-4a06-bc90-89287bbbe49c",
          "question_id": "b995bc3b-ac97-4248-8ccb-13de5561ee02",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "start_date": "8/5/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-13",
          "population": "rv",
          "sample_size": 1200,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 42.0,
          "republican_pct": 39.0,
          "margin": 3.0,
          "url": "https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/new-ut-texas-politics-project-poll-finds-talarico-leading-paxton-abbott-leading-hinojosa-continued-resistance-to-data-centers-2",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 82,
          "raw_weight": 0.0944201179401309,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.020163728617867693,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0009055952070566227,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0008427963386848991
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "poll_id": "1d65760e-e087-40ce-91fe-c1ddeade33d8",
          "question_id": "e6c4fc2e-2903-4c1c-a37f-105999e231e0",
          "pollster": "Emerson College",
          "start_date": "8/9/26",
          "end_date": "2026-08-10",
          "population": "lv",
          "sample_size": 1000,
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
          "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "opposition_pct": 46.25,
          "republican_pct": 47.25,
          "margin": -1.0,
          "url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll-paxton-and-talarico/",
          "partisan": false,
          "final_rcv": false,
          "age_days": 85,
          "raw_weight": 0.07806738469061408,
          "pollster_capped_weight": 0.03968168462282929,
          "normalized_weight": 0.0017821874159982057,
          "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0016586009039684265
        }
      ],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.14973333333333333,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.669,
            "R": 0.29323333333333335,
            "unresolved": 0.037766666666666664
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.5546333333333333,
            "R": 0.3972,
            "unresolved": 0.04816666666666667
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.669,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.5546333333333333,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 20744,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.7912167373698419,
              "R": 0.1752313922097956,
              "unresolved": 0.03355187042036251
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 9256,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.2684745030250648,
              "R": 0.682800345721694,
              "unresolved": 0.04872515125324114
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.7912167373698419,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.2684745030250648,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 20744,
          "republican": 9256
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "VA",
      "state_name": "Virginia",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Democratic candidate",
      "republican_name": "Republican candidate",
      "margin": 7.60805047794243,
      "sigma": 16.787624984224102,
      "win_probability": 0.6747954643109781,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.6796,
      "interval80": [
        -13.906156602365623,
        29.122257558250485
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -25.2950898771016,
        40.51119083298646
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 0,
        "unique_pollsters": 0,
        "latest_poll_date": null,
        "oldest_poll_date": null,
        "latest_poll_age_days": null,
        "partisan_poll_count": 0,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 0,
        "has_polls": false,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-only",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.0,
        "prior_weight_share": 1.0,
        "poll_sigma": null,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.0,
      "prior_weight_share": 1.0,
      "polls": [],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.1403,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.6677666666666666,
            "R": 0.29756666666666665,
            "unresolved": 0.034666666666666665
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.5596666666666666,
            "R": 0.39586666666666664,
            "unresolved": 0.04446666666666667
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.6677666666666666,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.5596666666666666,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 20388,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.699970570924073,
              "R": 0.2664802825191289,
              "unresolved": 0.033549146556798116
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 9612,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.4813774448605909,
              "R": 0.47045359966708283,
              "unresolved": 0.04816895547232626
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.699970570924073,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.4813774448605909,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 20388,
          "republican": 9612
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "WV",
      "state_name": "West Virginia",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Democratic candidate",
      "republican_name": "Republican candidate",
      "margin": -38.2385430092645,
      "sigma": 16.787624984224102,
      "win_probability": 0.011369797077234955,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.011066666666666667,
      "interval80": [
        -59.75275008957255,
        -16.724335928956442
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -71.14168336430853,
        -5.3354026542204664
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 0,
        "unique_pollsters": 0,
        "latest_poll_date": null,
        "oldest_poll_date": null,
        "latest_poll_age_days": null,
        "partisan_poll_count": 0,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 0,
        "has_polls": false,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-only",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.0,
        "prior_weight_share": 1.0,
        "poll_sigma": null,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.0,
      "prior_weight_share": 1.0,
      "polls": [],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.12343333333333334,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.7275,
            "R": 0.24566666666666667,
            "unresolved": 0.026833333333333334
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.6292666666666666,
            "R": 0.33236666666666664,
            "unresolved": 0.03836666666666667
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.7275,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.6292666666666666,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 332,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.8343373493975904,
              "R": 0.1536144578313253,
              "unresolved": 0.012048192771084338
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 29668,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.6276459484966967,
              "R": 0.3338276931373871,
              "unresolved": 0.03852635836591614
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.8343373493975904,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.6276459484966967,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 332,
          "republican": 29668
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "state": "WY",
      "state_name": "Wyoming",
      "special": false,
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_name": "Democratic candidate",
      "republican_name": "Republican candidate",
      "margin": -42.72334472142096,
      "sigma": 16.787624984224102,
      "win_probability": 0.005464969023894206,
      "simulation_win_probability": 0.004966666666666667,
      "interval80": [
        -64.23755180172901,
        -21.209137641112903
      ],
      "interval95": [
        -75.62648507646499,
        -9.820204366376927
      ],
      "coverage": {
        "poll_count": 0,
        "unique_pollsters": 0,
        "latest_poll_date": null,
        "oldest_poll_date": null,
        "latest_poll_age_days": null,
        "partisan_poll_count": 0,
        "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
        "effective_polls": 0,
        "has_polls": false,
        "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
      },
      "blend": {
        "mode": "historical-only",
        "poll_weight_share": 0.0,
        "prior_weight_share": 1.0,
        "poll_sigma": null,
        "prior_sigma": 16.787624984224102
      },
      "poll_weight_share": 0.0,
      "prior_weight_share": 1.0,
      "polls": [],
      "pivotal": {
        "probability_control_changes_if_flipped": 0.12336666666666667,
        "forced_control": {
          "opposition": {
            "D": 0.7278333333333333,
            "R": 0.2453,
            "unresolved": 0.026866666666666667
          },
          "republican": {
            "D": 0.6296666666666667,
            "R": 0.33213333333333334,
            "unresolved": 0.0382
          }
        },
        "dem_control_if_opposition_forced": 0.7278333333333333,
        "dem_control_if_republican_forced": 0.6296666666666667,
        "conditional": {
          "opposition": {
            "sample_count": 149,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.8187919463087249,
              "R": 0.1476510067114094,
              "unresolved": 0.03355704697986577
            }
          },
          "republican": {
            "sample_count": 29851,
            "reliable_sample": true,
            "control": {
              "D": 0.6289906535794446,
              "R": 0.3327526716022914,
              "unresolved": 0.038256674818264044
            }
          }
        },
        "conditional_dem_control_given_opposition_win": 0.8187919463087249,
        "conditional_dem_control_given_republican_win": 0.6289906535794446,
        "conditional_counts": {
          "opposition": 149,
          "republican": 29851
        }
      }
    }
  ],
  "polls": [
    {
      "state": "AL",
      "poll_id": "87c6b869-73ff-4c58-b40e-35f7f60e6cc6",
      "question_id": "cf8f809f-e5d0-4b42-a1be-f4f47c2106aa",
      "pollster": "Blueprint Polling",
      "start_date": "10/22/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-24",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 695,
      "opposition_name": "Everett Wess",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b76881c2-0d66-4cc9-adc7-3083b70a4575",
      "republican_name": "Barry Moore",
      "opposition_pct": 39.5,
      "republican_pct": 47.8,
      "margin": -8.299999999999997,
      "url": "https://www.chismstrategies.com/field-notes/new-alabama-poll-governors-race-a-toss-up-as-tuberville-edges-jones-48--45",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 10,
      "raw_weight": 0.7736938774422157,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7736938774422157,
      "normalized_weight": 0.3856981106107865,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.3528664531437381,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "AL"
    },
    {
      "state": "AL",
      "poll_id": "840876f8-96ce-40df-a6d9-3a06397c11e6",
      "question_id": "911ea3d3-ea5b-4c7f-96e5-37491e20c750",
      "pollster": "Cygnal Political",
      "start_date": "10/16/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-17",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 500,
      "opposition_name": "Everett Wess",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b76881c2-0d66-4cc9-adc7-3083b70a4575",
      "republican_name": "Barry Moore",
      "opposition_pct": 35.0,
      "republican_pct": 49.8,
      "margin": -14.799999999999997,
      "url": "https://www.wbrc.com/2026/10/20/tuberville-leads-jones-51-40-percent-exclusive-gray-alabama-daily-news-poll/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 17,
      "raw_weight": 0.520856907551799,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.520856907551799,
      "normalized_weight": 0.25965505350184187,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.23755251905421212,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "AL"
    },
    {
      "state": "AL",
      "poll_id": "308785d0-efaa-45ee-8e64-c6f0526eea06",
      "question_id": "d82624ce-880c-44cf-a7c7-b2173977ae10",
      "pollster": "The Alabama Poll",
      "start_date": "10/15/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-16",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 600,
      "opposition_name": "Everett Wess",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b76881c2-0d66-4cc9-adc7-3083b70a4575",
      "republican_name": "Barry Moore",
      "opposition_pct": 35.0,
      "republican_pct": 56.0,
      "margin": -21.0,
      "url": "https://www.al.com/politics/2026/10/gop-faces-election-downturn-but-theres-no-blue-wave-for-alabama-democrats-poll-shows.html",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 18,
      "raw_weight": 0.5520447568369061,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5520447568369061,
      "normalized_weight": 0.2752026685134111,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.25177667938335874,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "AL"
    },
    {
      "state": "AL",
      "poll_id": "080dacda-e25f-4b72-a30a-a7a1bbd9cc52",
      "question_id": "5d0de754-d698-49c4-976e-1ff9a47b6233",
      "pollster": "RMG Research",
      "start_date": "9/21/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-25",
      "population": "rv",
      "sample_size": 800,
      "opposition_name": "Everett Wess",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b76881c2-0d66-4cc9-adc7-3083b70a4575",
      "republican_name": "Barry Moore",
      "opposition_pct": 33.0,
      "republican_pct": 54.0,
      "margin": -21.0,
      "url": "https://www.al.com/politics/2026/09/new-poll-offers-some-good-news-for-alabamas-republican-politicians.html",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 39,
      "raw_weight": 0.15936159448225462,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.15936159448225462,
      "normalized_weight": 0.07944416737396061,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.07268166680882614,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "AL"
    },
    {
      "state": "AK",
      "poll_id": "dd778e11-d751-4a94-9ece-1dd896021d10",
      "question_id": "f0e2c2b6-a0bf-4373-8593-72f4920bb5d3",
      "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
      "start_date": "10/31/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1200,
      "opposition_name": "Mary Peltola",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "c722c2a0-c058-4d21-b6bd-b42aa2b68d62",
      "republican_name": "Dan Sullivan",
      "opposition_pct": 50.1,
      "republican_pct": 49.9,
      "margin": 0.20000000000000284,
      "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-final-alaska-survey-race-tied-in-first-round-48-peltola-48-sullivan-tied-in-ranked-choice-round/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": true,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 1.3238704073559722,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6739607691732418,
      "normalized_weight": 0.15334387988415932,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.14156411915748288,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "AK"
    },
    {
      "state": "AK",
      "poll_id": "a0d99ae7-a6c2-430d-ad8f-92e91d659b66",
      "question_id": "7c25d9d7-929b-44bf-a6ac-d2a471c0fb18",
      "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
      "start_date": "10/23/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-30",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 610,
      "opposition_name": "Mary Peltola",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "c722c2a0-c058-4d21-b6bd-b42aa2b68d62",
      "republican_name": "Dan Sullivan",
      "opposition_pct": 47.6,
      "republican_pct": 46.2,
      "margin": 1.3999999999999986,
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/11/01/polls/times-siena-poll-crosstabs.html",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 4,
      "raw_weight": 0.883588887933423,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7412824103437113,
      "normalized_weight": 0.1686613317737,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.15570489599264592,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "AK"
    },
    {
      "state": "AK",
      "poll_id": "0c4baea9-f768-41f4-8f0b-49246ff20b7f",
      "question_id": "3a290d14-add4-4aa7-9ef8-97a17e55c38a",
      "pollster": "Alaska Survey Research",
      "start_date": "10/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-29",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1326,
      "opposition_name": "Mary Peltola",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "c722c2a0-c058-4d21-b6bd-b42aa2b68d62",
      "republican_name": "Dan Sullivan",
      "opposition_pct": 50.8,
      "republican_pct": 49.2,
      "margin": 1.5999999999999943,
      "url": "https://x.com/The_Real_ASR/status/2116291676176331181",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": true,
      "age_days": 5,
      "raw_weight": 1.2604404391627335,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5421457580281925,
      "normalized_weight": 0.12335248252025757,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.11387663822684423,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "AK"
    },
    {
      "state": "AK",
      "poll_id": "fa49898d-55a4-4393-962f-1cd6cfe135c3",
      "question_id": "5ec77c8e-2ee7-497f-b8d6-232456c26a58",
      "pollster": "Data for Progress",
      "start_date": "10/8/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-16",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 671,
      "opposition_name": "Mary Peltola",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "c722c2a0-c058-4d21-b6bd-b42aa2b68d62",
      "republican_name": "Dan Sullivan",
      "opposition_pct": 51.0,
      "republican_pct": 49.0,
      "margin": 2.0,
      "url": "https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/20/every-statewide-race-in-alaska-is-close-as-7-in-10-voters-worry-about-affording-gas-and-food",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": true,
      "age_days": 18,
      "raw_weight": 0.5837943994432753,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5837943994432753,
      "normalized_weight": 0.13282864872845893,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.12262485252315217,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "AK"
    },
    {
      "state": "AK",
      "poll_id": "807a27fa-a7e2-46cb-a2b0-3c8a8bb5022e",
      "question_id": "67e33a5f-fd80-41ff-8e52-2a5a38e078fb",
      "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
      "start_date": "10/9/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-10",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1200,
      "opposition_name": "Mary Peltola",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "c722c2a0-c058-4d21-b6bd-b42aa2b68d62",
      "republican_name": "Dan Sullivan",
      "opposition_pct": 50.1,
      "republican_pct": 48.0,
      "margin": 2.1000000000000014,
      "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-u-s-senate-surveys-alaska-ranks-choice-peltola-50-sullivan-48-kansas-hamilton-48-marshall-47-michigan-el-sayed-48-rogers-46/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": true,
      "age_days": 24,
      "raw_weight": 0.6404433448821364,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.32603923082675834,
      "normalized_weight": 0.07418253841503734,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06848389199180377,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "AK"
    },
    {
      "state": "AK",
      "poll_id": "e5216fed-b2a6-4670-9dae-7707e2912184",
      "question_id": "e5857108-5dd4-49bb-909a-996cc4a5d06f",
      "pollster": "Alaska Survey Research",
      "start_date": "10/1/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-03",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1512,
      "opposition_name": "Mary Peltola",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "c722c2a0-c058-4d21-b6bd-b42aa2b68d62",
      "republican_name": "Dan Sullivan",
      "opposition_pct": 51.0,
      "republican_pct": 49.0,
      "margin": 2.0,
      "url": "https://x.com/The_Real_ASR/status/2107851752464884167",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": true,
      "age_days": 31,
      "raw_weight": 0.5705880314615911,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2454236402031368,
      "normalized_weight": 0.055840361821370435,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05155074751368698,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "AK"
    },
    {
      "state": "AK",
      "poll_id": "c115983e-1ed7-42e1-bd8c-92692471a053",
      "question_id": "bc693063-594f-4e5f-9f21-23d577e1dae8",
      "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
      "start_date": "9/24/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 504,
      "opposition_name": "Mary Peltola",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "c722c2a0-c058-4d21-b6bd-b42aa2b68d62",
      "republican_name": "Dan Sullivan",
      "opposition_pct": 50.07,
      "republican_pct": 43.07,
      "margin": 7.0,
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/03/polls/times-siena-alaska-poll-crosstabs.html",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 33,
      "raw_weight": 0.30838447552967096,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.25871758965628866,
      "normalized_weight": 0.05886508652549664,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05434311515664068,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "AK"
    },
    {
      "state": "AK",
      "poll_id": "74dcee91-0001-4995-8872-9b54884e9f9e",
      "question_id": "a02492a1-cd7d-4ced-a6b3-0e4b6f095dc5",
      "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
      "start_date": "9/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-30",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 758,
      "opposition_name": "Mary Peltola",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "c722c2a0-c058-4d21-b6bd-b42aa2b68d62",
      "republican_name": "Dan Sullivan",
      "opposition_pct": 46.2,
      "republican_pct": 46.5,
      "margin": -0.29999999999999716,
      "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/f/quantus-insights-survey-sullivan-peltola-deadlocked-in-alaska",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 34,
      "raw_weight": 0.3659123602503667,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3659123602503667,
      "normalized_weight": 0.08325472873917127,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.07685916352553081,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "AK"
    },
    {
      "state": "AK",
      "poll_id": "16224059-2ccc-4343-9243-33991199136c",
      "question_id": "e72992f4-9ddb-464c-9990-4620acd555df",
      "pollster": "co/efficient",
      "start_date": "9/14/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-17",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 799,
      "opposition_name": "Mary Peltola",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "c722c2a0-c058-4d21-b6bd-b42aa2b68d62",
      "republican_name": "Dan Sullivan",
      "opposition_pct": 46.0,
      "republican_pct": 49.0,
      "margin": -3.0,
      "url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/ak/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 47,
      "raw_weight": 0.2446042308568077,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2446042308568077,
      "normalized_weight": 0.055653924547679284,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.051378632210173414,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "AK"
    },
    {
      "state": "AK",
      "poll_id": "2661bff9-27ee-49ab-8779-d67703b361f8",
      "question_id": "fe534c15-60d1-40fa-965f-4f48f2b70363",
      "pollster": "Alaska Survey Research",
      "start_date": "9/10/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-12",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1352,
      "opposition_name": "Mary Peltola",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "c722c2a0-c058-4d21-b6bd-b42aa2b68d62",
      "republican_name": "Dan Sullivan",
      "opposition_pct": 51.9,
      "republican_pct": 48.1,
      "margin": 3.799999999999997,
      "url": "https://x.com/The_Real_ASR/status/2102418467635011721",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": true,
      "age_days": 52,
      "raw_weight": 0.2697771189088224,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.11603762945485925,
      "normalized_weight": 0.026401626217793486,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.024373473285471063,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "AK"
    },
    {
      "state": "AK",
      "poll_id": "a1d3551f-cc1f-40ee-8d08-c7fdc1872796",
      "question_id": "3d5ad689-e945-4d8c-a1c2-a2270f0b5f9f",
      "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research",
      "start_date": "9/8/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-11",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 800,
      "opposition_name": "Mary Peltola",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "c722c2a0-c058-4d21-b6bd-b42aa2b68d62",
      "republican_name": "Dan Sullivan",
      "opposition_pct": 53.0,
      "republican_pct": 47.0,
      "margin": 6.0,
      "url": "https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/voter-research/politics/2026-midterm-election-poll-alaska/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": true,
      "age_days": 53,
      "raw_weight": 0.2007830274330033,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2007830274330033,
      "normalized_weight": 0.04568344308710058,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.042174075584835,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "AK"
    },
    {
      "state": "AK",
      "poll_id": "5644eb93-7595-4afd-bacf-2fd24589ef3b",
      "question_id": "3b5dd101-97ba-48a0-8e39-e5fddb9a5d99",
      "pollster": "Alaska Survey Research",
      "start_date": "8/20/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-23",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1495,
      "opposition_name": "Mary Peltola",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "c722c2a0-c058-4d21-b6bd-b42aa2b68d62",
      "republican_name": "Dan Sullivan",
      "opposition_pct": 50.6,
      "republican_pct": 49.4,
      "margin": 1.2000000000000028,
      "url": "https://x.com/the_real_asr/status/2093483993954144564",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": true,
      "age_days": 72,
      "raw_weight": 0.14660275401993136,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.0630573716437979,
      "normalized_weight": 0.014347217917474663,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01324507550208117,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "AK"
    },
    {
      "state": "AK",
      "poll_id": "25f3873e-a991-4492-a3a3-aa1c6b9c0d71",
      "question_id": "0be7c48f-17ba-4d7f-94f7-8151fd9d3deb",
      "pollster": "Alaska Survey Research",
      "start_date": "8/2/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-05",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1371,
      "opposition_name": "Mary Peltola",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "c722c2a0-c058-4d21-b6bd-b42aa2b68d62",
      "republican_name": "Dan Sullivan",
      "opposition_pct": 50.8,
      "republican_pct": 49.2,
      "margin": 1.5999999999999943,
      "url": "https://bsky.app/profile/alaskasurvey.bsky.social/post/3mstcarsnc32q",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": true,
      "age_days": 90,
      "raw_weight": 0.07750229255889557,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.033335600670013385,
      "normalized_weight": 0.007584729822300445,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.007002076621203137,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "AK"
    },
    {
      "state": "AR",
      "poll_id": "641ee852-f596-4554-a4f7-c74286914371",
      "question_id": "2e1b0d01-6660-4ce8-ba99-84990932443b",
      "pollster": "GrayHouse",
      "start_date": "10/27/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-28",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 509,
      "opposition_name": "Hallie Shoffner",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "27f9f4bf-8c54-48c7-af34-50ce91a01025",
      "republican_name": "Tom Cotton",
      "opposition_pct": 39.0,
      "republican_pct": 55.0,
      "margin": -16.0,
      "url": "https://www.grayhouse.com/post/arkansas-senate-poll-october-2026-cotton",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 6,
      "raw_weight": 0.37778499122347725,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.37778499122347725,
      "normalized_weight": 0.29462767465710277,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.26801362088143366,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "AR"
    },
    {
      "state": "AR",
      "poll_id": "2fe207af-8764-4bfe-bf8b-a2ba80e88d49",
      "question_id": "414b10d8-cfba-4006-9d8f-7a77b40376b5",
      "pollster": "Hendrix College",
      "start_date": "10/8/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-13",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 709,
      "opposition_name": "Hallie Shoffner",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "27f9f4bf-8c54-48c7-af34-50ce91a01025",
      "republican_name": "Tom Cotton",
      "opposition_pct": 41.0,
      "republican_pct": 50.0,
      "margin": -9.0,
      "url": "https://talkbusiness.net/2026/10/poll-cotton-takes-lead-over-shoffner/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 21,
      "raw_weight": 0.5435224619706776,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5435224619706776,
      "normalized_weight": 0.4238833273278345,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.38559346307376524,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "AR"
    },
    {
      "state": "AR",
      "poll_id": "df432e8b-d597-4e16-8453-04a7399c56f1",
      "question_id": "386d610d-c0df-48bb-8d98-99484cee4f95",
      "pollster": "GrayHouse",
      "start_date": "9/30/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-04",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 550,
      "opposition_name": "Hallie Shoffner",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "27f9f4bf-8c54-48c7-af34-50ce91a01025",
      "republican_name": "Tom Cotton",
      "opposition_pct": 39.0,
      "republican_pct": 50.0,
      "margin": -11.0,
      "url": "https://x.com/LandonWall_/status/2108601370580332749",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 30,
      "raw_weight": 0.17784140179885302,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.17784140179885302,
      "normalized_weight": 0.13869528934980987,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.1261667857274539,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "AR"
    },
    {
      "state": "AR",
      "poll_id": "17f8fc5a-1b7e-4437-8310-e11f988d88af",
      "question_id": "b83dc8e7-0644-4ccf-8ee1-1fb8700a0d0c",
      "pollster": "J.L. Partners",
      "start_date": "8/14/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-18",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 803,
      "opposition_name": "Hallie Shoffner",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "27f9f4bf-8c54-48c7-af34-50ce91a01025",
      "republican_name": "Tom Cotton",
      "opposition_pct": 35.0,
      "republican_pct": 51.0,
      "margin": -16.0,
      "url": "https://jlpartners.com/arkansas-senate-likely-voter-polling",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 77,
      "raw_weight": 0.09109729819885232,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.09109729819885232,
      "normalized_weight": 0.071045133500276,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06462754558808645,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "AR"
    },
    {
      "state": "AR",
      "poll_id": "528d611e-0325-4931-8032-a2c7ece004a7",
      "question_id": "317a06d5-a01a-4d16-9cd3-c4007752cb6c",
      "pollster": "Hendrix College",
      "start_date": "8/11/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-12",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1217,
      "opposition_name": "Hallie Shoffner",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "27f9f4bf-8c54-48c7-af34-50ce91a01025",
      "republican_name": "Tom Cotton",
      "opposition_pct": 47.4,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": 3.3999999999999986,
      "url": "https://talkbusiness.net/2026/08/poll-gov-sanders-holds-lead-over-two-opponents/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 83,
      "raw_weight": 0.09199928306308655,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.09199928306308655,
      "normalized_weight": 0.07174857516497683,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06526744456517593,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "AR"
    },
    {
      "state": "CO",
      "poll_id": "d936e903-4367-4a56-b855-942ae35fce12",
      "question_id": "5a8dc49b-961c-433d-a80d-0b53b826534a",
      "pollster": "Research Co.",
      "start_date": "10/31/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-02",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 450,
      "opposition_name": "John Hickenlooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "decc7707-5bbc-44fe-a5ce-2adf5d67f9cc",
      "republican_name": "Mark Baisley",
      "opposition_pct": 57.0,
      "republican_pct": 35.0,
      "margin": 22.0,
      "url": "https://researchco.ca/2026/11/02/midterms-2026-two/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 1,
      "raw_weight": 0.8379070991704293,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8379070991704293,
      "normalized_weight": 0.4969909723474731,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.45337175648164274,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "CO"
    },
    {
      "state": "CO",
      "poll_id": "3ee13e5a-1bb0-40a5-acf3-81088c10f4a5",
      "question_id": "85d34933-489d-4040-9927-842c33cf9b03",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "10/9/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-20",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 710,
      "opposition_name": "John Hickenlooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "decc7707-5bbc-44fe-a5ce-2adf5d67f9cc",
      "republican_name": "Mark Baisley",
      "opposition_pct": 57.0,
      "republican_pct": 39.0,
      "margin": 18.0,
      "url": "https://www.colorado.edu/lab/aprl/media/84",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 14,
      "raw_weight": 0.6852781512207962,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6852781512207962,
      "normalized_weight": 0.40646159346410937,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.3707878348388024,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "CO"
    },
    {
      "state": "CO",
      "poll_id": "b805e995-fdc6-4384-a5e9-7c8ca121cebc",
      "question_id": "ff2c70e4-2c71-4b9e-b49f-697d6b84a55a",
      "pollster": "Lake Research Partners",
      "start_date": "9/16/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-30",
      "population": "rv",
      "sample_size": 600,
      "opposition_name": "John Hickenlooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "decc7707-5bbc-44fe-a5ce-2adf5d67f9cc",
      "republican_name": "Mark Baisley",
      "opposition_pct": 52.0,
      "republican_pct": 38.0,
      "margin": 14.0,
      "url": "https://ballot.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/LRP-Topline-CO-BISC-State-Partners-10.8.26.pdf",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 34,
      "raw_weight": 0.162775150886654,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.162775150886654,
      "normalized_weight": 0.09654743418841749,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.08807379259838016,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "CO"
    },
    {
      "state": "FL",
      "poll_id": "cd6d6c9c-946e-406c-8a1b-1d54c5da3ae3",
      "question_id": "61be82d8-bb37-4de2-8dcd-1d1a57bcf7ac",
      "pollster": "Research Co.",
      "start_date": "10/31/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-02",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 450,
      "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
      "opposition_pct": 44.0,
      "republican_pct": 51.0,
      "margin": -7.0,
      "url": "https://researchco.ca/2026/11/02/midterms-2026-two/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 1,
      "raw_weight": 0.8379070991704293,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8379070991704293,
      "normalized_weight": 0.06151202038027074,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0571767537244925,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "FL"
    },
    {
      "state": "FL",
      "poll_id": "1463c401-194c-4f2b-a897-d274eaa1618f",
      "question_id": "1cce081f-190f-448f-81a8-a5b7a4bc577a",
      "pollster": "Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research",
      "start_date": "10/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-30",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 859,
      "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
      "opposition_pct": 45.0,
      "republican_pct": 49.0,
      "margin": -4.0,
      "url": "https://www.stetson.edu/artsci/cpor/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 4,
      "raw_weight": 1.0485325329766988,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5787667754096546,
      "normalized_weight": 0.042488139460411745,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.039493644837571194,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "FL"
    },
    {
      "state": "FL",
      "poll_id": "63f40723-ec76-453c-90cd-01e1224edc02",
      "question_id": "6394a85d-27bf-47c6-aa26-f328c881b5dc",
      "pollster": "Big Data Poll",
      "start_date": "10/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-30",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1067,
      "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
      "opposition_pct": 44.7,
      "republican_pct": 51.6,
      "margin": -6.899999999999999,
      "url": "https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/sunshine-state-poll-ashley-moody-leads-angie-craig-governors-race-tight/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 4,
      "raw_weight": 1.1686044553102888,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
      "normalized_weight": 0.07341150402135366,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06823758120810815,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "FL"
    },
    {
      "state": "FL",
      "poll_id": "ac95d9d0-6076-4d28-9e91-be2b3a5f22e0",
      "question_id": "7b830a2c-473e-44cd-8642-0defb7449c74",
      "pollster": "Targoz Market Research",
      "start_date": "10/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-29",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1013,
      "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
      "opposition_pct": 43.0,
      "republican_pct": 52.0,
      "margin": -9.0,
      "url": "https://www.targoz.com/market-matters-blog/2026/11/2/republicans-lead-all-five-florida-statewide-races",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 5,
      "raw_weight": 1.1016795528161394,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7139529221683025,
      "normalized_weight": 0.05241235781681553,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.048718420505225665,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "FL"
    },
    {
      "state": "FL",
      "poll_id": "5823662f-30b2-42b1-a224-9352ede8ad74",
      "question_id": "fc429313-70a2-43da-8882-9f31debb6272",
      "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
      "start_date": "10/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-29",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1200,
      "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
      "opposition_pct": 42.7,
      "republican_pct": 48.5,
      "margin": -5.799999999999997,
      "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-florida-survey-donalds-49-jolly-45-moody-49-nixon-43/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 5,
      "raw_weight": 1.1990607563610018,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8321357423857325,
      "normalized_weight": 0.06108833639846231,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05678293029721579,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "FL"
    },
    {
      "state": "FL",
      "poll_id": "c69c6758-b7d5-450d-81dd-c1c7f2ad1268",
      "question_id": "d11d5f5e-d28f-43d6-8882-fee61bfd205b",
      "pollster": "The Political Matrix/The Listener Group",
      "start_date": "10/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-28",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 500,
      "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
      "opposition_pct": 35.8,
      "republican_pct": 41.8,
      "margin": -6.0,
      "url": "https://palafoxproductions.com/new-florida-statewide-poll-for-november-election/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 6,
      "raw_weight": 0.748860298674024,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.748860298674024,
      "normalized_weight": 0.05497496082754021,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05110041544429684,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "FL"
    },
    {
      "state": "FL",
      "poll_id": "50db879b-b0ff-49d4-809b-1b56e23071d9",
      "question_id": "5568f3f5-fe5c-4e67-adfe-926ab945ee4b",
      "pollster": "St. Pete Polls",
      "start_date": "10/25/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-27",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 916,
      "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
      "opposition_pct": 44.7,
      "republican_pct": 49.0,
      "margin": -4.299999999999997,
      "url": "https://floridapolitics.com/archives/827489-final-st-pete-polls-ashley-moody-holds-49-to-45-over-angie-nixon-with-a-cushion-that-shrinks-if-republicans-stay-home/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 7,
      "raw_weight": 0.9806832999256624,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5680787332127698,
      "normalized_weight": 0.04170351420769474,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.038764318690205586,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "FL"
    },
    {
      "state": "FL",
      "poll_id": "1c664c13-d62e-4274-b08a-f8a8a254a1e8",
      "question_id": "ca5c9d3f-51eb-4e3d-b335-5d3b73ddc972",
      "pollster": "ActiVote",
      "start_date": "10/17/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-27",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 400,
      "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
      "opposition_pct": 47.0,
      "republican_pct": 53.0,
      "margin": -6.0,
      "url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/fl-u-s-senate/2026-10-27/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 7,
      "raw_weight": 0.6480537657465553,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5977464612973163,
      "normalized_weight": 0.04388146674727785,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0407887726946349,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "FL"
    },
    {
      "state": "FL",
      "poll_id": "e8777b6f-33f5-4438-acec-0ab4d8869a70",
      "question_id": "e2867eb5-d033-4fcb-a3d7-079d7eb93f48",
      "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
      "start_date": "10/19/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-25",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 813,
      "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
      "opposition_pct": 44.32,
      "republican_pct": 50.35,
      "margin": -6.030000000000001,
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/28/polls/times-siena-fl-poll-toplines.html",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 9,
      "raw_weight": 0.8648818679530793,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8648818679530793,
      "normalized_weight": 0.06349227872723334,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.059017446699868525,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "FL"
    },
    {
      "state": "FL",
      "poll_id": "ab99ade2-cb4e-40de-81c4-6a0df198c1e8",
      "question_id": "c22cbbcd-c6a3-441b-9e8b-fea8932b3572",
      "pollster": "Echelon Insights",
      "start_date": "10/16/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-23",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 515,
      "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
      "opposition_pct": 43.0,
      "republican_pct": 51.0,
      "margin": -8.0,
      "url": "https://netchoice.org/netchoice-echelon-insights-poll-voters-rank-ai-regulation-far-behind-cost-of-living-want-one-national-ai-standard/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 11,
      "raw_weight": 0.6443852793811867,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6443852793811867,
      "normalized_weight": 0.047305292528593085,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.043971292831083184,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "FL"
    },
    {
      "state": "FL",
      "poll_id": "1e6f3670-4580-45df-928a-94a521db841c",
      "question_id": "cf48ec36-3f46-4fc8-8e0d-9f3a9d1a651c",
      "pollster": "Workbench Strategy",
      "start_date": "10/18/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-22",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 800,
      "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
      "opposition_pct": 47.0,
      "republican_pct": 49.0,
      "margin": -2.0,
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/newsletters/florida-playbook/2026/10/30/gop-closing-message-keep-florida-great-01142052",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 12,
      "raw_weight": 0.38852791925933,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.38852791925933,
      "normalized_weight": 0.02852241890711447,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.026512205442075817,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "FL"
    },
    {
      "state": "FL",
      "poll_id": "683e1b42-52d2-4e06-9a93-d86d85377fbc",
      "question_id": "a8f82f3f-824a-45b6-a089-b237c854ff89",
      "pollster": "co/efficient",
      "start_date": "10/18/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-20",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1014,
      "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
      "opposition_pct": 40.0,
      "republican_pct": 48.0,
      "margin": -8.0,
      "url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/fl/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 14,
      "raw_weight": 0.8189486824316676,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8189486824316676,
      "normalized_weight": 0.06012025449361464,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05588307722270409,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "FL"
    },
    {
      "state": "FL",
      "poll_id": "c4a25cad-66f7-4bdc-b678-8a2bb31191a6",
      "question_id": "41cbc861-90e0-4471-87f4-921689304ff6",
      "pollster": "University of North Florida",
      "start_date": "10/12/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-19",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1471,
      "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
      "opposition_pct": 45.0,
      "republican_pct": 49.0,
      "margin": -4.0,
      "url": "https://floridapolitics.com/archives/825948-unf-poll-governors-race-too-close-to-call-in-final-days/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 15,
      "raw_weight": 0.9543535332273472,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.9543535332273472,
      "normalized_weight": 0.07006052824231246,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06512277672484604,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "FL"
    },
    {
      "state": "FL",
      "poll_id": "02c34c80-bfc6-418f-a68f-d501759d8925",
      "question_id": "3059a731-a167-43f5-bdd3-9d47e061be00",
      "pollster": "ActiVote",
      "start_date": "9/27/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-15",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 400,
      "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
      "opposition_pct": 46.9,
      "republican_pct": 53.1,
      "margin": -6.200000000000003,
      "url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/fl-u-s-senate/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 19,
      "raw_weight": 0.43610784407720626,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4022535387026836,
      "normalized_weight": 0.029530037274075795,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.027448808513473248,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "FL"
    },
    {
      "state": "FL",
      "poll_id": "78502352-75f9-4ca4-9e47-88799143c059",
      "question_id": "821ecaa0-b6a1-4e73-a0cd-c118d9490a01",
      "pollster": "MDW Communications",
      "start_date": "10/4/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-10",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 2351,
      "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
      "opposition_pct": 42.4,
      "republican_pct": 47.6,
      "margin": -5.200000000000003,
      "url": "https://www.mdwcomm.com/media/florida-statewide-poll-october-2026.html",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 24,
      "raw_weight": 0.826808802972629,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.826808802972629,
      "normalized_weight": 0.06069727776431576,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05641943283642347,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "FL"
    },
    {
      "state": "FL",
      "poll_id": "87803ecd-1309-4c1d-9a0e-731f609ae48e",
      "question_id": "47258a6c-32ee-4fe9-815a-c6ca3ad4d230",
      "pollster": "Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research",
      "start_date": "10/1/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-09",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 716,
      "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
      "opposition_pct": 41.0,
      "republican_pct": 52.0,
      "margin": -11.0,
      "url": "https://www.stetson.edu/artsci/cpor/media/cpor-october-2026-pr.docx",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 25,
      "raw_weight": 0.4786431450677585,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.26420043339652705,
      "normalized_weight": 0.019395351178732523,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.018028398529112883,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "FL"
    },
    {
      "state": "FL",
      "poll_id": "e775512f-7d66-4faa-b573-369e0f127624",
      "question_id": "196ba81c-3b25-4748-ab61-134db9ba9851",
      "pollster": "St. Pete Polls",
      "start_date": "10/5/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-07",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 836,
      "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
      "opposition_pct": 44.9,
      "republican_pct": 46.8,
      "margin": -1.8999999999999986,
      "url": "https://www.stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2026_State_Gov_October7_K7ZU3GA.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 27,
      "raw_weight": 0.4841600460765036,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.28045855952500165,
      "normalized_weight": 0.020588884670392712,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.019137813731096333,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "FL"
    },
    {
      "state": "FL",
      "poll_id": "38af0e14-ef3f-47c6-adc8-f543f24ac35e",
      "question_id": "e2bb179d-b3d5-4522-8562-d62b71b61989",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "9/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-05",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 3812,
      "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
      "opposition_pct": 44.0,
      "republican_pct": 49.0,
      "margin": -5.0,
      "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_fl_20260921_lv.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 29,
      "raw_weight": 0.7010214122078596,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7010214122078596,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0514630362213523,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.047836005544156485,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "FL"
    },
    {
      "state": "FL",
      "poll_id": "d4838e04-358f-42db-a0ce-bb4e52d31c89",
      "question_id": "eb4ae581-25d7-43fd-9123-100333d1e19f",
      "pollster": "Targoz Market Research",
      "start_date": "9/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-04",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 847,
      "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
      "opposition_pct": 42.0,
      "republican_pct": 52.0,
      "margin": -10.0,
      "url": "https://jamesmadison.org/new-jmi-poll-republicans-hold-double-digit-leads-in-key-statewide-races-florida-voters-focused-on-affordability/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 30,
      "raw_weight": 0.4413907514138595,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2860470778316974,
      "normalized_weight": 0.020999146204538115,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.019519160702882486,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "FL"
    },
    {
      "state": "FL",
      "poll_id": "7f8493dd-4729-4532-a244-239a7481b877",
      "question_id": "3d2b0ff7-fc00-4cc5-94ab-b8a73b92977b",
      "pollster": "Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.",
      "start_date": "9/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 625,
      "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
      "opposition_pct": 40.0,
      "republican_pct": 50.0,
      "margin": -10.0,
      "url": "https://floridapolitics.com/archives/823612-mason-dixon-poll-byron-donalds-leads-david-jolly-48-41-with-1-in-4-independents-still-undecided/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 33,
      "raw_weight": 0.3434134079857147,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3434134079857147,
      "normalized_weight": 0.025210494781330056,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02343370031537838,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "FL"
    },
    {
      "state": "FL",
      "poll_id": "b6ae955e-6757-491f-9253-998c3fb5a395",
      "question_id": "584921df-2c0c-4adf-a420-eb36986495d9",
      "pollster": "Change Research",
      "start_date": "9/25/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-27",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1063,
      "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
      "opposition_pct": 47.0,
      "republican_pct": 48.0,
      "margin": -1.0,
      "url": "https://changeresearch.com/research/2026/2026-09-28-florida-aapor-methodology-statement",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 37,
      "raw_weight": 0.1962342584755153,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.1962342584755153,
      "normalized_weight": 0.014405852055202643,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01339055114853586,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "FL"
    },
    {
      "state": "FL",
      "poll_id": "e5366105-3d6b-41f9-8012-1ee8e307d77e",
      "question_id": "90898ec8-a9d4-4e0b-acd1-aa2658f2dd7f",
      "pollster": "Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research",
      "start_date": "9/14/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-21",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 830,
      "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
      "opposition_pct": 40.0,
      "republican_pct": 51.0,
      "margin": -11.0,
      "url": "https://www.stetson.edu/artsci/cpor/media/cpor-sept.-2026-poll-final.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 43,
      "raw_weight": 0.2844910891685384,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.1570327911938184,
      "normalized_weight": 0.01152801338220939,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.010715537841424073,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "FL"
    },
    {
      "state": "FL",
      "poll_id": "5526f998-6a10-466c-af38-ae4552442e13",
      "question_id": "28fa5882-0842-44a3-a342-c374479b2eaa",
      "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
      "start_date": "9/20/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-21",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 600,
      "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
      "opposition_pct": 41.8,
      "republican_pct": 49.3,
      "margin": -7.5,
      "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-florida-u-s-senate-survey-moody-leads-nixon-by-7/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 43,
      "raw_weight": 0.2418829446309729,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.16786425761426751,
      "normalized_weight": 0.012323167622891346,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.011454650910892367,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "FL"
    },
    {
      "state": "FL",
      "poll_id": "1292c8da-3ce1-40f8-8e42-342d50715e67",
      "question_id": "2e467edb-7ce6-4dfe-80cd-9e749fcfac49",
      "pollster": "St. Pete Polls",
      "start_date": "9/15/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-17",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 913,
      "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
      "opposition_pct": 44.8,
      "republican_pct": 45.2,
      "margin": -0.4000000000000057,
      "url": "https://floridapolitics.com/archives/820638-poll-byron-donalds-44-david-jolly-43-in-dead-heat-race-for-florida-governor/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 47,
      "raw_weight": 0.26147246656030587,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.15146270726222855,
      "normalized_weight": 0.011119105143266202,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.010335448786806232,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "FL"
    },
    {
      "state": "FL",
      "poll_id": "7f4eca68-093c-447a-8a67-3560ea1e48ee",
      "question_id": "d866b029-e1d4-44e9-a76f-e6ec29ae8f3e",
      "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
      "start_date": "9/8/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-10",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 733,
      "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
      "opposition_pct": 43.0,
      "republican_pct": 50.4,
      "margin": -7.399999999999999,
      "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/polling/f/new-quantus-polls-moody-leads-in-florida-flanagan-in-minnesota",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 54,
      "raw_weight": 0.1859513049364677,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.1859513049364677,
      "normalized_weight": 0.013650964970119457,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.012688867271355897,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "FL"
    },
    {
      "state": "FL",
      "poll_id": "9d8b464b-d0f1-4fa9-a1c2-f611d332cb71",
      "question_id": "667a2ccb-cdd5-4be2-9e6a-f8383bc38555",
      "pollster": "Change Research",
      "start_date": "9/7/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-09",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1107,
      "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b36ccc4a-4735-40ac-8665-66adb2ac775f",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
      "opposition_pct": 47.0,
      "republican_pct": 47.0,
      "margin": 0.0,
      "url": "https://changeresearch.com/research/2026/2026-09-10-an-emerging-florida-blue-wave",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 55,
      "raw_weight": 0.11054937616478118,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.11054937616478118,
      "normalized_weight": 0.008115595972878972,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.007543622033549952,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "FL"
    },
    {
      "state": "GA",
      "poll_id": "e324d57b-4426-403d-9ca8-23cf08f2c082",
      "question_id": "77bff359-9256-450d-a38b-a13a40d81fc7",
      "pollster": "Research Co.",
      "start_date": "10/31/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-02",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 450,
      "opposition_name": "Jon Ossoff",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "01dbf647-0111-4795-8caf-54b13778f0bb",
      "republican_name": "Mike Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 52.0,
      "republican_pct": 42.0,
      "margin": 10.0,
      "url": "https://researchco.ca/2026/11/02/midterms-2026-two/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 1,
      "raw_weight": 0.8379070991704293,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8379070991704293,
      "normalized_weight": 0.14890633324696323,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.13794890660824993,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "GA"
    },
    {
      "state": "GA",
      "poll_id": "196de13e-1481-439d-9176-e5079f25b5cf",
      "question_id": "f776fb19-8dd8-43d6-8509-3d1ddaa1021b",
      "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
      "start_date": "10/31/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-02",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 2500,
      "opposition_name": "Jon Ossoff",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "01dbf647-0111-4795-8caf-54b13778f0bb",
      "republican_name": "Mike Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 52.7,
      "republican_pct": 46.0,
      "margin": 6.700000000000003,
      "url": "https://jamesmagazinega.com/2026/11/02/48131/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 1,
      "raw_weight": 1.7664632673354264,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7957558417671148,
      "normalized_weight": 0.14141553959228406,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.13100933075705234,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "GA"
    },
    {
      "state": "GA",
      "poll_id": "a89d1cfa-b381-4239-b77c-ac34182fe6d0",
      "question_id": "05e2e360-2d74-44dd-96bc-c12710b8dfdd",
      "pollster": "Echelon Insights",
      "start_date": "10/16/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-23",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 508,
      "opposition_name": "Jon Ossoff",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "01dbf647-0111-4795-8caf-54b13778f0bb",
      "republican_name": "Mike Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 55.0,
      "republican_pct": 40.0,
      "margin": 15.0,
      "url": "https://netchoice.org/netchoice-echelon-insights-poll-voters-rank-ai-regulation-far-behind-cost-of-living-want-one-national-ai-standard/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 11,
      "raw_weight": 0.6399909787711444,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6399909787711444,
      "normalized_weight": 0.1137342195266,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.10536496927646366,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "GA"
    },
    {
      "state": "GA",
      "poll_id": "cdd3b098-9001-4148-9363-4b4bca2ca3d6",
      "question_id": "56c735c1-a50f-4ff9-a148-aaf3a8443b20",
      "pollster": "ActiVote",
      "start_date": "10/6/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-20",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 400,
      "opposition_name": "Jon Ossoff",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "01dbf647-0111-4795-8caf-54b13778f0bb",
      "republican_name": "Mike Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 54.0,
      "republican_pct": 46.0,
      "margin": 8.0,
      "url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/ga-governor/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 14,
      "raw_weight": 0.5143606147390174,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5143606147390174,
      "normalized_weight": 0.09140816826026481,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.08468180359832764,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "GA"
    },
    {
      "state": "GA",
      "poll_id": "ce18d5b0-de43-40b7-ac02-1fcba168d5d0",
      "question_id": "2087a4b1-7ea5-4fc6-a86b-de2b5ce86087",
      "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
      "start_date": "10/15/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-17",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 755,
      "opposition_name": "Jon Ossoff",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "01dbf647-0111-4795-8caf-54b13778f0bb",
      "republican_name": "Mike Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 52.7,
      "republican_pct": 45.4,
      "margin": 7.300000000000004,
      "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/polling/f/georgia-two-weeks-out-ossoff-ahead-down-ballot-near-even",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 17,
      "raw_weight": 0.640039683455705,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.640039683455705,
      "normalized_weight": 0.11374287494436296,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.10537298777635284,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "GA"
    },
    {
      "state": "GA",
      "poll_id": "7d62a66c-24e9-488e-b8a3-3abd834b7208",
      "question_id": "f16bad60-868b-4139-890d-b89ef0bf2155",
      "pollster": "University of Georgia",
      "start_date": "10/7/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-15",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1000,
      "opposition_name": "Jon Ossoff",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "01dbf647-0111-4795-8caf-54b13778f0bb",
      "republican_name": "Mike Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 40.0,
      "margin": 8.0,
      "url": "https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/10/rick-jackson-has-outspent-keisha-lance-bottoms-but-democratic-enthusiasm-has-the-race-knotted/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 19,
      "raw_weight": 0.6895470463747722,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6895470463747722,
      "normalized_weight": 0.12254093846274533,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.1135236366854081,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "GA"
    },
    {
      "state": "GA",
      "poll_id": "7e60bd8f-c327-4ae6-822f-706061debcf6",
      "question_id": "16b04151-4b9f-4feb-856c-6049c36d2427",
      "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
      "start_date": "10/7/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-09",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1101,
      "opposition_name": "Jon Ossoff",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "01dbf647-0111-4795-8caf-54b13778f0bb",
      "republican_name": "Mike Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 51.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.0,
      "margin": 8.0,
      "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/ga-senate-gen-1010/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 25,
      "raw_weight": 0.2967693163037755,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2967693163037755,
      "normalized_weight": 0.05273953491354185,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.04885864165551934,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "GA"
    },
    {
      "state": "GA",
      "poll_id": "f4db5d4b-8e34-4a28-a050-eda62383b2f8",
      "question_id": "3a641086-116f-43a1-9f71-5ca586f98589",
      "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
      "start_date": "9/22/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-23",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1200,
      "opposition_name": "Jon Ossoff",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "01dbf647-0111-4795-8caf-54b13778f0bb",
      "republican_name": "Mike Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 42.0,
      "margin": 8.0,
      "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-georgia-survey-jackson-leads-by-two-in-race-for-governor-ossoff-leads-by-eight-in-senate-contest/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 41,
      "raw_weight": 0.36541785855620185,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.16461332709779536,
      "normalized_weight": 0.029253800291206236,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.027101129121318315,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "GA"
    },
    {
      "state": "GA",
      "poll_id": "6aae867f-1a44-4fe5-8a66-b45166896358",
      "question_id": "bcd4fddd-ab5f-4f28-9aa1-f898b74b34c7",
      "pollster": "Big Data Poll",
      "start_date": "9/21/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-23",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 678,
      "opposition_name": "Jon Ossoff",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "01dbf647-0111-4795-8caf-54b13778f0bb",
      "republican_name": "Mike Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 55.4,
      "republican_pct": 44.6,
      "margin": 10.799999999999997,
      "url": "https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/peach-state-poll-jon-ossoff-opens-up-lead-over-mike-collins-in-georgia/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 41,
      "raw_weight": 0.2746717484812866,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2746717484812866,
      "normalized_weight": 0.048812527013285804,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.045220606695758295,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "GA"
    },
    {
      "state": "GA",
      "poll_id": "0f4bc367-db9c-459a-a5ce-34b7b7b6e9b2",
      "question_id": "14be6d65-b2aa-4932-b16b-6e861a25ef5b",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "9/15/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-18",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 3301,
      "opposition_name": "Jon Ossoff",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "01dbf647-0111-4795-8caf-54b13778f0bb",
      "republican_name": "Mike Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 52.0,
      "republican_pct": 42.0,
      "margin": 10.0,
      "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ga_20260915.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 46,
      "raw_weight": 0.3999818958196589,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3999818958196589,
      "normalized_weight": 0.07108167185913751,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06585105347125592,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "GA"
    },
    {
      "state": "GA",
      "poll_id": "d6876f4e-e4f8-4a30-8d1d-c425e4e597aa",
      "question_id": "3fdcf2d2-d867-46ba-a30f-f37464381098",
      "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
      "start_date": "9/14/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-16",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 645,
      "opposition_name": "Jon Ossoff",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "01dbf647-0111-4795-8caf-54b13778f0bb",
      "republican_name": "Mike Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 49.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.9,
      "margin": 4.100000000000001,
      "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/f/ossoff-leads-collins-by-four-points-in-georgia-senate-race",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 48,
      "raw_weight": 0.21263544999892003,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.21263544999892003,
      "normalized_weight": 0.037787918504336486,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.035007255413571754,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "GA"
    },
    {
      "state": "GA",
      "poll_id": "0e1449be-7a0f-4fc2-beb1-6d95675b7439",
      "question_id": "e4e8615f-9864-482a-9569-ad14a1ffb78d",
      "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
      "start_date": "9/10/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-12",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1091,
      "opposition_name": "Jon Ossoff",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "01dbf647-0111-4795-8caf-54b13778f0bb",
      "republican_name": "Mike Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 49.4,
      "republican_pct": 42.8,
      "margin": 6.600000000000001,
      "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/GA-General-Full-Report-0912.pdf",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 52,
      "raw_weight": 0.121171126690719,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.121171126690719,
      "normalized_weight": 0.021533590285583975,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01994901875879025,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "GA"
    },
    {
      "state": "GA",
      "poll_id": "36116a64-5101-4c69-9a3d-f1d3c4c6a83d",
      "question_id": "c953f8f7-c3dd-4bd5-ac8b-230254a27ade",
      "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
      "start_date": "8/16/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-17",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 800,
      "opposition_name": "Jon Ossoff",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "01dbf647-0111-4795-8caf-54b13778f0bb",
      "republican_name": "Mike Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 50.1,
      "republican_pct": 42.6,
      "margin": 7.5,
      "url": "https://jamesmagazinega.com/2026/08/18/exclusive-jmo-insideradvantage-georgia-survey-ossoff-leads-jackson-lance-bottoms-tied/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 78,
      "raw_weight": 0.0879747326750979,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.03963083113508988,
      "normalized_weight": 0.007042883099687769,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.006524625257948615,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "GA"
    },
    {
      "state": "ID",
      "poll_id": "b26b343b-ffaa-401a-84c6-cf5b73894075",
      "question_id": "b353ff81-0e30-4e5e-9491-5e36271b6699",
      "pollster": "VoteNexus",
      "start_date": "10/21/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-22",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 700,
      "opposition_name": "Todd Achilles",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "IND",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "270b752e-1222-4fa7-9907-6ee2cd668024",
      "republican_name": "James Risch",
      "opposition_pct": 43.0,
      "republican_pct": 49.0,
      "margin": -6.0,
      "url": "https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZWt7_rFQzMxjeueMCX4GoFyqIe9jRk8X/view",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 12,
      "raw_weight": 0.36343458976614545,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.36343458976614545,
      "normalized_weight": 0.4465567525457122,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.4465567525457122,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ID"
    },
    {
      "state": "ID",
      "poll_id": "dd4b17a6-9b7b-4ac4-9a29-0f68deee76c6",
      "question_id": "250bc61c-99e4-45ee-aead-903bc511258f",
      "pollster": "Peak Insights",
      "start_date": "10/13/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-15",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 500,
      "opposition_name": "Todd Achilles",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "IND",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "270b752e-1222-4fa7-9907-6ee2cd668024",
      "republican_name": "James Risch",
      "opposition_pct": 27.0,
      "republican_pct": 54.0,
      "margin": -27.0,
      "url": "https://senatorrisch.com/new-poll-senator-risch-continues-to-lead/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 19,
      "raw_weight": 0.24379169621937807,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.24379169621937807,
      "normalized_weight": 0.2995499911865499,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.2995499911865499,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ID"
    },
    {
      "state": "ID",
      "poll_id": "a5b85a2d-5293-46f9-ba57-2e08057f636a",
      "question_id": "a327a6a6-1cb2-4de5-9009-37d5f3eadb3c",
      "pollster": "Peak Insights",
      "start_date": "9/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-30",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 500,
      "opposition_name": "Todd Achilles",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "IND",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "270b752e-1222-4fa7-9907-6ee2cd668024",
      "republican_name": "James Risch",
      "opposition_pct": 24.0,
      "republican_pct": 49.0,
      "margin": -25.0,
      "url": "https://x.com/JacobRubashkin/status/2106137210185462099",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 34,
      "raw_weight": 0.14859270323654575,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.14859270323654575,
      "normalized_weight": 0.18257776468661732,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.18257776468661732,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ID"
    },
    {
      "state": "ID",
      "poll_id": "abb4eb63-e7f7-4b77-a046-58a5bc930e16",
      "question_id": "035a7d83-dc19-4537-8426-b9c67b54ecf1",
      "pollster": "Peak Insights",
      "start_date": "8/11/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-13",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 500,
      "opposition_name": "Todd Achilles",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "IND",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "270b752e-1222-4fa7-9907-6ee2cd668024",
      "republican_name": "James Risch",
      "opposition_pct": 18.0,
      "republican_pct": 52.0,
      "margin": -34.0,
      "url": "https://x.com/JacobRubashkin/status/2088415795764228191/photo/1",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 82,
      "raw_weight": 0.03047396202742226,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.03047396202742226,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03744374889831874,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03744374889831874,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ID"
    },
    {
      "state": "ID",
      "poll_id": "e2084fdb-8a8e-4f5a-afe6-dee4d96c8b9c",
      "question_id": "8798aaac-e15b-4a90-b9b5-87d1f1f27e13",
      "pollster": "The Bullfinch Group",
      "start_date": "8/4/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-07",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 608,
      "opposition_name": "Todd Achilles",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "IND",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "270b752e-1222-4fa7-9907-6ee2cd668024",
      "republican_name": "James Risch",
      "opposition_pct": 30.0,
      "republican_pct": 34.0,
      "margin": -4.0,
      "url": "https://www.thebullfinchgroup.com/post/for-immediate-release-independent-todd-achilles-within-4-points-among-likely-voters",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 88,
      "raw_weight": 0.02756684975965824,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.02756684975965824,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03387174268280185,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03387174268280185,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ID"
    },
    {
      "state": "IL",
      "poll_id": "5b734364-d6c9-4d6d-9585-4deac2cc6890",
      "question_id": "683f2b95-c5c1-40e8-ae1b-5b6c3cd1404f",
      "pollster": "Research Co.",
      "start_date": "10/31/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-02",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 450,
      "opposition_name": "Juliana Stratton",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "bc33e464-21a9-4303-8a85-e96b7b215c9b",
      "republican_name": "Don Tracy",
      "opposition_pct": 53.0,
      "republican_pct": 41.0,
      "margin": 12.0,
      "url": "https://researchco.ca/2026/11/02/midterms-2026-two/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 1,
      "raw_weight": 0.8379070991704293,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8379070991704293,
      "normalized_weight": 0.3869213733043147,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.3536163566954184,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IL"
    },
    {
      "state": "IL",
      "poll_id": "a2abf79d-4ebe-451a-9fa7-aeaa27e1ee2d",
      "question_id": "63eaba5e-79e7-4d71-a1a5-b321a953daa8",
      "pollster": "ActiVote",
      "start_date": "10/21/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-30",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 400,
      "opposition_name": "Juliana Stratton",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "bc33e464-21a9-4303-8a85-e96b7b215c9b",
      "republican_name": "Don Tracy",
      "opposition_pct": 55.6,
      "republican_pct": 44.4,
      "margin": 11.200000000000003,
      "url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/il-u-s-senate/2026-10-30/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 4,
      "raw_weight": 0.7155093670575968,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5817764297428978,
      "normalized_weight": 0.2686476046987373,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.24552323485578587,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IL"
    },
    {
      "state": "IL",
      "poll_id": "202cde3e-e29c-4102-b9e9-b80eed0b2752",
      "question_id": "56860ec3-aece-4f7c-ac5d-e934b6bb7099",
      "pollster": "ActiVote",
      "start_date": "9/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-20",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 400,
      "opposition_name": "Juliana Stratton",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "bc33e464-21a9-4303-8a85-e96b7b215c9b",
      "republican_name": "Don Tracy",
      "opposition_pct": 58.5,
      "republican_pct": 41.5,
      "margin": 17.0,
      "url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/il-u-s-senate/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 14,
      "raw_weight": 0.5143606147390174,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.41822357025710233,
      "normalized_weight": 0.1931236032160621,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.1765001100299618,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IL"
    },
    {
      "state": "IL",
      "poll_id": "4cb055d5-c17c-41ab-b123-ea5dee5a1b42",
      "question_id": "81acd091-4a0d-411a-a596-67e5c5a6aa86",
      "pollster": "Public Policy Polling",
      "start_date": "9/30/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-01",
      "population": "rv",
      "sample_size": 569,
      "opposition_name": "Juliana Stratton",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "bc33e464-21a9-4303-8a85-e96b7b215c9b",
      "republican_name": "Don Tracy",
      "opposition_pct": 49.0,
      "republican_pct": 36.0,
      "margin": 13.0,
      "url": "https://www.cnwmedia.com/article/cnw-poll-pritzker-leads-bailey-by-20-points-democrats-ahead-in-four-other-statewide-races",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 33,
      "raw_weight": 0.32766750327318694,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.32766750327318694,
      "normalized_weight": 0.151307418780886,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.13828333574171203,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IL"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "bbfbc9c9-b73c-4db5-ae91-458ccde4c6ec",
      "question_id": "0e881301-a827-4619-8aeb-a8d29024e7d5",
      "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
      "start_date": "10/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1219,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 50.5,
      "republican_pct": 46.4,
      "margin": 4.100000000000001,
      "url": "https://pollstergraph.com/poll/exclusive-atlas-us-ia-20261101-governor",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 1.3343098874266506,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
      "normalized_weight": 0.09025060670426605,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.08382329731117034,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "97e6dede-92cf-4a71-9cb3-3031e822dbee",
      "question_id": "d4215ceb-bfa7-48d0-af75-026d4e1bc581",
      "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
      "start_date": "10/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 705,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 47.6,
      "republican_pct": 46.9,
      "margin": 0.7000000000000028,
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/11/01/polls/times-siena-poll-crosstabs.html",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 1.0147274523685212,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7500494754065379,
      "normalized_weight": 0.06769242021365651,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06287162017508958,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "00eec46b-20c2-48d9-abfd-65e700524acb",
      "question_id": "e8c46c76-a6f6-41a1-a794-17d445b74485",
      "pollster": "GrayHouse",
      "start_date": "10/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-31",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 601,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 46.0,
      "republican_pct": 48.0,
      "margin": -2.0,
      "url": "https://www.grayhouse.com/post/grayhouse-poll-hinson-leads-in-iowa-by-2",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 3,
      "raw_weight": 0.9064781197585434,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.9064781197585434,
      "normalized_weight": 0.08181020027235088,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.07598398493859107,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "4be09574-d2f7-41cc-804a-911ff78f94cd",
      "question_id": "d36138b2-c2b8-4c7a-babd-30b84b4db84c",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "10/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-29",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 2016,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 49.0,
      "margin": 1.0,
      "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ia_20261026_lv.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 5,
      "raw_weight": 1.5479807801590098,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5693725051243602,
      "normalized_weight": 0.05138621402820134,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.04772668077784511,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "0d52e74a-4d26-4572-8b02-034b624ede40",
      "question_id": "f1fe613f-f0e6-48e0-ae6e-24facfaddda7",
      "pollster": "co/efficient",
      "start_date": "10/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-28",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1020,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 46.0,
      "republican_pct": 48.0,
      "margin": -2.0,
      "url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/ia/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 6,
      "raw_weight": 1.0695864451915529,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5238124735147733,
      "normalized_weight": 0.04727439353397058,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.04390768870272839,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "5fed9be9-1c44-4040-a61b-00465f70db64",
      "question_id": "b8d0a704-ecbe-420c-b927-2bcce5bcc78e",
      "pollster": "Echelon Insights",
      "start_date": "10/16/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-23",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 403,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 45.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.0,
      "margin": 2.0,
      "url": "https://netchoice.org/netchoice-echelon-insights-poll-voters-rank-ai-regulation-far-behind-cost-of-living-want-one-national-ai-standard/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 11,
      "raw_weight": 0.5700258084399398,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5700258084399398,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0514451750487943,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.04778144281590131,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "ddfffb93-53c9-4d2e-94f2-0aac6b754e1c",
      "question_id": "47cd4a04-bf1b-4438-9600-9d5b76f31dd8",
      "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
      "start_date": "10/21/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-22",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1200,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 45.5,
      "republican_pct": 47.0,
      "margin": -1.5,
      "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-senate-surveys-mi-el-sayed-47-rogers-46-ia-hinson-47-turek-45-oh-brown-47-husted-44/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 12,
      "raw_weight": 0.9516951530106197,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7225614997747952,
      "normalized_weight": 0.06521161373581966,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06056748742122781,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "714e6be6-64cd-419c-a163-9bd660f5c5f7",
      "question_id": "06aac0e1-94c2-4b05-9bbb-9d820cdfadd4",
      "pollster": "co/efficient",
      "start_date": "10/15/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-19",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 863,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 45.0,
      "republican_pct": 48.0,
      "margin": -3.0,
      "url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/ia/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 15,
      "raw_weight": 0.730984801348264,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.35798785466785327,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03230862107653237,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.030007722375611504,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "b47129f8-00ec-4579-a7f4-09b3d64dd41b",
      "question_id": "6900d3cf-65c1-4fe7-8176-789612ef9fa4",
      "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
      "start_date": "10/13/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-15",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1094,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 44.2,
      "republican_pct": 45.9,
      "margin": -1.6999999999999957,
      "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/ia-senate-gen-1017/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 19,
      "raw_weight": 0.36061398728613,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.36061398728613,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03254563113861771,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.030227853470851877,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "3f0c3827-bc3f-49af-8870-5e4d81e49468",
      "question_id": "e2ec16ce-21f1-42b8-ad42-fe5ea07621cb",
      "pollster": "New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group",
      "start_date": "10/9/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-13",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 602,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 46.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": 2.0,
      "url": "https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/survey-research/battleground-district-project/senate-battleground-district-project-october",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 21,
      "raw_weight": 0.5008326400438906,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5008326400438906,
      "normalized_weight": 0.045200449621260415,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0419814432895374,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "022946f1-22b5-4b48-9ccd-8ca5bde7ff14",
      "question_id": "7a6c5501-c247-43dc-85a1-e638387de150",
      "pollster": "National Public Affairs",
      "start_date": "10/8/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-12",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 678,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 47.0,
      "republican_pct": 48.0,
      "margin": -1.0,
      "url": "https://backend.natpublicaffairs.com/media/Iowa_General_Election_Memo_101526.3.pdf",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 22,
      "raw_weight": 0.2571250971040863,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2571250971040863,
      "normalized_weight": 0.02320569601253711,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.021553073460719375,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "ed54f7fc-9dc3-4a6b-b04c-4653389d7c9b",
      "question_id": "6970e0ae-edc4-492e-ae92-e715f2bba05b",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "10/6/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-12",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 2245,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 47.0,
      "republican_pct": 46.0,
      "margin": 1.0,
      "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ia_20261006_lv.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 22,
      "raw_weight": 0.8832316336677132,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.32486695849984004,
      "normalized_weight": 0.029319440102780182,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.027231419648907733,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "c74bf5bc-f7c1-4c70-8c51-d954ded837fc",
      "question_id": "f98c9121-3e56-439d-9062-ddb5b96dfb05",
      "pollster": "Marist University",
      "start_date": "10/8/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-11",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1100,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 45.0,
      "margin": 3.0,
      "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/2026-midterm-elections-in-iowa-october-2026/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 23,
      "raw_weight": 0.6337547075795167,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6337547075795167,
      "normalized_weight": 0.05719674686073609,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05312340927579165,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "f4565aea-a1df-4f89-9dfa-75c19a146e7c",
      "question_id": "fc072182-5e11-4d7f-a9fc-a2c600820502",
      "pollster": "Emerson College",
      "start_date": "10/5/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-06",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 650,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 45.0,
      "republican_pct": 46.6,
      "margin": -1.6000000000000014,
      "url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/iowa-2026-poll-u-s-senate-race-tightens-sand-maintains-edge-for-governor/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 28,
      "raw_weight": 0.41305484967487155,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.41305484967487155,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03727845078529657,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.034623619470117536,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "50b4c2bf-e3d4-4ac1-bb5d-7db0280110e4",
      "question_id": "1b020382-ae3c-4835-9bc5-600bc8a31fee",
      "pollster": "CNN/SSRS",
      "start_date": "9/29/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-05",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 801,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 43.0,
      "republican_pct": 45.0,
      "margin": -2.0,
      "url": "https://edition.cnn.com/2026/10/08/politics/cnn-polls-ohio-iowa-senate-governor-midterms",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 29,
      "raw_weight": 0.44364188672818944,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.44364188672818944,
      "normalized_weight": 0.04003894943664437,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03718752577090558,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "26a91d1a-7c49-496c-8339-a4e347443e7c",
      "question_id": "941eb0b3-778d-4a79-a18a-c4a8938188f7",
      "pollster": "Suffolk University",
      "start_date": "10/1/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-04",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 500,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.6,
      "margin": 4.399999999999999,
      "url": "https://www.suffolk.edu/academics/research-at-suffolk/political-research-center/polls/other-states#collapse-October-7-2026-Iowa-Governor-and-US-Senate-and-Bellwether",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 30,
      "raw_weight": 0.3391302468684003,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3391302468684003,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03060671053164065,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.028427015510460518,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "b68ba449-48cd-4838-90aa-7d930fb4cead",
      "question_id": "777d5486-d8d7-4475-8a45-5e5d788709bb",
      "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
      "start_date": "9/22/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 606,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 46.96,
      "republican_pct": 47.83,
      "margin": -0.8699999999999974,
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/03/polls/times-siena-iowa-poll-crosstabs.html",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 33,
      "raw_weight": 0.3381532383599457,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.24995052459346212,
      "normalized_weight": 0.022558186490609526,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02095167713608077,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "e8c16f13-5ff3-4805-999c-018490b16211",
      "question_id": "d011b056-6d49-4369-8157-e82765e28017",
      "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
      "start_date": "9/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-29",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 738,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 48.8,
      "republican_pct": 51.2,
      "margin": -2.4000000000000057,
      "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/f/quantus-insights-hinson-holds-narrow-edge-in-iowa-senate-race",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 35,
      "raw_weight": 0.34933000997631924,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.34933000997631924,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03152724534037012,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.029281993285959113,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "552fee7f-3f21-450d-bd89-a618fa6a04c2",
      "question_id": "4e339ba4-9751-48fd-b341-340b6ccd9990",
      "pollster": "Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research",
      "start_date": "9/24/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-28",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1008,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 49.0,
      "republican_pct": 47.0,
      "margin": 2.0,
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-turek-hinson-close-iowa-senate-race",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 36,
      "raw_weight": 0.39500557003589143,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.39500557003589143,
      "normalized_weight": 0.035649492347303656,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03311066933668685,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "88eb5386-5920-4931-bf47-30dd37462322",
      "question_id": "95784b09-7945-45f9-8f07-9cef31c93714",
      "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
      "start_date": "9/22/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-23",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1200,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 47.4,
      "republican_pct": 45.7,
      "margin": 1.6999999999999957,
      "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/ia-topline-tabs/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 41,
      "raw_weight": 0.36541785855620185,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.27743850022520483,
      "normalized_weight": 0.02503899296844639,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.023255809889942546,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "b37898ae-7ed5-485f-805b-db8d700cda68",
      "question_id": "8a39f84a-4da7-44ef-8398-1f8154a5c8e1",
      "pollster": "Marist University",
      "start_date": "9/17/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-20",
      "population": "rv",
      "sample_size": 1050,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 42.0,
      "margin": 8.0,
      "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/2026-midterm-elections-in-iowa-september-2026/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 44,
      "raw_weight": 0.30959184305093124,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.30959184305093124,
      "normalized_weight": 0.027940851666038456,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0259510091051714,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "6cdc2339-d8cc-4430-9faa-6cc14593be3b",
      "question_id": "195b4db7-1c76-4a6e-823e-939e4b189b39",
      "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
      "start_date": "9/16/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-18",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1089,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 42.1,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": -1.8999999999999986,
      "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/ia-senate-0918/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 46,
      "raw_weight": 0.14757380695562936,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.14757380695562936,
      "normalized_weight": 0.013318625611403786,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.012370123095782979,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "efaddaa3-267a-497a-9cc4-a840834841aa",
      "question_id": "b5203d5a-6dcd-4a1d-b566-8e5fb30c3e4e",
      "pollster": "co/efficient",
      "start_date": "9/14/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-16",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 831,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 42.0,
      "republican_pct": 46.0,
      "margin": -4.0,
      "url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/ia/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 48,
      "raw_weight": 0.24135501385380248,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.11819967181737347,
      "normalized_weight": 0.010667592093763093,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.00990788623283046,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "3e3eb534-bebb-49dd-9c2a-0297381037f5",
      "question_id": "89ad2f64-2dc7-45a4-9e0d-72f74db5a7b0",
      "pollster": "Cygnal Political",
      "start_date": "9/9/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-11",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 500,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 42.9,
      "republican_pct": 42.9,
      "margin": 0.0,
      "url": "https://itrfoundation.org/new-poll-iowa-voters-support-supermajority-requirement-to-raise-income-taxes/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 53,
      "raw_weight": 0.07936646027404516,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.07936646027404516,
      "normalized_weight": 0.007162871191702605,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.006652758396086479,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "35aeda0e-b9e6-4fcd-9284-7518c4b38581",
      "question_id": "752a8d42-8ede-4847-afcc-9a51f9e491fc",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "9/3/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-08",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 2127,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 45.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.0,
      "margin": 2.0,
      "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/iowa_election_20260903.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 56,
      "raw_weight": 0.28753632487625586,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.10576053637579966,
      "normalized_weight": 0.009544952573284518,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.008865196884417502,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "499bff96-0834-41dc-bc89-d2dd01eacac1",
      "question_id": "ffa6f33b-3f61-4b91-86d4-7727d0348e28",
      "pollster": "Emerson College",
      "start_date": "8/31/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 750,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 45.05,
      "republican_pct": 49.47,
      "margin": -4.420000000000002,
      "url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/iowa-2026-poll-hinson-leads-turek/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 63,
      "raw_weight": 0.1397542485937369,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.1397542485937369,
      "normalized_weight": 0.012612905725083574,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.011714661930372018,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "da7271f6-a289-40b8-bd8f-dcf49de9142e",
      "question_id": "777346dd-ae6e-41e8-980f-7fdf5a60d48b",
      "pollster": "Global Strategy Group",
      "start_date": "8/27/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-31",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 800,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 46.0,
      "republican_pct": 42.0,
      "margin": 4.0,
      "url": "https://www.semafor.com/article/09/09/2026/democratic-turek-holds-narrow-lead-in-iowa-senate-race-internal-polling-shows",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 64,
      "raw_weight": 0.06982559159753576,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.06982559159753576,
      "normalized_weight": 0.006301802005161904,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.005853011324408599,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "4a8cbf1d-25af-407c-afde-6ed939b8a7b8",
      "question_id": "8001aa00-3ab0-4387-b34a-2d3de2be4c9f",
      "pollster": "Abacus Data",
      "start_date": "8/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-28",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 323,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 41.0,
      "margin": 7.0,
      "url": "https://abacusdata.ca/the-trade-war-next-door-what-american-voters-think-about-tariffs-canada-and-the-battle-for-the-u-s-senate/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 67,
      "raw_weight": 0.08037048742049747,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.08037048742049747,
      "normalized_weight": 0.007253485250817479,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0067369192620920365,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "IA",
      "poll_id": "bfa1e330-e1e0-4fb7-9be9-1ee513cb362e",
      "question_id": "ae0fa27a-89cf-4c5d-9285-460e5ec27a36",
      "pollster": "Suffolk University",
      "start_date": "8/20/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-23",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 500,
      "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a3227d39-8bf4-4472-9389-91c4fc6cd89c",
      "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
      "opposition_pct": 40.8,
      "republican_pct": 45.4,
      "margin": -4.600000000000001,
      "url": "https://www.suffolk.edu/academics/research-at-suffolk/political-research-center/polls/other-states#collapse-August-26-2026-Iowa-Governor-and-US-Senate-General-Election",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 72,
      "raw_weight": 0.08478256171710007,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.08478256171710007,
      "normalized_weight": 0.007651677632910161,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0071067538776151285,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "IA"
    },
    {
      "state": "KS",
      "poll_id": "ee8d2d9a-9050-4dde-8ff3-225b1609c81e",
      "question_id": "17f5a5c0-ece7-4555-be7e-baf9dede3866",
      "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
      "start_date": "10/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 2038,
      "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
      "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
      "opposition_pct": 51.9,
      "republican_pct": 44.9,
      "margin": 7.0,
      "url": "https://pollstergraph.com/poll/exclusive-atlas-us-ks-20261101-senate",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 1.7091093467421696,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
      "normalized_weight": 0.11659663160505526,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.10809006383721753,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "KS"
    },
    {
      "state": "KS",
      "poll_id": "e5e20345-3b79-49b1-bd66-d5e7bfda599d",
      "question_id": "07291bee-5ea2-4d79-afff-618eeab48de9",
      "pollster": "Survey 160",
      "start_date": "10/27/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1267,
      "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
      "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": 6.0,
      "url": "https://www.survey160.com/methodological-research-blog/survey-160-pre-election-surveys-in-four-states",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 1.36032650121338,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
      "normalized_weight": 0.11659663160505526,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.10809006383721753,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "KS"
    },
    {
      "state": "KS",
      "poll_id": "488d5c04-cc06-4cf9-a292-24dca14264b6",
      "question_id": "c3889839-1b75-41b1-9f15-6681453f8428",
      "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
      "start_date": "10/27/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 736,
      "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
      "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
      "opposition_pct": 49.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.9,
      "margin": 5.100000000000001,
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/11/01/polls/times-siena-poll-crosstabs.html",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 1.0367970637288149,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7602818033281149,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0886462973386753,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.08217890865601081,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "KS"
    },
    {
      "state": "KS",
      "poll_id": "d12ca396-9967-4c5a-b3af-5754f8a2ff05",
      "question_id": "e1b45bb5-0d9f-4215-bc23-0a30e5356d52",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "10/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-29",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 2086,
      "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
      "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 49.0,
      "margin": 1.0,
      "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ks_20261026_lv.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 5,
      "raw_weight": 1.5479807801590098,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6953337889788204,
      "normalized_weight": 0.08107357763611076,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.07515867363889504,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "KS"
    },
    {
      "state": "KS",
      "poll_id": "03a5f4fe-8984-49ba-b8ce-2044bab54108",
      "question_id": "83bd4e5f-7776-44ec-8285-e157b843da0a",
      "pollster": "Emerson College",
      "start_date": "10/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-28",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 800,
      "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
      "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
      "opposition_pct": 49.5,
      "republican_pct": 47.1,
      "margin": 2.3999999999999986,
      "url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2026-kansas-poll-hamilton-maintains-edge-over-marshall/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 6,
      "raw_weight": 0.9472416772335545,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8051131388410013,
      "normalized_weight": 0.09387348004983395,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.08702473057350642,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "KS"
    },
    {
      "state": "KS",
      "poll_id": "57631c63-27a4-4cb7-adcb-99233e0056d8",
      "question_id": "dafb371e-1151-4a4b-8704-8529f8a5ac93",
      "pollster": "The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government",
      "start_date": "10/22/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-26",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 801,
      "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
      "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
      "opposition_pct": 52.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.0,
      "margin": 9.0,
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/tablet/2026/10/30/oct-22-26-2026-washington-post-schar-school-kansas-poll/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 8,
      "raw_weight": 0.8872837734563789,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8872837734563789,
      "normalized_weight": 0.10345429926283672,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.09590655971462726,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "KS"
    },
    {
      "state": "KS",
      "poll_id": "cc6fe4a3-b999-4be6-9fd5-388faf9938b1",
      "question_id": "cb68d6dc-7057-485e-833b-30c3e5026cd3",
      "pollster": "CNN/SSRS",
      "start_date": "10/20/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-26",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 838,
      "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
      "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
      "opposition_pct": 49.0,
      "republican_pct": 45.0,
      "margin": 4.0,
      "url": "https://edition.cnn.com/2026/10/29/politics/cnn-polls-michigan-maine-texas-kansas-senate-races-midterms-vis",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 8,
      "raw_weight": 0.9075452551507608,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.9075452551507608,
      "normalized_weight": 0.10581671977972915,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.09809662456440961,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "KS"
    },
    {
      "state": "KS",
      "poll_id": "25dc3468-add3-4d3e-969a-136fbc0cf6bd",
      "question_id": "7e295969-0c81-4996-9535-d3555a2e2fb5",
      "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
      "start_date": "10/13/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-14",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1200,
      "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
      "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
      "opposition_pct": 46.6,
      "republican_pct": 47.7,
      "margin": -1.1000000000000014,
      "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-senate-surveys-texas-paxton-49-talarico-48-kansas-marshall-48-hamilton-47-maine-jackson-49-collins-47/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 20,
      "raw_weight": 0.7308357171124036,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5329591454925267,
      "normalized_weight": 0.062141241147537184,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.057607588058916116,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "KS"
    },
    {
      "state": "KS",
      "poll_id": "5dde9606-4591-429b-9843-a121714b0a10",
      "question_id": "674ac6cf-b8e6-407a-a19c-354466ca3ccd",
      "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
      "start_date": "10/9/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-10",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1200,
      "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
      "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
      "opposition_pct": 47.5,
      "republican_pct": 46.7,
      "margin": 0.7999999999999972,
      "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-u-s-senate-surveys-alaska-ranks-choice-peltola-50-sullivan-48-kansas-hamilton-48-marshall-47-michigan-el-sayed-48-rogers-46/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 24,
      "raw_weight": 0.6404433448821364,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.46704085450747324,
      "normalized_weight": 0.05445539045751807,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.050482475778301415,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "KS"
    },
    {
      "state": "KS",
      "poll_id": "83a74e52-1bb7-4aa4-8d8c-6c58999faa29",
      "question_id": "a5624c69-c101-4fb6-951c-199b3a658c3e",
      "pollster": "GBAO",
      "start_date": "9/30/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-04",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 600,
      "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
      "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
      "opposition_pct": 49.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": 5.0,
      "url": "https://x.com/sambbenson/status/2107792740259914148",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 30,
      "raw_weight": 0.18574928614211855,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.18574928614211855,
      "normalized_weight": 0.021657741087214594,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02007765219681918,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "KS"
    },
    {
      "state": "KS",
      "poll_id": "d25ef4d2-1ed1-441e-9934-82e258d3931e",
      "question_id": "8bde19c1-0c6a-406d-b961-f44c53d4a2da",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "9/24/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-04",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 2253,
      "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
      "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 45.0,
      "margin": 3.0,
      "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ks_20260921_lv.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 30,
      "raw_weight": 0.6782604937368006,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3046662110211796,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03552305396894451,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03293139019832249,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "KS"
    },
    {
      "state": "KS",
      "poll_id": "b53ee011-b0ec-4d53-b00c-4c9309bc24d6",
      "question_id": "889de9a4-3239-4fb6-b6bf-7a6004733535",
      "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
      "start_date": "9/29/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1095,
      "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
      "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
      "opposition_pct": 44.4,
      "republican_pct": 43.5,
      "margin": 0.8999999999999986,
      "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/ks-senate-general-1001/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 33,
      "raw_weight": 0.2272763796076287,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2272763796076287,
      "normalized_weight": 0.026499660305641378,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.024566318380480272,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "KS"
    },
    {
      "state": "KS",
      "poll_id": "be8c4cbb-f0fa-41c9-860b-2f425d3e4829",
      "question_id": "f80026a3-26be-4a94-8b93-10e314fce54b",
      "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
      "start_date": "9/22/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-30",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 605,
      "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
      "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
      "opposition_pct": 46.39,
      "republican_pct": 46.67,
      "margin": -0.28000000000000114,
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/03/polls/times-siena-kansas-poll-crosstabs.html",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 34,
      "raw_weight": 0.3269039471204006,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.239718196671885,
      "normalized_weight": 0.02795033426637996,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.025911155181206718,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "KS"
    },
    {
      "state": "KS",
      "poll_id": "7a2a5a88-c265-4ab1-a1b3-80926e34f23b",
      "question_id": "a98485ac-259f-45a1-823c-a2c361cb7a57",
      "pollster": "Global Strategy Group",
      "start_date": "9/13/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-16",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 800,
      "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
      "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
      "opposition_pct": 49.0,
      "republican_pct": 47.0,
      "margin": 2.0,
      "url": "https://www.washingtonsun.com/newsletters/they-love-stonks",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 48,
      "raw_weight": 0.11840520965419432,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.11840520965419432,
      "normalized_weight": 0.013805648610169429,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01279842667018099,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "KS"
    },
    {
      "state": "KS",
      "poll_id": "8b579ddd-2169-412e-8ce9-074cc2643108",
      "question_id": "8c872235-9531-44b6-ad7e-48d891628dba",
      "pollster": "Emerson College",
      "start_date": "9/15/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-16",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 750,
      "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
      "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
      "opposition_pct": 44.75,
      "republican_pct": 43.3,
      "margin": 1.4500000000000028,
      "url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/kansas-2026/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 48,
      "raw_weight": 0.22929070254744616,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.19488686115899867,
      "normalized_weight": 0.02272315155522132,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.021065333263711118,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "KS"
    },
    {
      "state": "KS",
      "poll_id": "8f9d28d7-4b18-4a97-b827-bd29bb7d211a",
      "question_id": "6d56ec46-f347-4bdf-b651-ddf7ec3a41cd",
      "pollster": "co/efficient",
      "start_date": "9/8/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-10",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 915,
      "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
      "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
      "opposition_pct": 44.0,
      "republican_pct": 49.0,
      "margin": -5.0,
      "url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/ks/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 54,
      "raw_weight": 0.20775801639185143,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.20775801639185143,
      "normalized_weight": 0.024223884900237736,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.022456577254488908,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "KS"
    },
    {
      "state": "KS",
      "poll_id": "3a7ff75c-d551-4cbd-aadc-b455292f1ada",
      "question_id": "4e5cc697-380c-4c35-9625-27e4ff83d0bb",
      "pollster": "Global Strategy Group",
      "start_date": "8/12/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-16",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 800,
      "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f2d2510d-5dfe-41c1-902e-c09ed183166b",
      "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
      "opposition_pct": 44.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.0,
      "margin": 1.0,
      "url": "https://www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-digest-massachusetts-could",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 79,
      "raw_weight": 0.04255917478515071,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.04255917478515071,
      "normalized_weight": 0.004962256423839374,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.004600223919386239,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "KS"
    },
    {
      "state": "KY",
      "poll_id": "8e8d7685-88cb-4337-ae68-848158d5d113",
      "question_id": "84c909b8-7800-40a9-ad74-0ddcd9d08ef8",
      "pollster": "Global Strategy Group",
      "start_date": "8/24/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-27",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 600,
      "opposition_name": "Charles Booker",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "afb7e4af-f8c0-49f4-9bed-0d2d4a234c22",
      "republican_name": "Andy Barr",
      "opposition_pct": 40.0,
      "republican_pct": 49.0,
      "margin": -9.0,
      "url": "https://fox56news.com/news/kentucky/new-poll-shows-charles-booker-trailing-just-behind-andy-barr-in-race-for-senate/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 68,
      "raw_weight": 0.052991499492345946,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.052991499492345946,
      "normalized_weight": 1.0,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.863870865699537,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "KY"
    },
    {
      "state": "LA",
      "poll_id": "8336d95c-e120-482d-ba1c-42b88a343483",
      "question_id": "991ffdf0-cfe0-44eb-8299-13c908b761a7",
      "pollster": "Hart Research Associates",
      "start_date": "10/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-29",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 502,
      "opposition_name": "Jamie Davis",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "fa6b2ecd-5ecc-4d0c-b1fc-65c92e59bd7c",
      "republican_name": "Julia Letlow",
      "opposition_pct": 45.0,
      "republican_pct": 45.0,
      "margin": 0.0,
      "url": "https://www.perdidostreet.news/p/new-poll-shows-toss-up-in-louisiana-senate-contest-as-turnout-in-early-vote-buoys-democrats-hopes-of",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 5,
      "raw_weight": 0.38776841298356346,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.38776841298356346,
      "normalized_weight": 0.789560183293221,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.6982591654485993,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "LA"
    },
    {
      "state": "LA",
      "poll_id": "fd9a2472-db8c-46ca-87c5-5459d7092293",
      "question_id": "3cfaf969-9731-4ab1-a637-52ec0c0c327a",
      "pollster": "Hart Research Associates",
      "start_date": "9/17/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-19",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 500,
      "opposition_name": "Jamie Davis",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "fa6b2ecd-5ecc-4d0c-b1fc-65c92e59bd7c",
      "republican_name": "Julia Letlow",
      "opposition_pct": 44.0,
      "republican_pct": 48.0,
      "margin": -4.0,
      "url": "https://bsky.app/profile/deecherrywriter.bsky.social/post/3mw7hmiyunc2g",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 45,
      "raw_weight": 0.10335110037157863,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.10335110037157863,
      "normalized_weight": 0.21043981670677905,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.1861055482533897,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "LA"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "dde77adc-e56c-41eb-84ae-188896f36496",
      "question_id": "7cfe8bdb-d5fa-4c38-854d-d79b85c23981",
      "pollster": "Emerson College",
      "start_date": "10/31/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 600,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 49.4,
      "republican_pct": 50.6,
      "margin": -1.2000000000000028,
      "url": "https://pollvault.substack.com/p/new-poll-vault-emerson-senate-and",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 0.9361177424536049,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.9361177424536049,
      "normalized_weight": 0.06451230031673594,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05995486475224841,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "67dd80f7-8245-428f-b578-85171441c671",
      "question_id": "af460b29-6202-4560-bf0a-2d910903d416",
      "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
      "start_date": "10/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 967,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 53.1,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": 9.100000000000001,
      "url": "https://pollstergraph.com/poll/exclusive-atlas-us-me-20261101-governor",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 1.1884149006282356,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
      "normalized_weight": 0.06891472876867649,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06404628609549065,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "1d977920-6c4e-4f40-9b3d-b5aa4c912583",
      "question_id": "df267f5f-6020-4e76-b018-73697a24ed2d",
      "pollster": "Survey 160",
      "start_date": "10/27/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1322,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 47.0,
      "margin": 3.0,
      "url": "https://www.survey160.com/methodological-research-blog/survey-160-pre-election-surveys-in-four-states",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 1.3895384830148734,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
      "normalized_weight": 0.06891472876867649,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06404628609549065,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "38454df3-a47e-4923-b5eb-d570b5b30f3a",
      "question_id": "7c5ba4db-ebc3-4e1c-8f12-a9dff57beaed",
      "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
      "start_date": "10/27/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 714,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 50.9,
      "republican_pct": 45.0,
      "margin": 5.899999999999999,
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/11/01/polls/times-siena-poll-crosstabs.html",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 1.0211838957829076,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8008585859286407,
      "normalized_weight": 0.05519095223133807,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0512920181164158,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "874e66b5-2a4c-4aca-98bf-0a195be794af",
      "question_id": "b8779839-d6b0-49fc-b36c-017bedddbe74",
      "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
      "start_date": "10/27/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-31",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1633,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 54.0,
      "republican_pct": 45.0,
      "margin": 9.0,
      "url": "https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1013/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 3,
      "raw_weight": 1.4942153104335807,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8075118522744132,
      "normalized_weight": 0.05564946027698275,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.051718135116266654,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "29bc618a-daa1-4fb2-9acf-5bee75f2bbbf",
      "question_id": "edc71465-e9f0-49be-b99c-84d13122c141",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "10/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-29",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1501,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 52.0,
      "republican_pct": 47.0,
      "margin": 5.0,
      "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_me_20261026_lv.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 5,
      "raw_weight": 1.3410374692953746,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6577127284582924,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0453260942894094,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.04212405757548555,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "ace5053f-e892-4ca2-a2d9-b96249dc8c27",
      "question_id": "c29ddc73-2224-4f76-8907-7efbc30e620c",
      "pollster": "Data for Progress",
      "start_date": "10/23/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-27",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 652,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 45.0,
      "margin": 5.0,
      "url": "https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/30/democratic-senate-candidates-lead-in-maine-michigan-and-texas",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 7,
      "raw_weight": 0.8273796612053106,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8273796612053106,
      "normalized_weight": 0.05701864494068343,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.052990594491145446,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "d65e372a-89eb-4af1-9f7b-88ee5d8975a4",
      "question_id": "75fb90ed-fca3-438f-b345-1bfd969fdab7",
      "pollster": "CNN/SSRS",
      "start_date": "10/20/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-26",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 783,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 49.0,
      "republican_pct": 45.0,
      "margin": 4.0,
      "url": "https://edition.cnn.com/2026/10/29/politics/cnn-polls-michigan-maine-texas-kansas-senate-races-midterms-vis",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 8,
      "raw_weight": 0.8772576462508207,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8308910959147464,
      "normalized_weight": 0.05726063451127312,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.053215488843151616,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "0102d73f-4f7c-473f-9e04-309aa37c777b",
      "question_id": "affd988a-3dbb-42da-8b36-6409a6910f4e",
      "pollster": "Marist University",
      "start_date": "10/22/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-25",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1449,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 49.0,
      "republican_pct": 47.0,
      "margin": 2.0,
      "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-midterm-elections-in-maine-october-2026/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 9,
      "raw_weight": 1.1546376434886958,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6624401895563133,
      "normalized_weight": 0.04565188598874398,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.042426833901474705,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "8d34f2d5-7511-416a-a60c-d917478e9979",
      "question_id": "118ab9ff-c3da-421b-a6cd-f1507ff6e7c0",
      "pollster": "Echelon Insights",
      "start_date": "10/16/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-23",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 413,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 51.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": 7.0,
      "url": "https://netchoice.org/netchoice-echelon-insights-poll-voters-rank-ai-regulation-far-behind-cost-of-living-want-one-national-ai-standard/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 11,
      "raw_weight": 0.577054752262417,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.577054752262417,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03976757173684028,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03695821375616124,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "d5992a57-6957-4dd3-931e-75be420bd943",
      "question_id": "0d156514-e62f-4616-8a22-f23d59463ac4",
      "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
      "start_date": "10/21/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-23",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1077,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 46.5,
      "republican_pct": 47.0,
      "margin": -0.5,
      "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/me-senate-gen-1025/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 11,
      "raw_weight": 0.46592911779185703,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.46592911779185703,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03210937877805455,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02984102957831684,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "d5cc3c87-4ce8-4d34-aa26-9420e7d5fdef",
      "question_id": "c3f69e5a-d0fc-4e59-8b8d-47e08e73ca3f",
      "pollster": "Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research",
      "start_date": "10/16/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-20",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1514,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 49.0,
      "republican_pct": 49.0,
      "margin": 0.0,
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-nail-biter-maine-senate-race",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 14,
      "raw_weight": 1.0006925086908263,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.9276322885476331,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0639275275623268,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.059411402943736445,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "c0ecc74f-857a-4e02-951c-fd42f1c018b1",
      "question_id": "41cb29d6-d915-468e-9694-f023f922824d",
      "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
      "start_date": "10/13/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-14",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1200,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 49.3,
      "republican_pct": 46.8,
      "margin": 2.5,
      "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-senate-surveys-texas-paxton-49-talarico-48-kansas-marshall-48-hamilton-47-maine-jackson-49-collins-47/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 20,
      "raw_weight": 0.7308357171124036,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6666666666666666,
      "normalized_weight": 0.04594315251245099,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.04269752406366043,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "b2cf5601-98ad-4a7f-acd3-1be546e39bc3",
      "question_id": "92880d7d-9424-4174-992b-89b9e371f90c",
      "pollster": "Suffolk University",
      "start_date": "10/8/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-11",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 500,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 49.0,
      "republican_pct": 47.0,
      "margin": 2.0,
      "url": "https://www.suffolk.edu/academics/research-at-suffolk/political-research-center/polls/other-states#collapse-October-14-2026-Maine-US-Senate-and-Governor-Statewide-and-Bellwether",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 23,
      "raw_weight": 0.4272773366855424,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4272773366855424,
      "normalized_weight": 0.02944570176668662,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.027365526547481533,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "651aa7dd-de1a-4b7b-a3da-9cf1c9916f15",
      "question_id": "af612594-c904-4416-8528-c46abeecc093",
      "pollster": "The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government",
      "start_date": "9/30/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-05",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 800,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 46.0,
      "margin": 4.0,
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/09/poll-democrat-troy-jackson-narrowly-leads-susan-collins-maine-senate-race/?pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJyZWFzb24iOiJnaWZ0IiwibmJmIjoxNzkxNTE4NDAwLCJpc3MiOiJzdWJzY3JpcHRpb25zIiwiZXhwIjoxNzkyOTAwNzk5LCJpYXQiOjE3OTE1MTg0MDAsImp0aSI6IjE4NjJkMzQ0LWQ0ZmMtNGIyMy05NzAwLTgwNWU1YTNjMWZlNCIsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lndhc2hpbmd0b25wb3N0LmNvbS9wb2xpdGljcy8yMDI2LzEwLzA5L3BvbGwtZGVtb2NyYXQtdHJveS1qYWNrc29uLW5hcnJvd2x5LWxlYWRzLXN1c2FuLWNvbGxpbnMtbWFpbmUtc2VuYXRlLXJhY2UvIn0.2_6lAaaYMcbP0y7_Ioe4GYgRcQnYJkY6IAE55nzmhAs",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 29,
      "raw_weight": 0.4433648702249206,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4433648702249206,
      "normalized_weight": 0.030554369777109857,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02839587332311535,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "3ee37c1b-1cc6-4e47-8cca-03f4c7c46fdb",
      "question_id": "4c6d07ef-7f9b-4992-8a53-5ca36485f320",
      "pollster": "Marist University",
      "start_date": "10/1/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-04",
      "population": "rv",
      "sample_size": 1505,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 51.0,
      "republican_pct": 47.0,
      "margin": 4.0,
      "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-maine-october-2026/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 30,
      "raw_weight": 0.5883689881923388,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.33755981044368666,
      "normalized_weight": 0.023262842779932517,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02161945219401595,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "fc373698-f6f7-4370-84e1-641b97ec8fea",
      "question_id": "00f3e1e8-ee3d-400d-ba59-1658f7a758fd",
      "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
      "start_date": "9/29/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1091,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 46.2,
      "republican_pct": 45.9,
      "margin": 0.30000000000000426,
      "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/me-senate-gen-1002/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 33,
      "raw_weight": 0.22686088313655126,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.22686088313655126,
      "normalized_weight": 0.015634056229577847,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01452959702523923,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "bfa1f56c-0587-479f-b529-5d9e30f438d4",
      "question_id": "66958257-f11e-4202-9dcb-35ae34872b03",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "9/23/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1136,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 50.0,
      "margin": 0.0,
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/maine-senate-poll-2026-10-02/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 33,
      "raw_weight": 0.462984449568728,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.22707103457713884,
      "normalized_weight": 0.015648538759106285,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.014543056444526484,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "03c7e817-549b-4951-9dbe-e32ca29e4962",
      "question_id": "0e9cf369-afd2-4271-8759-49f5e11f7bcd",
      "pollster": "co/efficient",
      "start_date": "9/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-30",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1240,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 46.0,
      "republican_pct": 48.0,
      "margin": -2.0,
      "url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/me/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 34,
      "raw_weight": 0.4680080461221046,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4680080461221046,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03225264756006308,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.029974177216927897,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "85b5bf4c-d037-4e45-8b65-76e7929e1e84",
      "question_id": "962fe805-0fe7-4d40-9055-d34ca7144cfc",
      "pollster": "Maine People's Resource Center",
      "start_date": "9/25/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-29",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 684,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 49.3,
      "republican_pct": 46.5,
      "margin": 2.799999999999997,
      "url": "https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nVC9doKmSak5hQ8ajaaKftWiXSEZf-Us/view?link_id=0&can_id=43449815c7c9cdc13604b107d8c0a515&source=email-polling-jackson-leads-collins-mainers-demand-childcare-ai-regulation&email_referrer=email_3433131&email_subject=polling-jackson-leads-collins-mainers-demand-childcare-ai-regulation",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 35,
      "raw_weight": 0.33630689102772515,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.33630689102772515,
      "normalized_weight": 0.02317649817821252,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.021539207358646683,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "f2282209-2c6d-4984-8716-27f5d2f2a1b5",
      "question_id": "d8d93f85-d404-4485-9cb3-f8e3ee7013a5",
      "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
      "start_date": "9/22/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-23",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1200,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 46.4,
      "republican_pct": 45.6,
      "margin": 0.7999999999999972,
      "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/me-top-line-tabs/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 41,
      "raw_weight": 0.36541785855620185,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.33333333333333337,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0229715762562255,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.021348762031830223,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "4042f88a-a07b-4ffb-ac4d-b1d2c8311d21",
      "question_id": "c5c6a7d5-972b-4f2e-b531-3846a71b00b1",
      "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research",
      "start_date": "9/20/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-22",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 982,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 47.0,
      "margin": 3.0,
      "url": "https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/voter-research/politics/2026-midterm-election-poll-maine/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 42,
      "raw_weight": 0.3198306843732581,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3198306843732581,
      "normalized_weight": 0.022041044865483264,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02048396751348626,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "18ea0516-1c68-4a62-9dbf-aca3c70b45f4",
      "question_id": "41905a8d-6e49-4ab6-9590-69d5a4a13db7",
      "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
      "start_date": "9/15/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-22",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 619,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 45.92,
      "republican_pct": 48.66,
      "margin": -2.739999999999995,
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/09/24/polls/times-siena-poll-me-crosstabs.html",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 42,
      "raw_weight": 0.25392748308654317,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.19914141407135927,
      "normalized_weight": 0.01372377653733842,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.012754267979074845,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "f25eb113-894c-4eaa-b591-a9257b79e807",
      "question_id": "5ccd46ea-0758-46ca-9fa6-3a66f45d8a04",
      "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
      "start_date": "9/17/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-21",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1301,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 51.0,
      "republican_pct": 47.0,
      "margin": 4.0,
      "url": "https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1007/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 43,
      "raw_weight": 0.3561789670312261,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.19248814772558676,
      "normalized_weight": 0.013265268491693745,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.012328150979223998,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "9dedd226-93bf-4881-9d16-8c5d9f6a4d06",
      "question_id": "a1f97ee7-f4a3-461c-9e46-803a0590525d",
      "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
      "start_date": "9/14/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-15",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 621,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 47.4,
      "republican_pct": 47.6,
      "margin": -0.20000000000000284,
      "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/f/quantus-survey-collins-and-jackson-even-in-maine-senate-race",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 49,
      "raw_weight": 0.20186770781265959,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.20186770781265959,
      "normalized_weight": 0.013911658331063873,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01292887696801051,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "75b56fcb-48d9-441b-938f-d246765a4115",
      "question_id": "8d0624bd-531b-4988-bfa3-05d3cddf9445",
      "pollster": "University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov",
      "start_date": "8/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-14",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 650,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.0,
      "margin": 5.0,
      "url": "https://www.uml.edu/news/press-releases/2026/09242026-maine-poll.aspx",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 50,
      "raw_weight": 0.19982184666692357,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.19982184666692357,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0137706683651071,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.012797847159759053,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "169a8eb8-b9e5-4288-a307-319244670cc9",
      "question_id": "14ef4296-9791-4c45-a13f-4ddbc261654d",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "9/2/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-08",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1335,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": 4.0,
      "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_me_20260902.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 56,
      "raw_weight": 0.2349191130949799,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.11521623696456872,
      "normalized_weight": 0.007940095720160812,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.007379172075478614,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "be77c821-d548-48e3-94dc-b9a31cd171ef",
      "question_id": "e6b1a8a4-bfb6-4f6f-871a-cdca35beb2b4",
      "pollster": "CNN/SSRS",
      "start_date": "8/31/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-06",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 880,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 45.0,
      "margin": 3.0,
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/09/politics/cnn-polls-maine-senate-michigan-senate-abdul-el-sayed-susan-collins",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 58,
      "raw_weight": 0.17854575634194425,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.16910890408525356,
      "normalized_weight": 0.011654094257403377,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.010830797252339038,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "41f7d42d-ab2a-4fb0-abe5-2d64da737526",
      "question_id": "572a935b-975f-4fc3-83ff-8d7399d7c3ef",
      "pollster": "Abacus Data",
      "start_date": "8/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-28",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 327,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 42.0,
      "margin": 8.0,
      "url": "https://abacusdata.ca/the-trade-war-next-door-what-american-voters-think-about-tariffs-canada-and-the-battle-for-the-u-s-senate/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 67,
      "raw_weight": 0.08086660625190158,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.08086660625190158,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0055729002362931565,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.005179205799580681,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "ME",
      "poll_id": "5b686156-9822-45bb-a17c-ad5d38d09f37",
      "question_id": "a7679919-eab7-426b-b45a-67f3b750ba5a",
      "pollster": "Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research",
      "start_date": "8/6/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-10",
      "population": "rv",
      "sample_size": 1000,
      "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "dce3faa3-ebe4-41f6-a93a-d35df465d6e4",
      "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 46.0,
      "margin": 2.0,
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-new-matchup-same-result-maine-senate-race-stays-locked",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 85,
      "raw_weight": 0.07806738469061408,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.07236771145236683,
      "normalized_weight": 0.004987201206349704,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0046348831517542015,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "ME"
    },
    {
      "state": "MA",
      "poll_id": "7fca87a7-c9a7-443c-9b3a-f5826088f152",
      "question_id": "ea5c8770-c63e-4afa-a43d-a9b5b6bfa252",
      "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
      "start_date": "10/27/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-31",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 877,
      "opposition_name": "Ed Markey",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "7390ce3e-b2d1-4835-a24d-9b24786b0193",
      "republican_name": "John Deaton",
      "opposition_pct": 53.0,
      "republican_pct": 32.0,
      "margin": 21.0,
      "url": "https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1014/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 3,
      "raw_weight": 1.0950145411657772,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7573680014327137,
      "normalized_weight": 0.23951348395920136,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.22054628392427297,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MA"
    },
    {
      "state": "MA",
      "poll_id": "d75f0973-c7ad-4835-9163-1eae53b68db0",
      "question_id": "e00e1be9-dd09-4642-a7fa-2dfebf8ea8c5",
      "pollster": "UMass Lowell",
      "start_date": "10/7/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-18",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 850,
      "opposition_name": "Ed Markey",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "7390ce3e-b2d1-4835-a24d-9b24786b0193",
      "republican_name": "John Deaton",
      "opposition_pct": 55.0,
      "republican_pct": 26.0,
      "margin": 29.0,
      "url": "https://www.uml.edu/news/press-releases/2026/102826-new-england-polls.aspx",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 16,
      "raw_weight": 0.7019038919132006,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7019038919132006,
      "normalized_weight": 0.22197326298263095,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.20439508236498152,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MA"
    },
    {
      "state": "MA",
      "poll_id": "318ee917-8c6b-47f7-98c2-927bec92a5be",
      "question_id": "6dab8989-4378-4f62-a5ed-a360f0c70d84",
      "pollster": "Suffolk University",
      "start_date": "10/14/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-18",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 500,
      "opposition_name": "Ed Markey",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "7390ce3e-b2d1-4835-a24d-9b24786b0193",
      "republican_name": "John Deaton",
      "opposition_pct": 60.0,
      "republican_pct": 31.8,
      "margin": 28.2,
      "url": "https://www.suffolk.edu/academics/research-at-suffolk/political-research-center/polls/massachusetts#collapse-October-20-2026-Massachusetts-Governor-and-US-Senate-Statewide-and-Bellwether-with-The-Boston-Globe",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 16,
      "raw_weight": 0.5383357106331338,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5383357106331338,
      "normalized_weight": 0.17024572116788797,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.1567638720665154,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MA"
    },
    {
      "state": "MA",
      "poll_id": "c5000c5b-f88e-460a-9b37-9c068f09cd9c",
      "question_id": "8d58fb28-ffbe-4d5b-8b7d-6edbd4535dce",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "10/5/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-12",
      "population": "rv",
      "sample_size": 800,
      "opposition_name": "Ed Markey",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "7390ce3e-b2d1-4835-a24d-9b24786b0193",
      "republican_name": "John Deaton",
      "opposition_pct": 56.0,
      "republican_pct": 29.0,
      "margin": 27.0,
      "url": "https://www.umass.edu/poll/about/reports/2026-10-massachusetts-public-opinion-poll#toc-methodology",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 22,
      "raw_weight": 0.5586047327802862,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5586047327802862,
      "normalized_weight": 0.17665568845159557,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.1626662306357669,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MA"
    },
    {
      "state": "MA",
      "poll_id": "377b9e38-e1a9-484b-9bd4-ce02fcc2890b",
      "question_id": "b56c6da5-a75d-476b-8b27-bd2796ee4194",
      "pollster": "MassINC Polling Group",
      "start_date": "9/14/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-22",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 800,
      "opposition_name": "Ed Markey",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "7390ce3e-b2d1-4835-a24d-9b24786b0193",
      "republican_name": "John Deaton",
      "opposition_pct": 54.0,
      "republican_pct": 28.0,
      "margin": 26.0,
      "url": "https://commonwealthbeacon.org/politics/poll-healey-cruising-in-reelection-bid-with-trump-high-on-voters-mind/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 42,
      "raw_weight": 0.28867513459481287,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.28867513459481287,
      "normalized_weight": 0.09129193085580564,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.08406247435300655,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MA"
    },
    {
      "state": "MA",
      "poll_id": "ef224dbe-a915-4b35-be63-da218ace4540",
      "question_id": "34d85126-ded1-49a3-847c-5705abde0aef",
      "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
      "start_date": "9/17/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-21",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 556,
      "opposition_name": "Ed Markey",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "7390ce3e-b2d1-4835-a24d-9b24786b0193",
      "republican_name": "John Deaton",
      "opposition_pct": 53.0,
      "republican_pct": 30.0,
      "margin": 23.0,
      "url": "https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1008/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 43,
      "raw_weight": 0.23284505416786921,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.16104753561616225,
      "normalized_weight": 0.05093040142374897,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.04689719587851128,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MA"
    },
    {
      "state": "MA",
      "poll_id": "c3730e7e-803e-4ba0-bc0f-f7ada8bd3fc2",
      "question_id": "4d38a24c-8f0c-4725-9e49-325ca5f32797",
      "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
      "start_date": "8/20/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-24",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 906,
      "opposition_name": "Ed Markey",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "7390ce3e-b2d1-4835-a24d-9b24786b0193",
      "republican_name": "John Deaton",
      "opposition_pct": 49.0,
      "republican_pct": 30.0,
      "margin": 19.0,
      "url": "https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/989/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 71,
      "raw_weight": 0.11795609676628037,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.08158446295112413,
      "normalized_weight": 0.025800639743690252,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.023757473375941807,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MA"
    },
    {
      "state": "MA",
      "poll_id": "4b4746d6-4dad-447c-8659-d24dd5be4b13",
      "question_id": "b2a251e9-3c43-4821-a338-f6e9229aead3",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "8/5/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-12",
      "population": "rv",
      "sample_size": 800,
      "opposition_name": "Ed Markey",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "7390ce3e-b2d1-4835-a24d-9b24786b0193",
      "republican_name": "John Deaton",
      "opposition_pct": 51.0,
      "republican_pct": 30.0,
      "margin": 21.0,
      "url": "https://www.umass.edu/news/article/experience-trust-drive-bay-state-primary-voters-support-markey-over-moulton-new-umass",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 83,
      "raw_weight": 0.07459060803026753,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.07459060803026753,
      "normalized_weight": 0.023588871415439337,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.021720856156594644,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MA"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "9d59ada9-f021-49e8-b627-4c0308822798",
      "question_id": "d7bf11cc-9121-41e0-be8e-c962f1710452",
      "pollster": "John Zogby Strategies",
      "start_date": "10/31/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-02",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1001,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 51.0,
      "republican_pct": 49.0,
      "margin": 2.0,
      "url": "https://johnzogbystrategies.com/el-sayed-leads-rogers-51-49-new-john-zogby-strategies-eve-of-election-day-poll/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 1,
      "raw_weight": 1.2497025380705993,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
      "normalized_weight": 0.054109955439348996,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05034724029215621,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "29c14fdc-68af-4eb3-95ca-942bf46ca65b",
      "question_id": "805882b8-cd41-45d8-90a5-629bb8704316",
      "pollster": "Emerson College",
      "start_date": "11/1/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 500,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 51.2,
      "republican_pct": 45.2,
      "margin": 6.0,
      "url": "https://pollvault.substack.com/p/new-poll-vault-emerson-senate-and",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 0.8545546733710848,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7751743610786751,
      "normalized_weight": 0.041944650135692936,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03902788982554671,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "7386956a-1647-4ea3-a671-60ad31bb308f",
      "question_id": "7a616448-7e81-47e4-8e21-8f3ac4046147",
      "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners",
      "start_date": "10/30/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 510,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 51.0,
      "republican_pct": 41.0,
      "margin": 10.0,
      "url": "https://concordpublicopinionpartners.org/blog/michigan-ge-2026",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 0.4315289571905832,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4315289571905832,
      "normalized_weight": 0.023350012644371195,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.021726292100697882,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "471675d9-7773-409a-b6b8-2ab979f62d01",
      "question_id": "e014e631-c06c-403e-892f-8f8c7eacf061",
      "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
      "start_date": "10/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1316,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 53.5,
      "republican_pct": 46.4,
      "margin": 7.100000000000001,
      "url": "https://pollstergraph.com/poll/exclusive-atlas-us-mi-20261101-senate",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 1.3863816327050469,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
      "normalized_weight": 0.054109955439348996,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05034724029215621,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "8de7ab3e-bd02-4cec-be08-c93b64288f26",
      "question_id": "7ea2a1ee-59ba-405e-8a2b-c19b5c22f692",
      "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
      "start_date": "10/31/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1087,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 47.1,
      "republican_pct": 45.9,
      "margin": 1.2000000000000028,
      "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-senate-gen-1101/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 0.6299986630109833,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6299986630109833,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03408919958237375,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03171869407035112,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "79c1089e-6893-4079-913e-e6f151d017c2",
      "question_id": "fe0ea3f7-6dd3-4e33-890f-b055088243e8",
      "pollster": "Research Co.",
      "start_date": "10/30/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 450,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 46.0,
      "margin": 2.0,
      "url": "https://researchco.ca/2026/11/01/midterms-2026-one/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 0.8107017458981602,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8107017458981602,
      "normalized_weight": 0.04386703534515188,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.040816595606005236,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "c1d14361-f029-4b1d-ba0f-d4fa10222df0",
      "question_id": "0975d1d6-6388-4f25-9a26-951c05500f2f",
      "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
      "start_date": "10/23/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1011,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 52.6,
      "republican_pct": 41.6,
      "margin": 11.0,
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/11/01/polls/times-siena-poll-crosstabs.html",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 1.2151515052601016,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8287811726597035,
      "normalized_weight": 0.04484531232158796,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0417268448495131,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "69fc5034-470a-42cb-b49a-0c989fcc6047",
      "question_id": "32851709-f695-4361-8da9-28d957d8f071",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "10/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-29",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 2088,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 51.0,
      "republican_pct": 47.0,
      "margin": 4.0,
      "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_mi_20261026_lv.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 5,
      "raw_weight": 1.5479807801590098,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6953337889788204,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03762448033711767,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.035008137356972106,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "e05bf93a-250d-4ff3-bc42-01804850b159",
      "question_id": "cd1a4a72-defd-4ff5-b319-5ff4c976c071",
      "pollster": "CNN/SSRS",
      "start_date": "10/20/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-27",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 768,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 49.0,
      "republican_pct": 42.0,
      "margin": 7.0,
      "url": "https://edition.cnn.com/2026/10/29/politics/cnn-polls-michigan-maine-texas-kansas-senate-races-midterms-vis",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 7,
      "raw_weight": 0.8979696386474985,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8370947913916545,
      "normalized_weight": 0.04529516186071357,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.04214541260950801,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "b8ae6e54-601a-409d-aa76-8fcaf9a3636c",
      "question_id": "f7998992-e6f5-4932-acbb-a358221f4f9b",
      "pollster": "Mitchell Research & Communications",
      "start_date": "10/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-27",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 636,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 51.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": 7.0,
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/detroit/news/el-sayed-widens-lead-rogers-michigan-senate-poll/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 7,
      "raw_weight": 0.8171647058239133,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6949293244971136,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03760259478203572,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03498777368652198,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "6aa99f8a-1d58-4606-9f29-bd132b6f9dc1",
      "question_id": "7559da64-b0ca-4af7-8640-776fec81242b",
      "pollster": "Data for Progress",
      "start_date": "10/23/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-25",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 622,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 46.0,
      "margin": 4.0,
      "url": "https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/30/democratic-senate-candidates-lead-in-maine-michigan-and-texas",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 9,
      "raw_weight": 0.7564961321255557,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7564961321255557,
      "normalized_weight": 0.04093397199935368,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.038087492544212107,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "4567e642-9d14-4530-9c86-e17199675130",
      "question_id": "4353b805-3580-492a-8724-00b582c6c6d9",
      "pollster": "Upswing Research",
      "start_date": "10/24/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-25",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 505,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 45.0,
      "margin": 5.0,
      "url": "https://x.com/joshorton/status/2115883461076545615",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 9,
      "raw_weight": 0.3408216800387445,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3408216800387445,
      "normalized_weight": 0.018441845919660527,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01715943102168705,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "c506a63c-4d38-4a19-9173-98e168424ae5",
      "question_id": "db7880a2-fbb9-42db-be1c-cc6046217752",
      "pollster": "Michigan State University Office for Survey Research/Verasight",
      "start_date": "10/8/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-23",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1383,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 51.4,
      "republican_pct": 42.2,
      "margin": 9.199999999999996,
      "url": "https://polisci.msu.edu/news-events/news/smidt-poll102926.html",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 11,
      "raw_weight": 1.0559736619579039,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
      "normalized_weight": 0.054109955439348996,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05034724029215621,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "ee2e05a0-c2e8-441b-b729-80775d5ee24c",
      "question_id": "d2b0bafb-6798-46c7-915d-8d3f1458633e",
      "pollster": "Glengariff Group, Inc.",
      "start_date": "10/19/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-22",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 600,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 51.4,
      "republican_pct": 45.1,
      "margin": 6.299999999999997,
      "url": "https://detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2026/10/27/jocelyn-bensons-lead-over-john-james-grows-in-michigan-governor-race/92441176007/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 12,
      "raw_weight": 0.6729500963161781,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6729500963161781,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03641329972457401,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03388118020386029,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "29fef2f9-7f7c-4255-b536-9814ad9c5ba6",
      "question_id": "1313d61f-e3a8-48ca-963f-8547be24f9ba",
      "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
      "start_date": "10/21/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-22",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1200,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 47.2,
      "republican_pct": 46.0,
      "margin": 1.2000000000000028,
      "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-senate-surveys-mi-el-sayed-47-rogers-46-ia-hinson-47-turek-45-oh-brown-47-husted-44/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 12,
      "raw_weight": 0.9516951530106197,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5030357303908399,
      "normalized_weight": 0.027219240955848722,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.025326460793527922,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "d2be96f5-7278-4294-92a5-7e0e4fa03dd4",
      "question_id": "2b93d302-b2ae-40dc-a6b4-fbc9102a2477",
      "pollster": "Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov",
      "start_date": "10/2/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-19",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 836,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 45.5,
      "margin": 2.5,
      "url": "https://ippsr.msu.edu/news/msu-poll-shows-benson-large-lead-while-el-sayed-roger-race-tight",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 15,
      "raw_weight": 0.7194590634979661,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7194590634979661,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0389298978663107,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03622277835030177,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "fcc4e329-5654-4b25-9327-d06c9677abdc",
      "question_id": "78a2f4d9-d9f7-4dbb-8b02-2aacaeb5f69d",
      "pollster": "Marist University",
      "start_date": "10/15/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-18",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1185,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 48.0,
      "margin": 2.0,
      "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-michigan-october-2026/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 16,
      "raw_weight": 0.8287572922771952,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6620589398179161,
      "normalized_weight": 0.035823979731770074,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0333328405305828,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "e4682f6c-ef99-473c-a540-54dbcf9d775f",
      "question_id": "a429eff9-57bf-4f48-a664-623ff857d22f",
      "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
      "start_date": "10/9/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-10",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1200,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 47.8,
      "republican_pct": 45.5,
      "margin": 2.299999999999997,
      "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-u-s-senate-surveys-alaska-ranks-choice-peltola-50-sullivan-48-kansas-hamilton-48-marshall-47-michigan-el-sayed-48-rogers-46/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 24,
      "raw_weight": 0.6404433448821364,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.33851794321699474,
      "normalized_weight": 0.018317190822891658,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.017043444230352527,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "6791fae3-af46-4a7f-aef8-12f4e9e732c7",
      "question_id": "489d0c79-0c73-4962-86fa-50d1ca61df81",
      "pollster": "The Tyson Group",
      "start_date": "10/6/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-08",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 600,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 44.0,
      "republican_pct": 46.0,
      "margin": -2.0,
      "url": "https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/10/15/exclusive-poll-shows-mike-rogers-edging-out-abdul-el-sayed-in-michigan-senate-race/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 26,
      "raw_weight": 0.21196599796938378,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.21196599796938378,
      "normalized_weight": 0.011469470704780495,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.010671903033531261,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "ee904e5a-0b44-496a-85ab-d8c215a658d6",
      "question_id": "d76ac73d-e36c-41df-8520-ad75f223058e",
      "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
      "start_date": "10/5/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-06",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 744,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 48.4,
      "republican_pct": 47.2,
      "margin": 1.1999999999999957,
      "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/f/michigan-senate-el-sayed-48-rogers-47-at-four-weeks-out",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 28,
      "raw_weight": 0.4419137503333715,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4419137503333715,
      "normalized_weight": 0.023911933338574328,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02224913777644218,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "56a26c06-7fb0-4b33-90dc-7f8ea906e654",
      "question_id": "6ef7b8c6-41c1-457b-89a2-fe1ed343f795",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "9/22/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-04",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 3947,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 49.0,
      "republican_pct": 48.0,
      "margin": 1.0,
      "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_mi_20260921_lv.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 30,
      "raw_weight": 0.6782604937368006,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3046662110211796,
      "normalized_weight": 0.016485475102231324,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.015339102935184099,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "ab83cf47-b0a2-422e-a221-5c9e87c8ef63",
      "question_id": "945eeac0-0a07-4e9a-a371-5615b6530aba",
      "pollster": "Z to A Research",
      "start_date": "9/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 483,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 49.0,
      "republican_pct": 42.0,
      "margin": 7.0,
      "url": "https://x.com/rbrtraining/status/2108302504446337272",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 33,
      "raw_weight": 0.15094572179806526,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.15094572179806526,
      "normalized_weight": 0.008167666280253682,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.007599700526440153,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "2dc1e826-8970-4611-8cfa-14268c7d1bd4",
      "question_id": "310f79f6-63ec-4002-9cd7-c425108f7b51",
      "pollster": "Mitchell Research & Communications",
      "start_date": "10/1/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 682,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 45.6,
      "republican_pct": 41.4,
      "margin": 4.200000000000003,
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/detroit/news/michigan-voter-poll-abdul-el-sayed-mike-rogers/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 33,
      "raw_weight": 0.3587314278084606,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.30507067550288636,
      "normalized_weight": 0.01650736065731328,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.015359466605634232,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "3d9810d5-e530-4e7e-97e8-ea312f2727db",
      "question_id": "e8a6ffa8-d33a-4ec3-8546-40cdc820954c",
      "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
      "start_date": "9/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-30",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1085,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 46.9,
      "republican_pct": 45.1,
      "margin": 1.7999999999999972,
      "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-senate-general-1001/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 34,
      "raw_weight": 0.2188907203553015,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2188907203553015,
      "normalized_weight": 0.011844167124512365,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.011020543695451532,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "7f60d59d-6820-4372-bd51-1e43f71d8674",
      "question_id": "3c5a8820-c0cf-4016-bfbd-640ff7085496",
      "pollster": "Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research",
      "start_date": "9/24/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-28",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1028,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 49.0,
      "margin": 1.0,
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-michigan-voters-split-between-el-sayed-rogers",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 36,
      "raw_weight": 0.3989050285407311,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3989050285407311,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0215847333188712,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02008376732568962,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "32ba7df0-57e8-439c-94d9-ce6b91b53a57",
      "question_id": "696649ff-e2a3-4131-b98f-9be32707299d",
      "pollster": "The Tyson Group",
      "start_date": "9/24/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-27",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 600,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 44.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.0,
      "margin": 1.0,
      "url": "https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/10/15/exclusive-poll-shows-mike-rogers-edging-out-abdul-el-sayed-in-michigan-senate-race/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 37,
      "raw_weight": 0.14742930611217056,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.14742930611217056,
      "normalized_weight": 0.007977393184183692,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.007422658700935306,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "6baacd72-4dcd-4aae-9584-f31921e4b22f",
      "question_id": "e3413b1f-71ce-4d93-a0f3-62222ee9b525",
      "pollster": "Guidant Polling and Strategy",
      "start_date": "9/20/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-27",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 800,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.0,
      "margin": 5.0,
      "url": "https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/documenttools/517739e11050c66b/43ffa3c2-full.pdf",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 37,
      "raw_weight": 0.17023669914060283,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.17023669914060283,
      "normalized_weight": 0.00921150020463988,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.008570947998175432,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "25345253-7ec6-454f-a2e7-d87a38e5680e",
      "question_id": "4bf97b43-ec01-48eb-bb2a-1930f6405eff",
      "pollster": "Marist University",
      "start_date": "9/24/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-27",
      "population": "rv",
      "sample_size": 1235,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 51.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": 7.0,
      "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-michigan-september-2026/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 37,
      "raw_weight": 0.4230304904013765,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.33794106018208386,
      "normalized_weight": 0.018285975707578915,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.017014399761573398,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "e05c43ca-5439-4bac-8148-b5a35785ebbd",
      "question_id": "bd20db7f-0151-4594-9a57-66c6f717e312",
      "pollster": "Big Data Poll",
      "start_date": "9/22/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-24",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 678,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 46.7,
      "republican_pct": 42.1,
      "margin": 4.600000000000001,
      "url": "https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/wolverine-state-poll-el-sayed-leads-rogers-for-us-senate-in-michigan/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 40,
      "raw_weight": 0.28388912341498246,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.28388912341498246,
      "normalized_weight": 0.015361227817700548,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.014293033912903711,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "fdd3fa5f-0d00-4570-8595-206a2c44b1c5",
      "question_id": "b088df77-1d6e-4265-a23f-cea70396759c",
      "pollster": "co/efficient",
      "start_date": "9/21/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-23",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 843,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 50.0,
      "margin": 0.0,
      "url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/mi/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 41,
      "raw_weight": 0.30627597599981576,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.30627597599981576,
      "normalized_weight": 0.016572579413493153,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01542015015937739,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "a73499f4-78b4-49de-b9c1-b6b6c4d9ab35",
      "question_id": "86437ffc-38eb-4d21-9233-207daf93047f",
      "pollster": "GBAO",
      "start_date": "9/19/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-22",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 800,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": 4.0,
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2026/09/28/trumps-joes-exit-the-front-row-01094720",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 42,
      "raw_weight": 0.14433756729740643,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.14433756729740643,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0078100993346866985,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.00726699818390779,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "4d0532bf-99b1-4496-b653-1afe23ce13f2",
      "question_id": "62d47ffb-f925-48e8-af3d-72d990f1c67d",
      "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
      "start_date": "9/15/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-22",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 605,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 49.45,
      "republican_pct": 44.5,
      "margin": 4.950000000000003,
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/09/24/polls/times-siena-poll-mi-toplines.html",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 42,
      "raw_weight": 0.25103950552320115,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.17121882734029653,
      "normalized_weight": 0.009264643117761035,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.008620395442643114,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "eb8dcba9-321d-4335-b659-9e9a33a55f92",
      "question_id": "3cbd3574-e2bd-4aa0-965d-31188500b8d9",
      "pollster": "Cygnal/Beacon Research",
      "start_date": "9/18/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-21",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 600,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 45.0,
      "republican_pct": 40.0,
      "margin": 5.0,
      "url": "https://enjoyer.com/michigan-poll-fall-2026/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 43,
      "raw_weight": 0.2418829446309729,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2418829446309729,
      "normalized_weight": 0.013088275355520464,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.012178138735909907,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "d122b726-eb15-4792-bea0-ee63d8ec1529",
      "question_id": "963f3c18-13d6-410b-969e-ffc926b66d6d",
      "pollster": "Suffolk University",
      "start_date": "9/16/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-20",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 500,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 46.8,
      "republican_pct": 39.6,
      "margin": 7.199999999999996,
      "url": "https://www.suffolk.edu/academics/research-at-suffolk/political-research-center/polls",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 44,
      "raw_weight": 0.2136386683427712,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2136386683427712,
      "normalized_weight": 0.011559978824149207,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.010756117370749767,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "7145345e-115a-4e15-b102-5006131f5230",
      "question_id": "878d8ab9-5a80-49ad-9e0c-f18738247d02",
      "pollster": "Torchlight Strategies",
      "start_date": "9/15/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-19",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 643,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 43.1,
      "republican_pct": 44.4,
      "margin": -1.2999999999999972,
      "url": "https://washingtonreporter.news/exclusive-mike-rogers-leads-in-michigan-john-james-nearly-tied-poll-shows/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 45,
      "raw_weight": 0.11720215285202203,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.11720215285202203,
      "normalized_weight": 0.006341803268218682,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.005900804952398774,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "bb987f0d-aae5-46bd-9cd9-a37dc9ed0e83",
      "question_id": "96335354-f900-4424-a33d-0b597848b6b0",
      "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
      "start_date": "9/16/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-17",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1200,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 46.6,
      "republican_pct": 44.7,
      "margin": 1.8999999999999986,
      "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/mi-top-line-tabs/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 47,
      "raw_weight": 0.29976518909025046,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.15844632639216533,
      "normalized_weight": 0.008573523660608613,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.00797733526827576,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "f02c3dba-1905-4371-a2db-f33b476c5179",
      "question_id": "a8d8c4a0-39eb-4a5a-bded-a1cafded86db",
      "pollster": "The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government",
      "start_date": "9/10/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-14",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 803,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 45.0,
      "margin": 3.0,
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/documents/08fa9b5e-43ac-456c-a706-4c33ec6506dc.pdf?itid=lk_inline_manual_2",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 50,
      "raw_weight": 0.22209770073107554,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.22209770073107554,
      "normalized_weight": 0.012017696689740365,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01118200630704286,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "39a97beb-dff8-42e4-ba27-456ffbd2ac88",
      "question_id": "8e44bf3b-8d26-4680-824a-1eed6973b30a",
      "pollster": "Emerson College",
      "start_date": "9/12/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-14",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1000,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 48.19,
      "republican_pct": 45.72,
      "margin": 2.469999999999999,
      "url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2026-poll-el-sayed-and-rogers-locked-in-close-election/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 50,
      "raw_weight": 0.24784849716457374,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.22482563892132493,
      "normalized_weight": 0.012165305303656058,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.011319350466609493,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "9da96e59-1c19-436a-9355-2e4c6ff8b5f7",
      "question_id": "f11a343c-9178-4bc1-b7a5-4229b4bb11d6",
      "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
      "start_date": "9/7/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-09",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1079,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 46.3,
      "republican_pct": 44.8,
      "margin": 1.5,
      "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-sen-general-0910/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 55,
      "raw_weight": 0.10914232675754292,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.10914232675754292,
      "normalized_weight": 0.005905686437397514,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.005495014951307043,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "eac7129e-98df-459f-99ca-9c818ecd162a",
      "question_id": "c21ee2b3-26fc-40ef-b501-7438b67e1ed7",
      "pollster": "CNN/SSRS",
      "start_date": "8/31/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-06",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 843,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 47.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": 3.0,
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/09/politics/cnn-polls-maine-senate-michigan-senate-abdul-el-sayed-susan-collins",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 58,
      "raw_weight": 0.1747519310980743,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.16290520860834543,
      "normalized_weight": 0.008814793578635422,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0082018276826482,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "c8ab1cb2-330b-45e6-9cab-19dd200ac99a",
      "question_id": "54a4f963-5071-4949-b00c-e9d040a4fdfb",
      "pollster": "Glengariff Group, Inc.",
      "start_date": "8/31/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-03",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 600,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 44.4,
      "republican_pct": 45.8,
      "margin": -1.3999999999999986,
      "url": "https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2026/09/08/michigan-senate-poll-mike-rogers-abdul-el-sayed/91653231007/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 61,
      "raw_weight": 0.13353021135180027,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.13353021135180027,
      "normalized_weight": 0.007225313786052765,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.006722877637191493,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "96710969-8ac8-4a68-bf76-d1e3bd0f8e0e",
      "question_id": "f6ddcdac-2d1e-481f-90c9-8a02e3fa5de3",
      "pollster": "Abacus Data",
      "start_date": "8/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-28",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 332,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 47.0,
      "republican_pct": 42.0,
      "margin": 5.0,
      "url": "https://abacusdata.ca/the-trade-war-next-door-what-american-voters-think-about-tariffs-canada-and-the-battle-for-the-u-s-senate/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 67,
      "raw_weight": 0.08148250704792268,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.08148250704792268,
      "normalized_weight": 0.004409014825449536,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.004102419361949074,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "ea8378f5-9ac1-4205-b36e-314fbba935b7",
      "question_id": "0f028862-9bab-4b3f-bbbc-558fac09fbee",
      "pollster": "EPIC-MRA",
      "start_date": "8/22/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-28",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 600,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 47.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.0,
      "margin": 4.0,
      "url": "https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/time-to-relax-about-whether-abdul-el-sayed-can-win-michigan",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 67,
      "raw_weight": 0.10953955346705421,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.10953955346705421,
      "normalized_weight": 0.00592718035694849,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.005515014219901271,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "a4d89b12-868f-490b-9fd9-d4f2ec4ab6e4",
      "question_id": "36bdec9f-45aa-47ca-877b-8a87f260f619",
      "pollster": "Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov",
      "start_date": "8/10/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-20",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 779,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 45.0,
      "margin": 5.0,
      "url": "https://ippsr.msu.edu/news/msu-poll-shows-democrats-lead-republicans-coalesce-behind-rogers",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 75,
      "raw_weight": 0.09584864468682831,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.09584864468682831,
      "normalized_weight": 0.005186365892926275,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.004825714745725246,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "996caa91-bee6-4be5-b8ef-71eb7a1186a7",
      "question_id": "05461b36-d6da-401e-8412-ebef9609aa5d",
      "pollster": "Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc.",
      "start_date": "8/11/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-17",
      "population": "rv",
      "sample_size": 800,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 46.0,
      "republican_pct": 39.0,
      "margin": 7.0,
      "url": "https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/documenttools/43c767b477fe30ae/4748b92f-full.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 78,
      "raw_weight": 0.0879747326750979,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.0879747326750979,
      "normalized_weight": 0.004760308864838187,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.00442928500563136,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "1f396a28-8df3-4095-b0a7-9525b1598b40",
      "question_id": "412a3974-2ec3-48b0-a5b8-4e48aca0e73d",
      "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research",
      "start_date": "8/9/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-11",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 877,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 47.0,
      "margin": 1.0,
      "url": "https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/voter-research/politics/2026-midterm-election-poll-michigan/?CMP=RDRCT-PRI-POLT",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 84,
      "raw_weight": 0.07556212951384222,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.07556212951384222,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0040886634608963204,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.003804344691620443,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "14255922-dac9-4587-b040-83dc51519dbb",
      "question_id": "4289b1bf-6375-4222-89f7-200e3210facd",
      "pollster": "TIPP Insights",
      "start_date": "8/6/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-10",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1215,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 45.44,
      "republican_pct": 42.27,
      "margin": 3.1699999999999946,
      "url": "https://tippinsights.com/league-of-american-workers-survey-michigan-2/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 85,
      "raw_weight": 0.043025683060252735,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.043025683060252735,
      "normalized_weight": 0.002328117793137828,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0021662244037686995,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "e517b345-e0c8-4715-b717-8e68b58495f6",
      "question_id": "5ae72580-b6be-4edb-8937-4fbe603ae73e",
      "pollster": "GBAO",
      "start_date": "8/6/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-10",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 800,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": 6.0,
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2026/08/15/what-burritos-tell-us-about-capitalism-01038859",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 85,
      "raw_weight": 0.034912795798767896,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.034912795798767896,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0018891298249344216,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.001757762919351549,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MI",
      "poll_id": "0c516519-3aea-459d-9426-a392a78944fe",
      "question_id": "d88de28d-b814-46bc-ad3c-49f4ef549eaf",
      "pollster": "Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research",
      "start_date": "8/6/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-10",
      "population": "rv",
      "sample_size": 1006,
      "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2a1df6eb-59e4-4618-bf83-69c693f46fb2",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
      "opposition_pct": 47.0,
      "republican_pct": 51.0,
      "margin": -4.0,
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-senate-battle-looms-michigan",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 85,
      "raw_weight": 0.07830123659142887,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.07830123659142887,
      "normalized_weight": 0.004236876422808139,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.003942251173841644,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MI"
    },
    {
      "state": "MN",
      "poll_id": "a1e3f1ce-417d-4436-b948-485544ecdf39",
      "question_id": "6c66d3fb-effc-4c85-9618-f924ef2ba510",
      "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
      "start_date": "10/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 2133,
      "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
      "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
      "opposition_pct": 48.1,
      "republican_pct": 45.7,
      "margin": 2.3999999999999986,
      "url": "https://pollstergraph.com/poll/exclusive-atlas-us-mn-20261101-senate",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 1.7091093467421696,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
      "normalized_weight": 0.11680269133951914,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.10837691231851478,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MN"
    },
    {
      "state": "MN",
      "poll_id": "24da89e7-102c-4aa4-89a1-451e5301fd0d",
      "question_id": "36f299e4-042c-47f7-abbb-6d8fec55cc7a",
      "pollster": "Survey 160",
      "start_date": "10/27/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1365,
      "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
      "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
      "opposition_pct": 52.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.0,
      "margin": 9.0,
      "url": "https://www.survey160.com/methodological-research-blog/survey-160-pre-election-surveys-in-four-states",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 1.4119560450312845,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
      "normalized_weight": 0.11680269133951914,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.10837691231851478,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MN"
    },
    {
      "state": "MN",
      "poll_id": "f96cc69b-cd5a-4526-930b-9707abdb8e97",
      "question_id": "2dbe44bb-c593-424c-9b7c-085d437e295b",
      "pollster": "Research Co.",
      "start_date": "10/30/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 450,
      "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
      "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.0,
      "margin": 5.0,
      "url": "https://researchco.ca/2026/11/01/midterms-2026-one/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 0.8107017458981602,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8107017458981602,
      "normalized_weight": 0.09469214579455208,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.08786135203167175,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MN"
    },
    {
      "state": "MN",
      "poll_id": "d4400760-72bc-49ff-9842-f8cb3e3e38bf",
      "question_id": "5fc38d2e-96c1-4f04-a6b7-30c73006a774",
      "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
      "start_date": "10/29/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-30",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1200,
      "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
      "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
      "opposition_pct": 49.3,
      "republican_pct": 46.4,
      "margin": 2.8999999999999986,
      "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-final-minnesota-senate-survey-flanagan-49-tafoya-46/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 4,
      "raw_weight": 1.239298577035207,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7355988100511269,
      "normalized_weight": 0.08591992076011934,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.07972192773851479,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MN"
    },
    {
      "state": "MN",
      "poll_id": "913c201c-a821-4a56-b3c5-91e86b15af5f",
      "question_id": "aa37ab5c-d31a-41eb-90b8-2e41ba56b477",
      "pollster": "SurveyUSA",
      "start_date": "10/24/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-28",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 714,
      "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
      "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 41.0,
      "margin": 7.0,
      "url": "https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/kstp-surveyusa-minnesota-statewide-races-inch-left-in-final-poll-before-election-day/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 6,
      "raw_weight": 0.8948802236144522,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5250147295882983,
      "normalized_weight": 0.06132313340880311,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05689947531451975,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MN"
    },
    {
      "state": "MN",
      "poll_id": "c2682803-f4b1-44e9-be94-40f7ceb34de3",
      "question_id": "67551c6a-989f-4564-a596-26cafac5d751",
      "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
      "start_date": "10/19/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-26",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 752,
      "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
      "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
      "opposition_pct": 54.21,
      "republican_pct": 40.31,
      "margin": 13.899999999999999,
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/28/polls/times-siena-mn-poll-toplines.html",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 8,
      "raw_weight": 0.8597163803501411,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8597163803501411,
      "normalized_weight": 0.10041718701356615,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.09317340677199815,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MN"
    },
    {
      "state": "MN",
      "poll_id": "d547a305-d76b-4006-9d51-c268fb8ecf02",
      "question_id": "e580a5af-7e4c-4a0b-afba-6eab5bae2267",
      "pollster": "Victory Insights",
      "start_date": "10/21/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-22",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1194,
      "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
      "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
      "opposition_pct": 47.8,
      "republican_pct": 44.4,
      "margin": 3.3999999999999986,
      "url": "https://irp.cdn-website.com/07e08705/files/uploaded/PollReport_MN-GE-26_10-28-26.pdf",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 12,
      "raw_weight": 0.4746564668111526,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4746564668111526,
      "normalized_weight": 0.05544115278524976,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0514418022850083,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MN"
    },
    {
      "state": "MN",
      "poll_id": "d5f8e9c0-d6c5-42f6-9c7b-66f77ea5e40c",
      "question_id": "cb893ddc-9dcf-490b-b05d-62a8a531584f",
      "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
      "start_date": "10/13/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-15",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1079,
      "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
      "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
      "opposition_pct": 48.1,
      "republican_pct": 44.6,
      "margin": 3.5,
      "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mn-senate-gen-1017/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 19,
      "raw_weight": 0.35813323790460366,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.35813323790460366,
      "normalized_weight": 0.04183092604539399,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03881337452273303,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MN"
    },
    {
      "state": "MN",
      "poll_id": "9849d173-7f1b-41ff-9ed9-b3e55032e195",
      "question_id": "8f51be0a-d98d-4708-8d1d-3bb1d38ec7ef",
      "pollster": "SurveyUSA",
      "start_date": "10/9/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-12",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 718,
      "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
      "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
      "opposition_pct": 45.0,
      "republican_pct": 42.0,
      "margin": 3.0,
      "url": "https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/kstp-surveyusa-poll-swing-in-senate-and-ag-races-klobuchar-up-slightly-on-demuth/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 22,
      "raw_weight": 0.5292024419986836,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.31047627341813894,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03626446433230303,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03364845986121686,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MN"
    },
    {
      "state": "MN",
      "poll_id": "7f43f466-6f44-43e0-bae3-4037b13ae3e7",
      "question_id": "d8734a5d-f370-40bd-988b-b8daf3b2f5a9",
      "pollster": "Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.",
      "start_date": "10/5/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-07",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 800,
      "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
      "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
      "opposition_pct": 47.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.0,
      "margin": 4.0,
      "url": "https://www.startribune.com/minnesota-poll-flanagan-tafoya-senate/601887443",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 27,
      "raw_weight": 0.47362083861677723,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.47362083861677723,
      "normalized_weight": 0.05532018862491963,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0513295640989919,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MN"
    },
    {
      "state": "MN",
      "poll_id": "445eb10b-f60a-4983-a7ee-dd66f8614964",
      "question_id": "dd86ac0c-c537-4fb5-b001-3f7c5b2aecbe",
      "pollster": "Morning Consult",
      "start_date": "10/2/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-07",
      "population": "rv",
      "sample_size": 1000,
      "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
      "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
      "opposition_pct": 45.0,
      "republican_pct": 41.0,
      "margin": 4.0,
      "url": "https://www.thedailyagenda.com/p/morning-take-the-daily-agenda-poll",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 27,
      "raw_weight": 0.5295241953537857,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5295241953537857,
      "normalized_weight": 0.061849851146715464,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.057388197290389326,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MN"
    },
    {
      "state": "MN",
      "poll_id": "9d918f3b-4659-4879-b001-4d30b9d71d0b",
      "question_id": "cec29ac4-e650-4c4b-b30f-c7d0b6a216e6",
      "pollster": "GQR",
      "start_date": "10/1/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-04",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 800,
      "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
      "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
      "opposition_pct": 53.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": 9.0,
      "url": "https://x.com/DrewSav/status/2108502733045334207",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 30,
      "raw_weight": 0.21448480071186593,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.21448480071186593,
      "normalized_weight": 0.02505240197456635,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02324520044040401,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MN"
    },
    {
      "state": "MN",
      "poll_id": "52eaab2c-6b66-41b8-baca-8041921f9c98",
      "question_id": "e3233dab-765e-43ab-95be-d8df31f773df",
      "pollster": "Big Data Poll",
      "start_date": "9/29/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-30",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 622,
      "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
      "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
      "opposition_pct": 45.8,
      "republican_pct": 43.6,
      "margin": 2.1999999999999957,
      "url": "https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/north-star-state-poll-peggy-flanagan-holds-slight-lead-over-michele-tafoya-for-us-senate-in-minnesota/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 34,
      "raw_weight": 0.3314649940503481,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3314649940503481,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03871600338991835,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0359231525968516,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MN"
    },
    {
      "state": "MN",
      "poll_id": "4610aeff-8c61-4b2c-9672-45f7818681d2",
      "question_id": "a5287e7d-6ec6-4611-8496-809b7241c352",
      "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
      "start_date": "9/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-29",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1200,
      "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
      "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
      "opposition_pct": 46.0,
      "republican_pct": 45.0,
      "margin": 1.0,
      "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-survey-u-s-senate-minnesota-contest-a-one-point-race-flanagan-46-tafoya-45/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 35,
      "raw_weight": 0.4454493590701697,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2644011899488732,
      "normalized_weight": 0.030882770579399803,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02865498458,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MN"
    },
    {
      "state": "MN",
      "poll_id": "6dc1e5c8-81c7-4fdc-aaee-f5d0ba3bd532",
      "question_id": "7cb10566-fc15-4ee1-b91a-a9165f03b272",
      "pollster": "co/efficient",
      "start_date": "9/14/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-15",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 833,
      "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
      "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
      "opposition_pct": 43.0,
      "republican_pct": 42.0,
      "margin": 1.0,
      "url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/mn/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 49,
      "raw_weight": 0.23379948613457904,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.23379948613457904,
      "normalized_weight": 0.02730840921431542,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.025338466408921085,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MN"
    },
    {
      "state": "MN",
      "poll_id": "2618d7e3-4071-4897-85b9-d877fdfbc2c7",
      "question_id": "96118869-e711-4f82-ba55-b204080d3b1b",
      "pollster": "SurveyUSA",
      "start_date": "9/9/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-14",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 654,
      "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
      "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
      "opposition_pct": 42.0,
      "republican_pct": 42.0,
      "margin": 0.0,
      "url": "https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/kstp-surveyusa-poll-governor-senate-races-tightening-days-before-early-voting-starts-in-minnesota/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 50,
      "raw_weight": 0.200435740115296,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.11759307348577669,
      "normalized_weight": 0.013735187466024566,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.012744374214432686,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MN"
    },
    {
      "state": "MN",
      "poll_id": "cbda5f15-c2a1-4102-8b12-76064418a417",
      "question_id": "039378a4-d82a-4e95-9b6e-8db15ad77efb",
      "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
      "start_date": "9/8/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-10",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 720,
      "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
      "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
      "opposition_pct": 48.9,
      "republican_pct": 45.4,
      "margin": 3.5,
      "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/polling/f/new-quantus-polls-moody-leads-in-florida-flanagan-in-minnesota",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 54,
      "raw_weight": 0.18429497391382244,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.18429497391382244,
      "normalized_weight": 0.02152614895348093,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.019973320228601304,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MN"
    },
    {
      "state": "MN",
      "poll_id": "eb8ad355-6d1e-479b-b7b1-5b54db88b965",
      "question_id": "d272749d-17c4-4b48-bf56-11420fa2e5fd",
      "pollster": "TIPP Insights",
      "start_date": "8/31/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-02",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1192,
      "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
      "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
      "opposition_pct": 43.96,
      "republican_pct": 41.86,
      "margin": 2.1000000000000014,
      "url": "https://www.dailysignal.com/2026/09/08/senator-tafoya-minnesota-polling-dead-heat/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 62,
      "raw_weight": 0.09104944053328537,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.09104944053328537,
      "normalized_weight": 0.010634819699245233,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.009867657233325694,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MN"
    },
    {
      "state": "MN",
      "poll_id": "e5722003-c9f2-4014-9b05-6062607faa9f",
      "question_id": "fffa6378-d2a3-4959-93e9-9904d3d981e9",
      "pollster": "SurveyUSA",
      "start_date": "8/13/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-17",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 661,
      "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "2580223b-43b7-4b38-987a-db53d591ba1f",
      "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
      "opposition_pct": 46.0,
      "republican_pct": 41.0,
      "margin": 5.0,
      "url": "https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/kstp-surveyusa-poll-early-frontrunners-in-governor-and-senate-races-ag-a-toss-up/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 78,
      "raw_weight": 0.07996753186838952,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.04691592350778609,
      "normalized_weight": 0.005479906132388428,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.005084602928345479,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MN"
    },
    {
      "state": "MS",
      "poll_id": "0c60a604-8bbb-48d3-9785-388eb501e585",
      "question_id": "2d9a619f-dba1-483a-b842-31a1f68961af",
      "pollster": "Change Research",
      "start_date": "10/21/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-22",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 842,
      "opposition_name": "Scott Colom",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "26226406-ccaa-49db-9f0a-9b788953f43c",
      "republican_name": "Cindy Hyde-Smith",
      "opposition_pct": 40.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.0,
      "margin": -3.0,
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm/2026/10/23/oil-politics-squeeze-iowa-01133929",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 12,
      "raw_weight": 0.39859631973500914,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.39859631973500914,
      "normalized_weight": 0.8956284940595158,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.797445613084569,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MS"
    },
    {
      "state": "MS",
      "poll_id": "f1934772-c44e-47bc-8e72-4f1226f44b5f",
      "question_id": "be3f1651-26ac-4ecd-a71b-b011bdc73c36",
      "pollster": "Data for Progress",
      "start_date": "8/5/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-15",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1018,
      "opposition_name": "Scott Colom",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "26226406-ccaa-49db-9f0a-9b788953f43c",
      "republican_name": "Cindy Hyde-Smith",
      "opposition_pct": 38.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": -6.0,
      "url": "https://chartingthewayforward.substack.com/p/research-release-fresh-polling-from",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 80,
      "raw_weight": 0.04645017262069503,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.04645017262069503,
      "normalized_weight": 0.1043715059404842,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.092929825363214,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MS"
    },
    {
      "state": "MT",
      "poll_id": "9c1f8d43-d445-4bc4-aae8-976b327e3347",
      "question_id": "fc99673a-2575-46dd-9920-8361f1ca6690",
      "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners",
      "start_date": "10/22/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-23",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 410,
      "opposition_name": "Seth Bodnar",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "IND",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "e9d54aff-c354-4cce-9a14-3812fc0f00e8",
      "republican_name": "Kurt Alme",
      "opposition_pct": 39.0,
      "republican_pct": 38.0,
      "margin": 1.0,
      "url": "https://dfer.org/policy-polling-memos/montana/montana-general-election-poll-findings/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 11,
      "raw_weight": 0.28747754593286484,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.28747754593286484,
      "normalized_weight": 0.10170232210334257,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.10170232210334257,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MT"
    },
    {
      "state": "MT",
      "poll_id": "81be1cc2-3c9d-4786-9ee7-9d01bceb06e7",
      "question_id": "6bca737c-ba02-424d-bb2e-833c3dabb048",
      "pollster": "Montana State University Billings",
      "start_date": "10/5/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-21",
      "population": "a",
      "sample_size": 720,
      "opposition_name": "Seth Bodnar",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "IND",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "e9d54aff-c354-4cce-9a14-3812fc0f00e8",
      "republican_name": "Kurt Alme",
      "opposition_pct": 26.0,
      "republican_pct": 30.0,
      "margin": -4.0,
      "url": "https://dailymontanan.com/2026/10/29/mountain-state-poll-shows-close-races-for-federal-offices/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 13,
      "raw_weight": 0.7132449755354193,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7132449755354193,
      "normalized_weight": 0.2523281253327312,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.2523281253327312,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MT"
    },
    {
      "state": "MT",
      "poll_id": "e0e77acf-3b20-4b3d-83ea-f06a01c90e97",
      "question_id": "3f6e523a-49b0-4e7d-b0f3-6899776bebd0",
      "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
      "start_date": "10/15/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-18",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 667,
      "opposition_name": "Seth Bodnar",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "IND",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "e9d54aff-c354-4cce-9a14-3812fc0f00e8",
      "republican_name": "Kurt Alme",
      "opposition_pct": 29.4,
      "republican_pct": 45.6,
      "margin": -16.200000000000003,
      "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/f/montana-senate-alme-leads-by-16-as-bodnar-consolidates",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 16,
      "raw_weight": 0.6217719196099188,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6217719196099188,
      "normalized_weight": 0.21996725983513554,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.21996725983513554,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MT"
    },
    {
      "state": "MT",
      "poll_id": "2cefcb18-80ff-4334-84b2-c2e374e1f0a0",
      "question_id": "35b4c7e5-e10b-42fe-ac47-79f9c9bd0b84",
      "pollster": "Peak Insights",
      "start_date": "10/7/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-12",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 500,
      "opposition_name": "Seth Bodnar",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "IND",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "e9d54aff-c354-4cce-9a14-3812fc0f00e8",
      "republican_name": "Kurt Alme",
      "opposition_pct": 29.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": -15.0,
      "url": "https://x.com/burgessev/status/2111155739154882819",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 22,
      "raw_weight": 0.2208079084169283,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2208079084169283,
      "normalized_weight": 0.07811628192355642,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.07811628192355642,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MT"
    },
    {
      "state": "MT",
      "poll_id": "f5b9889e-ffc5-4ce2-babc-27f82664db2b",
      "question_id": "7e5a4878-869d-4654-9512-92a32707376a",
      "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners",
      "start_date": "10/6/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-08",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 405,
      "opposition_name": "Seth Bodnar",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "IND",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "e9d54aff-c354-4cce-9a14-3812fc0f00e8",
      "republican_name": "Kurt Alme",
      "opposition_pct": 37.0,
      "republican_pct": 35.0,
      "margin": 2.0,
      "url": "https://www.sethformontana.com/news/new-poll-independent-seth-bodnar-takes-the-lead-in-montanas-us-senate-race",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 26,
      "raw_weight": 0.1741478377678886,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.1741478377678886,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0616091230109728,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0616091230109728,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MT"
    },
    {
      "state": "MT",
      "poll_id": "08b59de1-c77b-418d-b8ce-f313b38f3880",
      "question_id": "f389f82e-d11f-44a1-ba81-d2df85fcb87c",
      "pollster": "American Pulse Research & Polling",
      "start_date": "9/19/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-24",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 604,
      "opposition_name": "Seth Bodnar",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "IND",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "e9d54aff-c354-4cce-9a14-3812fc0f00e8",
      "republican_name": "Kurt Alme",
      "opposition_pct": 26.1,
      "republican_pct": 45.1,
      "margin": -19.0,
      "url": "https://www.montanarightnow.com/elections/montana-senate-race-kurt-alme-tops-bodnar-and-bankhead-in-new-poll-findings/article_cd8401fb-0470-492c-a53a-c7dfe39552ff.html",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 40,
      "raw_weight": 0.26794914536865005,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.26794914536865005,
      "normalized_weight": 0.09479366536669197,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.09479366536669197,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MT"
    },
    {
      "state": "MT",
      "poll_id": "691239ff-c2cc-463f-9ea4-0305cc655c29",
      "question_id": "82391d18-dd35-4acc-a3a8-9dab2c851cf0",
      "pollster": "Aspect Strategic",
      "start_date": "9/7/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-15",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 715,
      "opposition_name": "Seth Bodnar",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "IND",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "e9d54aff-c354-4cce-9a14-3812fc0f00e8",
      "republican_name": "Kurt Alme",
      "opposition_pct": 32.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": -12.0,
      "url": "https://x.com/burgessev/status/2102451722702442813",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 49,
      "raw_weight": 0.10830389527964929,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.10830389527964929,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03831519295545215,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03831519295545215,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MT"
    },
    {
      "state": "MT",
      "poll_id": "e0d850c2-a12e-48c5-ac86-e4ed1aafda05",
      "question_id": "af41084a-5007-45ca-976d-4492c56e0fb8",
      "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
      "start_date": "9/14/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-15",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 625,
      "opposition_name": "Seth Bodnar",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "IND",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "e9d54aff-c354-4cce-9a14-3812fc0f00e8",
      "republican_name": "Kurt Alme",
      "opposition_pct": 26.1,
      "republican_pct": 45.3,
      "margin": -19.199999999999996,
      "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/f/latest-survey-alme-leads-as-montana%E2%80%99s-senate-opposition-splits",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 49,
      "raw_weight": 0.20251680179579853,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.20251680179579853,
      "normalized_weight": 0.07164534865058647,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.07164534865058647,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MT"
    },
    {
      "state": "MT",
      "poll_id": "b611f1b0-7ca1-49c8-9c2d-29140802d492",
      "question_id": "3e2533f4-2968-4e87-902c-49cbd0be9100",
      "pollster": "Rutgers-Eagleton",
      "start_date": "8/27/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-07",
      "population": "rv",
      "sample_size": 845,
      "opposition_name": "Seth Bodnar",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "IND",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "e9d54aff-c354-4cce-9a14-3812fc0f00e8",
      "republican_name": "Kurt Alme",
      "opposition_pct": 30.0,
      "republican_pct": 38.0,
      "margin": -8.0,
      "url": "https://montanafreepress.org/2026/09/11/alme-holds-an-8-point-lead-over-bodnar-in-senate-race/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 57,
      "raw_weight": 0.18083034566853576,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.18083034566853576,
      "normalized_weight": 0.06397322615775722,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06397322615775722,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MT"
    },
    {
      "state": "MT",
      "poll_id": "8e8910b5-5bcb-4f44-bb67-c6b9e2b7a942",
      "question_id": "f691def6-0d95-4a8d-abd2-1bd9532947c3",
      "pollster": "Peak Insights",
      "start_date": "8/23/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-25",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 600,
      "opposition_name": "Seth Bodnar",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "IND",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "e9d54aff-c354-4cce-9a14-3812fc0f00e8",
      "republican_name": "Kurt Alme",
      "opposition_pct": 22.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": -22.0,
      "url": "https://www.semafor.com/article/09/08/2026/republican-exploits-divided-field-in-montana-senate-race",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 70,
      "raw_weight": 0.04960628287400624,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.04960628287400624,
      "normalized_weight": 0.017549454663773615,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.017549454663773615,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "MT"
    },
    {
      "state": "NE",
      "poll_id": "abc2a463-cbe3-4da8-8494-b10266a5ca04",
      "question_id": "a30a4103-a656-4bc9-86c1-6f5483fc6a70",
      "pollster": "GrayHouse",
      "start_date": "10/29/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 534,
      "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
      "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
      "opposition_pct": 46.0,
      "republican_pct": 50.0,
      "margin": -4.0,
      "url": "https://www.grayhouse.com/post/grayhouse-poll-ricketts-leads-in-nebraska-by-4",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 0.8831317119690731,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8831317119690731,
      "normalized_weight": 0.14357640474081915,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.14357640474081915,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NE"
    },
    {
      "state": "NE",
      "poll_id": "4413d374-c87c-4b80-861f-b5716eee7311",
      "question_id": "b9cc31b8-fbe9-4f9f-a129-a2e6c05e6015",
      "pollster": "National Public Affairs",
      "start_date": "10/25/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-29",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 800,
      "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
      "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 49.0,
      "margin": -1.0,
      "url": "https://backend.natpublicaffairs.com/media/Nebraska_General_Election_Memo_103126.2.pdf",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 5,
      "raw_weight": 0.4895145039466855,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.48680605619781325,
      "normalized_weight": 0.07914319280767357,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.07914319280767357,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NE"
    },
    {
      "state": "NE",
      "poll_id": "261adc4a-cfbe-4fe7-9455-24765fbcea0c",
      "question_id": "408bdfa1-e329-4aa3-8e01-7e77dfc2b40f",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "10/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-29",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1974,
      "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
      "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
      "opposition_pct": 49.0,
      "republican_pct": 49.0,
      "margin": 0.0,
      "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ne_20261026_lv.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 5,
      "raw_weight": 1.537885989693987,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7113813882669676,
      "normalized_weight": 0.11565384952508735,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.11565384952508735,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NE"
    },
    {
      "state": "NE",
      "poll_id": "96d6e3cb-710e-4140-86b4-4f4f2545b2bd",
      "question_id": "78584ab5-d30e-42b1-8fc7-64832f1db9c2",
      "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
      "start_date": "10/23/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-29",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 809,
      "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
      "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
      "opposition_pct": 43.01,
      "republican_pct": 48.7,
      "margin": -5.690000000000005,
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/31/polls/times-siena-ne-poll-toplines.html",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 5,
      "raw_weight": 0.9845206440331843,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.9845206440331843,
      "normalized_weight": 0.16005985579232665,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.16005985579232665,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NE"
    },
    {
      "state": "NE",
      "poll_id": "fb010920-9374-48f4-8c80-c2ca49ce24d7",
      "question_id": "52c772f8-8b10-4210-b307-dac506b8ba99",
      "pollster": "Echelon Insights",
      "start_date": "10/16/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-23",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 407,
      "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
      "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
      "opposition_pct": 46.0,
      "republican_pct": 47.0,
      "margin": -1.0,
      "url": "https://netchoice.org/netchoice-echelon-insights-poll-voters-rank-ai-regulation-far-behind-cost-of-living-want-one-national-ai-standard/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 11,
      "raw_weight": 0.5728477356296522,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5728477356296522,
      "normalized_weight": 0.09313154225007038,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.09313154225007038,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NE"
    },
    {
      "state": "NE",
      "poll_id": "f79f220c-b0e7-41a2-b25d-a3ed6c29705a",
      "question_id": "bfb5db95-f785-46de-8a75-e58628c6d0d7",
      "pollster": "GBAO",
      "start_date": "10/18/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-22",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 800,
      "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
      "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
      "opposition_pct": 46.0,
      "republican_pct": 45.0,
      "margin": 1.0,
      "url": "https://docsend.com/view/hhiqc5yfcc548rdz",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 12,
      "raw_weight": 0.38852791925933,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.38852791925933,
      "normalized_weight": 0.06316548373549899,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06316548373549899,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NE"
    },
    {
      "state": "NE",
      "poll_id": "7eceef25-8055-4ff6-966d-1b3bf5508d9c",
      "question_id": "f85fcfc3-f556-486a-af7a-b3d2068f0ed1",
      "pollster": "Impact Research",
      "start_date": "10/14/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-20",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 600,
      "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
      "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 50.0,
      "margin": -2.0,
      "url": "https://www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-digest-keisha-lance-bottoms",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 14,
      "raw_weight": 0.3149802624737183,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3149802624737183,
      "normalized_weight": 0.05120836794487088,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05120836794487088,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NE"
    },
    {
      "state": "NE",
      "poll_id": "2ecb9952-292c-4d6d-9c7c-c5a75219c5b3",
      "question_id": "4ca88fbc-daee-451d-9cf9-aa5a9bed3f61",
      "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners",
      "start_date": "10/15/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-18",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 500,
      "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
      "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 41.0,
      "margin": 7.0,
      "url": "https://concordpublicopinionpartners.org/polls/nebraska-ge-2026",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 16,
      "raw_weight": 0.2691678553165669,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2691678553165669,
      "normalized_weight": 0.043760350142995466,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.043760350142995466,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NE"
    },
    {
      "state": "NE",
      "poll_id": "185e2532-edd0-4c81-9527-3a3dcf8f228c",
      "question_id": "88ebd656-01e9-41e5-b177-15c72dc9b862",
      "pollster": "National Public Affairs",
      "start_date": "10/15/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-18",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 598,
      "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
      "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
      "opposition_pct": 43.0,
      "republican_pct": 46.0,
      "margin": -3.0,
      "url": "https://backend.natpublicaffairs.com/media/NE_Tracker_R2_Trend_Memo_102226.7.pdf",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 16,
      "raw_weight": 0.2943667709941485,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2927380612995145,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0475923101871963,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0475923101871963,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NE"
    },
    {
      "state": "NE",
      "poll_id": "85cb655e-59af-411e-8b66-96853337a024",
      "question_id": "622c9a09-59fa-44ab-8b7a-0ce9dcb9f929",
      "pollster": "National Public Affairs",
      "start_date": "10/2/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-05",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 800,
      "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
      "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
      "opposition_pct": 43.0,
      "republican_pct": 46.0,
      "margin": -3.0,
      "url": "https://backend.natpublicaffairs.com/media/Nebraska_General_Election_Memo_100926.pdf",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 29,
      "raw_weight": 0.2216824351124603,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.22045588250267234,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03584093129565548,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03584093129565548,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NE"
    },
    {
      "state": "NE",
      "poll_id": "3b9ac4c6-eb6c-4323-b9c1-aa2e503ac01a",
      "question_id": "73f526cc-f258-4095-84f3-5366ada6c7db",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "9/24/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-03",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1808,
      "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
      "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 47.0,
      "margin": 1.0,
      "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ne_20260921_lv.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 31,
      "raw_weight": 0.623944520716904,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.28861861173303227,
      "normalized_weight": 0.046922584765437966,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.046922584765437966,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NE"
    },
    {
      "state": "NE",
      "poll_id": "c15969eb-0f9d-4487-8425-7fca11a9da78",
      "question_id": "817cac01-429f-48fc-ad77-5fd6d3aab757",
      "pollster": "co/efficient",
      "start_date": "9/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-30",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1113,
      "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
      "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
      "opposition_pct": 40.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": -4.0,
      "url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/ne/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 34,
      "raw_weight": 0.44339425246230185,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.44339425246230185,
      "normalized_weight": 0.07208545655023402,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.07208545655023402,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NE"
    },
    {
      "state": "NE",
      "poll_id": "bb94417f-3a6e-4bd8-9e2d-29ba8c451b23",
      "question_id": "33fcc82a-db80-4118-a852-bf049ff83467",
      "pollster": "SurveyUSA",
      "start_date": "9/8/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-13",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 503,
      "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
      "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
      "opposition_pct": 46.0,
      "republican_pct": 42.0,
      "margin": 4.0,
      "url": "https://results.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d94236a7-5861-4b7f-9d81-d5a81ab786cc",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 51,
      "raw_weight": 0.17007305804202813,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.17007305804202813,
      "normalized_weight": 0.027649871345358488,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.027649871345358488,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NE"
    },
    {
      "state": "NE",
      "poll_id": "0a523abb-0261-44c2-bdeb-b8e381161787",
      "question_id": "01c36d81-2841-4ad6-a8d5-7e85d96f0539",
      "pollster": "GBAO",
      "start_date": "9/3/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-08",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 800,
      "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
      "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
      "opposition_pct": 47.0,
      "republican_pct": 46.0,
      "margin": 1.0,
      "url": "https://www.washingtonsun.com/newsletters/panic-week",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 56,
      "raw_weight": 0.09092696966431013,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.09092696966431013,
      "normalized_weight": 0.014782582508866306,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.014782582508866306,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NE"
    },
    {
      "state": "NE",
      "poll_id": "f057f5b3-bf14-4228-b266-cff675d04677",
      "question_id": "1f9e45b4-61ec-452b-ae00-664c41b33762",
      "pollster": "Impact Research",
      "start_date": "8/9/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-13",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 600,
      "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "b599458f-0054-405d-94b8-cf5fc9a008f6",
      "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
      "opposition_pct": 47.0,
      "republican_pct": 47.0,
      "margin": 0.0,
      "url": "https://omaha.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/article_666083f7-4e07-45ae-a534-adbb42b64734.html#tncms-source=login",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 82,
      "raw_weight": 0.03338255283795007,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.03338255283795007,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0054272164079089795,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0054272164079089795,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NE"
    },
    {
      "state": "NH",
      "poll_id": "1f1b2e83-9099-441c-9043-1c82ac488b78",
      "question_id": "7af2017b-6780-4124-ae8a-a6aef60302e8",
      "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
      "start_date": "10/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1057,
      "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
      "republican_name": "John Sununu",
      "opposition_pct": 52.3,
      "republican_pct": 44.2,
      "margin": 8.099999999999994,
      "url": "https://pollstergraph.com/poll/exclusive-atlas-us-nh-20261101-governor",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 1.2424884064632893,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
      "normalized_weight": 0.1672099970349773,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.15484036090510547,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NH"
    },
    {
      "state": "NH",
      "poll_id": "63516926-7ba4-457a-8b7c-e52aed2edb55",
      "question_id": "e72f5efd-1b9b-45fd-af9b-3dabf5364abb",
      "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
      "start_date": "10/27/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-31",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 2035,
      "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
      "republican_name": "John Sununu",
      "opposition_pct": 54.0,
      "republican_pct": 42.0,
      "margin": 12.0,
      "url": "https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1011/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 3,
      "raw_weight": 1.653617605945258,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7549332634218456,
      "normalized_weight": 0.12623238873837253,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.11689413896750764,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NH"
    },
    {
      "state": "NH",
      "poll_id": "e03c576a-cd8f-42bf-b7af-64de93b2e78c",
      "question_id": "f6c6a69f-93f5-4789-a7d3-aca5196db727",
      "pollster": "National Public Affairs",
      "start_date": "10/25/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-29",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 800,
      "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
      "republican_name": "John Sununu",
      "opposition_pct": 51.0,
      "republican_pct": 46.0,
      "margin": 5.0,
      "url": "https://backend.natpublicaffairs.com/media/NH_General_Election_Memo_103126.2.pdf",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 5,
      "raw_weight": 0.4895145039466855,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4895145039466855,
      "normalized_weight": 0.08185171875350367,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.07579660245938846,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NH"
    },
    {
      "state": "NH",
      "poll_id": "2e6c66e4-f4aa-418e-9126-6e237ed7459f",
      "question_id": "9cd4fde3-bf20-452f-a176-cb35e7eb916c",
      "pollster": "St. Anselm",
      "start_date": "10/19/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-20",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1672,
      "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
      "republican_name": "John Sununu",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.0,
      "margin": 7.0,
      "url": "https://www.anselm.edu/about/anselmian-hub/news/new-saint-anselm-college-poll-finds-democrats-leading-congressional-races-affordability-concerns-shape-election-landscape",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 14,
      "raw_weight": 1.0516127612091086,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6624504301140859,
      "normalized_weight": 0.11076833445519572,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.10257406368060741,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NH"
    },
    {
      "state": "NH",
      "poll_id": "9ca6ae7a-4091-4042-b3a3-d89b4b491a41",
      "question_id": "2efc158b-7114-4c9c-8bd4-6929f8f2c048",
      "pollster": "UMass Lowell",
      "start_date": "10/2/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-19",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 600,
      "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
      "republican_name": "John Sununu",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 41.0,
      "margin": 7.0,
      "url": "https://www.uml.edu/news/press-releases/2026/102826-new-england-polls.aspx",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 15,
      "raw_weight": 0.6095068271022377,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6095068271022377,
      "normalized_weight": 0.10191563475256359,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.09437625708263621,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NH"
    },
    {
      "state": "NH",
      "poll_id": "22e1eaa2-8ba2-4c4b-b62c-c75eddf57007",
      "question_id": "d44e3e2d-b7f7-4945-ab81-11d8c1b07d15",
      "pollster": "National Public Affairs",
      "start_date": "10/8/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-12",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 600,
      "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
      "republican_name": "John Sununu",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.0,
      "margin": 7.0,
      "url": "https://backend.natpublicaffairs.com/media/NH_General_Election_Memo_101526.2.pdf",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 22,
      "raw_weight": 0.2418829446309729,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2418829446309729,
      "normalized_weight": 0.040445246454556556,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03745324244344949,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NH"
    },
    {
      "state": "NH",
      "poll_id": "7e22772a-4e0b-4e0f-abbe-0afd9e57484f",
      "question_id": "583112e3-bbf9-4342-a6a3-44a46eeaf71c",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "9/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-05",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1519,
      "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
      "republican_name": "John Sununu",
      "opposition_pct": 51.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.0,
      "margin": 8.0,
      "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_nh_20260921_lv.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 29,
      "raw_weight": 0.6109352338619688,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6109352338619688,
      "normalized_weight": 0.10215447864262296,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.09459743210083227,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NH"
    },
    {
      "state": "NH",
      "poll_id": "16fd8632-e35b-4456-ae81-53c7b9b050a3",
      "question_id": "903844c3-8b83-4446-8e68-03aa4da0c847",
      "pollster": "St. Anselm",
      "start_date": "9/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-29",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1042,
      "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
      "republican_name": "John Sununu",
      "opposition_pct": 51.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": 7.0,
      "url": "https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/voter-research/politics/2026-midterm-election-poll-new-hampshire/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 35,
      "raw_weight": 0.4150893347811388,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2614803837539752,
      "normalized_weight": 0.04372213419220692,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.040487716990071,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NH"
    },
    {
      "state": "NH",
      "poll_id": "b793fcb5-4f42-4c49-94aa-37bff6ae998e",
      "question_id": "078645fe-eb48-4089-8bee-ecb0989fd623",
      "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
      "start_date": "9/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-27",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1082,
      "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
      "republican_name": "John Sununu",
      "opposition_pct": 47.4,
      "republican_pct": 40.5,
      "margin": 6.899999999999999,
      "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/nh-gen-senate-0926/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 37,
      "raw_weight": 0.197980231022253,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.197980231022253,
      "normalized_weight": 0.033104273842215044,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03065533042356182,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NH"
    },
    {
      "state": "NH",
      "poll_id": "36e4cd66-5680-44d1-b419-438727e79ac8",
      "question_id": "6c27da1d-636a-478c-a62a-7f8a5abc4fc0",
      "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
      "start_date": "9/15/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-22",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 613,
      "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
      "republican_name": "John Sununu",
      "opposition_pct": 49.82,
      "republican_pct": 44.82,
      "margin": 5.0,
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/09/24/polls/times-siena-poll-nh-toplines.html",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 42,
      "raw_weight": 0.25269382000093843,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.25269382000093843,
      "normalized_weight": 0.042252932893114,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03912720228743507,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NH"
    },
    {
      "state": "NH",
      "poll_id": "b43da69c-6c45-48c7-9257-45e13bb3984b",
      "question_id": "e218d656-69f5-475c-bf9d-4fda9a20f4dc",
      "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
      "start_date": "9/17/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-21",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1392,
      "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
      "republican_name": "John Sununu",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 42.0,
      "margin": 8.0,
      "url": "https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1005/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 43,
      "raw_weight": 0.3684251248975464,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.16819873038695338,
      "normalized_weight": 0.028124509209289418,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.026043952116896394,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NH"
    },
    {
      "state": "NH",
      "poll_id": "455c3365-5ec1-4a4d-b7f3-e230b9c3fc64",
      "question_id": "0b88de69-f360-443a-bb14-c0a037c1e3d6",
      "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
      "start_date": "9/16/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-17",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1200,
      "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
      "republican_name": "John Sununu",
      "opposition_pct": 47.8,
      "republican_pct": 39.9,
      "margin": 7.899999999999999,
      "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/nh-top-line-tabs/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 47,
      "raw_weight": 0.29976518909025046,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.29976518909025046,
      "normalized_weight": 0.050123736378970184,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.046415750065521566,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NH"
    },
    {
      "state": "NH",
      "poll_id": "d07181b1-c252-41b9-9cb7-6714cf8bab4a",
      "question_id": "6088aea8-be34-49b7-8845-de9c4354899b",
      "pollster": "co/efficient",
      "start_date": "9/9/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-11",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 958,
      "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
      "republican_name": "John Sununu",
      "opposition_pct": 46.0,
      "republican_pct": 46.0,
      "margin": 0.0,
      "url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/nh/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 53,
      "raw_weight": 0.21971755588921812,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.21971755588921812,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03673897186876862,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.034021145651074225,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NH"
    },
    {
      "state": "NH",
      "poll_id": "a7102e62-abb1-46c2-a128-21e53a60375c",
      "question_id": "c75b4bc8-eda8-4398-8de1-d68c16b85e36",
      "pollster": "Fabrizio, Lee & Associates",
      "start_date": "8/27/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-30",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 600,
      "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
      "republican_name": "John Sununu",
      "opposition_pct": 36.0,
      "republican_pct": 37.0,
      "margin": -1.0,
      "url": "https://www.unionleader.com/news/politics/voters/national-senate-gop-poll-sununu-vs-pappas-is-a-dead-heat/article_4c03176f-b04f-4a9a-b85f-ce15695fc83c.html",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 65,
      "raw_weight": 0.05850735890335031,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.05850735890335031,
      "normalized_weight": 0.009783015308753557,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.009059300568199298,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NH"
    },
    {
      "state": "NH",
      "poll_id": "da531189-726e-4fe8-af41-495962027a60",
      "question_id": "b40bb97c-487e-4e89-8f73-b291b4291331",
      "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
      "start_date": "8/20/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-24",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1846,
      "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
      "republican_name": "John Sununu",
      "opposition_pct": 43.0,
      "republican_pct": 45.0,
      "margin": -2.0,
      "url": "https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/988/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 71,
      "raw_weight": 0.16837288079681795,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.07686800619120106,
      "normalized_weight": 0.012853099087315344,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.011902269820701453,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NH"
    },
    {
      "state": "NH",
      "poll_id": "ceea1397-da26-4ef3-8b12-629a82c88d6c",
      "question_id": "be5a893d-e479-4bcf-ba2b-aeffcb50bbd2",
      "pollster": "St. Anselm",
      "start_date": "8/17/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-18",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1411,
      "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "aa09842f-5e29-446e-9b66-ce1ff1490df6",
      "republican_name": "John Sununu",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 41.0,
      "margin": 7.0,
      "url": "https://www.anselm.edu/about/anselmian-hub/news/new-saint-anselm-college-poll-finds-republicans-facing-midterm-headwinds-democratic-lead-widens",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 77,
      "raw_weight": 0.1207566985160854,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.07606918613193879,
      "normalized_weight": 0.01271952838757462,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.011778580234427048,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NH"
    },
    {
      "state": "NM",
      "poll_id": "9d7b82a6-e65d-460b-a09f-ac6d2fa865c8",
      "question_id": "dca9ba8b-08fb-4649-9f51-30d1de8ddeb7",
      "pollster": "Research Co.",
      "start_date": "10/31/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-02",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 450,
      "opposition_name": "Ben Ray Luj\u00e1n",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "0fc6395b-6961-4030-83bf-f71230ee9157",
      "republican_name": "Larry Marker",
      "opposition_pct": 56.0,
      "republican_pct": 37.0,
      "margin": 19.0,
      "url": "https://researchco.ca/2026/11/02/midterms-2026-two/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 1,
      "raw_weight": 0.8379070991704293,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8379070991704293,
      "normalized_weight": 0.4514746673428378,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.41282814871582163,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NM"
    },
    {
      "state": "NM",
      "poll_id": "ec82f919-7670-441e-90f0-e9a83b39b77d",
      "question_id": "b1ab46eb-f8ad-47cd-a9c2-dca4f0520c1d",
      "pollster": "Research & Polling Inc.",
      "start_date": "10/1/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-09",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1125,
      "opposition_name": "Ben Ray Luj\u00e1n",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "0fc6395b-6961-4030-83bf-f71230ee9157",
      "republican_name": "Larry Marker",
      "opposition_pct": 53.0,
      "republican_pct": 37.0,
      "margin": 16.0,
      "url": "https://www.abqjournal.com/news/journal-poll-haaland-maintains-lead-over-hull-as-new-mexicos-race-for-governor-nears-homestretch/3139307",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 25,
      "raw_weight": 0.5999728437294882,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5999728437294882,
      "normalized_weight": 0.3232727593616103,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.29560040558414297,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NM"
    },
    {
      "state": "NM",
      "poll_id": "6374ca46-47a8-4e37-b131-bb3a2d48d8a8",
      "question_id": "4490659f-bc7e-4165-8f5e-c9f57799d567",
      "pollster": "SurveyUSA",
      "start_date": "9/25/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-30",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 567,
      "opposition_name": "Ben Ray Luj\u00e1n",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "0fc6395b-6961-4030-83bf-f71230ee9157",
      "republican_name": "Larry Marker",
      "opposition_pct": 54.0,
      "republican_pct": 36.0,
      "margin": 18.0,
      "url": "https://www.kob.com/new-mexico/kob-poll-finds-haaland-leading-hull-by-6-points-in-head-to-head-race/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 34,
      "raw_weight": 0.3164710635121857,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3164710635121857,
      "normalized_weight": 0.17051850767734908,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.15592201498377464,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NM"
    },
    {
      "state": "NM",
      "poll_id": "361a1729-e7e4-48e0-b0d8-5ef49ee4f5eb",
      "question_id": "afa5f143-eb40-4d1e-9c54-ef8376aeae57",
      "pollster": "Research & Polling Inc.",
      "start_date": "8/21/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-28",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 516,
      "opposition_name": "Ben Ray Luj\u00e1n",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "0fc6395b-6961-4030-83bf-f71230ee9157",
      "republican_name": "Larry Marker",
      "opposition_pct": 53.0,
      "republican_pct": 38.0,
      "margin": 15.0,
      "url": "https://www.abqjournal.com/news/journal-poll-haaland-leads-hull-by-closer-than-expected-margin-in-new-mexicos-race-for-governor/3111874",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 67,
      "raw_weight": 0.10158280290204144,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.10158280290204144,
      "normalized_weight": 0.05473406561820278,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05004879479471289,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NM"
    },
    {
      "state": "NC",
      "poll_id": "5e6a38ed-064b-4310-8cc2-eff8991ebae5",
      "question_id": "42aa4b3b-4a87-475e-b67f-ba3943b753a4",
      "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
      "start_date": "10/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1459,
      "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
      "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
      "opposition_pct": 56.4,
      "republican_pct": 41.5,
      "margin": 14.899999999999999,
      "url": "https://pollstergraph.com/poll/exclusive-atlas-us-nc-20261101-senate",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 1.4597634900144252,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
      "normalized_weight": 0.11446683257964814,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.10620896229036564,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NC"
    },
    {
      "state": "NC",
      "poll_id": "52d83e1b-b2b1-4d0f-bb53-8adc59029127",
      "question_id": "5c4cb292-9d2d-40b0-a22d-dcc3baf9c1f8",
      "pollster": "East Carolina University Center for Survey Research",
      "start_date": "10/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-29",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1041,
      "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
      "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
      "opposition_pct": 54.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.9,
      "margin": 9.100000000000001,
      "url": "https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/ecu-poll-cooper-leads-whatley-by-9-points-as-election-day-nears",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 5,
      "raw_weight": 1.1168013520915674,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6663257172909025,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0762721943246517,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0707697629808503,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NC"
    },
    {
      "state": "NC",
      "poll_id": "affe090f-1582-4758-9ad6-3d3a3e136282",
      "question_id": "1e48c04f-95be-44b9-bf71-c7904767952e",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "10/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-29",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 2123,
      "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
      "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
      "opposition_pct": 55.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": 11.0,
      "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_nc_20261026_lv.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 5,
      "raw_weight": 1.5479807801590098,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5699765698400641,
      "normalized_weight": 0.06524341259420474,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.060536620012535326,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NC"
    },
    {
      "state": "NC",
      "poll_id": "e8fc52e0-346a-4e42-9092-b1a5bd07dfe4",
      "question_id": "b67ca8ad-8617-461a-bf6b-a886d8d32022",
      "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
      "start_date": "10/24/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-25",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 722,
      "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
      "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
      "opposition_pct": 52.4,
      "republican_pct": 43.4,
      "margin": 9.0,
      "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/f/north-carolina-senate-cooper-holds-a-9-point-lead-over-whatley",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 9,
      "raw_weight": 0.8150422427050906,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7530238336295543,
      "normalized_weight": 0.086196253092559,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0799778799497079,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NC"
    },
    {
      "state": "NC",
      "poll_id": "41c3566b-9863-48a7-ae10-148260fd80a0",
      "question_id": "7faeed65-472b-4f0d-8a15-d6ebd68e636e",
      "pollster": "High Point University",
      "start_date": "10/1/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-20",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 620,
      "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
      "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
      "opposition_pct": 54.0,
      "republican_pct": 40.0,
      "margin": 14.0,
      "url": "https://www.highpoint.edu/blog/2026/10/hpu-yougov-poll-north-carolina-likely-voters-weigh-in-on-u-s-senate-race-and-more/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 14,
      "raw_weight": 0.6403738010660531,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6403738010660531,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0733015606750208,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06801343688916253,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NC"
    },
    {
      "state": "NC",
      "poll_id": "18d80fb0-669e-456f-ae5e-8fd9d8f0b142",
      "question_id": "12c5b963-5590-4f8c-86e6-8189d2c41e19",
      "pollster": "Harper Polling",
      "start_date": "10/18/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-20",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 600,
      "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
      "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
      "opposition_pct": 49.4,
      "republican_pct": 39.1,
      "margin": 10.299999999999997,
      "url": "https://www.carolinajournal.com/polls/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 14,
      "raw_weight": 0.6299605249474366,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6299605249474366,
      "normalized_weight": 0.07210958594094548,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06690745363856124,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NC"
    },
    {
      "state": "NC",
      "poll_id": "cde4fbaa-f2f0-4516-8b3b-c7c9183424aa",
      "question_id": "4ad27b69-8809-4f84-be9c-9ec09bdf6901",
      "pollster": "ActiVote",
      "start_date": "10/8/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-20",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 400,
      "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
      "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
      "opposition_pct": 56.9,
      "republican_pct": 43.1,
      "margin": 13.799999999999997,
      "url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/nc-u-s-senate/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 14,
      "raw_weight": 0.5143606147390174,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5143606147390174,
      "normalized_weight": 0.058877230372896,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.054629707134465584,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NC"
    },
    {
      "state": "NC",
      "poll_id": "ae31f5c9-9675-4672-a3af-22c60fc5c180",
      "question_id": "73ca45dc-3f77-48b0-96fe-4e6cb2635965",
      "pollster": "SurveyUSA",
      "start_date": "10/7/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-11",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 643,
      "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
      "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
      "opposition_pct": 54.0,
      "republican_pct": 40.0,
      "margin": 14.0,
      "url": "https://www.wral.com/news/nccapitol/wral-nc-us-senate-poll-cooper-whatley-tillis-trump-stein-approval-midterm-october-2026/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 23,
      "raw_weight": 0.4845407890615467,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4845407890615467,
      "normalized_weight": 0.05546384937951867,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.051462574393581824,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NC"
    },
    {
      "state": "NC",
      "poll_id": "c73d5b8e-548c-474a-9468-60b616a9e286",
      "question_id": "8345076f-1440-4dd2-a40f-85ed51012c54",
      "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
      "start_date": "10/8/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-10",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1091,
      "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
      "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
      "opposition_pct": 48.8,
      "republican_pct": 40.9,
      "margin": 7.899999999999999,
      "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/nc-senate-gen-1011/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 24,
      "raw_weight": 0.3053321063142307,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3053321063142307,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03495039909466237,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03242900616556604,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NC"
    },
    {
      "state": "NC",
      "poll_id": "103c1a4d-03ff-4028-a49f-42de41c1d63d",
      "question_id": "4c9044a2-98ed-489e-9bd7-16663be9c77c",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "9/29/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-08",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 560,
      "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
      "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
      "opposition_pct": 54.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.0,
      "margin": 11.0,
      "url": "https://eloncdn.blob.core.windows.net/eu3/sites/819/2026/10/Elon-Poll-news-release-10-20-26.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 26,
      "raw_weight": 0.4095572178608488,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.15080162569304478,
      "normalized_weight": 0.017261784440944523,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01601648417655843,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NC"
    },
    {
      "state": "NC",
      "poll_id": "14dfbcd7-9e7f-4427-acde-296beae6d3bd",
      "question_id": "d505a4b4-4ecf-48b1-bfaa-c74341f586f4",
      "pollster": "Change Research",
      "start_date": "10/1/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-07",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 829,
      "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
      "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 40.0,
      "margin": 10.0,
      "url": "https://docs.google.com/document/d/1nVWsUhnA6dAlqOgHS2j2K6kFoJLJFjQbkN8KAXhyK0s/edit?tab=t.0",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 27,
      "raw_weight": 0.24106439964382262,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.24106439964382262,
      "normalized_weight": 0.027593878274942835,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02560319973132039,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NC"
    },
    {
      "state": "NC",
      "poll_id": "f882e763-b5b3-425a-96ff-125442124076",
      "question_id": "efa908d6-cb33-4ee1-bc51-9d9ed7d3a4f6",
      "pollster": "East Carolina University Center for Survey Research",
      "start_date": "9/30/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-03",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 810,
      "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
      "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.0,
      "margin": 7.0,
      "url": "https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/ecu-poll-cooper-s-lead-holds-at-7-points",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 31,
      "raw_weight": 0.4176276761451951,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.24917238893633054,
      "normalized_weight": 0.028521974127845916,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02646434086033905,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NC"
    },
    {
      "state": "NC",
      "poll_id": "c82950e6-d6b9-41a4-a67e-20076d1dcd58",
      "question_id": "20c4780c-d3e0-4595-957f-4087ac2efcb3",
      "pollster": "Big Data Poll",
      "start_date": "9/27/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-29",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 642,
      "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
      "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
      "opposition_pct": 50.8,
      "republican_pct": 38.5,
      "margin": 12.299999999999997,
      "url": "https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/tar-heel-state-poll-roy-cooper-holds-solid-lead-over-michael-whatley-for-us-senate-in-north-carolina/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 35,
      "raw_weight": 0.3258181169769007,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3258181169769007,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03729536784741111,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.034604804099517585,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NC"
    },
    {
      "state": "NC",
      "poll_id": "799d56a1-25fd-4713-a89d-3f1e78a52295",
      "question_id": "b3af3672-8b79-4552-9395-7099f9183e79",
      "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
      "start_date": "9/21/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-22",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 686,
      "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
      "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
      "opposition_pct": 48.4,
      "republican_pct": 43.3,
      "margin": 5.100000000000001,
      "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/f/roy-cooper-leads-michael-whatley-by-five-in-north-carolina",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 42,
      "raw_weight": 0.26731691553909065,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2469761663704459,
      "normalized_weight": 0.028270579487089154,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.026231082340657758,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NC"
    },
    {
      "state": "NC",
      "poll_id": "1b31cf9e-f9c1-4902-9af0-2d83656d3e9a",
      "question_id": "1520d6a8-aeab-4656-964f-959930d6d997",
      "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research",
      "start_date": "9/17/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-20",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1115,
      "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
      "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
      "opposition_pct": 53.0,
      "republican_pct": 42.0,
      "margin": 11.0,
      "url": "https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/voter-research/politics/2026-midterm-election-poll-north-carolina/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 44,
      "raw_weight": 0.3190305655625145,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3190305655625145,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03651841833603481,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.033883905307303126,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NC"
    },
    {
      "state": "NC",
      "poll_id": "8f08ac98-5fe9-4052-a192-4157657541eb",
      "question_id": "9cf6ab50-ec7a-4b46-8274-84effc1c2c0d",
      "pollster": "Opinion Diagnostics",
      "start_date": "9/17/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-20",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 857,
      "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
      "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
      "opposition_pct": 51.7,
      "republican_pct": 43.5,
      "margin": 8.200000000000003,
      "url": "https://www.commoncause.org/north-carolina/press/2026_poll_1/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 44,
      "raw_weight": 0.27969536601045286,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.27969536601045286,
      "normalized_weight": 0.032015842634421914,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.029706154581394202,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NC"
    },
    {
      "state": "NC",
      "poll_id": "98ed8008-ca69-45b6-ae61-76fc48539cea",
      "question_id": "714bfa7d-29d4-4bea-92ca-8d19fba64784",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "9/15/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-18",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 3742,
      "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
      "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
      "opposition_pct": 53.0,
      "republican_pct": 41.0,
      "margin": 12.0,
      "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_nc_20260915.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 46,
      "raw_weight": 0.3999818958196589,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.14727592997246175,
      "normalized_weight": 0.01685820921916976,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01564202369272372,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NC"
    },
    {
      "state": "NC",
      "poll_id": "45f311bf-7b92-4f5d-a776-790a211fe758",
      "question_id": "6ba14866-f5ac-4e7a-af91-3a76d9386328",
      "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
      "start_date": "9/16/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-17",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1200,
      "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
      "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
      "opposition_pct": 48.4,
      "republican_pct": 42.5,
      "margin": 5.899999999999999,
      "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/nc-top-line-tabs/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 47,
      "raw_weight": 0.29976518909025046,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.29976518909025046,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03431317171280027,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03183774966405074,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NC"
    },
    {
      "state": "NC",
      "poll_id": "0aeb9bc2-03f1-4b0b-b114-194be045b6d2",
      "question_id": "f2953182-6290-48b3-99ec-45a0389481ca",
      "pollster": "High Point University",
      "start_date": "9/6/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-16",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 706,
      "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
      "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 42.0,
      "margin": 8.0,
      "url": "https://www.highpoint.edu/blog/2026/09/hpu-poll-127-north-carolina-likely-voters-weigh-in-on-u-s-senate-race-and-more/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 48,
      "raw_weight": 0.22246319171176523,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.22246319171176523,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0254646569208048,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.023627584739509253,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NC"
    },
    {
      "state": "NC",
      "poll_id": "ec039041-0d8f-44dd-a4ac-b148ceedb476",
      "question_id": "9397086a-0f74-4db2-8ff8-d8dbfbf0390c",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "9/4/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-15",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 885,
      "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
      "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 37.0,
      "margin": 11.0,
      "url": "https://www.catawba.edu/news/all-news/2026/yougov-39/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 49,
      "raw_weight": 0.24098648487745492,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.08873278776378402,
      "normalized_weight": 0.010156961161282516,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.009424217309522753,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NC"
    },
    {
      "state": "NC",
      "poll_id": "c34d03cc-ae09-401a-881a-e5d201d48245",
      "question_id": "87e2b7dd-d5ed-4191-be22-b9ae3adc1b2e",
      "pollster": "Harper Polling",
      "start_date": "9/13/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-15",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 608,
      "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
      "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
      "opposition_pct": 49.2,
      "republican_pct": 34.1,
      "margin": 15.100000000000001,
      "url": "https://www.carolinajournal.com/polls/september-2026-roy-coopers-lead-grows-to-15-points-in-nc-senate-race/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 49,
      "raw_weight": 0.1997435854122421,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.1997435854122421,
      "normalized_weight": 0.022864015550241763,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.021214558930791248,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NC"
    },
    {
      "state": "NC",
      "poll_id": "9aa00d2f-5663-4994-9428-45a42bacb098",
      "question_id": "9146c7ad-f9cd-4225-8627-22bf045d0687",
      "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
      "start_date": "9/8/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-10",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1084,
      "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
      "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
      "opposition_pct": 48.2,
      "republican_pct": 42.3,
      "margin": 5.900000000000006,
      "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/NC-Gen-Sen-Poll-Full-Report-0911.pdf",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 54,
      "raw_weight": 0.11306596365053867,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.11306596365053867,
      "normalized_weight": 0.012942302731642793,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.012008618669683913,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NC"
    },
    {
      "state": "NC",
      "poll_id": "b89871e7-49f8-4591-9507-da2e48fc92cf",
      "question_id": "7f3db0e5-cb98-42fa-9967-e3af2cf35eb6",
      "pollster": "East Carolina University Center for Survey Research",
      "start_date": "8/31/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-03",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 675,
      "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
      "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
      "opposition_pct": 51.7,
      "republican_pct": 43.6,
      "margin": 8.100000000000001,
      "url": "https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/ecu-poll-cooper-leads-whatley-by-7-points",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 61,
      "raw_weight": 0.1416301769101963,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.08450189377276682,
      "normalized_weight": 0.009672664127150512,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.008974858449176273,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NC"
    },
    {
      "state": "NC",
      "poll_id": "60831a1c-80bb-4818-aae3-68ff8da9d86d",
      "question_id": "945f46e5-101e-4128-abd8-22a3b2774e9a",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "8/21/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-31",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 565,
      "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
      "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
      "opposition_pct": 49.0,
      "republican_pct": 38.0,
      "margin": 11.0,
      "url": "https://eloncdn.blob.core.windows.net/eu3/sites/819/2026/09/Elon-University-Poll-NR-9-10-26.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 64,
      "raw_weight": 0.1173610131538453,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.043213086730645375,
      "normalized_weight": 0.004946465164046599,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.004589617099025414,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NC"
    },
    {
      "state": "NC",
      "poll_id": "f6b07086-4cb6-46d6-9b3b-19e75f3c66d7",
      "question_id": "9d3c5cf2-17c3-4478-956c-f9497382fe2d",
      "pollster": "High Point University",
      "start_date": "8/3/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-12",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 660,
      "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
      "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 45.0,
      "margin": 5.0,
      "url": "https://www.highpoint.edu/blog/2026/08/hpu-poll-126-majority-of-north-carolina-voters-say-country-headed-in-wrong-direction/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 83,
      "raw_weight": 0.06775028424455602,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.06775028424455602,
      "normalized_weight": 0.007755160443845167,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.007195687384491604,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NC"
    },
    {
      "state": "NC",
      "poll_id": "beb4de30-0917-49b6-8d55-5dd12d34da46",
      "question_id": "2ae8b07d-b652-4d44-9495-bf347c9afde7",
      "pollster": "Harper Polling",
      "start_date": "8/9/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-10",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 600,
      "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
      "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
      "opposition_pct": 51.5,
      "republican_pct": 39.0,
      "margin": 12.5,
      "url": "https://www.carolinajournal.com/polls/august-2026-coopers-lead-over-whatley-grows-to-12-5-points/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 85,
      "raw_weight": 0.06047073615774324,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.06047073615774324,
      "normalized_weight": 0.006921893631736471,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.006422534136248401,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NC"
    },
    {
      "state": "NC",
      "poll_id": "e0b6f1e1-439e-4c29-8868-a65772d11702",
      "question_id": "26b3d4b5-dc08-48b4-98a9-62dbfa3b7273",
      "pollster": "Change Research",
      "start_date": "8/3/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-06",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 915,
      "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "f757bae3-9bd1-4d12-a564-2726a1f92549",
      "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
      "opposition_pct": 50.05,
      "republican_pct": 42.93,
      "margin": 7.119999999999997,
      "url": "https://carolinaforward.org/news/the-august-2026-carolina-forward-poll/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 89,
      "raw_weight": 0.032719837267062214,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.032719837267062214,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0037453361344821426,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.003475139962444311,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "NC"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "b511d518-7c80-408f-8eb2-667b9c308aac",
      "question_id": "9f7a3a17-ae3b-4f5c-81ff-62963bf10109",
      "pollster": "Emerson College",
      "start_date": "10/31/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 930,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 45.8,
      "republican_pct": 48.3,
      "margin": -2.5,
      "url": "https://pollvault.substack.com/p/new-poll-vault-emerson-senate-and",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 1.1654571905443254,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
      "normalized_weight": 0.06270005078389004,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05828765035413234,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "0251982d-6972-49dc-85a5-59a59f153bef",
      "question_id": "1d69fe17-8af5-4539-aa96-27f168ad5871",
      "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
      "start_date": "10/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1801,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 51.4,
      "republican_pct": 43.9,
      "margin": 7.5,
      "url": "https://pollstergraph.com/poll/exclusive-atlas-us-oh-20261101-governor",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 1.621853819118376,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
      "normalized_weight": 0.06270005078389004,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05828765035413234,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "f554f677-d120-41a4-b4e9-afc7946e6da3",
      "question_id": "0dca5afc-824e-4584-baa4-2f028a5b2592",
      "pollster": "Survey 160",
      "start_date": "10/27/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1122,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 46.0,
      "margin": 4.0,
      "url": "https://www.survey160.com/methodological-research-blog/survey-160-pre-election-surveys-in-four-states",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 1.280121759781909,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
      "normalized_weight": 0.06270005078389004,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05828765035413234,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "b2df3f8d-e5f5-404e-878e-e17ffb9c30f7",
      "question_id": "d5cbc358-f8a4-4d0b-bff7-29e655e7779f",
      "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
      "start_date": "10/31/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1092,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 46.6,
      "republican_pct": 45.1,
      "margin": 1.5,
      "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/oh-senate-gen-1102/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 0.6314459395863413,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6314459395863413,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03959169247934476,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03680550014414523,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "2483fb30-fb88-456c-b51f-b03bad5ba693",
      "question_id": "11580672-bf47-4a2c-bfef-ea7a8ed07857",
      "pollster": "Research Co.",
      "start_date": "10/30/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 450,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 45.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": 1.0,
      "url": "https://researchco.ca/2026/11/01/midterms-2026-one/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 0.8107017458981602,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8107017458981602,
      "normalized_weight": 0.05083104063840297,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.047253899906396606,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "624f1dc6-345c-46f6-b412-6fdb12d1797f",
      "question_id": "9a7b6bdd-0c80-421c-9278-f44dd1cba7d1",
      "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
      "start_date": "10/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 717,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 49.3,
      "republican_pct": 43.7,
      "margin": 5.599999999999994,
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/11/01/polls/times-siena-poll-crosstabs.html",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 1.0233269913107141,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.750097377928977,
      "normalized_weight": 0.047031143689009625,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.04372141369627567,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "dbd1593d-daad-413f-93bf-083273ec85f9",
      "question_id": "6d483faf-e8cd-4b28-bd73-75222ad82034",
      "pollster": "ActiVote",
      "start_date": "10/18/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-31",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 400,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 50.2,
      "republican_pct": 49.8,
      "margin": 0.4000000000000057,
      "url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/oh-u-s-senate/2026-10-31/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 3,
      "raw_weight": 0.7395202751368115,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6056566134443708,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03797470042056091,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03530230091911337,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "a6c01fbe-a7ca-4d4b-ab7a-00a70463db67",
      "question_id": "84c90a52-46f3-46be-ba7f-deb55121fc78",
      "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
      "start_date": "10/29/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-30",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1200,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 48.8,
      "republican_pct": 47.0,
      "margin": 1.7999999999999972,
      "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/final-insideradvantage-ohio-survey-brown-49-husted-47-acton-49-ramaswamy-46/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 4,
      "raw_weight": 1.239298577035207,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4323171898449433,
      "normalized_weight": 0.027106309758026578,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.025198753203763104,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "178f4a20-3a0b-4f63-9a03-19811b8277aa",
      "question_id": "c3cd310c-e707-4c50-8ec0-e52f2a356df5",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "10/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-29",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 2084,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 48.0,
      "margin": 2.0,
      "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_oh_20261026_lv.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 5,
      "raw_weight": 1.5479807801590098,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.656050459530536,
      "normalized_weight": 0.041134397129359006,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03823963979978373,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "ef2061ce-8aa7-4866-8db0-835e849dd546",
      "question_id": "2c97932b-20ea-4c93-8abb-70414417da3c",
      "pollster": "Suffolk University",
      "start_date": "10/21/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-26",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 500,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 46.6,
      "republican_pct": 43.8,
      "margin": 2.8000000000000043,
      "url": "https://www.suffolk.edu/academics/research-at-suffolk/political-research-center/polls/other-states#collapse-October-28-2026-Ohio-Governor-and-US-Senate-with-USA-TODAY-Network-Ohio",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 8,
      "raw_weight": 0.7010214122078596,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7010214122078596,
      "normalized_weight": 0.043954078146027115,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0408608909655318,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "a516eb44-5932-41e4-8d9c-00b5db2cd325",
      "question_id": "6f37b46c-a2bd-46d5-8413-123428560f69",
      "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners",
      "start_date": "10/22/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-24",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 469,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 46.0,
      "republican_pct": 42.0,
      "margin": 4.0,
      "url": "https://concordpublicopinionpartners.org/polls/ohio-ge-2026-oct",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 10,
      "raw_weight": 0.3177848460536022,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3177848460536022,
      "normalized_weight": 0.01992512598591154,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.018522931994614137,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "0c92af41-2b09-484c-bb4c-a0232bdc729f",
      "question_id": "22073fe2-060c-45e3-be99-6931cb5ac20a",
      "pollster": "Echelon Insights",
      "start_date": "10/16/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-23",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 508,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 47.0,
      "republican_pct": 47.0,
      "margin": 0.0,
      "url": "https://netchoice.org/netchoice-echelon-insights-poll-voters-rank-ai-regulation-far-behind-cost-of-living-want-one-national-ai-standard/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 11,
      "raw_weight": 0.6399909787711444,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6399909787711444,
      "normalized_weight": 0.04012746687018225,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0373035704004114,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "9d36718e-c579-4afb-8a4e-3f1c33a9b253",
      "question_id": "0286e6b4-62b2-4396-ab6e-83a01bb2b02c",
      "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
      "start_date": "10/21/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-22",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1200,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 46.7,
      "republican_pct": 44.4,
      "margin": 2.3000000000000043,
      "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-senate-surveys-mi-el-sayed-47-rogers-46-ia-hinson-47-turek-45-oh-brown-47-husted-44/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 12,
      "raw_weight": 0.9516951530106197,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3319895477673223,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0208157615047318,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0193508906814882,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "a1c11dbe-2c91-49d2-b8c6-47bc2ba09d8c",
      "question_id": "2d708401-11af-410e-a373-d2731f3a0f30",
      "pollster": "Verasight",
      "start_date": "10/1/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-20",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 531,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 47.5,
      "republican_pct": 43.6,
      "margin": 3.8999999999999986,
      "url": "https://votehub.com/2026/10/22/votehub-verasight-poll-surveys-ohios-u-s-senate-and-gubernatorial-races/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 14,
      "raw_weight": 0.592631827316053,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.592631827316053,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03715804566886608,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03454311673932863,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "20d3b9e8-26ea-4043-b062-ee2269287827",
      "question_id": "43e0fc8f-b765-4675-834b-8e27c76b5188",
      "pollster": "Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research",
      "start_date": "10/15/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-19",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1592,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 52.0,
      "republican_pct": 47.0,
      "margin": 5.0,
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-gender-gap-pocketbook-pain-shape-ohio-senate-race",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 15,
      "raw_weight": 0.9928290613834333,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.9268311800038851,
      "normalized_weight": 0.05811236205433633,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05402281175737434,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "33c1ac04-cae6-451f-8aa6-f8848189ba80",
      "question_id": "a101b63d-1983-4681-9db7-fa3a2dd3fc0a",
      "pollster": "Marist University",
      "start_date": "10/15/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-18",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1176,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": 4.0,
      "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-ohio-october-2026/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 16,
      "raw_weight": 0.8256041142281549,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6556106620769396,
      "normalized_weight": 0.04110682180668389,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03821400503958186,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "c7adfed3-331d-435d-bcb8-8de570669f8b",
      "question_id": "74edcff2-4435-49bb-ad28-48fa282470db",
      "pollster": "ActiVote",
      "start_date": "9/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-18",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 400,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 49.8,
      "republican_pct": 50.2,
      "margin": -0.4000000000000057,
      "url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/oh-u-s-senate/2026-10-18/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 16,
      "raw_weight": 0.4815020974765374,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3943433865556292,
      "normalized_weight": 0.024725350363329134,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.022985349435018967,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "a89e1fc7-6157-4e45-8092-1d95f393dadf",
      "question_id": "38dbc8ac-375a-45fe-afb1-0fa2af23cf4e",
      "pollster": "New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group",
      "start_date": "10/9/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-13",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 959,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 49.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.0,
      "margin": 6.0,
      "url": "https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/survey-research/battleground-district-project/senate-battleground-district-project-october",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 21,
      "raw_weight": 0.6321260422837627,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6321260422837627,
      "normalized_weight": 0.039634334953011344,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03684514173237743,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "9d64351d-7a56-4c00-bff7-581f0e49a5eb",
      "question_id": "26bdb66c-2288-414d-89d6-8a548e1badbd",
      "pollster": "Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov",
      "start_date": "9/29/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-09",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1000,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 42.0,
      "margin": 6.0,
      "url": "https://scholarworks.bgsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1030&context=depo",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 25,
      "raw_weight": 0.5656598217718638,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5656598217718638,
      "normalized_weight": 0.035466899551502055,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.032970981910819215,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "2fd5ea27-05ab-4e8d-b6c3-0efa31a6dff8",
      "question_id": "9716e5ac-26fd-4e40-8d51-ca7c51fb9485",
      "pollster": "co/efficient",
      "start_date": "10/5/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-06",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 925,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 43.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": -1.0,
      "url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/oh/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 28,
      "raw_weight": 0.4927446454877258,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4927446454877258,
      "normalized_weight": 0.030895114295570302,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.028720927610059455,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "81f0f873-c002-4d40-9e8f-24dbdf2fc363",
      "question_id": "006be988-bdf8-452f-9a4d-2e57fe41d983",
      "pollster": "CNN/SSRS",
      "start_date": "9/29/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-05",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 760,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 49.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.0,
      "margin": 6.0,
      "url": "https://edition.cnn.com/2026/10/08/politics/cnn-polls-ohio-iowa-senate-governor-midterms",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 29,
      "raw_weight": 0.4321386209795217,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4321386209795217,
      "normalized_weight": 0.027095113481096222,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02518834484417128,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "b78d8930-8d58-4c99-969c-808e3a8eeaab",
      "question_id": "446a3e14-49e3-40b4-80b5-5b227c87f877",
      "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
      "start_date": "9/22/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 616,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 48.76,
      "republican_pct": 46.09,
      "margin": 2.6699999999999946,
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/03/polls/times-siena-ohio-poll-crosstabs.html",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 33,
      "raw_weight": 0.34093186550081833,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.24990262207102307,
      "normalized_weight": 0.01566890709488043,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.014566236657856666,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "c4f95000-fc56-4f85-a6be-18893b0c7b0a",
      "question_id": "076973f0-aa63-4d73-9330-ed394204e8d9",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "9/18/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-30",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 3777,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 49.0,
      "republican_pct": 45.0,
      "margin": 4.0,
      "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_oh_20260921_lv.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 34,
      "raw_weight": 0.594370812946183,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2519005726445951,
      "normalized_weight": 0.015794178697307096,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01468269250231387,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "ee4a1986-796f-4f9a-bc2c-eeabdc1eea57",
      "question_id": "217e39c2-fe21-43b0-b82d-3efc29d43434",
      "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
      "start_date": "9/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-29",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1200,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 43.8,
      "republican_pct": 42.5,
      "margin": 1.2999999999999972,
      "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-ohio-senate-race-narrows-to-brown-up-by-one/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 35,
      "raw_weight": 0.4454493590701697,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.1553906529870695,
      "normalized_weight": 0.009743001833631092,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.009057356049610615,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "79fe6351-f7cd-40a6-a841-dd4b064707a1",
      "question_id": "5108a9bc-eb1d-44fd-983b-c6b5f19986b5",
      "pollster": "Big Data Poll",
      "start_date": "9/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-27",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 680,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 46.3,
      "republican_pct": 42.6,
      "margin": 3.6999999999999957,
      "url": "https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/buckeye-state-poll-sherrod-brown-leads-jon-husted-for-us-senate-in-ohio/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 37,
      "raw_weight": 0.3139009631979163,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3139009631979163,
      "normalized_weight": 0.019681606333621354,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.018296549588705507,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "3a34730a-dbc1-4dd4-9a8f-32b4d6cfd12f",
      "question_id": "9e01bbfd-04a8-45e2-8137-83ac6989a363",
      "pollster": "Suffolk University",
      "start_date": "9/23/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-27",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 500,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 46.6,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": 2.6000000000000014,
      "url": "https://www.suffolk.edu/academics/research-at-suffolk/political-research-center/polls/other-states#collapse-September-29-2026-Ohio-Governor-and-US-Senate-with-USA-TODAY-Network-Ohio",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 37,
      "raw_weight": 0.26916785531656695,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.26916785531656695,
      "normalized_weight": 0.016876838197739517,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.015689161837263734,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "8736e40d-10b1-47e8-98dc-3e77af028d79",
      "question_id": "7eec8ca8-6f02-4e2f-8c78-3c84197683f1",
      "pollster": "Marist University",
      "start_date": "9/24/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-27",
      "population": "rv",
      "sample_size": 1298,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 51.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.0,
      "margin": 8.0,
      "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-ohio-september-2026/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 37,
      "raw_weight": 0.43368613528164573,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.34438933792306037,
      "normalized_weight": 0.021593228977206155,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02007364531455047,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "ddee0709-2b5a-400f-966a-9279cddd3a10",
      "question_id": "b4f222a2-84b0-4a6d-94ac-83a4c59cfd63",
      "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
      "start_date": "9/21/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-23",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 695,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 47.6,
      "republican_pct": 47.2,
      "margin": 0.3999999999999986,
      "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/polling/f/brown-and-husted-deadlocked-in-ohio-senate-race",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 41,
      "raw_weight": 0.2780939542814941,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2780939542814941,
      "normalized_weight": 0.017436505056142474,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.016209443172757788,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "ab5080b9-cb98-4b3f-953e-eb8d385c4eee",
      "question_id": "ac91045d-e931-497b-af6f-f3b4bc7ba13e",
      "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
      "start_date": "9/14/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-16",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1085,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 45.4,
      "republican_pct": 41.5,
      "margin": 3.8999999999999986,
      "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/oh-senate-0917/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 48,
      "raw_weight": 0.13789251310114828,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.13789251310114828,
      "normalized_weight": 0.008645867574160221,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.008037430590092345,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "314d0d9f-dfec-48d8-b989-2b20e36748f7",
      "question_id": "f6c2367f-cb72-48df-81ee-93281bece8bf",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "9/1/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-10",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1000,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 45.0,
      "margin": 3.0,
      "url": "https://drive.google.com/file/d/16DCSUQaBOGTTk0u3flp6q0uwC6AO8euZ/view",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 54,
      "raw_weight": 0.2171937096551029,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.09204896782486885,
      "normalized_weight": 0.005771474957223938,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.005365318052034733,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "5506608a-6ab8-4d78-a80e-01a18da64633",
      "question_id": "3930b893-745e-4f00-9b5b-0e3424f9b188",
      "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
      "start_date": "9/8/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-09",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1200,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 47.3,
      "republican_pct": 41.9,
      "margin": 5.399999999999999,
      "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/top-line-tabs-ohio/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 55,
      "raw_weight": 0.23019882600123304,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.08030260940066497,
      "normalized_weight": 0.005034977687500579,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.00468065041927042,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "dcf6267c-62b2-4941-9e1a-2facc483e35b",
      "question_id": "f4af9b0a-37ff-4cce-ba99-07b4452ee702",
      "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners",
      "start_date": "8/29/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-31",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 504,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 40.0,
      "margin": 10.0,
      "url": "https://concordpublicopinionpartners.org/polls/ohio-ge-2026",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 64,
      "raw_weight": 0.055422345154512276,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.055422345154512276,
      "normalized_weight": 0.003474983855750202,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.003230438276172252,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "0f9efd9e-18ce-4bdb-b809-80d16d258bd6",
      "question_id": "587a0ce5-3ec1-48ec-a4c5-fa0434f971ef",
      "pollster": "Abacus Data",
      "start_date": "8/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-28",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 306,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 46.0,
      "republican_pct": 41.0,
      "margin": 5.0,
      "url": "https://abacusdata.ca/the-trade-war-next-door-what-american-voters-think-about-tariffs-canada-and-the-battle-for-the-u-s-senate/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 67,
      "raw_weight": 0.07822688811795105,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.07822688811795105,
      "normalized_weight": 0.004904829857661215,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.00455966150291096,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OH",
      "poll_id": "5bdcb862-c70f-4062-8be0-2f6fa098ad51",
      "question_id": "fbbc0c10-6d03-4032-8e43-0e794c2993f3",
      "pollster": "Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research",
      "start_date": "8/6/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-10",
      "population": "rv",
      "sample_size": 1008,
      "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "a374bdfa-b9b3-43c0-b8ae-e5d2e12d4590",
      "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
      "opposition_pct": 53.0,
      "republican_pct": 45.0,
      "margin": 8.0,
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-economic-anxiety-candidate-concerns-define-ohio-senate-race",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 85,
      "raw_weight": 0.07837903217603406,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.07316881999611488,
      "normalized_weight": 0.004587688729553712,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.004264838596757991,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OH"
    },
    {
      "state": "OK",
      "poll_id": "3363b2d9-eeaf-4b08-952d-6a4d61607837",
      "question_id": "7677461d-f14d-45a4-9d73-34fc0bb5512f",
      "pollster": "Cole Hargrave",
      "start_date": "8/3/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-06",
      "population": "rv",
      "sample_size": 500,
      "opposition_name": "Jim Priest",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "8265bc33-f0b4-4821-b318-65ce7ebf5c65",
      "republican_name": "Kevin Hern",
      "opposition_pct": 27.0,
      "republican_pct": 48.0,
      "margin": -21.0,
      "url": "https://chs-inc.com/general-election-rep/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 89,
      "raw_weight": 0.048374399379969055,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.048374399379969055,
      "normalized_weight": 1.0,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.857249038294748,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "OK"
    },
    {
      "state": "RI",
      "poll_id": "15c62ccc-5850-4c8a-b4b9-a4be7a36102a",
      "question_id": "8c3ce7a9-efec-46e8-abf4-87a362979cd5",
      "pollster": "Emerson College",
      "start_date": "10/8/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-11",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 800,
      "opposition_name": "Jack Reed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be0e7611-cafb-4f43-9d4b-281b31770c52",
      "republican_name": "Raymond McKay",
      "opposition_pct": 59.13,
      "republican_pct": 25.44,
      "margin": 33.69,
      "url": "https://www.wpri.com/news/elections/5p-wpri-emerson-poll-story/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 23,
      "raw_weight": 0.5404678305987736,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5404678305987736,
      "normalized_weight": 0.39143845513888703,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.3554704641692451,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "RI"
    },
    {
      "state": "RI",
      "poll_id": "af05ce70-5668-4aa8-9677-13178bfb45bb",
      "question_id": "d10e6166-d130-442f-b105-2ef1ad15228a",
      "pollster": "Embold Research",
      "start_date": "10/5/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-08",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 815,
      "opposition_name": "Jack Reed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be0e7611-cafb-4f43-9d4b-281b31770c52",
      "republican_name": "Raymond McKay",
      "opposition_pct": 55.0,
      "republican_pct": 32.0,
      "margin": 23.0,
      "url": "https://salve.edu/news/news-listing/pell-center-survey-foulkes-leads-governors-race-11-points-lieutenant-governor-contest-deadlocked",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 26,
      "raw_weight": 0.49408238989432257,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.49408238989432257,
      "normalized_weight": 0.35784340244135476,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.32496235026422554,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "RI"
    },
    {
      "state": "RI",
      "poll_id": "f6bc7bf9-7761-4a66-8398-608a7a6dfbd1",
      "question_id": "a8592b74-6c72-4233-bd03-74e8a738708f",
      "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
      "start_date": "9/17/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-21",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 595,
      "opposition_name": "Jack Reed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be0e7611-cafb-4f43-9d4b-281b31770c52",
      "republican_name": "Raymond McKay",
      "opposition_pct": 53.0,
      "republican_pct": 33.0,
      "margin": 20.0,
      "url": "https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1009/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 43,
      "raw_weight": 0.2408729905555119,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2408729905555119,
      "normalized_weight": 0.1744543263625416,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.15842429264243485,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "RI"
    },
    {
      "state": "RI",
      "poll_id": "69b3875a-e038-4992-ac06-58eed14e4864",
      "question_id": "dc39f705-3678-4fc2-97fa-fa8522c6fff5",
      "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
      "start_date": "8/20/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-24",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 722,
      "opposition_name": "Jack Reed",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be0e7611-cafb-4f43-9d4b-281b31770c52",
      "republican_name": "Raymond McKay",
      "opposition_pct": 51.0,
      "republican_pct": 31.0,
      "margin": 20.0,
      "url": "https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/990/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 71,
      "raw_weight": 0.10529915667841867,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.10529915667841867,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0762638160572167,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06925618507143853,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "RI"
    },
    {
      "state": "SC",
      "poll_id": "efae558e-7c8c-48ab-b133-84962aaa054f",
      "question_id": "5c6fa034-87e0-491a-b307-dff416f657bb",
      "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
      "start_date": "10/31/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1091,
      "opposition_name": "Annie Andrews",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "3b708929-ecc4-4ed8-8369-cd9512a89493",
      "republican_name": "Darline Graham",
      "opposition_pct": 45.5,
      "republican_pct": 47.5,
      "margin": -2.0,
      "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/sc-senate-general-1102/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 0.6311567497660048,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.5193639967113708,
      "normalized_weight": 0.09955964130859571,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.09207112213736635,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "SC"
    },
    {
      "state": "SC",
      "poll_id": "799adc95-7605-40d1-b686-80b11548e471",
      "question_id": "910b183b-14f5-4e3f-93ec-553d53b4d8e9",
      "pollster": "Patinkin Research Strategies",
      "start_date": "10/27/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-29",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 500,
      "opposition_name": "Annie Andrews",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "3b708929-ecc4-4ed8-8369-cd9512a89493",
      "republican_name": "Darline Graham",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.0,
      "margin": 5.0,
      "url": "https://static1.squarespace.com/static/54512d3ce4b07de69d8320c7/t/6ae4f0f24aec54388059c463/1793388786248/PRS%2BProjectVOTE.SCSW+Poll+Release.103026.pdf",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 5,
      "raw_weight": 0.38699519503975244,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.38699519503975244,
      "normalized_weight": 0.07418516310386411,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06860522118340141,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "SC"
    },
    {
      "state": "SC",
      "poll_id": "f563358e-6428-4c39-b20d-84027b8795a4",
      "question_id": "4377654d-c6b1-49d1-9540-cf833100a098",
      "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
      "start_date": "10/19/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-26",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 707,
      "opposition_name": "Annie Andrews",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "3b708929-ecc4-4ed8-8369-cd9512a89493",
      "republican_name": "Darline Graham",
      "opposition_pct": 47.76,
      "republican_pct": 48.47,
      "margin": -0.7100000000000009,
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/28/polls/times-siena-sc-poll-toplines.html",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 8,
      "raw_weight": 0.8335967027338202,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8335967027338202,
      "normalized_weight": 0.15979657667015604,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.14777725124709454,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "SC"
    },
    {
      "state": "SC",
      "poll_id": "3e68a4bb-c6e6-4e11-b1f3-108da5969af6",
      "question_id": "f3d4f4b1-d2ea-4ac6-9f9e-b956c489e915",
      "pollster": "Targoz Market Research",
      "start_date": "10/16/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-25",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 895,
      "opposition_name": "Annie Andrews",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "3b708929-ecc4-4ed8-8369-cd9512a89493",
      "republican_name": "Darline Graham",
      "opposition_pct": 46.0,
      "republican_pct": 47.0,
      "margin": -1.0,
      "url": "https://www.foxcarolina.com/2026/10/26/new-poll-shows-neck-and-neck-senate-race-double-digit-lead-governor-sc-midterms/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 9,
      "raw_weight": 0.9074506941325894,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.9074506941325894,
      "normalized_weight": 0.173954040297647,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.16086984123304804,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "SC"
    },
    {
      "state": "SC",
      "poll_id": "379b9273-5e8d-461f-81ff-893c7e2cb8e6",
      "question_id": "b07ee80b-8279-4a96-ad53-2bfd1255ac26",
      "pollster": "East Carolina University Center for Survey Research",
      "start_date": "10/19/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-24",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 955,
      "opposition_name": "Annie Andrews",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "3b708929-ecc4-4ed8-8369-cd9512a89493",
      "republican_name": "Darline Graham",
      "opposition_pct": 47.3,
      "republican_pct": 51.2,
      "margin": -3.9000000000000057,
      "url": "https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/ecu-poll-finds-graham-leading-andrews-by-four-points",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 10,
      "raw_weight": 0.9069397640654493,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.9069397640654493,
      "normalized_weight": 0.17385609740106514,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.16077926524989714,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "SC"
    },
    {
      "state": "SC",
      "poll_id": "29e89f16-9a50-475b-b548-6cfb19442c96",
      "question_id": "2a996f3f-1f1b-4a29-97e3-f1545b612e9b",
      "pollster": "Impact Research",
      "start_date": "10/15/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-21",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 800,
      "opposition_name": "Annie Andrews",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "3b708929-ecc4-4ed8-8369-cd9512a89493",
      "republican_name": "Darline Graham",
      "opposition_pct": 45.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": 1.0,
      "url": "https://freshstartpac.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/SC-Senate-Track-Public-Memo.pdf",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 13,
      "raw_weight": 0.3759131087271665,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3759131087271665,
      "normalized_weight": 0.07206077915499923,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.06664062577655042,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "SC"
    },
    {
      "state": "SC",
      "poll_id": "040d2334-8d1a-41e0-9814-6b64eff8c4d1",
      "question_id": "4300ffdc-464d-4ed4-ab7c-94d6cb922344",
      "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
      "start_date": "10/16/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-18",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1095,
      "opposition_name": "Annie Andrews",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "3b708929-ecc4-4ed8-8369-cd9512a89493",
      "republican_name": "Darline Graham",
      "opposition_pct": 45.6,
      "republican_pct": 48.6,
      "margin": -3.0,
      "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/sc-senate-gen-1018/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 16,
      "raw_weight": 0.39833205017325357,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3277780451098935,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0628335133097593,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.05810740177669973,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "SC"
    },
    {
      "state": "SC",
      "poll_id": "c4cd7d22-a9be-4bb2-b532-b1f9f3bff5ae",
      "question_id": "6ea69d6a-177b-49b3-933d-8f762cc81a3f",
      "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
      "start_date": "9/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-29",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1200,
      "opposition_name": "Annie Andrews",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "3b708929-ecc4-4ed8-8369-cd9512a89493",
      "republican_name": "Darline Graham",
      "opposition_pct": 45.0,
      "republican_pct": 46.0,
      "margin": -1.0,
      "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-south-carolina-senate-graham-leads-by-one-point/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 35,
      "raw_weight": 0.4454493590701697,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4454493590701697,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0853905520809833,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.07896778098723997,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "SC"
    },
    {
      "state": "SC",
      "poll_id": "b3c26b29-cc2f-472a-b43e-e75efff555f4",
      "question_id": "6f86a5e2-f626-4adc-bcbb-f9cc23de4137",
      "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
      "start_date": "9/23/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-25",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1087,
      "opposition_name": "Annie Andrews",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "3b708929-ecc4-4ed8-8369-cd9512a89493",
      "republican_name": "Darline Graham",
      "opposition_pct": 42.3,
      "republican_pct": 43.4,
      "margin": -1.1000000000000014,
      "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/sc-sen-gen-0926/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 39,
      "raw_weight": 0.18576053147860883,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.15285795817873568,
      "normalized_weight": 0.029302153371822393,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.027098150480700585,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "SC"
    },
    {
      "state": "SC",
      "poll_id": "294639ed-4101-4a83-934e-ebd6036794d7",
      "question_id": "8cd0f698-49d6-411c-aafc-c417a1e211f0",
      "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
      "start_date": "9/8/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-09",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1200,
      "opposition_name": "Annie Andrews",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "3b708929-ecc4-4ed8-8369-cd9512a89493",
      "republican_name": "Darline Graham",
      "opposition_pct": 43.2,
      "republican_pct": 45.1,
      "margin": -1.8999999999999986,
      "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/top-line-tabs-sc/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 55,
      "raw_weight": 0.23019882600123304,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.23019882600123304,
      "normalized_weight": 0.044128034849283626,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.04080888232307814,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "SC"
    },
    {
      "state": "SC",
      "poll_id": "0af6e60b-c4a3-497e-96ee-1e29515f6fca",
      "question_id": "497aaf71-3596-495d-8ec5-3f04456503c6",
      "pollster": "Abacus Data",
      "start_date": "8/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-28",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 306,
      "opposition_name": "Annie Andrews",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "3b708929-ecc4-4ed8-8369-cd9512a89493",
      "republican_name": "Darline Graham",
      "opposition_pct": 38.0,
      "republican_pct": 51.0,
      "margin": -13.0,
      "url": "https://abacusdata.ca/the-trade-war-next-door-what-american-voters-think-about-tariffs-canada-and-the-battle-for-the-u-s-senate/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 67,
      "raw_weight": 0.07822688811795105,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.07822688811795105,
      "normalized_weight": 0.014995727410883775,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.013867802573801848,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "SC"
    },
    {
      "state": "SC",
      "poll_id": "6ee4c6c7-2c69-480a-959d-384e29ee003e",
      "question_id": "49be2463-c286-4806-8596-2c12ca24f91c",
      "pollster": "Impact Research",
      "start_date": "8/18/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-24",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 700,
      "opposition_name": "Annie Andrews",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "3b708929-ecc4-4ed8-8369-cd9512a89493",
      "republican_name": "Darline Graham",
      "opposition_pct": 41.0,
      "republican_pct": 41.0,
      "margin": 0.0,
      "url": "https://drannieandrews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/IMPACT-SC-SEN-POLL-MEMO-AUG-2026.pdf",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 71,
      "raw_weight": 0.05184123255353577,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.05184123255353577,
      "normalized_weight": 0.009937721040940449,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.009190241303616538,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "SC"
    },
    {
      "state": "SD",
      "poll_id": "61f15781-75a4-47c4-a04a-da825f9d1778",
      "question_id": "03525770-da88-4df8-8ca8-96f2779e06ed",
      "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners",
      "start_date": "10/22/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-26",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 448,
      "opposition_name": "Brian Bengs",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "IND",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "60bae334-3494-425a-928b-354da42b0e1f",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rounds",
      "opposition_pct": 43.0,
      "republican_pct": 41.0,
      "margin": 2.0,
      "url": "https://concordpublicopinionpartners.org/polls/south-dakota-ge-2026-oct26",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 8,
      "raw_weight": 0.33178388834262884,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.33178388834262884,
      "normalized_weight": 0.11340267847108551,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.11340267847108551,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "SD"
    },
    {
      "state": "SD",
      "poll_id": "5f328a35-fe31-463a-9366-ee4844b660b5",
      "question_id": "3657d50a-c9ca-4920-8cbd-6be1cc3f8687",
      "pollster": "Emerson College",
      "start_date": "10/19/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-21",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 803,
      "opposition_name": "Brian Bengs",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "IND",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "60bae334-3494-425a-928b-354da42b0e1f",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rounds",
      "opposition_pct": 46.0,
      "republican_pct": 54.0,
      "margin": -8.0,
      "url": "https://www.keloland.com/keloland-com-original/keloland-poll-rounds-leads-bengs-at-8-trump-approval-down/amp/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 13,
      "raw_weight": 0.7532345725146874,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7532345725146874,
      "normalized_weight": 0.2574531827536416,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.2574531827536416,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "SD"
    },
    {
      "state": "SD",
      "poll_id": "52e9ded5-bc58-4220-9446-16750d1dd419",
      "question_id": "b60f63de-e62c-461c-9b64-bff03d8057ae",
      "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
      "start_date": "10/17/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-19",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 657,
      "opposition_name": "Brian Bengs",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "IND",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "60bae334-3494-425a-928b-354da42b0e1f",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rounds",
      "opposition_pct": 37.3,
      "republican_pct": 59.4,
      "margin": -22.1,
      "url": "https://www.semafor.com/article/10/21/2026/poll-shows-big-lead-for-south-dakota-republican-rounds",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 15,
      "raw_weight": 0.6378016436567403,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6378016436567403,
      "normalized_weight": 0.21799857456984945,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.21799857456984945,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "SD"
    },
    {
      "state": "SD",
      "poll_id": "b6b76d24-695b-4c48-8834-3042ae36e0d4",
      "question_id": "853faef8-93c5-4ad8-b0d8-154ee82fe785",
      "pollster": "Public Opinion Strategies",
      "start_date": "10/12/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-16",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 500,
      "opposition_name": "Brian Bengs",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "IND",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "60bae334-3494-425a-928b-354da42b0e1f",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rounds",
      "opposition_pct": 37.0,
      "republican_pct": 54.0,
      "margin": -17.0,
      "url": "https://x.com/andrewjfhoward/status/2112507944633811183",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 18,
      "raw_weight": 0.2519728050600231,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2519728050600231,
      "normalized_weight": 0.08612350388205384,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.08612350388205384,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "SD"
    },
    {
      "state": "SD",
      "poll_id": "06cde9f9-1d19-466c-b7aa-42e4ec649862",
      "question_id": "3e7e4333-aa9d-4bbd-98ef-cadffb91157c",
      "pollster": "Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.",
      "start_date": "10/12/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-14",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 500,
      "opposition_name": "Brian Bengs",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "IND",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "60bae334-3494-425a-928b-354da42b0e1f",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rounds",
      "opposition_pct": 37.4,
      "republican_pct": 56.4,
      "margin": -19.0,
      "url": "https://www.sdnewswatch.org/south-dakota-poll-2026-governor-ahlers-rhoden/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 20,
      "raw_weight": 0.4717524268649823,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4717524268649823,
      "normalized_weight": 0.16124348005252503,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.16124348005252503,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "SD"
    },
    {
      "state": "SD",
      "poll_id": "63c68bf6-de25-4b0a-959c-db140e6a0080",
      "question_id": "7ee0eeb5-9c3a-4345-8a89-47bbe478a7f2",
      "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners",
      "start_date": "10/6/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-08",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 400,
      "opposition_name": "Brian Bengs",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "IND",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "60bae334-3494-425a-928b-354da42b0e1f",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rounds",
      "opposition_pct": 43.0,
      "republican_pct": 42.0,
      "margin": 1.0,
      "url": "https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28817212-sd-sen-gov-concord-public-opinion-partners-oct-2026/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 26,
      "raw_weight": 0.17306951261493517,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.17306951261493517,
      "normalized_weight": 0.059154609315901725,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.059154609315901725,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "SD"
    },
    {
      "state": "SD",
      "poll_id": "fd683a6e-0873-4947-8ed2-28011b747732",
      "question_id": "fe9c2a92-0833-4850-80b6-6ce7233967b4",
      "pollster": "Zenith Research",
      "start_date": "9/24/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-27",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 500,
      "opposition_name": "Brian Bengs",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "IND",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "60bae334-3494-425a-928b-354da42b0e1f",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rounds",
      "opposition_pct": 47.0,
      "republican_pct": 53.0,
      "margin": -6.0,
      "url": "https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Qu-DSLvU_Uv08q06PQL20XY6LD9JbMM3/view",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 37,
      "raw_weight": 0.13458392765828348,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.13458392765828348,
      "normalized_weight": 0.046000358702912976,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.046000358702912976,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "SD"
    },
    {
      "state": "SD",
      "poll_id": "bcc17e73-d95e-4457-ab14-83e4162a8d65",
      "question_id": "e7526230-79b8-4067-807a-820ba07f87c4",
      "pollster": "Public Policy Polling",
      "start_date": "9/8/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-09",
      "population": "rv",
      "sample_size": 629,
      "opposition_name": "Brian Bengs",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "IND",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "60bae334-3494-425a-928b-354da42b0e1f",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rounds",
      "opposition_pct": 42.0,
      "republican_pct": 45.0,
      "margin": -3.0,
      "url": "https://x.com/NenoNicolosio/status/2098189872330678723",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 55,
      "raw_weight": 0.0833312331160582,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.0833312331160582,
      "normalized_weight": 0.028482350613422632,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.028482350613422632,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "SD"
    },
    {
      "state": "SD",
      "poll_id": "cabb19b7-c3b2-4065-8255-bcce2adeb67d",
      "question_id": "270b4a36-c529-4b51-b3b6-a9672795680b",
      "pollster": "Lake Research Partners",
      "start_date": "8/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-30",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 500,
      "opposition_name": "Brian Bengs",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "IND",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "60bae334-3494-425a-928b-354da42b0e1f",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rounds",
      "opposition_pct": 51.0,
      "republican_pct": 41.0,
      "margin": 10.0,
      "url": "https://x.com/SoDakDems/status/2105413020264357970",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 65,
      "raw_weight": 0.0534096670856928,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.0534096670856928,
      "normalized_weight": 0.01825525444897964,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01825525444897964,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "SD"
    },
    {
      "state": "SD",
      "poll_id": "f0a5041f-3f24-4d32-971c-fc77204d0be6",
      "question_id": "8ec1390d-3a87-4699-887b-eea6005cda79",
      "pollster": "Impact Research",
      "start_date": "8/13/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-17",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 500,
      "opposition_name": "Brian Bengs",
      "opposition_party": "I",
      "opposition_source_party": "IND",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "60bae334-3494-425a-928b-354da42b0e1f",
      "republican_name": "Mike Rounds",
      "opposition_pct": 44.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": 0.0,
      "url": "https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28585312-sd-sen-impact-research-for-brian-bengs/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 78,
      "raw_weight": 0.03477506647471841,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.03477506647471841,
      "normalized_weight": 0.011886007189627689,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.011886007189627689,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "SD"
    },
    {
      "state": "TN",
      "poll_id": "002d090f-ed00-4351-ae62-3e25da1fcd33",
      "question_id": "1c964902-35f4-49bd-9eb6-858644c0eaf9",
      "pollster": "Targoz Market Research",
      "start_date": "10/24/25",
      "end_date": "2026-11-02",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 716,
      "opposition_name": "Marquita Bradshaw",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "9f23c76a-6bfa-4b49-9f44-fc7db39ae5b0",
      "republican_name": "Bill Hagerty",
      "opposition_pct": 37.0,
      "republican_pct": 57.0,
      "margin": -20.0,
      "url": "https://www.targoz.com/market-matters-blog/2026/11/2/tennessee-poll-blackburn-leads-green-by-19-points-hagerty-leads-bradshaw-by-20-points",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 1,
      "raw_weight": 1.056929754522331,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.9110928521320588,
      "normalized_weight": 0.9110928521320588,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.8069538353326038,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TN"
    },
    {
      "state": "TN",
      "poll_id": "83074200-303b-4eb1-ae96-fa16b4cc5da1",
      "question_id": "7e58356a-9faa-46a9-9cfe-f834d3aecec1",
      "pollster": "Targoz Market Research",
      "start_date": "8/15/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-26",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 607,
      "opposition_name": "Marquita Bradshaw",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "9f23c76a-6bfa-4b49-9f44-fc7db39ae5b0",
      "republican_name": "Bill Hagerty",
      "opposition_pct": 33.0,
      "republican_pct": 58.0,
      "margin": -25.0,
      "url": "https://tennsight.com/polls/august-2026/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 69,
      "raw_weight": 0.10313834616466007,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.08890714786794125,
      "normalized_weight": 0.08890714786794125,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.07874495315447734,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TN"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "b112cbf3-ab0d-490b-b374-6f83fd7f9545",
      "question_id": "1dad712d-090f-46bb-b637-ce5f5c19a8d7",
      "pollster": "Research Co.",
      "start_date": "10/31/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-02",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 450,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 49.0,
      "republican_pct": 46.0,
      "margin": 3.0,
      "url": "https://researchco.ca/2026/11/02/midterms-2026-two/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 1,
      "raw_weight": 0.8379070991704293,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8379070991704293,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03763215957464629,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03502254214595759,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "ad45957d-ad76-4dd4-8ade-9fe70e9df712",
      "question_id": "5eb68805-10ce-4d7f-a23c-e601de9d009b",
      "pollster": "Emerson College",
      "start_date": "10/31/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 500,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 49.8,
      "republican_pct": 48.4,
      "margin": 1.3999999999999986,
      "url": "https://pollvault.substack.com/p/new-poll-vault-emerson-senate-and",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 0.8545546733710848,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.43437050153613316,
      "normalized_weight": 0.01950848733052933,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.018155663333168277,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "ec104f8a-5101-41e8-a3a9-ad0d516a8693",
      "question_id": "5b24bc8a-4464-46cc-8474-c8a1c1c085c3",
      "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
      "start_date": "10/31/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1089,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 47.5,
      "republican_pct": 48.1,
      "margin": -0.6000000000000014,
      "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/tx-senate-gen-1101/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 0.6305779722487987,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.596080230295976,
      "normalized_weight": 0.02677120932380056,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.024914748912596006,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "e516bc0a-6266-48e0-b4e9-73abd442e3ba",
      "question_id": "8eace49a-a5bc-45fe-8b14-2354a1743fd9",
      "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
      "start_date": "10/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "a",
      "sample_size": 1678,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 51.3,
      "republican_pct": 45.4,
      "margin": 5.899999999999999,
      "url": "https://www.atlasintel.org/poll/usa-texas-2026-11-01",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 1.5654919172269441,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
      "normalized_weight": 0.04491209062663873,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.041797643414922356,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "58393008-d203-4bf4-8bfd-aa610f32ab24",
      "question_id": "548fe325-ea9d-49eb-ab96-02f86a3beecc",
      "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
      "start_date": "10/27/26",
      "end_date": "2026-11-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1215,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 50.2,
      "republican_pct": 43.1,
      "margin": 7.100000000000001,
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/11/01/polls/times-siena-poll-crosstabs.html",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 2,
      "raw_weight": 1.3321189009117311,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8016537942756623,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03600394785969735,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.03350723943535366,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "45558885-837e-4d56-958e-ddd52081bad8",
      "question_id": "a1f09c9b-5461-43b8-abb2-ac01816a26d6",
      "pollster": "Kreate Strategies",
      "start_date": "10/27/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-30",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 900,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 45.0,
      "margin": 3.0,
      "url": "https://kstrat.net/press/texas-2026-senate-governor-talarico-leads-paxton-october",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 4,
      "raw_weight": 1.073264050586395,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 1.0,
      "normalized_weight": 0.04491209062663873,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.041797643414922356,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "4a8b3e3c-bb46-4a52-a75b-3eef218075c0",
      "question_id": "21ebde3a-d813-4380-abb5-2f133a4ae568",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "10/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-29",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 2138,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 51.0,
      "republican_pct": 47.0,
      "margin": 4.0,
      "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_tx_20261026_lv.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 5,
      "raw_weight": 1.5479807801590098,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3305764177989345,
      "normalized_weight": 0.014846878035215335,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.013817315232542258,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "efb35ed0-feb9-4785-8f6c-67a2f28a3148",
      "question_id": "67ab4426-8d0b-433b-a476-d314d6c7f865",
      "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
      "start_date": "10/26/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-28",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1207,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 48.4,
      "republican_pct": 49.4,
      "margin": -1.0,
      "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/polling/f/texas-survey-paxton-up-one-abbott-ahead-by-five",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 6,
      "raw_weight": 1.1635081766319386,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6757043787569764,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03034729629554995,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02824285067718574,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "06629328-a105-4cea-9764-1768892a646d",
      "question_id": "f17dc189-dcec-4330-992c-cccc695f72a6",
      "pollster": "ActiVote",
      "start_date": "10/22/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-28",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 400,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 52.1,
      "republican_pct": 47.9,
      "margin": 4.200000000000003,
      "url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/tx-u-s-senate/2026-10-29/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 6,
      "raw_weight": 0.6698010133943653,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.4125989480318005,
      "normalized_weight": 0.01853068134646003,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01724566370320528,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "4dc32c45-083d-49e5-a155-7fbd9084ed08",
      "question_id": "4f856b3c-d0b3-4c08-ac01-81bd04919863",
      "pollster": "A2 Insights",
      "start_date": "10/23/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-27",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 631,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 50.2,
      "republican_pct": 47.2,
      "margin": 3.0,
      "url": "https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UACnmnM84Dd1hU0l6iqHNgXkyh5oCelO/view",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 7,
      "raw_weight": 0.8139462423299553,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8139462423299553,
      "normalized_weight": 0.036556027400735,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.034021034795823454,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "136e2129-b776-4f8f-af7b-672c60515804",
      "question_id": "553116ef-e1a9-42e7-9a0b-ac2cb6972b75",
      "pollster": "CNN/SSRS",
      "start_date": "10/20/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-27",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 923,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 49.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.0,
      "margin": 6.0,
      "url": "https://edition.cnn.com/2026/10/29/politics/cnn-polls-michigan-maine-texas-kansas-senate-races-midterms-vis",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 7,
      "raw_weight": 0.9844233206353894,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.9844233206353894,
      "normalized_weight": 0.044212509391353245,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.04114657492525178,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "f31e142f-d353-45f2-8409-f4e442b6383c",
      "question_id": "75b612a0-cf18-4fd4-84d2-09c61a12ca31",
      "pollster": "Data for Progress",
      "start_date": "10/23/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-26",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 712,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 49.0,
      "republican_pct": 45.0,
      "margin": 4.0,
      "url": "https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/30/democratic-senate-candidates-lead-in-maine-michigan-and-texas",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 8,
      "raw_weight": 0.8365391640637253,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.8365391640637253,
      "normalized_weight": 0.037570722749162636,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.034965365682152826,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "f9198a5f-26a6-4d51-91e6-de346701bca2",
      "question_id": "e9558cc2-a959-4ff4-911a-bd339357c493",
      "pollster": "YouGov Blue",
      "start_date": "10/21/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-26",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1000,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 51.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.0,
      "margin": 8.0,
      "url": "https://254labs.io/news/2026-10-tx",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 8,
      "raw_weight": 0.991393988658295,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.991393988658295,
      "normalized_weight": 0.044525576665326194,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.04143793242163699,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "fed5cc59-dd90-4943-88f8-a52dcb154bdc",
      "question_id": "db8ad677-bbad-43ba-9551-81de412aeb5e",
      "pollster": "Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center",
      "start_date": "10/21/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-25",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 2000,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 49.0,
      "republican_pct": 47.0,
      "margin": 2.0,
      "url": "https://static1.squarespace.com/static/67aa7aa3e284b002cd6a420e/t/6ae28aaadbf6636957aa51e7/1793231530759/TSUStatewideOct2026.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 9,
      "raw_weight": 1.3565209874736013,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7757262994000221,
      "normalized_weight": 0.034839489860120886,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.032423531249899426,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "7a0a36a6-3db5-45a1-87cf-de2fcf9e7d2c",
      "question_id": "0e850468-66e9-414b-9304-bbd2ec1ef627",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "10/13/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-21",
      "population": "rv",
      "sample_size": 1000,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 45.0,
      "margin": 5.0,
      "url": "https://www.univision.com/noticias/politica/poll-univision-texas-latinos",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 13,
      "raw_weight": 0.8405672647472138,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.17950592078451988,
      "normalized_weight": 0.00806198618229259,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.007502924467818662,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "dea6fb5d-8b3f-4262-b316-4c61961e267d",
      "question_id": "11462646-db1a-42e2-b1d8-81946024344a",
      "pollster": "ActiVote",
      "start_date": "10/17/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-21",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 400,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 51.0,
      "republican_pct": 49.0,
      "margin": 2.0,
      "url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/tx-u-s-senate/2026-10-21/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 13,
      "raw_weight": 0.5316214166357908,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.32748000207332634,
      "normalized_weight": 0.014707811531529072,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.013687892352178928,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "2afcb084-c194-4f98-8215-52a1ffedd3e6",
      "question_id": "042da3eb-c5fa-435f-94ff-d68bf8fe5311",
      "pollster": "Verasight",
      "start_date": "10/1/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-20",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 601,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 47.6,
      "republican_pct": 45.2,
      "margin": 2.3999999999999986,
      "url": "https://cdn.votehub.com/pdfs/VoteHub_Verasight_Oct_2026_Texas_Report_D8A925D0.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 14,
      "raw_weight": 0.6304852734973567,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6304852734973567,
      "normalized_weight": 0.02831641174207439,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.026352798640002315,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "affba7ed-1250-40bd-a1fb-cb33b6fe0846",
      "question_id": "3c3dab80-a5e3-44ac-a76d-021ed4295754",
      "pollster": "Emerson College",
      "start_date": "10/17/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-19",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1000,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 49.37,
      "republican_pct": 47.83,
      "margin": 1.5399999999999991,
      "url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll-toss-up/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 15,
      "raw_weight": 0.7868699302555633,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.39996631801273846,
      "normalized_weight": 0.017963323522191117,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01671764953827588,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "1c95f8ce-b455-4511-ac5b-6259c3f6f770",
      "question_id": "3614ff38-afab-41f9-b54f-179c6f7aec16",
      "pollster": "Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research",
      "start_date": "10/15/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-19",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1398,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 49.0,
      "republican_pct": 49.0,
      "margin": 0.0,
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-texas-senate-race-galloping-toward-photo-finish",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 15,
      "raw_weight": 0.9303717931140606,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7158599565359024,
      "normalized_weight": 0.032150767243922115,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.029921259198309465,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "6afd8792-2ce0-46a6-b2e8-019dd5813772",
      "question_id": "a22cf620-b793-4f9e-b87b-d3f3622fa7eb",
      "pollster": "Slingshot Strategies",
      "start_date": "10/15/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-18",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 969,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 51.0,
      "republican_pct": 47.0,
      "margin": 4.0,
      "url": "https://texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com/p/october-poll-in-texas-general-election",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 16,
      "raw_weight": 0.749428277936257,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6259691421433684,
      "normalized_weight": 0.028113582841422263,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.026164034992053362,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "393edd18-28ac-4247-941b-c4cb665a1e91",
      "question_id": "44059dd8-e6da-4290-ae0c-76177c446d1c",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "10/8/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-16",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1458,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 51.0,
      "republican_pct": 49.0,
      "margin": 2.0,
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-senate-talarico-paxton-poll/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 18,
      "raw_weight": 0.860552610204175,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.18377385743742702,
      "normalized_weight": 0.008253668140036708,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.007681314162154352,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "b6037ae7-e4a6-46a2-a8e9-83eb3cc01ae4",
      "question_id": "0a38926a-9a08-4300-a29f-0c4ba739ed1c",
      "pollster": "Cor Strategies",
      "start_date": "10/10/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-15",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1409,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 44.0,
      "republican_pct": 40.0,
      "margin": 4.0,
      "url": "https://www.dailysignal.com/2026/10/23/texas-poll-election-integrity-proof-citizenship-support/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 19,
      "raw_weight": 0.40925067409606014,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.40925067409606014,
      "normalized_weight": 0.018380303364015246,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.017105713743183724,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "cec80170-8597-4cef-90ad-2ed9e6f2a4ed",
      "question_id": "afc559a0-0dd9-43b9-b838-e2633e3f7eea",
      "pollster": "University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs",
      "start_date": "10/10/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-14",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 2000,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 46.0,
      "margin": 2.0,
      "url": "https://www.uh.edu/hobby/texas2026/index.php",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 20,
      "raw_weight": 0.9435048537299646,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.9435048537299646,
      "normalized_weight": 0.04237477549739369,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.039436279436453545,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "954b5426-3589-4d4f-bf0e-b2c2e5dd1e16",
      "question_id": "e4c3cf2b-df58-43ff-b472-6ea7d7489124",
      "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
      "start_date": "10/13/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-14",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1200,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 48.1,
      "republican_pct": 48.5,
      "margin": -0.3999999999999986,
      "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-senate-surveys-texas-paxton-49-talarico-48-kansas-marshall-48-hamilton-47-maine-jackson-49-collins-47/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 20,
      "raw_weight": 0.7308357171124036,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.7308357171124036,
      "normalized_weight": 0.03282335996013678,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.030547210698753314,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "7dd88340-2b3d-4bc1-afbc-69f540b9f7fb",
      "question_id": "9024d7c4-6709-4e03-9a84-a5afdbb4c03f",
      "pollster": "ActiVote",
      "start_date": "9/30/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-14",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 400,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 51.9,
      "republican_pct": 48.1,
      "margin": 3.799999999999997,
      "url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/tx-u-s-senate/2026-10-14/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 20,
      "raw_weight": 0.42194819800823935,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.2599210498948732,
      "normalized_weight": 0.011673597748649633,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.010864087359538152,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "0ca2b323-c88e-4b8b-9459-f3676311f436",
      "question_id": "f086250f-65ae-40aa-94c7-6bb1557a2562",
      "pollster": "New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group",
      "start_date": "10/9/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-13",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 934,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 49.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": 5.0,
      "url": "https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/survey-research/battleground-district-project/senate-battleground-district-project-october",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 21,
      "raw_weight": 0.6238322424070967,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6238322424070967,
      "normalized_weight": 0.02801761020680679,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.026074717618863232,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "739f9913-8719-4860-9462-53185dd10577",
      "question_id": "ca00a326-07ab-4b6d-a3bc-11101f190ae0",
      "pollster": "Marist University",
      "start_date": "10/8/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-11",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1196,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 47.0,
      "republican_pct": 45.0,
      "margin": 2.0,
      "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/2026-midterm-elections-in-texas-october-2026/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 23,
      "raw_weight": 0.6608310574486161,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.6608310574486161,
      "normalized_weight": 0.029679304341029753,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.02762118089674333,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "a891d4a9-58f2-4418-94e9-7b9760e82c7e",
      "question_id": "a3fa911e-37db-456e-85ca-f77ea6a43abc",
      "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
      "start_date": "10/9/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-11",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 854,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 46.7,
      "republican_pct": 47.2,
      "margin": -0.5,
      "url": "https://quantusinsights.org/f/texas-senate-paxton-and-talarico-in-a-near-tie",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 23,
      "raw_weight": 0.5584107767013584,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.3242956212430235,
      "normalized_weight": 0.01456479433108878,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.013554792737736618,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "15206ef2-02d5-4b65-9cd4-7e2e04d4d952",
      "question_id": "6b73f7e3-7dc8-43f0-894a-9f496d2c8401",
      "pollster": "ReconMR/Siena Research Institute",
      "start_date": "10/5/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-08",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 617,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": 4.0,
      "url": "https://reconmr.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/TXP004-October-Press-Release.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 26,
      "raw_weight": 0.42989575100723937,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.42989575100723937,
      "normalized_weight": 0.019307516929244053,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01796862930619084,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "28fbc2b6-3a76-4299-b11f-fc0bbc3edcdd",
      "question_id": "ff722faf-497f-47e6-994a-1d3b666bdff9",
      "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
      "start_date": "10/6/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-08",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1086,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 47.1,
      "republican_pct": 43.6,
      "margin": 3.5,
      "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/tx-senate-gen-1009/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 26,
      "raw_weight": 0.28517108474428793,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.26956990784489343,
      "normalized_weight": 0.012106948131344506,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.011267386883494336,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "5c84ead6-f0b6-4d89-b2ac-92a7face0242",
      "question_id": "986200cf-7a02-4e12-95ad-51be09affead",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "9/25/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-05",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 861,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 47.0,
      "margin": 3.0,
      "url": "https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/latest-ut-texas-politics-poll-finds-historic-levels-of-competition-in-texas-midterm-elections",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 29,
      "raw_weight": 0.45995766573779884,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.09822548149670336,
      "normalized_weight": 0.004411511726825168,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.004105593649858261,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "52783584-7c3f-4898-9411-240ec7350ef9",
      "question_id": "7382c84a-9f84-4c4e-8a56-46b0e8ea8ea4",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "9/28/26",
      "end_date": "2026-10-05",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 3623,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": 6.0,
      "url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_tx_20260921_lv.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 29,
      "raw_weight": 0.7010214122078596,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.14970544222404353,
      "normalized_weight": 0.006723584388467272,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0062573346913538325,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "54fd4696-1366-495e-9fa3-5d1726ee0027",
      "question_id": "97007306-9518-4dc8-be8a-5bba4675639e",
      "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
      "start_date": "9/21/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-30",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 615,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 50.8,
      "republican_pct": 45.09,
      "margin": 5.709999999999994,
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/03/polls/times-siena-texas-poll-crosstabs.html",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 34,
      "raw_weight": 0.3295945599661942,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.1983462057243377,
      "normalized_weight": 0.008908142766941385,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.008290403979568699,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "fe0bf257-4c98-497f-98cd-ce544f415fe6",
      "question_id": "ef9253cb-1c3c-466f-bd2d-71af6acd8b81",
      "pollster": "University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov",
      "start_date": "9/18/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-28",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 850,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 45.0,
      "republican_pct": 45.0,
      "margin": 0.0,
      "url": "https://www.uml.edu/news/press-releases/2026/10092026-texas-poll.aspx",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 36,
      "raw_weight": 0.36272911520490597,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.36272911520490597,
      "normalized_weight": 0.016290922895003217,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.015161222213544951,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "2cf199b9-e51d-4811-8e7a-140673f681e0",
      "question_id": "b79697a6-1d98-438a-bbc7-edae99563e1a",
      "pollster": "Guidant Polling and Strategy",
      "start_date": "9/20/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-28",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 800,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 47.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": 3.0,
      "url": "https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/documenttools/b31cf2744465b8b7/1a8b655b-full.pdf",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 36,
      "raw_weight": 0.1759494653501958,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.1759494653501958,
      "normalized_weight": 0.007902258333516625,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.00735427301175372,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "0f689fd7-56bb-475a-b53b-393375bac8de",
      "question_id": "71f88138-7b13-4a67-a324-c88ff0029416",
      "pollster": "Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research",
      "start_date": "9/24/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-28",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 881,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 51.0,
      "republican_pct": 49.0,
      "margin": 2.0,
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-its-lone-star-senate-showdown-between-talarico-paxton",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 36,
      "raw_weight": 0.36928435418072075,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.28414004346409755,
      "normalized_weight": 0.012761323382716617,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01187638421661289,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "d755f479-59b4-43e0-b087-a9f5546d1e0c",
      "question_id": "65a710cf-ab58-4890-a76d-cd4a12529d82",
      "pollster": "Pulse Decision Science",
      "start_date": "9/24/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-27",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 800,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 45.0,
      "republican_pct": 48.0,
      "margin": -3.0,
      "url": "https://www.elpasotimes.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/10/01/talarico-trails-paxton-in-conservative-texas-us-senate-race-poll/92022294007/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 37,
      "raw_weight": 0.17023669914060283,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.17023669914060283,
      "normalized_weight": 0.007645686059782586,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.007115492846812337,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "346e5096-282b-482c-a99b-757a119a62b0",
      "question_id": "81840c07-0234-4a6f-9dd5-df7948e2c92f",
      "pollster": "Big Data Poll",
      "start_date": "9/24/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-26",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 698,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 46.8,
      "republican_pct": 44.9,
      "margin": 1.8999999999999986,
      "url": "https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/lone-star-state-poll-talarico-paxton-in-close-race-us-senate-in-texas/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 38,
      "raw_weight": 0.30770258275224754,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.30770258275224754,
      "normalized_weight": 0.013819566282619745,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.012861242831729082,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "17be68ea-2c12-427d-b8f8-1d5f2a22b4aa",
      "question_id": "8390f112-5802-4bb5-879f-5500996a6bf5",
      "pollster": "Stratus Intelligence",
      "start_date": "9/22/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-24",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 865,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 48.0,
      "margin": 0.0,
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2026/09/28/trumps-joes-exit-the-front-row-01094720",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 40,
      "raw_weight": 0.1603289561197167,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.1603289561197167,
      "normalized_weight": 0.007200708607323101,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.006701372536978653,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "0b753876-a450-4658-aa67-645182cfbbf4",
      "question_id": "14fcda3f-0be4-4184-a05c-885b3670aa62",
      "pollster": "Slingshot Strategies",
      "start_date": "9/19/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-22",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1007,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 49.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": 5.0,
      "url": "https://texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com/p/new-poll-in-texas-general-election-662",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 42,
      "raw_weight": 0.3238762623801462,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.27052161239630257,
      "normalized_weight": 0.012149691172407176,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.011307165890970495,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "05e63b49-71e2-463d-8bcf-7a3336bbc033",
      "question_id": "8ee846fb-500a-41a9-82e5-972a1ab12b70",
      "pollster": "Marist University",
      "start_date": "9/17/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-20",
      "population": "rv",
      "sample_size": 1139,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": 6.0,
      "url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/2026-midterm-elections-in-texas-september-2026/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 44,
      "raw_weight": 0.32244579828628395,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.32244579828628395,
      "normalized_weight": 0.014481714914812456,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.01347747449741008,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "338180c3-6c81-43cc-838a-bb565adc0d9e",
      "question_id": "4ef75448-c417-4ae2-8e9f-42b861819cda",
      "pollster": "Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center",
      "start_date": "9/15/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-19",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1800,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 47.0,
      "republican_pct": 46.0,
      "margin": 1.0,
      "url": "https://static1.squarespace.com/static/67aa7aa3e284b002cd6a420e/t/6ab15cb39e4cc420b9ef07f5/1790008500236/TSUSept2026_TXStatewideRaces.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 45,
      "raw_weight": 0.39218985103063553,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.22427370059997792,
      "normalized_weight": 0.01007260076651785,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.009374112165022937,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "49057317-ed54-4c97-bf30-e3834fb30b8c",
      "question_id": "a40a3139-7065-441b-8686-c68e52e96068",
      "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
      "start_date": "9/15/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-17",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1079,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 46.4,
      "republican_pct": 45.2,
      "margin": 1.1999999999999957,
      "url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/tx-general-0918/",
      "partisan": true,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 47,
      "raw_weight": 0.14212526964863628,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.1343498618591306,
      "normalized_weight": 0.006033933171493667,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.005615507618832017,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "7ec5edfc-97ad-42b9-ac2f-275f6a91ea96",
      "question_id": "3ff35cd5-fd87-4fd7-ac0c-589c07cb92ce",
      "pollster": "Emerson College",
      "start_date": "9/12/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-14",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1000,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 47.35,
      "republican_pct": 46.35,
      "margin": 1.0,
      "url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll-talarico-and-paxton-in-dead-heat-abbott-maintains-edge/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 50,
      "raw_weight": 0.24784849716457374,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.12598149582829904,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0056580923579200755,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.005265729639509772,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "a85e71a9-9e02-4087-bc15-c2d23c303ec1",
      "question_id": "707c0d83-bf47-485c-bc68-e37544f41f92",
      "pollster": "ReconMR/Siena Research Institute",
      "start_date": "9/8/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-11",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 614,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 49.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.0,
      "margin": 6.0,
      "url": "https://sri.siena.edu/2026/09/17/hinojosa-now-leads-abbott-by-4-points-talarico-widens-lead-to-6-points/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 53,
      "raw_weight": 0.17590014212817442,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.17590014212817442,
      "normalized_weight": 0.007900043124499203,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0073522114173075965,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "97830f95-88e5-4d39-817a-3345558ed38b",
      "question_id": "1ed3fc4c-efc1-425b-b240-a94506e38642",
      "pollster": "Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.",
      "start_date": "9/8/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-10",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 625,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 46.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.0,
      "margin": 3.0,
      "url": "https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/28623723/tx926allvoterresults.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 54,
      "raw_weight": 0.1717067039928573,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.1717067039928573,
      "normalized_weight": 0.007711707050928638,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.007176935585445075,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "ecd22fdf-f847-4f56-bb4a-40e120ba4a81",
      "question_id": "93d73c56-f6fa-449a-80af-5e9887e9bc0d",
      "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
      "start_date": "9/8/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-09",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1200,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 47.1,
      "republican_pct": 45.6,
      "margin": 1.5,
      "url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-u-s-senate-surveys-texas-talarico-47-paxton-46-south-carolina-graham-45-andrews-43-ohio-brown-47-husted-42/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 55,
      "raw_weight": 0.23019882600123304,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.23019882600123304,
      "normalized_weight": 0.010338710535513218,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.009621768443733296,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "df1a17b8-a353-44d4-aa55-1ad16461c603",
      "question_id": "0057d4bd-38bf-4ad4-af48-4134fdda7806",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "8/27/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-04",
      "population": "rv",
      "sample_size": 1000,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 43.0,
      "margin": 5.0,
      "url": "https://www.univision.com/noticias/politica/poll-univision-texas-2026",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 60,
      "raw_weight": 0.1781716791325384,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.03804915164050391,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0017088669467450314,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0015903648725100904,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "14e0e85c-3aa1-40fb-8c39-241c3590230a",
      "question_id": "8f9d998d-e8ef-4540-a0cf-0e7ab07175df",
      "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research",
      "start_date": "8/30/26",
      "end_date": "2026-09-01",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 895,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 44.0,
      "margin": 4.0,
      "url": "https://www.aarp.org/press/releases/2026-09-10-new-aarp-texas-poll-highly-motivated-older-voters-could-shape-close-senate-governor-races/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 63,
      "raw_weight": 0.1526672580046772,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.1526672580046772,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0068566057272264995,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.006381131611213449,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "b7eb2254-ebd3-4fee-baf7-62027d626ee3",
      "question_id": "82518cbc-39e8-4476-87a6-a7ac9516dc4b",
      "pollster": "Overton Insights",
      "start_date": "8/24/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-26",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1167,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 50.0,
      "republican_pct": 50.0,
      "margin": 0.0,
      "url": "https://overtoninsights.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Overton_Insights_Texas_Public_Policy_Foundation_Toplines_and_Demographics-2.pdf",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 69,
      "raw_weight": 0.14300830053132876,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.14300830053132876,
      "normalized_weight": 0.006422801753824626,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.005977409950982532,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "5ae82615-d4be-4bb8-b5c8-741b8254ec11",
      "question_id": "19eafb34-41c3-47c6-b14d-9932ed38a499",
      "pollster": "Slingshot Strategies",
      "start_date": "8/21/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-24",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1000,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 48.0,
      "republican_pct": 42.0,
      "margin": 6.0,
      "url": "https://texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com/p/new-poll-in-texas-general-election",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 71,
      "raw_weight": 0.1239242485822869,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.10350924546032898,
      "normalized_weight": 0.004648816612809289,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0043264425318985025,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "e6c33fe9-c763-4a06-bc90-89287bbbe49c",
      "question_id": "b995bc3b-ac97-4248-8ccb-13de5561ee02",
      "pollster": "YouGov",
      "start_date": "8/5/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-13",
      "population": "rv",
      "sample_size": 1200,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 42.0,
      "republican_pct": 39.0,
      "margin": 3.0,
      "url": "https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/new-ut-texas-politics-project-poll-finds-talarico-leading-paxton-abbott-leading-hinojosa-continued-resistance-to-data-centers-2",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 82,
      "raw_weight": 0.0944201179401309,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.020163728617867693,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0009055952070566227,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0008427963386848991,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    },
    {
      "state": "TX",
      "poll_id": "1d65760e-e087-40ce-91fe-c1ddeade33d8",
      "question_id": "e6c4fc2e-2903-4c1c-a37f-105999e231e0",
      "pollster": "Emerson College",
      "start_date": "8/9/26",
      "end_date": "2026-08-10",
      "population": "lv",
      "sample_size": 1000,
      "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
      "opposition_party": "D",
      "opposition_source_party": "DEM",
      "opposition_candidate_id": "be9d6f32-d4c3-404a-9322-9b7d262562df",
      "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
      "opposition_pct": 46.25,
      "republican_pct": 47.25,
      "margin": -1.0,
      "url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll-paxton-and-talarico/",
      "partisan": false,
      "final_rcv": false,
      "age_days": 85,
      "raw_weight": 0.07806738469061408,
      "pollster_capped_weight": 0.03968168462282929,
      "normalized_weight": 0.0017821874159982057,
      "forecast_mean_weight": 0.0016586009039684265,
      "chamber": "Senate",
      "race": "TX"
    }
  ],
  "coverage": {
    "races": 35,
    "races_with_polls": 29,
    "polls": 418,
    "races_without_polls": [
      "DE",
      "NJ",
      "OR",
      "VA",
      "WV",
      "WY"
    ],
    "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02"
  },
  "engine": {
    "encoding": "little-endian-bitmask-v1",
    "bytes_per_sample": 5,
    "simulations": 30000,
    "seed": 20260925,
    "rng": "Python random.Random / gauss, matching scripts/model.py",
    "race_order": [
      "AL",
      "AK",
      "AR",
      "CO",
      "DE",
      "FL",
      "GA",
      "ID",
      "IL",
      "IA",
      "KS",
      "KY",
      "LA",
      "ME",
      "MA",
      "MI",
      "MN",
      "MS",
      "MT",
      "NE",
      "NH",
      "NJ",
      "NM",
      "NC",
      "OH",
      "OK",
      "OR",
      "RI",
      "SC",
      "SD",
      "TN",
      "TX",
      "VA",
      "WV",
      "WY"
    ],
    "opposition_parties": [
      "D",
      "D",
      "D",
      "D",
      "D",
      "D",
      "D",
      "I",
      "D",
      "D",
      "D",
      "D",
      "D",
      "D",
      "D",
      "D",
      "D",
      "D",
      "I",
      "I",
      "D",
      "D",
      "D",
      "D",
      "D",
      "D",
      "D",
      "D",
      "D",
      "I",
      "D",
      "D",
      "D",
      "D",
      "D"
    ],
    "fixed_seats": {
      "D": 34,
      "R": 31,
      "I": 0
    },
    "national_sigma": 3.0,
    "sample_revision": "705d26d595b56e340ec3",
    "samples": [
      {
        "shift_pp": -6.0,
        "url": "/data/lab-samples/705d26d595b56e340ec3/shift-m12.bin",
        "sha256": "036cd9e4afd9c230c722d256d3340de05eb6057c73d49893f9a0a5755cdf8d8f",
        "bytes": 150000
      },
      {
        "shift_pp": -5.5,
        "url": "/data/lab-samples/705d26d595b56e340ec3/shift-m11.bin",
        "sha256": "18b155119161980edbf266ba111c967d0eeda585864889d57fab5c47528e1590",
        "bytes": 150000
      },
      {
        "shift_pp": -5.0,
        "url": "/data/lab-samples/705d26d595b56e340ec3/shift-m10.bin",
        "sha256": "b7f2c5717a3fdef093b786e945c39df1cb7734d163eed91f8a2b74abb905db57",
        "bytes": 150000
      },
      {
        "shift_pp": -4.5,
        "url": "/data/lab-samples/705d26d595b56e340ec3/shift-m9.bin",
        "sha256": "bbce62aade40aad80d8cb105e04533f01164bac82f21d1245d3839224c248118",
        "bytes": 150000
      },
      {
        "shift_pp": -4.0,
        "url": "/data/lab-samples/705d26d595b56e340ec3/shift-m8.bin",
        "sha256": "0d1f0c011fc617f508cfda2290cd4a236f5e5dcb0d121fe40ee554056a39a51b",
        "bytes": 150000
      },
      {
        "shift_pp": -3.5,
        "url": "/data/lab-samples/705d26d595b56e340ec3/shift-m7.bin",
        "sha256": "331b593290664eeefa4799b1591d035851e9756facb1ae6e7b267edf84a99d24",
        "bytes": 150000
      },
      {
        "shift_pp": -3.0,
        "url": "/data/lab-samples/705d26d595b56e340ec3/shift-m6.bin",
        "sha256": "f09b5cddd2fe12a4f64aeeef3e9681f6272e1a022deb6cd506a935945457e93c",
        "bytes": 150000
      },
      {
        "shift_pp": -2.5,
        "url": "/data/lab-samples/705d26d595b56e340ec3/shift-m5.bin",
        "sha256": "1a8c19cb1d2a18b1a53d6ea3dc1909eddadebfb48440b259b9500dc996287f12",
        "bytes": 150000
      },
      {
        "shift_pp": -2.0,
        "url": "/data/lab-samples/705d26d595b56e340ec3/shift-m4.bin",
        "sha256": "74fb1832a84c234448ff03b052d70da9583557f6361c97e6b31d152f765cc9bf",
        "bytes": 150000
      },
      {
        "shift_pp": -1.5,
        "url": "/data/lab-samples/705d26d595b56e340ec3/shift-m3.bin",
        "sha256": "97918c4f76cea57539014ccff36e9610d3ff209a19eb64b6435117024a97d86a",
        "bytes": 150000
      },
      {
        "shift_pp": -1.0,
        "url": "/data/lab-samples/705d26d595b56e340ec3/shift-m2.bin",
        "sha256": "784a6fc38fdc9167d5566c03ee45175c9ab6cc17837437a73adc9d45d7c82d3f",
        "bytes": 150000
      },
      {
        "shift_pp": -0.5,
        "url": "/data/lab-samples/705d26d595b56e340ec3/shift-m1.bin",
        "sha256": "b84bae5348d16433efa92bfeccbe2e3fbabb483089e1d0867975f0527725a926",
        "bytes": 150000
      },
      {
        "shift_pp": 0.0,
        "url": "/data/lab-samples/705d26d595b56e340ec3/shift-zero.bin",
        "sha256": "108453af4bf5ad35b01088b15a39050132497fdcf4d03b1aa1fffeae8701c0c9",
        "bytes": 150000
      },
      {
        "shift_pp": 0.5,
        "url": "/data/lab-samples/705d26d595b56e340ec3/shift-p1.bin",
        "sha256": "373f440fe268f781212cc2c9ffa0bceb244aa4e03f8082e990513c10595f0e6b",
        "bytes": 150000
      },
      {
        "shift_pp": 1.0,
        "url": "/data/lab-samples/705d26d595b56e340ec3/shift-p2.bin",
        "sha256": "ae6e843b3d112f3c29253a3ff29655329389a1775dfbbb3ce285adcae70b59ac",
        "bytes": 150000
      },
      {
        "shift_pp": 1.5,
        "url": "/data/lab-samples/705d26d595b56e340ec3/shift-p3.bin",
        "sha256": "8f5debb537e580053f525870557eba382560672f95a899acf02b30604d631185",
        "bytes": 150000
      },
      {
        "shift_pp": 2.0,
        "url": "/data/lab-samples/705d26d595b56e340ec3/shift-p4.bin",
        "sha256": "1d467880868e47bd48eb8427392081f5390e07e11803ffebd454a18a0ea93ecd",
        "bytes": 150000
      },
      {
        "shift_pp": 2.5,
        "url": "/data/lab-samples/705d26d595b56e340ec3/shift-p5.bin",
        "sha256": "bb0c9f6b5025dee2c033bfbced84ef838593f35d4cc1e75dc1cc5e1fb5892a4c",
        "bytes": 150000
      },
      {
        "shift_pp": 3.0,
        "url": "/data/lab-samples/705d26d595b56e340ec3/shift-p6.bin",
        "sha256": "da088beb5d624a7be91e19edd9d3eff5bb861ef0b4dde4b40e4623681a1fca74",
        "bytes": 150000
      },
      {
        "shift_pp": 3.5,
        "url": "/data/lab-samples/705d26d595b56e340ec3/shift-p7.bin",
        "sha256": "2cdebedb9ae22b568286d191c5b98e7fb254500c8b9baf00c5b19e2adb573f79",
        "bytes": 150000
      },
      {
        "shift_pp": 4.0,
        "url": "/data/lab-samples/705d26d595b56e340ec3/shift-p8.bin",
        "sha256": "983cae35688a9144729a004e01ac0c7cc51f5c5ad556fe40342fcda1f6c0c739",
        "bytes": 150000
      },
      {
        "shift_pp": 4.5,
        "url": "/data/lab-samples/705d26d595b56e340ec3/shift-p9.bin",
        "sha256": "763c474f53f96ff437e3221ede52ff0c5c6d2cef8bfe7e0ce2731129b57a7f37",
        "bytes": 150000
      },
      {
        "shift_pp": 5.0,
        "url": "/data/lab-samples/705d26d595b56e340ec3/shift-p10.bin",
        "sha256": "b1b9eddf8744d212efc57e5dcedfee2448cdd80bbbc9b92ff0e2beb40963f6d3",
        "bytes": 150000
      },
      {
        "shift_pp": 5.5,
        "url": "/data/lab-samples/705d26d595b56e340ec3/shift-p11.bin",
        "sha256": "ee6ad168d2da23953c50da30644c588343be8eb564b5aae854deba0f74cfcfa8",
        "bytes": 150000
      },
      {
        "shift_pp": 6.0,
        "url": "/data/lab-samples/705d26d595b56e340ec3/shift-p12.bin",
        "sha256": "6875e3026c0cb8081057f7a36fb4ec0e7697aca26833585a7d5c0482bf930c93",
        "bytes": 150000
      }
    ]
  },
  "insights": {
    "schema_version": "1.0",
    "insights_version": "senate-insights-1.0.0",
    "generated_at": "2026-11-03T23:16:01.334455+00:00",
    "as_of": "2026-11-03",
    "model_version": "baseline-1.2.0",
    "source_hashes": {
      "polls": "5f5c49017e7e48b1c5720d36b429faf1317b3766ab4f516dfcecc82bd2f00010",
      "historical": "d4492e286046f73b111cf5706ee02be4c305897898317818afd06c0ac8a464e0",
      "presidential": "9936410a6dd4ecc8be7fe202c6dff5b5f8fee59d88f35ab542ed12879941dcb7"
    },
    "source_retrieved_at": "2026-11-03T23:16:01.334455+00:00",
    "forecast_sha256": "f94394593c920f6127fb2ccf4cde17083c2c312cd6e497f78b7e87e503f6b409",
    "sample_sha256": "108453af4bf5ad35b01088b15a39050132497fdcf4d03b1aa1fffeae8701c0c9",
    "methodology": {
      "pathways": "The six races with the highest baseline control leverage are selected once for this snapshot, with state name breaking ties. All 64 outcome patterns are counted in the original joint simulations. Outcomes in the other races still vary; a displayed pattern is not sufficient by itself to guarantee control.",
      "denominators": "probability=pattern count/all draws; joint_control_probability=pattern-and-control count/all draws; control_given_pattern=pattern-and-control count/pattern count; pattern_given_control=pattern-and-control count/all draws with that control outcome. Empty denominators are null, never fabricated zeros.",
      "dependence": "Joint frequencies retain the model's shared national error. Marginal race probabilities are not multiplied and no causal or independent-race interpretation is implied.",
      "finite_samples": "Frequencies describe this finite simulation sample. Zero sampled counts do not prove impossibility. Pattern counts, pattern-and-control cell counts and control-category denominators below 100 draws are separately flagged as small samples; exceeding this heuristic is not a calibration guarantee. This is not new validation or calibration.",
      "sensitivity": "For each selected-matchup race, remove all observations from one pollster at a time and recompute the existing sample-size, recency, partisan, pollster-cap, effective-poll-count and historical-prior blend. The newest remaining poll controls the existing age penalty. No different matchup is selected.",
      "ranges": "margin_range spans available leave-one-pollster-out projected means only, in opposition-minus-Republican percentage points; it is not an uncertainty interval or vote-share range. max_absolute_change_pp compares those means with the unchanged published mean.",
      "missing": "No-poll races have no omission range or concentration. When omitting a sole independent pollster leaves no polls, that recomputation is unavailable; no historical Democratic prior is substituted. A sole Democratic pollster's omission falls back to the existing historical prior, explicitly labeled.",
      "concentration": "HHI is the sum of squared pollster shares of the selected polling average; effective_pollsters=1/HHI is a weight-concentration measure. These are not pollster accuracy ratings, evidence independence claims or confidence measures."
    },
    "pathways": {
      "selection_rule": "Fixed for this snapshot: six highest baseline control-leverage races; ties by state name",
      "selection_limit": 6,
      "race_order": [
        "OH",
        "MI",
        "ME",
        "TX",
        "KS",
        "MN"
      ],
      "races": [
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "state_name": "Ohio",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "leverage": 0.15153333333333333
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "state_name": "Michigan",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "leverage": 0.15146666666666667
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "state_name": "Maine",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "leverage": 0.15026666666666666
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "state_name": "Texas",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "leverage": 0.14973333333333333
        },
        {
          "state": "KS",
          "state_name": "Kansas",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
          "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
          "leverage": 0.14936666666666668
        },
        {
          "state": "MN",
          "state_name": "Minnesota",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
          "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
          "leverage": 0.14706666666666668
        }
      ],
      "simulations": 30000,
      "control_counts": {
        "D": 18898,
        "R": 9955,
        "unresolved": 1147
      },
      "control_small_sample": {
        "D": false,
        "R": false,
        "unresolved": false
      },
      "small_sample_threshold": 100,
      "patterns": [
        {
          "pattern_id": "RRRRRR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 494,
          "probability": 0.016466666666666668,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 0,
            "R": 494,
            "unresolved": 0
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.016466666666666668,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.04962330487192366,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "ORRRRR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 82,
          "probability": 0.0027333333333333333,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 0,
            "R": 82,
            "unresolved": 0
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0027333333333333333,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.008237066800602712,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "reliable_sample": false,
          "small_sample": true,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": true,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "RORRRR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 251,
          "probability": 0.008366666666666666,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 0,
            "R": 251,
            "unresolved": 0
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.008366666666666666,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.025213460572576594,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "OORRRR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 98,
          "probability": 0.003266666666666667,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 1,
            "R": 95,
            "unresolved": 2
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 3.3333333333333335e-05,
            "R": 0.0031666666666666666,
            "unresolved": 6.666666666666667e-05
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.01020408163265306,
            "R": 0.9693877551020408,
            "unresolved": 0.02040816326530612
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 5.291565244999471e-05,
            "R": 0.009542943244600702,
            "unresolved": 0.0017436791630340018
          },
          "reliable_sample": false,
          "small_sample": true,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": true,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "RRORRR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 146,
          "probability": 0.004866666666666667,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 0,
            "R": 146,
            "unresolved": 0
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.004866666666666667,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.014665996986438976,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "ORORRR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 63,
          "probability": 0.0021,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 0,
            "R": 62,
            "unresolved": 1
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0020666666666666667,
            "unresolved": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.9841269841269841,
            "unresolved": 0.015873015873015872
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.00622802611752888,
            "unresolved": 0.0008718395815170009
          },
          "reliable_sample": false,
          "small_sample": true,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": true,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "ROORRR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 158,
          "probability": 0.005266666666666667,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 0,
            "R": 158,
            "unresolved": 0
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.005266666666666667,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.015871421396283274,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "OOORRR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 94,
          "probability": 0.0031333333333333335,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 9,
            "R": 79,
            "unresolved": 6
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0003,
            "R": 0.0026333333333333334,
            "unresolved": 0.0002
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.09574468085106383,
            "R": 0.8404255319148937,
            "unresolved": 0.06382978723404255
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0004762408720499524,
            "R": 0.007935710698141637,
            "unresolved": 0.0052310374891020054
          },
          "reliable_sample": false,
          "small_sample": true,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": true,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "RRRORR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 84,
          "probability": 0.0028,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 0,
            "R": 84,
            "unresolved": 0
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0028,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.008437970868910096,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "reliable_sample": false,
          "small_sample": true,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": true,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "ORRORR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 36,
          "probability": 0.0012,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 0,
            "R": 36,
            "unresolved": 0
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0012,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.003616273229532898,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "reliable_sample": false,
          "small_sample": true,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": true,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "RORORR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 91,
          "probability": 0.003033333333333333,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 1,
            "R": 89,
            "unresolved": 1
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 3.3333333333333335e-05,
            "R": 0.0029666666666666665,
            "unresolved": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.01098901098901099,
            "R": 0.978021978021978,
            "unresolved": 0.01098901098901099
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 5.291565244999471e-05,
            "R": 0.008940231039678554,
            "unresolved": 0.0008718395815170009
          },
          "reliable_sample": false,
          "small_sample": true,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": true,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "OORORR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 48,
          "probability": 0.0016,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 5,
            "R": 42,
            "unresolved": 1
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.00016666666666666666,
            "R": 0.0014,
            "unresolved": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.10416666666666667,
            "R": 0.875,
            "unresolved": 0.020833333333333332
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.00026457826224997354,
            "R": 0.004218985434455048,
            "unresolved": 0.0008718395815170009
          },
          "reliable_sample": false,
          "small_sample": true,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": true,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "RROORR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 64,
          "probability": 0.0021333333333333334,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 2,
            "R": 62,
            "unresolved": 0
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 6.666666666666667e-05,
            "R": 0.0020666666666666667,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.03125,
            "R": 0.96875,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.00010583130489998942,
            "R": 0.00622802611752888,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "reliable_sample": false,
          "small_sample": true,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": true,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "OROORR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 40,
          "probability": 0.0013333333333333333,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 2,
            "R": 35,
            "unresolved": 3
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 6.666666666666667e-05,
            "R": 0.0011666666666666668,
            "unresolved": 0.0001
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.05,
            "R": 0.875,
            "unresolved": 0.075
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.00010583130489998942,
            "R": 0.0035158211953792064,
            "unresolved": 0.0026155187445510027
          },
          "reliable_sample": false,
          "small_sample": true,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": true,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "ROOORR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 103,
          "probability": 0.0034333333333333334,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 6,
            "R": 93,
            "unresolved": 4
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0002,
            "R": 0.0031,
            "unresolved": 0.00013333333333333334
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.05825242718446602,
            "R": 0.9029126213592233,
            "unresolved": 0.038834951456310676
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.00031749391469996824,
            "R": 0.00934203917629332,
            "unresolved": 0.0034873583260680036
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": true,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "OOOORR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 119,
          "probability": 0.003966666666666667,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 44,
            "R": 57,
            "unresolved": 18
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0014666666666666667,
            "R": 0.0019,
            "unresolved": 0.0006
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.3697478991596639,
            "R": 0.4789915966386555,
            "unresolved": 0.15126050420168066
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.002328288707799767,
            "R": 0.005725765946760422,
            "unresolved": 0.015693112467306015
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": true,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "RRRROR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 109,
          "probability": 0.0036333333333333335,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 0,
            "R": 109,
            "unresolved": 0
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0036333333333333335,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.010949271722752386,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "ORRROR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 41,
          "probability": 0.0013666666666666666,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 0,
            "R": 40,
            "unresolved": 1
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0013333333333333333,
            "unresolved": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.975609756097561,
            "unresolved": 0.024390243902439025
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.004018081366147665,
            "unresolved": 0.0008718395815170009
          },
          "reliable_sample": false,
          "small_sample": true,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": true,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "RORROR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 79,
          "probability": 0.0026333333333333334,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 1,
            "R": 78,
            "unresolved": 0
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 3.3333333333333335e-05,
            "R": 0.0026,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.012658227848101266,
            "R": 0.9873417721518988,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 5.291565244999471e-05,
            "R": 0.007835258663987946,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "reliable_sample": false,
          "small_sample": true,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": true,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "OORROR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 58,
          "probability": 0.0019333333333333333,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 3,
            "R": 52,
            "unresolved": 3
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0001,
            "R": 0.0017333333333333333,
            "unresolved": 0.0001
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.05172413793103448,
            "R": 0.896551724137931,
            "unresolved": 0.05172413793103448
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.00015874695734998412,
            "R": 0.005223505775991964,
            "unresolved": 0.0026155187445510027
          },
          "reliable_sample": false,
          "small_sample": true,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": true,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "RROROR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 73,
          "probability": 0.0024333333333333334,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 0,
            "R": 73,
            "unresolved": 0
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0024333333333333334,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.007332998493219488,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "reliable_sample": false,
          "small_sample": true,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": true,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "OROROR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 53,
          "probability": 0.0017666666666666666,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 0,
            "R": 51,
            "unresolved": 2
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0017,
            "unresolved": 6.666666666666667e-05
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.9622641509433962,
            "unresolved": 0.03773584905660377
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.005123053741838272,
            "unresolved": 0.0017436791630340018
          },
          "reliable_sample": false,
          "small_sample": true,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": true,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "ROOROR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 88,
          "probability": 0.0029333333333333334,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 5,
            "R": 82,
            "unresolved": 1
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.00016666666666666666,
            "R": 0.0027333333333333333,
            "unresolved": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.056818181818181816,
            "R": 0.9318181818181818,
            "unresolved": 0.011363636363636364
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.00026457826224997354,
            "R": 0.008237066800602712,
            "unresolved": 0.0008718395815170009
          },
          "reliable_sample": false,
          "small_sample": true,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": true,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "OOOROR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 141,
          "probability": 0.0047,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 48,
            "R": 77,
            "unresolved": 16
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0016,
            "R": 0.0025666666666666667,
            "unresolved": 0.0005333333333333334
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.3404255319148936,
            "R": 0.5460992907801419,
            "unresolved": 0.11347517730496454
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.002539951317599746,
            "R": 0.0077348066298342545,
            "unresolved": 0.013949433304272014
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": true,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "RRROOR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 46,
          "probability": 0.0015333333333333334,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 0,
            "R": 45,
            "unresolved": 1
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0015,
            "unresolved": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.9782608695652174,
            "unresolved": 0.021739130434782608
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0045203415369161224,
            "unresolved": 0.0008718395815170009
          },
          "reliable_sample": false,
          "small_sample": true,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": true,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "ORROOR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 26,
          "probability": 0.0008666666666666666,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 2,
            "R": 22,
            "unresolved": 2
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 6.666666666666667e-05,
            "R": 0.0007333333333333333,
            "unresolved": 6.666666666666667e-05
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.07692307692307693,
            "R": 0.8461538461538461,
            "unresolved": 0.07692307692307693
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.00010583130489998942,
            "R": 0.0022099447513812156,
            "unresolved": 0.0017436791630340018
          },
          "reliable_sample": false,
          "small_sample": true,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": true,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "ROROOR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 55,
          "probability": 0.0018333333333333333,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 3,
            "R": 50,
            "unresolved": 2
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0001,
            "R": 0.0016666666666666668,
            "unresolved": 6.666666666666667e-05
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.05454545454545454,
            "R": 0.9090909090909091,
            "unresolved": 0.03636363636363636
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.00015874695734998412,
            "R": 0.005022601707684581,
            "unresolved": 0.0017436791630340018
          },
          "reliable_sample": false,
          "small_sample": true,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": true,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "OOROOR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 73,
          "probability": 0.0024333333333333334,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 29,
            "R": 38,
            "unresolved": 6
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0009666666666666667,
            "R": 0.0012666666666666666,
            "unresolved": 0.0002
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.3972602739726027,
            "R": 0.5205479452054794,
            "unresolved": 0.0821917808219178
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0015345539210498466,
            "R": 0.0038171772978402812,
            "unresolved": 0.0052310374891020054
          },
          "reliable_sample": false,
          "small_sample": true,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": true,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "RROOOR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 41,
          "probability": 0.0013666666666666666,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 0,
            "R": 38,
            "unresolved": 3
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0012666666666666666,
            "unresolved": 0.0001
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.926829268292683,
            "unresolved": 0.07317073170731707
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0038171772978402812,
            "unresolved": 0.0026155187445510027
          },
          "reliable_sample": false,
          "small_sample": true,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": true,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "OROOOR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 63,
          "probability": 0.0021,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 22,
            "R": 33,
            "unresolved": 8
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0007333333333333333,
            "R": 0.0011,
            "unresolved": 0.0002666666666666667
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.3492063492063492,
            "R": 0.5238095238095238,
            "unresolved": 0.12698412698412698
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0011641443538998836,
            "R": 0.0033149171270718232,
            "unresolved": 0.006974716652136007
          },
          "reliable_sample": false,
          "small_sample": true,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": true,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "ROOOOR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 103,
          "probability": 0.0034333333333333334,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 37,
            "R": 53,
            "unresolved": 13
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0012333333333333332,
            "R": 0.0017666666666666666,
            "unresolved": 0.0004333333333333333
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.3592233009708738,
            "R": 0.5145631067961165,
            "unresolved": 0.1262135922330097
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0019578791406498043,
            "R": 0.005323957810145655,
            "unresolved": 0.011333914559721011
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": true,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "OOOOOR",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "R"
          },
          "sample_count": 242,
          "probability": 0.008066666666666666,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 179,
            "R": 40,
            "unresolved": 23
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.005966666666666667,
            "R": 0.0013333333333333333,
            "unresolved": 0.0007666666666666667
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.7396694214876033,
            "R": 0.1652892561983471,
            "unresolved": 0.09504132231404959
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.009471901788549052,
            "R": 0.004018081366147665,
            "unresolved": 0.02005231037489102
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": false,
            "R": true,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "RRRRRO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 436,
          "probability": 0.014533333333333334,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 0,
            "R": 436,
            "unresolved": 0
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.014533333333333334,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.04379708689100954,
            "unresolved": 0.0
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "ORRRRO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 189,
          "probability": 0.0063,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 0,
            "R": 188,
            "unresolved": 1
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.006266666666666667,
            "unresolved": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.9947089947089947,
            "unresolved": 0.005291005291005291
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0,
            "R": 0.018884982420894023,
            "unresolved": 0.0008718395815170009
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "RORRRO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 434,
          "probability": 0.014466666666666666,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 1,
            "R": 428,
            "unresolved": 5
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 3.3333333333333335e-05,
            "R": 0.014266666666666667,
            "unresolved": 0.00016666666666666666
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.002304147465437788,
            "R": 0.9861751152073732,
            "unresolved": 0.01152073732718894
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 5.291565244999471e-05,
            "R": 0.04299347061778001,
            "unresolved": 0.004359197907585004
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "OORRRO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 289,
          "probability": 0.009633333333333334,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 29,
            "R": 241,
            "unresolved": 19
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0009666666666666667,
            "R": 0.008033333333333333,
            "unresolved": 0.0006333333333333333
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.10034602076124567,
            "R": 0.8339100346020761,
            "unresolved": 0.0657439446366782
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0015345539210498466,
            "R": 0.02420894023103968,
            "unresolved": 0.016564952048823016
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "RRORRO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 317,
          "probability": 0.010566666666666667,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 1,
            "R": 314,
            "unresolved": 2
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 3.3333333333333335e-05,
            "R": 0.010466666666666668,
            "unresolved": 6.666666666666667e-05
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.0031545741324921135,
            "R": 0.9905362776025236,
            "unresolved": 0.006309148264984227
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 5.291565244999471e-05,
            "R": 0.031541938724259165,
            "unresolved": 0.0017436791630340018
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "ORORRO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 218,
          "probability": 0.007266666666666667,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 18,
            "R": 188,
            "unresolved": 12
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0006,
            "R": 0.006266666666666667,
            "unresolved": 0.0004
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.08256880733944955,
            "R": 0.8623853211009175,
            "unresolved": 0.05504587155963303
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0009524817440999048,
            "R": 0.018884982420894023,
            "unresolved": 0.010462074978204011
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "ROORRO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 557,
          "probability": 0.018566666666666665,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 44,
            "R": 477,
            "unresolved": 36
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0014666666666666667,
            "R": 0.0159,
            "unresolved": 0.0012
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.07899461400359066,
            "R": 0.8563734290843806,
            "unresolved": 0.06463195691202872
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.002328288707799767,
            "R": 0.0479156202913109,
            "unresolved": 0.03138622493461203
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "OOORRO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 720,
          "probability": 0.024,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 277,
            "R": 369,
            "unresolved": 74
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.009233333333333333,
            "R": 0.0123,
            "unresolved": 0.0024666666666666665
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.38472222222222224,
            "R": 0.5125,
            "unresolved": 0.10277777777777777
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.014657635728648534,
            "R": 0.037066800602712204,
            "unresolved": 0.06451612903225806
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": false,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "RRRORO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 161,
          "probability": 0.005366666666666666,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 2,
            "R": 157,
            "unresolved": 2
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 6.666666666666667e-05,
            "R": 0.005233333333333334,
            "unresolved": 6.666666666666667e-05
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.012422360248447204,
            "R": 0.9751552795031055,
            "unresolved": 0.012422360248447204
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.00010583130489998942,
            "R": 0.015770969362129583,
            "unresolved": 0.0017436791630340018
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "ORRORO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 130,
          "probability": 0.004333333333333333,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 13,
            "R": 112,
            "unresolved": 5
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0004333333333333333,
            "R": 0.0037333333333333333,
            "unresolved": 0.00016666666666666666
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.1,
            "R": 0.8615384615384616,
            "unresolved": 0.038461538461538464
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0006879034818499312,
            "R": 0.011250627825213461,
            "unresolved": 0.004359197907585004
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "RORORO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 318,
          "probability": 0.0106,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 17,
            "R": 278,
            "unresolved": 23
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0005666666666666667,
            "R": 0.009266666666666666,
            "unresolved": 0.0007666666666666667
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.05345911949685535,
            "R": 0.8742138364779874,
            "unresolved": 0.07232704402515723
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0008995660916499101,
            "R": 0.02792566549472627,
            "unresolved": 0.02005231037489102
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "OORORO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 365,
          "probability": 0.012166666666666666,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 153,
            "R": 176,
            "unresolved": 36
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0051,
            "R": 0.005866666666666667,
            "unresolved": 0.0012
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.4191780821917808,
            "R": 0.4821917808219178,
            "unresolved": 0.09863013698630137
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.00809609482484919,
            "R": 0.017679558011049725,
            "unresolved": 0.03138622493461203
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": false,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "RROORO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 177,
          "probability": 0.0059,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 17,
            "R": 157,
            "unresolved": 3
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0005666666666666667,
            "R": 0.005233333333333334,
            "unresolved": 0.0001
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.096045197740113,
            "R": 0.8870056497175142,
            "unresolved": 0.01694915254237288
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0008995660916499101,
            "R": 0.015770969362129583,
            "unresolved": 0.0026155187445510027
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "OROORO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 234,
          "probability": 0.0078,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 84,
            "R": 133,
            "unresolved": 17
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0028,
            "R": 0.004433333333333333,
            "unresolved": 0.0005666666666666667
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.358974358974359,
            "R": 0.5683760683760684,
            "unresolved": 0.07264957264957266
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.004444914805799556,
            "R": 0.013360120542440984,
            "unresolved": 0.014821272885789015
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "ROOORO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 653,
          "probability": 0.021766666666666667,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 251,
            "R": 331,
            "unresolved": 71
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.008366666666666666,
            "R": 0.011033333333333332,
            "unresolved": 0.0023666666666666667
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.38437978560490044,
            "R": 0.5068912710566615,
            "unresolved": 0.10872894333843798
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.013281828764948671,
            "R": 0.033249623304871925,
            "unresolved": 0.06190061028770706
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": false,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "OOOORO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "R",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 1774,
          "probability": 0.059133333333333336,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 1423,
            "R": 255,
            "unresolved": 96
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.047433333333333334,
            "R": 0.0085,
            "unresolved": 0.0032
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.8021420518602029,
            "R": 0.14374295377677565,
            "unresolved": 0.05411499436302142
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.07529897343634247,
            "R": 0.025615268709191362,
            "unresolved": 0.08369659982563209
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": false,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "RRRROO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 184,
          "probability": 0.0061333333333333335,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 2,
            "R": 181,
            "unresolved": 1
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 6.666666666666667e-05,
            "R": 0.006033333333333333,
            "unresolved": 3.3333333333333335e-05
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.010869565217391304,
            "R": 0.9836956521739131,
            "unresolved": 0.005434782608695652
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.00010583130489998942,
            "R": 0.01818181818181818,
            "unresolved": 0.0008718395815170009
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "ORRROO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 133,
          "probability": 0.004433333333333333,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 12,
            "R": 115,
            "unresolved": 6
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0004,
            "R": 0.003833333333333333,
            "unresolved": 0.0002
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.09022556390977443,
            "R": 0.8646616541353384,
            "unresolved": 0.045112781954887216
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0006349878293999365,
            "R": 0.011551983927674536,
            "unresolved": 0.0052310374891020054
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "RORROO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 325,
          "probability": 0.010833333333333334,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 25,
            "R": 278,
            "unresolved": 22
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0008333333333333334,
            "R": 0.009266666666666666,
            "unresolved": 0.0007333333333333333
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.07692307692307693,
            "R": 0.8553846153846154,
            "unresolved": 0.06769230769230769
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0013228913112498678,
            "R": 0.02792566549472627,
            "unresolved": 0.01918047079337402
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "OORROO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 414,
          "probability": 0.0138,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 160,
            "R": 218,
            "unresolved": 36
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.005333333333333333,
            "R": 0.007266666666666667,
            "unresolved": 0.0012
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.3864734299516908,
            "R": 0.5265700483091788,
            "unresolved": 0.08695652173913043
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.008466504391999153,
            "R": 0.02189854344550477,
            "unresolved": 0.03138622493461203
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": false,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "RROROO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 223,
          "probability": 0.0074333333333333335,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 17,
            "R": 193,
            "unresolved": 13
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0005666666666666667,
            "R": 0.0064333333333333334,
            "unresolved": 0.0004333333333333333
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.07623318385650224,
            "R": 0.8654708520179372,
            "unresolved": 0.05829596412556054
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0008995660916499101,
            "R": 0.019387242591662482,
            "unresolved": 0.011333914559721011
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "OROROO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 267,
          "probability": 0.0089,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 89,
            "R": 156,
            "unresolved": 22
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0029666666666666665,
            "R": 0.0052,
            "unresolved": 0.0007333333333333333
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.3333333333333333,
            "R": 0.5842696629213483,
            "unresolved": 0.08239700374531835
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.004709493068049529,
            "R": 0.01567051732797589,
            "unresolved": 0.01918047079337402
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "ROOROO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 670,
          "probability": 0.022333333333333334,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 248,
            "R": 359,
            "unresolved": 63
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.008266666666666667,
            "R": 0.011966666666666667,
            "unresolved": 0.0021
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.3701492537313433,
            "R": 0.5358208955223881,
            "unresolved": 0.09402985074626866
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.013123081807598688,
            "R": 0.03606228026117529,
            "unresolved": 0.05492589363557106
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": false,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "OOOROO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "R",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 1852,
          "probability": 0.061733333333333335,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 1495,
            "R": 250,
            "unresolved": 107
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.049833333333333334,
            "R": 0.008333333333333333,
            "unresolved": 0.0035666666666666668
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.8072354211663066,
            "R": 0.13498920086393087,
            "unresolved": 0.05777537796976242
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.07910890041274209,
            "R": 0.025113008538422903,
            "unresolved": 0.09328683522231909
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": false,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": false
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "RRROOO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 129,
          "probability": 0.0043,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 6,
            "R": 120,
            "unresolved": 3
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0002,
            "R": 0.004,
            "unresolved": 0.0001
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.046511627906976744,
            "R": 0.9302325581395349,
            "unresolved": 0.023255813953488372
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.00031749391469996824,
            "R": 0.012054244098442994,
            "unresolved": 0.0026155187445510027
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "ORROOO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 136,
          "probability": 0.004533333333333334,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 42,
            "R": 82,
            "unresolved": 12
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0014,
            "R": 0.0027333333333333333,
            "unresolved": 0.0004
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.3088235294117647,
            "R": 0.6029411764705882,
            "unresolved": 0.08823529411764706
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.002222457402899778,
            "R": 0.008237066800602712,
            "unresolved": 0.010462074978204011
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": true,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "ROROOO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 372,
          "probability": 0.0124,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 146,
            "R": 188,
            "unresolved": 38
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.004866666666666667,
            "R": 0.006266666666666667,
            "unresolved": 0.0012666666666666666
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.3924731182795699,
            "R": 0.5053763440860215,
            "unresolved": 0.10215053763440861
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.007725685257699228,
            "R": 0.018884982420894023,
            "unresolved": 0.03312990409764603
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": false,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "OOROOO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "R",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 917,
          "probability": 0.030566666666666666,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 717,
            "R": 137,
            "unresolved": 63
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0239,
            "R": 0.004566666666666667,
            "unresolved": 0.0021
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.781897491821156,
            "R": 0.14940021810250817,
            "unresolved": 0.06870229007633588
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.037940522806646206,
            "R": 0.01376192867905575,
            "unresolved": 0.05492589363557106
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": false,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "RROOOO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 275,
          "probability": 0.009166666666666667,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 86,
            "R": 164,
            "unresolved": 25
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0028666666666666667,
            "R": 0.0054666666666666665,
            "unresolved": 0.0008333333333333334
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.31272727272727274,
            "R": 0.5963636363636363,
            "unresolved": 0.09090909090909091
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.004550746110699545,
            "R": 0.016474133601205424,
            "unresolved": 0.021795989537925022
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": true,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "OROOOO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "R",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 571,
          "probability": 0.019033333333333333,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 426,
            "R": 102,
            "unresolved": 43
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.0142,
            "R": 0.0034,
            "unresolved": 0.0014333333333333333
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.7460595446584939,
            "R": 0.1786339754816112,
            "unresolved": 0.07530647985989491
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.022542067943697747,
            "R": 0.010246107483676544,
            "unresolved": 0.037489102005231034
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": false,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "ROOOOO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "R",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 1775,
          "probability": 0.059166666666666666,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 1417,
            "R": 268,
            "unresolved": 90
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.047233333333333336,
            "R": 0.008933333333333333,
            "unresolved": 0.003
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.7983098591549296,
            "R": 0.15098591549295776,
            "unresolved": 0.05070422535211268
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.0749814795216425,
            "R": 0.02692114515318935,
            "unresolved": 0.07846556233653008
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": false,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        },
        {
          "pattern_id": "OOOOOO",
          "outcomes": {
            "OH": "O",
            "MI": "O",
            "ME": "O",
            "TX": "O",
            "KS": "O",
            "MN": "O"
          },
          "sample_count": 11523,
          "probability": 0.3841,
          "control_counts": {
            "D": 11281,
            "R": 158,
            "unresolved": 84
          },
          "joint_control_probability": {
            "D": 0.37603333333333333,
            "R": 0.005266666666666667,
            "unresolved": 0.0028
          },
          "control_given_pattern": {
            "D": 0.9789985246897509,
            "R": 0.013711707020741126,
            "unresolved": 0.0072897682895079405
          },
          "pattern_given_control": {
            "D": 0.5969414752883903,
            "R": 0.015871421396283274,
            "unresolved": 0.07323452484742807
          },
          "reliable_sample": true,
          "small_sample": false,
          "small_joint_sample": {
            "D": false,
            "R": false,
            "unresolved": true
          }
        }
      ]
    },
    "poll_sensitivity": {
      "scope": "Existing Senate selected-matchup evidence only; published probabilities and simulation results are unchanged",
      "races": [
        {
          "state": "AL",
          "state_name": "Alabama",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Everett Wess",
          "republican_name": "Barry Moore",
          "baseline_margin": -15.702822979348833,
          "baseline_poll_average": -14.491772663531592,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.9148773183901351,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.08512268160986491,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": -15.702822979348833,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 4,
            "unique_pollsters": 4,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-24",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-09-25",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 10,
            "partisan_poll_count": 1,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 3.353098015067708,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 4,
            "hhi": 0.2982316638244192,
            "effective_pollsters": 3.353098015067708,
            "max_pollster_share": 0.3856981106107865,
            "max_pollster": "Blueprint Polling",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "Blueprint Polling",
                "share": 0.3856981106107865,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "The Alabama Poll",
                "share": 0.2752026685134111,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Cygnal Political",
                "share": 0.25965505350184187,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "RMG Research",
                "share": 0.07944416737396061,
                "poll_count": 1
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "Blueprint Polling",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_pollsters": 3,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-17",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -19.33279142371179,
              "poll_average": -18.379364511946935,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9077881299687146,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.09221187003128539,
              "effective_polls": 2.5247224654156755,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -3.629968444362957
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Cygnal Political",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_pollsters": 3,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-24",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -15.68709131796885,
              "poll_average": -14.38367064173757,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9090756331367112,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.09092436686328875,
              "effective_polls": 2.3747171359700023,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.015731661379982498
            },
            {
              "pollster": "RMG Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_pollsters": 3,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-24",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -15.221394709127246,
              "poll_average": -13.930111237356888,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9126849107982258,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.08731508920177422,
              "effective_polls": 2.9029261601269023,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.48142827022158663
            },
            {
              "pollster": "The Alabama Poll",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_pollsters": 3,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-24",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -13.540807552329198,
              "poll_average": -12.020624588780192,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9089616200268539,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.09103837997314612,
              "effective_polls": 2.3610903867577124,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 2.162015427019634
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 4,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            -19.33279142371179,
            -13.540807552329198
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 3.629968444362957,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "AK",
          "state_name": "Alaska",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Mary Peltola",
          "republican_name": "Dan Sullivan",
          "baseline_margin": 0.652941432179472,
          "baseline_poll_average": 1.621176445044217,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.9231807572915512,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.07681924270844875,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": 0.652941432179472,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 13,
            "unique_pollsters": 7,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-05",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 2,
            "partisan_poll_count": 0,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 9,
            "effective_polls": 5.403537558954934,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 7,
            "hhi": 0.18506394914249547,
            "effective_pollsters": 5.403537558954934,
            "max_pollster_share": 0.22752641829919668,
            "max_pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
                "share": 0.22752641829919668,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Alaska Survey Research",
                "share": 0.22752641829919662,
                "poll_count": 5
              },
              {
                "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
                "share": 0.22752641829919662,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Data for Progress",
                "share": 0.13282864872845893,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
                "share": 0.08325472873917127,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "co/efficient",
                "share": 0.055653924547679284,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research",
                "share": 0.04568344308710058,
                "poll_count": 1
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "Alaska Survey Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 5,
              "remaining_poll_count": 8,
              "remaining_pollsters": 6,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 0.5462943960863476,
              "poll_average": 1.530736284755937,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9213304210482894,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07866957895171056,
              "effective_polls": 4.476630021683677,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.10664703609312443
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Data for Progress",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 12,
              "remaining_pollsters": 6,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 0.5766086039629311,
              "poll_average": 1.5631502881174402,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.921366304914456,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07863369508554396,
              "effective_polls": 4.49160142259731,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.07633282821654086
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 12,
              "remaining_pollsters": 6,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 0.4499303160875493,
              "poll_average": 1.4115607413112938,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9224144522372199,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07758554776278015,
              "effective_polls": 4.9772388295448975,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.20301111609192268
            },
            {
              "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 11,
              "remaining_pollsters": 6,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-30",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 0.8379038076702846,
              "poll_average": 1.8573118516712044,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9206081122044044,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07939188779559558,
              "effective_polls": 4.476630021683675,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.18496237549081262
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 12,
              "remaining_pollsters": 6,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 0.797407334962954,
              "poll_average": 1.795649146247531,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9218813963462008,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07811860365379919,
              "effective_polls": 4.717956711753686,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.14446590278348204
            },
            {
              "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 11,
              "remaining_pollsters": 6,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 0.2964730833828722,
              "poll_average": 1.2595834963575807,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9213304210482894,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07866957895171056,
              "effective_polls": 4.476630021683675,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.3564683487965998
            },
            {
              "pollster": "co/efficient",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 12,
              "remaining_pollsters": 6,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 0.8925487881759901,
              "poll_average": 1.8935200401301788,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9222631872352133,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07773681276478672,
              "effective_polls": 4.900842023143687,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.23960735599651817
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 7,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            0.2964730833828722,
            0.8925487881759901
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 0.3564683487965998,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "AR",
          "state_name": "Arkansas",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Hallie Shoffner",
          "republican_name": "Tom Cotton",
          "baseline_margin": -12.542379798972433,
          "baseline_poll_average": -10.947417903755559,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.9096688598359152,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.09033114016408483,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": -12.542379798972433,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 5,
            "unique_pollsters": 3,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-28",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-12",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 6,
            "partisan_poll_count": 2,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 2.2806723842551593,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 3,
            "hhi": 0.43846718489845177,
            "effective_pollsters": 2.2806723842551597,
            "max_pollster_share": 0.49563190249281136,
            "max_pollster": "Hendrix College",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "Hendrix College",
                "share": 0.49563190249281136,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "GrayHouse",
                "share": 0.4333229640069126,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "J.L. Partners",
                "share": 0.071045133500276,
                "poll_count": 1
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "GrayHouse",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_pollsters": 2,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-13",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -10.564664898485134,
              "poll_average": -8.307601380288567,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.8887962533905684,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.11120374660943155,
              "effective_polls": 1.280913125537818,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 1.9777149004872996
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Hendrix College",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_pollsters": 2,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-28",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -16.094233746995258,
              "poll_average": -14.625058860430473,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.8949027356477367,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.1050972643522633,
              "effective_polls": 1.3193246987188443,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -3.551853948022824
            },
            {
              "pollster": "J.L. Partners",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 4,
              "remaining_pollsters": 2,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-28",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -12.244759147335458,
              "poll_average": -10.561003684406726,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9066822394803997,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.09331776051960028,
              "effective_polls": 1.9910423934278179,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.2976206516369757
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 3,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            -16.094233746995258,
            -10.564664898485134
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 3.551853948022824,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "CO",
          "state_name": "Colorado",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "John Hickenlooper",
          "republican_name": "Mark Baisley",
          "baseline_margin": 18.994009949489893,
          "baseline_poll_average": 19.60177415263622,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.9122333839188254,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.08776661608117464,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": 18.994009949489893,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 3,
            "unique_pollsters": 3,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-09-30",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 1,
            "partisan_poll_count": 1,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 2.37229654524262,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 3,
            "hhi": 0.4215324606046365,
            "effective_pollsters": 2.37229654524262,
            "max_pollster_share": 0.4969909723474731,
            "max_pollster": "Research Co.",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "Research Co.",
                "share": 0.4969909723474731,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "YouGov",
                "share": 0.40646159346410937,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Lake Research Partners",
                "share": 0.09654743418841749,
                "poll_count": 1
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "Lake Research Partners",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_pollsters": 2,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 19.51055604306989,
              "poll_average": 20.200407597054177,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9083060000265075,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.09169399997349248,
              "effective_polls": 1.9801180284461029,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.516546093579997
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Research Co.",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_pollsters": 2,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-20",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 16.755188335382307,
              "poll_average": 17.232240942958892,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.8952739570550843,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.10472604294491572,
              "effective_polls": 1.449690903215195,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -2.238821614107586
            },
            {
              "pollster": "YouGov",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_pollsters": 2,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 19.880469164254198,
              "poll_average": 20.69868661403862,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.8979993551640887,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.10200064483591131,
              "effective_polls": 1.3743986799148291,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.8864592147643044
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 3,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            16.755188335382307,
            19.880469164254198
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 2.238821614107586,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "DE",
          "state_name": "Delaware",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Democratic candidate",
          "republican_name": "Republican candidate",
          "baseline_margin": 15.946150502276632,
          "baseline_poll_average": null,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.0,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 1.0,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": 15.946150502276632,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 0,
            "unique_pollsters": 0,
            "latest_poll_date": null,
            "oldest_poll_date": null,
            "latest_poll_age_days": null,
            "partisan_poll_count": 0,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 0,
            "has_polls": false,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": false,
            "pollster_count": 0,
            "hhi": null,
            "effective_pollsters": null,
            "max_pollster_share": null,
            "max_pollster": null,
            "pollsters": [],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [],
          "available_omissions": 0,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": null,
          "max_absolute_change_pp": null,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "FL",
          "state_name": "Florida",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Angie Nixon",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Moody",
          "baseline_margin": -6.438454610756657,
          "baseline_poll_average": -6.0948070434879975,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.9295216344874159,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.07047836551258413,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": -6.438454610756657,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 26,
            "unique_pollsters": 18,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-09-09",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 1,
            "partisan_poll_count": 3,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 16.0234026793061,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 18,
            "hhi": 0.06240871680092519,
            "effective_pollsters": 16.023402679306095,
            "max_pollster_share": 0.07341150402135366,
            "max_pollster": "Big Data Poll",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "Big Data Poll",
                "share": 0.07341150402135366,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
                "share": 0.07341150402135366,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "St. Pete Polls",
                "share": 0.07341150402135366,
                "poll_count": 3
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research",
                "share": 0.07341150402135366,
                "poll_count": 3
              },
              {
                "pollster": "ActiVote",
                "share": 0.07341150402135364,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Targoz Market Research",
                "share": 0.07341150402135364,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "University of North Florida",
                "share": 0.07006052824231246,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
                "share": 0.06349227872723334,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Research Co.",
                "share": 0.06151202038027074,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "MDW Communications",
                "share": 0.06069727776431576,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "co/efficient",
                "share": 0.06012025449361464,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "The Political Matrix/The Listener Group",
                "share": 0.05497496082754021,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "YouGov",
                "share": 0.0514630362213523,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Echelon Insights",
                "share": 0.047305292528593085,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Workbench Strategy",
                "share": 0.02852241890711447,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.",
                "share": 0.025210494781330056,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Change Research",
                "share": 0.022521448028081613,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
                "share": 0.013650964970119457,
                "poll_count": 1
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "ActiVote",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 24,
              "remaining_pollsters": 17,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -6.440469033675009,
              "poll_average": -6.095944463393415,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9293252842797979,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07067471572020212,
              "effective_polls": 15.057422891305157,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.0020144229183518547
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Big Data Poll",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 25,
              "remaining_pollsters": 17,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -6.380126985025152,
              "poll_average": -6.031013432600874,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9293252842797979,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07067471572020212,
              "effective_polls": 15.057422891305157,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.05832762573150507
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Change Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 24,
              "remaining_pollsters": 17,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -6.5558390510265125,
              "poll_average": -6.220495763478885,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9294049970767386,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07059500292326137,
              "effective_polls": 15.435236647852479,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.11738444026985562
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Echelon Insights",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 25,
              "remaining_pollsters": 17,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -6.35146837960417,
              "poll_average": -6.000206213416816,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9293310538236642,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07066894617633579,
              "effective_polls": 15.084148848565132,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.08698623115248694
            },
            {
              "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 24,
              "remaining_pollsters": 17,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -6.4401068904926015,
              "poll_average": -6.0955547794059735,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9293252842797979,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07067471572020212,
              "effective_polls": 15.057422891305157,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.0016522797359446173
            },
            {
              "pollster": "MDW Communications",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 25,
              "remaining_pollsters": 17,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -6.493182128277901,
              "poll_average": -6.152629032478708,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9293180840833071,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07068191591669293,
              "effective_polls": 15.02420188370023,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.05472751752124427
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 25,
              "remaining_pollsters": 17,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -6.345209618622604,
              "poll_average": -5.993808985832311,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9293940683446208,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0706059316553792,
              "effective_polls": 15.382324100942686,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.09324499213405257
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 25,
              "remaining_pollsters": 17,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -6.422035537375567,
              "poll_average": -6.076743312804616,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9294457138550385,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07055428614496151,
              "effective_polls": 15.635605825665458,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.01641907338108961
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Research Co.",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 25,
              "remaining_pollsters": 17,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-30",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -6.389749631971874,
              "poll_average": -6.035477303738314,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9282160703638368,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0717839296361632,
              "effective_polls": 15.023622446494162,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.04870497878478286
            },
            {
              "pollster": "St. Pete Polls",
              "omitted_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_poll_count": 23,
              "remaining_pollsters": 17,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -6.664612515781148,
              "poll_average": -6.337133943436287,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9293252842797979,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07067471572020212,
              "effective_polls": 15.057422891305157,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.2261579050244915
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_poll_count": 23,
              "remaining_pollsters": 17,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -6.376546249782868,
              "poll_average": -6.027160384262629,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9293252842797979,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07067471572020212,
              "effective_polls": 15.057422891305157,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.06190836097378849
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Targoz Market Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 24,
              "remaining_pollsters": 17,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -6.204446314916308,
              "poll_average": -5.84197233678587,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9293252842797979,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07067471572020212,
              "effective_polls": 15.057422891305157,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.23400829584034888
            },
            {
              "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 25,
              "remaining_pollsters": 17,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -6.443530770605257,
              "poll_average": -6.099200757255819,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9293179804828514,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07068201951714859,
              "effective_polls": 15.023724947258248,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.005076159848599993
            },
            {
              "pollster": "The Political Matrix/The Listener Group",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 25,
              "remaining_pollsters": 17,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -6.444557580187564,
              "poll_average": -6.100322255557395,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9293211463230366,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07067885367696336,
              "effective_polls": 15.038312891814794,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.006102969430907379
            },
            {
              "pollster": "University of North Florida",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 25,
              "remaining_pollsters": 17,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -6.5860964428623205,
              "poll_average": -6.252627302214178,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9293214510796504,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07067854892034964,
              "effective_polls": 15.039718676224728,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.14764183210566362
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Workbench Strategy",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 25,
              "remaining_pollsters": 17,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -6.550870590378531,
              "poll_average": -6.215029891766985,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9293815415034588,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07061845849654125,
              "effective_polls": 15.322117112807799,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.11241597962187377
            },
            {
              "pollster": "YouGov",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 25,
              "remaining_pollsters": 17,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -6.494614917176775,
              "poll_average": -6.1542059880583455,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9293248741236114,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07067512587638858,
              "effective_polls": 15.055526538739,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.056160306420117934
            },
            {
              "pollster": "co/efficient",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 25,
              "remaining_pollsters": 17,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -6.326192863091757,
              "poll_average": -5.9729396599715745,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9293182205029435,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07068177949705645,
              "effective_polls": 15.02482995299061,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.11226174766489994
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 18,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            -6.664612515781148,
            -6.204446314916308
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 0.23400829584034888,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "GA",
          "state_name": "Georgia",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Jon Ossoff",
          "republican_name": "Mike Collins",
          "baseline_margin": 8.273249757184107,
          "baseline_poll_average": 8.928289058488005,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.926413965076017,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.07358603492398297,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": 8.273249757184107,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 13,
            "unique_pollsters": 9,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-17",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 1,
            "partisan_poll_count": 2,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 7.938065110718219,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 9,
            "hhi": 0.12597528315178083,
            "effective_pollsters": 7.9380651107182185,
            "max_pollster_share": 0.17771222298317807,
            "max_pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
                "share": 0.17771222298317807,
                "poll_count": 3
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
                "share": 0.15153079344869944,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Research Co.",
                "share": 0.14890633324696323,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "University of Georgia",
                "share": 0.12254093846274533,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Echelon Insights",
                "share": 0.1137342195266,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "ActiVote",
                "share": 0.09140816826026481,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
                "share": 0.07427312519912582,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "YouGov",
                "share": 0.07108167185913751,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Big Data Poll",
                "share": 0.048812527013285804,
                "poll_count": 1
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "ActiVote",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 12,
              "remaining_pollsters": 8,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 8.352541457636045,
              "poll_average": 9.021678850788868,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9256106463836908,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07438935361630916,
              "effective_polls": 7.0187069409634715,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.07929170045193779
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Big Data Poll",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 12,
              "remaining_pollsters": 8,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 8.17970902245913,
              "poll_average": 8.832237603345582,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9258964181988705,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07410358180112953,
              "effective_polls": 7.320482453915916,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.09354073472497682
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Echelon Insights",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 12,
              "remaining_pollsters": 8,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 7.544312813874454,
              "poll_average": 8.149108229961465,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9255407187145712,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07445928128542878,
              "effective_polls": 6.948587674011538,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.7289369433096535
            },
            {
              "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
              "omitted_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_poll_count": 10,
              "remaining_pollsters": 8,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 8.664004273772633,
              "poll_average": 9.356764301611397,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9257504249230278,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07424957507697216,
              "effective_polls": 7.163164002269267,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.390754516588526
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 11,
              "remaining_pollsters": 8,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 8.666902311374619,
              "poll_average": 9.361607403304292,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9255805838723707,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07441941612762926,
              "effective_polls": 6.9883906894562475,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.3936525541905116
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Research Co.",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 12,
              "remaining_pollsters": 8,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 8.092192132701946,
              "poll_average": 8.74078378987283,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9255704973089952,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07442950269100479,
              "effective_polls": 6.978277144522875,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.18105762448216112
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 11,
              "remaining_pollsters": 8,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 8.366018650769117,
              "poll_average": 9.03533354272985,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.925703696731045,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07429630326895498,
              "effective_polls": 7.11421951862602,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.09276889358500995
            },
            {
              "pollster": "University of Georgia",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 12,
              "remaining_pollsters": 8,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 8.385374927453144,
              "poll_average": 9.057928625025195,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9255309562369042,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07446904376309582,
              "effective_polls": 6.938908911413469,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.1121251702690369
            },
            {
              "pollster": "YouGov",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 12,
              "remaining_pollsters": 8,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 8.191194844417723,
              "poll_average": 8.846280766515914,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9257244511857208,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07427554881427922,
              "effective_polls": 7.135876139520949,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.08205491276638455
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 9,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            7.544312813874454,
            8.666902311374619
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 0.7289369433096535,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "ID",
          "state_name": "Idaho",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_name": "Todd Achilles",
          "republican_name": "James Risch",
          "baseline_margin": -16.7402088277506,
          "baseline_poll_average": -16.7402088277506,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 1.0,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.0,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": -16.7402088277506,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 5,
            "unique_pollsters": 3,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-22",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-07",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 12,
            "partisan_poll_count": 5,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 2.1253317629492834,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 3,
            "hhi": 0.47051477676704867,
            "effective_pollsters": 2.1253317629492834,
            "max_pollster_share": 0.519571504771486,
            "max_pollster": "Peak Insights",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "Peak Insights",
                "share": 0.519571504771486,
                "poll_count": 3
              },
              {
                "pollster": "VoteNexus",
                "share": 0.4465567525457122,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "The Bullfinch Group",
                "share": 0.03387174268280185,
                "poll_count": 1
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "Peak Insights",
              "omitted_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_pollsters": 2,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-22",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -5.858993614994919,
              "poll_average": -5.858993614994919,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 1.1508340467250897,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 10.88121521275568
            },
            {
              "pollster": "The Bullfinch Group",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 4,
              "remaining_pollsters": 2,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-22",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -17.186871133578435,
              "poll_average": -17.186871133578435,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 1.9886418334265938,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.44666230582783584
            },
            {
              "pollster": "VoteNexus",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 4,
              "remaining_pollsters": 2,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-15",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -25.40616111435653,
              "poll_average": -25.40616111435653,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 1.1298315945494548,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -8.665952286605929
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 3,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            -25.40616111435653,
            -5.858993614994919
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 10.88121521275568,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "IL",
          "state_name": "Illinois",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Juliana Stratton",
          "republican_name": "Don Tracy",
          "baseline_margin": 12.903987317288557,
          "baseline_poll_average": 12.902007351102208,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.913923037322878,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.08607696267712195,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": 12.903987317288557,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 4,
            "unique_pollsters": 3,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-10-01",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 1,
            "partisan_poll_count": 0,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 2.591783257492157,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 3,
            "hhi": 0.38583473255692413,
            "effective_pollsters": 2.591783257492157,
            "max_pollster_share": 0.46177120791479936,
            "max_pollster": "ActiVote",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "ActiVote",
                "share": 0.46177120791479936,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Research Co.",
                "share": 0.3869213733043147,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Public Policy Polling",
                "share": 0.151307418780886,
                "poll_count": 1
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "ActiVote",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_pollsters": 2,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 12.342887270082212,
              "poll_average": 12.28112100468407,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.904073060000222,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.09592693999977797,
              "effective_polls": 1.678370421444605,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.5611000472063452
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Public Policy Polling",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_pollsters": 2,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 12.888245891093437,
              "poll_average": 12.884536932375408,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9083589911464827,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.09164100885351734,
              "effective_polls": 1.9845636043713144,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.01574142619512031
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Research Co.",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_pollsters": 2,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-30",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 13.417485723323095,
              "poll_average": 13.471275154320358,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9015324444432243,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.09846755555677567,
              "effective_polls": 1.591796218111922,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.5134984060345378
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 3,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            12.342887270082212,
            13.417485723323095
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 0.5611000472063452,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "IA",
          "state_name": "Iowa",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Josh Turek",
          "republican_name": "Ashley Hinson",
          "baseline_margin": -0.3068851829238326,
          "baseline_poll_average": 0.504749758981167,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.9287837541729026,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.0712162458270974,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": -0.3068851829238326,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 29,
            "unique_pollsters": 19,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-23",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 2,
            "partisan_poll_count": 5,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 14.293196603509118,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 19,
            "hhi": 0.06996335583563514,
            "effective_pollsters": 14.293196603509118,
            "max_pollster_share": 0.09025060670426606,
            "max_pollster": "co/efficient",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "co/efficient",
                "share": 0.09025060670426606,
                "poll_count": 3
              },
              {
                "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
                "share": 0.09025060670426605,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
                "share": 0.09025060670426605,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
                "share": 0.09025060670426605,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "YouGov",
                "share": 0.09025060670426603,
                "poll_count": 3
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Marist University",
                "share": 0.08513759852677455,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "GrayHouse",
                "share": 0.08181020027235088,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Echelon Insights",
                "share": 0.0514451750487943,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Emerson College",
                "share": 0.04989135651038014,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
                "share": 0.045864256750021495,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group",
                "share": 0.045200449621260415,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "CNN/SSRS",
                "share": 0.04003894943664437,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Suffolk University",
                "share": 0.03825838816455081,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research",
                "share": 0.035649492347303656,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
                "share": 0.03152724534037012,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "National Public Affairs",
                "share": 0.02320569601253711,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Abacus Data",
                "share": 0.007253485250817479,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Cygnal Political",
                "share": 0.007162871191702605,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Global Strategy Group",
                "share": 0.006301802005161904,
                "poll_count": 1
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "Abacus Data",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 28,
              "remaining_pollsters": 18,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -0.35150351451221074,
              "poll_average": 0.4572923253627756,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9287361179499215,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0712638820500785,
              "effective_polls": 14.097198846025705,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.044618331588378135
            },
            {
              "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 28,
              "remaining_pollsters": 18,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -0.6407034787884807,
              "poll_average": 0.148087234227901,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9285522403120443,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07144775968795569,
              "effective_polls": 13.38835771919392,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.33381829586464806
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 28,
              "remaining_pollsters": 18,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -0.3603908851531968,
              "poll_average": 0.4494743050860339,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.928592707105805,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.071407292894195,
              "effective_polls": 13.538192875568853,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.05350570222936418
            },
            {
              "pollster": "CNN/SSRS",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 28,
              "remaining_pollsters": 18,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -0.21223022837155664,
              "poll_average": 0.6092201944143965,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9285772121606904,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07142278783930955,
              "effective_polls": 13.480427228714621,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.09465495455227596
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Cygnal Political",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 28,
              "remaining_pollsters": 18,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -0.3040395622771129,
              "poll_average": 0.5083913003807767,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9287366871002096,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07126331289979038,
              "effective_polls": 14.099508981094218,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.0028456206467197265
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Echelon Insights",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 28,
              "remaining_pollsters": 18,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -0.38489416289578693,
              "poll_average": 0.4236543827651189,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9285461269109293,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0714538730890707,
              "effective_polls": 13.366008587961133,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.07800897997195433
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Emerson College",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 27,
              "remaining_pollsters": 18,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -0.1721669167332615,
              "poll_average": 0.6527088536578356,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.928549557426649,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07145044257335098,
              "effective_polls": 13.378540572627832,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.1347182661905711
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Global Strategy Group",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 28,
              "remaining_pollsters": 18,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -0.32794613338676193,
              "poll_average": 0.4825836978754494,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9287421287104152,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07125787128958483,
              "effective_polls": 14.121634178914357,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.02106095046292933
            },
            {
              "pollster": "GrayHouse",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 28,
              "remaining_pollsters": 18,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -0.10249932376344266,
              "poll_average": 0.7279215688565903,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9285348292557484,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07146517074425163,
              "effective_polls": 13.324902047288885,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.20438585916038993
            },
            {
              "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 27,
              "remaining_pollsters": 18,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -0.2066351317144615,
              "poll_average": 0.6155551140406172,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9285522403120443,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07144775968795569,
              "effective_polls": 13.38835771919392,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.10025005120937111
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Marist University",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 27,
              "remaining_pollsters": 18,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -0.6670657490958612,
              "poll_average": 0.11983518493503166,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9285405468529312,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07145945314706881,
              "effective_polls": 13.345674011052502,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.36018056617202865
            },
            {
              "pollster": "National Public Affairs",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 28,
              "remaining_pollsters": 18,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -0.275249835315134,
              "poll_average": 0.5404980893505297,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9286466783967234,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07135332160327656,
              "effective_polls": 13.743307930439512,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.03163534760869863
            },
            {
              "pollster": "New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 28,
              "remaining_pollsters": 18,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -0.3751472151886728,
              "poll_average": 0.4339642384354777,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9285614696129875,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07143853038701253,
              "effective_polls": 13.422239218814017,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.06826203226484018
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 28,
              "remaining_pollsters": 18,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -0.22106790302345308,
              "poll_average": 0.5993097327782263,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9286089712599208,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07139102874007919,
              "effective_polls": 13.599359006300125,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.08581727990037952
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Suffolk University",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 27,
              "remaining_pollsters": 18,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -0.3865672398594288,
              "poll_average": 0.4214000358993272,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9285832675985407,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07141673240145929,
              "effective_polls": 13.502943543900845,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.07968205693559621
            },
            {
              "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 27,
              "remaining_pollsters": 18,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -0.2913610044528351,
              "poll_average": 0.5243099809612968,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9285522403120443,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07144775968795569,
              "effective_polls": 13.38835771919392,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.015524178470997518
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 27,
              "remaining_pollsters": 18,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -0.2084383389793003,
              "poll_average": 0.6135214247236486,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9285596436601985,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0714403563398015,
              "effective_polls": 13.415522453386044,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.09844684394453229
            },
            {
              "pollster": "YouGov",
              "omitted_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_poll_count": 26,
              "remaining_pollsters": 18,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -0.36488635355340493,
              "poll_average": 0.4451271995209534,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9285522403120443,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07144775968795569,
              "effective_polls": 13.38835771919392,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.05800117062957233
            },
            {
              "pollster": "co/efficient",
              "omitted_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_poll_count": 26,
              "remaining_pollsters": 18,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -0.024043837942181158,
              "poll_average": 0.8121959553905015,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9285522403120443,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07144775968795569,
              "effective_polls": 13.38835771919392,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.2828413449816514
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 19,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            -0.6670657490958612,
            -0.024043837942181158
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 0.36018056617202865,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "KS",
          "state_name": "Kansas",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Adam Hamilton",
          "republican_name": "Roger Marshall",
          "baseline_margin": 2.380345236792601,
          "baseline_poll_average": 3.7790709435583025,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.9270427657236977,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.0729572342763023,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": 2.380345236792601,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 17,
            "unique_pollsters": 12,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-16",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 2,
            "partisan_poll_count": 4,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 9.47158609950883,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 12,
            "hhi": 0.10557893783511688,
            "effective_pollsters": 9.471586099508832,
            "max_pollster_share": 0.11659663160505528,
            "max_pollster": "Emerson College",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "Emerson College",
                "share": 0.11659663160505528,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
                "share": 0.11659663160505526,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
                "share": 0.11659663160505526,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Survey 160",
                "share": 0.11659663160505526,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
                "share": 0.11659663160505526,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "YouGov",
                "share": 0.11659663160505526,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "CNN/SSRS",
                "share": 0.10581671977972915,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government",
                "share": 0.10345429926283672,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
                "share": 0.026499660305641378,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "co/efficient",
                "share": 0.024223884900237736,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "GBAO",
                "share": 0.021657741087214594,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Global Strategy Group",
                "share": 0.018767905034008804,
                "poll_count": 2
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 16,
              "remaining_pollsters": 11,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 1.975010928585971,
              "poll_average": 3.353954295766608,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9264435684921067,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07355643150789326,
              "effective_polls": 8.484085553535234,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.40533430820662986
            },
            {
              "pollster": "CNN/SSRS",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 16,
              "remaining_pollsters": 11,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.3444739250517608,
              "poll_average": 3.7529264286989643,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.926435098183573,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07356490181642705,
              "effective_polls": 8.471591773548793,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.03587131174084002
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Emerson College",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 15,
              "remaining_pollsters": 11,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.560125348266114,
              "poll_average": 3.9855247870297554,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9264435684921067,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07355643150789326,
              "effective_polls": 8.484085553535234,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.17978011147351314
            },
            {
              "pollster": "GBAO",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 16,
              "remaining_pollsters": 11,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.3513331159406965,
              "poll_average": 3.752043014273457,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9268361264062943,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07316387359370569,
              "effective_polls": 9.106218890083213,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.0290121208519043
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Global Strategy Group",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 15,
              "remaining_pollsters": 11,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.413100653682795,
              "poll_average": 3.818156182553299,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9268617089585494,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07313829104145064,
              "effective_polls": 9.149924795451081,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.03275541689019423
            },
            {
              "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 15,
              "remaining_pollsters": 11,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.8569510881937994,
              "poll_average": 4.305917469350173,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9264435684921067,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07355643150789326,
              "effective_polls": 8.484085553535234,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.4766058514011986
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Survey 160",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 16,
              "remaining_pollsters": 11,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.0972882520861167,
              "poll_average": 3.48594001800457,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9264435684921067,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07355643150789326,
              "effective_polls": 8.484085553535234,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.2830569847064841
            },
            {
              "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 15,
              "remaining_pollsters": 11,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.3650369384565066,
              "poll_average": 3.7749470287674405,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9264435684921067,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07355643150789326,
              "effective_polls": 8.484085553535234,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.01530829833609415
            },
            {
              "pollster": "The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 16,
              "remaining_pollsters": 11,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 1.8105661865391325,
              "poll_average": 3.1766169285638055,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9264354002842401,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0735645997157599,
              "effective_polls": 8.472036745799942,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.5697790502534683
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 16,
              "remaining_pollsters": 11,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.4482237731801764,
              "poll_average": 3.8574421560676804,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9267947204014514,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07320527959854861,
              "effective_polls": 9.036352770668342,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.06787853638757557
            },
            {
              "pollster": "YouGov",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 15,
              "remaining_pollsters": 11,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.6341673318976433,
              "poll_average": 4.065445449388113,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9264435684921067,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07355643150789326,
              "effective_polls": 8.484085553535234,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.2538220951050425
            },
            {
              "pollster": "co/efficient",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 16,
              "remaining_pollsters": 11,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.577950708192162,
              "poll_average": 3.9970135645928786,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9268139516708559,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0731860483291441,
              "effective_polls": 9.068669479403258,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.19760547139956142
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 12,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            1.8105661865391325,
            2.8569510881937994
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 0.5697790502534683,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "KY",
          "state_name": "Kentucky",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Charles Booker",
          "republican_name": "Andy Barr",
          "baseline_margin": -11.333676665136048,
          "baseline_poll_average": -9.0,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.863870865699537,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.13612913430046303,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": -11.333676665136048,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 1,
            "unique_pollsters": 1,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-08-27",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-27",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 68,
            "partisan_poll_count": 1,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 1.0,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 1,
            "hhi": 1.0,
            "effective_pollsters": 1.0,
            "max_pollster_share": 1.0,
            "max_pollster": "Global Strategy Group",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "Global Strategy Group",
                "share": 1.0,
                "poll_count": 1
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "Global Strategy Group",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 0,
              "remaining_pollsters": 0,
              "latest_poll_date": null,
              "available": true,
              "margin": -26.143109571131,
              "poll_average": null,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 1.0,
              "effective_polls": 0.0,
              "mode": "historical-only",
              "reason": "No selected polls remain; the existing historical prior supplies the Democratic-candidate mean.",
              "change_pp": -14.809432905994951
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 1,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            -26.143109571131,
            -26.143109571131
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 14.809432905994951,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "LA",
          "state_name": "Louisiana",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Jamie Davis",
          "republican_name": "Julia Letlow",
          "baseline_margin": -3.166761103558491,
          "baseline_poll_average": -0.8417592668271162,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.884364713701989,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.11563528629801101,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": -3.166761103558491,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 2,
            "unique_pollsters": 1,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-29",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-09-19",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 5,
            "partisan_poll_count": 2,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 1.0,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 1,
            "hhi": 1.0,
            "effective_pollsters": 1.0,
            "max_pollster_share": 1.0,
            "max_pollster": "Hart Research Associates",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "Hart Research Associates",
                "share": 1.0,
                "poll_count": 2
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "Hart Research Associates",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 0,
              "remaining_pollsters": 0,
              "latest_poll_date": null,
              "available": true,
              "margin": -20.94809454877093,
              "poll_average": null,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 1.0,
              "effective_polls": 0.0,
              "mode": "historical-only",
              "reason": "No selected polls remain; the existing historical prior supplies the Democratic-candidate mean.",
              "change_pp": -17.78133344521244
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 1,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            -20.94809454877093,
            -20.94809454877093
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 17.78133344521244,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "ME",
          "state_name": "Maine",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Troy Jackson",
          "republican_name": "Susan Collins",
          "baseline_margin": 3.4485141132146633,
          "baseline_poll_average": 3.358720390982072,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.929355556349535,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.07064444365046496,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": 3.4485141132146633,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 30,
            "unique_pollsters": 21,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-10",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 2,
            "partisan_poll_count": 2,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 17.15411534645048,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 21,
            "hhi": 0.05829504931053872,
            "effective_pollsters": 17.154115346450485,
            "max_pollster_share": 0.06891472876867649,
            "max_pollster": "AtlasIntel",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
                "share": 0.06891472876867649,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research",
                "share": 0.06891472876867649,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "CNN/SSRS",
                "share": 0.06891472876867649,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
                "share": 0.06891472876867649,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Marist University",
                "share": 0.06891472876867649,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Survey 160",
                "share": 0.06891472876867649,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
                "share": 0.06891472876867649,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
                "share": 0.06891472876867649,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "YouGov",
                "share": 0.06891472876867649,
                "poll_count": 3
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Emerson College",
                "share": 0.06451230031673594,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Data for Progress",
                "share": 0.05701864494068343,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
                "share": 0.047743435007632395,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Echelon Insights",
                "share": 0.03976757173684028,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "co/efficient",
                "share": 0.03225264756006308,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government",
                "share": 0.030554369777109857,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Suffolk University",
                "share": 0.02944570176668662,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Maine People's Resource Center",
                "share": 0.02317649817821252,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research",
                "share": 0.022041044865483264,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
                "share": 0.013911658331063873,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov",
                "share": 0.0137706683651071,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Abacus Data",
                "share": 0.0055729002362931565,
                "poll_count": 1
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "Abacus Data",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 29,
              "remaining_pollsters": 20,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 3.4243809323340995,
              "poll_average": 3.3327100497152817,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9293249688588728,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07067503114112716,
              "effective_polls": 16.972494008951756,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.02413318088056382
            },
            {
              "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 29,
              "remaining_pollsters": 20,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 3.053878987156975,
              "poll_average": 2.933776791007216,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9291854100355081,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07081458996449186,
              "effective_polls": 16.190245154502634,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.39463512605768836
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 28,
              "remaining_pollsters": 20,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 3.669769334850322,
              "poll_average": 3.5966050500839613,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9291854100355081,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07081458996449186,
              "effective_polls": 16.190245154502634,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.22125522163565892
            },
            {
              "pollster": "CNN/SSRS",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 28,
              "remaining_pollsters": 20,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 3.4162572605216006,
              "poll_average": 3.3237724468266268,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9291854100355081,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07081458996449186,
              "effective_polls": 16.190245154502634,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.032256852693062665
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Data for Progress",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 29,
              "remaining_pollsters": 20,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 3.3565251290143516,
              "poll_average": 3.2594781962420813,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9291787341010173,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07082126589898274,
              "effective_polls": 16.154623079587733,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.09198898420031165
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Echelon Insights",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 29,
              "remaining_pollsters": 20,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 3.308589555382421,
              "poll_average": 3.207918518640151,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9291980169579815,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07080198304201846,
              "effective_polls": 16.25794317773697,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.13992455783224234
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Emerson College",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 29,
              "remaining_pollsters": 20,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 3.7408469182670294,
              "poll_average": 3.673094956273136,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9291809377758325,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07081906222416745,
              "effective_polls": 16.16636436601931,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.29233280505236614
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 29,
              "remaining_pollsters": 20,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 3.456160832210709,
              "poll_average": 3.3668051599698585,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9292501754822565,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07074982451774348,
              "effective_polls": 16.544131882733414,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.007646718996045632
            },
            {
              "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 28,
              "remaining_pollsters": 20,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 3.546760106093982,
              "poll_average": 3.4642211066558786,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9291854100355081,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07081458996449186,
              "effective_polls": 16.190245154502634,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.09824599287931868
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Maine People's Resource Center",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 29,
              "remaining_pollsters": 20,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 3.460971941300092,
              "poll_average": 3.3719768104883343,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9292459205144643,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07075407948553569,
              "effective_polls": 16.520409610143783,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.012457828085428613
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Marist University",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 28,
              "remaining_pollsters": 20,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 3.495744414639782,
              "poll_average": 3.409317434145297,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9291854100355081,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07081458996449186,
              "effective_polls": 16.190245154502634,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.047230301425118526
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 29,
              "remaining_pollsters": 20,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 3.4952607214149376,
              "poll_average": 3.408926544004165,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9292840977337253,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07071590226627467,
              "effective_polls": 16.735711906193433,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.04674660820027432
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Suffolk University",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 29,
              "remaining_pollsters": 20,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 3.4869853003867437,
              "poll_average": 3.3999426857985506,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9292246303705216,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07077536962947839,
              "effective_polls": 16.40272422003159,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.03847118717208042
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Survey 160",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 29,
              "remaining_pollsters": 20,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 3.4734010558335897,
              "poll_average": 3.3852712550244495,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9291854100355081,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07081458996449186,
              "effective_polls": 16.190245154502634,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.024886942618926433
            },
            {
              "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 28,
              "remaining_pollsters": 20,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 3.392287620468819,
              "poll_average": 3.2979760451678173,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9291854100355081,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07081458996449186,
              "effective_polls": 16.190245154502634,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.056226492745844237
            },
            {
              "pollster": "The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 29,
              "remaining_pollsters": 20,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 3.4299039101655677,
              "poll_average": 3.338508948799441,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9292212605792566,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07077873942074342,
              "effective_polls": 16.384250079789666,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.018610203049095553
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 28,
              "remaining_pollsters": 20,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 3.6162916734863457,
              "poll_average": 3.539051330698085,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9291850295739048,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07081497042609519,
              "effective_polls": 16.18821084484762,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.16777756027168245
            },
            {
              "pollster": "University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 29,
              "remaining_pollsters": 20,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 3.4273076150981203,
              "poll_average": 3.3358032899942813,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9292847385389598,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07071526146104024,
              "effective_polls": 16.73937350423128,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.02120649811654296
            },
            {
              "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 28,
              "remaining_pollsters": 20,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 3.126947402979188,
              "poll_average": 3.012413858521461,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9291854100355081,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07081458996449186,
              "effective_polls": 16.190245154502634,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.3215667102354751
            },
            {
              "pollster": "YouGov",
              "omitted_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_poll_count": 27,
              "remaining_pollsters": 20,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 3.4218597718229313,
              "poll_average": 3.3298019337738194,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9291854100355081,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07081458996449186,
              "effective_polls": 16.190245154502634,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.02665434139173195
            },
            {
              "pollster": "co/efficient",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 29,
              "remaining_pollsters": 20,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 3.614642623809455,
              "poll_average": 3.5373134087852334,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9292163334742716,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07078366652572843,
              "effective_polls": 16.357312851502254,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.16612851059479183
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 21,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            3.053878987156975,
            3.7408469182670294
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 0.39463512605768836,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "MA",
          "state_name": "Massachusetts",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Ed Markey",
          "republican_name": "John Deaton",
          "baseline_margin": 25.438278929574523,
          "baseline_poll_average": 25.56820860461856,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.920809468755591,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.079190531244409,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": 25.438278929574523,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 8,
            "unique_pollsters": 5,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-31",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-12",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 3,
            "partisan_poll_count": 0,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 4.4111464618427485,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 5,
            "hhi": 0.2266984351234286,
            "effective_pollsters": 4.4111464618427485,
            "max_pollster_share": 0.31624452512664053,
            "max_pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
                "share": 0.31624452512664053,
                "poll_count": 3
              },
              {
                "pollster": "UMass Lowell",
                "share": 0.22197326298263095,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "YouGov",
                "share": 0.2002445598670349,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Suffolk University",
                "share": 0.17024572116788797,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "MassINC Polling Group",
                "share": 0.09129193085580564,
                "poll_count": 1
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "MassINC Polling Group",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 7,
              "remaining_pollsters": 4,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-31",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 25.395438353490846,
              "poll_average": 25.524829359347393,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9189961098911341,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.08100389010886588,
              "effective_polls": 3.7815277643030836,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.04284057608367675
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Suffolk University",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 7,
              "remaining_pollsters": 4,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-31",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 24.937865539136023,
              "poll_average": 25.028227991682414,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9179076717438784,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.08209232825612156,
              "effective_polls": 3.482248472793238,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.5004133904384993
            },
            {
              "pollster": "UMass Lowell",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 7,
              "remaining_pollsters": 4,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-31",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 24.534606665004034,
              "poll_average": 24.589108661564122,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.917623714910605,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.08237628508939498,
              "effective_polls": 3.4117015586602526,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.9036722645704884
            },
            {
              "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
              "omitted_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_poll_count": 5,
              "remaining_pollsters": 4,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-18",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 27.291193484242935,
              "poll_average": 27.607550867647863,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.914034829248064,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.085965170751936,
              "effective_polls": 3.6903428632708626,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 1.8529145546684127
            },
            {
              "pollster": "YouGov",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 6,
              "remaining_pollsters": 4,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-31",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 25.266576178366122,
              "poll_average": 25.386684100986812,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.917689076655336,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.08231092334466406,
              "effective_polls": 3.427689571849204,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.17170275120840017
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 5,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            24.534606665004034,
            27.291193484242935
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 1.8529145546684127,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "MI",
          "state_name": "Michigan",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rogers",
          "baseline_margin": 4.161327420777531,
          "baseline_poll_average": 4.437535930335565,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.9304616846079211,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.06953831539207889,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": 4.161327420777531,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 49,
            "unique_pollsters": 34,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-10",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 1,
            "partisan_poll_count": 13,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 23.113966605018458,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 34,
            "hhi": 0.043263885298808126,
            "effective_pollsters": 23.113966605018458,
            "max_pollster_share": 0.054109955439348996,
            "max_pollster": "AtlasIntel",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
                "share": 0.054109955439348996,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Emerson College",
                "share": 0.054109955439348996,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "John Zogby Strategies",
                "share": 0.054109955439348996,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Michigan State University Office for Survey Research/Verasight",
                "share": 0.054109955439348996,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Mitchell Research & Communications",
                "share": 0.054109955439348996,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
                "share": 0.054109955439348996,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "CNN/SSRS",
                "share": 0.05410995543934899,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
                "share": 0.05410995543934899,
                "poll_count": 3
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Marist University",
                "share": 0.05410995543934899,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "YouGov",
                "share": 0.05410995543934899,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
                "share": 0.05183905314428362,
                "poll_count": 3
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov",
                "share": 0.044116263759236975,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Research Co.",
                "share": 0.04386703534515188,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Glengariff Group, Inc.",
                "share": 0.04363861351062677,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Data for Progress",
                "share": 0.04093397199935368,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research",
                "share": 0.02582160974167934,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
                "share": 0.023911933338574328,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners",
                "share": 0.023350012644371195,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "The Tyson Group",
                "share": 0.01944686388896419,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Upswing Research",
                "share": 0.018441845919660527,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "co/efficient",
                "share": 0.016572579413493153,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Big Data Poll",
                "share": 0.015361227817700548,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Cygnal/Beacon Research",
                "share": 0.013088275355520464,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government",
                "share": 0.012017696689740365,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Suffolk University",
                "share": 0.011559978824149207,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "GBAO",
                "share": 0.00969922915962112,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Guidant Polling and Strategy",
                "share": 0.00921150020463988,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Z to A Research",
                "share": 0.008167666280253682,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Torchlight Strategies",
                "share": 0.006341803268218682,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "EPIC-MRA",
                "share": 0.00592718035694849,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc.",
                "share": 0.004760308864838187,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Abacus Data",
                "share": 0.004409014825449536,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research",
                "share": 0.0040886634608963204,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "TIPP Insights",
                "share": 0.002328117793137828,
                "poll_count": 1
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "Abacus Data",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 48,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.1589386364690055,
              "poll_average": 4.435045035521467,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9304437726888574,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06955622731114264,
              "effective_polls": 22.920895144526217,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.0023887843085255156
            },
            {
              "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 48,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.019269984903903,
              "poll_average": 4.285228785338255,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9303722873210283,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06962771267897172,
              "effective_polls": 22.181376941004338,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.14205743587362818
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 47,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.266015084744869,
              "poll_average": 4.550397285585922,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9303820001147918,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06961799988520823,
              "effective_polls": 22.279048874636995,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.1046876639673382
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Big Data Poll",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 48,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.158751157089737,
              "poll_average": 4.43500134845964,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9304067828741964,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06959321712580357,
              "effective_polls": 22.532196704560093,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.002576263687793734
            },
            {
              "pollster": "CNN/SSRS",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 47,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.059272942091744,
              "poll_average": 4.328225505826381,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9303722873210283,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06962771267897172,
              "effective_polls": 22.181376941004338,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.10205447868578688
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 48,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.037299202015859,
              "poll_average": 4.304547031505804,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9303868889330636,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06961311106693635,
              "effective_polls": 22.328536253086813,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.12402821876167192
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Cygnal/Beacon Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 48,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.154196002407252,
              "poll_average": 4.430076616156268,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9304135552679015,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06958644473209852,
              "effective_polls": 22.602376074776032,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.007131418370279086
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Data for Progress",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 48,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.178320832723258,
              "poll_average": 4.456210435529336,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9303658370471373,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06963416295286273,
              "effective_polls": 22.11698365763281,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.016993411945726677
            },
            {
              "pollster": "EPIC-MRA",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 48,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.163660681572521,
              "poll_average": 4.440144747637978,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9304379985143056,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06956200148569436,
              "effective_polls": 22.859339748665242,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.0023332607949901885
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Emerson College",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 47,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.1200534871410825,
              "poll_average": 4.393554778718154,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9303722873210283,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06962771267897172,
              "effective_polls": 22.181376941004338,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.04127393363644849
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 48,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.174392242468743,
              "poll_average": 4.45164855968139,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9304450170839306,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06955498291606943,
              "effective_polls": 22.934204322180893,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.013064821691211925
            },
            {
              "pollster": "GBAO",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 47,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.161617246680036,
              "poll_average": 4.438005991167314,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.930424542364178,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06957545763582196,
              "effective_polls": 22.717163012544464,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.0002898259025050365
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Glengariff Group, Inc.",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 47,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.136002063813618,
              "poll_average": 4.41072552798857,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.930365541795773,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06963445820422698,
              "effective_polls": 22.11404508002985,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.025325356963913137
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Guidant Polling and Strategy",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 48,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.156321029773744,
              "poll_average": 4.432306622674155,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9304262100582732,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0695737899417268,
              "effective_polls": 22.7346878873348,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.005006391003787414
            },
            {
              "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
              "omitted_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_poll_count": 46,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.30755993335237,
              "poll_average": 4.595093935426277,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9303722873210283,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06962771267897172,
              "effective_polls": 22.181376941004338,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.14623251257483894
            },
            {
              "pollster": "John Zogby Strategies",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 48,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.289188742705428,
              "poll_average": 4.5769759861123775,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9300038664306067,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06999613356939327,
              "effective_polls": 22.181376941004338,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.127861321927897
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Marist University",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 47,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.200773565693342,
              "poll_average": 4.480315830882218,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9303722873210283,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06962771267897172,
              "effective_polls": 22.181376941004338,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.03944614491581078
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 47,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.231520857212104,
              "poll_average": 4.513393410345145,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9303655747523896,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06963442524761043,
              "effective_polls": 22.11437305199875,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.07019343643457265
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Michigan State University Office for Survey Research/Verasight",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 48,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 3.9075032452847216,
              "poll_average": 4.165097585019499,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9303722873210283,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06962771267897172,
              "effective_polls": 22.181376941004338,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.25382417549280945
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Mitchell Research & Communications",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 47,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.07005455027256,
              "poll_average": 4.339813993927054,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9303722873210283,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06962771267897172,
              "effective_polls": 22.181376941004338,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.09127287050497124
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 48,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.234816690164426,
              "poll_average": 4.516848182981183,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9303857239646924,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06961427603530757,
              "effective_polls": 22.316723891179908,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.07348926938689537
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Research Co.",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 48,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.264991409271828,
              "poll_average": 4.54936919910034,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9303655543495019,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06963444565049814,
              "effective_polls": 22.11417000891732,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.10366398849429714
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Suffolk University",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 48,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.131095918224974,
              "poll_average": 4.405228430169996,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9304183791779331,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06958162082206687,
              "effective_polls": 22.6526307148521,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.030231502552557465
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc.",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 48,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.149846960143006,
              "poll_average": 4.425279465349989,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9304424184779221,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06955758152207792,
              "effective_polls": 22.906428954009744,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.011480460634524903
            },
            {
              "pollster": "TIPP Insights",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 48,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.164041163687509,
              "poll_average": 4.440493789533047,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9304520162238961,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06954798377610394,
              "effective_polls": 23.009350440858025,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.0027137429099779453
            },
            {
              "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 47,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 3.8668347299273886,
              "poll_average": 4.1213854969537245,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9303722873210283,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06962771267897172,
              "effective_polls": 22.181376941004338,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.2944926908501424
            },
            {
              "pollster": "The Tyson Group",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 47,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.25714404319789,
              "poll_average": 4.540801833769006,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9303958381430196,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06960416185698037,
              "effective_polls": 22.41969573746641,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.09581662242035893
            },
            {
              "pollster": "The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 48,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.177418863337255,
              "poll_average": 4.455021942720091,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9304169118011425,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0695830881988575,
              "effective_polls": 22.63732026452814,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.01609144255972428
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Torchlight Strategies",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 48,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.195298451643164,
              "poll_average": 4.474154482101355,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9304364570500983,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06956354294990175,
              "effective_polls": 22.84296276419408,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.03397103086563291
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
              "omitted_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_poll_count": 46,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.316932212535611,
              "poll_average": 4.605178978143411,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9303697351705338,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06963026482946622,
              "effective_polls": 22.1558540730508,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.15560479175807984
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Upswing Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 48,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.151243750810188,
              "poll_average": 4.426968165537343,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9303983823467522,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0696016176532478,
              "effective_polls": 22.445747523528933,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.010083669967342779
            },
            {
              "pollster": "YouGov",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 47,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.232904051595981,
              "poll_average": 4.514850915751478,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9303722873210283,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06962771267897172,
              "effective_polls": 22.181376941004338,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.07157663081845023
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Z to A Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 48,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.141567324719493,
              "poll_average": 4.416434227290991,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9304298516364753,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06957014836352471,
              "effective_polls": 22.773049140333434,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.019760096058037746
            },
            {
              "pollster": "co/efficient",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 48,
              "remaining_pollsters": 33,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.230672040901987,
              "poll_average": 4.5123166564636366,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9304033719997821,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06959662800021793,
              "effective_polls": 22.49701567328081,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.06934462012445586
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 34,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            3.8668347299273886,
            4.316932212535611
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 0.2944926908501424,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "MN",
          "state_name": "Minnesota",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Peggy Flanagan",
          "republican_name": "Michele Tafoya",
          "baseline_margin": 5.477613619971191,
          "baseline_poll_average": 5.2855339049001655,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.9278631431829554,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.07213685681704463,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": 5.477613619971191,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 19,
            "unique_pollsters": 15,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-17",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 2,
            "partisan_poll_count": 4,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 11.26383122261768,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 15,
            "hhi": 0.08877973934765715,
            "effective_pollsters": 11.26383122261768,
            "max_pollster_share": 0.11680269133951915,
            "max_pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
                "share": 0.11680269133951915,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
                "share": 0.11680269133951914,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Survey 160",
                "share": 0.11680269133951914,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "SurveyUSA",
                "share": 0.11680269133951914,
                "poll_count": 4
              },
              {
                "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
                "share": 0.10041718701356615,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Research Co.",
                "share": 0.09469214579455208,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Morning Consult",
                "share": 0.061849851146715464,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Victory Insights",
                "share": 0.05544115278524976,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.",
                "share": 0.05532018862491963,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
                "share": 0.04183092604539399,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Big Data Poll",
                "share": 0.03871600338991835,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "co/efficient",
                "share": 0.02730840921431542,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "GQR",
                "share": 0.02505240197456635,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
                "share": 0.02152614895348093,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "TIPP Insights",
                "share": 0.010634819699245233,
                "poll_count": 1
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 18,
              "remaining_pollsters": 14,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 5.832537623208171,
              "poll_average": 5.667145264829407,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9274945109904348,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07250548900956522,
              "effective_polls": 10.381554080500877,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.35492400323698003
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Big Data Poll",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 18,
              "remaining_pollsters": 14,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 5.593623600404436,
              "poll_average": 5.4098047151322,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9275859353864633,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07241406461353672,
              "effective_polls": 10.587286227005874,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.11600998043324573
            },
            {
              "pollster": "GQR",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 18,
              "remaining_pollsters": 14,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 5.389585284040199,
              "poll_average": 5.190086418364679,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.927669583373265,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.072330416626735,
              "effective_polls": 10.782756632549201,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.08802833593099191
            },
            {
              "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 17,
              "remaining_pollsters": 14,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 5.832827380466053,
              "poll_average": 5.667457673425306,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9274945109904348,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07250548900956522,
              "effective_polls": 10.381554080500877,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.35521376049486264
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 18,
              "remaining_pollsters": 14,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 5.548383080211298,
              "poll_average": 5.360814415022734,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9275077910509021,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07249220894909791,
              "effective_polls": 10.41094289776698,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.07076946024010766
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Morning Consult",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 18,
              "remaining_pollsters": 14,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 5.557227424057319,
              "poll_average": 5.37028588277846,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9274847171101341,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07251528288986586,
              "effective_polls": 10.359985739299796,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.0796138040861285
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 18,
              "remaining_pollsters": 14,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 5.514505492921361,
              "poll_average": 5.324815147579532,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9276938017385182,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07230619826148177,
              "effective_polls": 10.8406984958672,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.0368918729501706
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Research Co.",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 18,
              "remaining_pollsters": 14,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 5.5064316597475536,
              "poll_average": 5.315399787568139,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9274428422146513,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07255715778534866,
              "effective_polls": 10.268764554330708,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.02881803977636288
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Survey 160",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 18,
              "remaining_pollsters": 14,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 5.022975097871566,
              "poll_average": 4.794296406163811,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9274945109904348,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07250548900956522,
              "effective_polls": 10.381554080500877,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.45463852209962496
            },
            {
              "pollster": "SurveyUSA",
              "omitted_poll_count": 4,
              "remaining_poll_count": 15,
              "remaining_pollsters": 14,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 5.533108467613195,
              "poll_average": 5.344308685154959,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9274945109904348,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07250548900956522,
              "effective_polls": 10.381554080500877,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.055494847642004075
            },
            {
              "pollster": "TIPP Insights",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 18,
              "remaining_pollsters": 14,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 5.509616919207725,
              "poll_average": 5.319775638285353,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9277750094791667,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07222499052083331,
              "effective_polls": 11.039591220095677,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.032003299236534666
            },
            {
              "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 18,
              "remaining_pollsters": 14,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 4.586877832472161,
              "poll_average": 4.323932104147766,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9274495251338409,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07255047486615906,
              "effective_polls": 10.283215439132245,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.8907357874990298
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 18,
              "remaining_pollsters": 14,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 5.550701444928765,
              "poll_average": 5.363485217207875,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9275692377773342,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07243076222266576,
              "effective_polls": 10.549108265326788,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.07308782495757438
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Victory Insights",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 18,
              "remaining_pollsters": 14,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 5.581210115011045,
              "poll_average": 5.3962058589150885,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9275073228557481,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0724926771442519,
              "effective_polls": 10.409903965287459,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.10359649503985402
            },
            {
              "pollster": "co/efficient",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 18,
              "remaining_pollsters": 14,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 5.5897812143055745,
              "poll_average": 5.405850678156431,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9276546410587598,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07234535894124017,
              "effective_polls": 10.747313956197582,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.11216759433438384
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 15,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            4.586877832472161,
            5.832827380466053
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 0.8907357874990298,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "MS",
          "state_name": "Mississippi",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Scott Colom",
          "republican_name": "Cindy Hyde-Smith",
          "baseline_margin": -5.246776627755804,
          "baseline_poll_average": -3.313114517821453,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.8903754384477829,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.10962456155221711,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": -5.246776627755804,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 2,
            "unique_pollsters": 2,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-22",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-15",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 12,
            "partisan_poll_count": 2,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 1.229946021276522,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 2,
            "hhi": 0.8130438106236006,
            "effective_pollsters": 1.2299460212765225,
            "max_pollster_share": 0.8956284940595158,
            "max_pollster": "Change Research",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "Change Research",
                "share": 0.8956284940595158,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Data for Progress",
                "share": 0.1043715059404842,
                "poll_count": 1
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "Change Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_pollsters": 1,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-08-15",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -8.092175148110863,
              "poll_average": -6.0,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.8600744927558043,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.13992550724419572,
              "effective_polls": 1.0,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -2.845398520355059
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Data for Progress",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_pollsters": 1,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-22",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -5.117630362885239,
              "poll_average": -3.0,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.8820397278181334,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.11796027218186655,
              "effective_polls": 1.0,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.12914626487056502
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 2,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            -8.092175148110863,
            -5.117630362885239
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 2.845398520355059,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "MT",
          "state_name": "Montana",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_name": "Seth Bodnar",
          "republican_name": "Kurt Alme",
          "baseline_margin": -10.05393223477709,
          "baseline_poll_average": -10.05393223477709,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 1.0,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.0,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": -10.05393223477709,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 10,
            "unique_pollsters": 7,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-23",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-25",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 11,
            "partisan_poll_count": 5,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 5.023196513849966,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 7,
            "hhi": 0.1990764241937974,
            "effective_pollsters": 5.023196513849966,
            "max_pollster_share": 0.291612608485722,
            "max_pollster": "Quantus Insights",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
                "share": 0.291612608485722,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Montana State University Billings",
                "share": 0.2523281253327312,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners",
                "share": 0.16331144511431536,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Peak Insights",
                "share": 0.09566573658733003,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "American Pulse Research & Polling",
                "share": 0.09479366536669197,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Rutgers-Eagleton",
                "share": 0.06397322615775722,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Aspect Strategic",
                "share": 0.03831519295545215,
                "poll_count": 1
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "American Pulse Research & Polling",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 9,
              "remaining_pollsters": 6,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-23",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -9.117095491994219,
              "poll_average": -9.117095491994219,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 4.310568602845477,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.9368367427828712
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Aspect Strategic",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 9,
              "remaining_pollsters": 6,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-23",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -9.976397515103134,
              "poll_average": -9.976397515103134,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 4.680154323654349,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.07753471967395598
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 8,
              "remaining_pollsters": 6,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-21",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -12.285160042982493,
              "poll_average": -12.285160042982493,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 4.060465214971429,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -2.2312278082054036
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Montana State University Billings",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 9,
              "remaining_pollsters": 6,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-23",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -12.09704422474261,
              "poll_average": -12.09704422474261,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 4.128394206045874,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -2.043111989965521
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Peak Insights",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 8,
              "remaining_pollsters": 6,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-23",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -9.39486686179416,
              "poll_average": -9.39486686179416,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 4.306029493704468,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.6590653729829299
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 8,
              "remaining_pollsters": 6,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-23",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -7.220444622006714,
              "poll_average": -7.220444622006714,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 4.400379249833504,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 2.8334876127703756
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Rutgers-Eagleton",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 9,
              "remaining_pollsters": 6,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-23",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -10.194309278511364,
              "poll_average": -10.194309278511364,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 4.493429168485211,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.14037704373427395
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 7,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            -12.285160042982493,
            -7.220444622006714
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 2.8334876127703756,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "NE",
          "state_name": "Nebraska",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_name": "Dan Osborn",
          "republican_name": "Pete Ricketts",
          "baseline_margin": -1.756586632626388,
          "baseline_poll_average": -1.756586632626388,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 1.0,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.0,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": -1.756586632626388,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 15,
            "unique_pollsters": 10,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-13",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 2,
            "partisan_poll_count": 8,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 8.004591004866318,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 10,
            "hhi": 0.12492830669200447,
            "effective_pollsters": 8.00459100486632,
            "max_pollster_share": 0.16257643429052532,
            "max_pollster": "National Public Affairs",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "National Public Affairs",
                "share": 0.16257643429052532,
                "poll_count": 3
              },
              {
                "pollster": "YouGov",
                "share": 0.16257643429052532,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
                "share": 0.16005985579232665,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "GrayHouse",
                "share": 0.14357640474081915,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Echelon Insights",
                "share": 0.09313154225007038,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "GBAO",
                "share": 0.07794806624436529,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "co/efficient",
                "share": 0.07208545655023402,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Impact Research",
                "share": 0.056635584352779864,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners",
                "share": 0.043760350142995466,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "SurveyUSA",
                "share": 0.027649871345358488,
                "poll_count": 1
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 14,
              "remaining_pollsters": 9,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -2.1573138950427775,
              "poll_average": -2.1573138950427775,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 7.433293653353564,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.40072726241638956
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Echelon Insights",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 14,
              "remaining_pollsters": 9,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -1.834284869167892,
              "poll_average": -1.834284869167892,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 7.074204594382355,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.07769823654150398
            },
            {
              "pollster": "GBAO",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 13,
              "remaining_pollsters": 9,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -1.9896218767184404,
              "poll_average": -1.9896218767184404,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 7.153239884509444,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.23303524409205245
            },
            {
              "pollster": "GrayHouse",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 14,
              "remaining_pollsters": 9,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-29",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -1.380486268953526,
              "poll_average": -1.380486268953526,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 7.031275876904089,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.3761003636728619
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Impact Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 13,
              "remaining_pollsters": 9,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -1.753479216832404,
              "poll_average": -1.753479216832404,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 7.311297867921847,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.003107415793983881
            },
            {
              "pollster": "National Public Affairs",
              "omitted_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_poll_count": 12,
              "remaining_pollsters": 9,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -1.7042077316764623,
              "poll_average": -1.7042077316764623,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 7.119777610992011,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.05237890094992559
            },
            {
              "pollster": "SurveyUSA",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 14,
              "remaining_pollsters": 9,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -1.9202816588210763,
              "poll_average": -1.9202816588210763,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 7.614657725456552,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.16369502619468834
            },
            {
              "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 14,
              "remaining_pollsters": 9,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -1.0070313450322654,
              "poll_average": -1.0070313450322654,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 7.104072999707029,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.7495552875941225
            },
            {
              "pollster": "YouGov",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 13,
              "remaining_pollsters": 9,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -2.1536403932744266,
              "poll_average": -2.1536403932744266,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 7.119777610992011,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.39705376064803866
            },
            {
              "pollster": "co/efficient",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 14,
              "remaining_pollsters": 9,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -1.5823060612530826,
              "poll_average": -1.5823060612530826,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 7.191272555701913,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.17428057137330533
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 10,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            -2.1573138950427775,
            -1.0070313450322654
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 0.7495552875941225,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "NH",
          "state_name": "New Hampshire",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Chris Pappas",
          "republican_name": "John Sununu",
          "baseline_margin": 7.151632190862992,
          "baseline_poll_average": 7.2878487430086185,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.9260233457974149,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.07397665420258515,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": 7.151632190862992,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 16,
            "unique_pollsters": 11,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-18",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 2,
            "partisan_poll_count": 4,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 7.905420634432575,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 11,
            "hhi": 0.12649548281396122,
            "effective_pollsters": 7.9054206344325735,
            "max_pollster_share": 0.1672099970349773,
            "max_pollster": "AtlasIntel",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
                "share": 0.1672099970349773,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
                "share": 0.1672099970349773,
                "poll_count": 3
              },
              {
                "pollster": "St. Anselm",
                "share": 0.16720999703497727,
                "poll_count": 3
              },
              {
                "pollster": "National Public Affairs",
                "share": 0.12229696520806022,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "YouGov",
                "share": 0.10215447864262296,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "UMass Lowell",
                "share": 0.10191563475256359,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
                "share": 0.050123736378970184,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
                "share": 0.042252932893114,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "co/efficient",
                "share": 0.03673897186876862,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
                "share": 0.033104273842215044,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Fabrizio, Lee & Associates",
                "share": 0.009783015308753557,
                "poll_count": 1
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 15,
              "remaining_pollsters": 10,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-31",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 6.998745552415306,
              "poll_average": 7.124782653370191,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9249009862336388,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07509901376636119,
              "effective_polls": 7.038413164601527,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.15288663844768635
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Fabrizio, Lee & Associates",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 15,
              "remaining_pollsters": 10,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 7.227230076273522,
              "poll_average": 7.3697299391332916,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9259058277604817,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07409417223951831,
              "effective_polls": 7.757368820243609,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.07559788541052992
            },
            {
              "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 15,
              "remaining_pollsters": 10,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 7.120758405867691,
              "poll_average": 7.255546316466741,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9254921345173428,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0745078654826572,
              "effective_polls": 7.2773221578933525,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.030873784995301357
            },
            {
              "pollster": "National Public Affairs",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 14,
              "remaining_pollsters": 10,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 7.359649264434752,
              "poll_average": 7.514470342036206,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.925133671045136,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.074866328954864,
              "effective_polls": 6.906670002628974,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.20801707357176014
            },
            {
              "pollster": "St. Anselm",
              "omitted_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_poll_count": 13,
              "remaining_pollsters": 10,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 7.203712315412192,
              "poll_average": 7.345643850170843,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9252653744134656,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07473462558653443,
              "effective_polls": 7.038413164601527,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.052080124549199525
            },
            {
              "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 15,
              "remaining_pollsters": 10,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 7.244204364591755,
              "poll_average": 7.388781779222396,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9255629719015716,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07443702809842845,
              "effective_polls": 7.355289679590244,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.09257217372876259
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 15,
              "remaining_pollsters": 10,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 7.163239545182518,
              "poll_average": 7.301127787119133,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9256516529524043,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07434834704759574,
              "effective_polls": 7.455266370896424,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.01160735431952542
            },
            {
              "pollster": "UMass Lowell",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 15,
              "remaining_pollsters": 10,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 7.180289561837327,
              "poll_average": 7.320514145605143,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9251740685921995,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07482593140780047,
              "effective_polls": 6.9465563124566545,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.02865737097433474
            },
            {
              "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
              "omitted_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_poll_count": 13,
              "remaining_pollsters": 10,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 6.599739912953067,
              "poll_average": 6.6928879823291565,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9252653744134656,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07473462558653443,
              "effective_polls": 7.038413164601527,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.5518922779099249
            },
            {
              "pollster": "YouGov",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 15,
              "remaining_pollsters": 10,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 7.075103216219668,
              "poll_average": 7.206822064540969,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9251732844086331,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07482671559136689,
              "effective_polls": 6.945777702097416,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.07652897464332398
            },
            {
              "pollster": "co/efficient",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 15,
              "remaining_pollsters": 10,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 7.408165597455,
              "poll_average": 7.56580877890115,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9256156292231381,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07438437077686189,
              "effective_polls": 7.414330498384897,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.2565334065920073
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 11,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            6.599739912953067,
            7.408165597455
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 0.5518922779099249,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "NJ",
          "state_name": "New Jersey",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Democratic candidate",
          "republican_name": "Republican candidate",
          "baseline_margin": 7.8617628080517195,
          "baseline_poll_average": null,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.0,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 1.0,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": 7.8617628080517195,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 0,
            "unique_pollsters": 0,
            "latest_poll_date": null,
            "oldest_poll_date": null,
            "latest_poll_age_days": null,
            "partisan_poll_count": 0,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 0,
            "has_polls": false,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": false,
            "pollster_count": 0,
            "hhi": null,
            "effective_pollsters": null,
            "max_pollster_share": null,
            "max_pollster": null,
            "pollsters": [],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [],
          "available_omissions": 0,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": null,
          "max_absolute_change_pp": null,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "NM",
          "state_name": "New Mexico",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Ben Ray Luj\u00e1n",
          "republican_name": "Larry Marker",
          "baseline_margin": 16.818502831739263,
          "baseline_poll_average": 17.64072695176501,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.9143993640784521,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.08560063592154787,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": 16.818502831739263,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 4,
            "unique_pollsters": 3,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-28",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 1,
            "partisan_poll_count": 0,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 2.6610246101191586,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 3,
            "hhi": 0.37579509644415526,
            "effective_pollsters": 2.661024610119159,
            "max_pollster_share": 0.4514746673428378,
            "max_pollster": "Research Co.",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "Research Co.",
                "share": 0.4514746673428378,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Research & Polling Inc.",
                "share": 0.3780068249798131,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "SurveyUSA",
                "share": 0.17051850767734908,
                "poll_count": 1
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "Research & Polling Inc.",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_pollsters": 2,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 17.697271371143497,
              "poll_average": 18.725851481132707,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9037853699602502,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.09621463003974984,
              "effective_polls": 1.6610804998444282,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.8787685394042342
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Research Co.",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_pollsters": 2,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-09",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 15.647019689688928,
              "poll_average": 16.521950277755796,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.8969041458666958,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.10309585413330424,
              "effective_polls": 1.7496512588751112,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -1.1714831420503344
            },
            {
              "pollster": "SurveyUSA",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_pollsters": 2,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 16.69337974365421,
              "poll_average": 17.566870326149193,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9083574322769578,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.09164256772304225,
              "effective_polls": 1.984432548834654,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.12512308808505423
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 3,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            15.647019689688928,
            17.697271371143497
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 1.1714831420503344,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "NC",
          "state_name": "North Carolina",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Roy Cooper",
          "republican_name": "Michael Whatley",
          "baseline_margin": 9.983415190305381,
          "baseline_poll_average": 10.886274954739477,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.9278579645895546,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.0721420354104454,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": 9.983415190305381,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 27,
            "unique_pollsters": 14,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-06",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 2,
            "partisan_poll_count": 4,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 11.250404834112196,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 14,
            "hhi": 0.08888569031470883,
            "effective_pollsters": 11.250404834112198,
            "max_pollster_share": 0.11446683257964815,
            "max_pollster": "Quantus Insights",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
                "share": 0.11446683257964815,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
                "share": 0.11446683257964814,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "YouGov",
                "share": 0.11446683257964814,
                "poll_count": 5
              },
              {
                "pollster": "East Carolina University Center for Survey Research",
                "share": 0.11446683257964813,
                "poll_count": 3
              },
              {
                "pollster": "High Point University",
                "share": 0.10652137803967077,
                "poll_count": 3
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Harper Polling",
                "share": 0.10189549512292372,
                "poll_count": 3
              },
              {
                "pollster": "ActiVote",
                "share": 0.058877230372896,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "SurveyUSA",
                "share": 0.05546384937951867,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
                "share": 0.04789270182630516,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Big Data Poll",
                "share": 0.03729536784741111,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research",
                "share": 0.03651841833603481,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
                "share": 0.03431317171280027,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Opinion Diagnostics",
                "share": 0.032015842634421914,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Change Research",
                "share": 0.03133921440942498,
                "poll_count": 2
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "ActiVote",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 26,
              "remaining_pollsters": 13,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 9.809728523847928,
              "poll_average": 10.703990489556412,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9274888194170275,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07251118058297246,
              "effective_polls": 10.369009086108932,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.1736866664574528
            },
            {
              "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 26,
              "remaining_pollsters": 13,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-29",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 9.484305817567266,
              "poll_average": 10.367448094628784,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9263815192858138,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0736184807141862,
              "effective_polls": 10.347553317410037,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.49910937273811484
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Big Data Poll",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 26,
              "remaining_pollsters": 13,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 9.929237769788692,
              "poll_average": 10.831506966888213,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9275882666746879,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07241173332531214,
              "effective_polls": 10.592638446398922,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.05417742051668917
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Change Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 25,
              "remaining_pollsters": 13,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 10.01740921030656,
              "poll_average": 10.926084276509513,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9276235230244464,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0723764769755536,
              "effective_polls": 10.674242190078969,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.03399402000117924
            },
            {
              "pollster": "East Carolina University Center for Survey Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_poll_count": 24,
              "remaining_pollsters": 13,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 10.265691768498515,
              "poll_average": 11.19573602978798,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9274790532666212,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07252094673337883,
              "effective_polls": 10.347553317410037,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.2822765781931338
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 26,
              "remaining_pollsters": 13,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 9.976096826989084,
              "poll_average": 10.881964484402374,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9275926833660652,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07240731663393485,
              "effective_polls": 10.602793155011053,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.007318363316297649
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Harper Polling",
              "omitted_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_poll_count": 24,
              "remaining_pollsters": 13,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 9.910886131452834,
              "poll_average": 10.813636789041198,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9274455713624207,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07255442863757933,
              "effective_polls": 10.274661073328682,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.07252905885254712
            },
            {
              "pollster": "High Point University",
              "omitted_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_poll_count": 24,
              "remaining_pollsters": 13,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 9.865132211063653,
              "poll_average": 10.764174778577463,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9274552060625425,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0725447939374575,
              "effective_polls": 10.295531514970069,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.11828297924172837
            },
            {
              "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 26,
              "remaining_pollsters": 13,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 10.144603709074794,
              "poll_average": 11.063449276390603,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.92760551934682,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07239448065318,
              "effective_polls": 10.63241548273821,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.16118851876941243
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Opinion Diagnostics",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 26,
              "remaining_pollsters": 13,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 10.062846045130444,
              "poll_average": 10.975122851235831,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9276193575900689,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07238064240993114,
              "effective_polls": 10.664535832501343,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.07943085482506262
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 25,
              "remaining_pollsters": 13,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 10.320294341328172,
              "poll_average": 11.254608057827152,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9274790532666212,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07252094673337883,
              "effective_polls": 10.347553317410036,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.3368791510227904
            },
            {
              "pollster": "SurveyUSA",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 26,
              "remaining_pollsters": 13,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 9.80936866554272,
              "poll_average": 10.70343475661036,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9275014350016572,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07249856499834284,
              "effective_polls": 10.39685631217249,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.17404652476266058
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 25,
              "remaining_pollsters": 13,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 10.143902848776573,
              "poll_average": 11.063676579289542,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9275336885328426,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07246631146715743,
              "effective_polls": 10.468732938542155,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.16048765847119206
            },
            {
              "pollster": "YouGov",
              "omitted_poll_count": 5,
              "remaining_poll_count": 22,
              "remaining_pollsters": 13,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 9.947381986082021,
              "poll_average": 10.852537138885385,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9274790532666212,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07252094673337883,
              "effective_polls": 10.347553317410037,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.03603320422335976
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 14,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            9.484305817567266,
            10.320294341328172
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 0.49910937273811484,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "OH",
          "state_name": "Ohio",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Sherrod Brown",
          "republican_name": "Jon Husted",
          "baseline_margin": 2.3429717950821645,
          "baseline_poll_average": 3.0953883976659755,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.9296268444029487,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.07037315559705126,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": 2.3429717950821645,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 34,
            "unique_pollsters": 22,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-10",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 2,
            "partisan_poll_count": 4,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 18.95227534457555,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 22,
            "hhi": 0.05276411311142207,
            "effective_pollsters": 18.95227534457555,
            "max_pollster_share": 0.06270005078389006,
            "max_pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
                "share": 0.06270005078389006,
                "poll_count": 4
              },
              {
                "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
                "share": 0.06270005078389006,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "ActiVote",
                "share": 0.06270005078389004,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
                "share": 0.06270005078389004,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research",
                "share": 0.06270005078389004,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Emerson College",
                "share": 0.06270005078389004,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Marist University",
                "share": 0.06270005078389004,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Survey 160",
                "share": 0.06270005078389004,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "YouGov",
                "share": 0.06270005078389004,
                "poll_count": 3
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Suffolk University",
                "share": 0.06083091634376663,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Research Co.",
                "share": 0.05083104063840297,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
                "share": 0.048237560053504984,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Echelon Insights",
                "share": 0.04012746687018225,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group",
                "share": 0.039634334953011344,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Verasight",
                "share": 0.03715804566886608,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov",
                "share": 0.035466899551502055,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "co/efficient",
                "share": 0.030895114295570302,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "CNN/SSRS",
                "share": 0.027095113481096222,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners",
                "share": 0.02340010984166174,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Big Data Poll",
                "share": 0.019681606333621354,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
                "share": 0.017436505056142474,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Abacus Data",
                "share": 0.004904829857661215,
                "poll_count": 1
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "Abacus Data",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 33,
              "remaining_pollsters": 21,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.3339840546548243,
              "poll_average": 3.0860005560457213,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9296024537942363,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07039754620576366,
              "effective_polls": 18.77537639003242,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.008987740427340185
            },
            {
              "pollster": "ActiVote",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 32,
              "remaining_pollsters": 21,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.5287004073447577,
              "poll_average": 3.296798063658714,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9294884813081441,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0705115186918559,
              "effective_polls": 17.99059020948865,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.18572861226259318
            },
            {
              "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 33,
              "remaining_pollsters": 21,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.067624670154985,
              "poll_average": 2.800744861858017,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9294884813081441,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0705115186918559,
              "effective_polls": 17.99059020948865,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.2753471249271793
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 32,
              "remaining_pollsters": 21,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.2094200752160478,
              "poll_average": 2.953296946055448,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9294884813081441,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0705115186918559,
              "effective_polls": 17.99059020948865,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.1335517198661167
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Big Data Poll",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 33,
              "remaining_pollsters": 21,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.3307773951570843,
              "poll_average": 3.083249762281023,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9295416359399692,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07045836406003081,
              "effective_polls": 18.348297653695482,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.012194399925080202
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 33,
              "remaining_pollsters": 21,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.2423325179374918,
              "poll_average": 2.988582765087678,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9294993155358534,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07050068446414659,
              "effective_polls": 18.06236690817648,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.10063927714467269
            },
            {
              "pollster": "CNN/SSRS",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 33,
              "remaining_pollsters": 21,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.2666244680592538,
              "poll_average": 3.0144958231972168,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.929518708796948,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07048129120305202,
              "effective_polls": 18.19228332719455,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.0763473270229107
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 32,
              "remaining_pollsters": 21,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.301938043245088,
              "poll_average": 3.052363701046005,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9295294775588321,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07047052244116792,
              "effective_polls": 18.26523166545314,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.04103375183707625
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Echelon Insights",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 33,
              "remaining_pollsters": 21,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.4618049081973066,
              "poll_average": 3.2247910955144916,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9294916369903017,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07050836300969832,
              "effective_polls": 18.01143781042171,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.11883311311514211
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Emerson College",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 33,
              "remaining_pollsters": 21,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.6893997489843584,
              "poll_average": 3.469688147690133,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9294884813081441,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0705115186918559,
              "effective_polls": 17.99059020948865,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.34642795390219394
            },
            {
              "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
              "omitted_poll_count": 4,
              "remaining_poll_count": 30,
              "remaining_pollsters": 21,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.398571367437061,
              "poll_average": 3.1567973616332776,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9294884813081441,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0705115186918559,
              "effective_polls": 17.99059020948865,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.05559957235489632
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Marist University",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 32,
              "remaining_pollsters": 21,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.199592864651223,
              "poll_average": 2.942724237772938,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9294884813081441,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0705115186918559,
              "effective_polls": 17.99059020948865,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.1433789304309414
            },
            {
              "pollster": "New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 33,
              "remaining_pollsters": 21,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.2301122543216083,
              "poll_average": 2.9755149438918056,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9294923411523767,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07050765884762333,
              "effective_polls": 18.016096340915464,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.11285954076055615
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 33,
              "remaining_pollsters": 21,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.386608354175268,
              "poll_average": 3.143220577129203,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9295496054469762,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07045039455302382,
              "effective_polls": 18.40315523307316,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.0436365590931036
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Research Co.",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 33,
              "remaining_pollsters": 21,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.4457342298660714,
              "poll_average": 3.207603163798483,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9294828773361945,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0705171226638055,
              "effective_polls": 17.953686660420935,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.1027624347839069
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Suffolk University",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 32,
              "remaining_pollsters": 21,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.3625951364543036,
              "poll_average": 3.118114991756777,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9294864827385229,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07051351726147714,
              "effective_polls": 17.977411790704764,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.01962334137213917
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Survey 160",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 33,
              "remaining_pollsters": 21,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.285245947745266,
              "poll_average": 3.0348750118992576,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9294884813081441,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0705115186918559,
              "effective_polls": 17.99059020948865,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.05772584733689845
            },
            {
              "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 32,
              "remaining_pollsters": 21,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.2312892193361646,
              "poll_average": 2.976825095741971,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9294884813081441,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0705115186918559,
              "effective_polls": 17.99059020948865,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.11168257574599982
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 32,
              "remaining_pollsters": 21,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.396334622085099,
              "poll_average": 3.154444690606315,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9294838338018009,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07051616619819912,
              "effective_polls": 17.959974537118317,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.05336282700293449
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Verasight",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 33,
              "remaining_pollsters": 21,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.3127133181678663,
              "poll_average": 3.0643367857885138,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9294962660199975,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07050373398000254,
              "effective_polls": 18.042106200883065,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.03025847691429817
            },
            {
              "pollster": "YouGov",
              "omitted_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_poll_count": 31,
              "remaining_pollsters": 21,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.372552488405942,
              "poll_average": 3.128804675812685,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9294884813081441,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0705115186918559,
              "effective_polls": 17.99059020948865,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.029580693323777663
            },
            {
              "pollster": "co/efficient",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 33,
              "remaining_pollsters": 21,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.4630699733813244,
              "poll_average": 3.225949593360156,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9295090316142417,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0704909683857583,
              "effective_polls": 18.12722330269819,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.12009817829915992
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 22,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            2.067624670154985,
            2.6893997489843584
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 0.34642795390219394,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "OK",
          "state_name": "Oklahoma",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Jim Priest",
          "republican_name": "Kevin Hern",
          "baseline_margin": -22.390980606680866,
          "baseline_poll_average": -21.0,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.857249038294748,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.14275096170525203,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": -22.390980606680866,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 1,
            "unique_pollsters": 1,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-08-06",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-06",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 89,
            "partisan_poll_count": 0,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 1.0,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 1,
            "hhi": 1.0,
            "effective_pollsters": 1.0,
            "max_pollster_share": 1.0,
            "max_pollster": "Cole Hargrave",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "Cole Hargrave",
                "share": 1.0,
                "poll_count": 1
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "Cole Hargrave",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 0,
              "remaining_pollsters": 0,
              "latest_poll_date": null,
              "available": true,
              "margin": -30.744106730103297,
              "poll_average": null,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 1.0,
              "effective_polls": 0.0,
              "mode": "historical-only",
              "reason": "No selected polls remain; the existing historical prior supplies the Democratic-candidate mean.",
              "change_pp": -8.353126123422431
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 1,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            -30.744106730103297,
            -30.744106730103297
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 8.353126123422431,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "OR",
          "state_name": "Oregon",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Democratic candidate",
          "republican_name": "Republican candidate",
          "baseline_margin": 15.184191951951544,
          "baseline_poll_average": null,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.0,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 1.0,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": 15.184191951951544,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 0,
            "unique_pollsters": 0,
            "latest_poll_date": null,
            "oldest_poll_date": null,
            "latest_poll_age_days": null,
            "partisan_poll_count": 0,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 0,
            "has_polls": false,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": false,
            "pollster_count": 0,
            "hhi": null,
            "effective_pollsters": null,
            "max_pollster_share": null,
            "max_pollster": null,
            "pollsters": [],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [],
          "available_omissions": 0,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": null,
          "max_absolute_change_pp": null,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "RI",
          "state_name": "Rhode Island",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Jack Reed",
          "republican_name": "Raymond McKay",
          "baseline_margin": 25.465927884503333,
          "baseline_poll_average": 26.432322658175426,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.9081132921473439,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.09188670785265607,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": 25.465927884503333,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 4,
            "unique_pollsters": 3,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-11",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-24",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 23,
            "partisan_poll_count": 0,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 2.905831713272672,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 3,
            "hhi": 0.34413555177073807,
            "effective_pollsters": 2.9058317132726716,
            "max_pollster_share": 0.39143845513888703,
            "max_pollster": "Emerson College",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "Emerson College",
                "share": 0.39143845513888703,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Embold Research",
                "share": 0.35784340244135476,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
                "share": 0.2507181424197583,
                "poll_count": 2
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "Embold Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_pollsters": 2,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-11",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 27.099132092284698,
              "poll_average": 28.34499321695744,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.8997691186161142,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.1002308813838858,
              "effective_polls": 1.908358608756516,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 1.6332042077813647
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Emerson College",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_pollsters": 2,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-08",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 21.174042138761255,
              "poll_average": 21.76404542217512,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.8991268927708295,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.10087310722917053,
              "effective_polls": 1.93988930955174,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -4.2918857457420785
            },
            {
              "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_pollsters": 2,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-11",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 27.32818042717272,
              "poll_average": 28.584650212869434,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9008277473639679,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.09917225263603213,
              "effective_polls": 1.9959874724225983,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 1.8622525426693848
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 3,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            21.174042138761255,
            27.32818042717272
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 4.2918857457420785,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "SC",
          "state_name": "South Carolina",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Annie Andrews",
          "republican_name": "Darline Graham",
          "baseline_margin": -2.5102754202792172,
          "baseline_poll_average": -1.3064922608148783,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.9247835862724947,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.07521641372750532,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": -2.5102754202792172,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 12,
            "unique_pollsters": 8,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-24",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 2,
            "partisan_poll_count": 6,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 6.579158748979809,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 8,
            "hhi": 0.15199511642047916,
            "effective_pollsters": 6.5791587489798085,
            "max_pollster_share": 0.19169530799017742,
            "max_pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
                "share": 0.19169530799017742,
                "poll_count": 3
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Targoz Market Research",
                "share": 0.173954040297647,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "East Carolina University Center for Survey Research",
                "share": 0.17385609740106514,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
                "share": 0.15979657667015604,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
                "share": 0.1295185869302669,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Impact Research",
                "share": 0.08199850019593968,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Patinkin Research Strategies",
                "share": 0.07418516310386411,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Abacus Data",
                "share": 0.014995727410883775,
                "poll_count": 1
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "Abacus Data",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 11,
              "remaining_pollsters": 7,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -2.3491243745721837,
              "poll_average": -1.1284700334869098,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9245684752188463,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07543152478115367,
              "effective_polls": 6.39277758103662,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.16115104570703354
            },
            {
              "pollster": "East Carolina University Center for Survey Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 11,
              "remaining_pollsters": 7,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -2.0267411051707946,
              "poll_average": -0.7607070378098721,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.923502689546037,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07649731045396302,
              "effective_polls": 5.6049797038730595,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.4835343151084226
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Impact Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 10,
              "remaining_pollsters": 7,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -2.7064228316649253,
              "poll_average": -1.501689311252888,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9237947622320234,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07620523776797661,
              "effective_polls": 5.801052181246454,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.19614741138570801
            },
            {
              "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 10,
              "remaining_pollsters": 7,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -2.530785903759977,
              "poll_average": -1.3064706786900133,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9235007770342645,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07649922296573552,
              "effective_polls": 5.6037390827455456,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.020510483480759678
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Patinkin Research Strategies",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 11,
              "remaining_pollsters": 7,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -2.991821500668803,
              "poll_average": -1.811828898700597,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9238661644387017,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07613383556129827,
              "effective_polls": 5.85107034026868,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.4815460803895859
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Targoz Market Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 11,
              "remaining_pollsters": 7,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -2.590375077478806,
              "poll_average": -1.3710353609444634,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9235030581606344,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07649694183936562,
              "effective_polls": 5.605218881847257,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.08009965719958867
            },
            {
              "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 11,
              "remaining_pollsters": 7,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -2.636099661779549,
              "poll_average": -1.4199379081923942,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9234676331473272,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07653236685267284,
              "effective_polls": 5.582325168123979,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.1258242415003319
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
              "omitted_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_poll_count": 9,
              "remaining_pollsters": 7,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-29",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -2.3532899888429992,
              "poll_average": -1.0969131793047042,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9225120786163057,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.07748792138369431,
              "effective_polls": 5.669133795040271,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.15698543143621801
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 8,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            -2.991821500668803,
            -2.0267411051707946
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 0.4835343151084226,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "SD",
          "state_name": "South Dakota",
          "opposition_party": "I",
          "opposition_name": "Brian Bengs",
          "republican_name": "Mike Rounds",
          "baseline_margin": -11.298056340325573,
          "baseline_poll_average": -11.298056340325573,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 1.0,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.0,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": -11.298056340325573,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 10,
            "unique_pollsters": 9,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-26",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-17",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 8,
            "partisan_poll_count": 7,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 5.543235285458672,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 9,
            "hhi": 0.18040006395240996,
            "effective_pollsters": 5.543235285458673,
            "max_pollster_share": 0.2574531827536416,
            "max_pollster": "Emerson College",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "Emerson College",
                "share": 0.2574531827536416,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
                "share": 0.21799857456984945,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners",
                "share": 0.17255728778698723,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.",
                "share": 0.16124348005252503,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Public Opinion Strategies",
                "share": 0.08612350388205384,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Zenith Research",
                "share": 0.046000358702912976,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Public Policy Polling",
                "share": 0.028482350613422632,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Lake Research Partners",
                "share": 0.01825525444897964,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Impact Research",
                "share": 0.011886007189627689,
                "poll_count": 1
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 8,
              "remaining_pollsters": 8,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-21",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -13.999780450784263,
              "poll_average": -13.999780450784263,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 4.545498932148689,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -2.7017241104586898
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Emerson College",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 9,
              "remaining_pollsters": 8,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-26",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -12.44154666577927,
              "poll_average": -12.44154666577927,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 4.831631728263608,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -1.1434903254536977
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Impact Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 9,
              "remaining_pollsters": 8,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-26",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -11.43396047675824,
              "poll_average": -11.43396047675824,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 5.416486376053908,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.13590413643266785
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Lake Research Partners",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 9,
              "remaining_pollsters": 8,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-26",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -11.694087426331667,
              "poll_average": -11.694087426331667,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 5.352584117849454,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.3960310860060936
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 9,
              "remaining_pollsters": 8,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-26",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -9.817426182085901,
              "poll_average": -9.817426182085901,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 4.556410280175012,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 1.4806301582396717
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Public Opinion Strategies",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 9,
              "remaining_pollsters": 8,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-26",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -10.760706524463972,
              "poll_average": -10.760706524463972,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 4.828053546574967,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.5373498158616012
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Public Policy Polling",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 9,
              "remaining_pollsters": 8,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-26",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -11.541333598586727,
              "poll_average": -11.541333598586727,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 5.2555974524351825,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.24327725826115376
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 9,
              "remaining_pollsters": 8,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-26",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -8.28679799242991,
              "poll_average": -8.28679799242991,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 4.602208636973228,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 3.0112583478956623
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Zenith Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 9,
              "remaining_pollsters": 8,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-10-26",
              "available": true,
              "margin": -11.553520264559191,
              "poll_average": -11.553520264559191,
              "poll_weight_share": 1.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0,
              "effective_polls": 5.104861667851667,
              "mode": "polls-only-independent",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.2554639242336183
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 9,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            -13.999780450784263,
            -8.28679799242991
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 3.0112583478956623,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "TN",
          "state_name": "Tennessee",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Marquita Bradshaw",
          "republican_name": "Bill Hagerty",
          "baseline_margin": -21.17618240311343,
          "baseline_poll_average": -20.444535739339706,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.8856987884870811,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.11430121151291894,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": -21.17618240311343,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 2,
            "unique_pollsters": 1,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-26",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 1,
            "partisan_poll_count": 0,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 1.0,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 1,
            "hhi": 1.0,
            "effective_pollsters": 1.0,
            "max_pollster_share": 1.0,
            "max_pollster": "Targoz Market Research",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "Targoz Market Research",
                "share": 1.0,
                "poll_count": 2
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "Targoz Market Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 0,
              "remaining_pollsters": 0,
              "latest_poll_date": null,
              "available": true,
              "margin": -26.84557606156788,
              "poll_average": null,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.0,
              "prior_weight_share": 1.0,
              "effective_polls": 0.0,
              "mode": "historical-only",
              "reason": "No selected polls remain; the existing historical prior supplies the Democratic-candidate mean.",
              "change_pp": -5.6693936584544495
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 1,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            -26.84557606156788,
            -26.84557606156788
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 5.6693936584544495,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "TX",
          "state_name": "Texas",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "James Talarico",
          "republican_name": "Ken Paxton",
          "baseline_margin": 2.1694300086357616,
          "baseline_poll_average": 3.111492776270913,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.9306545928220696,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 0.06934540717793036,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": 2.1694300086357616,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 53,
            "unique_pollsters": 31,
            "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
            "oldest_poll_date": "2026-08-10",
            "latest_poll_age_days": 1,
            "partisan_poll_count": 7,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 25.41945507505443,
            "has_polls": true,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": true,
            "pollster_count": 31,
            "hhi": 0.039339946393318136,
            "effective_pollsters": 25.419455075054433,
            "max_pollster_share": 0.04491209062663874,
            "max_pollster": "ActiVote",
            "pollsters": [
              {
                "pollster": "ActiVote",
                "share": 0.04491209062663874,
                "poll_count": 3
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center",
                "share": 0.044912090626638736,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
                "share": 0.044912090626638736,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
                "share": 0.04491209062663873,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research",
                "share": 0.04491209062663873,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Kreate Strategies",
                "share": 0.04491209062663873,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
                "share": 0.04491209062663873,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Slingshot Strategies",
                "share": 0.04491209062663873,
                "poll_count": 3
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
                "share": 0.04491209062663873,
                "poll_count": 3
              },
              {
                "pollster": "YouGov",
                "share": 0.04491209062663873,
                "poll_count": 7
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Emerson College",
                "share": 0.04491209062663872,
                "poll_count": 4
              },
              {
                "pollster": "YouGov Blue",
                "share": 0.044525576665326194,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "CNN/SSRS",
                "share": 0.044212509391353245,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Marist University",
                "share": 0.04416101925584221,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
                "share": 0.04316207049565,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs",
                "share": 0.04237477549739369,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Research Co.",
                "share": 0.03763215957464629,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Data for Progress",
                "share": 0.037570722749162636,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "A2 Insights",
                "share": 0.036556027400735,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Verasight",
                "share": 0.02831641174207439,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group",
                "share": 0.02801761020680679,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "ReconMR/Siena Research Institute",
                "share": 0.02720756005374326,
                "poll_count": 2
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Cor Strategies",
                "share": 0.018380303364015246,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov",
                "share": 0.016290922895003217,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Big Data Poll",
                "share": 0.013819566282619745,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Guidant Polling and Strategy",
                "share": 0.007902258333516625,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.",
                "share": 0.007711707050928638,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Pulse Decision Science",
                "share": 0.007645686059782586,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Stratus Intelligence",
                "share": 0.007200708607323101,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research",
                "share": 0.0068566057272264995,
                "poll_count": 1
              },
              {
                "pollster": "Overton Insights",
                "share": 0.006422801753824626,
                "poll_count": 1
              }
            ],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [
            {
              "pollster": "A2 Insights",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 52,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.1722964294038167,
              "poll_average": 3.115723155099634,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9305758102463897,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06942418975361031,
              "effective_polls": 24.424638951578377,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.0028664207680551
            },
            {
              "pollster": "ActiVote",
              "omitted_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_poll_count": 50,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.1568214708647107,
              "poll_average": 3.099074536552194,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9305771248859249,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06942287511407508,
              "effective_polls": 24.440601459809923,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.012608537771050976
            },
            {
              "pollster": "AtlasIntel",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 52,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.046353934010252,
              "poll_average": 2.9803659052090365,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9305771248859249,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06942287511407508,
              "effective_polls": 24.440601459809923,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.12307607462550951
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 51,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.226830066547143,
              "poll_average": 3.174305910513825,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9305771248859249,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06942287511407508,
              "effective_polls": 24.440601459809923,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.057400057911381364
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 51,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.2796673025049627,
              "poll_average": 3.2310849077025825,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9305771248859249,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06942287511407508,
              "effective_polls": 24.440601459809923,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.11023729386920111
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Big Data Poll",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 52,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.1846184220625497,
              "poll_average": 3.12846969464221,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9306096559629201,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06939034403707989,
              "effective_polls": 24.84233806627375,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.015188413426788117
            },
            {
              "pollster": "CNN/SSRS",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 52,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.0440324063949813,
              "poll_average": 2.9778771409848837,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9305767129932343,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.0694232870067657,
              "effective_polls": 24.435597971056463,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.12539760224078034
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Cor Strategies",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 52,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.1531887089279143,
              "poll_average": 3.094855954119497,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9305987157503433,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06940128424965675,
              "effective_polls": 24.705771252688955,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.01624129970784738
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Data for Progress",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 52,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.1360792734360974,
              "poll_average": 3.076807777224844,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9305755558869159,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06942444411308413,
              "effective_polls": 24.42155289074736,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.03335073519966425
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Emerson College",
              "omitted_poll_count": 4,
              "remaining_poll_count": 49,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.2471939698924253,
              "poll_average": 3.1961890009108496,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9305771248859249,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06942287511407508,
              "effective_polls": 24.440601459809923,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.07776396125666363
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 52,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.163389068149196,
              "poll_average": 3.105358572736926,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9306301346757982,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06936986532420175,
              "effective_polls": 25.102065879666213,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.00604094048656556
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Guidant Polling and Strategy",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 52,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.169878548174351,
              "poll_average": 3.1123808386899783,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9306267744227145,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06937322557728554,
              "effective_polls": 25.059077367813195,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.00044853953858936535
            },
            {
              "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 51,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.296664060012495,
              "poll_average": 3.249363302374776,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9305761995414923,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06942380045850771,
              "effective_polls": 24.429363649891492,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.12723405137673316
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Kreate Strategies",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 52,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.173256468214237,
              "poll_average": 3.1167356168753764,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9305771248859249,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06942287511407508,
              "effective_polls": 24.440601459809923,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.003826459578475383
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Marist University",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 51,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.1597631121624166,
              "poll_average": 3.102242048960402,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9305766848912174,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06942331510878264,
              "effective_polls": 24.435256674776014,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.009666896473345066
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 52,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.169866683216781,
              "poll_average": 3.1123592579527037,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9306273793607326,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06937262063926741,
              "effective_polls": 25.06680563478842,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.00043667458101914747
            },
            {
              "pollster": "New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 52,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.1177904973795045,
              "poll_average": 3.05705613233291,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9305823273226353,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06941767267736465,
              "effective_polls": 24.503974799450123,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.0516395112562571
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Overton Insights",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 52,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.1878355086981767,
              "poll_average": 3.1316064637586303,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9306315578231449,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06936844217685512,
              "effective_polls": 25.120316939786147,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.018405500062415037
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Pulse Decision Science",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 52,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.2128832252445187,
              "poll_average": 3.158579340482505,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9306275897271181,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06937241027288188,
              "effective_polls": 25.06949424409318,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.04345321660875712
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 51,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.3411989401909405,
              "poll_average": 3.297206926007643,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9305771248859249,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06942287511407508,
              "effective_polls": 24.440601459809923,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.17176893155517892
            },
            {
              "pollster": "ReconMR/Siena Research Institute",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 51,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.130222343406077,
              "poll_average": 3.07040055736037,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9305833432663854,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06941665673361463,
              "effective_polls": 24.516388782840764,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.03920766522968444
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Research Co.",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 52,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-01",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.1674044119492324,
              "poll_average": 3.1158525582293297,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9302069622524055,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06979303774759449,
              "effective_polls": 24.42140996395777,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.0020255966865292407
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Slingshot Strategies",
              "omitted_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_poll_count": 50,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.108600060111154,
              "poll_average": 3.0472557141633803,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9305771248859249,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06942287511407508,
              "effective_polls": 24.440601459809923,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.06082994852460777
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Stratus Intelligence",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 52,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.190084499628914,
              "poll_average": 3.134060230750346,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9306290179225182,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06937098207748182,
              "effective_polls": 25.087762671203553,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.020654490993152308
            },
            {
              "pollster": "The New York Times/Siena University",
              "omitted_poll_count": 2,
              "remaining_poll_count": 51,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.0059070868420745,
              "poll_average": 2.9369016440677203,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9305771248859249,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06942287511407508,
              "effective_polls": 24.440601459809923,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.1635229217936871
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
              "omitted_poll_count": 3,
              "remaining_poll_count": 50,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.271843704971096,
              "poll_average": 3.2226776544780567,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9305771248859249,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06942287511407508,
              "effective_polls": 24.440601459809923,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.10241369633533415
            },
            {
              "pollster": "University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 52,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.2141297979981323,
              "poll_average": 3.1606761683290303,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9305758969313458,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06942410306865421,
              "effective_polls": 24.425690849795934,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.04469978936237062
            },
            {
              "pollster": "University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 52,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.2166882711634464,
              "poll_average": 3.1630213125895614,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9306034799256757,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06939652007432429,
              "effective_polls": 24.76505790310379,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.047258262527684725
            },
            {
              "pollster": "Verasight",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 52,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.1877381374864995,
              "poll_average": 3.13222681217299,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9305819696751104,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06941803032488958,
              "effective_polls": 24.499607630523492,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": 0.018308128850737848
            },
            {
              "pollster": "YouGov",
              "omitted_poll_count": 7,
              "remaining_poll_count": 46,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 2.1281391589094363,
              "poll_average": 3.068252467979651,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9305771248859249,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06942287511407508,
              "effective_polls": 24.440601459809923,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.04129084972632535
            },
            {
              "pollster": "YouGov Blue",
              "omitted_poll_count": 1,
              "remaining_poll_count": 52,
              "remaining_pollsters": 30,
              "latest_poll_date": "2026-11-02",
              "available": true,
              "margin": 1.956382639956121,
              "poll_average": 2.8836859424579377,
              "poll_weight_share": 0.9305768903856975,
              "prior_weight_share": 0.06942310961430254,
              "effective_polls": 24.43775260496798,
              "mode": "historical-and-polls",
              "reason": null,
              "change_pp": -0.21304736867964058
            }
          ],
          "available_omissions": 31,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": [
            1.956382639956121,
            2.3411989401909405
          ],
          "max_absolute_change_pp": 0.21304736867964058,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "VA",
          "state_name": "Virginia",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Democratic candidate",
          "republican_name": "Republican candidate",
          "baseline_margin": 7.60805047794243,
          "baseline_poll_average": null,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.0,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 1.0,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": 7.60805047794243,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 0,
            "unique_pollsters": 0,
            "latest_poll_date": null,
            "oldest_poll_date": null,
            "latest_poll_age_days": null,
            "partisan_poll_count": 0,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 0,
            "has_polls": false,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": false,
            "pollster_count": 0,
            "hhi": null,
            "effective_pollsters": null,
            "max_pollster_share": null,
            "max_pollster": null,
            "pollsters": [],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [],
          "available_omissions": 0,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": null,
          "max_absolute_change_pp": null,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "WV",
          "state_name": "West Virginia",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Democratic candidate",
          "republican_name": "Republican candidate",
          "baseline_margin": -38.2385430092645,
          "baseline_poll_average": null,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.0,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 1.0,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": -38.2385430092645,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 0,
            "unique_pollsters": 0,
            "latest_poll_date": null,
            "oldest_poll_date": null,
            "latest_poll_age_days": null,
            "partisan_poll_count": 0,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 0,
            "has_polls": false,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": false,
            "pollster_count": 0,
            "hhi": null,
            "effective_pollsters": null,
            "max_pollster_share": null,
            "max_pollster": null,
            "pollsters": [],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [],
          "available_omissions": 0,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": null,
          "max_absolute_change_pp": null,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        },
        {
          "state": "WY",
          "state_name": "Wyoming",
          "opposition_party": "D",
          "opposition_name": "Democratic candidate",
          "republican_name": "Republican candidate",
          "baseline_margin": -42.72334472142096,
          "baseline_poll_average": null,
          "baseline_poll_weight_share": 0.0,
          "baseline_prior_weight_share": 1.0,
          "recomputed_baseline_margin": -42.72334472142096,
          "coverage": {
            "poll_count": 0,
            "unique_pollsters": 0,
            "latest_poll_date": null,
            "oldest_poll_date": null,
            "latest_poll_age_days": null,
            "partisan_poll_count": 0,
            "final_rcv_poll_count": 0,
            "effective_polls": 0,
            "has_polls": false,
            "scope": "Qualifying selected-matchup polls in the existing model's 90-day window; not every poll published"
          },
          "concentration": {
            "available": false,
            "pollster_count": 0,
            "hhi": null,
            "effective_pollsters": null,
            "max_pollster_share": null,
            "max_pollster": null,
            "pollsters": [],
            "scope": "Shares of the selected polling average after the existing pollster cap; no accuracy or quality grade is inferred."
          },
          "leave_one_out": [],
          "available_omissions": 0,
          "unavailable_omissions": 0,
          "margin_range": null,
          "max_absolute_change_pp": null,
          "independent_all_removed_unavailable": false,
          "scope": "Omit each pollster's selected-matchup polls in turn, recompute the same polling weights and historical blend, and hold the chosen candidates and all other inputs fixed. This is evidence sensitivity, not an alternative forecast or a pollster quality rating."
        }
      ]
    }
  }
}