{
  "scope": "Historical results-only baseline; NOT full polling or chamber validation",
  "method": "Walk-forward by election year, rolling 24-year training window; no future results in training",
  "races": 399,
  "years": [
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    2002,
    2004,
    2006,
    2008,
    2010,
    2012,
    2014,
    2016,
    2018,
    2020,
    2022,
    2024
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  "accuracy": 0.8195488721804511,
  "brier": 0.1499528378719298,
  "interval80_coverage": 0.8872180451127819,
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