Civics & public records
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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. HOUSE
Arkansas House districts
Explore all 4 congressional districts in Arkansas.
Snapshot: · Model house-0.1.0
4 of 4 districts have comparable two-party baselines. District projections are experimental and uncalibrated. Unmodeled districts are not toss-ups. Full House-control odds are withheld.
| District | Margin | Win probability | Polls | Data basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR-01 | R +39.6 | R >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| AR-02 | R +5.7 | R 72% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| AR-03 | R +22.6 | R 98% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| AR-04 | R +35.0 | R >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
AR-01: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +50.5. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
AR-02: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +17.9. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Chris Jones / French Hill. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendrix College ↗ | 2026-08-12 | 1112 | lv | D +4.3 |
AR-03: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +33.5. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
AR-04: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +45.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
Sources: House Clerk official 2024 results, Census congressional district data, and NYT polling (CC BY 4.0; independently modified).
Explore the interactive House map ↗ · House methodology and limitations
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN ARKANSAS
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Arkansas bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news