THE ELECTION LAB / 2026EXPERIMENTAL · SOURCE-LINKED · REPRODUCIBLE

LOOK PAST THE HEADLINE NUMBER

One election.
Many possibilities.

Explore the races, inspect the polls, and test what a different national environment would mean for the Senate. Every number has a trail back to its evidence.

Build a Senate scenario Explore 948 poll questions ↓

01 / THE RANGE OF OUTCOMES

A probability is a range of futures.

Senate snapshot JSON ↗

Where the Senate could land

30,000 simulations

Democratic seats, including 34 seats not contested in this model. Bars show possible outcomes, rather than one predicted seat count.

47–5580% simulated seat interval

51.4Expected Democratic seats

Read the seat distribution as a table

Published baseline Democratic Senate seat distribution
Seats	Share of simulations
39	0.01%
40	0.04%
41	0.08%
42	0.32%
43	0.67%
44	1.30%
45	2.16%
46	3.36%
47	4.70%
48	6.33%
49	8.19%
50	9.83%
51	10.84%
52	11.89%
53	12.12%
54	10.60%
55	8.19%
56	5.53%
57	2.66%
58	0.92%
59	0.22%
60	0.03%

THE CONTROL PATHWAYS

Different routes through the same election.

Inspect the joint simulation data ↗

What do the most frequent combinations of outcomes look like when a party controls the Senate? Explore patterns across 6 selected races, counted directly from the model’s 30,000 correlated simulated elections.

Selected races: Ohio, Michigan, Maine, Texas, Kansas, Minnesota. These are the highest-leverage races under the published baseline; they are not the entire chamber.

01
OHDOhio: Sherrod BrownMIDMichigan: Abdul El-SayedMEDMaine: Troy JacksonTXDTexas: James TalaricoKSDKansas: Adam HamiltonMNDMinnesota: Peggy Flanagan
37.6%of all simulations59.7% of democratic control outcomes (11,281 / 18,898)
11,281 / 30,000 total draws
02
OHDOhio: Sherrod BrownMIDMichigan: Abdul El-SayedMEDMaine: Troy JacksonTXRTexas: Ken PaxtonKSDKansas: Adam HamiltonMNDMinnesota: Peggy Flanagan
5.0%of all simulations7.9% of democratic control outcomes (1,495 / 18,898)
1,495 / 30,000 total draws
03
OHDOhio: Sherrod BrownMIDMichigan: Abdul El-SayedMEDMaine: Troy JacksonTXDTexas: James TalaricoKSRKansas: Roger MarshallMNDMinnesota: Peggy Flanagan
4.7%of all simulations7.5% of democratic control outcomes (1,423 / 18,898)
1,423 / 30,000 total draws
04
OHROhio: Jon HustedMIDMichigan: Abdul El-SayedMEDMaine: Troy JacksonTXDTexas: James TalaricoKSDKansas: Adam HamiltonMNDMinnesota: Peggy Flanagan
4.7%of all simulations7.5% of democratic control outcomes (1,417 / 18,898)
1,417 / 30,000 total draws
05
OHDOhio: Sherrod BrownMIDMichigan: Abdul El-SayedMERMaine: Susan CollinsTXDTexas: James TalaricoKSDKansas: Adam HamiltonMNDMinnesota: Peggy Flanagan
2.4%of all simulations3.8% of democratic control outcomes (717 / 18,898)
717 / 30,000 total draws
06
OHDOhio: Sherrod BrownMIRMichigan: Mike RogersMEDMaine: Troy JacksonTXDTexas: James TalaricoKSDKansas: Adam HamiltonMNDMinnesota: Peggy Flanagan
1.4%of all simulations2.3% of democratic control outcomes (426 / 18,898)
426 / 30,000 total draws

These 6 patterns cover 88.7% of simulated democratic control outcomes. Other patterns account for the remainder. Outcomes in unlisted Senate races vary.

Each pattern fixes only the selected races. Other Senate races vary, and the same selected-race pattern can end in different control outcomes. Frequencies come from joint draws, not multiplying individual win probabilities. Rare or unobserved paths have limited simulation evidence.

Patterns ending in Republican control

01
OHROhio: Jon HustedMIRMichigan: Mike RogersMERMaine: Susan CollinsTXRTexas: Ken PaxtonKSRKansas: Roger MarshallMNRMinnesota: Michele Tafoya
1.6%of all simulations5.0% of republican control outcomes (494 / 9,955)
494 / 30,000 total draws
02
OHROhio: Jon HustedMIDMichigan: Abdul El-SayedMEDMaine: Troy JacksonTXRTexas: Ken PaxtonKSRKansas: Roger MarshallMNDMinnesota: Peggy Flanagan
1.6%of all simulations4.8% of republican control outcomes (477 / 9,955)
477 / 30,000 total draws
03
OHROhio: Jon HustedMIRMichigan: Mike RogersMERMaine: Susan CollinsTXRTexas: Ken PaxtonKSRKansas: Roger MarshallMNDMinnesota: Peggy Flanagan
1.5%of all simulations4.4% of republican control outcomes (436 / 9,955)
436 / 30,000 total draws
04
OHROhio: Jon HustedMIDMichigan: Abdul El-SayedMERMaine: Susan CollinsTXRTexas: Ken PaxtonKSRKansas: Roger MarshallMNDMinnesota: Peggy Flanagan
1.4%of all simulations4.3% of republican control outcomes (428 / 9,955)
428 / 30,000 total draws
05
OHDOhio: Sherrod BrownMIDMichigan: Abdul El-SayedMEDMaine: Troy JacksonTXRTexas: Ken PaxtonKSRKansas: Roger MarshallMNDMinnesota: Peggy Flanagan
1.2%of all simulations3.7% of republican control outcomes (369 / 9,955)
369 / 30,000 total draws
06
OHROhio: Jon HustedMIDMichigan: Abdul El-SayedMEDMaine: Troy JacksonTXRTexas: Ken PaxtonKSDKansas: Adam HamiltonMNDMinnesota: Peggy Flanagan
1.2%of all simulations3.6% of republican control outcomes (359 / 9,955)
359 / 30,000 total draws

These 6 patterns cover 25.7% of simulated republican control outcomes. Other patterns account for the remainder. Outcomes in unlisted Senate races vary.

Patterns ending in unresolved control

01
OHDOhio: Sherrod BrownMIDMichigan: Abdul El-SayedMEDMaine: Troy JacksonTXRTexas: Ken PaxtonKSDKansas: Adam HamiltonMNDMinnesota: Peggy Flanagan
0.4%of all simulations9.3% of unresolved control outcomes (107 / 1,147)
107 / 30,000 total draws
02
OHDOhio: Sherrod BrownMIDMichigan: Abdul El-SayedMEDMaine: Troy JacksonTXDTexas: James TalaricoKSRKansas: Roger MarshallMNDMinnesota: Peggy Flanagan
0.3%of all simulations8.4% of unresolved control outcomes (96 / 1,147)
96 / 30,000 total drawsLimited simulation sample
03
OHROhio: Jon HustedMIDMichigan: Abdul El-SayedMEDMaine: Troy JacksonTXDTexas: James TalaricoKSDKansas: Adam HamiltonMNDMinnesota: Peggy Flanagan
0.3%of all simulations7.8% of unresolved control outcomes (90 / 1,147)
90 / 30,000 total drawsLimited simulation sample
04
OHDOhio: Sherrod BrownMIDMichigan: Abdul El-SayedMEDMaine: Troy JacksonTXDTexas: James TalaricoKSDKansas: Adam HamiltonMNDMinnesota: Peggy Flanagan
0.3%of all simulations7.3% of unresolved control outcomes (84 / 1,147)
84 / 30,000 total drawsLimited simulation sample
05
OHDOhio: Sherrod BrownMIDMichigan: Abdul El-SayedMEDMaine: Troy JacksonTXRTexas: Ken PaxtonKSRKansas: Roger MarshallMNDMinnesota: Peggy Flanagan
0.2%of all simulations6.5% of unresolved control outcomes (74 / 1,147)
74 / 30,000 total drawsLimited simulation sample
06
OHROhio: Jon HustedMIDMichigan: Abdul El-SayedMEDMaine: Troy JacksonTXDTexas: James TalaricoKSRKansas: Roger MarshallMNDMinnesota: Peggy Flanagan
0.2%of all simulations6.2% of unresolved control outcomes (71 / 1,147)
71 / 30,000 total drawsLimited simulation sample

These 6 patterns cover 45.5% of simulated unresolved control outcomes. Other patterns account for the remainder. Outcomes in unlisted Senate races vary.

COMPARE THE EVIDENCE

Same headline margin. Different foundations.

Compare up to three Senate races. See how current polling, its freshness and its concentration support each projection, and how far the projected margin moves when one pollster is removed at a time.

Race 1

Race 2

Race 3

Showing 3 selected Senate races from the published baseline. Interactive controls are loading.

OHRace evidence ↗

Ohio

Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R)

D +2.3Published projected margin

80% model interval: -3.4 to +8.1 points.
Positive favors D.

Polling coverage: 34 observationsLatest field end 2026-11-01
Largest pollster’s share of polling weight: 6.3%InsiderAdvantage
Projected margin after one-pollster omissions: D +2.1 to D +2.7This sensitivity range is not a confidence interval.

See every pollster omission

Published-model sensitivity after removing one pollster
Omit pollster	Recomputed margin	Change
Emerson College33 polls / 21 pollsters remain	D +2.7	+0.3 pts
AtlasIntel33 polls / 21 pollsters remain	D +2.1	-0.3 pts
ActiVote32 polls / 21 pollsters remain	D +2.5	+0.2 pts
Marist University32 polls / 21 pollsters remain	D +2.2	-0.1 pts
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research32 polls / 21 pollsters remain	D +2.2	-0.1 pts
co/efficient33 polls / 21 pollsters remain	D +2.5	+0.1 pts
Echelon Insights33 polls / 21 pollsters remain	D +2.5	+0.1 pts
New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group33 polls / 21 pollsters remain	D +2.2	-0.1 pts
The New York Times/Siena University32 polls / 21 pollsters remain	D +2.2	-0.1 pts
Research Co.33 polls / 21 pollsters remain	D +2.4	+0.1 pts
Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov33 polls / 21 pollsters remain	D +2.2	-0.1 pts
CNN/SSRS33 polls / 21 pollsters remain	D +2.3	-0.1 pts
Survey 16033 polls / 21 pollsters remain	D +2.3	-0.1 pts
InsiderAdvantage30 polls / 21 pollsters remain	D +2.4	+0.1 pts
Trafalgar Group32 polls / 21 pollsters remain	D +2.4	+0.1 pts
Quantus Insights33 polls / 21 pollsters remain	D +2.4	+0.0 pts
Concord Public Opinion Partners32 polls / 21 pollsters remain	D +2.3	-0.0 pts
Verasight33 polls / 21 pollsters remain	D +2.3	-0.0 pts
YouGov31 polls / 21 pollsters remain	D +2.4	+0.0 pts
Suffolk University32 polls / 21 pollsters remain	D +2.4	+0.0 pts
Big Data Poll33 polls / 21 pollsters remain	D +2.3	-0.0 pts
Abacus Data33 polls / 21 pollsters remain	D +2.3	-0.0 pts

MIRace evidence ↗

Michigan

Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)

D +4.2Published projected margin

80% model interval: -1.5 to +9.8 points.
Positive favors D.

Polling coverage: 49 observationsLatest field end 2026-11-02
Largest pollster’s share of polling weight: 5.4%AtlasIntel
Projected margin after one-pollster omissions: D +3.9 to D +4.3This sensitivity range is not a confidence interval.

See every pollster omission

Published-model sensitivity after removing one pollster
Omit pollster	Recomputed margin	Change
The New York Times/Siena University47 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +3.9	-0.3 pts
Michigan State University Office for Survey Research/Verasight48 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +3.9	-0.3 pts
Trafalgar Group46 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.3	+0.2 pts
InsiderAdvantage46 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.3	+0.1 pts
AtlasIntel48 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.0	-0.1 pts
John Zogby Strategies48 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.3	+0.1 pts
Concord Public Opinion Partners48 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.0	-0.1 pts
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research47 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.3	+0.1 pts
Research Co.48 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.3	+0.1 pts
CNN/SSRS47 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.1	-0.1 pts
The Tyson Group47 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.3	+0.1 pts
Mitchell Research & Communications47 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.1	-0.1 pts
Quantus Insights48 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.2	+0.1 pts
YouGov47 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.2	+0.1 pts
Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov47 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.2	+0.1 pts
co/efficient48 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.2	+0.1 pts
Emerson College47 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.1	-0.0 pts
Marist University47 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.2	+0.0 pts
Torchlight Strategies48 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.2	+0.0 pts
Suffolk University48 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.1	-0.0 pts
Glengariff Group, Inc.47 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.1	-0.0 pts
Z to A Research48 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.1	-0.0 pts
Data for Progress48 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.2	+0.0 pts
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government48 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.2	+0.0 pts
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research48 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.2	+0.0 pts
Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc.48 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.1	-0.0 pts
Upswing Research48 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.2	-0.0 pts
Cygnal/Beacon Research48 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.2	-0.0 pts
Guidant Polling and Strategy48 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.2	-0.0 pts
TIPP Insights48 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.2	+0.0 pts
Big Data Poll48 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.2	-0.0 pts
Abacus Data48 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.2	-0.0 pts
EPIC-MRA48 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.2	+0.0 pts
GBAO47 polls / 33 pollsters remain	D +4.2	+0.0 pts

MERace evidence ↗

Maine

Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)

D +3.4Published projected margin

80% model interval: -2.3 to +9.2 points.
Positive favors D.

Polling coverage: 30 observationsLatest field end 2026-11-01
Largest pollster’s share of polling weight: 6.9%AtlasIntel
Projected margin after one-pollster omissions: D +3.1 to D +3.7This sensitivity range is not a confidence interval.

See every pollster omission

Published-model sensitivity after removing one pollster
Omit pollster	Recomputed margin	Change
AtlasIntel29 polls / 20 pollsters remain	D +3.1	-0.4 pts
University of New Hampshire28 polls / 20 pollsters remain	D +3.1	-0.3 pts
Emerson College29 polls / 20 pollsters remain	D +3.7	+0.3 pts
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research28 polls / 20 pollsters remain	D +3.7	+0.2 pts
Trafalgar Group28 polls / 20 pollsters remain	D +3.6	+0.2 pts
co/efficient29 polls / 20 pollsters remain	D +3.6	+0.2 pts
Echelon Insights29 polls / 20 pollsters remain	D +3.3	-0.1 pts
InsiderAdvantage28 polls / 20 pollsters remain	D +3.5	+0.1 pts
Data for Progress29 polls / 20 pollsters remain	D +3.4	-0.1 pts
The New York Times/Siena University28 polls / 20 pollsters remain	D +3.4	-0.1 pts
Marist University28 polls / 20 pollsters remain	D +3.5	+0.0 pts
Quantus Insights29 polls / 20 pollsters remain	D +3.5	+0.0 pts
Suffolk University29 polls / 20 pollsters remain	D +3.5	+0.0 pts
CNN/SSRS28 polls / 20 pollsters remain	D +3.4	-0.0 pts
YouGov27 polls / 20 pollsters remain	D +3.4	-0.0 pts
Survey 16029 polls / 20 pollsters remain	D +3.5	+0.0 pts
Abacus Data29 polls / 20 pollsters remain	D +3.4	-0.0 pts
University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov29 polls / 20 pollsters remain	D +3.4	-0.0 pts
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government29 polls / 20 pollsters remain	D +3.4	-0.0 pts
Maine People's Resource Center29 polls / 20 pollsters remain	D +3.5	+0.0 pts
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research29 polls / 20 pollsters remain	D +3.5	+0.0 pts

READING THE STRESS TEST

Dependence on any one pollster

Several surveys can come from one organization. The largest-pollster share shows how concentrated the model’s polling weight is. It is a measure of dependence, not a pollster quality grade.

For the omission test, the model removes all selected observations from one pollster, recalculates its existing weights and historical-prior blend, and leaves every other modeling assumption unchanged. The resulting range describes sensitivity to that omission. It is not a validated alternative forecast, a sampling margin of error or a prediction of polling bias.

Races without polls rely on historical priors. Independent matchups with no polls remaining cannot use a comparable Democratic prior and are marked unavailable. Different organizations can also share correlated errors; this test does not detect every form of dependence.

02 / THE WHAT-IF DESK

What if the polls miss together?

SENATE SCENARIOS

Change the national environment.

Move every modeled race’s opposition margin by the same amount. This is a stress test of the current model; a shift is an assumption you choose.

National margin shift 0.0 points / baseline

← Republican +6D / independent opposition +6 →

Percentage points of margin, not vote share. A positive shift favors each race’s Democratic or independent opposition candidate. House projections are unaffected.

Assume outcomes in individual races

Choose a winner to force that race in every simulated election. These interventions do not update the national-error distribution, and are different from conditioning on observed results.

Senate raceAssumed winner

PUBLISHED BASELINENo user assumptions

A starting point. Then test the range.

Democratic control63%Published baseline

Republican control33%Published baseline

The published baseline uses 30,000 correlated simulations. An independent winner can leave control unresolved under the model’s caucus assumptions.

Loading the scenario engine. The published snapshot remains readable.

03 / RACE EVIDENCE

Close races. Uneven evidence.

Open the Senate map ↗

Compare projected margins and 80% model intervals. A narrow polling lead can coexist with a wide range of outcomes. Candidate names are polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.

On a small screen, swipe the race table sideways to compare all columns →

Senate experimental projections, uncertainty and polling coverage
Race / polling matchup	Win probability / margin	80% model interval R ← 0 → opposition · chart scale ±30 pts	Polling evidence
IowaJosh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R)	R 53%R +0.3	-6.0 to +5.4 pts · positive favors D	29 pollsLatest 2026-11-01
AlaskaMary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R)	D 56%D +0.7	-5.3 to +6.6 pts · positive favors D	13 pollsLatest 2026-11-01
NebraskaDan Osborn (I) / Pete Ricketts (R)	R 60%R +1.8	-10.7 to +7.2 pts · positive favors I	15 pollsLatest 2026-11-01
VirginiaDemocratic candidate (D) / Republican candidate (R)	D 67%D +7.6	-13.9 to +29.1 pts · positive favors D	0 pollsHistorical prior only
New JerseyDemocratic candidate (D) / Republican candidate (R)	D 68%D +7.9	-13.7 to +29.4 pts · positive favors D	0 pollsHistorical prior only
TexasJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	D 69%D +2.2	-3.5 to +7.8 pts · positive favors D	53 pollsLatest 2026-11-02
KansasAdam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R)	D 70%D +2.4	-3.4 to +8.2 pts · positive favors D	17 pollsLatest 2026-11-01
OhioSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R)	D 70%D +2.3	-3.4 to +8.1 pts · positive favors D	34 pollsLatest 2026-11-01
South CarolinaAnnie Andrews (D) / Darline Graham (R)	R 71%R +2.5	-8.4 to +3.4 pts · positive favors D	12 pollsLatest 2026-11-01
LouisianaJamie Davis (D) / Julia Letlow (R)	R 71%R +3.2	-10.5 to +4.1 pts · positive favors D	2 pollsLatest 2026-10-29
MaineTroy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)	D 78%D +3.4	-2.3 to +9.2 pts · positive favors D	30 pollsLatest 2026-11-01
OregonDemocratic candidate (D) / Republican candidate (R)	D 82%D +15.2	-6.3 to +36.7 pts · positive favors D	0 pollsHistorical prior only
MichiganAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	D 83%D +4.2	-1.5 to +9.8 pts · positive favors D	49 pollsLatest 2026-11-02
MississippiScott Colom (D) / Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)	R 83%R +5.2	-12.4 to +1.9 pts · positive favors D	2 pollsLatest 2026-10-22
DelawareDemocratic candidate (D) / Republican candidate (R)	D 83%D +15.9	-5.6 to +37.5 pts · positive favors D	0 pollsHistorical prior only
MinnesotaPeggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R)	D 89%D +5.5	-0.3 to +11.3 pts · positive favors D	19 pollsLatest 2026-11-01
MontanaSeth Bodnar (I) / Kurt Alme (R)	R 92%R +10.1	-19.0 to -1.1 pts · positive favors I	10 pollsLatest 2026-10-23
FloridaAngie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R)	R 93%R +6.4	-12.1 to -0.7 pts · positive favors D	26 pollsLatest 2026-11-02
New HampshireChris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R)	D 94%D +7.2	+1.3 to +13.0 pts · positive favors D	16 pollsLatest 2026-11-01
South DakotaBrian Bengs (I) / Mike Rounds (R)	R 95%R +11.3	-20.3 to -2.3 pts · positive favors I	10 pollsLatest 2026-10-26
GeorgiaJon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R)	D 97%D +8.3	+2.4 to +14.1 pts · positive favors D	13 pollsLatest 2026-11-02
KentuckyCharles Booker (D) / Andy Barr (R)	R 97%R +11.3	-19.3 to -3.4 pts · positive favors D	1 pollLatest 2026-08-27
North CarolinaRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R)	D 99%D +10.0	+4.2 to +15.8 pts · positive favors D	27 pollsLatest 2026-11-01
West VirginiaDemocratic candidate (D) / Republican candidate (R)	R 99%R +38.2	-59.8 to -16.7 pts · positive favors D	0 pollsHistorical prior only
IdahoTodd Achilles (I) / James Risch (R)	R >99%R +16.7	-25.7 to -7.8 pts · positive favors I	5 pollsLatest 2026-10-22
ArkansasHallie Shoffner (D) / Tom Cotton (R)	R >99%R +12.5	-19.0 to -6.1 pts · positive favors D	5 pollsLatest 2026-10-28
WyomingDemocratic candidate (D) / Republican candidate (R)	R >99%R +42.7	-64.2 to -21.2 pts · positive favors D	0 pollsHistorical prior only
IllinoisJuliana Stratton (D) / Don Tracy (R)	D >99%D +12.9	+6.6 to +19.2 pts · positive favors D	4 pollsLatest 2026-11-02
AlabamaEverett Wess (D) / Barry Moore (R)	R >99%R +15.7	-22.0 to -9.4 pts · positive favors D	4 pollsLatest 2026-10-24
New MexicoBen Ray Luján (D) / Larry Marker (R)	D >99%D +16.8	+10.5 to +23.1 pts · positive favors D	4 pollsLatest 2026-11-02
OklahomaJim Priest (D) / Kevin Hern (R)	R >99%R +22.4	-30.5 to -14.3 pts · positive favors D	1 pollLatest 2026-08-06
TennesseeMarquita Bradshaw (D) / Bill Hagerty (R)	R >99%R +21.2	-28.4 to -13.9 pts · positive favors D	2 pollsLatest 2026-11-02
ColoradoJohn Hickenlooper (D) / Mark Baisley (R)	D >99%D +19.0	+12.6 to +25.4 pts · positive favors D	3 pollsLatest 2026-11-02
Rhode IslandJack Reed (D) / Raymond McKay (R)	D >99%D +25.5	+18.9 to +32.0 pts · positive favors D	4 pollsLatest 2026-10-11
MassachusettsEd Markey (D) / John Deaton (R)	D >99%D +25.4	+19.4 to +31.5 pts · positive favors D	8 pollsLatest 2026-10-31

35 Senate races · closest probability first

Why does a race look this way?

Inspect a Senate race

INSIDE THE PROJECTION

Iowa

Open the source-linked race page ↗

Weighted polling averageD +0.5

Historical-results priorR +10.9

Final model projectionR +0.3

92.9% polling / 7.1% historical prior in the projected mean. The prior is not a second current poll. Polling percentages and model projections measure different things.

70%D control if D wins here

59%D control if R wins here

Both comparisons force this race in every baseline draw while preserving all other outcomes. They are interventions, not conditional probabilities after observing a result.

Inspect the exact polling weights

Selected model-matchup weights for Iowa
Pollster / field end	Poll margin	Share of poll average	Share of final mean
AtlasIntel2026-11-01	D +4.1	9.0%	8.4%
The New York Times/Siena University2026-11-01	D +0.7	6.8%	6.3%
GrayHouse2026-10-31	R +2.0	8.2%	7.6%
YouGov2026-10-29	D +1.0	5.1%	4.8%
co/efficient2026-10-28	R +2.0	4.7%	4.4%
Echelon Insights2026-10-23	D +2.0	5.1%	4.8%
InsiderAdvantage2026-10-22	R +1.5	6.5%	6.1%
co/efficient2026-10-19	R +3.0	3.2%	3.0%
Trafalgar Group2026-10-15	R +1.7	3.3%	3.0%
New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group2026-10-13	D +2.0	4.5%	4.2%
National Public Affairs2026-10-12	R +1.0	2.3%	2.2%
YouGov2026-10-12	D +1.0	2.9%	2.7%
Marist University2026-10-11	D +3.0	5.7%	5.3%
Emerson College2026-10-06	R +1.6	3.7%	3.5%
CNN/SSRS2026-10-05	R +2.0	4.0%	3.7%
Suffolk University2026-10-04	D +4.4	3.1%	2.8%
The New York Times/Siena University2026-10-01	R +0.9	2.3%	2.1%
Quantus Insights2026-09-29	R +2.4	3.2%	2.9%
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research2026-09-28	D +2.0	3.6%	3.3%
InsiderAdvantage2026-09-23	D +1.7	2.5%	2.3%
Marist University2026-09-20	D +8.0	2.8%	2.6%
Trafalgar Group2026-09-18	R +1.9	1.3%	1.2%
co/efficient2026-09-16	R +4.0	1.1%	1.0%
Cygnal Political2026-09-11	Even	0.7%	0.7%
YouGov2026-09-08	D +2.0	1.0%	0.9%
Emerson College2026-09-01	R +4.4	1.3%	1.2%
Global Strategy Group2026-08-31	D +4.0	0.6%	0.6%
Abacus Data2026-08-28	D +7.0	0.7%	0.7%
Suffolk University2026-08-23	R +4.6	0.8%	0.7%

Weights combine sample size, recency and the source partisan flag; each pollster’s aggregate contribution is capped. These weights do not certify poll quality or survey independence.

04 / THE POLL EXPLORER

Show the evidence.

Poll catalog JSON ↗All polls CSV ↓

Source-eligible Senate, House district and national generic-ballot questions, including observations outside the model’s selected matchups. Each row shows every candidate answer retained from that question. Repeated pollsters and matchups are visible; rows are not necessarily independent surveys.

948 source-eligible poll questions · newest first

Source-linked qualifying polling matchups and reported percentages
Race / matchup	Pollster / source	Field dates / sample	Reported percentages / model margin
Tennessee SenateBill Hagerty (R) / Marquita Bradshaw (D)	Targoz Market Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2025-10-24 – 2026-11-02716 · Likely voters	R 57% / D 37%Model pair: Marquita Bradshaw (D) / Bill Hagerty (R) · R +20.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) / Ted Brown (LIB)	Research Co. ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-31 – 2026-11-02450 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 46% / LIB 1%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +3.0 · reported percentage-point margin
New Mexico SenateBen Ray Luján (D) / Larry Marker (R)	Research Co. ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-31 – 2026-11-02450 · Likely voters	D 56% / R 37%Model pair: Ben Ray Luján (D) / Larry Marker (R) · D +19.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Illinois SenateJuliana Stratton (D) / Don Tracy (R)	Research Co. ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-31 – 2026-11-02450 · Likely voters	D 53% / R 41%Model pair: Juliana Stratton (D) / Don Tracy (R) · D +12.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Georgia SenateJon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R)	Research Co. ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-31 – 2026-11-02450 · Likely voters	D 52% / R 42%Model pair: Jon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R) · D +10.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Florida SenateAshley Moody (R) / Angie Nixon (D) / Neil Gillespie (NPA)	Research Co. ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-31 – 2026-11-02450 · Likely voters	R 51% / D 44% / NPA 1%Model pair: Angie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R) · R +7.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Colorado SenateJohn Hickenlooper (D) / Mark Baisley (R)	Research Co. ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-31 – 2026-11-02450 · Likely voters	D 57% / R 35%Model pair: John Hickenlooper (D) / Mark Baisley (R) · D +22.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	John Zogby Strategies ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-11-01 – 2026-11-021,001 · Likely voters	D 53% / R 47%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +6.0 · normalized two-party margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	John Zogby Strategies ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-31 – 2026-11-021,001 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 49%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	Ipsos ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-29 – 2026-11-021,357 · Registered voters	D 49% / R 42% / OTH 2%No two-party model margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	Ipsos ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-29 – 2026-11-021,212 · Likely voters	D 52% / R 44% / OTH 3%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +8.3 · normalized two-party margin
Georgia SenateJon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-31 – 2026-11-022,500 · Likely voters	D 52.7% / R 46%Model pair: Jon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R) · D +6.7 · reported percentage-point margin
California CA-07 HouseDoris Matsui (D) / Mai Vang (D)	USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-28 – 2026-11-01442 · Likely voters	D 49% / D 39%No two-party model margin
Texas SenateKen Paxton (R) / James Talarico (D) / Ted Brown (LIB)	Trafalgar Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-31 – 2026-11-011,089 · Likely voters	R 48.1% / D 47.5% / LIB 2.4%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · R +0.6 · reported percentage-point margin
South Carolina SenateDarline Graham (R) / Annie Andrews (D) / Kasie Whitener (LIB) / Mark Hackett (CON)	Trafalgar Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-31 – 2026-11-011,091 · Likely voters	R 47.5% / D 45.5% / LIB 1.8% / CON 1%Model pair: Annie Andrews (D) / Darline Graham (R) · R +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) / Gregory Levy (I) / Bill Redpath (LIB)	Trafalgar Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-31 – 2026-11-011,092 · Likely voters	D 46.6% / R 45.1% / I 3.4% / LIB 1.4%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +1.5 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) / Lydia Christensen (LIB) / Douglas Marsh (GRE) / Timothy Long (CON)	Trafalgar Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-31 – 2026-11-011,087 · Likely voters	D 47.1% / R 45.9% / LIB 1.5% / GRE 0.3% / CON 0.3%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +1.2 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-27 – 2026-11-011,215 · Registered voters	D 51.5% / R 39.3%D +12.2 · Reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-27 – 2026-11-011,215 · Likely voters	D 50.2% / R 43.1%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +7.1 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-26 – 2026-11-01717 · Likely voters	D 49.3% / R 43.7%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +5.6 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-23 – 2026-11-011,011 · Likely voters	D 52.6% / R 41.6%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +11.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Maine SenateTroy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-27 – 2026-11-01714 · Likely voters	D 50.9% / R 45%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · D +5.9 · reported percentage-point margin
Kansas SenateAdam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R) / David Graham (LIB)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-27 – 2026-11-01736 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 43.9% / LIB 4.4%Model pair: Adam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R) · D +5.1 · reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateJosh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-26 – 2026-11-01705 · Likely voters	D 47.6% / R 46.9%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · D +0.7 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R)	Survey 160 ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-27 – 2026-11-011,122 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 46%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R)	Survey 160 ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-27 – 2026-11-011,159 · Registered voters	D 50% / R 45%D +5.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Minnesota SenatePeggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R)	Survey 160 ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-27 – 2026-11-011,365 · Likely voters	D 52% / R 43%Model pair: Peggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) · D +9.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Minnesota SenatePeggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R)	Survey 160 ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-27 – 2026-11-011,410 · Registered voters	D 52% / R 42%D +10.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Maine SenateTroy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)	Survey 160 ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-27 – 2026-11-011,322 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 47%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · D +3.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Maine SenateTroy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)	Survey 160 ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-27 – 2026-11-011,334 · Registered voters	D 49% / R 47%D +2.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Kansas SenateAdam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R)	Survey 160 ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-27 – 2026-11-011,267 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 44%Model pair: Adam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R) · D +6.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Kansas SenateAdam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R)	Survey 160 ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-27 – 2026-11-011,339 · Registered voters	D 50% / R 43%D +7.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R)	Research Co. ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-30 – 2026-11-01450 · Likely voters	D 45% / R 44%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Minnesota SenatePeggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R)	Research Co. ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-30 – 2026-11-01450 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 43%Model pair: Peggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) · D +5.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	Research Co. ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-30 – 2026-11-01450 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 46%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Morning Consult ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-26 – 2026-11-0116,929 · Likely voters	D 51.02% / R 43.09%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +8.4 · normalized two-party margin
Alaska SenateMary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-31 – 2026-11-011,200 · Likely votersFinal ranked-choice round	D 50.1% / R 49.9%Model pair: Mary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R) · D +0.2 · reported percentage-point margin
Alaska SenateMary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R) / Dan J. Sullivan (R) / Gerald Heikes (R)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-31 – 2026-11-011,200 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	D 48.3% / R 48.1% / R 2% / R 0.5%No two-party model margin
Nebraska SenatePete Ricketts (R) / Dan Osborn (I) / Chuck Conboy (America First Party) / Mike Marvin (LMN) / Robin Richards (Nebraska Working People Party)	GrayHouse ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-29 – 2026-11-01534 · Likely voters	R 50% / I 46% / America First Party 1% / LMN 1% / Nebraska Working People Party 1%Model pair: Dan Osborn (I) / Pete Ricketts (R) · R +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Focaldata ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-30 – 2026-11-012,163 · Registered voters	D 50.1% / R 42.54%D +7.6 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Focaldata ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-30 – 2026-11-012,444 · Adults	D 47.16% / R 40.62%D +6.5 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Focaldata ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-30 – 2026-11-012,090 · Likely voters	D 52.27% / R 44.83%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +7.7 · normalized two-party margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) / Ted Brown (LIB)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-31 – 2026-11-01500 · Likely voters	D 49.8% / R 48.4% / LIB 1.8%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +1.4 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateJon Husted (R) / Sherrod Brown (D) / Bill Redpath (LIB) / Gregory Levy (I)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-31 – 2026-11-01930 · Likely voters	R 48.3% / D 45.8% / LIB 3.6% / I 2.3%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · R +2.5 · reported percentage-point margin
Montana MT-01 HouseSam Forstag (D) / Aaron Flint (R)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-31 – 2026-11-01311 · Likely voters	D 48.8% / R 48.5%Model pair: Sam Forstag (D) / Aaron Flint (R) · D +0.3 · normalized two-party margin
Missouri MO-02 HouseFred Wellman (D) / Ann Wagner (R)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-31 – 2026-11-01413 · Likely voters	D 49.5% / R 48.7%Model pair: Fred Wellman (D) / Ann Wagner (R) · D +0.8 · normalized two-party margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) / Lydia Christensen (LIB) / Walter Kristy (NAT) / Douglas Marsh (GRE)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-11-01500 · Likely voters	D 51.2% / R 45.2% / LIB 3.2% / NAT 0.4% / GRE 0.1%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +6.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Maine SenateSusan Collins (R) / Troy Jackson (D)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-31 – 2026-11-01600 · Likely voters	R 50.6% / D 49.4%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · R +1.2 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	Concord Public Opinion Partners ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-30 – 2026-11-01510 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 41%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +10.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	AtlasIntel ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-28 – 2026-11-013,566 · Adults	D 55.5% / R 41.4%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +14.6 · normalized two-party margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	AtlasIntel ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-28 – 2026-11-011,678 · Adults	D 51.3% / R 45.4%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +5.9 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R)	AtlasIntel ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-28 – 2026-11-011,801 · Likely voters	D 51.4% / R 43.9%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +7.5 · reported percentage-point margin
New Hampshire SenateChris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R)	AtlasIntel ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-28 – 2026-11-011,057 · Likely voters	D 52.3% / R 44.2%Model pair: Chris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R) · D +8.1 · reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R)	AtlasIntel ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-28 – 2026-11-011,459 · Likely voters	D 56.4% / R 41.5%Model pair: Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) · D +14.9 · reported percentage-point margin
Minnesota SenatePeggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R)	AtlasIntel ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-28 – 2026-11-012,133 · Likely voters	D 48.1% / R 45.7%Model pair: Peggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) · D +2.4 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	AtlasIntel ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-28 – 2026-11-011,316 · Likely voters	D 53.5% / R 46.4%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +7.1 · reported percentage-point margin
Maine SenateTroy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)	AtlasIntel ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-28 – 2026-11-01967 · Likely voters	D 53.1% / R 44%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · D +9.1 · reported percentage-point margin
Kansas SenateAdam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R)	AtlasIntel ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-28 – 2026-11-012,038 · Likely voters	D 51.9% / R 44.9%Model pair: Adam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R) · D +7.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateJosh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R)	AtlasIntel ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-28 – 2026-11-011,219 · Likely voters	D 50.5% / R 46.4%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · D +4.1 · reported percentage-point margin
Alaska AK-01 HouseBill Hill (I) / Nick Begich (R) / Eric Hafner (D) / Jim C. McDermott (LIB)	AtlasIntel ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-28 – 2026-11-01522 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	I 46.6% / R 46.5% / D 5.9% / LIB 0.3%No two-party model margin
Alaska SenateMary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R) / Gerald Heikes (R) / Dan J. Sullivan (R)	AtlasIntel ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-28 – 2026-11-01522 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	D 50.1% / R 44.6% / R 2.5% / R 0.6%No two-party model margin
New Hampshire NH-02 HouseMaggie Goodlander (D) / Lily Tang Williams (R) / Robbie Mahrou (I)	University of New Hampshire ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-27 – 2026-10-31997 · Likely voters	D 56% / R 41% / I 2%Model pair: Maggie Goodlander (D) / Lily Tang Williams (R) · D +15.5 · normalized two-party margin
New Hampshire NH-01 HouseStefany Shaheen (D) / Anthony DiLorenzo (R)	University of New Hampshire ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-27 – 2026-10-311,029 · Likely voters	D 56% / R 43%Model pair: Stefany Shaheen (D) / Anthony DiLorenzo (R) · D +13.1 · normalized two-party margin
New Hampshire SenateChris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R) / Edmond Laplante (CON)	University of New Hampshire ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-27 – 2026-10-312,035 · Likely voters	D 54% / R 42% / CON 2%Model pair: Chris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R) · D +12.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Maine ME-02 HousePaul LePage (R) / Matt Dunlap (D)	University of New Hampshire ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-27 – 2026-10-31793 · Likely voters	R 52% / D 47%Model pair: Matt Dunlap (D) / Paul LePage (R) · R +5.1 · normalized two-party margin
Maine ME-01 HouseChellie Pingree (D) / Ronald Russell (R)	University of New Hampshire ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-27 – 2026-10-31839 · Likely voters	D 65% / R 32%Model pair: Chellie Pingree (D) / Ronald Russell (R) · D +34.0 · normalized two-party margin
Maine SenateTroy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)	University of New Hampshire ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-27 – 2026-10-311,633 · Likely voters	D 54% / R 45%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · D +9.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Massachusetts SenateEd Markey (D) / John Deaton (R) / Joe Tache (PSL) / Shiva Ayyadurai (I)	University of New Hampshire ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-27 – 2026-10-31877 · Likely voters	D 53% / R 32% / PSL 7% / I 4%Model pair: Ed Markey (D) / John Deaton (R) · D +21.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateAshley Hinson (R) / Josh Turek (D) / Thomas Laehn (LIB)	GrayHouse ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-28 – 2026-10-31601 · Likely voters	R 48% / D 46% / LIB 2%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · R +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R)	ActiVote ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-18 – 2026-10-31400 · Likely voters	D 50.2% / R 49.8%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +0.4 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-27 – 2026-10-303,908 · Likely voters	D 53% / R 44%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +9.3 · normalized two-party margin
Alaska AK-01 HouseNick Begich (R) / Bill Hill (I) / Eric Hafner (D) / Jim C. McDermott (LIB)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-23 – 2026-10-30610 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	R 44% / I 37.2% / D 5.6% / LIB 5.4%No two-party model margin
Alaska AK-01 HouseNick Begich (R) / Bill Hill (I)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-23 – 2026-10-30562 · Likely votersFinal ranked-choice round	R 51.8% / I 48.2%R +3.6 · Reported percentage-point margin
Alaska AK-01 HouseNick Begich (R) / Bill Hill (I) / Eric Hafner (D) / Jim C. McDermott (LIB)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-23 – 2026-10-30576 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	R 47.7% / I 40.4% / D 6% / LIB 5.9%No two-party model margin
Alaska SenateMary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-23 – 2026-10-30610 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	D 47.6% / R 46.2%Model pair: Mary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R) · D +1.4 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	TIPP Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-27 – 2026-10-301,158 · Likely voters	D 52% / R 42%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +10.6 · normalized two-party margin
Florida SenateAshley Moody (R) / Angie Nixon (D)	Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-26 – 2026-10-30859 · Likely voters	R 49% / D 45%Model pair: Angie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R) · R +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) / Ted Brown (LIB)	Kreate Strategies ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-27 – 2026-10-30900 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 45% / LIB 0%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +3.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) / Bill Redpath (LIB) / Gregory Levy (I)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-29 – 2026-10-301,200 · Likely voters	D 48.8% / R 47% / LIB 1.7% / I 1.2%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +1.8 · reported percentage-point margin
Minnesota SenatePeggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) / Rebecca Whiting (LIB) / Marisa Simonetti (I)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-29 – 2026-10-301,200 · Likely voters	D 49.3% / R 46.4% / LIB 2.7% / I 0.5%Model pair: Peggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) · D +2.9 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-28 – 2026-10-301,000 · Registered voters	D 52% / R 45%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +7.2 · normalized two-party margin
Michigan MI-13 HouseDonavan McKinney (D) / Taras Nykoriak (R) / Christopher Dardzinski (CON) / Simone Coleman (WCP)	Center for Strategic Politics ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-28 – 2026-10-30310 · Likely voters	D 69% / R 19% / CON 1% / WCP 1%Model pair: Donavan McKinney (D) / Taras Nykoriak (R) · D +56.8 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Big Data Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-27 – 2026-10-303,418 · Registered voters	D 51.2% / R 39.5%D +11.7 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Big Data Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-27 – 2026-10-303,214 · Likely voters	D 52.3% / R 40%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +13.3 · normalized two-party margin
Florida SenateAshley Moody (R) / Angie Nixon (D) / Neil Gillespie (NPA)	Big Data Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-26 – 2026-10-301,122 · Registered voters	R 50.9% / D 44.5% / NPA 4.5%No two-party model margin
Florida SenateAshley Moody (R) / Angie Nixon (D) / Neil Gillespie (NPA)	Big Data Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-26 – 2026-10-301,067 · Likely voters	R 51.6% / D 44.7% / NPA 3.8%Model pair: Angie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R) · R +6.9 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	ActiVote ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-22 – 2026-10-302,000 · Likely voters	D 53.5% / R 46.5%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +7.0 · normalized two-party margin
Illinois SenateJuliana Stratton (D) / Don Tracy (R)	ActiVote ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-21 – 2026-10-30400 · Likely voters	D 55.6% / R 44.4%Model pair: Juliana Stratton (D) / Don Tracy (R) · D +11.2 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-26 – 2026-10-292,138 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 47%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-26 – 2026-10-292,084 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 48%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Nebraska SenateDan Osborn (I) / Pete Ricketts (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-26 – 2026-10-291,974 · Likely voters	I 49% / R 49%Model pair: Dan Osborn (I) / Pete Ricketts (R) · Even · reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-26 – 2026-10-292,123 · Likely voters	D 55% / R 44%Model pair: Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) · D +11.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-26 – 2026-10-292,088 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 47%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Maine SenateTroy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-26 – 2026-10-291,501 · Likely voters	D 52% / R 47%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · D +5.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Kansas SenateAdam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-26 – 2026-10-292,086 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 49%Model pair: Adam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R) · D +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateJosh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-26 – 2026-10-292,016 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 49%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · D +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Nebraska SenatePete Ricketts (R) / Dan Osborn (I)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-23 – 2026-10-29809 · Likely voters	R 48.7% / I 43.01%Model pair: Dan Osborn (I) / Pete Ricketts (R) · R +5.7 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	The Honest Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-28 – 2026-10-291,158 · Likely voters	D 54% / R 41%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +13.7 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	The Honest Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-28 – 2026-10-291,290 · Registered voters	D 52% / R 40%D +12.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Florida SenateAshley Moody (R) / Angie Nixon (D)	Targoz Market Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-26 – 2026-10-291,013 · Likely voters	R 52% / D 43%Model pair: Angie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R) · R +9.0 · reported percentage-point margin
South Carolina SenateAnnie Andrews (D) / Darline Graham (R) / Kasie Whitener (LIB) / Mark Hackett (CON)	Patinkin Research Strategies ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-27 – 2026-10-29500 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 43% / LIB 3% / CON 3%Model pair: Annie Andrews (D) / Darline Graham (R) · D +5.0 · reported percentage-point margin
New Hampshire SenateChris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R)	National Public Affairs ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-25 – 2026-10-29800 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 46%Model pair: Chris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R) · D +5.0 · reported percentage-point margin
New Hampshire SenateChris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R) / Edmond Laplante (CON)	National Public Affairs ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-10-25 – 2026-10-29800 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 45% / CON 2%No two-party model margin
Nebraska SenatePete Ricketts (R) / Dan Osborn (I)	National Public Affairs ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-25 – 2026-10-29800 · Likely voters	R 49% / I 48%Model pair: Dan Osborn (I) / Pete Ricketts (R) · R +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Nebraska SenatePete Ricketts (R) / Dan Osborn (I) / Mike Marvin (LMN) / Chuck Conboy (America First Party) / Robin Richards (Nebraska Working People Party)	National Public Affairs ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-10-25 – 2026-10-29800 · Likely voters	R 48% / I 45% / LMN 2% / America First Party 1% / Nebraska Working People Party 1%No two-party model margin
Florida SenateAshley Moody (R) / Angie Nixon (D) / Neil Gillespie (NPA)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-28 – 2026-10-291,200 · Likely voters	R 48.5% / D 42.7% / NPA 2.4%Model pair: Angie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R) · R +5.8 · reported percentage-point margin
Louisiana SenateJamie Davis (D) / Julia Letlow (R)	Hart Research Associates ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-28 – 2026-10-29502 · Likely voters	D 45% / R 45%Model pair: Jamie Davis (D) / Julia Letlow (R) · Even · reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) / Shannon Bray (LIB) / Michael Dublin (GRE)	East Carolina University Center for Survey Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-26 – 2026-10-291,041 · Likely voters	D 54% / R 44.9% / LIB 0.8% / GRE 0.3%Model pair: Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) · D +9.1 · reported percentage-point margin
Alaska SenateMary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R) / Dan J. Sullivan (R) / Gerald Heikes (R)	Alaska Survey Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-26 – 2026-10-291,326 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	D 47.7% / R 45.9% / R 3.4% / R 3%No two-party model margin
Alaska SenateMary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R)	Alaska Survey Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-26 – 2026-10-291,326 · Likely votersFinal ranked-choice round	D 50.8% / R 49.2%Model pair: Mary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R) · D +1.6 · reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateAshley Hinson (R) / Josh Turek (D)	co/efficient ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-281,020 · Likely voters	R 48% / D 46%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · R +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateAshley Hinson (R) / Josh Turek (D) / Thomas Laehn (LIB)	co/efficient ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-281,020 · Likely voters	R 48% / D 46% / LIB 1%No two-party model margin
California CA-22 HouseRandy Villegas (D) / David G. Valadao (R)	USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-22 – 2026-10-28356 · Likely voters	D 54% / R 44%D +10.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Florida SenateAshley Moody (R) / Angie Nixon (D)	The Political Matrix/The Listener Group ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-26 – 2026-10-28500 · Likely voters	R 41.8% / D 35.8%Model pair: Angie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R) · R +6.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Minnesota SenatePeggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) / Marisa Simonetti (I) / Rebecca Whiting (LIB)	SurveyUSA ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-24 – 2026-10-28714 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 41% / I 2% / LIB 2%Model pair: Peggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) · D +7.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateKen Paxton (R) / James Talarico (D) / Ted Brown (LIB)	Quantus Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-26 – 2026-10-281,207 · Likely voters	R 49.4% / D 48.4% / LIB 1.4%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · R +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Arizona AZ-01 HouseAmish Shah (D) / Jay Feely (R)	Keating Research, Inc. ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-26 – 2026-10-28500 · Likely voters	D 49.4% / R 45%Model pair: Amish Shah (D) / Jay Feely (R) · D +4.7 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Ipsos ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-09 – 2026-10-281,209 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 44%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +6.4 · normalized two-party margin
Arkansas SenateTom Cotton (R) / Hallie Shoffner (D) / Jeff Wadlin (LIB)	GrayHouse ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-27 – 2026-10-28509 · Likely voters	R 55% / D 39% / LIB 4%Model pair: Hallie Shoffner (D) / Tom Cotton (R) · R +16.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Kansas SenateAdam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R) / David Graham (LIB)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-26 – 2026-10-28800 · Likely voters	D 49.5% / R 47.1% / LIB 3.4%Model pair: Adam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R) · D +2.4 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	ActiVote ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-22 – 2026-10-28400 · Likely voters	D 52.1% / R 47.9%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +4.2 · reported percentage-point margin
California CA-48 HouseMarni von Wilpert (D) / Jim Desmond (R)	USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-22 – 2026-10-27474 · Likely voters	D 52% / R 44%D +8.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Tufts ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-23 – 2026-10-271,000 · Adults	D 47% / R 36%D +11.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Tufts ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-23 – 2026-10-27499 · Likely voters	D 52% / R 40%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +13.0 · normalized two-party margin
Florida SenateAshley Moody (R) / Angie Nixon (D)	St. Pete Polls ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-25 – 2026-10-27916 · Likely voters	R 49% / D 44.7%Model pair: Angie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R) · R +4.3 · reported percentage-point margin
Florida FL-25 HouseJared Moskowitz (D) / Scott Singer (R)	Public Policy Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-10-26 – 2026-10-27523 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 41%D +6.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) / Lydia Christensen (LIB) / Walter Kristy (NAT) / Douglas Marsh (GRE) / Timothy Long (CON)	Mitchell Research & Communications ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-26 – 2026-10-27636 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 44% / LIB 1% / NAT 1% / GRE 0% / CON 0%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +7.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Maine SenateTroy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)	Data for Progress ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-23 – 2026-10-27652 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 45%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · D +5.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	CNN/SSRS ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-20 – 2026-10-27923 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 43%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +6.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	CNN/SSRS ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-20 – 2026-10-27768 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 42%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +7.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Florida SenateAshley Moody (R) / Angie Nixon (D)	ActiVote ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-17 – 2026-10-27400 · Likely voters	R 53% / D 47%Model pair: Angie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R) · R +6.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	A2 Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-23 – 2026-10-27631 · Likely voters	D 50.2% / R 47.2%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +3.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	YouGov Blue ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-21 – 2026-10-261,000 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 43%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +8.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	YouGov Blue ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-21 – 2026-10-261,000 · Registered voters	D 52% / R 43%D +9.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-23 – 2026-10-261,263 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 41%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +9.9 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-23 – 2026-10-261,123 · Likely voters	D 52% / R 41%D +11.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-23 – 2026-10-261,430 · Registered voters	D 46% / R 40%D +6.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
California CA-06 HouseRichard Pan (D) / Kevin Kiley (I)	USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-22 – 2026-10-26439 · Likely voters	D 55% / I 43%No two-party model margin
California CA-01 HouseMike McGuire (D) / James Gallagher (R)	USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-22 – 2026-10-26444 · Likely voters	D 56% / R 41%D +15.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Kansas SenateAdam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R) / David Graham (LIB)	The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-22 – 2026-10-26801 · Likely voters	D 52% / R 43% / LIB 4%Model pair: Adam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R) · D +9.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Kansas SenateAdam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R)	The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-22 – 2026-10-26801 · Likely voters	D 54% / R 44%D +10.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
South Carolina SenateDarline Graham (R) / Annie Andrews (D)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-19 – 2026-10-26707 · Likely voters	R 48.47% / D 47.76%Model pair: Annie Andrews (D) / Darline Graham (R) · R +0.7 · reported percentage-point margin
Minnesota SenatePeggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-19 – 2026-10-26752 · Likely voters	D 54.21% / R 40.31%Model pair: Peggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) · D +13.9 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) / Bill Redpath (LIB) / Gregory Levy (I)	Suffolk University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-21 – 2026-10-26500 · Likely voters	D 46.6% / R 43.8% / LIB 1.6% / I 1.6%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +2.8 · reported percentage-point margin
Minnesota MN-08 HousePete Stauber (R) / Trina Swanson (D)	Public Policy Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-25 – 2026-10-26585 · Registered voters	R 49% / D 43%Model pair: Trina Swanson (D) / Pete Stauber (R) · R +6.5 · normalized two-party margin
Minnesota MN-08 HouseGeneric Republican (R) / Generic Democrat (D)	Public Policy Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-10-25 – 2026-10-26585 · Registered voters	R 48% / D 44%R +4.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	Ipsos ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-22 – 2026-10-261,280 · Registered voters	D 50% / R 41% / OTH 3%No two-party model margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	Ipsos ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-22 – 2026-10-261,164 · Likely voters	D 53% / R 44% / OTH 2%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +9.3 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-24 – 2026-10-261,000 · Likely voters	D 52.4% / R 42.4%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +10.5 · normalized two-party margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) / Ted Brown (LIB)	Data for Progress ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-23 – 2026-10-26712 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 45% / LIB 2%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
South Dakota SenateBrian Bengs (I) / Mike Rounds (R)	Concord Public Opinion Partners ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-22 – 2026-10-26448 · Likely voters	I 43% / R 41%Model pair: Brian Bengs (I) / Mike Rounds (R) · I +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Maine SenateTroy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)	CNN/SSRS ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-20 – 2026-10-26783 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 45%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · D +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Kansas SenateAdam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R)	CNN/SSRS ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-20 – 2026-10-26838 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 45%Model pair: Adam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R) · D +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	Upswing Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-24 – 2026-10-25505 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 45%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +5.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Florida SenateAshley Moody (R) / Angie Nixon (D)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-19 – 2026-10-25813 · Likely voters	R 50.35% / D 44.32%Model pair: Angie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R) · R +6.0 · reported percentage-point margin
South Carolina SenateDarline Graham (R) / Annie Andrews (D) / Ralph Norman (R) / Kasie Whitener (LIB) / Mark Hackett (CON)	The Citadel Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-14 – 2026-10-25890 · Likely voters	R 42% / D 39% / R 2% / LIB 1% / CON 1%No two-party model margin
South Carolina SenateAnnie Andrews (D) / Darline Graham (R) / Ralph Norman (R) / Mark Hackett (CON) / Kasie Whitener (LIB)	The Citadel Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-14 – 2026-10-251,009 · Registered voters	D 40% / R 34% / R 3% / CON 2% / LIB 1%No two-party model margin
South Carolina SenateDarline Graham (R) / Annie Andrews (D) / Kasie Whitener (LIB) / Mark Hackett (CON)	Targoz Market Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-16 – 2026-10-25895 · Likely voters	R 47% / D 46% / LIB 2% / CON 1%Model pair: Annie Andrews (D) / Darline Graham (R) · R +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Alabama AL-02 HouseGeneric Republican (R) / Generic Democrat (D)	Remington ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-23 – 2026-10-25642 · Likely voters	R 51% / D 44%R +7.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Alabama AL-02 HouseRhett Marques (R) / Shomari Figures (D)	Remington ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-23 – 2026-10-25642 · Likely voters	R 48% / D 46%R +2.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) / Shannon Bray (LIB) / Michael Dublin (GRE)	Quantus Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-24 – 2026-10-25722 · Likely voters	D 52.4% / R 43.4% / LIB 1.2% / GRE 0.8%Model pair: Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) · D +9.0 · reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R)	Quantus Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-24 – 2026-10-25722 · Likely voters	D 51.7% / R 42.9%D +8.8 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Morning Consult ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-19 – 2026-10-2517,491 · Likely voters	D 50.1% / R 43.4%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +7.2 · normalized two-party margin
Maine SenateTroy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)	Marist University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-22 – 2026-10-251,449 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 47%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · D +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Maine SenateTroy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)	Marist University ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-22 – 2026-10-251,449 · Registered voters	D 53% / R 44%D +9.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Leger ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-23 – 2026-10-251,037 · Adults	D 42% / R 36%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +7.7 · normalized two-party margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) / Lydia Christensen (LIB) / Timothy Long (CON) / Douglas Marsh (GRE) / Walter Kristy (NAT)	Data for Progress ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-23 – 2026-10-25622 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 46% / LIB 1% / CON 1% / GRE 0% / NAT 0%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Virginia VA-01 HouseShannon Taylor (D) / Robert Wittman (R)	DCCC Targeting Team ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-24 – 2026-10-25478 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 47%Model pair: Shannon Taylor (D) / Robert Wittman (R) · D +1.1 · normalized two-party margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) / Ted Brown (LIB)	Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-21 – 2026-10-252,000 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 47% / LIB 3%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
California CA-34 HouseAngela Gonzales-Torres (D) / Jimmy Gomez (D)	USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-16 – 2026-10-24423 · Likely voters	D 51% / D 45%No two-party model margin
South Carolina SenateDarline Graham (R) / Annie Andrews (D) / Kasie Whitener (LIB) / Mark Hackett (CON)	East Carolina University Center for Survey Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-19 – 2026-10-24955 · Likely voters	R 51.2% / D 47.3% / LIB 0.7% / CON 0.7%Model pair: Annie Andrews (D) / Darline Graham (R) · R +3.9 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Cygnal ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-23 – 2026-10-241,500 · Likely voters	D 51.5% / R 43.1%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +8.9 · normalized two-party margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R)	Concord Public Opinion Partners ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-22 – 2026-10-24469 · Likely voters	D 46% / R 42%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Alabama SenateBarry Moore (R) / Everett Wess (D)	Blueprint Polling ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-22 – 2026-10-24695 · Likely voters	R 47.8% / D 39.5%Model pair: Everett Wess (D) / Barry Moore (R) · R +8.3 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-21 – 2026-10-231,749 · Likely voters	D 53% / R 45%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +8.2 · normalized two-party margin
Maine SenateSusan Collins (R) / Troy Jackson (D)	Trafalgar Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-21 – 2026-10-231,077 · Likely voters	R 47% / D 46.5%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · R +0.5 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	The Argument/Verasight ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-21 – 2026-10-231,549 · Registered voters	D 54.7% / R 45.3%D +9.4 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	The Argument/Verasight ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-21 – 2026-10-231,549 · Likely voters	D 55.4% / R 44.6%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +10.8 · normalized two-party margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	Michigan State University Office for Survey Research/Verasight ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-08 – 2026-10-231,383 · Likely voters	D 51.4% / R 42.2%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +9.2 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Echelon Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-16 – 2026-10-232,907 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 46%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +5.2 · normalized two-party margin
Ohio SenateJon Husted (R) / Sherrod Brown (D) / Gregory Levy (I) / Bill Redpath (LIB)	Echelon Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-16 – 2026-10-23508 · Likely voters	R 47% / D 47% / I 2% / LIB 1%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · Even · reported percentage-point margin
Nebraska SenatePete Ricketts (R) / Dan Osborn (I) / Robin Richards (Nebraska Working People Party) / Chuck Conboy (America First Party)	Echelon Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-16 – 2026-10-23407 · Likely voters	R 47% / I 46% / Nebraska Working People Party 2% / America First Party 1%Model pair: Dan Osborn (I) / Pete Ricketts (R) · R +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Maine SenateTroy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)	Echelon Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-16 – 2026-10-23413 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 44%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · D +7.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateJosh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) / Thomas Laehn (LIB)	Echelon Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-16 – 2026-10-23403 · Likely voters	D 45% / R 43% / LIB 7%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · D +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Georgia SenateJon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R)	Echelon Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-16 – 2026-10-23508 · Likely voters	D 55% / R 40%Model pair: Jon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R) · D +15.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Florida SenateAshley Moody (R) / Angie Nixon (D) / Neil Gillespie (NPA)	Echelon Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-16 – 2026-10-23515 · Likely voters	R 51% / D 43% / NPA 3%Model pair: Angie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R) · R +8.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Montana SenateSeth Bodnar (I) / Kurt Alme (R) / Alani Bankhead (D) / Kyle Austin (LIB)	Concord Public Opinion Partners ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-22 – 2026-10-23410 · Likely voters	I 39% / R 38% / D 10% / LIB 2%Model pair: Seth Bodnar (I) / Kurt Alme (R) · I +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Florida SenateAshley Moody (R) / Angie Nixon (D)	Workbench Strategy ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-18 – 2026-10-22800 · Likely voters	R 49% / D 47%Model pair: Angie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R) · R +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Idaho SenateJames Risch (R) / Todd Achilles (I)	VoteNexus ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-21 – 2026-10-22700 · Likely voters	R 49% / I 43%Model pair: Todd Achilles (I) / James Risch (R) · R +6.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Minnesota SenatePeggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R)	Victory Insights ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-21 – 2026-10-221,194 · Likely voters	D 47.8% / R 44.4%Model pair: Peggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) · D +3.4 · reported percentage-point margin
Pennsylvania PA-10 HouseScott Perry (R) / Janelle Stelson (D)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-16 – 2026-10-22404 · Likely voters	R 48.03% / D 47.65%Model pair: Janelle Stelson (D) / Scott Perry (R) · R +0.4 · normalized two-party margin
Pennsylvania PA-08 HousePaige Cognetti (D) / Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-16 – 2026-10-22402 · Likely voters	D 50.53% / R 46.48%Model pair: Paige Cognetti (D) / Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R) · D +4.2 · normalized two-party margin
Pennsylvania PA-07 HouseBob Brooks (D) / Ryan E. Mackenzie (R)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-16 – 2026-10-22401 · Likely voters	D 49.25% / R 44.15%Model pair: Bob Brooks (D) / Ryan E. Mackenzie (R) · D +5.5 · normalized two-party margin
Pennsylvania PA-01 HouseBob Harvie (D) / Brian Fitzpatrick (R)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-16 – 2026-10-22400 · Likely voters	D 48.26% / R 45.83%Model pair: Bob Harvie (D) / Brian Fitzpatrick (R) · D +2.6 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Targoz Market Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-20 – 2026-10-221,118 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 46%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +3.2 · normalized two-party margin
Indiana IN-05 HouseVictoria Spartz (R) / J.D. Ford (D)	Quantus Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-21 – 2026-10-22634 · Likely voters	R 47.4% / D 44.6%Model pair: J.D. Ford (D) / Victoria Spartz (R) · R +3.0 · normalized two-party margin
Virginia VA-01 HouseShannon Taylor (D) / Robert Wittman (R)	Public Policy Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-21 – 2026-10-22570 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 46%Model pair: Shannon Taylor (D) / Robert Wittman (R) · D +1.1 · normalized two-party margin
South Carolina SC-01 HouseNancy Lacore (D) / Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R)	Public Policy Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-21 – 2026-10-22770 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 45%Model pair: Nancy Lacore (D) / Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R) · D +2.2 · normalized two-party margin
Florida FL-25 HouseJared Moskowitz (D) / Scott Singer (R)	Public Policy Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-10-21 – 2026-10-22592 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 42%D +5.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) / Gregory Levy (I) / Bill Redpath (LIB)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-21 – 2026-10-221,200 · Likely voters	D 46.7% / R 44.4% / I 1.7% / LIB 1.4%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +2.3 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) / Walter Kristy (NAT) / Lydia Christensen (LIB) / Timothy Long (CON) / Douglas Marsh (GRE)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-21 – 2026-10-221,200 · Likely voters	D 47.2% / R 46% / NAT 1.4% / LIB 1.1% / CON 0.9% / GRE 0.7%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +1.2 · reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateAshley Hinson (R) / Josh Turek (D) / Thomas Laehn (LIB)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-21 – 2026-10-221,200 · Likely voters	R 47% / D 45.5% / LIB 3.1%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · R +1.5 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	Glengariff Group, Inc. ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-19 – 2026-10-22600 · Likely voters	D 51.4% / R 45.1%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +6.3 · reported percentage-point margin
Nebraska SenateDan Osborn (I) / Pete Ricketts (R)	GBAO ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-18 – 2026-10-22800 · Likely voters	I 46% / R 45%Model pair: Dan Osborn (I) / Pete Ricketts (R) · I +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas TX-09 HouseAlex Mealer (R) / Leticia Gutierrez (D)	DCCC Targeting Team ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-10-20 – 2026-10-22490 · Likely voters	R 48% / D 47%R +1.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Mississippi SenateCindy Hyde-Smith (R) / Scott Colom (D) / Ty Pinkins (I)	Change Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-21 – 2026-10-22842 · Likely voters	R 43% / D 40% / I 6%Model pair: Scott Colom (D) / Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) · R +3.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-13 – 2026-10-211,000 · Registered voters	D 50% / R 45%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +5.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio OH-01 HouseGreg Landsman (D) / Eric Conroy (R) / Nathan Weise (LIB)	Quantus Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-19 – 2026-10-21561 · Likely voters	D 47.6% / R 43.9% / LIB 0.7%No two-party model margin
Montana MT-02 HouseTroy Downing (R) / Brian Miller (D) / Michael Eisenhauer (I) / Patrick McCracken (LIB)	Montana State University Billings ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-05 – 2026-10-21350 · Adults	R 29% / D 18% / I 15% / LIB 2%Model pair: Brian Miller (D) / Troy Downing (R) · R +23.4 · normalized two-party margin
Montana MT-01 HouseSam Forstag (D) / Aaron Flint (R) / Nick Sheedy (LIB)	Montana State University Billings ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-05 – 2026-10-21287 · Adults	D 49% / R 32% / LIB 4%Model pair: Sam Forstag (D) / Aaron Flint (R) · D +21.0 · normalized two-party margin
Montana SenateKurt Alme (R) / Seth Bodnar (I) / Alani Bankhead (D) / Kyle Austin (LIB) / Jami Woodman (NPA)	Montana State University Billings ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-05 – 2026-10-21720 · Adults	R 30% / I 26% / D 21% / LIB 3% / NPA 1%Model pair: Seth Bodnar (I) / Kurt Alme (R) · R +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
South Carolina SenateAnnie Andrews (D) / Darline Graham (R)	Impact Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-15 – 2026-10-21800 · Likely voters	D 45% / R 44%Model pair: Annie Andrews (D) / Darline Graham (R) · D +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
South Dakota SenateMike Rounds (R) / Brian Bengs (I)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-19 – 2026-10-21803 · Likely voters	R 54% / I 46%Model pair: Brian Bengs (I) / Mike Rounds (R) · R +8.0 · reported percentage-point margin
California CA-04 HouseEric Jones (D) / Mike Thompson (D)	David Binder Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-10-15 – 2026-10-21600 · Likely voters	D 45% / D 35%No two-party model margin
Colorado CO-03 HouseDwayne Romero (D) / Jeff Hurd (R)	DCCC Targeting Team ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-20 – 2026-10-21402 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 46%Model pair: Dwayne Romero (D) / Jeff Hurd (R) · D +1.1 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Clarity Campaign Labs ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-15 – 2026-10-211,016 · Likely voters	D 52% / R 44%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +8.3 · normalized two-party margin
Washington WA-03 HouseMarie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) / John Braun (R)	Change Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-19 – 2026-10-21551 · Likely voters	D 45% / R 44%Model pair: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) / John Braun (R) · D +1.1 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	ActiVote ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-15 – 2026-10-211,000 · Likely voters	D 53.7% / R 46.3%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +7.4 · normalized two-party margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	ActiVote ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-17 – 2026-10-21400 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 49%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Florida SenateAshley Moody (R) / Angie Nixon (D) / Neil Gillespie (NPA)	co/efficient ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-18 – 2026-10-201,014 · Likely voters	R 48% / D 40% / NPA 2%Model pair: Angie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R) · R +8.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-19 – 2026-10-201,312 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 43%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +7.5 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-19 – 2026-10-201,496 · Registered voters	D 45% / R 40%D +5.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-19 – 2026-10-201,179 · Likely voters	D 52% / R 43%D +9.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Colorado SenateJohn Hickenlooper (D) / Mark Baisley (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-09 – 2026-10-20710 · Likely voters	D 57% / R 39%Model pair: John Hickenlooper (D) / Mark Baisley (R) · D +18.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) / Ted Brown (LIB)	Verasight ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-01 – 2026-10-20601 · Registered voters	D 46.1% / R 45.3% / LIB 1.5%No two-party model margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) / Ted Brown (LIB)	Verasight ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-01 – 2026-10-20601 · Likely voters	D 47.6% / R 45.2% / LIB 1.4%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +2.4 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) / Bill Redpath (LIB) / Gregory Levy (I)	Verasight ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-01 – 2026-10-20535 · Registered voters	D 45.7% / R 43.8% / LIB 1.2% / I 1.1%No two-party model margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) / Bill Redpath (LIB) / Gregory Levy (I)	Verasight ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-01 – 2026-10-20531 · Likely voters	D 47.5% / R 43.6% / LIB 1.1% / I 1%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +3.9 · reported percentage-point margin
California CA-48 HouseMarni von Wilpert (D) / Jim Desmond (R)	Tarrance Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-10-17 – 2026-10-20410 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 44%D +3.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
New Hampshire NH-02 HouseMaggie Goodlander (D) / Lily Tang Williams (R)	St. Anselm ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-19 – 2026-10-20811 · Likely voters	D 54% / R 38%Model pair: Maggie Goodlander (D) / Lily Tang Williams (R) · D +17.4 · normalized two-party margin
New Hampshire NH-01 HouseStefany Shaheen (D) / Anthony DiLorenzo (R)	St. Anselm ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-19 – 2026-10-20861 · Likely voters	D 46% / R 42%Model pair: Stefany Shaheen (D) / Anthony DiLorenzo (R) · D +4.5 · normalized two-party margin
New Hampshire SenateChris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R)	St. Anselm ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-19 – 2026-10-201,672 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 43%Model pair: Chris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R) · D +7.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Colorado CO-05 HouseJeff Crank (R) / Jessica Killin (D)	Public Policy Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-19 – 2026-10-20577 · Likely voters	R 47% / D 47%Model pair: Jessica Killin (D) / Jeff Crank (R) · Even · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	Pennsylvania State University McCourtney Institute for Democracy/YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-14 – 2026-10-20724 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 43% / OTH 2%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +4.4 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Morning Consult ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-13 – 2026-10-202,050 · Registered voters	D 48% / R 42%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +6.7 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	Marist University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-19 – 2026-10-201,289 · Likely voters	D 52% / R 44% / OTH 2%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +8.3 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	Marist University ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-19 – 2026-10-201,289 · Registered voters	D 52% / R 42% / OTH 2%No two-party model margin
Nebraska SenatePete Ricketts (R) / Dan Osborn (I)	Impact Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-14 – 2026-10-20600 · Likely voters	R 50% / I 48%Model pair: Dan Osborn (I) / Pete Ricketts (R) · R +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Nebraska SenatePete Ricketts (R) / Dan Osborn (I)	Impact Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-10-14 – 2026-10-20600 · Likely voters	R 49% / I 47%R +2.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) / Shannon Bray (LIB) / Michael Dublin (GRE)	High Point University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-01 – 2026-10-20620 · Likely voters	D 54% / R 40% / LIB 2% / GRE 1%Model pair: Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) · D +14.0 · reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) / Shannon Bray (LIB) / Michael Dublin (GRE)	Harper Polling ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-18 – 2026-10-20600 · Likely voters	D 49.4% / R 39.1% / LIB 2.9% / GRE 1.9%Model pair: Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) · D +10.3 · reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R)	Harper Polling ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-18 – 2026-10-20600 · Likely voters	D 51.6% / R 42%D +9.6 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Focaldata ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-16 – 2026-10-201,648 · Registered voters	D 50.78% / R 41.44%D +9.3 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Focaldata ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-16 – 2026-10-201,845 · Adults	D 49.15% / R 39.95%D +9.2 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Focaldata ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-16 – 2026-10-201,549 · Likely voters	D 53.03% / R 43.99%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +9.3 · normalized two-party margin
Kansas KS-02 HouseDerek Schmidt (R) / Don Coover (D)	DCCC Targeting Team ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-19 – 2026-10-20639 · Likely voters	R 49% / D 46%Model pair: Don Coover (D) / Derek Schmidt (R) · R +3.2 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Bedrock Polling ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-14 – 2026-10-201,279 · Registered voters	D 52% / R 44%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +8.3 · normalized two-party margin
Maine SenateSusan Collins (R) / Troy Jackson (D)	Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-16 – 2026-10-201,514 · Likely voters	R 49% / D 49%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · Even · reported percentage-point margin
Maine SenateTroy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)	Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-16 – 2026-10-201,689 · Registered voters	D 50% / R 48%D +2.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R)	ActiVote ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-08 – 2026-10-20400 · Likely voters	D 56.9% / R 43.1%Model pair: Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) · D +13.8 · reported percentage-point margin
Illinois SenateJuliana Stratton (D) / Don Tracy (R)	ActiVote ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-26 – 2026-10-20400 · Likely voters	D 58.5% / R 41.5%Model pair: Juliana Stratton (D) / Don Tracy (R) · D +17.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Georgia SenateJon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R)	ActiVote ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-06 – 2026-10-20400 · Likely voters	D 54% / R 46%Model pair: Jon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R) · D +8.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateAshley Hinson (R) / Josh Turek (D) / Thomas Laehn (LIB)	co/efficient ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-15 – 2026-10-19863 · Likely voters	R 48% / D 45% / LIB 2%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · R +3.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Verasight ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-13 – 2026-10-191,824 · Likely voters	D 54% / R 42%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +12.5 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Verasight ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-13 – 2026-10-191,824 · Registered voters	D 52% / R 41%D +11.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Verasight ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-13 – 2026-10-192,028 · Adults	D 50% / R 40%D +10.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Florida SenateAshley Moody (R) / Angie Nixon (D)	University of North Florida ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-12 – 2026-10-191,471 · Likely voters	R 49% / D 45%Model pair: Angie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R) · R +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
California CA-11 HouseScott Wiener (D) / Connie Chan (D)	USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-16 – 2026-10-19454 · Likely voters	D 51% / D 44%No two-party model margin
New Hampshire SenateChris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R) / Edmond Laplante (CON)	UMass Lowell ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-02 – 2026-10-19600 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 41% / CON 4%Model pair: Chris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R) · D +7.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas TX-35 HouseCarlos De La Cruz (R) / Johnny Garcia (D)	The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-14 – 2026-10-19605 · Likely voters	R 48% / D 47%R +1.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Texas TX-34 HouseVicente Gonzalez (D) / Eric Flores (R) / Eddie Espinoza (GRE) / Chris Royal (LIB)	The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-14 – 2026-10-19626 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 43% / GRE 2% / LIB 1%No two-party model margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-12 – 2026-10-193,494 · Likely voters	D 51.73% / R 41.22%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +11.3 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-12 – 2026-10-193,494 · Registered voters	D 50.86% / R 39.32%D +11.5 · Reported percentage-point margin
South Dakota SenateMike Rounds (R) / Brian Bengs (I)	Quantus Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-17 – 2026-10-19657 · Likely voters	R 59.4% / I 37.3%Model pair: Brian Bengs (I) / Mike Rounds (R) · R +22.1 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-02 – 2026-10-191,000 · Adults	D 44.8% / R 41%D +3.8 · Reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-02 – 2026-10-19836 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 45.5%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +2.5 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	Ipsos ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-16 – 2026-10-191,279 · Registered voters	D 47% / R 35% / OTH 3%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +14.6 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	Ipsos ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-16 – 2026-10-191,679 · Adults	D 40% / R 29% / OTH 3%No two-party model margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) / Ted Brown (LIB)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-17 – 2026-10-191,000 · Likely voters	D 49.37% / R 47.83% / LIB 2.8%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +1.5 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	Echelon Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-15 – 2026-10-191,010 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 45% / OTH 1%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +5.3 · normalized two-party margin
Florida FL-07 HouseGeneric Republican (R) / Generic Democrat (D)	DCCC Targeting Team ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-10-17 – 2026-10-19414 · Likely voters	R 47% / D 44%R +3.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Florida FL-07 HouseBale Dalton (D) / Ryan Elijah (R)	DCCC Targeting Team ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-10-17 – 2026-10-19414 · Likely voters	D 45% / R 45%Even · Reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-15 – 2026-10-191,398 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 49%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · Even · reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-15 – 2026-10-192,011 · Registered voters	D 52% / R 46%D +6.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R)	Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-15 – 2026-10-192,005 · Registered voters	D 53% / R 46%D +7.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R)	Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-15 – 2026-10-191,592 · Likely voters	D 52% / R 47%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +5.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Massachusetts SenateEd Markey (D) / John Deaton (R) / Philip Devincentis (IAP) / Morgan Dawicki (I) / Shiva Ayyadurai (I) / Joe Tache (PSL)	UMass Lowell ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-07 – 2026-10-18850 · Likely voters	D 55% / R 26% / IAP 2% / I 1% / I 1% / PSL 0%Model pair: Ed Markey (D) / John Deaton (R) · D +29.0 · reported percentage-point margin
South Carolina SenateDarline Graham (R) / Annie Andrews (D) / Kasie Whitener (LIB) / Mark Hackett (CON)	Trafalgar Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-16 – 2026-10-181,095 · Likely voters	R 48.6% / D 45.6% / LIB 3.9% / CON 0.8%Model pair: Annie Andrews (D) / Darline Graham (R) · R +3.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Massachusetts SenateEd Markey (D) / John Deaton (R) / Joe Tache (PSL) / Shiva Ayyadurai (I)	Suffolk University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-14 – 2026-10-18500 · Likely voters	D 60% / R 31.8% / PSL 1.4% / I 0.8%Model pair: Ed Markey (D) / John Deaton (R) · D +28.2 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) / Ted Brown (LIB)	Slingshot Strategies ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-15 – 2026-10-18969 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 47% / LIB 2%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Montana SenateKurt Alme (R) / Seth Bodnar (I) / Alani Bankhead (D) / Kyle Austin (LIB)	Quantus Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-15 – 2026-10-18667 · Likely voters	R 45.6% / I 29.4% / D 21.2% / LIB 1.8%Model pair: Seth Bodnar (I) / Kurt Alme (R) · R +16.2 · reported percentage-point margin
Nebraska SenatePete Ricketts (R) / Dan Osborn (I) / Chuck Conboy (America First Party) / Mike Marvin (LMN) / Robin Richards (Nebraska Working People Party)	National Public Affairs ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-15 – 2026-10-18598 · Likely voters	R 46% / I 43% / America First Party 2% / LMN 2% / Nebraska Working People Party 1%Model pair: Dan Osborn (I) / Pete Ricketts (R) · R +3.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Nebraska SenatePete Ricketts (R) / Dan Osborn (I)	National Public Affairs ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-10-15 – 2026-10-18598 · Likely voters	R 50% / I 47%R +3.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Morning Consult ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-12 – 2026-10-1817,706 · Likely voters	D 50.44% / R 43.14%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +7.8 · normalized two-party margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R)	Marist University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-15 – 2026-10-181,176 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 44%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R)	Marist University ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-15 – 2026-10-181,176 · Registered voters	D 51% / R 42%D +9.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	Marist University ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-15 – 2026-10-181,185 · Registered voters	D 52% / R 45%D +7.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	Marist University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-15 – 2026-10-181,185 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 48%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-14 – 2026-10-181,000 · Registered voters	D 52% / R 45%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +7.2 · normalized two-party margin
Colorado CO-05 HouseGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Global Strategy Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-14 – 2026-10-18500 · Likely voters	D 44% / R 44%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · Even · normalized two-party margin
Colorado CO-05 HouseJessica Killin (D) / Jeff Crank (R) / Christopher Mitchell (CON) / Mark G. Elworth (LIB)	Global Strategy Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-10-14 – 2026-10-18500 · Likely voters	D 43% / R 38% / CON 4% / LIB 3%No two-party model margin
Colorado CO-05 HouseJessica Killin (D) / Jeff Crank (R)	Global Strategy Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-10-14 – 2026-10-18500 · Likely voters	D 46% / R 44%D +2.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Nebraska SenateDan Osborn (I) / Pete Ricketts (R)	Concord Public Opinion Partners ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-15 – 2026-10-18500 · Likely voters	I 48% / R 41%Model pair: Dan Osborn (I) / Pete Ricketts (R) · I +7.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Change Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-12 – 2026-10-182,240 · Registered voters	D 50% / R 39%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +12.4 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	CNN/SSRS ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-15 – 2026-10-181,206 · Registered voters	D 49% / R 39%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +11.4 · normalized two-party margin
Ohio SenateJon Husted (R) / Sherrod Brown (D)	ActiVote ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-26 – 2026-10-18400 · Likely voters	R 50.2% / D 49.8%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · R +0.4 · reported percentage-point margin
Georgia SenateJon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R)	Quantus Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-15 – 2026-10-17755 · Likely voters	D 52.7% / R 45.4%Model pair: Jon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R) · D +7.3 · reported percentage-point margin
Alabama SenateBarry Moore (R) / Everett Wess (D)	Cygnal Political ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-16 – 2026-10-17500 · Likely voters	R 49.8% / D 35%Model pair: Everett Wess (D) / Barry Moore (R) · R +14.8 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-08 – 2026-10-161,458 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 49%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Alabama SenateBarry Moore (R) / Everett Wess (D)	The Alabama Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-15 – 2026-10-16600 · Likely voters	R 56% / D 35%Model pair: Everett Wess (D) / Barry Moore (R) · R +21.0 · reported percentage-point margin
South Dakota SenateMike Rounds (R) / Brian Bengs (I)	Public Opinion Strategies ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-12 – 2026-10-16500 · Likely voters	R 54% / I 37%Model pair: Brian Bengs (I) / Mike Rounds (R) · R +17.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Alaska AK-01 HouseNick Begich (R) / Bill Hill (I) / Eric Hafner (D) / Jim C. McDermott (LIB)	Data for Progress ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-08 – 2026-10-16694 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	R 48% / I 42% / D 5% / LIB 1%No two-party model margin
Alaska AK-01 HouseNick Begich (R) / Bill Hill (I) / Eric Hafner (D) / Jim C. McDermott (LIB)	Data for Progress ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-08 – 2026-10-16668 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	R 50% / I 43% / D 5% / LIB 1%No two-party model margin
Alaska AK-01 HouseNick Begich (R) / Bill Hill (I)	Data for Progress ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-08 – 2026-10-16659 · Likely votersFinal ranked-choice round	R 51% / I 49%R +2.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Alaska SenateMary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R) / Dan J. Sullivan (R) / Gerald Heikes (R)	Data for Progress ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-08 – 2026-10-16675 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	D 49% / R 46% / R 4% / R 1%No two-party model margin
Alaska SenateMary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R)	Data for Progress ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-08 – 2026-10-16671 · Likely votersFinal ranked-choice round	D 51% / R 49%Model pair: Mary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R) · D +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Alaska SenateMary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R) / Dan J. Sullivan (R) / Gerald Heikes (R)	Data for Progress ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-08 – 2026-10-16694 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	D 47% / R 44% / R 4% / R 1%No two-party model margin
Georgia SenateJon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R)	University of Georgia ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-07 – 2026-10-151,000 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 40%Model pair: Jon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R) · D +8.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Minnesota SenatePeggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) / Rebecca Whiting (LIB) / Marisa Simonetti (I)	Trafalgar Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-13 – 2026-10-151,079 · Likely voters	D 48.1% / R 44.6% / LIB 1.1% / I 0.8%Model pair: Peggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) · D +3.5 · reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateAshley Hinson (R) / Josh Turek (D) / Thomas Laehn (LIB)	Trafalgar Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-13 – 2026-10-151,094 · Likely voters	R 45.9% / D 44.2% / LIB 3.5%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · R +1.7 · reported percentage-point margin
Idaho SenateJames Risch (R) / Todd Achilles (I) / Natalie Fleming (I) / Matt Loesby (LIB)	Peak Insights ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-13 – 2026-10-15500 · Likely voters	R 54% / I 27% / I 3% / LIB 2%Model pair: Todd Achilles (I) / James Risch (R) · R +27.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Florida FL-25 HouseScott Singer (R) / Jared Moskowitz (D)	National Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-10-12 – 2026-10-15400 · Likely voters	R 49% / D 42%R +7.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Pennsylvania PA-07 HouseBob Brooks (D) / Ryan E. Mackenzie (R)	Muhlenberg College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-06 – 2026-10-15529 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 43%Model pair: Bob Brooks (D) / Ryan E. Mackenzie (R) · D +6.5 · normalized two-party margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	Cor Strategies ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-10 – 2026-10-151,409 · Likely voters	D 44% / R 40%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Florida SenateAshley Moody (R) / Angie Nixon (D)	ActiVote ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-27 – 2026-10-15400 · Likely voters	R 53.1% / D 46.9%Model pair: Angie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R) · R +6.2 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) / Ted Brown (LIB)	University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-10 – 2026-10-142,000 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 46% / LIB 3%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Maine ME-02 HouseMatt Dunlap (D) / Paul LePage (R)	Tulchin Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-12 – 2026-10-14500 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 46%Model pair: Matt Dunlap (D) / Paul LePage (R) · D +4.2 · normalized two-party margin
South Dakota SD-01 HouseMarty Jackley (R) / Nikki Gronli (D)	Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-12 – 2026-10-14500 · Likely voters	R 59.6% / D 31.8%Model pair: Nikki Gronli (D) / Marty Jackley (R) · R +30.4 · normalized two-party margin
South Dakota SenateMike Rounds (R) / Brian Bengs (I)	Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-12 – 2026-10-14500 · Likely voters	R 56.4% / I 37.4%Model pair: Brian Bengs (I) / Mike Rounds (R) · R +19.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateKen Paxton (R) / James Talarico (D) / Ted Brown (LIB)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-13 – 2026-10-141,200 · Likely voters	R 48.5% / D 48.1% / LIB 2.4%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · R +0.4 · reported percentage-point margin
Maine SenateTroy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-13 – 2026-10-141,200 · Likely voters	D 49.3% / R 46.8%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · D +2.5 · reported percentage-point margin
Kansas SenateRoger Marshall (R) / Adam Hamilton (D) / David Graham (LIB)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-13 – 2026-10-141,200 · Likely voters	R 47.7% / D 46.6% / LIB 3.4%Model pair: Adam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R) · R +1.1 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas TX-35 HouseJohnny Garcia (D) / Carlos De La Cruz (R)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-12 – 2026-10-14417 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 49%D +2.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Pennsylvania PA-08 HousePaige Cognetti (D) / Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-12 – 2026-10-14396 · Likely voters	D 52% / R 48%Model pair: Paige Cognetti (D) / Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R) · D +4.0 · normalized two-party margin
North Carolina NC-11 HouseJamie Ager (D) / Jennifer Balkcom (R)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-12 – 2026-10-14388 · Likely voters	D 56% / R 43%D +13.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Montana MT-01 HouseSam Forstag (D) / Aaron Flint (R)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-12 – 2026-10-14329 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 46%Model pair: Sam Forstag (D) / Aaron Flint (R) · D +4.2 · normalized two-party margin
Missouri MO-02 HouseFred Wellman (D) / Ann Wagner (R)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-12 – 2026-10-14401 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 46%Model pair: Fred Wellman (D) / Ann Wagner (R) · D +5.2 · normalized two-party margin
Michigan MI-07 HouseWilliam Lawrence (D) / Tom Barrett (R)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-12 – 2026-10-14314 · Likely voters	D 53% / R 45%Model pair: William Lawrence (D) / Tom Barrett (R) · D +8.2 · normalized two-party margin
Iowa IA-02 HouseLindsay James (D) / Joe Mitchell (R)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-12 – 2026-10-14344 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 47%Model pair: Lindsay James (D) / Joe Mitchell (R) · D +3.1 · normalized two-party margin
Florida FL-14 HouseKathy Castor (D) / Mike Beltran (R)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-12 – 2026-10-14315 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 43%D +5.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Arizona AZ-02 HouseJonathan Nez (D) / Eli Crane (R)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-12 – 2026-10-14345 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 48%Model pair: Jonathan Nez (D) / Eli Crane (R) · D +2.0 · normalized two-party margin
Arkansas AR-02 HouseFrench Hill (R) / Chris Jones (D)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-12 – 2026-10-14383 · Likely voters	R 52% / D 48%Model pair: Chris Jones (D) / French Hill (R) · R +4.0 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	ActiVote ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-04 – 2026-10-141,000 · Likely voters	D 53.3% / R 46.7%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +6.6 · normalized two-party margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	ActiVote ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-30 – 2026-10-14400 · Likely voters	D 51.9% / R 48.1%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +3.8 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	RMG Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-05 – 2026-10-132,000 · Registered voters	D 51% / R 43%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +8.5 · normalized two-party margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) / Ted Brown (LIB)	New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-09 – 2026-10-13934 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 44% / LIB 3%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +5.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) / Gregory Levy (I) / Bill Redpath (LIB)	New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-09 – 2026-10-13959 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 43% / I 4% / LIB 3%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +6.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateJosh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) / Thomas Laehn (LIB)	New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-09 – 2026-10-13602 · Likely voters	D 46% / R 44% / LIB 8%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · D +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Ipsos ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-09 – 2026-10-132,032 · Likely voters	D 52% / R 44%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +8.3 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Ipsos ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-09 – 2026-10-132,032 · Registered voters	D 50% / R 42%D +8.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Arkansas SenateTom Cotton (R) / Hallie Shoffner (D) / Jeff Wadlin (LIB)	Hendrix College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-08 – 2026-10-13709 · Likely voters	R 50% / D 41% / LIB 4.5%Model pair: Hallie Shoffner (D) / Tom Cotton (R) · R +9.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas TX-28 HouseHenry Cuellar (D) / Tano Tijerina (R)	DCCC Targeting Team ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-10-07 – 2026-10-13536 · Likely voters	D 54% / R 34%D +20.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Ohio OH-10 HouseKristina Knickerbocker (D) / Mike Turner (R) / Thomas McMasters (LIB)	DCCC Targeting Team ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-10-12 – 2026-10-13535 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 44% / LIB 4%No two-party model margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-10 – 2026-10-121,176 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 41%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +8.9 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-10 – 2026-10-121,021 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 40%D +11.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-10 – 2026-10-121,393 · Registered voters	D 46% / R 39%D +7.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Massachusetts SenateEd Markey (D) / John Deaton (R) / Shiva Ayyadurai (I) / Joe Tache (PSL)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-05 – 2026-10-12800 · Registered voters	D 56% / R 29% / I 6% / PSL 3%Model pair: Ed Markey (D) / John Deaton (R) · D +27.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateJosh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-06 – 2026-10-122,245 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 46%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · D +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Minnesota MN-01 HouseJake Johnson (D) / Brad Finstad (R)	SurveyUSA ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-04 – 2026-10-12565 · Likely voters	D 46% / R 44%Model pair: Jake Johnson (D) / Brad Finstad (R) · D +2.2 · normalized two-party margin
Minnesota SenatePeggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) / Marisa Simonetti (I) / Rebecca Whiting (LIB)	SurveyUSA ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-09 – 2026-10-12718 · Likely voters	D 45% / R 42% / I 2% / LIB 2%Model pair: Peggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) · D +3.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	SurveyMonkey ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-28 – 2026-10-1217,649 · Registered voters	D 55% / R 45%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +10.0 · normalized two-party margin
Montana SenateKurt Alme (R) / Seth Bodnar (I) / Alani Bankhead (D) / Kyle Austin (LIB)	Peak Insights ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-07 – 2026-10-12500 · Likely voters	R 44% / I 29% / D 12% / LIB 3%Model pair: Seth Bodnar (I) / Kurt Alme (R) · R +15.0 · reported percentage-point margin
New Hampshire SenateChris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R) / Edmond Laplante (CON)	National Public Affairs ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-08 – 2026-10-12600 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 43% / CON 4%Model pair: Chris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R) · D +7.0 · reported percentage-point margin
New Hampshire SenateChris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R)	National Public Affairs ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-10-08 – 2026-10-12600 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 45%D +5.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateAshley Hinson (R) / Josh Turek (D)	National Public Affairs ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-08 – 2026-10-12678 · Likely voters	R 48% / D 47%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · R +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateAshley Hinson (R) / Josh Turek (D) / Thomas Laehn (LIB)	National Public Affairs ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-10-08 – 2026-10-12678 · Likely voters	R 47% / D 44% / LIB 4%No two-party model margin
California CA-34 HouseAngela Gonzales-Torres (D) / Jimmy Gomez (D)	Center for Strategic Politics ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-10-08 – 2026-10-12416 · Likely voters	D 48% / D 38%No two-party model margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-09 – 2026-10-121,202 · Registered voters	D 54% / R 45%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +9.1 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	AP-NORC ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-08 – 2026-10-121,119 · Adults	D 43% / R 34%D +9.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	AP-NORC ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-08 – 2026-10-12925 · Registered voters	D 47% / R 38%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +10.6 · normalized two-party margin
Pennsylvania PA-10 HouseJanelle Stelson (D) / Scott Perry (R)	Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc. ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-05 – 2026-10-11300 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 46%Model pair: Janelle Stelson (D) / Scott Perry (R) · D +3.2 · normalized two-party margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R)	SurveyUSA ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-07 – 2026-10-11643 · Likely voters	D 54% / R 40%Model pair: Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) · D +14.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Maine SenateTroy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)	Suffolk University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-08 – 2026-10-11500 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 47%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · D +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateKen Paxton (R) / James Talarico (D) / Ted Brown (LIB)	Quantus Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-09 – 2026-10-11854 · Likely voters	R 47.2% / D 46.7% / LIB 2.2%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · R +0.5 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Morning Consult ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-05 – 2026-10-1117,654 · Likely voters	D 49.65% / R 43.07%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +7.1 · normalized two-party margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	Marist University ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-08 – 2026-10-111,196 · Registered voters	D 48% / R 44%D +4.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	Marist University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-08 – 2026-10-111,196 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 45%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateJosh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R)	Marist University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-08 – 2026-10-111,100 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 45%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · D +3.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateJosh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R)	Marist University ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-08 – 2026-10-111,100 · Registered voters	D 51% / R 44%D +7.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Rhode Island RI-02 HouseSeth M. Magaziner (D) / Victor Mellor (R)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-08 – 2026-10-11406 · Likely voters	D 55.18% / R 39.12%Model pair: Seth M. Magaziner (D) / Victor Mellor (R) · D +17.0 · normalized two-party margin
Rhode Island RI-01 HouseGabe Amo (D) / Kellie Keenan (R) / Pedro DeSouza (I)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-08 – 2026-10-11394 · Likely voters	D 53.93% / R 25.87% / I 6.14%Model pair: Gabe Amo (D) / Kellie Keenan (R) · D +35.2 · normalized two-party margin
Rhode Island SenateJack Reed (D) / Raymond McKay (R) / Michael Bahry (I)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-08 – 2026-10-11800 · Likely voters	D 59.13% / R 25.44% / I 6.87%Model pair: Jack Reed (D) / Raymond McKay (R) · D +33.7 · reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) / Michael Dublin (GRE) / Shannon Bray (LIB)	Trafalgar Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-08 – 2026-10-101,091 · Likely voters	D 48.8% / R 40.9% / GRE 2% / LIB 1.4%Model pair: Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) · D +7.9 · reported percentage-point margin
Florida SenateAshley Moody (R) / Angie Nixon (D)	MDW Communications ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-04 – 2026-10-102,351 · Likely voters	R 47.6% / D 42.4%Model pair: Angie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R) · R +5.2 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) / Lydia Christensen (LIB) / Timothy Long (CON) / Douglas Marsh (GRE)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-09 – 2026-10-101,200 · Likely voters	D 47.8% / R 45.5% / LIB 0.7% / CON 0.4% / GRE 0.2%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +2.3 · reported percentage-point margin
Kansas SenateAdam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R) / David Graham (LIB)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-09 – 2026-10-101,200 · Likely voters	D 47.5% / R 46.7% / LIB 3.4%Model pair: Adam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R) · D +0.8 · reported percentage-point margin
Alaska SenateMary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-09 – 2026-10-101,200 · Likely votersFinal ranked-choice round	D 50.1% / R 48%Model pair: Mary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R) · D +2.1 · reported percentage-point margin
Alaska SenateMary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R) / Gerald Heikes (R) / Dan J. Sullivan (R)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-09 – 2026-10-101,200 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	D 48.2% / R 42.6% / R 2.2% / R 1.7%No two-party model margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Cygnal Political ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-07 – 2026-10-101,500 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 42%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +9.7 · normalized two-party margin
Virginia VA-02 HouseElaine G. Luria (D) / Jen Kiggans (R)	Christopher Newport University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-01 – 2026-10-10702 · Likely voters	D 46% / R 43%Model pair: Elaine G. Luria (D) / Jen Kiggans (R) · D +3.4 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	TrueDot ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-05 – 2026-10-09974 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 42%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +7.7 · normalized two-party margin
Georgia SenateJon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R)	Trafalgar Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-07 – 2026-10-091,101 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 43%Model pair: Jon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R) · D +8.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Florida SenateAshley Moody (R) / Angie Nixon (D)	Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-01 – 2026-10-09716 · Likely voters	R 52% / D 41%Model pair: Angie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R) · R +11.0 · reported percentage-point margin
New Mexico NM-03 HouseTeresa Leger Fernandez (D) / Martin Ruben Zamora (R)	Research & Polling Inc. ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-01 – 2026-10-09362 · Likely voters	D 53% / R 39%Model pair: Teresa Leger Fernandez (D) / Martin Ruben Zamora (R) · D +15.2 · normalized two-party margin
New Mexico NM-02 HouseGabriel Vasquez (D) / Greg Cunningham (R)	Research & Polling Inc. ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-01 – 2026-10-09383 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 44%Model pair: Gabriel Vasquez (D) / Greg Cunningham (R) · D +4.3 · normalized two-party margin
New Mexico NM-01 HouseMelanie Ann Stansbury (D) / Ndidiamaka Okpareke (R)	Research & Polling Inc. ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-01 – 2026-10-09380 · Likely voters	D 53% / R 35%Model pair: Melanie Ann Stansbury (D) / Ndidiamaka Okpareke (R) · D +20.5 · normalized two-party margin
New Mexico SenateBen Ray Luján (D) / Larry Marker (R)	Research & Polling Inc. ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-01 – 2026-10-091,125 · Likely voters	D 53% / R 37%Model pair: Ben Ray Luján (D) / Larry Marker (R) · D +16.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) / Gregory Levy (I) / Bill Redpath (LIB)	Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-29 – 2026-10-091,000 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 42% / I 5% / LIB 3%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +6.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Georgia GA-07 HouseTony Kozycki (D) / Rich McCormick (R)	20/20 Insight ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-06 – 2026-10-09457 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 45%Model pair: Tony Kozycki (D) / Rich McCormick (R) · D +2.2 · normalized two-party margin
North Carolina NC-01 HouseLaurie Buckhout (R) / Don Davis (D) / Thomas Aaron Bailey (LIB)	co/efficient ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-10-06 – 2026-10-08623 · Likely voters	R 43% / D 42% / LIB 2%No two-party model margin
North Carolina NC-01 HouseGeneric Republican (R) / Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	co/efficient ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-10-06 – 2026-10-08623 · Likely voters	R 46% / D 45% / OTH 1%No two-party model margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) / Shannon Bray (LIB) / Michael Dublin (GRE)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-29 – 2026-10-08747 · Adults	D 53% / R 38% / LIB 2% / GRE 1%No two-party model margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) / Shannon Bray (LIB) / Michael Dublin (GRE)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-29 – 2026-10-08676 · Registered voters	D 51% / R 42% / LIB 2% / GRE 1%No two-party model margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) / Shannon Bray (LIB) / Michael Dublin (GRE)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-29 – 2026-10-08560 · Likely voters	D 54% / R 43% / LIB 2% / GRE 1%Model pair: Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) · D +11.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) / Ted Brown (LIB)	Trafalgar Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-06 – 2026-10-081,086 · Likely voters	D 47.1% / R 43.6% / LIB 1.8%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +3.5 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateMike Rogers (R) / Abdul El-Sayed (D)	The Tyson Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-06 – 2026-10-08600 · Likely voters	R 46% / D 44%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · R +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	ReconMR/Siena Research Institute ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-05 – 2026-10-08617 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 44%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Pennsylvania PA-01 HouseBob Harvie (D) / Brian Fitzpatrick (R)	Global Strategy Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-01 – 2026-10-081,032 · Likely voters	D 46% / R 46%Model pair: Bob Harvie (D) / Brian Fitzpatrick (R) · Even · normalized two-party margin
Rhode Island SenateJack Reed (D) / Raymond McKay (R) / Michael Bahry (I)	Embold Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-05 – 2026-10-08815 · Likely voters	D 55% / R 32% / I 4%Model pair: Jack Reed (D) / Raymond McKay (R) · D +23.0 · reported percentage-point margin
South Dakota SenateBrian Bengs (I) / Mike Rounds (R)	Concord Public Opinion Partners ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-06 – 2026-10-08400 · Likely voters	I 43% / R 42%Model pair: Brian Bengs (I) / Mike Rounds (R) · I +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Montana SenateSeth Bodnar (I) / Kurt Alme (R) / Alani Bankhead (D) / Kyle Austin (LIB)	Concord Public Opinion Partners ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-06 – 2026-10-08405 · Likely voters	I 37% / R 35% / D 13% / LIB 1%Model pair: Seth Bodnar (I) / Kurt Alme (R) · I +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Georgia GA-03 HouseBrian Jack (R) / Maura Keller (D)	VoteNexus ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-02 – 2026-10-07301 · Likely voters	R 50% / D 45%Model pair: Maura Keller (D) / Brian Jack (R) · R +5.3 · normalized two-party margin
Texas TX-09 HouseAlex Mealer (R) / Leticia Gutierrez (D)	University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-03 – 2026-10-07677 · Likely voters	R 48% / D 42%R +6.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
California CA-48 HouseMarni von Wilpert (D) / Jim Desmond (R)	SurveyUSA ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-01 – 2026-10-07518 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 38%D +9.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Florida SenateAshley Moody (R) / Angie Nixon (D)	St. Pete Polls ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-05 – 2026-10-07836 · Likely voters	R 46.8% / D 44.9%Model pair: Angie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R) · R +1.9 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Noble Predictive Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-05 – 2026-10-072,527 · Registered voters	D 47% / R 42%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +5.6 · normalized two-party margin
Minnesota SenatePeggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R)	Morning Consult ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-02 – 2026-10-071,000 · Registered voters	D 45% / R 41%Model pair: Peggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) · D +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Minnesota SenatePeggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R)	Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-05 – 2026-10-07800 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 43%Model pair: Peggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) · D +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) / Shannon Bray (LIB) / Michael Dublin (GRE)	Change Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-01 – 2026-10-07829 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 40% / LIB 2% / GRE 1%Model pair: Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) · D +10.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateJon Husted (R) / Sherrod Brown (D) / Gregory Levy (I) / Bill Redpath (LIB)	co/efficient ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-05 – 2026-10-06925 · Likely voters	R 44% / D 43% / I 3% / LIB 1%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · R +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateJon Husted (R) / Sherrod Brown (D)	co/efficient ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-05 – 2026-10-06925 · Likely voters	R 46% / D 45%R +1.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	The Honest Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-04 – 2026-10-06939 · Registered voters	D 52% / R 41%D +11.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	The Honest Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-04 – 2026-10-06780 · Likely voters	D 54% / R 42%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +12.5 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (I)	The Bullfinch Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-01 – 2026-10-061,000 · Registered voters	D 40% / R 36% / I 18%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +5.3 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (I)	The Bullfinch Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-10-01 – 2026-10-061,200 · Adults	D 38% / R 35% / I 18%No two-party model margin
New York NY-21 HouseBlake Gendebien (D) / Anthony Constantino (R) / Chris Schmidt (I)	Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-30 – 2026-10-06496 · Likely voters	D 46% / R 42% / I 5%Model pair: Blake Gendebien (D) / Anthony Constantino (R) · D +4.5 · normalized two-party margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) / Lydia Christensen (LIB) / Douglas Marsh (GRE) / Timothy Long (CON)	Quantus Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-05 – 2026-10-06744 · Likely voters	D 48.4% / R 47.2% / LIB 0.8% / GRE 0.7% / CON 0.3%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +1.2 · reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina NC-01 HouseGeneric Republican (R) / Generic Democrat (D)	Neighborhood Research Corporation ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-01 – 2026-10-06303 · Likely voters	R 44% / D 40%R +4.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina NC-01 HouseDon Davis (D) / Laurie Buckhout (R)	Neighborhood Research Corporation ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-01 – 2026-10-06303 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 41%D +10.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateAshley Hinson (R) / Josh Turek (D) / Thomas Laehn (LIB)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-05 – 2026-10-06650 · Likely voters	R 46.6% / D 45% / LIB 1.5%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · R +1.6 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-02 – 2026-10-051,173 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 40%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +12.1 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-02 – 2026-10-05995 · Likely voters	D 52% / R 40%D +12.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-02 – 2026-10-051,372 · Registered voters	D 47% / R 38%D +9.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-28 – 2026-10-053,623 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 44%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +6.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) / Ted Brown (LIB)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-25 – 2026-10-05861 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 47% / LIB 1%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +3.0 · reported percentage-point margin
New Hampshire SenateChris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-28 – 2026-10-051,519 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 43%Model pair: Chris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R) · D +8.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Florida SenateAshley Moody (R) / Angie Nixon (D)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-28 – 2026-10-053,812 · Likely voters	R 49% / D 44%Model pair: Angie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R) · R +5.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Maine SenateTroy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)	The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-30 – 2026-10-05800 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 46%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · D +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Nebraska NE-02 HouseDenise Powell (D) / Brinker Harding (R) / Eric Michael Foreman (LIB)	National Public Affairs ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-02 – 2026-10-05377 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 38% / LIB 6%Model pair: Denise Powell (D) / Brinker Harding (R) · D +13.6 · normalized two-party margin
Nebraska SenatePete Ricketts (R) / Dan Osborn (I) / Chuck Conboy (America First Party) / Mike Marvin (LMN) / Robin Richards (Nebraska Working People Party)	National Public Affairs ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-02 – 2026-10-05800 · Likely voters	R 46% / I 43% / America First Party 2% / LMN 2% / Nebraska Working People Party 2%Model pair: Dan Osborn (I) / Pete Ricketts (R) · R +3.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Nebraska SenatePete Ricketts (R) / Dan Osborn (I)	National Public Affairs ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-10-02 – 2026-10-05800 · Likely voters	R 49% / I 46%R +3.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	Ipsos ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-30 – 2026-10-054,506 · Adults	D 37% / R 30% / OTH 2%No two-party model margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	Ipsos ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-30 – 2026-10-053,526 · Registered voters	D 44% / R 37% / OTH 2%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +8.6 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Focaldata ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-02 – 2026-10-052,553 · Adults	D 47.26% / R 40.74%D +6.5 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Focaldata ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-02 – 2026-10-052,201 · Likely voters	D 52.27% / R 44.06%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +8.5 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Focaldata ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-02 – 2026-10-052,275 · Registered voters	D 49.15% / R 43.24%D +5.9 · Reported percentage-point margin
Kentucky KY-06 HouseZach Dembo (D) / Ralph Alvarado (R) / Jay Bowman (I) / Pete Lynch (KY)	DCCC Targeting Team ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-02 – 2026-10-05606 · Likely voters	D 46% / R 40% / I 5% / KY 1%Model pair: Zach Dembo (D) / Ralph Alvarado (R) · D +7.0 · normalized two-party margin
Kentucky KY-06 HouseZach Dembo (D) / Ralph Alvarado (R)	Change Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-29 – 2026-10-05524 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 38%Model pair: Zach Dembo (D) / Ralph Alvarado (R) · D +10.6 · normalized two-party margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R)	CNN/SSRS ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-29 – 2026-10-05760 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 43%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +6.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateAshley Hinson (R) / Josh Turek (D)	CNN/SSRS ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-29 – 2026-10-05801 · Likely voters	R 45% / D 43%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · R +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-22 – 2026-10-043,947 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 48%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Kansas SenateAdam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-24 – 2026-10-042,253 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 45%Model pair: Adam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R) · D +3.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-02 – 2026-10-041,000 · Likely voters	D 52% / R 43%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +9.5 · normalized two-party margin
Florida SenateAshley Moody (R) / Angie Nixon (D)	Targoz Market Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-28 – 2026-10-04847 · Likely voters	R 52% / D 42%Model pair: Angie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R) · R +10.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Florida SenateAshley Moody (R) / Angie Nixon (D)	Targoz Market Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-28 – 2026-10-041,171 · Registered voters	R 50% / D 38%R +12.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateJosh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) / Thomas Laehn (LIB)	Suffolk University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-01 – 2026-10-04500 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 43.6% / LIB 2.2%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · D +4.4 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	Pew Research Center ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-28 – 2026-10-043,917 · Registered voters	D 44% / R 36% / OTH 5%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +10.0 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Morning Consult ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-28 – 2026-10-0417,659 · Likely voters	D 49.88% / R 43.24%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +7.1 · normalized two-party margin
Maine SenateTroy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)	Marist University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-01 – 2026-10-041,505 · Registered voters	D 51% / R 47%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · D +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Kentucky KY-06 HouseZach Dembo (D) / Ralph Alvarado (R)	Lake Research Partners ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-30 – 2026-10-04400 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 45%Model pair: Zach Dembo (D) / Ralph Alvarado (R) · D +3.2 · normalized two-party margin
Kentucky KY-06 HouseZach Dembo (D) / Ralph Alvarado (R) / Jay Bowman (I) / Pete Lynch (KY)	Lake Research Partners ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-30 – 2026-10-04400 · Likely voters	D 46% / R 40% / I 3% / KY 1%No two-party model margin
Texas TX-02 HouseSteve Toth (R) / Shaun Finnie (D)	Impact Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-29 – 2026-10-04501 · Likely voters	R 46% / D 37%R +9.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
New York NY-21 HouseAnthony Constantino (R) / Blake Gendebien (D)	Impact Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-29 – 2026-10-04500 · Likely voters	R 48% / D 45%Model pair: Blake Gendebien (D) / Anthony Constantino (R) · R +3.2 · normalized two-party margin
Arkansas SenateTom Cotton (R) / Hallie Shoffner (D) / Jeff Wadlin (LIB)	GrayHouse ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-30 – 2026-10-04550 · Likely voters	R 50% / D 39% / LIB 4%Model pair: Hallie Shoffner (D) / Tom Cotton (R) · R +11.0 · reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina NC-01 HouseDon Davis (D) / Laurie Buckhout (R)	GQR ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-29 – 2026-10-04500 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 39%D +8.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Minnesota SenatePeggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R)	GQR ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-10-01 – 2026-10-04800 · Likely voters	D 53% / R 44%Model pair: Peggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) · D +9.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Minnesota SenatePeggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) / Marisa Simonetti (I) / Rebecca Whiting (LIB)	GQR ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-10-01 – 2026-10-04800 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 42% / I 4% / LIB 2%No two-party model margin
Kansas SenateAdam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R)	GBAO ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-30 – 2026-10-04600 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 44%Model pair: Adam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R) · D +5.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Kansas SenateAdam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R) / David Graham (LIB)	GBAO ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-30 – 2026-10-04600 · Likely voters	D 46% / R 41% / LIB 7%No two-party model margin
Nebraska SenateDan Osborn (I) / Pete Ricketts (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-24 – 2026-10-031,808 · Likely voters	I 48% / R 47%Model pair: Dan Osborn (I) / Pete Ricketts (R) · I +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) / Shannon Bray (LIB) / Michael Dublin (GRE)	East Carolina University Center for Survey Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-30 – 2026-10-03810 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 43% / LIB 1% / GRE 0%Model pair: Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) · D +7.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Alaska AK-01 HouseNick Begich (R) / Bill Hill (I) / Eric Hafner (D) / Jim C. McDermott (LIB)	Alaska Survey Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-01 – 2026-10-031,512 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	R 49.8% / I 39.9% / D 6.9% / LIB 3.4%No two-party model margin
Alaska AK-01 HouseNick Begich (R) / Bill Hill (I)	Alaska Survey Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-01 – 2026-10-031,512 · Likely votersFinal ranked-choice round	R 52.7% / I 47.3%R +5.4 · Reported percentage-point margin
Alaska SenateMary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R)	Alaska Survey Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-01 – 2026-10-031,512 · Likely votersFinal ranked-choice round	D 51% / R 49%Model pair: Mary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R) · D +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Alaska SenateMary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R) / Dan J. Sullivan (R) / Gerald Heikes (R)	Alaska Survey Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-10-01 – 2026-10-031,512 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	D 47% / R 45% / R 5% / R 3%No two-party model margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-30 – 2026-10-021,572 · Likely voters	D 54% / R 45%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +9.1 · normalized two-party margin
Ohio OH-01 HouseGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Torchlight Strategies ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-29 – 2026-10-02400 · Likely voters	D 45.3% / R 45.3%Even · Reported percentage-point margin
Ohio OH-01 HouseGreg Landsman (D) / Eric Conroy (R) / Nathan Weise (LIB)	Torchlight Strategies ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-29 – 2026-10-02400 · Likely voters	D 45.8% / R 44.2% / LIB 5.4%No two-party model margin
Florida FL-16 HouseSydney Gruters (R) / Kelly Kirschner (D)	Public Policy Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-10-01 – 2026-10-02530 · Registered voters	R 43% / D 39%R +4.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Cygnal Political ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-01 – 2026-10-021,500 · Likely voters	D 51.6% / R 42.5%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +9.7 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	ActiVote ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-22 – 2026-10-021,000 · Likely voters	D 52.2% / R 47.8%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +4.4 · normalized two-party margin
South Carolina SC-01 HouseJenny Costa Honeycutt (R) / Nancy Lacore (D) / Bill Reeside (LIB)	co/efficient ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-30 – 2026-10-01837 · Likely voters	R 46% / D 40% / LIB 4%Model pair: Nancy Lacore (D) / Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R) · R +7.0 · normalized two-party margin
South Carolina SC-01 HouseGeneric Republican (R) / Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	co/efficient ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-30 – 2026-10-01837 · Likely voters	R 53% / D 41% / OTH 1%No two-party model margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) / Lydia Christensen (LIB) / Douglas Marsh (GRE) / Timothy Long (CON) / Walter Kristy (NAT)	Z to A Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-28 – 2026-10-01483 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 42% / LIB 3% / GRE 0% / CON 0% / NAT 0%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +7.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Maine SenateSusan Collins (R) / Troy Jackson (D)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-23 – 2026-10-011,136 · Likely voters	R 50% / D 50%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · Even · reported percentage-point margin
Maine SenateTroy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)	Trafalgar Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-29 – 2026-10-011,091 · Likely voters	D 46.2% / R 45.9%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · D +0.3 · reported percentage-point margin
Kansas SenateAdam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R) / David Graham (LIB)	Trafalgar Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-29 – 2026-10-011,095 · Likely voters	D 44.4% / R 43.5% / LIB 2%Model pair: Adam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R) · D +0.9 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-22 – 2026-10-01616 · Likely voters	D 48.76% / R 46.09%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +2.7 · reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateAshley Hinson (R) / Josh Turek (D)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-22 – 2026-10-01606 · Likely voters	R 47.83% / D 46.96%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · R +0.9 · reported percentage-point margin
Alaska AK-01 HouseNick Begich (R) / Bill Hill (I)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-24 – 2026-10-01476 · Likely votersFinal ranked-choice round	R 53.04% / I 46.96%R +6.1 · Reported percentage-point margin
Alaska AK-01 HouseNick Begich (R) / Bill Hill (I) / Eric Hafner (D) / Jim C. McDermott (LIB)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-24 – 2026-10-01487 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	R 48.87% / I 36.78% / D 8.59% / LIB 5.76%No two-party model margin
Alaska AK-01 HouseNick Begich (R) / Bill Hill (I) / Eric Hafner (D) / Jim C. McDermott (LIB)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-24 – 2026-10-01504 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	R 46.59% / I 35.06% / D 8.19% / LIB 5.49%No two-party model margin
Alaska SenateMary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-24 – 2026-10-01504 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	D 50.07% / R 43.07%Model pair: Mary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R) · D +7.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	TIPP Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-29 – 2026-10-011,328 · Registered voters	D 46% / R 42%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +4.5 · normalized two-party margin
Illinois SenateJuliana Stratton (D) / Don Tracy (R)	Public Policy Polling ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-30 – 2026-10-01569 · Registered voters	D 49% / R 36%Model pair: Juliana Stratton (D) / Don Tracy (R) · D +13.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Connecticut CT-05 HouseJahana Hayes (D) / Chris Shea (R)	OnMessage Inc. ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-29 – 2026-10-01400 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 45%Model pair: Jahana Hayes (D) / Chris Shea (R) · D +6.2 · normalized two-party margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) / Lydia Christensen (LIB) / Walter Kristy (NAT) / Douglas Marsh (GRE) / Timothy Long (CON)	Mitchell Research & Communications ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-01682 · Likely voters	D 45.6% / R 41.4% / LIB 3% / NAT 2% / GRE 1% / CON 1%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +4.2 · reported percentage-point margin
Florida SenateAshley Moody (R) / Angie Nixon (D) / Neil Gillespie (NPA)	Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-28 – 2026-10-01625 · Likely voters	R 50% / D 40% / NPA 2%Model pair: Angie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R) · R +10.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Wisconsin WI-01 HouseMitchell Berman (D) / Bryan Steil (R)	Impact Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-28 – 2026-10-01500 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 47%Model pair: Mitchell Berman (D) / Bryan Steil (R) · D +1.1 · normalized two-party margin
Wisconsin WI-01 HouseGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Impact Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-28 – 2026-10-01500 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 48%D +1.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Tennessee TN-05 HouseCharlie Hatcher (R) / Chaz Molder (D)	Impact Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-28 – 2026-10-01552 · Likely voters	R 46% / D 41%R +5.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Arizona AZ-01 HouseAmish Shah (D) / Jay Feely (R)	FirstStrategic Communications and Public Affairs ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-10-01400 · Registered voters	D 44.4% / R 41.6%Model pair: Amish Shah (D) / Jay Feely (R) · D +3.3 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Centerline Research & Strategy ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-26 – 2026-10-01930 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 42%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +8.7 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Centerline Research & Strategy ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-26 – 2026-10-011,463 · Adults	D 43% / R 33%D +10.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Centerline Research & Strategy ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-26 – 2026-10-011,239 · Registered voters	D 49% / R 39%D +10.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Virginia VA-06 HouseBen Cline (R) / Beth Macy (D)	co/efficient ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-28 – 2026-09-30791 · Likely voters	R 59% / D 29%Model pair: Beth Macy (D) / Ben Cline (R) · R +34.1 · normalized two-party margin
Nebraska SenatePete Ricketts (R) / Dan Osborn (I) / Mike Marvin (LMN) / Robin Richards (Nebraska Working People Party) / Chuck Conboy (America First Party)	co/efficient ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-28 – 2026-09-301,113 · Likely voters	R 44% / I 40% / LMN 3% / Nebraska Working People Party 2% / America First Party 1%Model pair: Dan Osborn (I) / Pete Ricketts (R) · R +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Nebraska SenatePete Ricketts (R) / Dan Osborn (I)	co/efficient ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-28 – 2026-09-301,113 · Likely voters	R 47% / I 44%R +3.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Maine SenateSusan Collins (R) / Troy Jackson (D)	co/efficient ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-28 – 2026-09-301,240 · Likely voters	R 48% / D 46%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · R +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-18 – 2026-09-303,777 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 45%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Maine ME-02 HouseMatt Dunlap (D) / Paul LePage (R)	Tulchin Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-27 – 2026-09-30500 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 48%Model pair: Matt Dunlap (D) / Paul LePage (R) · D +2.0 · normalized two-party margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) / Lydia Christensen (LIB) / Timothy Long (CON) / Walter Kristy (NAT) / Douglas Marsh (GRE)	Trafalgar Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-28 – 2026-09-301,085 · Likely voters	D 46.9% / R 45.1% / LIB 1.6% / CON 0.9% / NAT 0.3% / GRE 0.1%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +1.8 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-21 – 2026-09-30615 · Likely voters	D 50.8% / R 45.09%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +5.7 · reported percentage-point margin
Kansas SenateRoger Marshall (R) / Adam Hamilton (D)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-22 – 2026-09-30605 · Likely voters	R 46.67% / D 46.39%Model pair: Adam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R) · R +0.3 · reported percentage-point margin
Kansas SenateAdam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R) / David Graham (LIB)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-22 – 2026-09-30605 · Likely voters	D 44.87% / R 44.76% / LIB 4.86%No two-party model margin
New Mexico SenateBen Ray Luján (D) / Larry Marker (R)	SurveyUSA ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-25 – 2026-09-30567 · Likely voters	D 54% / R 36%Model pair: Ben Ray Luján (D) / Larry Marker (R) · D +18.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Alaska SenateDan Sullivan (R) / Mary Peltola (D)	Quantus Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-28 – 2026-09-30758 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	R 46.5% / D 46.2%Model pair: Mary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R) · R +0.3 · reported percentage-point margin
Alaska SenateDan Sullivan (R) / Mary Peltola (D) / Dan J. Sullivan (R) / Gerald Heikes (R)	Quantus Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-28 – 2026-09-30758 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	R 46.8% / D 46.5% / R 1.6% / R 1.5%No two-party model margin
New York NY-18 HousePat Ryan (D) / Jackie Auringer (R)	Public Policy Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-29 – 2026-09-30561 · Registered voters	D 52% / R 35%Model pair: Pat Ryan (D) / Jackie Auringer (R) · D +19.5 · normalized two-party margin
New York NY-18 HouseGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Public Policy Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-29 – 2026-09-30561 · Registered voters	D 51% / R 42%D +9.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Idaho SenateJames Risch (R) / Todd Achilles (I) / Natalie Fleming (I) / Matt Loesby (LIB)	Peak Insights ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-28 – 2026-09-30500 · Likely voters	R 49% / I 24% / I 3% / LIB 2%Model pair: Todd Achilles (I) / James Risch (R) · R +25.0 · reported percentage-point margin
New York NY-17 HouseMike Lawler (R) / Cait Conley (D)	McLaughlin & Associates ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-28 – 2026-09-30400 · Likely voters	R 50% / D 47%Model pair: Cait Conley (D) / Mike Lawler (R) · R +3.1 · normalized two-party margin
Colorado SenateJohn Hickenlooper (D) / Mark Baisley (R)	Lake Research Partners ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-16 – 2026-09-30600 · Registered voters	D 52% / R 38%Model pair: John Hickenlooper (D) / Mark Baisley (R) · D +14.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Kentucky KY-06 HouseZach Dembo (D) / Ralph Alvarado (R)	GQR ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-25 – 2026-09-30401 · Likely voters	D 42% / R 37%Model pair: Zach Dembo (D) / Ralph Alvarado (R) · D +6.3 · normalized two-party margin
Minnesota SenatePeggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) / Marisa Simonetti (I) / Rebecca Whiting (LIB)	Big Data Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-29 – 2026-09-30622 · Likely voters	D 45.8% / R 43.6% / I 5.4% / LIB 5.2%Model pair: Peggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) · D +2.2 · reported percentage-point margin
New Hampshire SenateChris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R)	St. Anselm ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-28 – 2026-09-291,042 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 44%Model pair: Chris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R) · D +7.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateAshley Hinson (R) / Josh Turek (D)	Quantus Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-28 – 2026-09-29738 · Likely voters	R 51.2% / D 48.8%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · R +2.4 · reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateAshley Hinson (R) / Josh Turek (D) / Thomas Laehn (LIB)	Quantus Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-28 – 2026-09-29738 · Likely voters	R 48.5% / D 46.6% / LIB 1.7%No two-party model margin
Maine SenateTroy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)	Maine People's Resource Center ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-25 – 2026-09-29684 · Likely voters	D 49.3% / R 46.5%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · D +2.8 · reported percentage-point margin
South Carolina SenateDarline Graham (R) / Annie Andrews (D) / Mark Hackett (CON) / Kasie Whitener (LIB)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-28 – 2026-09-291,200 · Likely voters	R 46% / D 45% / CON 3% / LIB 2%Model pair: Annie Andrews (D) / Darline Graham (R) · R +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) / Bill Redpath (LIB) / Gregory Levy (I)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-28 – 2026-09-291,200 · Likely voters	D 43.8% / R 42.5% / LIB 4.1% / I 2.2%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +1.3 · reported percentage-point margin
Minnesota SenatePeggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) / Rebecca Whiting (LIB) / Marisa Simonetti (I)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-28 – 2026-09-291,200 · Likely voters	D 46% / R 45% / LIB 2% / I 1%Model pair: Peggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) · D +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
New York NY-17 HouseCait Conley (D) / Mike Lawler (R)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-27 – 2026-09-29400 · Likely voters	D 47.9% / R 45.6%Model pair: Cait Conley (D) / Mike Lawler (R) · D +2.5 · normalized two-party margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) / Shannon Bray (LIB) / Michael Dublin (GRE)	Big Data Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-27 – 2026-09-29698 · Registered voters	D 49.3% / R 37.8% / LIB 7.1% / GRE 5.8%No two-party model margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) / Shannon Bray (LIB) / Michael Dublin (GRE)	Big Data Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-27 – 2026-09-29642 · Likely voters	D 50.8% / R 38.5% / LIB 6.5% / GRE 4.2%Model pair: Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) · D +12.3 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-25 – 2026-09-281,423 · Registered voters	D 45% / R 37%D +8.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-25 – 2026-09-281,003 · Likely voters	D 53% / R 38%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +16.5 · normalized two-party margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) / Ted Brown (LIB)	University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-18 – 2026-09-28850 · Likely voters	D 45% / R 45% / LIB 2%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · Even · reported percentage-point margin
Virginia VA-05 HouseJohn McGuire (R) / Tom Perriello (D)	The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-23 – 2026-09-28600 · Likely voters	R 51% / D 45%Model pair: Tom Perriello (D) / John McGuire (R) · R +6.2 · normalized two-party margin
Virginia VA-01 HouseShannon Taylor (D) / Robert Wittman (R)	The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-23 – 2026-09-28609 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 46%Model pair: Shannon Taylor (D) / Robert Wittman (R) · D +4.2 · normalized two-party margin
Texas TX-15 HouseBobby Pulido (D) / Monica De La Cruz (R)	Normington, Petts & Associates ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-24 – 2026-09-28400 · Likely voters	D 54% / R 41%D +13.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Texas TX-15 HouseGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Normington, Petts & Associates ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-24 – 2026-09-28400 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 44%D +7.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	HarrisX/Harris Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-26 – 2026-09-282,200 · Registered voters	D 50% / R 50%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · Even · normalized two-party margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) / Ted Brown (LIB)	Guidant Polling and Strategy ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-20 – 2026-09-28800 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 44% / LIB 4%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +3.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-24 – 2026-09-28881 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 49%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-24 – 2026-09-281,203 · Registered voters	D 53% / R 46%D +7.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-24 – 2026-09-281,028 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 49%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-24 – 2026-09-281,203 · Registered voters	D 51% / R 48%D +3.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateJosh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R)	Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-24 – 2026-09-281,204 · Registered voters	D 50% / R 46%D +4.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateJosh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R)	Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-24 – 2026-09-281,008 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 47%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · D +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (I)	AlphaROC ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-25 – 2026-09-281,000 · Adults	D 43.4% / R 37.1% / I 6%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +7.8 · normalized two-party margin
South Dakota SenateMike Rounds (R) / Brian Bengs (I)	Zenith Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-24 – 2026-09-27500 · Likely voters	R 53% / I 47%Model pair: Brian Bengs (I) / Mike Rounds (R) · R +6.0 · reported percentage-point margin
New Hampshire SenateChris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R) / Edmond Laplante (CON)	Trafalgar Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-26 – 2026-09-271,082 · Likely voters	D 47.4% / R 40.5% / CON 1.1%Model pair: Chris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R) · D +6.9 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	The Tyson Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-24 – 2026-09-27600 · Likely voters	D 44% / R 43%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) / Bill Redpath (LIB) / Gregory Levy (I)	Suffolk University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-23 – 2026-09-27500 · Likely voters	D 46.6% / R 44% / LIB 2% / I 1%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +2.6 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Quinnipiac University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-24 – 2026-09-271,032 · Registered voters	D 51% / R 39%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +13.3 · normalized two-party margin
Texas SenateKen Paxton (R) / James Talarico (D)	Pulse Decision Science ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-24 – 2026-09-27800 · Likely voters	R 48% / D 45%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · R +3.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Morning Consult ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-21 – 2026-09-2718,786 · Likely voters	D 50.27% / R 42.81%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +8.0 · normalized two-party margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R)	Marist University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-24 – 2026-09-271,298 · Registered voters	D 51% / R 43%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +8.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	Marist University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-24 – 2026-09-271,235 · Registered voters	D 51% / R 44%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +7.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) / Lydia Christensen (LIB) / Timothy Long (CON) / Douglas Marsh (GRE) / Walter Kristy (NAT)	Guidant Polling and Strategy ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-20 – 2026-09-27800 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 43% / LIB 1% / CON 1% / GRE 0% / NAT 0%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +5.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	Guidant Polling and Strategy ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-20 – 2026-09-27800 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 45%D +4.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Washington WA-03 HouseJohn Braun (R) / Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)	DHM Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-17 – 2026-09-27543 · Likely voters	R 48% / D 47%Model pair: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) / John Braun (R) · R +1.1 · normalized two-party margin
Florida SenateAshley Moody (R) / Angie Nixon (D)	Change Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-25 – 2026-09-271,063 · Likely voters	R 48% / D 47%Model pair: Angie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R) · R +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R)	Big Data Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-26 – 2026-09-27680 · Likely voters	D 46.3% / R 42.6%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +3.7 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R)	Big Data Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-26 – 2026-09-27735 · Registered voters	D 45.2% / R 41.2%D +4.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) / Ted Brown (LIB)	Big Data Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-24 – 2026-09-26793 · Registered voters	D 46.4% / R 43.8% / LIB 9.8%No two-party model margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) / Ted Brown (LIB)	Big Data Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-24 – 2026-09-26698 · Likely voters	D 46.8% / R 44.9% / LIB 8.3%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +1.9 · reported percentage-point margin
Florida FL-21 HouseBrian Mast (R) / James Martin (D)	Upswing Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-21 – 2026-09-25402 · Likely voters	R 49% / D 38%R +11.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
South Carolina SenateDarline Graham (R) / Annie Andrews (D)	Trafalgar Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-23 – 2026-09-251,087 · Likely voters	R 43.4% / D 42.3%Model pair: Annie Andrews (D) / Darline Graham (R) · R +1.1 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	SSRS ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-18 – 2026-09-251,273 · Registered voters	D 44% / R 37%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +8.6 · normalized two-party margin
Alabama SenateBarry Moore (R) / Everett Wess (D)	RMG Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-21 – 2026-09-25800 · Registered voters	R 54% / D 33%Model pair: Everett Wess (D) / Barry Moore (R) · R +21.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Alaska SenateDan Sullivan (R) / Mary Peltola (D) / Dan J. Sullivan (R) / Gerald Heikes (R)	Trafalgar Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-22 – 2026-09-241,079 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	R 46.8% / D 45.5% / R 2.8% / R 0.7%No two-party model margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	Stratus Intelligence ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-22 – 2026-09-24865 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 48%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · Even · reported percentage-point margin
Utah UT-02 HouseBlake Moore (R) / Peter Crosby (D) / Daniel Cottam (LIB) / Robert Moesinger (NPA) / Carlton Bowen (IAP)	Lighthouse Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-10 – 2026-09-24515 · Registered voters	R 39% / D 34% / LIB 4.9% / NPA 4.9% / IAP 4.1%No two-party model margin
Colorado CO-04 HouseLauren Boebert (R) / Eileen Laubacher (D) / Douglas Mangeris (I)	Impact Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-21 – 2026-09-24403 · Likely voters	R 45% / D 40% / I 9%Model pair: Eileen Laubacher (D) / Lauren Boebert (R) · R +5.9 · normalized two-party margin
Ohio OH-15 HouseDon Leonard (D) / Mike Carey (R)	Hart Research Associates ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-22 – 2026-09-24500 · Likely voters	D 46% / R 45%D +1.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Ohio OH-15 HouseGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Hart Research Associates ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-22 – 2026-09-24500 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 47%D +1.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	GBAO ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-17 – 2026-09-242,000 · Registered voters	D 49% / R 41%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +8.9 · normalized two-party margin
Virginia VA-05 HouseGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Expedition Strategies ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-21 – 2026-09-24400 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 46%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +2.1 · normalized two-party margin
Virginia VA-05 HouseJohn McGuire (R) / Tom Perriello (D) / Cooke Harvey (I)	Expedition Strategies ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-21 – 2026-09-24400 · Likely voters	R 46% / D 45% / I 6%No two-party model margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Change Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-15 – 2026-09-242,021 · Registered voters	D 46% / R 39%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +8.2 · normalized two-party margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	Big Data Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-22 – 2026-09-24678 · Likely voters	D 46.7% / R 42.1%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +4.6 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	Big Data Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-22 – 2026-09-24725 · Registered voters	D 45.4% / R 41%D +4.4 · Reported percentage-point margin
Montana MT-01 HouseAaron Flint (R) / Sam Forstag (D) / Nick Sheedy (LIB)	American Pulse Research & Polling ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-19 – 2026-09-24314 · Likely voters	R 45.9% / D 45.4% / LIB 5.4%Model pair: Sam Forstag (D) / Aaron Flint (R) · R +0.5 · normalized two-party margin
Montana MT-01 HouseGeneric Republican (R) / Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	American Pulse Research & Polling ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-19 – 2026-09-24314 · Likely voters	R 45.8% / D 36.5% / OTH 9.5%No two-party model margin
Montana SenateKurt Alme (R) / Seth Bodnar (I) / Alani Bankhead (D) / Kyle Austin (LIB)	American Pulse Research & Polling ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-19 – 2026-09-24604 · Likely voters	R 45.1% / I 26.1% / D 18.9% / LIB 2.7%Model pair: Seth Bodnar (I) / Kurt Alme (R) · R +19.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	co/efficient ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-21 – 2026-09-23843 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 50%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · Even · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) / Lydia Christensen (LIB) / Douglas Marsh (GRE) / Timothy Long (CON)	co/efficient ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-21 – 2026-09-23843 · Likely voters	D 45% / R 45% / LIB 2% / GRE 0% / CON 0%No two-party model margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R)	Quantus Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-21 – 2026-09-23695 · Likely voters	D 47.6% / R 47.2%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +0.4 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) / Gregory Levy (I) / Bill Redpath (LIB)	Quantus Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-21 – 2026-09-23695 · Likely voters	D 47.3% / R 46.8% / I 2% / LIB 1.2%No two-party model margin
New York NY-23 HouseNick Langworthy (R) / Aaron Gies (D)	Public Policy Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-22 – 2026-09-23626 · Likely voters	R 52% / D 35%Model pair: Aaron Gies (D) / Nick Langworthy (R) · R +19.5 · normalized two-party margin
Maine SenateTroy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-22 – 2026-09-231,200 · Likely voters	D 46.4% / R 45.6%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · D +0.8 · reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateJosh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) / Thomas Laehn (LIB)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-22 – 2026-09-231,200 · Likely voters	D 47.4% / R 45.7% / LIB 1.6%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · D +1.7 · reported percentage-point margin
Georgia SenateJon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-22 – 2026-09-231,200 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 42%Model pair: Jon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R) · D +8.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Montana MT-01 HouseSam Forstag (D) / Aaron Flint (R) / Nick Sheedy (LIB)	Impact Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-20 – 2026-09-23500 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 44% / LIB 2%Model pair: Sam Forstag (D) / Aaron Flint (R) · D +3.3 · normalized two-party margin
Wisconsin WI-01 HouseBryan Steil (R) / Mitchell Berman (D)	DCCC Targeting Team ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-21 – 2026-09-23495 · Likely voters	R 48% / D 48%Model pair: Mitchell Berman (D) / Bryan Steil (R) · Even · normalized two-party margin
Ohio OH-09 HouseDerek Merrin (R) / Marcy Kaptur (D)	DCCC Targeting Team ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-22 – 2026-09-23481 · Likely voters	R 48% / D 48%Even · Reported percentage-point margin
Georgia SenateJon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R)	Big Data Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-21 – 2026-09-23678 · Likely voters	D 55.4% / R 44.6%Model pair: Jon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R) · D +10.8 · reported percentage-point margin
Georgia SenateJon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R)	Big Data Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-21 – 2026-09-23712 · Registered voters	D 55.4% / R 44.6%D +10.8 · Reported percentage-point margin
New Hampshire SenateChris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-15 – 2026-09-22613 · Likely voters	D 49.82% / R 44.82%Model pair: Chris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R) · D +5.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-15 – 2026-09-22605 · Likely voters	D 49.45% / R 44.5%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +5.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Maine SenateSusan Collins (R) / Troy Jackson (D)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-15 – 2026-09-22619 · Likely voters	R 48.66% / D 45.92%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · R +2.7 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	The Argument/Verasight ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-16 – 2026-09-221,603 · Likely voters	D 54.7% / R 45.3%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +9.4 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	The Argument/Verasight ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-16 – 2026-09-221,603 · Registered voters	D 52.8% / R 47.2%D +5.6 · Reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) / Ted Brown (LIB)	Slingshot Strategies ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-19 – 2026-09-221,007 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 44% / LIB 3%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +5.0 · reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) / Michael Dublin (GRE) / Shannon Bray (LIB)	Quantus Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-21 – 2026-09-22686 · Likely voters	D 48.4% / R 43.3% / GRE 0.8% / LIB 0.5%Model pair: Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) · D +5.1 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	McLaughlin & Associates ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-16 – 2026-09-221,000 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 43%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +5.5 · normalized two-party margin
Massachusetts SenateEd Markey (D) / John Deaton (R) / Shiva Ayyadurai (I) / Joe Tache (PSL)	MassINC Polling Group ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-14 – 2026-09-22800 · Likely voters	D 54% / R 28% / I 3% / PSL 2%Model pair: Ed Markey (D) / John Deaton (R) · D +26.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	GBAO ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-19 – 2026-09-22800 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 44%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Maine SenateTroy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)	Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-20 – 2026-09-22982 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 47%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · D +3.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-21 – 2026-09-221,000 · Likely voters	D 53.2% / R 41.9%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +11.9 · normalized two-party margin
Texas TX-10 HouseChris Gober (R) / Caitlin Rourk (D)	Change Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-18 – 2026-09-22613 · Likely voters	R 48% / D 41%R +7.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-18 – 2026-09-21975 · Likely voters	D 52% / R 38%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +15.6 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-18 – 2026-09-211,394 · Registered voters	D 45% / R 36%D +9.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Verasight ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-16 – 2026-09-211,528 · Adults	D 49% / R 41%D +8.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Verasight ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-16 – 2026-09-211,374 · Registered voters	D 50% / R 42%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +8.7 · normalized two-party margin
Vermont VT-01 HouseBecca Balint (D) / Gerald Malloy (R) / Suzanne Seymour (I) / Adam Ortiz (I) / Phoenix Altair (I) / Ryan Walton (I)	University of New Hampshire ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-17 – 2026-09-21830 · Likely voters	D 66% / R 30% / I 1% / I 0% / I 0% / I 0%Model pair: Becca Balint (D) / Gerald Malloy (R) · D +37.5 · normalized two-party margin
Rhode Island SenateJack Reed (D) / Raymond McKay (R) / Michael Bahry (I)	University of New Hampshire ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-17 – 2026-09-21595 · Likely voters	D 53% / R 33% / I 5%Model pair: Jack Reed (D) / Raymond McKay (R) · D +20.0 · reported percentage-point margin
New Hampshire NH-02 HouseMaggie Goodlander (D) / Lily Tang Williams (R) / Robbie Mahrou (I)	University of New Hampshire ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-17 – 2026-09-21694 · Likely voters	D 56% / R 35% / I 3%Model pair: Maggie Goodlander (D) / Lily Tang Williams (R) · D +23.1 · normalized two-party margin
New Hampshire NH-01 HouseStefany Shaheen (D) / Anthony DiLorenzo (R)	University of New Hampshire ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-17 – 2026-09-21707 · Likely voters	D 46% / R 42%Model pair: Stefany Shaheen (D) / Anthony DiLorenzo (R) · D +4.5 · normalized two-party margin
New Hampshire SenateChris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R) / Edmond Laplante (CON)	University of New Hampshire ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-17 – 2026-09-211,392 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 42% / CON 2%Model pair: Chris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R) · D +8.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Maine ME-02 HouseMatt Dunlap (D) / Paul LePage (R)	University of New Hampshire ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-17 – 2026-09-21622 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 45%Model pair: Matt Dunlap (D) / Paul LePage (R) · D +6.2 · normalized two-party margin
Maine ME-01 HouseChellie Pingree (D) / Ronald Russell (R)	University of New Hampshire ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-17 – 2026-09-21657 · Likely voters	D 57% / R 35%Model pair: Chellie Pingree (D) / Ronald Russell (R) · D +23.9 · normalized two-party margin
Maine SenateTroy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)	University of New Hampshire ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-17 – 2026-09-211,301 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 47%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · D +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Massachusetts SenateEd Markey (D) / John Deaton (R) / Joe Tache (PSL)	University of New Hampshire ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-17 – 2026-09-21556 · Likely voters	D 53% / R 30% / PSL 9%Model pair: Ed Markey (D) / John Deaton (R) · D +23.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Florida SenateAshley Moody (R) / Angie Nixon (D)	Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-14 – 2026-09-21830 · Likely voters	R 51% / D 40%Model pair: Angie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R) · R +11.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	KFF ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-16 – 2026-09-211,013 · Registered voters	D 45% / R 35%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +12.5 · normalized two-party margin
Florida SenateAshley Moody (R) / Angie Nixon (D) / Neil Gillespie (NPA)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-20 – 2026-09-21600 · Likely voters	R 49.3% / D 41.8% / NPA 2.4%Model pair: Angie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R) · R +7.5 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Impact Research/National Research Inc. ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-16 – 2026-09-211,500 · Registered voters	D 50% / R 42%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +8.7 · normalized two-party margin
Minnesota MN-01 HouseJake Johnson (D) / Brad Finstad (R)	GBAO ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-18 – 2026-09-21500 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 46%Model pair: Jake Johnson (D) / Brad Finstad (R) · D +1.1 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Echelon Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-17 – 2026-09-211,002 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 43%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +8.5 · normalized two-party margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) / Lydia Christensen (LIB) / Douglas Marsh (GRE) / Timothy Long (CON) / Walter Kristy (NAT)	Cygnal/Beacon Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-18 – 2026-09-21600 · Likely voters	D 45% / R 40% / LIB 1% / GRE 0% / CON 0% / NAT 0%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +5.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Vermont VT-01 HouseBecca Balint (D) / Gerald Malloy (R) / Suzanne Seymour (I) / Adam Ortiz (I) / Ryan Walton (I) / Phoenix Altair (I)	Braun Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-10 – 2026-09-21817 · Adults	D 43.28% / R 28.3% / I 1.94% / I 1.59% / I 0.8% / I 0.14%No two-party model margin
Vermont VT-01 HouseBecca Balint (D) / Gerald Malloy (R) / Suzanne Seymour (I) / Adam Ortiz (I) / Ryan Walton (I) / Phoenix Altair (I)	Braun Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-10 – 2026-09-21732 · Likely voters	D 46.92% / R 30.25% / I 1.9% / I 1.33% / I 0.51% / I 0.16%Model pair: Becca Balint (D) / Gerald Malloy (R) · D +21.6 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	ActiVote ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-11 – 2026-09-211,000 · Likely voters	D 52.8% / R 47.2%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +5.6 · normalized two-party margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) / Lydia Christensen (LIB) / Walter Kristy (NAT) / Douglas Marsh (GRE) / Timothy Long (CON)	Suffolk University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-16 – 2026-09-20500 · Likely voters	D 46.8% / R 39.6% / LIB 0.8% / NAT 0.6% / GRE 0.2% / CON 0.2%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +7.2 · reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R)	Opinion Diagnostics ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-17 – 2026-09-20857 · Likely voters	D 51.7% / R 43.5%Model pair: Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) · D +8.2 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Morning Consult ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-14 – 2026-09-2018,336 · Likely voters	D 49.74% / R 42.62%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +7.7 · normalized two-party margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	Marist University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-17 – 2026-09-201,139 · Registered voters	D 50% / R 44%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +6.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateJosh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R)	Marist University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-17 – 2026-09-201,050 · Registered voters	D 50% / R 42%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · D +8.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	Ipsos ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-17 – 2026-09-20979 · Registered voters	D 43% / R 35% / OTH 3%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +10.3 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	Ipsos ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-17 – 2026-09-201,277 · Adults	D 37% / R 29% / OTH 3%No two-party model margin
Oklahoma OK-05 HouseStephanie Bice (R) / Jena Nelson (D)	GBAO ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-17 – 2026-09-20500 · Likely voters	R 48% / D 43%Model pair: Jena Nelson (D) / Stephanie Bice (R) · R +5.5 · normalized two-party margin
Pennsylvania PA-10 HouseJanelle Stelson (D) / Scott Perry (R)	Franklin & Marshall College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-09 – 2026-09-20378 · Registered voters	D 47% / R 44%Model pair: Janelle Stelson (D) / Scott Perry (R) · D +3.3 · normalized two-party margin
Pennsylvania PA-07 HouseBob Brooks (D) / Ryan E. Mackenzie (R)	Franklin & Marshall College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-09 – 2026-09-20350 · Registered voters	D 45% / R 40%Model pair: Bob Brooks (D) / Ryan E. Mackenzie (R) · D +5.9 · normalized two-party margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R)	Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-17 – 2026-09-201,115 · Likely voters	D 53% / R 42%Model pair: Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) · D +11.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateMike Rogers (R) / Abdul El-Sayed (D)	Torchlight Strategies ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-15 – 2026-09-19643 · Likely voters	R 44.4% / D 43.1%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · R +1.3 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas TX-09 HouseAlex Mealer (R) / Leticia Gutierrez (D)	Public Policy Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-18 – 2026-09-19560 · Registered voters	R 45% / D 39%R +6.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Louisiana SenateJulia Letlow (R) / Jamie Davis (D)	Hart Research Associates ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-17 – 2026-09-19500 · Likely voters	R 48% / D 44%Model pair: Jamie Davis (D) / Julia Letlow (R) · R +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) / Ted Brown (LIB)	Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-15 – 2026-09-191,800 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 46% / LIB 3%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-15 – 2026-09-183,864 · Registered voters	D 52% / R 41%D +11.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-15 – 2026-09-183,742 · Likely voters	D 53% / R 41%Model pair: Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) · D +12.0 · reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-15 – 2026-09-183,511 · Likely voters	D 54% / R 41%D +13.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Georgia SenateJon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-15 – 2026-09-183,416 · Registered voters	D 51% / R 41%D +10.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Georgia SenateJon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-15 – 2026-09-183,071 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 43%D +8.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Georgia SenateJon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-15 – 2026-09-183,301 · Likely voters	D 52% / R 42%Model pair: Jon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R) · D +10.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateAshley Hinson (R) / Josh Turek (D) / Thomas Laehn (LIB)	Trafalgar Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-16 – 2026-09-181,089 · Likely voters	R 44% / D 42.1% / LIB 3.4%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · R +1.9 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Quantus Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-15 – 2026-09-181,389 · Likely voters	D 50.3% / R 41.7%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +9.3 · normalized two-party margin
Alaska SenateDan Sullivan (R) / Mary Peltola (D)	co/efficient ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-14 – 2026-09-17799 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	R 49% / D 46%Model pair: Mary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R) · R +3.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Alaska SenateDan Sullivan (R) / Mary Peltola (D) / Dan J. Sullivan (R) / Gerald Heikes (R)	co/efficient ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-14 – 2026-09-17799 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	R 48% / D 46% / R 1% / R 1%No two-party model margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) / Ted Brown (LIB)	Trafalgar Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-15 – 2026-09-171,079 · Likely voters	D 46.4% / R 45.2% / LIB 2.5%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +1.2 · reported percentage-point margin
California CA-11 HouseScott Wiener (D) / Connie Chan (D)	Tavern Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-15 – 2026-09-17658 · Likely voters	D 53% / D 47%No two-party model margin
Florida SenateAshley Moody (R) / Angie Nixon (D)	St. Pete Polls ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-15 – 2026-09-17913 · Likely voters	R 45.2% / D 44.8%Model pair: Angie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R) · R +0.4 · reported percentage-point margin
Colorado CO-08 HouseGabe Evans (R) / Manny Rutinel (D)	McLaughlin & Associates ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-16 – 2026-09-17400 · Likely voters	R 48% / D 46.3%Model pair: Manny Rutinel (D) / Gabe Evans (R) · R +1.8 · normalized two-party margin
Colorado CO-08 HouseGeneric Republican (R) / Generic Democrat (D)	McLaughlin & Associates ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-16 – 2026-09-17400 · Likely voters	R 47% / D 46.6%R +0.4 · Reported percentage-point margin
Utah UT-04 HouseMike Kennedy (R) / Jonny Larsen (D) / Steven Burt (NPA) / Taylor Wright (LIB)	Lighthouse Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-08 – 2026-09-17513 · Registered voters	R 41.7% / D 32.9% / NPA 5.7% / LIB 5.3%No two-party model margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	John Zogby Strategies ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-15 – 2026-09-171,007 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 42% / OTH 5.2%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +6.7 · normalized two-party margin
New Hampshire SenateChris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R) / Edmond Laplante (CON) / Matt Giovonizzi (I) / Tim Harris (I)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-16 – 2026-09-171,200 · Likely voters	D 47.8% / R 39.9% / CON 1.4% / I 1% / I 0.8%Model pair: Chris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R) · D +7.9 · reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) / Shannon Bray (LIB) / Michael Dublin (GRE)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-16 – 2026-09-171,200 · Likely voters	D 48.4% / R 42.5% / LIB 1.6% / GRE 1.1%Model pair: Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) · D +5.9 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) / Lydia Christensen (LIB) / Timothy Long (CON) / Douglas Marsh (GRE)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-16 – 2026-09-171,200 · Likely voters	D 46.6% / R 44.7% / LIB 1.4% / CON 1.1% / GRE 0.8%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +1.9 · reported percentage-point margin
Virginia VA-01 HouseRobert Wittman (R) / Shannon Taylor (D)	DCCC Targeting Team ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-15 – 2026-09-17519 · Likely voters	R 47% / D 46%Model pair: Shannon Taylor (D) / Robert Wittman (R) · R +1.1 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	CNN/SSRS ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-16 – 2026-09-17867 · Registered voters	D 49% / R 41%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +8.9 · normalized two-party margin
Iowa SenateAshley Hinson (R) / Josh Turek (D) / Thomas Laehn (LIB)	co/efficient ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-14 – 2026-09-16831 · Likely voters	R 46% / D 42% / LIB 2%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · R +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R)	Trafalgar Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-14 – 2026-09-161,085 · Likely voters	D 45.4% / R 41.5%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +3.9 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	The Winston Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-12 – 2026-09-161,000 · Registered voters	D 51% / R 42%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +9.7 · normalized two-party margin
Georgia SenateJon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R)	Quantus Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-14 – 2026-09-16645 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 44.9%Model pair: Jon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R) · D +4.1 · reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R)	High Point University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-06 – 2026-09-16706 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 42%Model pair: Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) · D +8.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Kansas SenateAdam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R)	Global Strategy Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-13 – 2026-09-16800 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 47%Model pair: Adam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R) · D +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Kansas SenateAdam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R) / David Graham (LIB)	Global Strategy Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-13 – 2026-09-16800 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 43% / LIB 5%No two-party model margin
Michigan MI-04 HouseSean McCann (D) / Bill Huizenga (R)	GBAO ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-13 – 2026-09-16500 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 46%Model pair: Sean McCann (D) / Bill Huizenga (R) · D +1.1 · normalized two-party margin
Kansas SenateAdam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R) / David Graham (LIB)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-15 – 2026-09-16750 · Likely voters	D 44.75% / R 43.3% / LIB 3.7%Model pair: Adam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R) · D +1.5 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Clarity Campaign Labs ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-11 – 2026-09-161,046 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 43%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +7.5 · normalized two-party margin
Minnesota SenatePeggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) / Marisa Simonetti (I) / Rebecca Whiting (LIB)	co/efficient ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-14 – 2026-09-15833 · Likely voters	D 43% / R 42% / I 2% / LIB 2%Model pair: Peggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) · D +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-04 – 2026-09-15885 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 37%Model pair: Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) · D +11.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Missouri MO-02 HouseGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Remington ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-14 – 2026-09-15565 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 46%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +1.1 · normalized two-party margin
Missouri MO-02 HouseAnn Wagner (R) / Fred Wellman (D)	Remington ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-14 – 2026-09-15565 · Likely voters	R 43% / D 42%R +1.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	RMG Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-08 – 2026-09-152,000 · Registered voters	D 51% / R 43%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +8.5 · normalized two-party margin
Montana SenateKurt Alme (R) / Seth Bodnar (I) / Alani Bankhead (D)	Quantus Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-14 – 2026-09-15625 · Likely voters	R 45.3% / I 26.1% / D 24.4%Model pair: Seth Bodnar (I) / Kurt Alme (R) · R +19.2 · reported percentage-point margin
Maine SenateSusan Collins (R) / Troy Jackson (D)	Quantus Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-14 – 2026-09-15621 · Likely voters	R 47.6% / D 47.4%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · R +0.2 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Morning Consult ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-10 – 2026-09-152,102 · Registered voters	D 46% / R 43%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +3.4 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	Marist University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-14 – 2026-09-151,280 · Registered voters	D 53% / R 41% / OTH 2%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +12.8 · normalized two-party margin
Utah UT-03 HouseCeleste Maloy (R) / Kent Udell (D) / Michael Stoddard (LIB) / Ayden Scott (NPA) / Cassie Easley (CON) / Adonis Hooslyn (NPA)	Lighthouse Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-02 – 2026-09-15508 · Registered voters	R 44.5% / D 26.4% / LIB 6.5% / NPA 2.8% / CON 2.6% / NPA 0.2%No two-party model margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-11 – 2026-09-151,000 · Registered voters	D 50% / R 45%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +5.3 · normalized two-party margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) / Shannon Bray (LIB) / Michael Dublin (GRE)	Harper Polling ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-13 – 2026-09-15608 · Likely voters	D 49.2% / R 34.1% / LIB 2.9% / GRE 1.5%Model pair: Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) · D +15.1 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-12 – 2026-09-151,500 · Registered voters	D 36.5% / R 28.6% / OTH 9.8%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +12.1 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Big Data Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-13 – 2026-09-152,947 · Registered voters	D 47.8% / R 38.1%D +9.7 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Big Data Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-13 – 2026-09-152,633 · Likely voters	D 50.5% / R 39.3%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +12.5 · normalized two-party margin
Montana SenateKurt Alme (R) / Seth Bodnar (I) / Alani Bankhead (D) / Kyle Austin (LIB)	Aspect Strategic ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-07 – 2026-09-15715 · Likely voters	R 44% / I 32% / D 14% / LIB 3%Model pair: Seth Bodnar (I) / Kurt Alme (R) · R +12.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-11 – 2026-09-141,051 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 39%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +13.3 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-11 – 2026-09-141,455 · Registered voters	D 44% / R 39%D +5.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Maine SenateTroy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)	University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-28 – 2026-09-14650 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 43%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · D +5.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-10 – 2026-09-14803 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 45%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +3.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Minnesota SenateMichele Tafoya (R) / Peggy Flanagan (D) / Marisa Simonetti (I) / Rebecca Whiting (LIB)	SurveyUSA ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-09 – 2026-09-14654 · Likely voters	R 42% / D 42% / I 2% / LIB 2%Model pair: Peggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) · Even · reported percentage-point margin
Pennsylvania PA-01 HouseBrian Fitzpatrick (R) / Bob Harvie (D)	Public Opinion Strategies ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-11 – 2026-09-14400 · Registered voters	R 51% / D 42%Model pair: Bob Harvie (D) / Brian Fitzpatrick (R) · R +9.7 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	Ipsos ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-11 – 2026-09-14896 · Registered voters	D 44% / R 37% / OTH 2%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +8.6 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	Ipsos ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-11 – 2026-09-141,143 · Adults	D 39% / R 31% / OTH 2%No two-party model margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) / Ted Brown (LIB)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-12 – 2026-09-141,000 · Likely voters	D 47.35% / R 46.35% / LIB 1.9%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) / Timothy Long (CON) / Lydia Christensen (LIB) / Douglas Marsh (GRE) / Walter Kristy (NAT)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-12 – 2026-09-141,000 · Likely voters	D 48.19% / R 45.72% / CON 0.58% / LIB 0.49% / GRE 0.31% / NAT 0.3%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +2.5 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Bedrock Polling ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-10 – 2026-09-141,004 · Registered voters	D 48% / R 42%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +6.7 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-11 – 2026-09-141,211 · Registered voters	D 51% / R 44%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +7.4 · normalized two-party margin
Florida FL-27 HouseMaría Elvira Salazar (R) / Eliott Rodriguez (D)	Tulchin Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-08 – 2026-09-13600 · Likely voters	R 47% / D 46%R +1.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-08 – 2026-09-131,503 · Likely voters	D 51.28% / R 42.76%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +9.1 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	The New York Times/Siena University ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-08 – 2026-09-131,503 · Registered voters	D 49.01% / R 42.18%D +6.8 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	The Honest Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-07 – 2026-09-131,633 · Registered voters	D 50% / R 40% / OTH 3%No two-party model margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	The Honest Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-07 – 2026-09-131,392 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 42% / OTH 3%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +9.7 · normalized two-party margin
Nebraska NE-02 HouseDenise Powell (D) / Brinker Harding (R)	SurveyUSA ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-08 – 2026-09-13182 · Likely voters	D 46% / R 42%Model pair: Denise Powell (D) / Brinker Harding (R) · D +4.5 · normalized two-party margin
Nebraska SenateDan Osborn (I) / Pete Ricketts (R)	SurveyUSA ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-08 – 2026-09-13503 · Likely voters	I 46% / R 42%Model pair: Dan Osborn (I) / Pete Ricketts (R) · I +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Morning Consult ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-07 – 2026-09-1318,127 · Likely voters	D 49.07% / R 43.34%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +6.2 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Morning Consult ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-07 – 2026-09-1330,013 · Registered voters	D 46.3% / R 42.4%D +3.9 · Reported percentage-point margin
Minnesota MN-02 HouseMatt Little (D) / Eric Pratt (R)	Impact Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-09 – 2026-09-13500 · Likely voters	D 52% / R 40%Model pair: Matt Little (D) / Eric Pratt (R) · D +13.0 · normalized two-party margin
Georgia SenateJon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R) / Allen Buckley (I)	Trafalgar Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-10 – 2026-09-121,091 · Likely voters	D 49.4% / R 42.8% / I 1.3%Model pair: Jon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R) · D +6.6 · reported percentage-point margin
New Jersey NJ-07 HouseRebecca Bennett (D) / Thomas H. Kean Jr. (R) / Seamus O'Toole (StopIsrael'sGenocide)	StimSight Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-08 – 2026-09-12498 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 42% / StopIsrael'sGenocide 1%Model pair: Rebecca Bennett (D) / Thomas H. Kean Jr. (R) · D +5.6 · normalized two-party margin
Maine ME-02 HouseGeneric Republican (R) / Generic Democrat (D)	Impact Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-08 – 2026-09-12500 · Likely voters	R 49% / D 45%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · R +4.3 · normalized two-party margin
Maine ME-02 HouseMatt Dunlap (D) / Paul LePage (R)	Impact Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-08 – 2026-09-12500 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 49%Even · Reported percentage-point margin
Alaska SenateMary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R)	Alaska Survey Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-10 – 2026-09-121,352 · Likely votersFinal ranked-choice round	D 51.9% / R 48.1%Model pair: Mary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R) · D +3.8 · reported percentage-point margin
Alaska SenateMary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R) / Gerald Heikes (R) / Dan J. Sullivan (R)	Alaska Survey Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-10 – 2026-09-121,352 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	D 48.4% / R 43.8% / R 4% / R 3.7%No two-party model margin
New Hampshire SenateChris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R)	co/efficient ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-09 – 2026-09-11958 · Likely voters	D 46% / R 46%Model pair: Chris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R) · Even · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-08 – 2026-09-111,750 · Likely voters	D 54% / R 46%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +8.0 · normalized two-party margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	ReconMR/Siena Research Institute ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-08 – 2026-09-11614 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 43%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +6.0 · reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina NC-11 HouseGeneric Republican (R) / Generic Democrat (D)	Public Policy Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-10 – 2026-09-11531 · Registered voters	R 50% / D 46%R +4.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina NC-11 HouseJamie Ager (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Public Policy Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-10 – 2026-09-11531 · Registered voters	D 47% / R 44%D +3.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Georgia GA-11 HouseChris Harden (D) / John Cowan (R)	Miller Consulting Services ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-08-31 – 2026-09-11402 · Likely voters	D 42% / R 40%Model pair: Chris Harden (D) / John Cowan (R) · D +2.4 · normalized two-party margin
Georgia GA-11 HouseGeneric Republican (R) / Generic Democrat (D)	Miller Consulting Services ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-08-31 – 2026-09-11402 · Likely voters	R 48% / D 45%R +3.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina NC-01 HouseDon Davis (D) / Laurie Buckhout (R)	GBAO ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-08 – 2026-09-11500 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 43%D +7.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Alaska AK-01 HouseNick Begich (R) / Bill Hill (I) / Eric Hafner (D) / Jim C. McDermott (LIB)	Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-08 – 2026-09-11800 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	R 45% / I 31% / D 9% / LIB 3%No two-party model margin
Alaska AK-01 HouseNick Begich (R) / Bill Hill (I) / Eric Hafner (D) / Jim C. McDermott (LIB)	Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-08 – 2026-09-11800 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	R 51% / I 35% / D 11% / LIB 4%No two-party model margin
Alaska AK-01 HouseNick Begich (R) / Bill Hill (I)	Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-08 – 2026-09-11800 · Likely votersFinal ranked-choice round	R 57% / I 43%R +14.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Alaska SenateMary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R) / Dan J. Sullivan (R) / Gerald Heikes (R)	Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-08 – 2026-09-11800 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	D 50% / R 43% / R 4% / R 3%No two-party model margin
Alaska SenateMary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R) / Dan J. Sullivan (R) / Gerald Heikes (R)	Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-08 – 2026-09-11800 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	D 46% / R 41% / R 4% / R 3%No two-party model margin
Alaska SenateMary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R)	Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-08 – 2026-09-11800 · Likely votersFinal ranked-choice round	D 53% / R 47%Model pair: Mary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R) · D +6.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateAshley Hinson (R) / Josh Turek (D) / Thomas Laehn (LIB)	Cygnal Political ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-09 – 2026-09-11500 · Likely voters	R 42.9% / D 42.9% / LIB 3.6%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · Even · reported percentage-point margin
Kansas SenateRoger Marshall (R) / Adam Hamilton (D) / David Graham (LIB)	co/efficient ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-08 – 2026-09-10915 · Likely voters	R 49% / D 44% / LIB 2%Model pair: Adam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R) · R +5.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) / Gregory Levy (I) / Bill Redpath (LIB)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-01 – 2026-09-101,000 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 45% / I 3% / LIB 2%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +3.0 · reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) / Shannon Bray (LIB) / Michael Dublin (GRE)	Trafalgar Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-08 – 2026-09-101,084 · Likely voters	D 48.2% / R 42.3% / LIB 1.4% / GRE 1.3%Model pair: Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) · D +5.9 · reported percentage-point margin
Minnesota SenatePeggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R)	Quantus Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-08 – 2026-09-10720 · Likely voters	D 48.9% / R 45.4%Model pair: Peggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) · D +3.5 · reported percentage-point margin
Florida SenateAshley Moody (R) / Angie Nixon (D)	Quantus Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-08 – 2026-09-10733 · Likely voters	R 50.4% / D 43%Model pair: Angie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R) · R +7.4 · reported percentage-point margin
South Carolina SC-01 HouseJenny Costa Honeycutt (R) / Nancy Lacore (D)	Public Policy Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-09 – 2026-09-10536 · Registered voters	R 41% / D 40%Model pair: Nancy Lacore (D) / Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R) · R +1.2 · normalized two-party margin
South Carolina SC-01 HouseGeneric Republican (R) / Generic Democrat (D)	Public Policy Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-09 – 2026-09-10536 · Registered voters	R 48% / D 42%R +6.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
New York NY-21 HouseAnthony Constantino (R) / Blake Gendebien (D)	Public Policy Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-09 – 2026-09-10557 · Registered voters	R 48% / D 43%Model pair: Blake Gendebien (D) / Anthony Constantino (R) · R +5.5 · normalized two-party margin
New York NY-21 HouseGeneric Republican (R) / Generic Democrat (D)	Public Policy Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-09 – 2026-09-10557 · Registered voters	R 53% / D 40%R +13.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Montana MT-01 HouseGeneric Republican (R) / Generic Democrat (D)	Public Policy Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-09 – 2026-09-10536 · Registered voters	R 48% / D 44%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · R +4.3 · normalized two-party margin
Montana MT-01 HouseSam Forstag (D) / Aaron Flint (R)	Public Policy Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-09 – 2026-09-10536 · Registered voters	D 45% / R 43%D +2.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) / Ted Brown (LIB)	Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-08 – 2026-09-10625 · Likely voters	D 46% / R 43% / LIB 3%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +3.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Utah UT-01 HouseBen McAdams (D) / Riley Owen (R) / Jesse West (LIB) / Elias Montgomery (NPA)	Lighthouse Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-31 – 2026-09-10515 · Registered voters	D 62.7% / R 21.2% / LIB 4.7% / NPA 3.3%No two-party model margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	ActiVote ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-31 – 2026-09-101,000 · Likely voters	D 52.3% / R 47.7%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +4.6 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-04 – 2026-09-091,200 · Adults	D 38% / R 28% / OTH 1%No two-party model margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-04 – 2026-09-09779 · Registered voters	D 49% / R 38% / OTH 0%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +12.6 · normalized two-party margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) / Lydia Christensen (LIB) / Timothy Long (CON) / Douglas Marsh (GRE) / Walter Kristy (NAT)	Trafalgar Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-07 – 2026-09-091,079 · Likely voters	D 46.3% / R 44.8% / LIB 0.8% / CON 0.7% / GRE 0.4% / NAT 0.2%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +1.5 · reported percentage-point margin
South Dakota SenateMike Rounds (R) / Brian Bengs (I)	Public Policy Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-08 – 2026-09-09629 · Registered voters	R 45% / I 42%Model pair: Brian Bengs (I) / Mike Rounds (R) · R +3.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Marquette University Law School ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-02 – 2026-09-09583 · Likely voters	D 54% / R 41%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +13.7 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Marquette University Law School ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-02 – 2026-09-09866 · Registered voters	D 50% / R 42%D +8.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Marquette University Law School ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-02 – 2026-09-091,023 · Adults	D 48% / R 39%D +9.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) / Ted Brown (LIB)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-08 – 2026-09-091,200 · Likely voters	D 47.1% / R 45.6% / LIB 2.2%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +1.5 · reported percentage-point margin
South Carolina SenateDarline Graham (R) / Annie Andrews (D)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-08 – 2026-09-091,200 · Likely voters	R 45.1% / D 43.2%Model pair: Annie Andrews (D) / Darline Graham (R) · R +1.9 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-08 – 2026-09-091,200 · Likely voters	D 47.3% / R 41.9%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +5.4 · reported percentage-point margin
California CA-40 HouseYoung Kim (R) / Ken Calvert (R)	Grassroots Targeting ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-05 – 2026-09-09715 · Likely voters	R 43% / R 34%No two-party model margin
Florida SenateAngie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R)	Change Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-07 – 2026-09-091,107 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 47%Model pair: Angie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R) · Even · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-04 – 2026-09-081,464 · Registered voters	D 42% / R 35%D +7.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-04 – 2026-09-081,015 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 38%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +12.6 · normalized two-party margin
Maine SenateTroy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-02 – 2026-09-081,378 · Registered voters	D 46% / R 44%D +2.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Maine SenateTroy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-02 – 2026-09-081,335 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 44%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · D +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateJosh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-03 – 2026-09-082,041 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 43%D +4.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateJosh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-03 – 2026-09-082,127 · Likely voters	D 45% / R 43%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · D +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateJosh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-03 – 2026-09-082,166 · Registered voters	D 44% / R 43%D +1.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Nebraska SenateDan Osborn (I) / Pete Ricketts (R)	GBAO ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-09-03 – 2026-09-08800 · Likely voters	I 47% / R 46%Model pair: Dan Osborn (I) / Pete Ricketts (R) · I +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Montana MT-01 HouseAaron Flint (R) / Sam Forstag (D) / Nick Sheedy (LIB)	Rutgers-Eagleton ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-27 – 2026-09-07375 · Registered voters	R 42% / D 41% / LIB 5%Model pair: Sam Forstag (D) / Aaron Flint (R) · R +1.2 · normalized two-party margin
Montana SenateKurt Alme (R) / Seth Bodnar (I) / Alani Bankhead (D) / Kyle Austin (LIB)	Rutgers-Eagleton ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-27 – 2026-09-07845 · Registered voters	R 38% / I 30% / D 16% / LIB 5%Model pair: Seth Bodnar (I) / Kurt Alme (R) · R +8.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	PRRI ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-20 – 2026-09-075,200 · Adults	D 36% / R 28% / OTH 4%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +12.5 · normalized two-party margin
California CA-06 HouseRichard Pan (D) / Kevin Kiley (I)	The Bullfinch Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-01 – 2026-09-06927 · Likely voters	D 36.7% / I 36.5%No two-party model margin
Alaska AK-01 HouseNick Begich (R) / Bill Hill (I)	The Bullfinch Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-01 – 2026-09-06820 · Likely votersFinal ranked-choice round	R 50.3% / I 46.5%R +3.8 · Reported percentage-point margin
Alaska AK-01 HouseNick Begich (R) / Bill Hill (I) / Eric Hafner (D) / Jim C. McDermott (LIB)	The Bullfinch Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-01 – 2026-09-06820 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	R 44.2% / I 36.6% / D 7.4% / LIB 1.9%No two-party model margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Quinnipiac University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-03 – 2026-09-06970 · Registered voters	D 49% / R 38%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +12.6 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Morning Consult ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-31 – 2026-09-0629,427 · Registered voters	D 46.3% / R 42.2%D +4.1 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Morning Consult ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-31 – 2026-09-0617,739 · Likely voters	D 49.26% / R 43.04%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +6.7 · normalized two-party margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	CNN/SSRS ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-31 – 2026-09-06843 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 44%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +3.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Maine SenateTroy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)	CNN/SSRS ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-31 – 2026-09-06880 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 45%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · D +3.0 · reported percentage-point margin
California CA-34 HouseAngela Gonzales-Torres (D) / Jimmy Gomez (D)	Upswing Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-09-01 – 2026-09-05403 · Likely voters	D 41% / D 38%No two-party model margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-27 – 2026-09-041,000 · Registered voters	D 48% / R 43%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +5.0 · reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina NC-09 HouseRichard Hudson (R) / Richard Ojeda (D)	Lake Research Partners ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-08-31 – 2026-09-03400 · Likely voters	R 46% / D 42%R +4.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Tennessee TN-09 HouseBrent Taylor (R) / Justin Pearson (D)	Hart Research Associates ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-09-01 – 2026-09-03400 · Likely voters	R 48% / D 44%R +4.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Nebraska NE-01 HouseChris Backemeyer (D) / Mike Flood (R)	Global Strategy Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-08-31 – 2026-09-03600 · Likely voters	D 43% / R 42%Model pair: Chris Backemeyer (D) / Mike Flood (R) · D +1.2 · normalized two-party margin
Nebraska NE-01 HouseChris Backemeyer (D) / Mike Flood (R)	Global Strategy Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-08-31 – 2026-09-03600 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 45%D +4.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateMike Rogers (R) / Abdul El-Sayed (D)	Glengariff Group, Inc. ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-31 – 2026-09-03600 · Likely voters	R 45.8% / D 44.4%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · R +1.4 · reported percentage-point margin
Nevada NV-02 HouseTeresa Benitez-Thompson (D) / David Flippo (R) / Lynn Chapman (IAP)	GBAO ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-08-31 – 2026-09-03500 · Likely voters	D 38% / R 37% / IAP 14%No two-party model margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) / Shannon Bray (LIB) / Michael Dublin (GRE)	East Carolina University Center for Survey Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-31 – 2026-09-03675 · Likely voters	D 51.7% / R 43.6% / LIB 2.7% / GRE 0.9%Model pair: Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) · D +8.1 · reported percentage-point margin
Minnesota SenatePeggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) / Marisa Simonetti (I) / Rebecca Whiting (LIB)	TIPP Insights ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-08-31 – 2026-09-021,192 · Likely voters	D 43.96% / R 41.86% / I 2.99% / LIB 1.02%Model pair: Peggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) · D +2.1 · reported percentage-point margin
Minnesota SenatePeggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) / Marisa Simonetti (I) / Rebecca Whiting (LIB)	TIPP Insights ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-08-31 – 2026-09-021,494 · Registered voters	D 39.99% / R 37.98% / I 4.08% / LIB 1.13%No two-party model margin
New Mexico NM-02 HouseGabriel Vasquez (D) / Greg Cunningham (R)	SurveyUSASource link unavailableNo partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-28 – 2026-09-02554 · Likely voters	D 46% / R 43%Model pair: Gabriel Vasquez (D) / Greg Cunningham (R) · D +3.4 · normalized two-party margin
New York NY-21 HouseAnthony Constantino (R) / Blake Gendebien (D)	Impact Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-08-30 – 2026-09-02500 · Likely voters	R 47% / D 44%Model pair: Blake Gendebien (D) / Anthony Constantino (R) · R +3.3 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Focaldata ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-28 – 2026-09-021,914 · Registered voters	D 48.72% / R 42.26%D +6.5 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Focaldata ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-28 – 2026-09-022,180 · Adults	D 46.33% / R 40.55%D +5.8 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Focaldata ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-28 – 2026-09-021,837 · Likely voters	D 51.98% / R 44.92%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +7.3 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Cygnal Political ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-09-01 – 2026-09-021,500 · Likely voters	D 50.7% / R 42.1%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +9.3 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	The Honest Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-29 – 2026-09-01951 · Registered voters	D 51% / R 41%D +10.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	The Honest Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-29 – 2026-09-01783 · Likely voters	D 53% / R 43%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +10.4 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	The Honest Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-29 – 2026-09-011,106 · Adults	D 48% / R 40%D +8.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
California CA-48 HouseMarni von Wilpert (D) / Jim Desmond (R)	SurveyUSA ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-27 – 2026-09-01522 · Likely voters	D 45% / R 42%D +3.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-30 – 2026-09-01895 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 44%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateAshley Hinson (R) / Josh Turek (D) / Thomas Laehn (LIB)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-31 – 2026-09-01750 · Likely voters	R 49.47% / D 45.05% / LIB 0.76%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · R +4.4 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-25 – 2026-09-011,200 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 44%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +7.4 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-28 – 2026-08-311,589 · Adults	D 36% / R 31%D +5.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-28 – 2026-08-311,434 · Registered voters	D 46% / R 40%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +7.0 · normalized two-party margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) / Michael Dublin (GRE) / Shannon Bray (LIB)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-21 – 2026-08-31565 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 38% / GRE 2% / LIB 2%Model pair: Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) · D +11.0 · reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) / Michael Dublin (GRE) / Shannon Bray (LIB)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-21 – 2026-08-31677 · Registered voters	D 49% / R 36% / GRE 2% / LIB 1%No two-party model margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) / Shannon Bray (LIB) / Michael Dublin (GRE)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-21 – 2026-08-31800 · Adults	D 39% / R 29% / LIB 2% / GRE 1%No two-party model margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	Ipsos ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-28 – 2026-08-31924 · Registered voters	D 43% / R 38% / OTH 2%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +6.2 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	Ipsos ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-28 – 2026-08-311,167 · Adults	D 38% / R 31% / OTH 3%No two-party model margin
Iowa SenateJosh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) / Thomas Laehn (LIB)	Global Strategy Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-08-27 – 2026-08-31800 · Likely voters	D 46% / R 42% / LIB 6%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · D +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R)	Concord Public Opinion Partners ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-08-29 – 2026-08-31504 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 40%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +10.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Florida FL-09 HouseDan Green (R) / Darren Soto (D)	SEA Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-08-24 – 2026-08-30400 · Likely voters	R 41% / D 41%Even · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Morning Consult ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-24 – 2026-08-3028,429 · Registered voters	D 47.1% / R 42.3%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +5.4 · normalized two-party margin
South Dakota SD-01 HouseMarty Jackley (R) / Nikki Gronli (D)	Lake Research Partners ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-08-26 – 2026-08-30500 · Likely voters	R 47% / D 43%Model pair: Nikki Gronli (D) / Marty Jackley (R) · R +4.4 · normalized two-party margin
South Dakota SenateBrian Bengs (I) / Mike Rounds (R)	Lake Research Partners ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-08-26 – 2026-08-30500 · Likely voters	I 51% / R 41%Model pair: Brian Bengs (I) / Mike Rounds (R) · I +10.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	HarrisX/Harris Poll ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-28 – 2026-08-302,100 · Registered voters	D 51% / R 49%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +2.0 · normalized two-party margin
New Hampshire SenateJohn Sununu (R) / Chris Pappas (D) / Aaron Day (I) / Christine Lopez (I) / Tim Harris (I) / Edmond Laplante (CON) / Jeanne Logan Morrow (I)	Fabrizio, Lee & Associates ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-08-27 – 2026-08-30600 · Likely voters	R 37% / D 36% / I 1% / I 1% / I 1% / CON 0% / I 0%Model pair: Chris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R) · R +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Florida FL-27 HouseEliott Rodriguez (D) / María Elvira Salazar (R)	Bendixen & Amandi International ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-08-25 – 2026-08-30600 · Likely voters	D 45% / R 45%Even · Reported percentage-point margin
Florida FL-16 HouseKelly Kirschner (D) / Sydney Gruters (R)	SEA Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-08-25 – 2026-08-29400 · Likely voters	D 40% / R 39%D +1.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
New Mexico SenateBen Ray Luján (D) / Larry Marker (R)	Research & Polling Inc. ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-21 – 2026-08-28516 · Likely voters	D 53% / R 38%Model pair: Ben Ray Luján (D) / Larry Marker (R) · D +15.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Quantus Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-26 – 2026-08-281,200 · Likely voters	D 49.7% / R 42.8%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +7.5 · normalized two-party margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	EPIC-MRA ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-22 – 2026-08-28600 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 43%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
South Carolina SenateAnnie Andrews (D) / Darline Graham (R)	Abacus Data ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-26 – 2026-08-28500 · Registered voters	D 34% / R 34%Even · Reported percentage-point margin
South Carolina SenateDarline Graham (R) / Annie Andrews (D)	Abacus Data ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-26 – 2026-08-28306 · Likely voters	R 51% / D 38%Model pair: Annie Andrews (D) / Darline Graham (R) · R +13.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R)	Abacus Data ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-26 – 2026-08-28306 · Likely voters	D 46% / R 41%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +5.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R)	Abacus Data ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-26 – 2026-08-28500 · Registered voters	D 40% / R 33%D +7.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	Abacus Data ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-26 – 2026-08-28332 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 42%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +5.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	Abacus Data ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-26 – 2026-08-28500 · Registered voters	D 41% / R 35%D +6.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Maine SenateSusan Collins (R) / Troy Jackson (D)	Abacus Data ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-26 – 2026-08-28499 · Registered voters	R 40% / D 40%Even · Reported percentage-point margin
Maine SenateTroy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)	Abacus Data ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-26 – 2026-08-28327 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 42%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · D +8.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateJosh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R)	Abacus Data ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-26 – 2026-08-28500 · Registered voters	D 41% / R 36%D +5.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Iowa SenateJosh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R)	Abacus Data ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-26 – 2026-08-28323 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 41%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · D +7.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Kentucky SenateAndy Barr (R) / Charles Booker (D)	Global Strategy Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-08-24 – 2026-08-27600 · Likely voters	R 49% / D 40%Model pair: Charles Booker (D) / Andy Barr (R) · R +9.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (I)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-21 – 2026-08-261,000 · Adults	D 42% / R 34% / I 10%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +10.5 · normalized two-party margin
Tennessee SenateBill Hagerty (R) / Marquita Bradshaw (D)	Targoz Market Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-15 – 2026-08-261,157 · Registered voters	R 51% / D 31%R +20.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Tennessee SenateBill Hagerty (R) / Marquita Bradshaw (D)	Targoz Market Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-15 – 2026-08-26607 · Likely voters	R 58% / D 33%Model pair: Marquita Bradshaw (D) / Bill Hagerty (R) · R +25.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Nevada NV-02 HouseDavid Flippo (R) / Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) / Lynn Chapman (IAP)	Strategies 360 ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-08-22 – 2026-08-26400 · Likely voters	R 45% / D 42% / IAP 7%No two-party model margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R)	Overton Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-24 – 2026-08-261,167 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 50%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · Even · reported percentage-point margin
Georgia GA-07 HouseRich McCormick (R) / Tony Kozycki (D)	20/20 Insight ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-08-20 – 2026-08-26445 · Likely voters	R 46% / D 43%Model pair: Tony Kozycki (D) / Rich McCormick (R) · R +3.4 · normalized two-party margin
Montana SenateKurt Alme (R) / Seth Bodnar (I) / Alani Bankhead (D) / Kyle Austin (LIB)	Peak Insights ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-08-23 – 2026-08-25600 · Likely voters	R 44% / I 22% / D 19% / LIB 2%Model pair: Seth Bodnar (I) / Kurt Alme (R) · R +22.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-21 – 2026-08-241,377 · Registered voters	D 46% / R 40%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +7.0 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-21 – 2026-08-241,534 · Adults	D 37% / R 31%D +6.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Rhode Island SenateJack Reed (D) / Raymond McKay (R) / Michael Bahry (I)	University of New Hampshire ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-20 – 2026-08-24722 · Likely voters	D 51% / R 31% / I 4%Model pair: Jack Reed (D) / Raymond McKay (R) · D +20.0 · reported percentage-point margin
New Hampshire SenateJohn Sununu (R) / Chris Pappas (D)	University of New Hampshire ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-20 – 2026-08-241,846 · Likely voters	R 45% / D 43%Model pair: Chris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R) · R +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
New Hampshire SenateChris Pappas (D) / Scott Brown (R)	University of New Hampshire ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-20 – 2026-08-241,846 · Likely voters	D 45% / R 40%D +5.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Massachusetts SenateEd Markey (D) / John Deaton (R) / Joe Tache (PSL)	University of New Hampshire ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-20 – 2026-08-24906 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 30% / PSL 7%Model pair: Ed Markey (D) / John Deaton (R) · D +19.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Massachusetts SenateSeth Moulton (D) / John Deaton (R) / Joe Tache (PSL)	University of New Hampshire ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-20 – 2026-08-24893 · Likely voters	D 38% / R 25% / PSL 16%No two-party model margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) / Ted Brown (LIB) / Camencia Ford (I) / Hans Truelson (I) / Joshua Cain (I)	Slingshot Strategies ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-21 – 2026-08-241,000 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 42% / LIB 1% / I 0% / I 0% / I 0%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +6.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio OH-01 HouseGreg Landsman (D) / Eric Conroy (R)	Quantus Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-21 – 2026-08-24509 · Likely voters	D 47.9% / R 44.6%D +3.3 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	McLaughlin & Associates ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-18 – 2026-08-241,000 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 43%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +5.5 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	Ipsos ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-21 – 2026-08-241,215 · Adults	D 35% / R 29% / OTH 4%No two-party model margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	Ipsos ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-21 – 2026-08-24951 · Registered voters	D 41% / R 35% / OTH 4%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +7.9 · normalized two-party margin
Tennessee TN-05 HouseCharlie Hatcher (R) / Chaz Molder (D) / James Johnson (I) / Micheál O'Leary (I)	Impact Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-08-19 – 2026-08-24500 · Likely voters	R 48% / D 40% / I 1% / I 0%No two-party model margin
South Carolina SenateAnnie Andrews (D) / Darline Graham (R) / Kasie Whitener (LIB)	Impact Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-08-18 – 2026-08-24700 · Likely voters	D 41% / R 41% / LIB 5%Model pair: Annie Andrews (D) / Darline Graham (R) · Even · reported percentage-point margin
Arizona AZ-02 HouseEli Crane (R) / Jonathan Nez (D)	GBAO ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-08-21 – 2026-08-24500 · Likely voters	R 46% / D 44%Model pair: Jonathan Nez (D) / Eli Crane (R) · R +2.2 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	ActiVote ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-10 – 2026-08-241,000 · Likely voters	D 51.7% / R 48.3%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +3.4 · normalized two-party margin
Iowa SenateAshley Hinson (R) / Josh Turek (D) / Thomas Laehn (LIB)	Suffolk University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-20 – 2026-08-23500 · Likely voters	R 45.4% / D 40.8% / LIB 4%Model pair: Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R) · R +4.6 · reported percentage-point margin
Pennsylvania PA-01 HouseBrian Fitzpatrick (R) / Bob Harvie (D)	GQR ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-08-19 – 2026-08-23400 · Likely voters	R 49% / D 48%Model pair: Bob Harvie (D) / Brian Fitzpatrick (R) · R +1.0 · normalized two-party margin
Alaska AK-01 HouseNick Begich (R) / Bill Hill (I) / John Williams (D) / Eric Hafner (D)	Alaska Survey Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-20 – 2026-08-231,872 · Likely votersFinal ranked-choice round	R 50.6% / I 39.1% / D 5.7% / D 4.6%No two-party model margin
Alaska SenateMary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R)	Alaska Survey Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-20 – 2026-08-231,495 · Likely votersFinal ranked-choice round	D 50.6% / R 49.4%Model pair: Mary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R) · D +1.2 · reported percentage-point margin
Texas TX-34 HouseVicente Gonzalez (D) / Eric Flores (R) / Eddie Espinoza (GRE) / Chris Royal (LIB)	Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-18 – 2026-08-22700 · Likely voters	D 45% / R 42% / GRE 3% / LIB 2%No two-party model margin
Texas TX-28 HouseHenry Cuellar (D) / Tano Tijerina (R) / Marlon Duran (GRE)	Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-18 – 2026-08-22600 · Likely voters	D 45% / R 34% / GRE 6%No two-party model margin
Texas TX-15 HouseBobby Pulido (D) / Monica De La Cruz (R)	Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-18 – 2026-08-22700 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 45%D +5.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
California CA-07 HouseMai Vang (D) / Doris Matsui (D)	Data for Progress ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-08-18 – 2026-08-21651 · Likely voters	D 32% / D 28%No two-party model margin
North Carolina NC-07 HouseDavid Rouzer (R) / Kimberly Hardy (D)	Public Policy Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-08-19 – 2026-08-20517 · Registered voters	R 49% / D 43%R +6.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina NC-07 HouseDavid Rouzer (R) / Kimberly Hardy (D) / Maad Abu-Ghazalah (LIB)	Public Policy Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-08-19 – 2026-08-20517 · Registered voters	R 45% / D 39% / LIB 3%No two-party model margin
North Carolina NC-07 HouseGeneric Republican (R) / Generic Democrat (D)	Public Policy Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-08-19 – 2026-08-20517 · Registered voters	R 48% / D 43%R +5.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
California CA-40 HouseKen Calvert (R) / Young Kim (R)	Public Opinion Strategies ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-08-17 – 2026-08-20400 · Likely voters	R 35% / R 34%No two-party model margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-10 – 2026-08-20913 · Registered voters	D 48% / R 44%D +4.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-10 – 2026-08-20779 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 45%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +5.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Verasight ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-14 – 2026-08-191,514 · Adults	D 48% / R 41%D +7.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Verasight ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-14 – 2026-08-191,378 · Registered voters	D 49% / R 43%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +6.5 · normalized two-party margin
New Hampshire NH-02 HouseMaggie Goodlander (D) / Lily Tang Williams (R)	St. Anselm ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-17 – 2026-08-18701 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 35%Model pair: Maggie Goodlander (D) / Lily Tang Williams (R) · D +17.6 · normalized two-party margin
New Hampshire SenateChris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R)	St. Anselm ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-17 – 2026-08-181,411 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 41%Model pair: Chris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R) · D +7.0 · reported percentage-point margin
New Hampshire SenateChris Pappas (D) / Scott Brown (R)	St. Anselm ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-17 – 2026-08-181,411 · Likely voters	D 49% / R 37%D +12.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Arkansas SenateTom Cotton (R) / Hallie Shoffner (D) / Jeff Wadlin (LIB)	J.L. Partners ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-14 – 2026-08-18803 · Likely voters	R 51% / D 35% / LIB 4%Model pair: Hallie Shoffner (D) / Tom Cotton (R) · R +16.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-14 – 2026-08-171,610 · Adults	D 39% / R 32%D +7.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-14 – 2026-08-171,449 · Registered voters	D 46% / R 39%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +8.2 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (I)	The Bullfinch Group ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-14 – 2026-08-171,200 · Adults	D 40% / R 35% / I 10%No two-party model margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (I)	The Bullfinch Group ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-14 – 2026-08-171,000 · Registered voters	D 42% / R 37% / I 10%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +6.3 · normalized two-party margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc. ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-11 – 2026-08-17800 · Registered voters	D 46% / R 39%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +7.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Minnesota SenatePeggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) / Marisa Simonetti (I) / Rebecca Whiting (LIB)	SurveyUSA ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-13 – 2026-08-17661 · Likely voters	D 46% / R 41% / I 1% / LIB 1%Model pair: Peggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R) · D +5.0 · reported percentage-point margin
New York NY-21 HouseAnthony Constantino (R) / Blake Gendebien (D)	J.L. Partners ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-15 – 2026-08-17500 · Likely voters	R 53% / D 40%Model pair: Blake Gendebien (D) / Anthony Constantino (R) · R +14.0 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	Ipsos ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-14 – 2026-08-171,166 · Adults	D 35% / R 30% / OTH 4%No two-party model margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (OTH)	Ipsos ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-14 – 2026-08-17876 · Registered voters	D 41% / R 36% / OTH 4%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +6.5 · normalized two-party margin
Georgia SenateJon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R)	InsiderAdvantage ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-16 – 2026-08-17800 · Likely voters	D 50.1% / R 42.6%Model pair: Jon Ossoff (D) / Mike Collins (R) · D +7.5 · reported percentage-point margin
South Dakota SenateBrian Bengs (I) / Mike Rounds (R)	Impact Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-08-13 – 2026-08-17500 · Likely voters	I 44% / R 44%Model pair: Brian Bengs (I) / Mike Rounds (R) · Even · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-16 – 2026-08-171,000 · Likely voters	D 50.65% / R 43.04%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +8.1 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Echelon Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-13 – 2026-08-171,004 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 44%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +6.4 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Noble Predictive Insights ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-12 – 2026-08-162,533 · Registered voters	D 47% / R 42%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +5.6 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Morning Consult ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-13 – 2026-08-164,150 · Registered voters	D 47% / R 42%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +5.6 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Morning Consult ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-10 – 2026-08-1629,685 · Registered voters	D 46.2% / R 42.3%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +4.4 · normalized two-party margin
Kansas SenateAdam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R) / David Graham (LIB)	Global Strategy Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-08-12 – 2026-08-16800 · Likely voters	D 44% / R 43% / LIB 5%Model pair: Adam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R) · D +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Mississippi SenateCindy Hyde-Smith (R) / Scott Colom (D) / Ty Pinkins (I)	Data for Progress ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-08-05 – 2026-08-151,018 · Likely voters	R 44% / D 38% / I 7%Model pair: Scott Colom (D) / Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) · R +6.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Mississippi SenateCindy Hyde-Smith (R) / Scott Colom (D)	Data for Progress ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-08-05 – 2026-08-151,018 · Likely voters	R 47% / D 41%R +6.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateJames Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) / Ted Brown (LIB)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-05 – 2026-08-131,200 · Registered voters	D 42% / R 39% / LIB 3%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · D +3.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Idaho SenateJames Risch (R) / Todd Achilles (I) / Natalie Fleming (I) / Matt Loesby (LIB)	Peak Insights ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-08-11 – 2026-08-13500 · Likely voters	R 52% / I 18% / I 9% / LIB 2%Model pair: Todd Achilles (I) / James Risch (R) · R +34.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Nebraska SenateDan Osborn (I) / Pete Ricketts (R)	Impact Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-08-09 – 2026-08-13600 · Likely voters	I 47% / R 47%Model pair: Dan Osborn (I) / Pete Ricketts (R) · Even · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan MI-10 HouseChristina Hines (D) / Mike Bouchard (R)	Global Strategy Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-08-10 – 2026-08-13600 · Likely voters	D 45% / R 45%Model pair: Christina Hines (D) / Mike Bouchard (R) · Even · normalized two-party margin
Maine ME-02 HousePaul LePage (R) / Matt Dunlap (D)	DCCC Targeting Team ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-08-11 – 2026-08-13621 · Likely voters	R 49% / D 48%Model pair: Matt Dunlap (D) / Paul LePage (R) · R +1.0 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Change Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-08 – 2026-08-132,045 · Registered voters	D 45% / R 40%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +5.9 · normalized two-party margin
Massachusetts SenateEd Markey (D) / John Deaton (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-05 – 2026-08-12800 · Registered voters	D 51% / R 30%Model pair: Ed Markey (D) / John Deaton (R) · D +21.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Massachusetts SenateSeth Moulton (D) / John Deaton (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-05 – 2026-08-12800 · Registered voters	D 49% / R 25%D +24.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Florida FL-22 HouseCasey Askar (R) / Pia Dandiya (D)	Tavern Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-10 – 2026-08-12551 · Likely voters	R 50% / D 50%Even · Reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R)	High Point University ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-03 – 2026-08-12800 · Registered voters	D 48% / R 41%D +7.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R)	High Point University ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-03 – 2026-08-12660 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 45%Model pair: Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) · D +5.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Arkansas AR-02 HouseChris Jones (D) / French Hill (R)	Hendrix College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-11 – 2026-08-121,112 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 44%Model pair: Chris Jones (D) / French Hill (R) · D +4.3 · normalized two-party margin
Arkansas SenateHallie Shoffner (D) / Tom Cotton (R) / Jeff Wadlin (LIB)	Hendrix College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-11 – 2026-08-121,217 · Likely voters	D 47.4% / R 44% / LIB 2.95%Model pair: Hallie Shoffner (D) / Tom Cotton (R) · D +3.4 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Wave Polling and Research/Verasight ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-07 – 2026-08-111,591 · Registered voters	D 50% / R 43%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +7.5 · normalized two-party margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-09 – 2026-08-11877 · Likely voters	D 48% / R 47%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Angus Reid Global ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-08 – 2026-08-111,525 · Adults	D 45% / R 36%D +9.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Angus Reid Global ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-08 – 2026-08-111,132 · Likely voters	D 47% / R 38%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +10.6 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-07 – 2026-08-101,588 · Adults	D 40% / R 32%D +8.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	YouGov ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-07 – 2026-08-101,419 · Registered voters	D 46% / R 40%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +7.0 · normalized two-party margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	TIPP Insights ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-08-06 – 2026-08-101,528 · Registered voters	D 42.55% / R 39.19%D +3.4 · Reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	TIPP Insights ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-08-06 – 2026-08-101,215 · Likely voters	D 45.44% / R 42.27%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +3.2 · reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R)	Harper Polling ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-09 – 2026-08-10600 · Likely voters	D 51.5% / R 39%Model pair: Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) · D +12.5 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R)	GBAO ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-08-06 – 2026-08-10800 · Likely voters	D 50% / R 44%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · D +6.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Focaldata ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-07 – 2026-08-101,857 · Likely voters	D 51.37% / R 45.26%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +6.3 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Focaldata ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-07 – 2026-08-101,913 · Registered voters	D 48.8% / R 43.24%D +5.6 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Focaldata ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-07 – 2026-08-102,152 · Adults	D 47.5% / R 41.13%D +6.4 · Reported percentage-point margin
Texas SenateKen Paxton (R) / James Talarico (D)	Emerson College ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-09 – 2026-08-101,000 · Likely voters	R 47.25% / D 46.25%Model pair: James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R) · R +1.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Ohio OH-07 HouseBrian Poindexter (D) / Max Miller (R)	Bedrock Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-08-07 – 2026-08-10866 · Likely voters	D 43% / R 35%D +8.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Ohio OH-07 HouseGeneric Republican (R) / Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Libertarian (LIB)	Bedrock Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-08-07 – 2026-08-10866 · Likely voters	R 44% / D 43% / LIB 2%No two-party model margin
Ohio OH-07 HouseGeneric Republican (R) / Brian Poindexter (D) / Generic Libertarian (LIB)	Bedrock Polling ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-08-07 – 2026-08-10866 · Likely voters	R 44% / D 39% / LIB 1%No two-party model margin
Ohio SenateSherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R)	Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-06 – 2026-08-101,008 · Registered voters	D 53% / R 45%Model pair: Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R) · D +8.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Michigan SenateMike Rogers (R) / Abdul El-Sayed (D)	Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-06 – 2026-08-101,006 · Registered voters	R 51% / D 47%Model pair: Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R) · R +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Maine SenateTroy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R)	Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-06 – 2026-08-101,000 · Registered voters	D 48% / R 46%Model pair: Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R) · D +2.0 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) / Generic Candidate (I)	AlphaROC ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-08 – 2026-08-101,000 · Adults	D 41% / R 37.3% / I 5.8%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +4.7 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Morning Consult ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-03 – 2026-08-0929,719 · Registered voters	D 46.5% / R 42.4%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +4.6 · normalized two-party margin
Wisconsin WI-01 HouseBryan Steil (R) / Mitchell Berman (D)	Impact Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-08-06 – 2026-08-09400 · Likely voters	R 49% / D 48%Model pair: Mitchell Berman (D) / Bryan Steil (R) · R +1.0 · normalized two-party margin
Wisconsin WI-01 HouseGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Impact Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-08-06 – 2026-08-09400 · Likely voters	D 44% / R 44%Even · Reported percentage-point margin
Ohio OH-15 HouseMike Carey (R) / Don Leonard (D) / Brennan Barrington (LIB)	Hart Research Associates ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-08-06 – 2026-08-09401 · Likely voters	R 41% / D 37% / LIB 10%No two-party model margin
Pennsylvania PA-01 HouseBrian Fitzpatrick (R) / Bob Harvie (D)	Global Strategy Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-08-05 – 2026-08-09500 · Likely voters	R 47% / D 43%Model pair: Bob Harvie (D) / Brian Fitzpatrick (R) · R +4.4 · normalized two-party margin
New York NY-21 HouseBlake Gendebien (D) / Anthony Constantino (R) / Chris Schmidt (I)	SurveyUSA ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-04 – 2026-08-08612 · Likely voters	D 43% / R 39% / I 5%Model pair: Blake Gendebien (D) / Anthony Constantino (R) · D +4.9 · normalized two-party margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	ActiVote ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-07-29 – 2026-08-081,000 · Likely voters	D 52.5% / R 47.5%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +5.0 · normalized two-party margin
Idaho SenateJames Risch (R) / Todd Achilles (I) / Matt Loesby (LIB)	The Bullfinch Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-08-04 – 2026-08-07608 · Likely voters	R 34% / I 30% / LIB 4%Model pair: Todd Achilles (I) / James Risch (R) · R +4.0 · reported percentage-point margin
Idaho SenateTodd Achilles (I) / James Risch (R)	The Bullfinch Group ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-08-04 – 2026-08-07608 · Likely voters	I 38% / R 33%I +5.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	Cygnal Political ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-06 – 2026-08-071,500 · Likely voters	D 48.8% / R 41.9%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +7.6 · normalized two-party margin
Florida FL-13 HouseAnna Paulina Luna (R) / Leela Gray (D) / Tony D’Arrigo (I)	GQR ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-08-04 – 2026-08-06500 · Likely voters	R 47% / D 44% / I 4%No two-party model margin
Florida FL-13 HouseAnna Paulina Luna (R) / Leela Gray (D)	Fabrizio, Lee & Associates ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-08-04 – 2026-08-06400 · Likely voters	R 49% / D 41%R +8.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Oklahoma SenateKevin Hern (R) / N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas (D) / Curtis Stinnett (I) / Sevier White (LIB) / Ron Meinhardt (I)	Cole Hargrave ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-03 – 2026-08-06500 · Registered voters	R 49% / D 25% / I 4% / LIB 3% / I 1%No two-party model margin
Oklahoma SenateKevin Hern (R) / Jim Priest (D) / Ron Meinhardt (I) / Curtis Stinnett (I) / Sevier White (LIB)	Cole Hargrave ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-03 – 2026-08-06500 · Registered voters	R 48% / D 27% / I 5% / I 3% / LIB 2%Model pair: Jim Priest (D) / Kevin Hern (R) · R +21.0 · reported percentage-point margin
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R)	Change Research ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Used in model	2026-08-03 – 2026-08-06915 · Likely voters	D 50.05% / R 42.93%Model pair: Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R) · D +7.1 · reported percentage-point margin
National generic ballotGeneric Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R)	John Zogby Strategies ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-04 – 2026-08-05921 · Likely voters	D 50.6% / R 39.6%Model pair: Generic Democrat (D) / Generic Republican (R) · D +12.2 · normalized two-party margin
Alaska AK-01 HouseNick Begich (R) / Bill Hill (I)	GBAO ↗Partisan / sponsored flag · Not used in model	2026-08-03 – 2026-08-05500 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	R 46% / I 42%R +4.0 · Reported percentage-point margin
Alaska AK-01 HouseNick Begich (R) / Bill Hill (I) / Eric Hafner (D) / Clay Strickland (R)	Alaska Survey Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-02 – 2026-08-051,371 · Likely votersNot marked as a final ranked-choice round	R 47.9% / I 33.2% / D 14.7% / R 4.2%No two-party model margin
Alaska AK-01 HouseNick Begich (R) / Bill Hill (I)	Alaska Survey Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Not used in model	2026-08-02 – 2026-08-051,371 · Likely votersFinal ranked-choice round	R 53.6% / I 46.5%R +7.1 · Reported percentage-point margin
Alaska SenateMary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R)	Alaska Survey Research ↗No partisan flag in source · Used in model	2026-08-02 – 2026-08-051,371 · Likely votersFinal ranked-choice round	D 50.8% / R 49.2%Model pair: Mary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R) · D +1.6 · reported percentage-point margin

LV = likely voters; RV = registered voters. Percentages are reported candidate values. House model margins are normalized to the Democratic–Republican two-party total; Senate margins are reported percentage-point differences. Missing field-start dates are not inferred. A source flag is metadata, not a quality rating.

05 / READ THE MODEL, TOO

Useful uncertainty.
Visible assumptions.

A forecast should make you more informed about what could happen, and about what its evidence cannot establish.

Full Senate methodology ↗House methodology and coverage ↗

What is a projection, and what is a poll?

A poll is a survey observation with field dates and a defined population. This model combines recent polling with a historical-results prior, then simulates correlated national and state errors. A model probability is conditional on these assumptions. It is not a poll result or a certainty.

Why do races move together?

Polling errors and the national environment can affect several races at once. The Senate model includes a shared national-error component. Adding isolated race probabilities as if every race were independent would misstate the range of possible chamber outcomes.

How should I read the what-if desk?

The national slider changes assumed race margins. An assumed winner forces that outcome without learning new information about other races. Scenario results describe the model under your selected assumptions; they are not a replacement for the published baseline or a new evidence-based forecast.

What has actually been validated?

Historical walk-forward checks test the results-only Senate baseline. Full polling aggregation, current candidate selection, chamber correlation and these scenario tools are not independently calibrated end to end. The House has incomplete district baselines. Experimental odds should be read with those limitations.

Where do the data come from?

Polling: New York Times Senate data and House data, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and transformed by DutyStation. Historical Senate results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. House baseline results: House Clerk. Each polling row links to the source release supplied in the dataset.

FOR HUMANS AND MACHINES

Take the data with you.

Stable snapshots, explicit timestamps and source links make this page inspectable and citable.

Election Lab JSON ↗Senate JSON ↗House JSON ↗Original candidate replies ↗

One election.Many possibilities.

A probability is a range of futures.

Where the Senate could land

Different routes through the same election.

Same headline margin. Different foundations.

Ohio

Michigan

Maine

What if the polls miss together?

Change the national environment.

A starting point. Then test the range.

Close races. Uneven evidence.

Why does a race look this way?

Iowa

Show the evidence.

Useful uncertainty.Visible assumptions.

Take the data with you.

One election.
Many possibilities.

Useful uncertainty.
Visible assumptions.