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Explore Civics ↗ THE 2026 MIDTERMSSNAPSHOT 2026-09-26 UTC
THE RACE FOR THE SENATE
2026 Senate.
Every possibility.
A clearer view of the road to a majority.
Explore the polls, the map, and the uncertainty.
An open, experimental model. Live polling + historical results. Historical tests cover the baseline only; full forecast calibration is not yet established.
The balance of power
EXPECTED SEATS · OUT OF 100— Democratic caucusRepublicans —
01 / THE BATTLEGROUND
One nation. 35 Senate races.
DemocraticRepublicanNo race
Select a state to explore its race. Gold indicates an independent lead.
02 / POSSIBLE OUTCOMES
There’s more than one path.
Simulated Democratic-caucus seat totals. Each bar is a share of simulated elections.
03 / THE DIRECTION OF TRAVEL
A forecast, in motion.
Democratic control probability from saved daily snapshots.
History begins with this site's first published forecast. No synthetic historical trend.
EXPLORE A DIFFERENT ELECTION
What if the polls miss?
Shift every race’s margin together. This is a sensitivity scenario, not a new forecast.
04 / RACE BY RACE
The seats that decide it.
| STATE / RACE | MATCHUP | PROJECTED MARGIN | WIN PROBABILITY | POLLS USED |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Everett Wess / Barry Moore | R +16.9 | R >99% | 1 |
| Alaska | Mary Peltola / Dan Sullivan | D +0.8 | D 56% | 7 |
| Arkansas | Hallie Shoffner / Tom Cotton | R +8.3 | R 94% | 3 |
| Colorado | Democratic candidate / Republican candidate | D +12.7 | D 77% | 0 |
| Delaware | Democratic candidate / Republican candidate | D +15.9 | D 83% | 0 |
| Florida | Angie Nixon / Ashley Moody | R +5.9 | R 89% | 6 |
| Georgia | Jon Ossoff / Mike Collins | D +7.6 | D 95% | 8 |
| Idaho | Todd Achilles / James Risch | R +19.8 | R >99% | 2 |
| Illinois | Democratic candidate / Republican candidate | D +12.9 | D 78% | 0 |
| Iowa | Josh Turek / Ashley Hinson | R +0.2 | R 52% | 11 |
| Kansas | Adam Hamilton / Roger Marshall | R +1.5 | R 63% | 5 |
| Kentucky | Charles Booker / Andy Barr | R +11.1 | R 97% | 1 |
| Louisiana | Jamie Davis / Julia Letlow | R +6.0 | R 85% | 1 |
| Maine | Troy Jackson / Susan Collins | D +2.6 | D 72% | 12 |
| Massachusetts | Ed Markey / John Deaton | D +21.8 | D >99% | 3 |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed / Mike Rogers | D +2.4 | D 70% | 25 |
| Minnesota | Peggy Flanagan / Michele Tafoya | D +2.4 | D 69% | 5 |
| Mississippi | Scott Colom / Cindy Hyde-Smith | R +7.9 | R 91% | 1 |
| Montana | Seth Bodnar / Kurt Alme | R +13.6 | R 97% | 7 |
| Nebraska | Dan Osborn / Pete Ricketts | R +1.8 | R 65% | 4 |
| New Hampshire | Chris Pappas / John Sununu | D +5.0 | D 85% | 6 |
| New Jersey | Democratic candidate / Republican candidate | D +7.9 | D 68% | 0 |
| New Mexico | Ben Ray Luján / Larry Marker | D +14.1 | D >99% | 1 |
| North Carolina | Roy Cooper / Michael Whatley | D +7.7 | D 95% | 16 |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown / Jon Husted | D +2.6 | D 71% | 9 |
| Oklahoma | Jim Priest / Kevin Hern | R +22.3 | R >99% | 1 |
| Oregon | Democratic candidate / Republican candidate | D +15.2 | D 82% | 0 |
| Rhode Island | Jack Reed / Raymond McKay | D +19.5 | D >99% | 2 |
| South Carolina | Annie Andrews / Darline Graham | R +5.3 | R 85% | 3 |
| South Dakota | Brian Bengs / Mike Rounds | R +3.7 | R 70% | 3 |
| Tennessee | Marquita Bradshaw / Bill Hagerty | R +25.2 | R >99% | 1 |
| Texas | James Talarico / Ken Paxton | D +2.2 | D 69% | 22 |
| Virginia | Democratic candidate / Republican candidate | D +7.6 | D 67% | 0 |
| West Virginia | Democratic candidate / Republican candidate | R +38.2 | R 99% | 0 |
| Wyoming | Democratic candidate / Republican candidate | R +42.7 | R >99% | 0 |
BEHIND THE NUMBERS
Show the work.
Our forecast is a reproducible baseline, built to make its assumptions visible. Probabilities describe uncertainty, not certainty about an election result.
Read historical test results ↗Where the data comes from
Polling data collected by The New York Times, reused under CC BY 4.0. DutyStation filters and aggregates it independently; The Times does not endorse this forecast. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab, U.S. Senate 1976–2024 and presidential results 1976–2024. Race schedule: U.S. Senate, plus Florida and Ohio special elections. Candidate names are observed polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
How the forecast works
We fit a historical regression from a state’s prior competitive Senate result and previous presidential result to its next Senate result, using a rolling 24-year training window. Current polls update that prior with sample-size and recency weights, one question per poll, and a cap on repeated polls from the same pollster. Effective polling information is calculated across pollsters so repeated releases cannot masquerade as independent evidence. Polls are limited to the selected matchup and the last 90 days, with likely-voter samples preferred.
We simulate 30,000 elections with a shared national error and race-specific uncertainty. No-poll races retain wide historical uncertainty. Expected seats include 34 continuing Democratic-caucus seats and 31 Republican seats. Republicans control a 50–50 split through the vice president.
Independent challengers are modeled separately. We do not assume they will caucus with either party; outcomes requiring their support are shown as unresolved. The scenario slider changes expected seats only.
What has—and hasn't—been validated
Loading historical validation…
The historical test covers the results-only baseline, not the polling blend, national-error assumption, or chamber-control probabilities. Candidate changes, third-party vote splitting, runoffs, ranked-choice transfers, and correlated regional errors are simplified. Do not read this beta as a fully calibrated professional forecast.
Updates, reproducibility, and missing data
Polling refreshes every four hours. A failed refresh keeps the last good forecast and exposes its original timestamp. Historical snapshots are saved daily using UTC dates. Downloads include source timestamps, model version, input hashes, selected polls, uncertainty, and simulation seed. Missing polling stays missing; no polls or trends are invented.
Forecast JSON · Selected polls · Validation JSON · Update health
2026 Senate elections by state
Read the polling, model assumptions, and available evidence for each state.
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