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2026 U.S. HOUSE

California House districts

Explore all 52 congressional districts in California.

Snapshot: · Model house-0.1.1

0 of 52 districts have comparable two-party baselines. District projections are experimental and uncalibrated. Unmodeled districts are not toss-ups. Full House-control odds are withheld.
California congressional district projections
DistrictMarginWin probabilityPollsData basis
CA-01Not modeledUnavailable1Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-02Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-03Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-04Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-05Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-06Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-07Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-08Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-09Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-10Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-11Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-12Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-13Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-14Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-15Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-16Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-17Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-18Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-19Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-20Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-21Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-22Not modeledUnavailable1Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-23Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-24Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-25Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-26Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-27Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-28Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-29Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-30Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-31Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-32Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-33Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-34Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-35Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-36Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-37Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-38Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-39Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-40Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-41Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-42Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-43Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-44Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-45Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-46Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-47Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-48Not modeledUnavailable4Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-49Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-50Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-51Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline
CA-52Not modeledUnavailable0Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline

CA-01: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

Latest observed polling matchup: Mike McGuire / James Gallagher. This is not an official nominee roster.

Qualifying polls in this snapshot
Pollster / sourceEnd dateSamplePopulationTwo-party margin (normalized)
USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab ↗2026-10-26444lvD +15.5

CA-02: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-03: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-04: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-05: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-06: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-07: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-08: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-09: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-10: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-11: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-12: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-13: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-14: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-15: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-16: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-17: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-18: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-19: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-20: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-21: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-22: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

Latest observed polling matchup: Randy Villegas / David G. Valadao. This is not an official nominee roster.

Qualifying polls in this snapshot
Pollster / sourceEnd dateSamplePopulationTwo-party margin (normalized)
USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab ↗2026-10-28356lvD +10.2

CA-23: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-24: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-25: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-26: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-27: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-28: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-29: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-30: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-31: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-32: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-33: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-34: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-35: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-36: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-37: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-38: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-39: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-40: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-41: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-42: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-43: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-44: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-45: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-46: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-47: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-48: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

Latest observed polling matchup: Marni von Wilpert / Jim Desmond. This is not an official nominee roster.

Qualifying polls in this snapshot
Pollster / sourceEnd dateSamplePopulationTwo-party margin (normalized)
USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab ↗2026-10-27474lvD +8.3
Tarrance Group ↗2026-10-20410lvD +3.3
SurveyUSA ↗2026-10-07518lvD +10.6
SurveyUSA ↗2026-09-01522lvD +3.4

CA-49: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-50: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-51: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

CA-52: district evidence

Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.

No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.

Sources: House Clerk official 2024 results, Census congressional district data, and NYT polling (CC BY 4.0; independently modified).

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Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.

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