Civics & public records
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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. HOUSE
Connecticut House districts
Explore all 5 congressional districts in Connecticut.
Snapshot: · Model house-0.1.1
5 of 5 districts have comparable two-party baselines. District projections are experimental and uncalibrated. Unmodeled districts are not toss-ups. Full House-control odds are withheld.
| District | Margin | Win probability | Polls | Data basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT-01 | D +40.7 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| CT-02 | D +27.9 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| CT-03 | D +29.6 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| CT-04 | D +35.9 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| CT-05 | D +17.9 | D 96% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
CT-01: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +28.9. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
CT-02: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +16.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
CT-03: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +17.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
CT-04: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +24.1. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
CT-05: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +6.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Jahana Hayes / Chris Shea. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OnMessage Inc. ↗ | 2026-10-01 | 400 | lv | D +6.2 |
Sources: House Clerk official 2024 results, Census congressional district data, and NYT polling (CC BY 4.0; independently modified).
Explore the interactive House map ↗ · House methodology and limitations
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN CONNECTICUT
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Connecticut bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news
Candidate records & policy profiles
Luke Bronin · Amy "Doc" Chai · Mary Sanders · Joe Courtney · George Austin · Rosa DeLauro · Chris Lancia · Tom Egan · Jim Himes · Michael Goldstein · Ben Wesley · Damon Cerreta · Jahana Hayes · Chris Shea
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.