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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. HOUSE
Illinois House districts
Explore all 17 congressional districts in Illinois.
Snapshot: · Model house-0.1.0
15 of 17 districts have comparable two-party baselines. District projections are experimental and uncalibrated. Unmodeled districts are not toss-ups. Full House-control odds are withheld.
| District | Margin | Win probability | Polls | Data basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL-01 | D +42.6 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| IL-02 | D +46.0 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| IL-03 | D +45.5 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| IL-04 | D +52.3 | D >99% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| IL-05 | D +48.8 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| IL-06 | D +19.3 | D 97% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| IL-07 | D +70.9 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| IL-08 | D +25.0 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| IL-09 | D +47.6 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| IL-10 | D +30.8 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| IL-11 | D +22.1 | D 98% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| IL-12 | R +37.5 | R >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| IL-13 | D +27.1 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| IL-14 | D +21.1 | D 98% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| IL-15 | Not modeled | Unavailable | 0 | No two-party 2024 contest |
| IL-16 | Not modeled | Unavailable | 0 | No two-party 2024 contest |
| IL-17 | D +19.7 | D 97% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
IL-01: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +31.7. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
IL-02: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +35.1. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
IL-03: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +34.6. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
IL-04: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +42.4. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Patty Garcia / Lupe Castillo. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group ↗ | 2026-08-03 | 653 | rv | D +38.8 |
IL-05: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +37.9. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
IL-06: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +8.4. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
IL-07: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +66.6. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
IL-08: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +14.1. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
IL-09: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +36.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
IL-10: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +20.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
IL-11: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +11.2. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
IL-12: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +48.4. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
IL-13: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +16.2. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
IL-14: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +10.2. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
IL-15: district evidence
No two-party 2024 contest. Census 120th Congress district layer.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
IL-16: district evidence
No two-party 2024 contest. Census 120th Congress district layer.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
IL-17: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +8.9. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
Sources: House Clerk official 2024 results, Census congressional district data, and NYT polling (CC BY 4.0; independently modified).
Explore the interactive House map ↗ · House methodology and limitations
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN ILLINOIS
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Illinois bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news