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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. HOUSE
Iowa House districts
Explore all 4 congressional districts in Iowa.
Snapshot: · Model house-0.1.0
4 of 4 districts have comparable two-party baselines. District projections are experimental and uncalibrated. Unmodeled districts are not toss-ups. Full House-control odds are withheld.
| District | Margin | Win probability | Polls | Data basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA-01 | D +10.5 | D 85% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| IA-02 | R +4.9 | R 68% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| IA-03 | D +7.0 | D 75% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| IA-04 | R +23.6 | R 99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
IA-01: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +0.2. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Christina Bohannan / Mariannette Miller-Meeks. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group ↗ | 2026-07-16 | 705 | lv | D +6.7 |
IA-02: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +15.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
IA-03: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +3.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
IA-04: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +34.4. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
Sources: House Clerk official 2024 results, Census congressional district data, and NYT polling (CC BY 4.0; independently modified).
Explore the interactive House map ↗ · House methodology and limitations
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN IOWA
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Iowa bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news