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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. HOUSE
Maine House districts
Explore all 2 congressional districts in Maine.
Snapshot: · Model house-0.1.1
2 of 2 districts have comparable two-party baselines. District projections are experimental and uncalibrated. Unmodeled districts are not toss-ups. Full House-control odds are withheld.
| District | Margin | Win probability | Polls | Data basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ME-01 | D +34.1 | D >99% | 2 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| ME-02 | D +6.4 | D 83% | 6 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
ME-01: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +23.5. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Chellie Pingree / Ronald Russell. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire ↗ | 2026-10-31 | 839 | lv | D +34.0 |
| University of New Hampshire ↗ | 2026-09-21 | 657 | lv | D +23.9 |
ME-02: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +0.7. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Matt Dunlap / Paul LePage. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire ↗ | 2026-10-31 | 793 | lv | R +5.1 |
| Tulchin Research ↗ | 2026-10-14 | 500 | lv | D +4.2 |
| Tulchin Research ↗ | 2026-09-30 | 500 | lv | D +2.0 |
| University of New Hampshire ↗ | 2026-09-21 | 622 | lv | D +6.2 |
| Impact Research ↗ | 2026-09-12 | 500 | lv | R +4.3 |
| DCCC Targeting Team ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 621 | lv | R +1.0 |
Sources: House Clerk official 2024 results, Census congressional district data, and NYT polling (CC BY 4.0; independently modified).
Explore the interactive House map ↗ · House methodology and limitations
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN MAINE
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Maine bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news
Candidate records & policy profiles
Chellie Pingree · Ron Russell · Matt Dunlap · Paul LePage
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.