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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. HOUSE
Maryland House districts
Explore all 8 congressional districts in Maryland.
Snapshot: · Model house-0.1.0
8 of 8 districts have comparable two-party baselines. District projections are experimental and uncalibrated. Unmodeled districts are not toss-ups. Full House-control odds are withheld.
| District | Margin | Win probability | Polls | Data basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MD-01 | R +11.9 | R 88% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MD-02 | D +29.9 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MD-03 | D +32.9 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MD-04 | D +70.9 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MD-05 | D +46.7 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MD-06 | D +17.2 | D 95% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MD-07 | D +70.9 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MD-08 | D +68.8 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
MD-01: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +22.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Dan Schwartz / Andy Harris. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z to A Research ↗ | 2026-07-27 | 482 | lv | R +14.3 |
MD-02: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +19.1. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MD-03: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +22.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MD-04: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +77.4. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MD-05: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +35.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MD-06: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +6.3. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MD-07: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +64.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MD-08: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +57.9. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
Sources: House Clerk official 2024 results, Census congressional district data, and NYT polling (CC BY 4.0; independently modified).
Explore the interactive House map ↗ · House methodology and limitations
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN MARYLAND
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Maryland bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news