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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. HOUSE
Michigan House districts
Explore all 13 congressional districts in Michigan.
Snapshot: · Model house-0.1.1
13 of 13 districts have comparable two-party baselines. District projections are experimental and uncalibrated. Unmodeled districts are not toss-ups. Full House-control odds are withheld.
| District | Margin | Win probability | Polls | Data basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MI-01 | R +10.1 | R 83% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MI-02 | R +22.7 | R 98% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MI-03 | D +22.0 | D 98% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MI-04 | R +0.0 | R 50% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MI-05 | R +21.6 | R 98% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MI-06 | D +39.7 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MI-07 | D +8.0 | D 81% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MI-08 | D +18.7 | D 96% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MI-09 | R +26.9 | R >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MI-10 | D +5.4 | D 70% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MI-11 | D +30.8 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MI-12 | D +58.3 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MI-13 | D +58.9 | D >99% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
MI-01: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +21.9. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MI-02: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +34.5. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MI-03: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +10.1. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MI-04: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +11.9. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Sean McCann / Bill Huizenga. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO ↗ | 2026-09-16 | 500 | lv | D +1.1 |
MI-05: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +33.4. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MI-06: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +27.9. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MI-07: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +3.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: William Lawrence / Tom Barrett. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College ↗ | 2026-10-14 | 314 | lv | D +8.2 |
MI-08: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +6.9. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MI-09: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +38.7. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MI-10: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +6.4. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Christina Hines / Mike Bouchard. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 600 | lv | D +0.0 |
MI-11: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +19.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MI-12: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +46.5. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MI-13: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +47.3. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Donavan McKinney / Taras Nykoriak. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Center for Strategic Politics ↗ | 2026-10-30 | 310 | lv | D +56.8 |
Sources: House Clerk official 2024 results, Census congressional district data, and NYT polling (CC BY 4.0; independently modified).
Explore the interactive House map ↗ · House methodology and limitations
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN MICHIGAN
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Michigan bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news
Candidate records & policy profiles
Jack Bergman · Callie Barr · LaVeta Davenport · Arnett Satterla · Robert "Doc" Kovaly · Liz Hakola · Zebulon Featherly · John Moolenaar · Ben Ambrose · Charlotte Magoon · Hillary Scholten · Terri DeBoer · Bill Huizenga · Sean McCann · Shafina Che Barnett · Tim Walberg · Christian Vukasovich · Jim Bronke · Ronald Muszynski · Sharon Renier · Debbie Dingell · Heather Smiley · Clyde Shabazz · Tim Teagan · Linda Rayburn · Mike Mickevicius · Tom Barrett · William Lawrence · Shane Dedrick · Felix Thibodeau · Kristen McDonald Rivet · Tom Smith · Jim Casha · C. Mia Pettus · Kathy Goodwin · Lisa McClain · Ray Pooley · Destiny Clayton · Kevin Vayko · Jim Walkowicz · Jasen Cartwright · John Vlahos · Mike Bouchard Jr · Christina Hines · Kwabena "Cubby" Nkromo · Mike Saliba · Andrea Kirby · Jeremy Moss · Ethan Baker · Ryan Teasdale · Farid Ishac · Anil Kumar · Rashida Tlaib · James Hooper · Brenda Sanders · Marc Sosnowski · Gary Walkowicz · Donavan McKinney · Taras "TP" Nykoriak · Raelyn Light · Chris Dardzinski · Simone Coleman
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.