Civics & public records
Follow legislation, recorded votes, representatives, and state government through Sailor Bob Civics.
Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. HOUSE
Michigan House districts
Explore all 13 congressional districts in Michigan.
Snapshot: · Model house-0.1.0
13 of 13 districts have comparable two-party baselines. District projections are experimental and uncalibrated. Unmodeled districts are not toss-ups. Full House-control odds are withheld.
| District | Margin | Win probability | Polls | Data basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MI-01 | R +11.0 | R 85% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MI-02 | R +23.7 | R 99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MI-03 | D +21.0 | D 98% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MI-04 | R +0.8 | R 53% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MI-05 | R +22.6 | R 98% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MI-06 | D +38.7 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MI-07 | D +7.0 | D 75% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MI-08 | D +17.8 | D 95% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MI-09 | R +27.8 | R >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MI-10 | D +4.3 | D 66% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MI-11 | D +29.9 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MI-12 | D +57.4 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MI-13 | D +58.2 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
MI-01: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +21.9. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MI-02: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +34.5. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MI-03: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +10.1. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MI-04: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +11.9. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Sean McCann / Bill Huizenga. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO ↗ | 2026-09-16 | 500 | lv | D +1.1 |
MI-05: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +33.4. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MI-06: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +27.9. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MI-07: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +3.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: William Lawrence / Tom Barrett. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress ↗ | 2026-06-30 | 772 | lv | D +2.1 |
MI-08: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +6.9. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MI-09: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +38.7. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MI-10: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +6.4. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Christina Hines / Mike Bouchard. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 600 | lv | D +0.0 |
MI-11: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +19.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MI-12: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +46.5. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MI-13: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +47.3. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
Sources: House Clerk official 2024 results, Census congressional district data, and NYT polling (CC BY 4.0; independently modified).
Explore the interactive House map ↗ · House methodology and limitations
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN MICHIGAN
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Michigan bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news