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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. HOUSE
Minnesota House districts
Explore all 8 congressional districts in Minnesota.
Snapshot: · Model house-0.1.0
8 of 8 districts have comparable two-party baselines. District projections are experimental and uncalibrated. Unmodeled districts are not toss-ups. Full House-control odds are withheld.
| District | Margin | Win probability | Polls | Data basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MN-01 | R +5.2 | R 71% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MN-02 | D +23.3 | D >99% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MN-03 | D +27.9 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MN-04 | D +45.6 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MN-05 | D +61.2 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MN-06 | R +14.2 | R 91% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MN-07 | R +30.2 | R >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MN-08 | R +5.2 | R 69% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
MN-01: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +17.1. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Jake Johnson / Brad Finstad. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO ↗ | 2026-09-21 | 500 | lv | D +1.1 |
MN-02: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +13.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Matt Little / Eric Pratt. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research ↗ | 2026-09-13 | 500 | lv | D +13.0 |
MN-03: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +17.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MN-04: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +34.7. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MN-05: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +50.3. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MN-06: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +25.1. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MN-07: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +41.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MN-08: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +16.1. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
Sources: House Clerk official 2024 results, Census congressional district data, and NYT polling (CC BY 4.0; independently modified).
Explore the interactive House map ↗ · House methodology and limitations
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Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Minnesota bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news