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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. HOUSE
Mississippi House districts
Explore all 4 congressional districts in Mississippi.
Snapshot: · Model house-0.1.1
3 of 4 districts have comparable two-party baselines. District projections are experimental and uncalibrated. Unmodeled districts are not toss-ups. Full House-control odds are withheld.
| District | Margin | Win probability | Polls | Data basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MS-01 | R +27.8 | R >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MS-02 | D +35.9 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MS-03 | Not modeled | Unavailable | 0 | No two-party 2024 contest |
| MS-04 | R +36.1 | R >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
MS-01: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +39.6. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MS-02: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +24.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MS-03: district evidence
No two-party 2024 contest. Census 120th Congress district layer.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MS-04: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +47.9. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
Sources: House Clerk official 2024 results, Census congressional district data, and NYT polling (CC BY 4.0; independently modified).
Explore the interactive House map ↗ · House methodology and limitations
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN MISSISSIPPI
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Mississippi bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news
Candidate records & policy profiles
Trent Kelly · Cliff Johnson · Johnny Baucom · Bennie Thompson · Ron Eller · Bennie Foster · Michael Guest · Michael Chiaradio · Erik Kiehle · Mike Ezell · Jeffrey Hulum · Carl Boyanton
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.