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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. HOUSE
Missouri House districts
Explore all 8 congressional districts in Missouri.
Snapshot: · Model house-0.1.1
8 of 8 districts have comparable two-party baselines. District projections are experimental and uncalibrated. Unmodeled districts are not toss-ups. Full House-control odds are withheld.
| District | Margin | Win probability | Polls | Data basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MO-01 | D +71.8 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MO-02 | D +0.5 | D 53% | 3 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MO-03 | R +15.1 | R 92% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MO-04 | R +34.0 | R >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MO-05 | D +36.4 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MO-06 | R +33.0 | R >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MO-07 | R +34.5 | R >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MO-08 | R +43.7 | R >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
MO-01: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. 119th Congress boundaries; Census warns its 120th Missouri layer may not reflect the election plan.
2024 two-party result: D +61.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MO-02: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. 119th Congress boundaries; Census warns its 120th Missouri layer may not reflect the election plan.
2024 two-party result: R +12.4. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Fred Wellman / Ann Wagner. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College ↗ | 2026-11-01 | 413 | lv | D +0.8 |
| Emerson College ↗ | 2026-10-14 | 401 | lv | D +5.2 |
| Remington ↗ | 2026-09-15 | 565 | lv | D +1.1 |
MO-03: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. 119th Congress boundaries; Census warns its 120th Missouri layer may not reflect the election plan.
2024 two-party result: R +26.9. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MO-04: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. 119th Congress boundaries; Census warns its 120th Missouri layer may not reflect the election plan.
2024 two-party result: R +45.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MO-05: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. 119th Congress boundaries; Census warns its 120th Missouri layer may not reflect the election plan.
2024 two-party result: D +24.6. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MO-06: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. 119th Congress boundaries; Census warns its 120th Missouri layer may not reflect the election plan.
2024 two-party result: R +44.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MO-07: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. 119th Congress boundaries; Census warns its 120th Missouri layer may not reflect the election plan.
2024 two-party result: R +46.3. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
MO-08: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. 119th Congress boundaries; Census warns its 120th Missouri layer may not reflect the election plan.
2024 two-party result: R +55.5. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
Sources: House Clerk official 2024 results, Census congressional district data, and NYT polling (CC BY 4.0; independently modified).
Explore the interactive House map ↗ · House methodology and limitations
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN MISSOURI
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Missouri bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news
Candidate records & policy profiles
Wesley Bell · Paul Berry · Tom Schmitz · Ann Wagner · Fred "FP" Wellman · Brandon Daugherty · Bob Onder · Bethany Mann · Jim Higgins · Mark Alford · Jordan Herrera · Thomas Holbrook · KathleenMae Rogers · Emanuel Cleaver · Rick Brattin · Randy Langkraehr · Chris Stigall · Josh Smead · Andy Maidment · Eric Burlison · Missi Hesketh · Kevin Craig · Jason Smith · Chris Reichard · Rebecca Lombard
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.