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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. HOUSE
New Jersey House districts
Explore all 12 congressional districts in New Jersey.
Snapshot: · Model house-0.1.1
12 of 12 districts have comparable two-party baselines. District projections are experimental and uncalibrated. Unmodeled districts are not toss-ups. Full House-control odds are withheld.
| District | Margin | Win probability | Polls | Data basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJ-01 | D +30.1 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NJ-02 | R +5.2 | R 69% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NJ-03 | D +20.6 | D 97% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NJ-04 | R +24.3 | R 99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NJ-05 | D +23.3 | D 99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NJ-06 | D +28.1 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NJ-07 | D +6.3 | D 74% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NJ-08 | D +38.0 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NJ-09 | D +16.9 | D 94% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NJ-10 | D +65.8 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NJ-11 | D +26.8 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NJ-12 | D +37.2 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
NJ-01: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +18.2. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NJ-02: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +17.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NJ-03: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +8.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NJ-04: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +36.1. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NJ-05: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +11.5. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NJ-06: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +16.3. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NJ-07: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +5.5. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Rebecca Bennett / Thomas H. Kean Jr.. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| StimSight Research ↗ | 2026-09-12 | 498 | lv | D +5.6 |
NJ-08: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +26.2. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NJ-09: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +5.1. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NJ-10: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +54.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NJ-11: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +15.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NJ-12: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +25.4. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
Sources: House Clerk official 2024 results, Census congressional district data, and NYT polling (CC BY 4.0; independently modified).
Explore the interactive House map ↗ · House methodology and limitations
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN NEW JERSEY
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
New Jersey bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news
Candidate records & policy profiles
Donald Norcross · Damon Galdo · Jeff Van Drew · Zack Mullock · Ramon Mora Jr · Herb Conaway · Michael McGuire · Steve Welzer · Ryan Michael Kelly · Chris Smith · Rachel Peace · Josh Gottheimer · Sean Kirrane · Adam Rueda · Frank Pallone · Hillary Herzig · Tom Kean Jr. · Rebecca Bennett · Seamus Patrick O'Toole · Rob Menendez · Craig Honts · Da'shone Hughey · Ari Eliopoulos · Nellie Pou · Rosie Pino · Terrisa Bukovinac · LaMonica McIver · Carmen Bucco · Analilia Mejia · Joe Hathaway · Alan Bond · Adam Hamawy · Gregg Mele · Andres Jinete · Winston Jordan
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.