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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. HOUSE
New Jersey House districts
Explore all 12 congressional districts in New Jersey.
Snapshot: · Model house-0.1.0
12 of 12 districts have comparable two-party baselines. District projections are experimental and uncalibrated. Unmodeled districts are not toss-ups. Full House-control odds are withheld.
| District | Margin | Win probability | Polls | Data basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJ-01 | D +29.1 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NJ-02 | R +6.2 | R 72% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NJ-03 | D +19.6 | D 97% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NJ-04 | R +25.2 | R >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NJ-05 | D +22.4 | D 98% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NJ-06 | D +27.2 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NJ-07 | D +5.4 | D 73% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NJ-08 | D +37.0 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NJ-09 | D +15.9 | D 93% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NJ-10 | D +64.8 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NJ-11 | D +25.9 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NJ-12 | D +36.2 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
NJ-01: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +18.2. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NJ-02: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +17.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NJ-03: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +8.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NJ-04: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +36.1. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NJ-05: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +11.5. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NJ-06: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +16.3. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NJ-07: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +5.5. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Rebecca Bennett / Thomas H. Kean Jr.. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| StimSight Research ↗ | 2026-09-12 | 498 | lv | D +5.6 |
NJ-08: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +26.2. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NJ-09: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +5.1. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NJ-10: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +54.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NJ-11: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +15.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NJ-12: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +25.4. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
Sources: House Clerk official 2024 results, Census congressional district data, and NYT polling (CC BY 4.0; independently modified).
Explore the interactive House map ↗ · House methodology and limitations
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN NEW JERSEY
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
New Jersey bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news