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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. HOUSE
New Mexico House districts
Explore all 3 congressional districts in New Mexico.
Snapshot: · Model house-0.1.0
3 of 3 districts have comparable two-party baselines. District projections are experimental and uncalibrated. Unmodeled districts are not toss-ups. Full House-control odds are withheld.
| District | Margin | Win probability | Polls | Data basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM-01 | D +23.6 | D 99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NM-02 | D +13.2 | D 93% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NM-03 | D +23.4 | D 99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
NM-01: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +12.7. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NM-02: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +4.2. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Gabriel Vasquez / Greg Cunningham. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA ↗ | 2026-09-02 | 554 | lv | D +3.4 |
NM-03: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +12.6. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
Sources: House Clerk official 2024 results, Census congressional district data, and NYT polling (CC BY 4.0; independently modified).
Explore the interactive House map ↗ · House methodology and limitations
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Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
New Mexico bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news