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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. HOUSE
New Mexico House districts
Explore all 3 congressional districts in New Mexico.
Snapshot: · Model house-0.1.1
3 of 3 districts have comparable two-party baselines. District projections are experimental and uncalibrated. Unmodeled districts are not toss-ups. Full House-control odds are withheld.
| District | Margin | Win probability | Polls | Data basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM-01 | D +24.0 | D >99% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NM-02 | D +13.9 | D 94% | 2 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NM-03 | D +23.2 | D >99% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
NM-01: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +12.7. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Melanie Ann Stansbury / Ndidiamaka Okpareke. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. ↗ | 2026-10-09 | 380 | lv | D +20.5 |
NM-02: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +4.2. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Gabriel Vasquez / Greg Cunningham. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. ↗ | 2026-10-09 | 383 | lv | D +4.3 |
| SurveyUSA ↗ | 2026-09-02 | 554 | lv | D +3.4 |
NM-03: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +12.6. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Teresa Leger Fernandez / Martin Ruben Zamora. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. ↗ | 2026-10-09 | 362 | lv | D +15.2 |
Sources: House Clerk official 2024 results, Census congressional district data, and NYT polling (CC BY 4.0; independently modified).
Explore the interactive House map ↗ · House methodology and limitations
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Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
New Mexico bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news
Candidate records & policy profiles
Melanie Stansbury · Didi Okpareke · Gabe Vasquez · Greg Cunningham · Teresa Leger Fernandez · Martin Zamora
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.