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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. HOUSE
North Carolina House districts
Explore all 14 congressional districts in North Carolina.
Snapshot: · Model house-0.1.1
0 of 14 districts have comparable two-party baselines. District projections are experimental and uncalibrated. Unmodeled districts are not toss-ups. Full House-control odds are withheld.
| District | Margin | Win probability | Polls | Data basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC-01 | Not modeled | Unavailable | 4 | Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline |
| NC-02 | Not modeled | Unavailable | 0 | Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline |
| NC-03 | Not modeled | Unavailable | 0 | Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline |
| NC-04 | Not modeled | Unavailable | 0 | Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline |
| NC-05 | Not modeled | Unavailable | 0 | Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline |
| NC-06 | Not modeled | Unavailable | 0 | Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline |
| NC-07 | Not modeled | Unavailable | 1 | Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline |
| NC-08 | Not modeled | Unavailable | 0 | Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline |
| NC-09 | Not modeled | Unavailable | 1 | Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline |
| NC-10 | Not modeled | Unavailable | 0 | Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline |
| NC-11 | Not modeled | Unavailable | 2 | Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline |
| NC-12 | Not modeled | Unavailable | 0 | Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline |
| NC-13 | Not modeled | Unavailable | 0 | Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline |
| NC-14 | Not modeled | Unavailable | 0 | Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline |
NC-01: district evidence
Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
Latest observed polling matchup: Don Davis / Laurie Buckhout. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient ↗ | 2026-10-08 | 623 | lv | R +1.2 |
| Neighborhood Research Corporation ↗ | 2026-10-06 | 303 | lv | R +4.8 |
| GQR ↗ | 2026-10-04 | 500 | lv | D +9.3 |
| GBAO ↗ | 2026-09-11 | 500 | lv | D +7.5 |
NC-02: district evidence
Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NC-03: district evidence
Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NC-04: district evidence
Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NC-05: district evidence
Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NC-06: district evidence
Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NC-07: district evidence
Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
Latest observed polling matchup: Kimberly Hardy / David Rouzer. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling ↗ | 2026-08-20 | 517 | rv | R +6.5 |
NC-08: district evidence
Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NC-09: district evidence
Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
Latest observed polling matchup: Richard Ojeda / Richard Hudson. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Research Partners ↗ | 2026-09-03 | 400 | lv | R +4.5 |
NC-10: district evidence
Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NC-11: district evidence
Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
Latest observed polling matchup: Jamie Ager / Jennifer Balkcom. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College ↗ | 2026-10-14 | 388 | lv | D +13.1 |
| Public Policy Polling ↗ | 2026-09-11 | 531 | rv | R +4.2 |
NC-12: district evidence
Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NC-13: district evidence
Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NC-14: district evidence
Redrawn for 2026; no comparable district baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
Sources: House Clerk official 2024 results, Census congressional district data, and NYT polling (CC BY 4.0; independently modified).
Explore the interactive House map ↗ · House methodology and limitations
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN NORTH CAROLINA
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
North Carolina bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news
Candidate records & policy profiles
Don Davis · Laurie Buckhout · Tom Bailey · Deborah Ross · Gene Douglass · Matt Laszacs · Brian McGinnis · Greg Murphy · Raymond Smith · Daniel Cavender · Valerie Foushee · Mahesh "Max" Ganorkar · Guy Meilleur · Virginia Foxx · Chuck Hubbard · Robert Luffman · Addison McDowell · Cyril Jefferson · David Rouzer · Kimberly Hardy · Maad Abu-Ghazalah · Mark Harris · Colby Watson · Robert "Bo" Whitehead · Richard Hudson · Richard Ojeda · Pat Harrigan · Ashley Bell · Steve Feldman · Jennifer Balkcom · Jamie Ager · Travis Groo · Alma Adams · Jack Codiga · Brad Knott · Paul Barringer · Steven Swinton · Tim Moore · LaKesha Womack
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.