Civics & public records
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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. HOUSE
Oklahoma House districts
Explore all 5 congressional districts in Oklahoma.
Snapshot: · Model house-0.1.0
4 of 5 districts have comparable two-party baselines. District projections are experimental and uncalibrated. Unmodeled districts are not toss-ups. Full House-control odds are withheld.
| District | Margin | Win probability | Polls | Data basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OK-01 | R +16.4 | R 94% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| OK-02 | R +44.3 | R >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| OK-03 | Not modeled | Unavailable | 0 | No two-party 2024 contest |
| OK-04 | R +28.7 | R >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| OK-05 | R +9.8 | R 85% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
OK-01: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +27.3. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
OK-02: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +55.1. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
OK-03: district evidence
No two-party 2024 contest. Census 120th Congress district layer.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
OK-04: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +39.5. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
OK-05: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +21.4. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Jena Nelson / Stephanie Bice. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO ↗ | 2026-09-20 | 500 | lv | R +5.5 |
Sources: House Clerk official 2024 results, Census congressional district data, and NYT polling (CC BY 4.0; independently modified).
Explore the interactive House map ↗ · House methodology and limitations
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN OKLAHOMA
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Oklahoma bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news