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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. HOUSE
Pennsylvania House districts
Explore all 17 congressional districts in Pennsylvania.
Snapshot: · Model house-0.1.1
16 of 17 districts have comparable two-party baselines. District projections are experimental and uncalibrated. Unmodeled districts are not toss-ups. Full House-control odds are withheld.
| District | Margin | Win probability | Polls | Data basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA-01 | R +0.5 | R 53% | 5 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-02 | D +54.7 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-03 | Not modeled | Unavailable | 0 | No two-party 2024 contest |
| PA-04 | D +29.9 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-05 | D +42.4 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-06 | D +24.2 | D 99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-07 | D +9.1 | D 89% | 3 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-08 | D +8.4 | D 86% | 2 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-09 | R +29.2 | R >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-10 | D +7.6 | D 84% | 3 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-11 | R +14.0 | R 91% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-12 | D +24.6 | D 99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-13 | R +36.6 | R >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-14 | R +21.3 | R 98% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-15 | R +31.1 | R >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-16 | R +15.5 | R 93% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-17 | D +19.6 | D 97% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
PA-01: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +12.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Bob Harvie / Brian Fitzpatrick. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University ↗ | 2026-10-22 | 400 | lv | D +2.6 |
| Global Strategy Group ↗ | 2026-10-08 | 1032 | lv | D +0.0 |
| Public Opinion Strategies ↗ | 2026-09-14 | 400 | rv | R +9.7 |
| GQR ↗ | 2026-08-23 | 400 | lv | R +1.0 |
| Global Strategy Group ↗ | 2026-08-09 | 500 | lv | R +4.4 |
PA-02: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +42.9. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
PA-03: district evidence
No two-party 2024 contest. Census 120th Congress district layer.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
PA-04: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +18.1. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
PA-05: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +30.6. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
PA-06: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +12.4. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
PA-07: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +1.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Bob Brooks / Ryan E. Mackenzie. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University ↗ | 2026-10-22 | 401 | lv | D +5.5 |
| Muhlenberg College ↗ | 2026-10-15 | 529 | lv | D +6.5 |
| Franklin & Marshall College ↗ | 2026-09-20 | 350 | rv | D +5.9 |
PA-08: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +1.6. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Paige Cognetti / Rob Bresnahan Jr.. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University ↗ | 2026-10-22 | 402 | lv | D +4.2 |
| Emerson College ↗ | 2026-10-14 | 396 | lv | D +4.0 |
PA-09: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +41.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
PA-10: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +1.3. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Janelle Stelson / Scott Perry. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University ↗ | 2026-10-22 | 404 | lv | R +0.4 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc. ↗ | 2026-10-11 | 300 | lv | D +3.2 |
| Franklin & Marshall College ↗ | 2026-09-20 | 378 | rv | D +3.3 |
PA-11: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +25.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
PA-12: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +12.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
PA-13: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +48.4. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
PA-14: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +33.1. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
PA-15: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +42.9. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
PA-16: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +27.3. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
PA-17: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +7.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
Sources: House Clerk official 2024 results, Census congressional district data, and NYT polling (CC BY 4.0; independently modified).
Explore the interactive House map ↗ · House methodology and limitations
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN PENNSYLVANIA
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Pennsylvania bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news
Candidate records & policy profiles
Brian Fitzpatrick · Bob Harvie · Brendan Boyle · Jessica Arriaga · Chris Rabb · Dennis Mahoney · Abby Tilsner · Madeleine Dean · Aurora Stuski · Mary Gay Scanlon · Nick Manganaro · Chrissy Houlahan · Marty Young · Ryan Mackenzie · Bob Brooks · Rob Bresnahan · Paige Cognetti · Dan Meuser · Rachel Wallace · Scott Perry · Janelle Stelson · Lloyd Smucker · Nancy Mannion · Summer Lee · James Hayes · Sergio Zambrana · John Joyce · Beth Farnham · Guy Reschenthaler · Alan Bradstock · Glenn "GT" Thompson · Ray Bilger · Mike Kelly · Justin Wagner · Chris Deluzio · Tony Guy
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.