Civics & public records
Follow legislation, recorded votes, representatives, and state government through Sailor Bob Civics.
Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. HOUSE
Pennsylvania House districts
Explore all 17 congressional districts in Pennsylvania.
Snapshot: · Model house-0.1.0
16 of 17 districts have comparable two-party baselines. District projections are experimental and uncalibrated. Unmodeled districts are not toss-ups. Full House-control odds are withheld.
| District | Margin | Win probability | Polls | Data basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA-01 | R +2.7 | R 62% | 3 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-02 | D +53.8 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-03 | Not modeled | Unavailable | 0 | No two-party 2024 contest |
| PA-04 | D +29.0 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-05 | D +41.5 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-06 | D +23.3 | D 99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-07 | D +9.0 | D 85% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-08 | D +9.2 | D 81% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-09 | R +30.1 | R >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-10 | D +8.2 | D 83% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-11 | R +14.9 | R 92% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-12 | D +23.7 | D 99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-13 | R +37.5 | R >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-14 | R +22.3 | R 98% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-15 | R +32.1 | R >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-16 | R +16.4 | R 94% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| PA-17 | D +18.6 | D 96% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
PA-01: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +12.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Bob Harvie / Brian Fitzpatrick. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies ↗ | 2026-09-14 | 400 | rv | R +9.7 |
| GQR ↗ | 2026-08-23 | 400 | lv | R +1.0 |
| Global Strategy Group ↗ | 2026-08-09 | 500 | lv | R +4.4 |
PA-02: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +42.9. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
PA-03: district evidence
No two-party 2024 contest. Census 120th Congress district layer.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
PA-04: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +18.1. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
PA-05: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +30.6. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
PA-06: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +12.4. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
PA-07: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +1.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Bob Brooks / Ryan E. Mackenzie. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin & Marshall College ↗ | 2026-09-20 | 350 | rv | D +5.9 |
PA-08: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +1.6. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
PA-09: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +41.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
PA-10: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +1.3. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Janelle Stelson / Scott Perry. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin & Marshall College ↗ | 2026-09-20 | 378 | rv | D +3.3 |
PA-11: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +25.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
PA-12: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +12.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
PA-13: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +48.4. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
PA-14: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +33.1. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
PA-15: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +42.9. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
PA-16: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +27.3. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
PA-17: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +7.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
Sources: House Clerk official 2024 results, Census congressional district data, and NYT polling (CC BY 4.0; independently modified).
Explore the interactive House map ↗ · House methodology and limitations
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN PENNSYLVANIA
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Pennsylvania bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news