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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. HOUSE
Virginia House districts
Explore all 11 congressional districts in Virginia.
Snapshot: · Model house-0.1.0
11 of 11 districts have comparable two-party baselines. District projections are experimental and uncalibrated. Unmodeled districts are not toss-ups. Full House-control odds are withheld.
| District | Margin | Win probability | Polls | Data basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VA-01 | R +1.8 | R 58% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| VA-02 | D +6.8 | D 74% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| VA-03 | D +51.1 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| VA-04 | D +45.9 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| VA-05 | R +4.2 | R 66% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| VA-06 | R +18.1 | R 96% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| VA-07 | D +13.5 | D 90% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| VA-08 | D +59.6 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| VA-09 | R +34.4 | R >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| VA-10 | D +15.4 | D 93% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| VA-11 | D +44.9 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
VA-01: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +12.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Shannon Taylor / Robert Wittman. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting Team ↗ | 2026-09-17 | 519 | lv | R +1.1 |
VA-02: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +3.9. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Elaine G. Luria / Jen Kiggans. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research ↗ | 2026-07-13 | 700 | lv | D +0.0 |
VA-03: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +40.2. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
VA-04: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +35.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
VA-05: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +15.1. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Tom Perriello / John McGuire. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expedition Strategies ↗ | 2026-08-01 | 602 | lv | R +3.3 |
VA-06: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +28.9. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
VA-07: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +2.6. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
VA-08: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +48.7. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
VA-09: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +45.2. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
VA-10: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +4.6. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
VA-11: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +34.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
Sources: House Clerk official 2024 results, Census congressional district data, and NYT polling (CC BY 4.0; independently modified).
Explore the interactive House map ↗ · House methodology and limitations
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN VIRGINIA
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Virginia bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news