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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. HOUSE
Virginia House districts
Explore all 11 congressional districts in Virginia.
Snapshot: · Model house-0.1.1
11 of 11 districts have comparable two-party baselines. District projections are experimental and uncalibrated. Unmodeled districts are not toss-ups. Full House-control odds are withheld.
| District | Margin | Win probability | Polls | Data basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VA-01 | R +0.1 | R 51% | 4 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| VA-02 | D +7.1 | D 79% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| VA-03 | D +52.0 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| VA-04 | D +46.8 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| VA-05 | R +3.4 | R 64% | 2 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| VA-06 | R +19.5 | R 98% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| VA-07 | D +14.5 | D 91% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| VA-08 | D +60.5 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| VA-09 | R +33.4 | R >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| VA-10 | D +16.4 | D 94% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| VA-11 | D +45.8 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
VA-01: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +12.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Shannon Taylor / Robert Wittman. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting Team ↗ | 2026-10-25 | 478 | lv | D +1.1 |
| Public Policy Polling ↗ | 2026-10-22 | 570 | lv | D +1.1 |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government ↗ | 2026-09-28 | 609 | lv | D +4.2 |
| DCCC Targeting Team ↗ | 2026-09-17 | 519 | lv | R +1.1 |
VA-02: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +3.9. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Elaine G. Luria / Jen Kiggans. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Newport University ↗ | 2026-10-10 | 702 | lv | D +3.4 |
VA-03: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +40.2. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
VA-04: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +35.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
VA-05: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +15.1. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Tom Perriello / John McGuire. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government ↗ | 2026-09-28 | 600 | lv | R +6.2 |
| Expedition Strategies ↗ | 2026-09-24 | 400 | lv | D +2.1 |
VA-06: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +28.9. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Beth Macy / Ben Cline. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient ↗ | 2026-09-30 | 791 | lv | R +34.1 |
VA-07: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +2.6. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
VA-08: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +48.7. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
VA-09: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +45.2. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
VA-10: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +4.6. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
VA-11: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +34.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
Sources: House Clerk official 2024 results, Census congressional district data, and NYT polling (CC BY 4.0; independently modified).
Explore the interactive House map ↗ · House methodology and limitations
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN VIRGINIA
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Virginia bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news
Candidate records & policy profiles
Elaine Luria · Jen Kiggans · J. Matt Baker · Geral D. “Bishop” Staten · Robert J. "Rob" Wittman · Shannon L. Taylor · Robert C. "Bobby" Scott · Edwin Rivera, Jr. · Makiba A. Gaines · Stephen C. Woll · Jennifer L. McClellan · Robert P. "Family Man" Murray, Jr. · Joan E. "Andrews" Bell · John J. McGuire III · Tom S. P. Perriello · Cooke C. Harvey · Ben L. Cline · Beth A. Macy · Eugene S. Vindman · Doug A. Ollivant · Taner E. Demirci Lopez · Alaha Ahrar · Joshua E. Ertle · Randall A. Terry · Donald S. Beyer, Jr. · Tony A. Sabio · Shelly M. Arnoldi · Tim S. Sharman · H. Morgan Griffith · Joy A. Powers · Suhas Subramanyam · Dave T. Beckwith · Ahsen Mujeeb Malik · James R. Walkinshaw · Arthur G. Purves · Dianne L. Blais
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.