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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
Alaska Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.1.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
56%D win probability
D +0.8Projected margin
7Qualifying polls
Mary Peltola (D) / Dan Sullivan (R).
80% margin interval: -5.5 to 7.0 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2020.
Alaska Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient ↗ | 2026-09-17 | 799 | lv | R +3.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research ↗ | 2026-09-12 | 1352 | lv | D +3.8 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research ↗ | 2026-09-11 | 800 | lv | D +6.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research ↗ | 2026-08-23 | 1495 | lv | D +1.2 |
| Alaska Survey Research ↗ | 2026-08-05 | 1371 | lv | D +1.6 |
| Data for Progress ↗ | 2026-08-04 | 567 | lv | D +6.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University ↗ | 2026-06-29 | 593 | lv | R +2.4 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every four hours; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
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