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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
Arkansas Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.1.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
94%R win probability
R +8.3Projected margin
3Qualifying polls
Hallie Shoffner (D) / Tom Cotton (R).
80% margin interval: -15.1 to -1.4 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2022.
Arkansas Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.L. Partners ↗ | 2026-08-18 | 803 | lv | R +16.0 |
| Hendrix College ↗ | 2026-08-12 | 1217 | lv | D +3.4 |
| 2040 Strategy Group ↗ | 2026-07-25 | 586 | lv | R +3.0 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every four hours; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN ARKANSAS
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Arkansas bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news