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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · SPECIAL ELECTION
Florida Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.2.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
93%R win probability
R +6.4Projected margin
26Qualifying polls
Angie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R).
80% margin interval: -12.2 to -0.7 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2024.
Florida Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. ↗ | 2026-11-02 | 450 | lv | R +7.0 |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research ↗ | 2026-10-30 | 859 | lv | R +4.0 |
| Big Data Poll ↗ | 2026-10-30 | 1067 | lv | R +6.9 |
| Targoz Market Research ↗ | 2026-10-29 | 1013 | lv | R +9.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage ↗ | 2026-10-29 | 1200 | lv | R +5.8 |
| The Political Matrix/The Listener Group ↗ | 2026-10-28 | 500 | lv | R +6.0 |
| St. Pete Polls ↗ | 2026-10-27 | 916 | lv | R +4.3 |
| ActiVote ↗ | 2026-10-27 | 400 | lv | R +6.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University ↗ | 2026-10-25 | 813 | lv | R +6.0 |
| Echelon Insights ↗ | 2026-10-23 | 515 | lv | R +8.0 |
| Workbench Strategy ↗ | 2026-10-22 | 800 | lv | R +2.0 |
| co/efficient ↗ | 2026-10-20 | 1014 | lv | R +8.0 |
| University of North Florida ↗ | 2026-10-19 | 1471 | lv | R +4.0 |
| ActiVote ↗ | 2026-10-15 | 400 | lv | R +6.2 |
| MDW Communications ↗ | 2026-10-10 | 2351 | lv | R +5.2 |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research ↗ | 2026-10-09 | 716 | lv | R +11.0 |
| St. Pete Polls ↗ | 2026-10-07 | 836 | lv | R +1.9 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-10-05 | 3812 | lv | R +5.0 |
| Targoz Market Research ↗ | 2026-10-04 | 847 | lv | R +10.0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. ↗ | 2026-10-01 | 625 | lv | R +10.0 |
| Change Research ↗ | 2026-09-27 | 1063 | lv | R +1.0 |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research ↗ | 2026-09-21 | 830 | lv | R +11.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage ↗ | 2026-09-21 | 600 | lv | R +7.5 |
| St. Pete Polls ↗ | 2026-09-17 | 913 | lv | R +0.4 |
| Quantus Insights ↗ | 2026-09-10 | 733 | lv | R +7.4 |
| Change Research ↗ | 2026-09-09 | 1107 | lv | D +0.0 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every hour; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
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Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
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Candidate records & policy profiles
Ashley Moody · Angie Nixon · Neil Gillespie
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.