Civics & public records
Follow legislation, recorded votes, representatives, and state government through Sailor Bob Civics.
Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · SPECIAL ELECTION
Florida Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.1.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
89%R win probability
R +5.9Projected margin
6Qualifying polls
Angie Nixon (D) / Ashley Moody (R).
80% margin interval: -11.9 to 0.1 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2024.
Florida Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research ↗ | 2026-09-21 | 830 | lv | R +11.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage ↗ | 2026-09-21 | 600 | lv | R +7.5 |
| St. Pete Polls ↗ | 2026-09-17 | 913 | lv | R +0.4 |
| Quantus Insights ↗ | 2026-09-10 | 733 | lv | R +7.4 |
| Change Research ↗ | 2026-09-09 | 1107 | lv | D +0.0 |
| University of North Florida ↗ | 2026-07-17 | 848 | lv | R +8.4 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every four hours; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN FLORIDA
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Florida bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news