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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
Idaho Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.2.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
>99%R win probability
R +16.7Projected margin
5Qualifying polls
Todd Achilles (I) / James Risch (R).
80% margin interval: -25.7 to -7.8 points. Positive values favor the I candidate. Prior result year: 2022.
Idaho Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VoteNexus ↗ | 2026-10-22 | 700 | lv | R +6.0 |
| Peak Insights ↗ | 2026-10-15 | 500 | lv | R +27.0 |
| Peak Insights ↗ | 2026-09-30 | 500 | lv | R +25.0 |
| Peak Insights ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 500 | lv | R +34.0 |
| The Bullfinch Group ↗ | 2026-08-07 | 608 | lv | R +4.0 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every hour; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
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Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Idaho bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news
Candidate records & policy profiles
Jim Risch · Matt Loesby · Todd Achilles · Natalie Fleming
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.