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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
Illinois Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.1.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
78%D win probability
D +12.9Projected margin
0Qualifying polls
Democratic candidate (D) / Republican candidate (R).
80% margin interval: -8.6 to 34.4 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2020.
Illinois Senate polls
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every four hours; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
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Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Illinois bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news