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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
Illinois Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.2.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
>99%D win probability
D +12.9Projected margin
4Qualifying polls
Juliana Stratton (D) / Don Tracy (R).
80% margin interval: 6.6 to 19.2 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2020.
Illinois Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. ↗ | 2026-11-02 | 450 | lv | D +12.0 |
| ActiVote ↗ | 2026-10-30 | 400 | lv | D +11.2 |
| ActiVote ↗ | 2026-10-20 | 400 | lv | D +17.0 |
| Public Policy Polling ↗ | 2026-10-01 | 569 | rv | D +13.0 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every hour; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
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Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Illinois bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news
Candidate records & policy profiles
Juliana Stratton · Don Tracy · Whitfield Harrington · Naomi Craine
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.