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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
Iowa Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.2.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
53%R win probability
R +0.3Projected margin
29Qualifying polls
Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R).
80% margin interval: -6.0 to 5.4 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2022.
Iowa Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel ↗ | 2026-11-01 | 1219 | lv | D +4.1 |
| The New York Times/Siena University ↗ | 2026-11-01 | 705 | lv | D +0.7 |
| GrayHouse ↗ | 2026-10-31 | 601 | lv | R +2.0 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-10-29 | 2016 | lv | D +1.0 |
| co/efficient ↗ | 2026-10-28 | 1020 | lv | R +2.0 |
| Echelon Insights ↗ | 2026-10-23 | 403 | lv | D +2.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage ↗ | 2026-10-22 | 1200 | lv | R +1.5 |
| co/efficient ↗ | 2026-10-19 | 863 | lv | R +3.0 |
| Trafalgar Group ↗ | 2026-10-15 | 1094 | lv | R +1.7 |
| New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group ↗ | 2026-10-13 | 602 | lv | D +2.0 |
| National Public Affairs ↗ | 2026-10-12 | 678 | lv | R +1.0 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-10-12 | 2245 | lv | D +1.0 |
| Marist University ↗ | 2026-10-11 | 1100 | lv | D +3.0 |
| Emerson College ↗ | 2026-10-06 | 650 | lv | R +1.6 |
| CNN/SSRS ↗ | 2026-10-05 | 801 | lv | R +2.0 |
| Suffolk University ↗ | 2026-10-04 | 500 | lv | D +4.4 |
| The New York Times/Siena University ↗ | 2026-10-01 | 606 | lv | R +0.9 |
| Quantus Insights ↗ | 2026-09-29 | 738 | lv | R +2.4 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗ | 2026-09-28 | 1008 | lv | D +2.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage ↗ | 2026-09-23 | 1200 | lv | D +1.7 |
| Marist University ↗ | 2026-09-20 | 1050 | rv | D +8.0 |
| Trafalgar Group ↗ | 2026-09-18 | 1089 | lv | R +1.9 |
| co/efficient ↗ | 2026-09-16 | 831 | lv | R +4.0 |
| Cygnal Political ↗ | 2026-09-11 | 500 | lv | D +0.0 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-09-08 | 2127 | lv | D +2.0 |
| Emerson College ↗ | 2026-09-01 | 750 | lv | R +4.4 |
| Global Strategy Group ↗ | 2026-08-31 | 800 | lv | D +4.0 |
| Abacus Data ↗ | 2026-08-28 | 323 | lv | D +7.0 |
| Suffolk University ↗ | 2026-08-23 | 500 | lv | R +4.6 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every hour; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
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Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
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Candidate records & policy profiles
Josh Turek · Ashley Hinson · Thomas Laehn
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.