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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
Iowa Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.1.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
52%R win probability
R +0.2Projected margin
11Qualifying polls
Josh Turek (D) / Ashley Hinson (R).
80% margin interval: -6.1 to 5.7 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2022.
Iowa Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist University ↗ | 2026-09-20 | 1050 | rv | D +8.0 |
| Trafalgar Group ↗ | 2026-09-18 | 1089 | lv | R +1.9 |
| co/efficient ↗ | 2026-09-16 | 831 | lv | R +4.0 |
| Cygnal Political ↗ | 2026-09-11 | 500 | lv | D +0.0 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-09-08 | 2127 | lv | D +2.0 |
| Emerson College ↗ | 2026-09-01 | 750 | lv | R +4.4 |
| Global Strategy Group ↗ | 2026-08-31 | 800 | lv | D +4.0 |
| Wedgewood Polls ↗ | 2026-08-29 | 600 | lv | R +2.0 |
| Abacus Data ↗ | 2026-08-28 | 323 | lv | D +7.0 |
| Suffolk University ↗ | 2026-08-23 | 500 | lv | R +4.6 |
| Emerson College ↗ | 2026-08-04 | 712 | lv | R +2.5 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every four hours; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
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