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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
Kansas Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.1.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
63%R win probability
R +1.5Projected margin
5Qualifying polls
Adam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R).
80% margin interval: -7.7 to 4.6 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2022.
Kansas Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wedgewood Polls ↗ | 2026-09-24 | 500 | lv | D +2.0 |
| Emerson College ↗ | 2026-09-16 | 750 | lv | D +1.5 |
| co/efficient ↗ | 2026-09-10 | 915 | lv | R +5.0 |
| Global Strategy Group ↗ | 2026-08-16 | 800 | lv | D +1.0 |
| GBAO ↗ | 2026-07-13 | 600 | lv | R +4.0 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every four hours; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
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Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Kansas bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news