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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
Kansas Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.2.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
70%D win probability
D +2.4Projected margin
17Qualifying polls
Adam Hamilton (D) / Roger Marshall (R).
80% margin interval: -3.4 to 8.2 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2022.
Kansas Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel ↗ | 2026-11-01 | 2038 | lv | D +7.0 |
| Survey 160 ↗ | 2026-11-01 | 1267 | lv | D +6.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University ↗ | 2026-11-01 | 736 | lv | D +5.1 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-10-29 | 2086 | lv | D +1.0 |
| Emerson College ↗ | 2026-10-28 | 800 | lv | D +2.4 |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government ↗ | 2026-10-26 | 801 | lv | D +9.0 |
| CNN/SSRS ↗ | 2026-10-26 | 838 | lv | D +4.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage ↗ | 2026-10-14 | 1200 | lv | R +1.1 |
| InsiderAdvantage ↗ | 2026-10-10 | 1200 | lv | D +0.8 |
| GBAO ↗ | 2026-10-04 | 600 | lv | D +5.0 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-10-04 | 2253 | lv | D +3.0 |
| Trafalgar Group ↗ | 2026-10-01 | 1095 | lv | D +0.9 |
| The New York Times/Siena University ↗ | 2026-09-30 | 605 | lv | R +0.3 |
| Global Strategy Group ↗ | 2026-09-16 | 800 | lv | D +2.0 |
| Emerson College ↗ | 2026-09-16 | 750 | lv | D +1.5 |
| co/efficient ↗ | 2026-09-10 | 915 | lv | R +5.0 |
| Global Strategy Group ↗ | 2026-08-16 | 800 | lv | D +1.0 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every hour; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN KANSAS
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Kansas bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news
Candidate records & policy profiles
Adam Hamilton · Roger Marshall · David Graham
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.