2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION

Maine Senate forecast

2026 polling and experimental race projection.

Snapshot: 2026-09-26 UTC · Model baseline-1.1.0

Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.

Race at a glance

72%D win probability

D +2.6Projected margin

12Qualifying polls

Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R).

80% margin interval: -3.2 to 8.5 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2020.

Maine Senate polls

Qualifying polls in this snapshot
Pollster / source	End date	Sample	Population	Two-party margin
The New York Times/Siena University ↗	2026-09-22	619	lv	R +2.7
University of New Hampshire ↗	2026-09-21	1301	lv	D +4.0
Quantus Insights ↗	2026-09-15	621	lv	R +0.2
University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov ↗	2026-09-14	650	lv	D +5.0
YouGov ↗	2026-09-08	1335	lv	D +4.0
CNN/SSRS ↗	2026-09-06	880	lv	D +3.0
Abacus Data ↗	2026-08-28	327	lv	D +8.0
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗	2026-08-10	1000	rv	D +2.0
Hart Research Associates ↗	2026-08-01	802	lv	D +4.0
University of New Hampshire ↗	2026-07-20	1178	lv	D +3.0
Public Policy Polling ↗	2026-07-07	785	rv	D +5.0
Wedgewood Polls ↗	2026-07-06	405	lv	D +5.0

Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every four hours; failed updates retain this snapshot.

Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast

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Maine Senate forecast

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Maine Senate polls

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