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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
Maine Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.2.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
78%D win probability
D +3.4Projected margin
30Qualifying polls
Troy Jackson (D) / Susan Collins (R).
80% margin interval: -2.3 to 9.2 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2020.
Maine Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College ↗ | 2026-11-01 | 600 | lv | R +1.2 |
| AtlasIntel ↗ | 2026-11-01 | 967 | lv | D +9.1 |
| Survey 160 ↗ | 2026-11-01 | 1322 | lv | D +3.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University ↗ | 2026-11-01 | 714 | lv | D +5.9 |
| University of New Hampshire ↗ | 2026-10-31 | 1633 | lv | D +9.0 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-10-29 | 1501 | lv | D +5.0 |
| Data for Progress ↗ | 2026-10-27 | 652 | lv | D +5.0 |
| CNN/SSRS ↗ | 2026-10-26 | 783 | lv | D +4.0 |
| Marist University ↗ | 2026-10-25 | 1449 | lv | D +2.0 |
| Echelon Insights ↗ | 2026-10-23 | 413 | lv | D +7.0 |
| Trafalgar Group ↗ | 2026-10-23 | 1077 | lv | R +0.5 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗ | 2026-10-20 | 1514 | lv | D +0.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage ↗ | 2026-10-14 | 1200 | lv | D +2.5 |
| Suffolk University ↗ | 2026-10-11 | 500 | lv | D +2.0 |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government ↗ | 2026-10-05 | 800 | lv | D +4.0 |
| Marist University ↗ | 2026-10-04 | 1505 | rv | D +4.0 |
| Trafalgar Group ↗ | 2026-10-01 | 1091 | lv | D +0.3 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-10-01 | 1136 | lv | D +0.0 |
| co/efficient ↗ | 2026-09-30 | 1240 | lv | R +2.0 |
| Maine People's Resource Center ↗ | 2026-09-29 | 684 | lv | D +2.8 |
| InsiderAdvantage ↗ | 2026-09-23 | 1200 | lv | D +0.8 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research ↗ | 2026-09-22 | 982 | lv | D +3.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University ↗ | 2026-09-22 | 619 | lv | R +2.7 |
| University of New Hampshire ↗ | 2026-09-21 | 1301 | lv | D +4.0 |
| Quantus Insights ↗ | 2026-09-15 | 621 | lv | R +0.2 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov ↗ | 2026-09-14 | 650 | lv | D +5.0 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-09-08 | 1335 | lv | D +4.0 |
| CNN/SSRS ↗ | 2026-09-06 | 880 | lv | D +3.0 |
| Abacus Data ↗ | 2026-08-28 | 327 | lv | D +8.0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗ | 2026-08-10 | 1000 | rv | D +2.0 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every hour; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
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Beyond this election
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Candidate records & policy profiles
Troy Jackson · Susan Collins · Ashley Webb
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.