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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
Massachusetts Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.2.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
>99%D win probability
D +25.4Projected margin
8Qualifying polls
Ed Markey (D) / John Deaton (R).
80% margin interval: 19.4 to 31.5 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2024.
Massachusetts Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire ↗ | 2026-10-31 | 877 | lv | D +21.0 |
| UMass Lowell ↗ | 2026-10-18 | 850 | lv | D +29.0 |
| Suffolk University ↗ | 2026-10-18 | 500 | lv | D +28.2 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-10-12 | 800 | rv | D +27.0 |
| MassINC Polling Group ↗ | 2026-09-22 | 800 | lv | D +26.0 |
| University of New Hampshire ↗ | 2026-09-21 | 556 | lv | D +23.0 |
| University of New Hampshire ↗ | 2026-08-24 | 906 | lv | D +19.0 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-08-12 | 800 | rv | D +21.0 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every hour; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
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Beyond this election
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Massachusetts bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news
Candidate records & policy profiles
Ed Markey · John Deaton · Joe Tache · Shiva Ayyadurai
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.