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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
Michigan Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.1.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
70%D win probability
D +2.4Projected margin
25Qualifying polls
Abdul El-Sayed (D) / Mike Rogers (R).
80% margin interval: -3.3 to 8.1 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2024.
Michigan Senate polls
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every four hours; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN MICHIGAN
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Michigan bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news