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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
Minnesota Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.1.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
69%D win probability
D +2.4Projected margin
5Qualifying polls
Peggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R).
80% margin interval: -3.9 to 8.6 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2024.
Minnesota Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient ↗ | 2026-09-15 | 833 | lv | D +1.0 |
| SurveyUSA ↗ | 2026-09-14 | 654 | lv | D +0.0 |
| Quantus Insights ↗ | 2026-09-10 | 720 | lv | D +3.5 |
| TIPP Insights ↗ | 2026-09-02 | 1192 | lv | D +2.1 |
| SurveyUSA ↗ | 2026-08-17 | 661 | lv | D +5.0 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every four hours; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
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