Civics & public records
Follow legislation, recorded votes, representatives, and state government through Sailor Bob Civics.
Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
Minnesota Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.2.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
89%D win probability
D +5.5Projected margin
19Qualifying polls
Peggy Flanagan (D) / Michele Tafoya (R).
80% margin interval: -0.3 to 11.3 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2024.
Minnesota Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel ↗ | 2026-11-01 | 2133 | lv | D +2.4 |
| Survey 160 ↗ | 2026-11-01 | 1365 | lv | D +9.0 |
| Research Co. ↗ | 2026-11-01 | 450 | lv | D +5.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage ↗ | 2026-10-30 | 1200 | lv | D +2.9 |
| SurveyUSA ↗ | 2026-10-28 | 714 | lv | D +7.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University ↗ | 2026-10-26 | 752 | lv | D +13.9 |
| Victory Insights ↗ | 2026-10-22 | 1194 | lv | D +3.4 |
| Trafalgar Group ↗ | 2026-10-15 | 1079 | lv | D +3.5 |
| SurveyUSA ↗ | 2026-10-12 | 718 | lv | D +3.0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. ↗ | 2026-10-07 | 800 | lv | D +4.0 |
| Morning Consult ↗ | 2026-10-07 | 1000 | rv | D +4.0 |
| GQR ↗ | 2026-10-04 | 800 | lv | D +9.0 |
| Big Data Poll ↗ | 2026-09-30 | 622 | lv | D +2.2 |
| InsiderAdvantage ↗ | 2026-09-29 | 1200 | lv | D +1.0 |
| co/efficient ↗ | 2026-09-15 | 833 | lv | D +1.0 |
| SurveyUSA ↗ | 2026-09-14 | 654 | lv | D +0.0 |
| Quantus Insights ↗ | 2026-09-10 | 720 | lv | D +3.5 |
| TIPP Insights ↗ | 2026-09-02 | 1192 | lv | D +2.1 |
| SurveyUSA ↗ | 2026-08-17 | 661 | lv | D +5.0 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every hour; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN MINNESOTA
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Minnesota bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news
Candidate records & policy profiles
Peggy Flanagan · Michele Tafoya · Rebecca Whiting · Marisa Simonetti · Kevin Dwire
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.