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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
Montana Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.1.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
97%R win probability
R +13.6Projected margin
7Qualifying polls
Seth Bodnar (I) / Kurt Alme (R).
80% margin interval: -22.6 to -4.7 points. Positive values favor the I candidate. Prior result year: 2024.
Montana Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aspect Strategic ↗ | 2026-09-15 | 715 | lv | R +12.0 |
| Quantus Insights ↗ | 2026-09-15 | 625 | lv | R +19.2 |
| Rutgers-Eagleton ↗ | 2026-09-07 | 845 | rv | R +8.0 |
| Peak Insights ↗ | 2026-08-25 | 600 | lv | R +22.0 |
| Hart Research Associates ↗ | 2026-08-04 | 800 | lv | R +15.0 |
| GQR ↗ | 2026-07-26 | 500 | lv | I +6.0 |
| The Bullfinch Group ↗ | 2026-07-16 | 793 | lv | R +12.0 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every four hours; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
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