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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
Montana Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.2.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
92%R win probability
R +10.1Projected margin
10Qualifying polls
Seth Bodnar (I) / Kurt Alme (R).
80% margin interval: -19.0 to -1.1 points. Positive values favor the I candidate. Prior result year: 2024.
Montana Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concord Public Opinion Partners ↗ | 2026-10-23 | 410 | lv | I +1.0 |
| Montana State University Billings ↗ | 2026-10-21 | 720 | a | R +4.0 |
| Quantus Insights ↗ | 2026-10-18 | 667 | lv | R +16.2 |
| Peak Insights ↗ | 2026-10-12 | 500 | lv | R +15.0 |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners ↗ | 2026-10-08 | 405 | lv | I +2.0 |
| American Pulse Research & Polling ↗ | 2026-09-24 | 604 | lv | R +19.0 |
| Aspect Strategic ↗ | 2026-09-15 | 715 | lv | R +12.0 |
| Quantus Insights ↗ | 2026-09-15 | 625 | lv | R +19.2 |
| Rutgers-Eagleton ↗ | 2026-09-07 | 845 | rv | R +8.0 |
| Peak Insights ↗ | 2026-08-25 | 600 | lv | R +22.0 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every hour; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN MONTANA
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Montana bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news
Candidate records & policy profiles
Kurt Alme · Alani Bankhead · Kyle Austin · Seth Bodnar · Jami Woodman (write-in; name not printed on ballot)
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.