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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
New Hampshire Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.1.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
85%D win probability
D +5.0Projected margin
6Qualifying polls
Chris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R).
80% margin interval: -1.1 to 11.0 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2022.
New Hampshire Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University ↗ | 2026-09-22 | 613 | lv | D +5.0 |
| University of New Hampshire ↗ | 2026-09-21 | 1392 | lv | D +8.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage ↗ | 2026-09-17 | 1200 | lv | D +7.9 |
| co/efficient ↗ | 2026-09-11 | 958 | lv | D +0.0 |
| University of New Hampshire ↗ | 2026-08-24 | 1846 | lv | R +2.0 |
| St. Anselm ↗ | 2026-08-18 | 1411 | lv | D +7.0 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every four hours; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
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