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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
New Hampshire Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.2.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
94%D win probability
D +7.2Projected margin
16Qualifying polls
Chris Pappas (D) / John Sununu (R).
80% margin interval: 1.3 to 13.0 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2022.
New Hampshire Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel ↗ | 2026-11-01 | 1057 | lv | D +8.1 |
| University of New Hampshire ↗ | 2026-10-31 | 2035 | lv | D +12.0 |
| National Public Affairs ↗ | 2026-10-29 | 800 | lv | D +5.0 |
| St. Anselm ↗ | 2026-10-20 | 1672 | lv | D +7.0 |
| UMass Lowell ↗ | 2026-10-19 | 600 | lv | D +7.0 |
| National Public Affairs ↗ | 2026-10-12 | 600 | lv | D +7.0 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-10-05 | 1519 | lv | D +8.0 |
| St. Anselm ↗ | 2026-09-29 | 1042 | lv | D +7.0 |
| Trafalgar Group ↗ | 2026-09-27 | 1082 | lv | D +6.9 |
| The New York Times/Siena University ↗ | 2026-09-22 | 613 | lv | D +5.0 |
| University of New Hampshire ↗ | 2026-09-21 | 1392 | lv | D +8.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage ↗ | 2026-09-17 | 1200 | lv | D +7.9 |
| co/efficient ↗ | 2026-09-11 | 958 | lv | D +0.0 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates ↗ | 2026-08-30 | 600 | lv | R +1.0 |
| University of New Hampshire ↗ | 2026-08-24 | 1846 | lv | R +2.0 |
| St. Anselm ↗ | 2026-08-18 | 1411 | lv | D +7.0 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every hour; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
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Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
New Hampshire bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news
Candidate records & policy profiles
Chris Pappas · John Sununu · Aaron Day · Ed Laplante
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.