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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
New Mexico Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.2.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
>99%D win probability
D +16.8Projected margin
4Qualifying polls
Ben Ray Luján (D) / Larry Marker (R).
80% margin interval: 10.5 to 23.1 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2024.
New Mexico Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. ↗ | 2026-11-02 | 450 | lv | D +19.0 |
| Research & Polling Inc. ↗ | 2026-10-09 | 1125 | lv | D +16.0 |
| SurveyUSA ↗ | 2026-09-30 | 567 | lv | D +18.0 |
| Research & Polling Inc. ↗ | 2026-08-28 | 516 | lv | D +15.0 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every hour; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
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