Civics & public records
Follow legislation, recorded votes, representatives, and state government through Sailor Bob Civics.
Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
New Mexico Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.1.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
>99%D win probability
D +14.1Projected margin
1Qualifying polls
Ben Ray Luján (D) / Larry Marker (R).
80% margin interval: 6.6 to 21.7 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2024.
New Mexico Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. ↗ | 2026-08-28 | 516 | lv | D +15.0 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every four hours; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN NEW MEXICO
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
New Mexico bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news