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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
North Carolina Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.1.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
95%D win probability
D +7.7Projected margin
16Qualifying polls
Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R).
80% margin interval: 1.8 to 13.6 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2022.
North Carolina Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights ↗ | 2026-09-22 | 686 | lv | D +5.1 |
| Opinion Diagnostics ↗ | 2026-09-20 | 857 | lv | D +8.0 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-09-18 | 3742 | lv | D +12.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage ↗ | 2026-09-17 | 1200 | lv | D +5.9 |
| High Point University ↗ | 2026-09-16 | 706 | lv | D +8.0 |
| Harper Polling ↗ | 2026-09-15 | 608 | lv | D +15.1 |
| Trafalgar Group ↗ | 2026-09-10 | 1084 | lv | D +5.9 |
| East Carolina University Center for Survey Research ↗ | 2026-09-03 | 675 | lv | D +8.1 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-08-31 | 565 | lv | D +11.0 |
| High Point University ↗ | 2026-08-12 | 660 | lv | D +5.0 |
| Harper Polling ↗ | 2026-08-10 | 600 | lv | D +12.5 |
| Change Research ↗ | 2026-08-06 | 915 | lv | D +7.1 |
| Change Research ↗ | 2026-08-01 | 967 | rv | D +9.0 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-07-31 | 466 | lv | D +11.0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗ | 2026-07-27 | 1005 | rv | D +9.0 |
| Public Policy Polling ↗ | 2026-07-11 | 759 | rv | D +4.0 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every four hours; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
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Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
North Carolina bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news