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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
North Carolina Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.2.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
99%D win probability
D +10.0Projected margin
27Qualifying polls
Roy Cooper (D) / Michael Whatley (R).
80% margin interval: 4.2 to 15.8 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2022.
North Carolina Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel ↗ | 2026-11-01 | 1459 | lv | D +14.9 |
| East Carolina University Center for Survey Research ↗ | 2026-10-29 | 1041 | lv | D +9.1 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-10-29 | 2123 | lv | D +11.0 |
| Quantus Insights ↗ | 2026-10-25 | 722 | lv | D +9.0 |
| High Point University ↗ | 2026-10-20 | 620 | lv | D +14.0 |
| Harper Polling ↗ | 2026-10-20 | 600 | lv | D +10.3 |
| ActiVote ↗ | 2026-10-20 | 400 | lv | D +13.8 |
| SurveyUSA ↗ | 2026-10-11 | 643 | lv | D +14.0 |
| Trafalgar Group ↗ | 2026-10-10 | 1091 | lv | D +7.9 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-10-08 | 560 | lv | D +11.0 |
| Change Research ↗ | 2026-10-07 | 829 | lv | D +10.0 |
| East Carolina University Center for Survey Research ↗ | 2026-10-03 | 810 | lv | D +7.0 |
| Big Data Poll ↗ | 2026-09-29 | 642 | lv | D +12.3 |
| Quantus Insights ↗ | 2026-09-22 | 686 | lv | D +5.1 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research ↗ | 2026-09-20 | 1115 | lv | D +11.0 |
| Opinion Diagnostics ↗ | 2026-09-20 | 857 | lv | D +8.2 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-09-18 | 3742 | lv | D +12.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage ↗ | 2026-09-17 | 1200 | lv | D +5.9 |
| High Point University ↗ | 2026-09-16 | 706 | lv | D +8.0 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-09-15 | 885 | lv | D +11.0 |
| Harper Polling ↗ | 2026-09-15 | 608 | lv | D +15.1 |
| Trafalgar Group ↗ | 2026-09-10 | 1084 | lv | D +5.9 |
| East Carolina University Center for Survey Research ↗ | 2026-09-03 | 675 | lv | D +8.1 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-08-31 | 565 | lv | D +11.0 |
| High Point University ↗ | 2026-08-12 | 660 | lv | D +5.0 |
| Harper Polling ↗ | 2026-08-10 | 600 | lv | D +12.5 |
| Change Research ↗ | 2026-08-06 | 915 | lv | D +7.1 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every hour; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN NORTH CAROLINA
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
North Carolina bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news
Candidate records & policy profiles
Michael Whatley · Roy Cooper · Michael Dublin · Shannon Bray
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.