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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · SPECIAL ELECTION
Ohio Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.2.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
70%D win probability
D +2.3Projected margin
34Qualifying polls
Sherrod Brown (D) / Jon Husted (R).
80% margin interval: -3.4 to 8.1 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2024.
Ohio Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College ↗ | 2026-11-01 | 930 | lv | R +2.5 |
| AtlasIntel ↗ | 2026-11-01 | 1801 | lv | D +7.5 |
| Survey 160 ↗ | 2026-11-01 | 1122 | lv | D +4.0 |
| Trafalgar Group ↗ | 2026-11-01 | 1092 | lv | D +1.5 |
| Research Co. ↗ | 2026-11-01 | 450 | lv | D +1.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University ↗ | 2026-11-01 | 717 | lv | D +5.6 |
| ActiVote ↗ | 2026-10-31 | 400 | lv | D +0.4 |
| InsiderAdvantage ↗ | 2026-10-30 | 1200 | lv | D +1.8 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-10-29 | 2084 | lv | D +2.0 |
| Suffolk University ↗ | 2026-10-26 | 500 | lv | D +2.8 |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners ↗ | 2026-10-24 | 469 | lv | D +4.0 |
| Echelon Insights ↗ | 2026-10-23 | 508 | lv | D +0.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage ↗ | 2026-10-22 | 1200 | lv | D +2.3 |
| Verasight ↗ | 2026-10-20 | 531 | lv | D +3.9 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗ | 2026-10-19 | 1592 | lv | D +5.0 |
| Marist University ↗ | 2026-10-18 | 1176 | lv | D +4.0 |
| ActiVote ↗ | 2026-10-18 | 400 | lv | R +0.4 |
| New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group ↗ | 2026-10-13 | 959 | lv | D +6.0 |
| Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov ↗ | 2026-10-09 | 1000 | lv | D +6.0 |
| co/efficient ↗ | 2026-10-06 | 925 | lv | R +1.0 |
| CNN/SSRS ↗ | 2026-10-05 | 760 | lv | D +6.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University ↗ | 2026-10-01 | 616 | lv | D +2.7 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-09-30 | 3777 | lv | D +4.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage ↗ | 2026-09-29 | 1200 | lv | D +1.3 |
| Big Data Poll ↗ | 2026-09-27 | 680 | lv | D +3.7 |
| Suffolk University ↗ | 2026-09-27 | 500 | lv | D +2.6 |
| Marist University ↗ | 2026-09-27 | 1298 | rv | D +8.0 |
| Quantus Insights ↗ | 2026-09-23 | 695 | lv | D +0.4 |
| Trafalgar Group ↗ | 2026-09-16 | 1085 | lv | D +3.9 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-09-10 | 1000 | lv | D +3.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage ↗ | 2026-09-09 | 1200 | lv | D +5.4 |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners ↗ | 2026-08-31 | 504 | lv | D +10.0 |
| Abacus Data ↗ | 2026-08-28 | 306 | lv | D +5.0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗ | 2026-08-10 | 1008 | rv | D +8.0 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every hour; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN OHIO
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Ohio bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news
Candidate records & policy profiles
Jon Husted · Sherrod Brown · Bill Redpath · Greg Levy · Stephen Faris · John Hawkins
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.