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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
Oklahoma Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.2.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
>99%R win probability
R +22.4Projected margin
1Qualifying polls
Jim Priest (D) / Kevin Hern (R).
80% margin interval: -30.5 to -14.3 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2022.
Oklahoma Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Hargrave ↗ | 2026-08-06 | 500 | rv | R +21.0 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every hour; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN OKLAHOMA
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Oklahoma bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news
Candidate records & policy profiles
Kevin Hern · N'Kiyla Thomas · Sevier White · Ron Meinhardt · Curtis Stinnett
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.