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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
Rhode Island Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.2.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
>99%D win probability
D +25.5Projected margin
4Qualifying polls
Jack Reed (D) / Raymond McKay (R).
80% margin interval: 18.9 to 32.0 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2024.
Rhode Island Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College ↗ | 2026-10-11 | 800 | lv | D +33.7 |
| Embold Research ↗ | 2026-10-08 | 815 | lv | D +23.0 |
| University of New Hampshire ↗ | 2026-09-21 | 595 | lv | D +20.0 |
| University of New Hampshire ↗ | 2026-08-24 | 722 | lv | D +20.0 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every hour; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN RHODE ISLAND
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Rhode Island bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news
Candidate records & policy profiles
Jack Reed · Ray McKay · Michael Bahry
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.