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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
South Carolina Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.2.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
71%R win probability
R +2.5Projected margin
12Qualifying polls
Annie Andrews (D) / Darline Graham (R).
80% margin interval: -8.4 to 3.4 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2022.
South Carolina Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group ↗ | 2026-11-01 | 1091 | lv | R +2.0 |
| Patinkin Research Strategies ↗ | 2026-10-29 | 500 | lv | D +5.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University ↗ | 2026-10-26 | 707 | lv | R +0.7 |
| Targoz Market Research ↗ | 2026-10-25 | 895 | lv | R +1.0 |
| East Carolina University Center for Survey Research ↗ | 2026-10-24 | 955 | lv | R +3.9 |
| Impact Research ↗ | 2026-10-21 | 800 | lv | D +1.0 |
| Trafalgar Group ↗ | 2026-10-18 | 1095 | lv | R +3.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage ↗ | 2026-09-29 | 1200 | lv | R +1.0 |
| Trafalgar Group ↗ | 2026-09-25 | 1087 | lv | R +1.1 |
| InsiderAdvantage ↗ | 2026-09-09 | 1200 | lv | R +1.9 |
| Abacus Data ↗ | 2026-08-28 | 306 | lv | R +13.0 |
| Impact Research ↗ | 2026-08-24 | 700 | lv | D +0.0 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every hour; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN SOUTH CAROLINA
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
South Carolina bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news
Candidate records & policy profiles
Darline Graham · Annie Andrews · Mark Hackett · Kasie Whitener
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.