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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
South Dakota Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.2.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
95%R win probability
R +11.3Projected margin
10Qualifying polls
Brian Bengs (I) / Mike Rounds (R).
80% margin interval: -20.3 to -2.3 points. Positive values favor the I candidate. Prior result year: 2022.
South Dakota Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concord Public Opinion Partners ↗ | 2026-10-26 | 448 | lv | I +2.0 |
| Emerson College ↗ | 2026-10-21 | 803 | lv | R +8.0 |
| Quantus Insights ↗ | 2026-10-19 | 657 | lv | R +22.1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies ↗ | 2026-10-16 | 500 | lv | R +17.0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. ↗ | 2026-10-14 | 500 | lv | R +19.0 |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners ↗ | 2026-10-08 | 400 | lv | I +1.0 |
| Zenith Research ↗ | 2026-09-27 | 500 | lv | R +6.0 |
| Public Policy Polling ↗ | 2026-09-09 | 629 | rv | R +3.0 |
| Lake Research Partners ↗ | 2026-08-30 | 500 | lv | I +10.0 |
| Impact Research ↗ | 2026-08-17 | 500 | lv | I +0.0 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every hour; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
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