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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
South Dakota Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.1.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
70%R win probability
R +3.7Projected margin
3Qualifying polls
Brian Bengs (I) / Mike Rounds (R).
80% margin interval: -12.7 to 5.3 points. Positive values favor the I candidate. Prior result year: 2022.
South Dakota Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling ↗ | 2026-09-09 | 629 | rv | R +3.0 |
| Impact Research ↗ | 2026-08-17 | 500 | lv | I +0.0 |
| Public Opinion Strategies ↗ | 2026-07-09 | 500 | lv | R +23.0 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every four hours; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
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Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
South Dakota bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news