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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
Tennessee Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.2.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
>99%R win probability
R +21.2Projected margin
2Qualifying polls
Marquita Bradshaw (D) / Bill Hagerty (R).
80% margin interval: -28.5 to -13.9 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2024.
Tennessee Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research ↗ | 2026-11-02 | 716 | lv | R +20.0 |
| Targoz Market Research ↗ | 2026-08-26 | 607 | lv | R +25.0 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every hour; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
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Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Tennessee bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news
Candidate records & policy profiles
Bill Hagerty · Marquita Bradshaw · Tharon Chandler · Andrew Gerena · Jeremy Dean Hearn · Robert Jones · James Macon III · Yoshi Matthews · David Sutman Jr. · Catherine "Barcy" Whitson
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.