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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
Texas Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.2.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
69%D win probability
D +2.2Projected margin
53Qualifying polls
James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R).
80% margin interval: -3.5 to 7.8 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2024.
Texas Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. ↗ | 2026-11-02 | 450 | lv | D +3.0 |
| Emerson College ↗ | 2026-11-01 | 500 | lv | D +1.4 |
| Trafalgar Group ↗ | 2026-11-01 | 1089 | lv | R +0.6 |
| AtlasIntel ↗ | 2026-11-01 | 1678 | a | D +5.9 |
| The New York Times/Siena University ↗ | 2026-11-01 | 1215 | lv | D +7.1 |
| Kreate Strategies ↗ | 2026-10-30 | 900 | lv | D +3.0 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-10-29 | 2138 | lv | D +4.0 |
| Quantus Insights ↗ | 2026-10-28 | 1207 | lv | R +1.0 |
| ActiVote ↗ | 2026-10-28 | 400 | lv | D +4.2 |
| A2 Insights ↗ | 2026-10-27 | 631 | lv | D +3.0 |
| CNN/SSRS ↗ | 2026-10-27 | 923 | lv | D +6.0 |
| Data for Progress ↗ | 2026-10-26 | 712 | lv | D +4.0 |
| YouGov Blue ↗ | 2026-10-26 | 1000 | lv | D +8.0 |
| Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center ↗ | 2026-10-25 | 2000 | lv | D +2.0 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-10-21 | 1000 | rv | D +5.0 |
| ActiVote ↗ | 2026-10-21 | 400 | lv | D +2.0 |
| Verasight ↗ | 2026-10-20 | 601 | lv | D +2.4 |
| Emerson College ↗ | 2026-10-19 | 1000 | lv | D +1.5 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗ | 2026-10-19 | 1398 | lv | D +0.0 |
| Slingshot Strategies ↗ | 2026-10-18 | 969 | lv | D +4.0 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-10-16 | 1458 | lv | D +2.0 |
| Cor Strategies ↗ | 2026-10-15 | 1409 | lv | D +4.0 |
| University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs ↗ | 2026-10-14 | 2000 | lv | D +2.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage ↗ | 2026-10-14 | 1200 | lv | R +0.4 |
| ActiVote ↗ | 2026-10-14 | 400 | lv | D +3.8 |
| New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group ↗ | 2026-10-13 | 934 | lv | D +5.0 |
| Marist University ↗ | 2026-10-11 | 1196 | lv | D +2.0 |
| Quantus Insights ↗ | 2026-10-11 | 854 | lv | R +0.5 |
| ReconMR/Siena Research Institute ↗ | 2026-10-08 | 617 | lv | D +4.0 |
| Trafalgar Group ↗ | 2026-10-08 | 1086 | lv | D +3.5 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-10-05 | 861 | lv | D +3.0 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-10-05 | 3623 | lv | D +6.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena University ↗ | 2026-09-30 | 615 | lv | D +5.7 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov ↗ | 2026-09-28 | 850 | lv | D +0.0 |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy ↗ | 2026-09-28 | 800 | lv | D +3.0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗ | 2026-09-28 | 881 | lv | D +2.0 |
| Pulse Decision Science ↗ | 2026-09-27 | 800 | lv | R +3.0 |
| Big Data Poll ↗ | 2026-09-26 | 698 | lv | D +1.9 |
| Stratus Intelligence ↗ | 2026-09-24 | 865 | lv | D +0.0 |
| Slingshot Strategies ↗ | 2026-09-22 | 1007 | lv | D +5.0 |
| Marist University ↗ | 2026-09-20 | 1139 | rv | D +6.0 |
| Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center ↗ | 2026-09-19 | 1800 | lv | D +1.0 |
| Trafalgar Group ↗ | 2026-09-17 | 1079 | lv | D +1.2 |
| Emerson College ↗ | 2026-09-14 | 1000 | lv | D +1.0 |
| ReconMR/Siena Research Institute ↗ | 2026-09-11 | 614 | lv | D +6.0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. ↗ | 2026-09-10 | 625 | lv | D +3.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage ↗ | 2026-09-09 | 1200 | lv | D +1.5 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-09-04 | 1000 | rv | D +5.0 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research ↗ | 2026-09-01 | 895 | lv | D +4.0 |
| Overton Insights ↗ | 2026-08-26 | 1167 | lv | D +0.0 |
| Slingshot Strategies ↗ | 2026-08-24 | 1000 | lv | D +6.0 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 1200 | rv | D +3.0 |
| Emerson College ↗ | 2026-08-10 | 1000 | lv | R +1.0 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every hour; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
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Beyond this election
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Texas bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news
Candidate records & policy profiles
James Talarico · Ken Paxton · Ted Brown · Avery Ayers · Zul Mohamed · Jade Simmons · Brad Hall
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.