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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. SENATE · GENERAL ELECTION
Texas Senate forecast
2026 polling and experimental race projection.
Snapshot: · Model baseline-1.1.0
Experimental probabilities are not a validated guarantee. Candidate names reflect selected polling matchups, not an official ballot roster.
Race at a glance
69%D win probability
D +2.2Projected margin
22Qualifying polls
James Talarico (D) / Ken Paxton (R).
80% margin interval: -3.6 to 8.0 points. Positive values favor the D candidate. Prior result year: 2024.
Texas Senate polls
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slingshot Strategies ↗ | 2026-09-22 | 1007 | lv | D +5.0 |
| Marist University ↗ | 2026-09-20 | 1139 | rv | D +6.0 |
| Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center ↗ | 2026-09-19 | 1800 | lv | D +1.0 |
| Trafalgar Group ↗ | 2026-09-17 | 1079 | lv | D +1.2 |
| Emerson College ↗ | 2026-09-14 | 1000 | lv | D +1.0 |
| SoCal Strategies ↗ | 2026-09-13 | 649 | lv | D +5.0 |
| ReconMR/Siena Research Institute ↗ | 2026-09-11 | 614 | lv | D +6.0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. ↗ | 2026-09-10 | 625 | lv | D +3.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage ↗ | 2026-09-09 | 1200 | lv | D +1.5 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-09-04 | 1000 | rv | D +5.0 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research ↗ | 2026-09-01 | 895 | lv | D +4.0 |
| Overton Insights ↗ | 2026-08-26 | 1167 | lv | D +0.0 |
| Slingshot Strategies ↗ | 2026-08-24 | 1000 | lv | D +6.0 |
| YouGov ↗ | 2026-08-13 | 1200 | rv | D +3.0 |
| Emerson College ↗ | 2026-08-10 | 1000 | lv | R +1.0 |
| YouGov Blue ↗ | 2026-07-31 | 1001 | lv | D +3.0 |
| Wedgewood Polls ↗ | 2026-07-31 | 800 | lv | D +2.0 |
| ReconMR/Siena Research Institute ↗ | 2026-07-30 | 619 | lv | D +4.0 |
| Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center ↗ | 2026-07-30 | 1200 | lv | D +2.0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research ↗ | 2026-07-27 | 1006 | rv | D +3.0 |
| Slingshot Strategies ↗ | 2026-07-17 | 1048 | lv | D +5.0 |
| A2 Insights ↗ | 2026-06-28 | 618 | lv | D +2.3 |
Polling source: The New York Times, CC BY 4.0, independently filtered and aggregated by DutyStation. Historical results: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Polling updates every four hours; failed updates retain this snapshot.
Read the full Senate methodology and validation limits ↗ · Download source-linked forecast
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