Civics & public records
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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. HOUSE
Arizona House districts
Explore all 9 congressional districts in Arizona.
Snapshot: · Model house-0.1.1
9 of 9 districts have comparable two-party baselines. District projections are experimental and uncalibrated. Unmodeled districts are not toss-ups. Full House-control odds are withheld.
| District | Margin | Win probability | Polls | Data basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-01 | D +6.9 | D 81% | 2 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| AZ-02 | D +2.6 | D 61% | 2 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| AZ-03 | D +57.3 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| AZ-04 | D +19.2 | D 97% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| AZ-05 | R +9.0 | R 80% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| AZ-06 | D +9.2 | D 81% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| AZ-07 | D +38.7 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| AZ-08 | R +1.2 | R 54% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| AZ-09 | R +18.8 | R 96% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
AZ-01: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +3.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Amish Shah / Jay Feely. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keating Research, Inc. ↗ | 2026-10-28 | 500 | lv | D +4.7 |
| FirstStrategic Communications and Public Affairs ↗ | 2026-10-01 | 400 | rv | D +3.3 |
AZ-02: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +9.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Jonathan Nez / Eli Crane. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College ↗ | 2026-10-14 | 345 | lv | D +2.0 |
| GBAO ↗ | 2026-08-24 | 500 | lv | R +2.2 |
AZ-03: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +45.5. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
AZ-04: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +7.4. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
AZ-05: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +20.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
AZ-06: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +2.6. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
AZ-07: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +26.9. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
AZ-08: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +13.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
AZ-09: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +30.6. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
Sources: House Clerk official 2024 results, Census congressional district data, and NYT polling (CC BY 4.0; independently modified).
Explore the interactive House map ↗ · House methodology and limitations
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN ARIZONA
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Arizona bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news
Candidate records & policy profiles
Jay Feely · Amish Shah · Monica Alponte · Eli Crane · Jonathan Nez · Curtis Goodwin · Yassamin Ansari · David Redkey · Alan Aversa · Jacob Parkman · Greg Stanton · Zuhdi Jasser · Tisha Benoit · Steve Sanders · Mark Lamb · Elizabeth Lee · Juan Ciscomani · JoAnna Mendoza · Gary Swing · Jereme Peters · Michael Dorland · Adelita Grijalva · Daniel Butierez · Abe Hamadeh · Bernadette Greene-Placentia · Paul Gosar · Dani Sterbinsky · William Perry
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.