Civics & public records
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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. HOUSE
Kentucky House districts
Explore all 6 congressional districts in Kentucky.
Snapshot: · Model house-0.1.1
4 of 6 districts have comparable two-party baselines. District projections are experimental and uncalibrated. Unmodeled districts are not toss-ups. Full House-control odds are withheld.
| District | Margin | Win probability | Polls | Data basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KY-01 | R +37.6 | R >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| KY-02 | R +34.4 | R >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| KY-03 | D +35.7 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| KY-04 | Not modeled | Unavailable | 0 | No two-party 2024 contest |
| KY-05 | Not modeled | Unavailable | 0 | No two-party 2024 contest |
| KY-06 | R +9.6 | R 87% | 4 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
KY-01: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +49.4. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
KY-02: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +46.2. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
KY-03: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +23.9. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
KY-04: district evidence
No two-party 2024 contest. Census 120th Congress district layer.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
KY-05: district evidence
No two-party 2024 contest. Census 120th Congress district layer.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
KY-06: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +26.1. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Zach Dembo / Ralph Alvarado. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting Team ↗ | 2026-10-05 | 606 | lv | D +7.0 |
| Change Research ↗ | 2026-10-05 | 524 | lv | D +10.6 |
| Lake Research Partners ↗ | 2026-10-04 | 400 | lv | D +3.2 |
| GQR ↗ | 2026-09-30 | 401 | lv | D +6.3 |
Sources: House Clerk official 2024 results, Census congressional district data, and NYT polling (CC BY 4.0; independently modified).
Explore the interactive House map ↗ · House methodology and limitations
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN KENTUCKY
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Kentucky bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news
Candidate records & policy profiles
James Comer · John "Drew" Williams · Brett Guthrie · Megan Wingfield · Tom Loecken · Morgan McGarvey · Maria Teresa Rodriguez · Ed Gallrein · Melissa Strange · Jeremy Todd · Peter Williams · Hal Rogers · Ned Pillersdorf · Gerardo Serrano · Mikel Wein · Billy Ray Wilson · Ralph Alvarado · Zach Dembo · Pete Lynch · Jay Bowman · Robert Quigley
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.