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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. HOUSE
Montana House districts
Explore all 2 congressional districts in Montana.
Snapshot: · Model house-0.1.1
2 of 2 districts have comparable two-party baselines. District projections are experimental and uncalibrated. Unmodeled districts are not toss-ups. Full House-control odds are withheld.
| District | Margin | Win probability | Polls | Data basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT-01 | D +4.6 | D 77% | 7 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| MT-02 | R +20.7 | R 99% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
MT-01: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +7.9. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Sam Forstag / Aaron Flint. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College ↗ | 2026-11-01 | 311 | lv | D +0.3 |
| Montana State University Billings ↗ | 2026-10-21 | 287 | a | D +21.0 |
| Emerson College ↗ | 2026-10-14 | 329 | lv | D +4.2 |
| American Pulse Research & Polling ↗ | 2026-09-24 | 314 | lv | R +0.5 |
| Impact Research ↗ | 2026-09-23 | 500 | lv | D +3.3 |
| Public Policy Polling ↗ | 2026-09-10 | 536 | rv | R +4.3 |
| Rutgers-Eagleton ↗ | 2026-09-07 | 375 | rv | R +1.2 |
MT-02: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +32.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Brian Miller / Troy Downing. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana State University Billings ↗ | 2026-10-21 | 350 | a | R +23.4 |
Sources: House Clerk official 2024 results, Census congressional district data, and NYT polling (CC BY 4.0; independently modified).
Explore the interactive House map ↗ · House methodology and limitations
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN MONTANA
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
Montana bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news
Candidate records & policy profiles
Aaron Flint · Sam Forstag · Nick Sheedy · Troy Downing · Brian Miller · Patrick McCracken · Michael Eisenhauer
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.