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Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. HOUSE
New York House districts
Explore all 26 congressional districts in New York.
Snapshot: · Model house-0.1.0
26 of 26 districts have comparable two-party baselines. District projections are experimental and uncalibrated. Unmodeled districts are not toss-ups. Full House-control odds are withheld.
| District | Margin | Win probability | Polls | Data basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY-01 | D +0.4 | D 52% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-02 | R +8.7 | R 79% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-03 | D +14.4 | D 91% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-04 | D +13.2 | D 89% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-05 | D +56.7 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-06 | D +34.3 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-07 | D +67.1 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-08 | D +61.6 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-09 | D +59.4 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-10 | D +70.9 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-11 | R +17.3 | R 95% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-12 | D +70.9 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-13 | D +70.9 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-14 | D +49.3 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-15 | D +67.6 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-16 | D +54.0 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-17 | D +3.8 | D 65% | 2 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-18 | D +25.0 | D >99% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-19 | D +13.1 | D 89% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-20 | D +33.1 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-21 | R +10.8 | R 91% | 4 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-22 | D +20.0 | D 97% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-23 | R +20.7 | R 97% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-24 | R +20.5 | R 97% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-25 | D +32.5 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-26 | D +41.2 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
NY-01: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +10.4. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-02: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +19.5. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-03: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +3.6. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-04: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +2.3. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-05: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +45.9. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-06: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +23.4. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-07: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +56.2. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-08: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +50.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-09: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +48.5. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-10: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +69.2. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-11: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +28.2. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-12: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +61.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-13: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +67.1. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-14: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +38.4. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-15: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +56.7. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-16: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +43.2. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-17: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +6.4. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Cait Conley / Mike Lawler. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient ↗ | 2026-07-22 | 1292 | lv | R +5.3 |
| FM3 Research ↗ | 2026-07-01 | 509 | lv | D +6.2 |
NY-18: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +14.3. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Pat Ryan / Jackie Auringer. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group ↗ | 2026-07-26 | 500 | lv | D +15.2 |
NY-19: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +2.2. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-20: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +22.3. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-21: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +24.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Blake Gendebien / Anthony Constantino. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling ↗ | 2026-09-10 | 557 | rv | R +5.5 |
| Impact Research ↗ | 2026-09-02 | 500 | lv | R +3.3 |
| J.L. Partners ↗ | 2026-08-17 | 500 | lv | R +14.0 |
| SurveyUSA ↗ | 2026-08-08 | 612 | lv | D +4.9 |
NY-22: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +9.1. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-23: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +31.6. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-24: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +31.3. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-25: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +21.6. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-26: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +30.3. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
Sources: House Clerk official 2024 results, Census congressional district data, and NYT polling (CC BY 4.0; independently modified).
Explore the interactive House map ↗ · House methodology and limitations
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Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
New York bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news