Civics & public records
Follow legislation, recorded votes, representatives, and state government through Sailor Bob Civics.
Explore Civics ↗2026 U.S. HOUSE
New York House districts
Explore all 26 congressional districts in New York.
Snapshot: · Model house-0.1.1
26 of 26 districts have comparable two-party baselines. District projections are experimental and uncalibrated. Unmodeled districts are not toss-ups. Full House-control odds are withheld.
| District | Margin | Win probability | Polls | Data basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY-01 | D +1.4 | D 55% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-02 | R +7.7 | R 77% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-03 | D +15.4 | D 93% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-04 | D +14.1 | D 91% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-05 | D +57.7 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-06 | D +35.2 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-07 | D +68.0 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-08 | D +62.6 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-09 | D +60.3 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-10 | D +71.8 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-11 | R +16.4 | R 94% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-12 | D +71.8 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-13 | D +71.8 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-14 | D +50.2 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-15 | D +68.5 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-16 | D +55.0 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-17 | D +4.7 | D 69% | 2 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-18 | D +25.7 | D >99% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-19 | D +14.0 | D 91% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-20 | D +34.1 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-21 | R +9.1 | R 87% | 6 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-22 | D +20.9 | D 98% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-23 | R +19.8 | R 97% | 1 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-24 | R +19.5 | R 97% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-25 | D +33.5 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
| NY-26 | D +42.2 | D >99% | 0 | Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline |
NY-01: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +10.4. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-02: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +19.5. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-03: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +3.6. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-04: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +2.3. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-05: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +45.9. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-06: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +23.4. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-07: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +56.2. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-08: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +50.8. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-09: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +48.5. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-10: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +69.2. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-11: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +28.2. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-12: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +61.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-13: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +67.1. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-14: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +38.4. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-15: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +56.7. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-16: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +43.2. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-17: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +6.4. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Cait Conley / Mike Lawler. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates ↗ | 2026-09-30 | 400 | lv | R +3.1 |
| Emerson College ↗ | 2026-09-29 | 400 | lv | D +2.5 |
NY-18: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +14.3. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Pat Ryan / Jackie Auringer. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling ↗ | 2026-09-30 | 561 | rv | D +19.5 |
NY-19: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +2.2. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-20: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +22.3. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-21: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +24.0. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Blake Gendebien / Anthony Constantino. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena University ↗ | 2026-10-06 | 496 | lv | D +4.5 |
| Impact Research ↗ | 2026-10-04 | 500 | lv | R +3.2 |
| Public Policy Polling ↗ | 2026-09-10 | 557 | rv | R +5.5 |
| Impact Research ↗ | 2026-09-02 | 500 | lv | R +3.3 |
| J.L. Partners ↗ | 2026-08-17 | 500 | lv | R +14.0 |
| SurveyUSA ↗ | 2026-08-08 | 612 | lv | D +4.9 |
NY-22: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +9.1. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-23: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +31.6. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
Latest observed polling matchup: Aaron Gies / Nick Langworthy. This is not an official nominee roster.
| Pollster / source | End date | Sample | Population | Two-party margin (normalized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling ↗ | 2026-09-23 | 626 | lv | R +19.5 |
NY-24: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: R +31.3. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-25: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +21.6. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
NY-26: district evidence
Comparable 2024 party-vote baseline. Census 120th Congress district layer.
2024 two-party result: D +30.3. This historical result is a baseline, not a current prediction.
No qualifying local polls are included in this snapshot. No polling observations are invented.
Sources: House Clerk official 2024 results, Census congressional district data, and NYT polling (CC BY 4.0; independently modified).
Explore the interactive House map ↗ · House methodology and limitations
FOLLOW GOVERNMENT IN NEW YORK
Beyond this election
Follow state legislation and the public record alongside these federal election projections.
New York bills & legislative records ↗ · Federal civic tools · Policy & Congress news
Candidate records & policy profiles
Nick LaLota · Chris Gallant · Andrew Garbarino · Pat Halpin · Tom Suozzi · Mike LiPetri · Laura Gillen · Jeanine Driscoll · Blay Tarnoff · Gregory Meeks · George Marsh · Grace Meng · Joseph Chou · Claire Valdez · Melvin Rivera · Priscilla Ghaznavi · Hakeem Jeffries · Lewis Mizrahi · Sahir Ahsan · Yvette Clarke · Joel Azumah · Brad Lander · Jennifer Moore · Nicole Malliotakis · Mike DeCillis · Micah Lasher · Caroline Shinkle · Wilneida Negron · Karen Ortiz · Darializa Avila Chevalier · Jomo Manuel Williams · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · Diamant Hysenaj · Ritchie Torres · Stylo Sapaskis · Gonzalo Duran · Andre Easton · Jose Vega · George Latimer · Joe Cinquemani · Mike Lawler · Cait Conley · Pat Ryan · Jackie Auringer · Josh Riley · Peter Oberacker · Paul Tonko · Ralph Ambrosio · Anthony Constantino · Blake Gendebien · John Mannion · Kailee Buller · Nick Langworthy · Aaron Gies · Claudia Tenney · Alissa Ellman · Joe Morelle · Virginia McIntyre · Tim Kennedy · Dennis Hannon
Selected coverage; see each profile’s review scope and sources.